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« The Trump Cult Is One Without A Leader. Trump is Only Its Willing Figurehead | Main | Nokia Smartphone Return on Android Starts Already This Christmas »

August 17, 2016

Comments

Winter

@grouch
"How did our voters become so credulous?"

Two causes:
1) A education that fails students on every level due to parents who see ignorance as a virtue and do not want to pay the taxes it takes to fund a good scholing system.

2) Mushroom journalism: Keep the in the dark and feed them manure. Combined with an audience that does not want to hear anything thry do not agree with.

Btw, this holds true for the UK with their reliance on an elitist "public" (private) scholing system and politicized ownership of the media.

grouch

Winter:

I think you are correct in your assessment.

In the U.S., the trouble has been exacerbated by one (1) party which has for several decades convinced people to vote against their own interests. For example, Reagan stole lunch money from school children to build missiles, of which we already had an excess, and then, later, further raided domestic funding to destroy those missiles according to treaty.

I'm in agreement with President Obama when he stated that George H. W. Bush (Bush the Elder) hasn't received enough credit for his accomplishments. He was the first to label Reagan's trickle down economic policy as "voodoo economics". He may be the last moderate Republican the U.S. will see in my lifetime. The lunatic fringe has hijacked the Republican party through trumped-up yellow press. Compromise, the art of politics, is abhorrent to them as they hold the country hostage for their demands of religious and economic extremism.

Hopefully, the Democrats are really listening and returning to their roots of center, left. I also hope they don't suffer hijacking by their own lunatic fringe before a true Republican party can be reborn.

grouch

Well, if Trump won't act like Trump for Tomi's predictions, a surrogate will have to do:

Trump Surrogate Snidely Suggests African American Voters Prefer 'A Backdrop With A Burning Car'

[...]
She stopped him short, saying, "I have to stop you because you said he's going there. He's not, he's in Diamondale, which is 93 percent white. When he was in Milwaukee the other day, it was part of Milwaukee that wasn't dealing -- I mean, it's almost completely white."

Kingston retorted, "Maybe it would have been nice if he went and had a backdrop with a burning car."
[...]

http://crooksandliars.com/2016/08/trump-surrogate-snidely-suggests-african

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Everybody

NY Times has calculated the same period TV ad spend Trump Campaign vs Hillary in the 4 states where Trump now clearly is advertising (I don't see any evidence of Virginia happening). So Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. In the next 3 weeks Trump runs 4 million dollars of TV ads in those 4 states, Hillary runs 12 million dollars of ads in the same states.

This does not include SuperPAC TV ad spend. Trump's spend according to Ad Age calculation on reserved ads going forward is about twice as big as his supporting SuperPACs and other advertisers like the NRA, combined. So for the period, perhaps around 6 Million dollars in total (my guess). And Hillary's Campaign spend on TV ads is about 1/3 the size of her SuperPACS so total TV ads for Hillary in the 3 week period in these 4 states could be of magnitude around 36 million dollars. Perhaps 6 to 1 TV ad superiority still, but at least Trump is on the board now, with what has to be seen as relatively modest TV ad spend.

BTW the ad has immediately drawn ridicule from fact-checkers such as a full 4 Pinocchios and producing a new lie every 5 seconds, etc. There is also gossip that Roger Ailes did not like the first ads cut by Manafort, Ailes thinking they were too tame. We don't know if this ad is the Manafort idea or the Ailes idea. But I think its safe to say, Trump will get even more nasty in his upcoming TV ads.

PS - on her online ads, Hillary is already test-running an ad which mocks Trump for his 'regrets' running a series of Trump explicit statements of what he at least does NOT regret (no regrets about John McCain or the Khan Family etc).

But yeah, looking forward to more of the data on the race. Also we should see fund-raising final totals any moment now..

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Eduardo M

Trump's personality:

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/06/the-mind-of-donald-trump/480771/

Eduardo M

Trump supporters lack hope:

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/08/donald-trump-manufacturing-jobs-hope/496541/

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Everybody

So the money race. We have now the SuperPACs reporting and the party organizations. Hillary's main SuperPAC took in LESS money in July than in June (a bit weird, considering their successful Convention?) but they still took in 9.3 million dollars. The 3 SuperPACs that support Trump took in about 6.5 million dollars.

Then the parties, the Democrats took in 32 million dollars, the Republicans 27 million dollars. When we add the previous info on the actual Campaigns (Hillary 89 million Trump 82 million) we get the July money race as:

Hillary and affiliated Democratic party and SuperPAC fund-raising $130 million
Trump and affiliated Republican party and SuperPAC fund-raising $116 million

Its not a big lead by the Democrats but on every scale they are (still) ahead. Note also that the Republican SuperPACs pay higher salaries than Democrats; and the Trump Campaign pays actual salaries to Trump and tons of his family, plus plenty of expenses into his family, so actual 'cash to spend' is a bit more in the Democrats' favor, but still, this is no longer a totally dominating race. As of now Hillary and the Democrats are about 12% ahead (in the month of July) but they entered the period FAR ahead, and this still adds, although only modestly, to their lead.

