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« The Trump Cult Is One Without A Leader. Trump is Only Its Willing Figurehead | Main | Nokia Smartphone Return on Android Starts Already This Christmas »

August 17, 2016

Comments

cornelius

A Trump adviser made anti-Semitic remarks. We know that Trump hires the best people, so is this an accident?

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/trump-adviser-accused-anti-semitism

grouch

The lies Trump told this week: from opposing the Iraq war to San Bernardino

Trump shares more false memories from the Iraq war and Middle Eastern politics and welcomes Nato’s ‘new’ terrorism division – which has existed since 2004

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/aug/19/trump-fact-check-iraq-war-san-bernardino-nato

Eduardo M

The trouble with Trump pivoting to the center is it would anger his base, and perhaps that would lead many of them to stay home on election day.

The other problem is the people in the center remember the old Trump, and have no particular reason to believe that if he was elected he would not just revert back to his old ways.

So the upshot of the pivot might just be he would lose present voters and not gain any new ones.

Wayne Borean


@Eduardo M

A Trump pivot to the centre is unlikely to cost any votes. One major Religious Right leader put it like this.

Yes, we might not get everything we want from Donald Trump, but we are guaranteed we'll get nothing we want from Hillary Clinton.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

Ok Manafort resigned. First. 'Resigned' not 'Fired'. Lewandowski was fired. Trump saw all the damage around Putin and Russia related to Manafort - and did NOT fire him. But accepted Manafort's resignation. And Trump still keeps two other pro-Putin staffers. Ok, this means the damage around Russia and Putin will linger, but if Putin makes ANY move - and Ukraine is looking hairy - that will come to haunt Trump. He should have fired Manafort with a fiery angry press conference, if Trump wanted to separate himself from Russia and Putin. So there is a FRESH time bomb ticking in Trump's remaining 80 days.

The Trump 5.0 reset and pivot is now four days of Teleprompter speeches and no wild Twitter Tweets. This is 'let Trump be Trump?' ??? I cannot imagine this holding.

Trump went to Louisiana. Its a predictable campaign political photo-op. It is against the express wishes of the Louisiana Governor. I'd say it was still a good move by Trump because he got there before Obama and Hillary, both of whom were respecting the Governor's request to let the state deal with the floods for two weeks before visiting, because obviously a high profile Presidential level visit means that the distressed state has to put scarce police resources to keep the visit safe. Trump apparently brought six boxes of food. SIX .. not 'pallets' of food, even six pallets of food would have been pretty lousy use of his Boeing 767 which could bring ten times that but six BOXES. Ie Trump brought that little relief to Louisiana that would fit one large suitcase.. Schmuck.

On next days, Trump is speaking in Michigan, Texas and Mississippi. Did someone say he is doing TV ads in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Virginia? Yeah. Trump is campaigning in Michigan, a state he will not win; and Texas and Mississippi, two VERY red states that even Hillary will have a hard time winning even if she gets a big double-digit landslide. But Trump has 80 days left, he wastes 3 of them (4% of his remaining time) in three states which are not the battleground. Plus Louisiana, another red state. Donald J Trump: Political Genius.

Trump's first TV ad is now online. Its on the theme of immgirants taking over America. If it does anything, that TV ad will appeal to Trump's base. It will not help at all to appeal to moderates or any minorities.

Talking of minorities, how's this for irony. For a speech where Trump talks about wanting blacks to vote for him, a brown person in a Trump T-shirt was denied entry to the event. He's a registered Republican. Yeah, Trump asks brown people to vote for him, because 'take a chance!' - but yeah, his rallies - are literally 'no brown people allowed' ??? Make America Great Again. Or as any white racist reads that message: Make America White Again.

Oh, in the policy front, yes, Trump is now willing to deport American citizens who don't conform to his own silly citizenship tests for immigrants. I take it this means Trump will self-deport himself...

