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« The Trump Cult Is One Without A Leader. Trump is Only Its Willing Figurehead | Main | Nokia Smartphone Return on Android Starts Already This Christmas »

August 17, 2016

Comments

Millard Filmore

@Winter: They will ride the nation down to destruction even if they win.

sgtrock

You mean, especially if they win, right?

rune

@Eduardo M:
Thanks for that Atlantic link. Nice to see someone really think about the roots of the problem.

However, he stops short of the conclusion that seems inevitable to me: That the very concept of primary elections is broken. It is absurd that a party can end up with a candidate that cares nothing for the party.

It's all well and fine to have rebels, but they should run as independents or establish a new party. Or be forced to compromise with the mainstream of the party that they want to run for.

Of course, the problem is multiplied when there are primaries not only for president, but for candidates at all levels.

I don't know of any other country that has primaries to anywhere near that extent. It appears to be a uniquely American experiment. And it has failed...

Winter

@Millard
Fair. But currently they are facing political death and irrelevance straight in the face. A Clinton presidency will switch the supreme court. That means all voter surpression and gerymandering will be ended. Super pacs will end.

The Republicans will lose big and go down to their demographic minority status. They will be forced to reform which will be the end of most of the current GOP politicians.

It is now or never again. They will destroy the federation if needed.

Winter

@rune
"I don't know of any other country that has primaries to anywhere near that extent. It appears to be a uniquely American experiment. And it has failed..."

Other countries have two rounds (eg, France). The US system is designed to keep the two main parties in power to the exclusion of others.

cornelius

OK, now we know why Trump has canceled those rallies in Nevada and Colorado. Because he wanted to have a rally in Texas. Texas makes much more sense because he gets more supporters there and they are more vocal, more on the same page with him.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/trump-red-state-campaigning-227283

cornelius

Sorry, I forgot to mention the other rally in Mississippi. BTW that makes a lot of sense too.

Winter

@Tomi
"Ok. One possibility is, that Trump is REALLY exhausted, possibly ill. "

That would explain the fixation on Hillaries health. They might want to deflect upcoming news about Trump's health.

cornelius

It seems that the Russians are bent on helping Trump become POTUS. After hacking DNC, now it's NY Times' turn.

https://yro.slashdot.org/story/16/08/23/1831217/fbi-investigating-russian-hack-of-new-york-times-reporters-others

Winter

Texas might not really be in play for the presidency, but maybe Hillary could get some extra house seats?

Reliably Republican Texas Shows Signs of Cracking Under Trump
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-08-23/reliably-republican-texas-shows-signs-of-cracking-under-trump

cornelius

There is a poll that does not appear at RCP and shows Clinton up 14 points! What? 14 points? Ouch!

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/08/23/clinton-trump-florida-rubio-murphy-grayson-senate/89213904/

And another appeared today at RCP. Clinton up 16 points in Virginia. Now we know why she pulled the ads in Virginia.

cornelius

Sorry, forgot to mention the 14 points poll is in Florida.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

Ok Politico reports now about the changes in the travel plan. They are now ending the non-battleground events (lets see if that holds) and shifting to a tight battleground states public speaking schedule (which would be sane).

It seems to suggest that they count Colorado (and likely also Nevada) as lost causes (which would be the correct calculation) and if thats the case, they have to see that Virginia is also hopeless. The campaign does have events scheduled in Florida and Iowa, those makes sense.

So Colorado and Nevada being cut would in that case make sense where the campaign is now making a VERY tight limited focus, where FAR LESS than 10 states are the 'real' battleground.

Separately, Virginia has a poll out with 16 point lead for Hillary.

There is also some gossip that Trump has been taken off a high public speaking frequency because of his horrid lack of preparedness for the debates. So they're cutting his 'play time' speaking to his audiences and forcing Trump to study and prep, for the debates. These two issues are not mutually exclusive, they may be both going on.

The good points about both issues are, that the new management of Trump's campaign IS attempting to win, and Trump IS playing along with that. This suggests Trump is probably not going to quit soon, and if he now acts more 'reasonably' in ways that would not further damage his chances to win, that means also he won't hopefully say too many horrible incendiary things. But if he does actually think he can prep enough to show up at the debate - haha that is what Hillary will love. There is no way Trump will be able to appear competent in that debate. But if Trump believes he has a chance, he might not skip out of the debate.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

cornelius

Clinton is looking to expand the map. Now Missouri seems very competitive.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/24/us/politics/poll-puts-hillary-clinton-neck-and-neck-with-donald-trump-in-missouri.html

We know that Clinton will start spending money in Georgia and Arizona. Now she's adding an office in St. Louis.

grouch

The Squalid Case Against Hillary and Her Emails

The members of Congress involved cannot be sued for defamation, since they are protected by the “Speech and Debate Clause” of the Constitution. But the fact that they are not merely smearing the former secretary of state but are trying to send her to jail on phony charges of perjury and lying to Congress is beyond the pale of dirty politics.

http://www.newsweek.com/squalid-case-against-hillary-and-her-emails-492017

Millard Filmore

@grouch: Sounds vaguely like a Monty Python sketch.

Stolen from http://www.ibras.dk/montypython/episode27.htm (search the page for "Erik Njorl")

Jason Chaffetz: Bailiff, please put Hillary in the perp cage so we can sentence her.

Hillary Clinton: What are the charges?

Jason Chaffetz: (Sigh) Let's get on with this bleeding trial, I've got a Gay Lib meeting at 6 o'clock. Superintendent Lufthansa will you please read the charge.