This is still unprecedented, because even in 2012, when Obama broke his own record for fund-raising (where usually the Republicans raise far more than Democrats) it was still the REPUBLICAN PARTY which outraised the Democratic party in 2012. While Obama got money for himself, the party was doing poorly. Partly, that may be also because the Democrats in 2012 ran away from Obama. But still.

So now, its not just that Hillary is ahead of Trump, for the first time ever, also the Democratic party is running ahead of the Republicans. That said, the difference is not remarkably big. I expected it to be more.

The main benefit in the campaign cash race, is that Team Hillary has been pre-booking TV ad time early, getting lower rates than the Republicans now booking ad time against them. But in terms of total money raised, the Republicans are ramping up faster than Democrats and we may find August numbers (reported in late September) to be just about neck-and-neck.

This does not turn the landslide catastrophic Trump loss into a competitive race, but once again, what was a huge enormous massive lead by Hillary and team, is now tightening. As Trump also has managed to stay on message for four days with relatively few blunders, at least Trump isn't punching new holes into the sinking Titanic..

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Everybody

CORRECTION. I used the wrong numbers. The 89 and 82 million numbers included the shared fund-raising. Sorry. We now have both campaigns releasing their actual July final fund-raising. So lets do that math again

So the money race. We have now the SuperPACs reporting and the party organizations. Hillary's main SuperPAC took in LESS money in July than in June (a bit weird, considering their successful Convention?) but they still took in 9.3 million dollars. The 3 SuperPACs that support Trump took in about 6.5 million dollars.

Then the parties, the Democrats took in 32 million dollars, the Republicans 27 million dollars. When we add the previous info on the actual Campaigns (Hillary 52.3 million Trump 36.7 million) we get the July money race as:

Hillary and affiliated Democratic party and SuperPAC fund-raising $94 million
Trump and affiliated Republican party and SuperPAC fund-raising $70 million

So the difference is a bit bigger in Hillary's and the Democrats' favor - 34% stronger fund-raising. That sounds like a sizable lead and as its on all parts - Hillary Campaign our-raises the Trump Campaign; the Democrats with Hillary outraise Trump with Republicans; and the SuperPAC for Hillary outraises the 3 SuperPACs for Trump - this is a pretty good sign for Democrats for July but Trump is chasing them. 30% is not a safe lead with still 80 days to go in the race. Hillary and the Democrats entered the period with more money in the bank and they also now have more in the bank.

Now on the SPENDING, Trump has a particularly weird entry, he paid 8 million to a Texas internet company nobody has heard from. It could be a scam that Trump is using to funnel campaign money out to his own pocket via a dummy corporation. 8 million leakage - come on, Trump has nothing spectacular at all online to justify that (its twice the amount Trump is spending now on TV ADS !!!) so its one QUARTER of the money that came in. Weird, weird, weird.

So if there is something awesome happening online that justifies this massive expenditure, maybe Trump has some kind of secret weapon but ... but ... if thats money he's just pilfering from his campaign then Hillary & team is ACTUALLY up by 52% in the month of July haha.

But even at 30% down, Trump is not making any ground, he's still falling further behind in this race with just over two and a half months to go. He is losing, bigly.

Ok, more as we find it

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Wayne Borean


CNN has some commentary on Trump

http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/20/opinions/trump-turnaround-wont-be-easy-zelizer/index.html

cornelius

Here is more info on the money race:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/trump-paid-dearly-to-boost-fundraising-227236

It contains stuff not mentioned by Tomi such as Lewandowski still being on Trump's payroll at 20.000 dollars monthly rate.

Wayne Borean


A Louisiana resident has some words for Trump about his visit.

http://www.rawstory.com/2016/08/where-is-the-fcking-check-louisiana-relief-worker-spits-fire-over-trumps-flood-zone-photo-op/

Wayne Borean


McMullin is on the ballot for four states, and is working on the rest.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/evan-mcmullin-iowa-louisiana-ballots-227224

Wayne Borean


Alice Cooper for President!

http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/19/politics/alice-cooper-elected-running-for-president/index.html

grouch

The link is pretty descriptive all by itself.

http://www.alternet.org/culture/washington-man-stabs-kissing-interracial-couple-cites-donald-trump-when-arrested

Millard Filmore

@Tomi: "Now on the SPENDING, Trump has a particularly weird entry,"

Do the reports show if Trump's kids still pulling in their salary while they take a long vacation?

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

From my Twitter comments (my comments to someone else).. I notices a bizarre aspect, am sure many others also have already noted it, but it struck me.