The Breitbart guy who is the boss of the new guys who came in, Bannon I think is his name (do we really need to memorize his name, he'll be fired in only four weeks, or less). So we learn more about him. He used the word 'cunt' to describe Republican women. Yeah, for Trump with a gender gap, this sounds like the perfect person to take over Trump's campaign.

So Trump went from someone utterly incompetent Lewandowski, to a Putin stooge Manafort, to now a Nazi White Supremacist Bannon. Trump really 'knows the best people' yes. Again this is the Trump dictionary use of 'best' in the same way as Trump U was a 'university' and six bankruptcies including several casinos, is 'success'. Who is next in line for Trump? I would not be surprised if Trump brings in David Duke by October

Trump's personal campaigning again IS NOT CONSISTENT with a Presidential run. It IS consistent with solidifying his base support. White racist voters. Trump knows he will lose, he is now burning bridges and building the 'revolution' to power his plan, whatever it is, most likely yes a TV network run by Roger Ailes and having Bannon as one of its on-air personalities, as well as Lewandowski (who is still paid by Trump even though he is used by CNN to comment, and whose Non-Disclosure contract with Trump forbids Lewandoswki from talking about anything of the Trump campaign that he might actually know). That woman pollster who is now the nominal 'Campaign Manager' (but second fiddle under Bannon) is another TV talking head. I forget her name now.

BTW several of the Electoral College maps show a hopeless run for Trump. RCP, Sabato and CNN have all now their maps so, that of 'leaning Hillary' states - with leads bigger than 5% - are so solid, she gets to over 270 EV votes even if she loses all 'tossup states'. Under ANY normal conditions the election is already over. Only a seismic event, Hillary health episode or Trump debate victory or some terrorist attack might change the election dynamic. I think it was either Sabato or the RCP guy on a news chat show, who said that if Hillary only wins states where she holds a 9% - NINE PERCENT - lead, she gets 273 EV votes. She can lose every state where she is up by between 0.1% and 8.9% and she still wins the Presidency. The election is already decided.

Oh, and Hillary has just started to run Putin-Trump bromance ads. OUCH. Timing, timing, this is very very VERY dangerous for Trump if Putin makes ANY move in Ukraine.

What Trump is doing is not helping him, BUT its not hurting him either. What Hillary is doing, is skewering Trump. Trump's campaign is not doing the things it HAS TO DO. And yes, even his TV ads are dumb, bad ads, and running partly in the wrong places (many pundits are saying wasting TV ads in Virginia is madness, he'll never win that state). And Trump's personal appearances, Texas, Mississippi and Michigan - idiotic at this stage. Louisiana? May be a wash but it won't win him anything. I think he'll take a lot of flak for going to LA when its Governor asked politicians not to come.

Thats whats up. But Manafort is gone. However, even Manafort's departure is mismanaged by Trump, in a way that leaves Trump vulnerable to more Manafort aftershocks.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

PS

Very relevant point. Lewandowski 'let Trump be Trump' so Trump's natural instinct to pursue every personal slight as a blood feud vendetta against all Republicans was par for the course. That was the old normal up through May.

Then Manafort replaced Lewandowski with 'pivot towards the Republican party' and it was Manafort who convinced Trump to stop feuds with Susana Martinez and John McCain and Paul Ryan and Kelly Ayotte etc. And to invite Ted Cruz to speak even when Cruz was not going to endorse - and to force Trump to not take his choice, Chris Christie, but rather a guy Trump doesn't respect in the least, Mike Pence as his VP. That was all Manafort. The only reason there is something nearing a truce between the GOP leadership and Trump - was Manafort. He's now gone.

Is he replaced by someone who wants peace between Trump and the GOP? No. Breitbart has been the poster child pushing a wedge between Trump and the GOP. If Manafort was able to muffle Trump and calm his instincts to lash out at Republicans, Bannon will rather encourage Trump to go full steam ahead.

