Peak Trump - Manafort No Longer In Charge - Trump Has Removed Only Sane Leader He Had

So in the US Political race. We're just hearing that Trump has removed Paul Manafort from being in charge of his Campaign. He isn't firing Manafort - but Manafort was never on his payroll, he is a 'volunteer' (if you believe that, he also seems to be paid by Putin, so its more likely Manafort is there to guard Putin's investment of $300 Million that Putin loaned Trump in past months). But Trump no longer has his Campaign managed by Manafort. So we need to take a pause and consider this development.

First. This is huge. It is the biggest admission of 'a total disaster' that any Campaign can do. There is no bigger signal from the Campaign, that its all going wrong, than to fire the Campaign Manager. And to be clear, nobody has ever done this move, at this late stage in a US Presidential race by a major party, in the modern era. But far far worse, Trump JUST tried this gambit two months ago, when he fired Cory Lewandowski, his previous Campaign boss. And to be clear on the nomenclature, Lewandowski worked with the title of Campaign Manager until he was formally fired. At that time Manafort also was at the campaign, but Manafort was under the title of Campaign Chairman, nominally at a higher position than Lewandowski. And now we don't yet know what his title will be (probably the same) but while Manafort was running Trump's campaign since Lewandowski was ousted, now he won't do that anymore. Now Trump is bringing in a trio of media guys, led by his old friend, recently fired Fox News boss, Roger Ailes.

So again, first. The firing (or removing of) the Campaign boss is an admission by the Campaign that it is in total disaster stage. It is in catastrophic and possibly fatal operation. That it is in deep shit. And Trump's Campaign obviously is. He is more behind in polling at this point, mid August, than any recent politician of the two major parties has ever been. And that is fatal indeed. Nobody has ever come back from being this far behind. In fact, for the past dozen or so elections, no candidate has come to win the popular vote if they were behind AT ALL, about one week from now. When measured as one month after the end of the Conventions, the candidate who was ahead at that point, won the popular vote of every election in as far as most of us can remember. And Hillary is more ahead than anyone as far as they've done polls. Its pretty safe to say, Trump's campaign is a disaster, wrapped inside a catastrophy, inside a nightmare.

Now. Lewandowski was an idiot, he was a disaster as Campaign boss and deserved to be fired. The team inside knew this, Trump's kids knew this, and it was only obstinate Trump who held onto Lewandowski far too long. What was Manafort. In a Campaign that is at best seen as the Keystone Cops, because the loonie Candidate is not willing to be disciplined, and is woefully ill-prepared for even this stage of the race, the only sensible manager of the whole clown circus was Manafort. I think he's a despicable person and he lies systematically when he speaks in public, but we do know what he brought to the Campaign after Lewandowski was ousted. Manafort brougtht some, slight, discipline and sense. And we know also that this was driving Trump nuts. He hated being managed by Manafort. So he would of course constantly 'escape his leash' and not use the Teleprompter, and go on his wild Twitter rants, etc.

The tiny Campaign staff is already suicidal. They know they're in a sinking ship and their career futures are ruined by this futile run. But they did see that Manafort brought sense into the chaos that was with Lewandowski. They also can see from the daily internal struggle that Manafort was the sensible one and Trump is the moron. So now what happens. Trump fires the only sane person on their team. And in his place, he brings three outsiders who have never run a political campaign. But who are known serial liars and spin-doctors who wouldn't know a truth if it was delivered to them in a private sermon by Jesus Christ himself.

Now WHY did this happen? Its been growing. I told you exactly a month ago, 18 July, that the VP roll-selection and roll-out, run by Manafort, rubbed Trump the wrong way, and I said I didn't think Trump will keep Manafort. That they were not compatible. The Convention in Cleveland was a disaster and falls to Manafort's feet for the most part. Manafort was the man who wanted closer ties to the Republican party and the Convention had a lot of what Trump didn't much care for - the party unification attempts. Trump wanted just a show of superstars (we recall, he was able to secure the speech of Scott Baio. Scott Baio who was a second level 'star' in a 1970s TV sitcom only watched for its superstar 'the Fonz' Fonzie played by Henry Winkler. So Scott Baio. When you can't get Gary Busey to step in for Chuck Norris to cover for Clint Eastwood talking to an empty chair. Thats the real power of Donald Trump. He can get us Scott Baio. When Trump really tries). The speech plagiarism scandal with Melania stealing from Obama's wife's speech - about the worst slap in the face for Trump, imaginable. That was Manafort's fault. He didn't write the speech, but someone working for Manafort should have run the speech through Google... And after the Convention, I think Trump had already decided, he didn't like Manafort's influence and the annoying need to 'control' Trump. They clearly feuded for the next three weeks about Teleprompter or no, and whether Trump was allowed to go to Twitter, etc. I think its also telling that where the family was united to get rid of Lewandowski - and insisted dad fire Lewandowski and keep Manafort when those two were offering conflicting advice, today Ivanka is conveniently in Europe (on holiday with, get this, Putin's girlfriend, who is also Rupert Murdoch's ex-wife. How incestuous ARE the Trumps?)

