Peak Trump - Manafort No Longer In Charge - Trump Has Removed Only Sane Leader He Had

So in the US Political race. We're just hearing that Trump has removed Paul Manafort from being in charge of his Campaign. He isn't firing Manafort - but Manafort was never on his payroll, he is a 'volunteer' (if you believe that, he also seems to be paid by Putin, so its more likely Manafort is there to guard Putin's investment of $300 Million that Putin loaned Trump in past months). But Trump no longer has his Campaign managed by Manafort. So we need to take a pause and consider this development.

First. This is huge. It is the biggest admission of 'a total disaster' that any Campaign can do. There is no bigger signal from the Campaign, that its all going wrong, than to fire the Campaign Manager. And to be clear, nobody has ever done this move, at this late stage in a US Presidential race by a major party, in the modern era. But far far worse, Trump JUST tried this gambit two months ago, when he fired Cory Lewandowski, his previous Campaign boss. And to be clear on the nomenclature, Lewandowski worked with the title of Campaign Manager until he was formally fired. At that time Manafort also was at the campaign, but Manafort was under the title of Campaign Chairman, nominally at a higher position than Lewandowski. And now we don't yet know what his title will be (probably the same) but while Manafort was running Trump's campaign since Lewandowski was ousted, now he won't do that anymore. Now Trump is bringing in a trio of media guys, led by his old friend, recently fired Fox News boss, Roger Ailes.

So again, first. The firing (or removing of) the Campaign boss is an admission by the Campaign that it is in total disaster stage. It is in catastrophic and possibly fatal operation. That it is in deep shit. And Trump's Campaign obviously is. He is more behind in polling at this point, mid August, than any recent politician of the two major parties has ever been. And that is fatal indeed. Nobody has ever come back from being this far behind. In fact, for the past dozen or so elections, no candidate has come to win the popular vote if they were behind AT ALL, about one week from now. When measured as one month after the end of the Conventions, the candidate who was ahead at that point, won the popular vote of every election in as far as most of us can remember. And Hillary is more ahead than anyone as far as they've done polls. Its pretty safe to say, Trump's campaign is a disaster, wrapped inside a catastrophy, inside a nightmare.

Now. Lewandowski was an idiot, he was a disaster as Campaign boss and deserved to be fired. The team inside knew this, Trump's kids knew this, and it was only obstinate Trump who held onto Lewandowski far too long. What was Manafort. In a Campaign that is at best seen as the Keystone Cops, because the loonie Candidate is not willing to be disciplined, and is woefully ill-prepared for even this stage of the race, the only sensible manager of the whole clown circus was Manafort. I think he's a despicable person and he lies systematically when he speaks in public, but we do know what he brought to the Campaign after Lewandowski was ousted. Manafort brougtht some, slight, discipline and sense. And we know also that this was driving Trump nuts. He hated being managed by Manafort. So he would of course constantly 'escape his leash' and not use the Teleprompter, and go on his wild Twitter rants, etc.

The tiny Campaign staff is already suicidal. They know they're in a sinking ship and their career futures are ruined by this futile run. But they did see that Manafort brought sense into the chaos that was with Lewandowski. They also can see from the daily internal struggle that Manafort was the sensible one and Trump is the moron. So now what happens. Trump fires the only sane person on their team. And in his place, he brings three outsiders who have never run a political campaign. But who are known serial liars and spin-doctors who wouldn't know a truth if it was delivered to them in a private sermon by Jesus Christ himself.