Superintendent: Is a charge strictly necessary, m'lud?

Trey: (heavy aside) The press is here.

Super: Oh sorry! Right, here we go. You are hereby charged. One, that you did, on or about 11/26, conspire to publicize a London Borough in the course of a BBC saga; two, that you were wilfully and persistently a foreigner; three, that you conspired to do things not normally considered illegal; four, that you were caught in possession of an offensive weapon, viz, the big brown table down at the police station.

Wayne Borean

Heh. Now we know why Hillary is so untrustworthy.

https://otviiiisgrrr8.com/2016/08/22/hillary-completes-ot-iii-at-flag/

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

First, I just wrote a blog earlier today, to join in support of a blogger/journalist of a website who has received a lawsuit threat from Trump, about Melania's history as an Escort. I am supporting the freedom of speech aspect and you may enjoy that blog article.

But on the race overall. We have an interesting phenomenon measured at Reuters Daily Tracking poll (using Likely Voter screen) and as that poll changed its measurements and there are two polls with similar info but one is no longer active, I mean the new version that is active, at this link

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_DS_13/filters/LIKELY:1

So looking at the past month. Hillary has run a relatively flat period, plus/minus within 4 points, lowest at 41% and highest at 45% and slowly grew, so she's now at the top of that trend.

Trump has had a more volatile month, fluctuating between a peak of 39% and low end of 33% so a 6 point fluctuation and going up and down several times in the past month.

You'd think under most normal cases - this is a two-person poll - that the gains and losses of the two should mirror, roughly-speaking. Where Hillary has a peak, Trump should see his lowest polling and vice versa, during any longer period(s).

BUT there is no such correlation. There IS another, interesting one. The bottom lines look at the orange line, not the yellow line. The item 'refused' has a near perfect correlation, of inverse relation, to Trump's line. When Trump has a peak, the Refused line is at its bottom and when Trump is at its bottom, the Refused is at its peak. While the Refused choice isn't as extreme in its swings, a low of 6 to a peak of 11 - its 5 points and almost what Trump does at 6 points. And it mirrors quite very closely indeed.

The REFUSED choice goes up, when Trump polling falls. Those polled refuse to give a choice. Any choice. Then when Trump is no longer as toxic, they tend to come back to Trump. Its not really, that Trump voters are deserting Trump and going to Hillary or the two Third Party candidates (although Hillary has seen very slow-paced but steady gains, a few points) they fluctuate between admitting they'll vote for Trump, and hiding it. Ashamed of liking Trump.

There is a good chance, that in all polling, there is a hidden element worth many points, that is hiding their willingness to vote for Trump. It could be worth several points. If we assigned all Refused votes to Trump, then the Reuters Daily Tracking Poll (Likely Voter Screen) today would be 45% for Hillary and 44% for Trump, essentially a tied race. But because they did not say, and the actual willing voters to express an opinion, the same poll finds Hillary today ahead by 12 points, 45% to 33%.

Now, some of those who refused, probably will not vote at all. The more Trump does continue to be his normal despicable self, these who are so ashamed to say who they will vote for - some of those will not show up. And the more Trump is nasty, the more they will stay away. Also if the polling keeps reporting an ever worsening race, these type of people will not feel too eager to show up to vote.

BUT there is a hidden racist vote that is ashamed to admit, they prefer Trump. It may be as much as 10% of the total voter electorate.

Now. That being said, gosh, the battlegrounds are collapsing for Trump. Virginia? A four-way race has Hillary now up by 16%. 48% to 32% against Trump. Virginia is obviously long gone. But Florida? A poll just out by Leo University of a 4-way race, has Hillary up by 14% in Florida !!! 14 points! If Trump loses Florida the election is over. He has to win all of Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. That Leo poll is not (yet) on RCP pages and its not counted in their averages, but they had the 4-way race as an average of recent polls only with a 4.0% lead for Hillary, but the last poll they included, out a week ago, by Monmouth had Florida already up by 9% for Hillary in the 4-way race. And she's pounding Trump in the local TV ads obviously. Is a 14% poll an outlier, we need to wait to see, but if Florida is even at about 10 points the election is over. Trump won't make up ten points in 75 days.

So even if the national race is hiding plenty of 'stealth' Trump voters, ashamed to admit they like him - the race in the battleground states is utterly collapsing for Trump - thanks to a well-targeted, high-power, consistent attack machine by Hillary and her strong teams in those states.

Again, I'd love to see a clear move now into Georgia and Arizona next for her.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Millard Filmore

OOPS! Trump might not be on the Minnesota ballot.

UPDATE: The #MNGOP failed to elect alternate presidential electors – so the state exec committee did it tonight – without clear authority.
— Michael Brodkorb (@mbrodkorb) August 25, 2016


Again: Process for Trump to be on MN ballot. #MNGOP didn't officially elect alternate electors – trouble ahead? Yep. pic.twitter.com/oaEZQEw3AA
— Michael Brodkorb (@mbrodkorb) August 25, 2016

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/08/gop-fail-donald-trump-not-listed-minnesota-ballot/

cornelius

@Millard Filmore

I am not sure if this situation is good for Clinton. Now the right wing vote is not split anymore between Johnson and Trump. With Clinton damaged, it may happen that a unified right wing vote may help Johnson get Minnesota. With Trump in the race Clinton should get the state. It would've been better if this thing happened in a red state.

The comments to this entry are closed.

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