So I am guessing its all smiles at the Trump Headquarters today (sarcasm). Trump's discipline will now improve (sarcasm). His failing campaign will now improve (sarcasm). Trump's sillyness will end (sarcasm). Trump's astronomically slight chances of winning in November will improve (sarcasm). But unfortunately for us, it means Manafort will have far more time to annoy us with his systematic lies as a Trump spokesperson on all TV channels. But for Trump Campaign troubles. I think it is safe to say, the more we see unfiltered real Trump, the more he will just repel even more voters. We can expect we've just witnessed 'Peak Trump'. It will be down-hill from here.

I think Trump had an epiphany last Wednesday night. From Thursday he was morose on the campaign trail, suddenly talking of having problems, and of being behind in Pennsylvania and Florida (Trump cannot win the election if he loses either of those two states, he's behind by TONS in both of them). And he's sounded far more downcast since then. He now is talking constantly about a rigged game, as if to set the stage that he knows he will lose, and try to deflect the fault. That it was not his fault. Also Roger Ailes and two other media dudes? If Trump had not worked on TrumpTV as his next ruse after November 8, I betcha that is now his top priority.

So yeah. The situation is going from bad to worse to even worse for the Trumpster. And we're only in mid August.

Comments

[Millard Filmore]

@Winter: They will ride the nation down to destruction even if they win.

[sgtrock]

You mean, especially if they win, right?

[rune]

@Eduardo M:
Thanks for that Atlantic link. Nice to see someone really think about the roots of the problem.

However, he stops short of the conclusion that seems inevitable to me: That the very concept of primary elections is broken. It is absurd that a party can end up with a candidate that cares nothing for the party.

It's all well and fine to have rebels, but they should run as independents or establish a new party. Or be forced to compromise with the mainstream of the party that they want to run for.

Of course, the problem is multiplied when there are primaries not only for president, but for candidates at all levels.

I don't know of any other country that has primaries to anywhere near that extent. It appears to be a uniquely American experiment. And it has failed...

[Winter]

@Millard
Fair. But currently they are facing political death and irrelevance straight in the face. A Clinton presidency will switch the supreme court. That means all voter surpression and gerymandering will be ended. Super pacs will end.

The Republicans will lose big and go down to their demographic minority status. They will be forced to reform which will be the end of most of the current GOP politicians.

It is now or never again. They will destroy the federation if needed.

[Winter]

@rune
"I don't know of any other country that has primaries to anywhere near that extent. It appears to be a uniquely American experiment. And it has failed..."

Other countries have two rounds (eg, France). The US system is designed to keep the two main parties in power to the exclusion of others.

[cornelius]

OK, now we know why Trump has canceled those rallies in Nevada and Colorado. Because he wanted to have a rally in Texas. Texas makes much more sense because he gets more supporters there and they are more vocal, more on the same page with him.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/trump-red-state-campaigning-227283

[cornelius]

Sorry, I forgot to mention the other rally in Mississippi. BTW that makes a lot of sense too.

[Winter]

@Tomi
"Ok. One possibility is, that Trump is REALLY exhausted, possibly ill. "

That would explain the fixation on Hillaries health. They might want to deflect upcoming news about Trump's health.

[cornelius]

It seems that the Russians are bent on helping Trump become POTUS. After hacking DNC, now it's NY Times' turn.

https://yro.slashdot.org/story/16/08/23/1831217/fbi-investigating-russian-hack-of-new-york-times-reporters-others

[Winter]

Texas might not really be in play for the presidency, but maybe Hillary could get some extra house seats?