So Trump fired Manafort for not letting Trump be Trump. Now new Campaign boss the Breitbart guy Bannon and the nominal Campaign 'Manager' (in reality pollster and message director) KellyAnne Conway have supposedly done what Trump wants. So we have seen nearly a week now of 'Let Trump be Trump'.

And what did we see? Trump did 5 days straight on Teleprompter (he hates that). He said he has regrets (while not specifying and definitely not apologizing) but yeah. Trump hates that. Then he suddenly did appeals to blacks. Now his latest is to suggest he won't round up the illegals and deport them.

Would Manafort have wanted those things? Most definitely yes. How is this 'Let Trump be Trump'? Its not. The new team has gotten Trump to drink the medicine the old boss couldn't get done. Because why? Manafort was already out and Trump refused to listen to him from the end of the Convention (as I suggested). Trump did all these 'sane' things but only after he tossed Manafort. AND this is TOTALLY not 'Let Trump be Trump'. He HATES this.

And how is his echo chamber taking it. They're confused and lost and starting to grumble. Soon they will be in revolt. They want the old Trump back and they don't want to see a pivot now.

Can Trump do a successful pivot from being the most bigoted, most racist, most ill-prepared and most erratic Candidate to run on a major ticket at this stage of the race, in the modern era - to win over Moderate and Independent voters in the middle. No, of course not. He has 400 days of his vile hatred on videotape and now anything he says rings hollow. It MAY get some who were queasy on the middle to 'stay' with Trump and not depart. The wobbly right-edge of the middle that wasn't happy with Racist Trump.

But it means the right wing will feel burned and they will not like it. So their enthusiasm decreases. They will not show up to vote as much, the net result is his polling takes a further hit with no gains. The money takes a further hit because the hard core loyalists - on the edge - will not send money while the wobbly middle won't dare throw money into this risky venture. And the rich Republican money has long since decided this is a lost cause.

This cannot last. Trump HATES this type of campaigning. He is trying to sound reasonable but it gets him nothing. Trump will read the polls for a week or two and then decide, this is not working - and then 'Campaign Manager' KellyAnne Conway will be demoted in reality, back to pollster only, while she'll get to keep her job title until Trump suddenly gets angry at her, and hires someone else to get that job title, once the polling gets even worse.

But the PIVOTs to blacks, to Hispanics. The ridicule he's getting on the regrets. The Teleprompter speeches. This will not last long. And when it goes, so too goes this option. Because then Trump becomes the man who cried wolf. Nothing he says, will be trusted by anyone (while all is on videotape). And it becomes a vicious cycle where he just shrinks his ever-smaller support base.

I may be wrong, we'll see. But Trump HATES this type of campaign he's doing right now. There was an event where his audience started to leave before Trump had finished speaking. Some of his audience are vocal already about not liking the Teleprompter speeches. And now the racist edge of Trump's support, the strictly White Supremacists, they are becoming unhappy that Trump is moving away from his racist talk about blacks and Hispanics. But if Trump goes back to 'old Trump' then all this turns out to have been a week-long ruse to the minorities.

This could have worked in June or even July. It should have been part of the Convention. Now it is too little and too late to get Trump GAINS in support. But now, it does open up fresh leaks of support out of his base. And because this is what Trump himself hates, I cannot see this lasting long. He will abandon the Teleprompter 'Kinder-Gentler' Trump who loves blacks and Hispanics - and will go back to being Archie Bunker.

So in some way this is the TV sitcom episode of the 'evil twin'. Trump has a family black sheep who is the white sheep, the Twin of Donald, Ronald Trump, who is the white sheep who is a good Christian, who loves all people, volunteers time and money, is not bigoted racist pig. And after this episode, that evil twin will be gone haha. It was not real. Episode ends with Trump waking up from a nightmare haha

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Millard Filmore

more information on Trumps odd expenditure on his digital presence:

http://digbysblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/wheres-money-go.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/08/21/trump-campaign-has-biggest-spending-month-yet-but-clinton-still-dominates-financially/?postshare=5581471760104576&tid=ss_tw

Wayne Borean


Op-Ed saying that the Mormon Church should issue a statement about Donald Trump's lack of fitness to be President.

http://www.sltrib.com/opinion/4254002-155/op-ed-lds-church-should-see-a

Wayne Borean


Excellent reporting on Trump's changing Immigration policies. The White Supremecist part of his backing will go ballistic.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/08/21/it-sure-sounds-like-donald-trump-is-considering-his-biggest-flip-flop-yet/?tid=pm_politics_pop_b

Winter

It seems the racialists are curently still thrilled about becoming mainstream:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/8/21/1562346/-WaPo-Racialists-Are-Cheered-by-Trump-s-Latest-Strategy-Scary-Stuff

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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