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« Election Scorecard Donald Trump vs Hillary Clinton: Aug 1, 2016 (plus my updated forecast) | Main | Peak Trump - Manafort No Longer In Charge - Trump Has Removed Only Sane Leader He Had »

August 11, 2016

Comments

Wayne Borean


VP candidate Kaine and Voting Rights

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/tim-kaine-voting-rights-battleground-states-226887

This is a huge issue. The United States are not united like any other Industrialized country. There are 53 different electoral systems, with totally different rules. States with Republican governors have introduced a range of voter ID laws. These laws would be unnecessary anywhere else, because everyone has photo ID. In many countries young child carry passports.

paul

@Winter

> Maybe the exit story wasn't that outlandish:
> GOP Operatives Aren't So Sure That Trump Even Wants To Win
> http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-lose_us_57b2033de4b007c36e4f91f2

A quote from article "Is it possible that he is trying to loose?". That kind of smell of money scam insinuation.

Wayne Borean


A Hundred Days of Donald Trump

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/donald-trump-100-days-226850

Winter

@Wayne
100 days, never a dull moment. Books will be written about each day.

cornelius

The Republican Latinos of Florida has publicly endorsed Clinton:
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/republican-latinos-swing-state-florida-publicly-support-hillary-clinton-n631436

And Trump? He is planning a rally in Lansing, Michigan. Why? Because recent public surveys that show him trailing by 10% in Michigan are skewed against him.
http://www.clickondetroit.com/news/donald-trump-to-speak-friday-in-lansing-suburb

Eduardo M

Off-topic: why microsoft lost the mobile wars:

https://medium.com/@christianhern/the-war-microsoft-should-have-won-65d836aa2358#.cak2e57z2

cornelius

Here is Trump's likely speech when he will "concede" the election.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2016/08/16/the-speech-donald-trump-could-give-if-he-loses-the-election-but-refuses-to-concede/?utm_term=.f7e5cde3cfe2
I still think it can be improved upon. Like for example there is no mention of the second amendment people (it would've fit perfectly at the end when Trump incites the crowd to march "non-violently" to Washington).
OK Tomi, how about you write another version of his "conceding" speech on your blog? Do you feel inspired? I know it is not an original idea, it doesn't matter. I still think it would be fun. I'll help if I can think of something funny.

Winter

Tomi, wouldn't this be a dream job? To play The Donald in Hillary's debate prep?

Donald Trump Calls His Own Plans “Extreme”
http://time.com/4453779/donald-trump-calls-his-own-plans-extreme/

Winter

Sorry, wrong link on clipboard:

Clinton preps for Trump’s Lewinsky attack
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/hillary-clinton-prepare-trump-debate-lewinsky-227033

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

After so many weeks of total Trumpavalanche, we seem to be at a summer doldrums moment. Trump isn't actually starting new feuds with anyone and nothing outrageous is in the press. It seems.. bizarrely quiet.

But the polls don't sleep. Florida, first poll with Hillary up by 9 - up by NINE in the tightest battleground state from last cycle. And this is a four-way poll. Maybe its an outlier, we'll see, but the trend is towards Hillary and the polling is getting brutal in states where Hillary has big TV ad campaigns on the air and Trump obviously is silent. (Donald J Trump: Political Genius)

Texas finds Hillary down by 6. It would be a big lift and a very expensive state but also Ted Cruz is clearly not coming to support Trump and the Libertarian ticket could well siphon votes away from Trump too.

Then POTUS. Obama is up by his biggest positive rating by RCP average since his re-election bounce, from February 2013. And his status is 4 points above where he was in the summer of 2012 when Obama himself was on the ticket and running for re-election. In fact, his current polling is above what he had on ELECTION DAY of 2012. Thats a pretty awesome 'partner' for Hillary to have in this race.. The only times Obama was more liked than right now, is the two election bounces, and very briefly when they caught Osama Bin Laden. And Obama just keeps rising in the polling (partly helped by how horrible Trump seems to most voters, they start to appreciate Obama more)

But apart from that, I don't see much going on. Giuliani haha said there were no terrorist attacks before Obama, conveniently forgetting the Sept 11 of 2001 attacks that occurred during HIS time as Mayor of New York City and when W Bush was President. But this is Giuliani nonsense, nobody votes for Trump vs Hillary based on what Giuliani says.. Still, with Manafort's lies, Katrina Pierson's wild fantasy mind, and now Giuliani, its seems like the Trump Campaign has an internal contest for who gets to make the biggest whopper lie and get away with it..