Reliably Republican Texas Shows Signs of Cracking Under Trump
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-08-23/reliably-republican-texas-shows-signs-of-cracking-under-trump

[cornelius]

There is a poll that does not appear at RCP and shows Clinton up 14 points! What? 14 points? Ouch!

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/08/23/clinton-trump-florida-rubio-murphy-grayson-senate/89213904/

And another appeared today at RCP. Clinton up 16 points in Virginia. Now we know why she pulled the ads in Virginia.

[cornelius]

Sorry, forgot to mention the 14 points poll is in Florida.

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi everybody

Ok Politico reports now about the changes in the travel plan. They are now ending the non-battleground events (lets see if that holds) and shifting to a tight battleground states public speaking schedule (which would be sane).

It seems to suggest that they count Colorado (and likely also Nevada) as lost causes (which would be the correct calculation) and if thats the case, they have to see that Virginia is also hopeless. The campaign does have events scheduled in Florida and Iowa, those makes sense.

So Colorado and Nevada being cut would in that case make sense where the campaign is now making a VERY tight limited focus, where FAR LESS than 10 states are the 'real' battleground.

Separately, Virginia has a poll out with 16 point lead for Hillary.

There is also some gossip that Trump has been taken off a high public speaking frequency because of his horrid lack of preparedness for the debates. So they're cutting his 'play time' speaking to his audiences and forcing Trump to study and prep, for the debates. These two issues are not mutually exclusive, they may be both going on.

The good points about both issues are, that the new management of Trump's campaign IS attempting to win, and Trump IS playing along with that. This suggests Trump is probably not going to quit soon, and if he now acts more 'reasonably' in ways that would not further damage his chances to win, that means also he won't hopefully say too many horrible incendiary things. But if he does actually think he can prep enough to show up at the debate - haha that is what Hillary will love. There is no way Trump will be able to appear competent in that debate. But if Trump believes he has a chance, he might not skip out of the debate.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[cornelius]

Clinton is looking to expand the map. Now Missouri seems very competitive.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/24/us/politics/poll-puts-hillary-clinton-neck-and-neck-with-donald-trump-in-missouri.html

We know that Clinton will start spending money in Georgia and Arizona. Now she's adding an office in St. Louis.

[grouch]

The Squalid Case Against Hillary and Her Emails

The members of Congress involved cannot be sued for defamation, since they are protected by the “Speech and Debate Clause” of the Constitution. But the fact that they are not merely smearing the former secretary of state but are trying to send her to jail on phony charges of perjury and lying to Congress is beyond the pale of dirty politics.

http://www.newsweek.com/squalid-case-against-hillary-and-her-emails-492017

[Millard Filmore]

@grouch: Sounds vaguely like a Monty Python sketch.

Stolen from http://www.ibras.dk/montypython/episode27.htm (search the page for "Erik Njorl")

Jason Chaffetz: Bailiff, please put Hillary in the perp cage so we can sentence her.

Hillary Clinton: What are the charges?

Jason Chaffetz: (Sigh) Let's get on with this bleeding trial, I've got a Gay Lib meeting at 6 o'clock. Superintendent Lufthansa will you please read the charge.

Superintendent: Is a charge strictly necessary, m'lud?

Trey: (heavy aside) The press is here.

Super: Oh sorry! Right, here we go. You are hereby charged. One, that you did, on or about 11/26, conspire to publicize a London Borough in the course of a BBC saga; two, that you were wilfully and persistently a foreigner; three, that you conspired to do things not normally considered illegal; four, that you were caught in possession of an offensive weapon, viz, the big brown table down at the police station.

[Wayne Borean]

Heh. Now we know why Hillary is so untrustworthy.

https://otviiiisgrrr8.com/2016/08/22/hillary-completes-ot-iii-at-flag/

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi everybody

First, I just wrote a blog earlier today, to join in support of a blogger/journalist of a website who has received a lawsuit threat from Trump, about Melania's history as an Escort. I am supporting the freedom of speech aspect and you may enjoy that blog article.

But on the race overall. We have an interesting phenomenon measured at Reuters Daily Tracking poll (using Likely Voter screen) and as that poll changed its measurements and there are two polls with similar info but one is no longer active, I mean the new version that is active, at this link

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_DS_13/filters/LIKELY:1

So looking at the past month. Hillary has run a relatively flat period, plus/minus within 4 points, lowest at 41% and highest at 45% and slowly grew, so she's now at the top of that trend.