The tenuous cease-fire between the GOP leadership and Trump's Campaign will burst into full war again. The point is, those attending Trump's RALLIES will love this - they hate the Washington DC mob as having sold them out. So any vibes that Trump senses, will always push to get more heated in his attacks and rhetoric against Republicans. And now the last sane voice inside his party has departed.

Its like being an alcoholic at a party. You asked your AA friend to come and stand by you, to stop you from drinking. He's left. But what you have instead - is the other friend who is also an alcoholic but never even joined the AA, who is pouring you the drinks.

We should be headed to a wild week or so.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

We will see an interesting test now. There has never been a case before where one side did so much TV advertising and the other side did none. Now that Trump is going up on the air - Politico has a detailed article showing how much he's spending - they only count four states (may be that Trump understood its silly to try for Virginia) but a total of 4 million dollars in TV ads going now on the air in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. As Hillary advertises in more states, and most states do not get intense ads, we can see how this ad effort impacts these 4 states, compared to Trump overall, nationally.

So lets mark this moment in time. RCP 4-way race has nation today at

In Florida 4 way Hillary up 4.0% (polls only August)
In Ohio 4 way Hillary up 2.2% (polls July & August)
In Pennsylvania 4 way Hillary up 8.9% (polls July & August)
In North Carolina 4 way Hillary up 5.5% (only taking the 2 polls of Aug, not the one from June)

Nationally, in 4 way race Hillary is up 5.5% (polls only August)

So now we can see, by all 'reason' whatever changes in polling plus or minus for Trump into the next week or two, they should move more favorably for Hillary outside of those four states, ie the national number should be better than the numbers for those 4 specific states. It could be that Hillary improves or Trump improves (or both) but if TV advertising DOES matter, then those four states, FL, OH, NC and PA should see Trump doing 'better' than the national average, regardless of which 'direction' those polls might go.

It will be an intersting test

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Wayne Borean


A guy I know is writing a series of books about the Time Patrol.

Bob Mayer specializes in Science Fiction and Thrillers. He's a damned good writer. His newest, due out 9/11 this year is about this election...

http://bobmayer.com/possibility-palace.html

Wayne Borean


I've talked about how religion is impacting the election. For those who aren't familiar with the various sects involved, here's a couple of datapoints. Mormons tend to be Conservative in outlook, but they are more like Catholics or Episcopalians.

Evangelicals have a wildly different outlook. First, Mormons:

http://www.sltrib.com/home/4257761-155/mitt-romney-daffy-duck-some-utah?fullpage=1

Mormons at one time were as prejudiced as the rest of White America, but that has changed.

Most people think that Evangelicals got involved with politics because of abortion. That is incorrect, Evangelicals got involved in politics because the I.R.S. wanted to cut tax deductions for segregated Evangelical colleges. The colleges sued the I.R.S. and the case went all the way to the Supreme Court, which ruled against the colleges.

http://www.patheos.com/blogs/daylightatheism/2016/08/the-white-supremacist-roots-of-evangelicalism/

Add to this the slow takeover of parts of the Evangelical movement by Domininists.

http://fiddlrts.blogspot.ca/2016/05/dominionism-and-evangelicalism-part-1.html

As I stated in an earlier post, the Evangelical leaders know they won't get everything they want from Trump. They do know that they'll get nothing from Clinton, so from their point of view the answer is simple. Tell everyone to vote Trump.

Millard Filmore

@Wayne: "Evangelical leaders know they won't get everything they want from Trump. They do know that they'll get nothing from Clinton, so from their point of view the answer is simple. Tell everyone to vote Trump."

Ummm, they think the answer to their problems is to sell their soul for the off chance they might be able to serve their Lord?