Now WHY did this happen? Its been growing. I told you exactly a month ago, 18 July, that the VP roll-selection and roll-out, run by Manafort, rubbed Trump the wrong way, and I said I didn't think Trump will keep Manafort. That they were not compatible. The Convention in Cleveland was a disaster and falls to Manafort's feet for the most part. Manafort was the man who wanted closer ties to the Republican party and the Convention had a lot of what Trump didn't much care for - the party unification attempts. Trump wanted just a show of superstars (we recall, he was able to secure the speech of Scott Baio. Scott Baio who was a second level 'star' in a 1970s TV sitcom only watched for its superstar 'the Fonz' Fonzie played by Henry Winkler. So Scott Baio. When you can't get Gary Busey to step in for Chuck Norris to cover for Clint Eastwood talking to an empty chair. Thats the real power of Donald Trump. He can get us Scott Baio. When Trump really tries). The speech plagiarism scandal with Melania stealing from Obama's wife's speech - about the worst slap in the face for Trump, imaginable. That was Manafort's fault. He didn't write the speech, but someone working for Manafort should have run the speech through Google... And after the Convention, I think Trump had already decided, he didn't like Manafort's influence and the annoying need to 'control' Trump. They clearly feuded for the next three weeks about Teleprompter or no, and whether Trump was allowed to go to Twitter, etc. I think its also telling that where the family was united to get rid of Lewandowski - and insisted dad fire Lewandowski and keep Manafort when those two were offering conflicting advice, today Ivanka is conveniently in Europe (on holiday with, get this, Putin's girlfriend, who is also Rupert Murdoch's ex-wife. How incestuous ARE the Trumps?)

So I am guessing its all smiles at the Trump Headquarters today (sarcasm). Trump's discipline will now improve (sarcasm). His failing campaign will now improve (sarcasm). Trump's sillyness will end (sarcasm). Trump's astronomically slight chances of winning in November will improve (sarcasm). But unfortunately for us, it means Manafort will have far more time to annoy us with his systematic lies as a Trump spokesperson on all TV channels. But for Trump Campaign troubles. I think it is safe to say, the more we see unfiltered real Trump, the more he will just repel even more voters. We can expect we've just witnessed 'Peak Trump'. It will be down-hill from here.

I think Trump had an epiphany last Wednesday night. From Thursday he was morose on the campaign trail, suddenly talking of having problems, and of being behind in Pennsylvania and Florida (Trump cannot win the election if he loses either of those two states, he's behind by TONS in both of them). And he's sounded far more downcast since then. He now is talking constantly about a rigged game, as if to set the stage that he knows he will lose, and try to deflect the fault. That it was not his fault. Also Roger Ailes and two other media dudes? If Trump had not worked on TrumpTV as his next ruse after November 8, I betcha that is now his top priority.

So yeah. The situation is going from bad to worse to even worse for the Trumpster. And we're only in mid August.

Comments

[Dickon Hood]

Worth noting that, assuming the filtering bot @RealRealDonaldTrump is correct, Trump hasn't actually tweeted anything in two days now: it's all been his campaign handlers.

(See http://gawker.com/our-trump-twitter-bot-filters-out-donald-trumps-new-han-1783906386 for details of the account).

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi Dickon

(welcome to the blog). Yeah I don't follow his TW feed (nor Hillary's) but I am regularly exposed to his more notorious Tweets by all those that I do follow. And we haven't seen any 'Trumpian' Tweets for about yeah, two days or so.

The Manafort end stories I've seen so far, suggest Trump decided over the weekend and had that Breitbart guy already at his offices at the weekend. And as the 3 people he brought in (I guess one was a woman) are all media people, the one thing they WOULD understand is media discipline. And how incredibly damaging Trump's Tweets have been. So at least initially, we can expect some time of Trump playing nice with his newest handlers. But that won't last long.

Also it seems all 3 who were brought in are real right wing nutters and conspiracy theory and white supremacy fans. So yeah. Donald J Trump: Political Genius. What you need for the general election is to pivot - but to pivot TOWARDS THE MIDDLE. Trump is now apparently going to pivot to the EXTREME right.