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

So FINALLY there is the first TV ad buy by Trump. He hits 5 states, we don't know how big his ad buy is, but the states are Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. Romney lost 4 of those 5 only winning NC. That Trump spends money to defend NC, means Hillary is FAR ahead in the race. That Trump only does these 5, shows he knows Colorado is lost, Nevada and New Mexico would be futile cases. Its a bit weird he isn't trying for Iowa or New Hampshire but those are too small to alone swing the election.

So Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania make sense 'on offense' as the tightest three states Trump HAS to win - plus he has to hold NC. Any one of those four states stolen by Hillary means Trump has lost the election. But before we talk about that, lets talk about Virginia.

What the f*ck is he doing.

Again? Virginia? Tim Kaine's home state? A state where Hillary is so far ahead, both she and her SuperPAC have stopped advertising already. Virginia? F*cking Virginia? Trump is up wasting is meager cash on a TV ad buy in Virginia? He's a moron!

RCP has Trump down by TEN POINTS in Virginia already (in the 2-way race) and 10.3% in the four-way race !!! Trump is LOSING THE MILITARY vote, something no Republican has ever lost in Virginia. He's utterly going to lose that state. He's a moron to waste his money there. But good luck, Mr Political Genius. Please do spend money in Virginia.

Ok, rest of those four? Hillary is also up in all of those four of course. Trump is not putting money into any of his other wishful-thinking states (but he's AGAIN wasting his TIME, now he's in Michigan? and Wisconsin? states he is going to lose. He should send Pence to go there, and Trump should be in these 4 states that will decide the election). So yeah, whats RCP saying about the 'real race'

Florida 4 way Hillary up by 4.0%
Ohio 4 way Hillary up by 2.2%
Pennsylvania 4 way Hillary up by 9.2%
North Carolina 4 way Hillary up by 4.3%

Thats the race. Trump has to win all 4 states or he's not the President. He is so far down in Pennsylvania that Hillary's SuperPAC has now stopped advertising there.

Hillary also wins, if she picks up any Romney state of medium size or larger, like Arizona or Georgia. But yeah. Trump has to win these 4 states (and he'll never ever win Virginia). The toughest lift is PA, obviously, and you don't move 9 points in 3 months, unless Trump trounces Hillary in one of the debates. Nothing else moves a race near enough. Trump MIGHT be able to pick up 1-2 points per month through diligent campaigning BUT the track record for Trump is, the more he stays in one state, the more they hate him there (see CA, PA and FL; plus his home state of NY obviously where Hillary beats Trump by 2 to 1)

Ok, we have far more of the reality, of where the 'rubber meets the road'. Where is the battle of TV ads being joined. Expect Hillary soon to take down her TV ads also in Wisconsin, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada. Those states are becoming safe for her. She should now increase her firepower in these 4 states (and not bother with VA) because most of the TV ads originally booked by Hillary were at low prices, and Trump is forced to buy all at high prices, Hillary can afford to now increase her TV ad spend, espeically now by targeting precisely (with Obama's Narwhal system) via cable TV ad buys, to targeted voter groups. I'll be interested to see actual measurements of TV ads on the air, and expect Hillary plus her SuperPAC etc related ads will be about 2x as many as Trump ads.

Also in a few days we'll be getting the July campaign fund-raising totals. Those will be also telling. As we heard before, Trump had a good month but Hillary did better. Lets see what the final numbers are like, in particular as SuperPAC money is added in.

But for all Trump's sillyness about California or New York or Michigan being in play, haha, no. The battle is for four states: Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. Trump has to overcome Hillary's lead in EVERY one of those four states and run the table against her; plus hope Hillary doesn't win anywhere else stealing any state that Romney won like Arizona or Georgia. Its August. We should have this type of 'final map' in mid October. But as increasingly even Republicans can see, Trump is going to lose this election. Question is by how much and what all he takes down with him.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Millard Filmore

Trump is still illegally soliciting money from foreigners ... Crooked Trump.

http://freakoutnation.com/2016/08/trump-campaign-continues-illegal-foreign-fundraising-despite-department-of-justice-complaint/

[...] The Hill reports that Terri Butler, a member of the Australian parliament, received a Trump fundraising email on Aug. 14 just after midnight Australian time. The solicitation email went to Butler’s government email account, asking her to make a campaign contribution to Trump so she could “join the highest ranks of our campaign as an Executive Member.”