Winter

As expected from the start, Manafort is a giant liability:

Inside the fall of Paul Manafort
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/paul-manafort-fall-trump-campaign-227212

(Personally, I think he is a traitor)

grouch

Is Trump sick? The Trump ‘medical letter’ shows every sign of being a fake

[...]
The letter also has problems with sentence structure and major typographical errors, such as the opening line, “To Whom my concern.” Most amusing, it says that his medical examination of Trump has “only positive results.” In medical terms, if the test is positive, it confirms the existence of disease. Is this doctor saying Trump has every medical ailment that could be found in examination? Does he not know the meaning of the word? Or, as I suspect, was the letter written by someone in the Trump campaign?
[...]

http://www.rawstory.com/2016/08/is-trump-sick-the-trump-medical-letter-shows-every-sign-of-being-a-fake/

grouch

http://www.ipetitions.com/petition/does-donald-trump-have-alzheimers

grouch

Judge Orders Written Testimony From Hillary Clinton on Emails

[...]
A spokesman for Mrs. Clinton’s campaign, Brian Fallon, sharply criticized Judicial Watch’s legal campaign, saying it was “a right-wing organization that has been attacking the Clintons since the 1990s.”
[...]

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/20/us/politics/hillary-clinton-judge-emails.html

grouch

Trump’s Empire: a Maze of Debts and Opaque Ties

[...]
But an investigation by The New York Times into the financial maze of Mr. Trump’s real estate holdings in the United States reveals that companies he owns have at least $650 million in debt — twice the amount than can be gleaned from public filings he has made as part of his bid for the White House.
[...]

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/21/us/politics/donald-trump-debt.html

paul

It looks like even the GOP is saying that is basically game over for Trump.


Republicans prep ‘break glass’ emergency plan as Trump tumbles

Losing hope for the White House, the GOP is exploring a plan to cast congressional candidates as a check on President Hillary Clinton.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/republicans-prep-break-glass-emergency-plan-as-trump-tumbles-227217

grouch

What Are Trump And His G.I. Doctor Hiding From Voters?

[...]
Jokes aside about what Trump is full of, or how much he looks forward to being “examined” with a latex glove and KY jelly, men of Trump’s age can suffer from any of those conditions, and should be screened regularly. The fact that a G.I. doctor has been his personal physician for 30 years…it certainly raises a lot of questions.
[...]

http://americannewsx.com/hot-off-the-press/trump-gi-doctor-hiding-from-voters/

grouch

Is Donald Trump OK? Erratic behaviour raises mental health questions

As his behaviour grows more bizarre, more and more analysts are asking if there’s something off with the Republican candidate.

[...]
But that brief report explicitly addressed only physical matters like blood pressure, not mental health. And its extreme grandiosity, unprecedented in a campaign medical report, was precisely the kind of eyebrower-raiser that has caused apprehension about his stability.

He boasts of his own unparalleled magnificence. He creates and promotes wild conspiracy theories. He tells easily disprovable lies. He fails to finish sentences before he gets distracted by unrelated thoughts. He appears to fly into a wounded rage at mild criticism.
[...]

https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2016/07/31/is-donald-trump-ok-erratic-behaviour-raises-mental-health-questions.html

grouch

We are now entering the Age of Stupid. How did our voters become so credulous?

[...]
American and British politicians at the highest level appear to be engaged in a competition to see who can utter the most defiantly ill-informed, aggressively ignorant statements about precisely the issues that governments have traditionally regarded as life-and-death matters.
[...]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/20/this-is-an-age-of-unprecedented-political-stupidity-how-did-our/

grouch

Harold Bornstein, Jacob Bornstein: Trump Letter, Dead Doctor References Raise Questions

[...]
Dr. Gunter and others have noted that in addition to listing the name of the deceased Jacob Bornstein, the letterhead includes a non-functioning website and that its salutation contains a typo, something she stressed that she would be sure to avoid if drafting a letter certifying the health of a presidential candidate. Gunter also noted that few doctors would provide patients with an un-secure Gmail address as part of their contact information.
[...]

http://www.inquisitr.com/3429148/dr-harold-bornstein-dr-jacob-bornstein-trump-letter-dead-doctor-references-raise-questions/

The comments to this entry are closed.

Available for Consulting and Speakerships

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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