And Hillary should expect really nasty Swift-boat style hit jobs. And probably Breitbart will become the official propaganda outlet for Trump, not just the apparent one its been up to now, haha.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[paul]

It really looks that actually is more of a "pivoting" towards TrumpTV project (following Breibart-Drudge direction) by bringing even more media people in. Only Matt Drudge is still missing from Trump's team now. A catastrophic defeat of Trump probably would mean also the end of TrumpTV dream so there might still be a chance of an early exit by Trump just to allow him to start his TrumpTV project and keep it long enough alive before selling it.

[Winter]

This could be the birth of a nativist party around Trump TV and the ultra right media outlets.

I do not expect Fox News to be incoroprated. They would rather have the whole right as a more lucrative audience. But Ailes is not so much synonymous with Fox anymore.

[Winter]

Trump as Samson and the GOP as the Philistines:

https://newrepublic.com/article/136058/trump-going-down-hes-taking-gop

[Wayne Borean]

Thought I'd heard of everything! Someone started a site called "Vote Trump Get Dumped" to encourage women to cut off their husbands and boyfriends who are Trump fans. I don't mean cut off like what happens to Bobbit, I mean cut off as in Lysistrata.

https://web.archive.org/web/20160626145913/http://votetrumpgetdumped.com/

The site has died, but the Wayback Machine has it.

[Winter]

@Wayne
"Vote Trump get dumped"

It is classical, literally:

Lysistrata
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lysistrata

Not that Trump voters would know the connection.

[cornelius]

Bloomberg has a piece about the new campaign manager and it ain't pretty.

"This Man Is the Most Dangerous Political Operative in America"

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2015-steve-bannon/

[Winter]

@cornelius
"...it ain't pretty."

We witness the birth of a new, nativist party.

This is not, anymore, about winning the elections for the Republican party on any level. The people that came aboard will try to found a new fascist party to the image of the French Front National, or Putin's party vehicle, if you like.

Study: 65% Of White Americans Would Love A Trumpist Third Party

http://dailycaller.com/2016/08/16/study-65-of-white-americans-would-love-a-trumpist-third-party/

Trump might be a narcissist that cannot stay on message. The new people running the campaign know what they want and will use Trump to get it.

This will be the KKK in new dress.

And know what? The Democrats will help them do it. Because a split GOP will be out of power for decades.

[cornelius]

@Winter
"Because a split GOP will be out of power for decades."
That is assuming the Democratic Party stays in one piece. But what if the Bernie bros split too? Then I am not so sure, it could be that the new KKK may win the elections.

[cornelius]

How about this little piece of dirt on Trump.

As soon as Chris Crispy Cream became NJ governor, out of an estimated 30 million which Trump's casinos owed in taxes, Trump managed to settle for 5 million. He only paid 5 million! So 25 million was forgiven. I guess Trump being such a great negotiator is why he got such a sweet deal.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/17/us/politics/trump-chris-christie-casinos.html?_r=0

[Paul]

@Tomi
As you don't seem to follow the other threads I'm telling here that you have been right about the schedule of new Nokia smartphones: they're going to start shipping Q4 THIS YEAR!!!!

http://www.androidauthority.com/new-nokia-smartphones-confirmed-q4-2016-710592/

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi Everybody

The Nationalist Trumpist party makes sense but likely more as an organic evolution than a strict plan for now. Also it would be far more on the minds of the new boys than Trump's intention or plan. If Trump figures out that using this run to set up a third party that will lose every election as long as Trump is alive, he won't want that for himself. And regardless of how much Trump hated being managed by Manafort, Trump did 'hear' the reason he has to pivot and he cannot win by only playing to the base.

Now, on the prospects. First off, there is another sheriff also in town. And after November, Ted Cruz will have a far mightier standing with Tea Partiers than Trump. And Trumpian Nationalistic party is of course a different competing entity to the Tea Party.

Secondly, those who would want a 'Trumpian' party include all who are White Supremacists and racists but not all Trumpists feel that way. A modern and 'moderate' evolution of the KKK would get part of Trump's current support, but would repel part of it.