Trump has had a more volatile month, fluctuating between a peak of 39% and low end of 33% so a 6 point fluctuation and going up and down several times in the past month.

You'd think under most normal cases - this is a two-person poll - that the gains and losses of the two should mirror, roughly-speaking. Where Hillary has a peak, Trump should see his lowest polling and vice versa, during any longer period(s).

BUT there is no such correlation. There IS another, interesting one. The bottom lines look at the orange line, not the yellow line. The item 'refused' has a near perfect correlation, of inverse relation, to Trump's line. When Trump has a peak, the Refused line is at its bottom and when Trump is at its bottom, the Refused is at its peak. While the Refused choice isn't as extreme in its swings, a low of 6 to a peak of 11 - its 5 points and almost what Trump does at 6 points. And it mirrors quite very closely indeed.

The REFUSED choice goes up, when Trump polling falls. Those polled refuse to give a choice. Any choice. Then when Trump is no longer as toxic, they tend to come back to Trump. Its not really, that Trump voters are deserting Trump and going to Hillary or the two Third Party candidates (although Hillary has seen very slow-paced but steady gains, a few points) they fluctuate between admitting they'll vote for Trump, and hiding it. Ashamed of liking Trump.

There is a good chance, that in all polling, there is a hidden element worth many points, that is hiding their willingness to vote for Trump. It could be worth several points. If we assigned all Refused votes to Trump, then the Reuters Daily Tracking Poll (Likely Voter Screen) today would be 45% for Hillary and 44% for Trump, essentially a tied race. But because they did not say, and the actual willing voters to express an opinion, the same poll finds Hillary today ahead by 12 points, 45% to 33%.

Now, some of those who refused, probably will not vote at all. The more Trump does continue to be his normal despicable self, these who are so ashamed to say who they will vote for - some of those will not show up. And the more Trump is nasty, the more they will stay away. Also if the polling keeps reporting an ever worsening race, these type of people will not feel too eager to show up to vote.

BUT there is a hidden racist vote that is ashamed to admit, they prefer Trump. It may be as much as 10% of the total voter electorate.

Now. That being said, gosh, the battlegrounds are collapsing for Trump. Virginia? A four-way race has Hillary now up by 16%. 48% to 32% against Trump. Virginia is obviously long gone. But Florida? A poll just out by Leo University of a 4-way race, has Hillary up by 14% in Florida !!! 14 points! If Trump loses Florida the election is over. He has to win all of Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. That Leo poll is not (yet) on RCP pages and its not counted in their averages, but they had the 4-way race as an average of recent polls only with a 4.0% lead for Hillary, but the last poll they included, out a week ago, by Monmouth had Florida already up by 9% for Hillary in the 4-way race. And she's pounding Trump in the local TV ads obviously. Is a 14% poll an outlier, we need to wait to see, but if Florida is even at about 10 points the election is over. Trump won't make up ten points in 75 days.

So even if the national race is hiding plenty of 'stealth' Trump voters, ashamed to admit they like him - the race in the battleground states is utterly collapsing for Trump - thanks to a well-targeted, high-power, consistent attack machine by Hillary and her strong teams in those states.

Again, I'd love to see a clear move now into Georgia and Arizona next for her.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Millard Filmore]

OOPS! Trump might not be on the Minnesota ballot.

UPDATE: The #MNGOP failed to elect alternate presidential electors – so the state exec committee did it tonight – without clear authority.
— Michael Brodkorb (@mbrodkorb) August 25, 2016

Again: Process for Trump to be on MN ballot. #MNGOP didn't officially elect alternate electors – trouble ahead? Yep. pic.twitter.com/oaEZQEw3AA
— Michael Brodkorb (@mbrodkorb) August 25, 2016

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/08/gop-fail-donald-trump-not-listed-minnesota-ballot/

[cornelius]

@Millard Filmore

I am not sure if this situation is good for Clinton. Now the right wing vote is not split anymore between Johnson and Trump. With Clinton damaged, it may happen that a unified right wing vote may help Johnson get Minnesota. With Trump in the race Clinton should get the state. It would've been better if this thing happened in a red state.