winter

@Tomi
"Giuliani haha said there were no terrorist attacks before Obama, conveniently forgetting the Sept 11 of 2001 attacks that occurred during HIS time as Mayor of New York City and when W Bush was President. "

Giuliani said "... didn't have any successful radical Islamic terrorist attack in the US,"

[Tinfoil hat]
Giuliani is in the know. He knows who really were behind those attacks. And he let slip the secret.
[/Tinfoil hat]

Winter

@Tomy
And it is obvious who was behind 9/11: Obama and Hillary. Expect Katrina Pierson to tell CNN about it.

(An aside, Pierson is a Dutch name. The family delivered bankers and scientists. Streets and museums were named after them.
https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierson_(geslacht)

)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

So here it is, Manafort is now relegated. That is about a week too late but still. Clearly if there were any wheels left on this donkey, they are now falling off.

So now its Ailes and some Breitbart dude and some other media guy who are going to run the Campaign for Trump. The one thing they clearly have managed to do, is force Trump to do a Teleprompter speech (the one in Wisconsin) and to try to speak to minorities. Bwahahahahaha... so yeah, Telepromptered 'sincere' Trump spoke to blacks today, in Wisconsin. In WISCONSIN. Its a state so white, its like Swiss Cheese, but without the Switzerland. They only have 5% blacks in the state. Thats where Trump went to bore is white Nazi crowd about Trump's sudden conversion to black power. Sure. This is the man who was sued in what was then the largest racist federal lawsuit against slum lords (he settled the case). And yeah, Trump who so loves 'the blacks' he demanded five youth would get the DEATH penalty in New York (which doesn't have the death penalty) - five BLACK kids who were later found innocent of that murder they were initially accused of. Trump who wrote in his book that blacks are lazy. That Trump. The guy who insisted the first black President is an imposter, who isn't born in the USA. I think this will go well - in generating fresh laughter out of the blacks.

But sorry, I digress. Yes, Manafort now out of the power position. And just like how Manafort's arrival to replace Lewandowski - only two months ago haha - resulted in a 'pivot' attempt to get Trump to be serious - now these new managers as a team, have convinced Trump to put away Twitter, to use a Teleprompter, and to try to speak nicely to blacks. Lets see how many days (or hours) this holds.

And obviously its way way WAY too little and too late. But Trump seems to understand, he can't win the way he was going. So yeah. Lets throw all that work away, lets start afresh. Did I mention its utterly foolish to spend a dime advertising in Virginia (hahahaha) or that he's an idiot for campaigning in Michigan and Wisconsin, if he only shows ads in Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Virginia. You campaign in LESS states than you advertise in, not the other way around. Money you can get more of (ie buy TV ad time) but Candidate Time is finite. And Donald J Trump: Political Genius, is still wasting his most valuable resource. Haha. I wonder how the white supremacists felt today in Wisconsin when Trump got all weird and included a love letter to the blacks. What the funk is going on?

Well, I did suggest Manafort's time was done after the mess of the Convention. Took Trump a week too long in my mind, to pull the trigger, but for all that bravado of his TV show, in reality, he has a really hard time saying 'you're fired' haha. He is such a total fraud.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

PS

Just to be clear. A Campaign Manager firing (or relegation) is the MOST severe sign that a campaign is in total disarray and trouble. In need of a total reset. Of an emergency maneuver. In need of a 'hail Mary pass'. And this is yes, the second fired Campaign Manager in two months. Donald J Trump: Political Genius.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

Wrote a blog about Manafort removed from running the campaign. Expanded on the above comment.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

paul

@Tomi

So Trump's cult has a real name, that is "alt-right" cult.

DEFINITION

"Alt-right" is short for "alternative right," to distinguish the movement from mainstream conservatism. There's no one way to define its ideology, but it is often associated with efforts on the far right to preserve "white identity," oppose multiculturalism and defend "Western values." Adherents say those values are increasingly under attack with the rise of racial minorities in the U.S. and as the left pushes "political correctness." Some adherents sometimes refer to themselves as "Europeanists" or "white nationalists," rejecting the labels of racist and white supremacist. Some want to curb or block immigration to the U.S.; others would remove minorities from the country.


http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/clinton-sees-trump-ties-alt-dystopian-ideology-41639570

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Available for Consulting and Speakerships

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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