What will SEVERELY damage that project is how badly Trump will lose - because EVERYBODY (outside of possibly this Trump TV vehicle) will abandon Trump and BLAME Trump. That includes Fox and Breitbart. The GOP will want a skapegoat. The various right wing elements from religious to Tea Party to gun rights to Nazis will want a skapegoat. They will have lost not just the White House and Senate, but a carefully constructed Gerrymandered and essentially invincible House majority. And to add insult to injury, the Supreme Court flips. EVERYTHING that the right wing holds dear will be under attack by Hillary, Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer and the new voice of the Supreme Court, Ruth Bader Ginsberg, where Chief Justice Roberts will seem to have surrendered to the girls.

There is no way Trump survives the hostility. It will start well before election day and it will be total harmony. He will be the designated skapegoat and MANY of his closest will do a Judas on him before election day.

That wipes the chances of the TV network and destroys the idea of a Trumpian Party. What MAY emerge regardless, is a nationalist third party, something of a unified KKK, Nazi, White Supremacist party with new elements from the right wing of the GOP. But if Trump is not there to be the unifying original 'leader' and the Trump TV network to sustain it, this idea won't survive the destruction that comes with Trump in November. Not because by late October EVERY obvious MISTAKE will be catalogued by the right wing media - including Trump's strongest supporters from Hannity to Coulter to Breitbart.

The rats will essentially all desert this sad angry bitter old man. Most will do so before election day. It will be truly pathetic. And he will lash out against everyone making it an ever worse spectacle in the last weeks.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Paul

Thanks. I'll be there... GREAT news !!!

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[paul]

@Paul

That is great news regarding Nokia!

@Tomi

I was thinking for a good name for Trump-Breibart-Drudge-KKK party. Nuts party?
Tea party & Nuts party!

[cornelius]

@paul

I guess Nuts Party Mix name makes more sense. Because they got so many kinds of nuts:
sweet nuts (the Chris Crispy Creme type)
salty nuts (the crying-after-the-election type)
spicy-hot nuts (the Melania and Ivanka type)
white nuts (the KKK type)
orange nuts (the Cheetos type)
tiny nuts (Trump's own two beautiful nuts)

[Winter]

@paul
"I was thinking for a good name for Trump-Breibart-Drudge-KKK party."

The All New Know Nothing Party. Or the New Native American party.

Yes, there really was an Native American Party that excluded native Americans and was also known as the Know Nothing movement.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Know_Nothing

[Millard Filmore]

A series of tweets at the link below speculates on exactly what direction Bannon (Breitbart) will point Trump.

Bannon has convinced Trump that rest of campaign needs to be bare-knuckles brawl, w/ full-bore populism/movement politics

Huge rallies. Gloves off. Brutal fights with Clinton. Heavy emphasis on nationalism and populism. That's the Bannon strategy.

What I hear: Bannon's calculation is that Trump can still win but only if he is truly seen as "change," as "the total outsider"

http://www.bradford-delong.com/2016/08/but-it-wasnt-an-election-and-when-the-smoke-cleared-just-donald-with-a-meat-ax-in-his-hand-screaming-for-blood.html#more

https://storify.com/delong/but-it-wasn-t-an-election-it-was-hell-among-the-ye (that is the link, not cut off)

[Wayne Borean]

Washington Post is beating up on Trump

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/08/17/donald-trump-is-going-back-to-being-donald-trump-thats-a-big-problem-for-republicans/?tid=hybrid_experimentrandom_2_na

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-staff-shake-up-highlights-a-candidate-who-lost-his-way-in-the-general-election/2016/08/17/0d23bb1c-6497-11e6-be4e-23fc4d4d12b4_story.html?tid=pm_politics_pop_b

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/08/10/the-trump-campaign-has-been-a-disaster-for-the-trump-brand/

[Winter]

I cannot see how Bannon can believe there are enough voters who think that Paul Ryan is too liberal to win the elections. Else he is lying to Trump and knows they will lose this way.