Peak Trump - Manafort No Longer In Charge - Trump Has Removed Only Sane Leader He Had

So in the US Political race. We're just hearing that Trump has removed Paul Manafort from being in charge of his Campaign. He isn't firing Manafort - but Manafort was never on his payroll, he is a 'volunteer' (if you believe that, he also seems to be paid by Putin, so its more likely Manafort is there to guard Putin's investment of $300 Million that Putin loaned Trump in past months). But Trump no longer has his Campaign managed by Manafort. So we need to take a pause and consider this development.

First. This is huge. It is the biggest admission of 'a total disaster' that any Campaign can do. There is no bigger signal from the Campaign, that its all going wrong, than to fire the Campaign Manager. And to be clear, nobody has ever done this move, at this late stage in a US Presidential race by a major party, in the modern era. But far far worse, Trump JUST tried this gambit two months ago, when he fired Cory Lewandowski, his previous Campaign boss. And to be clear on the nomenclature, Lewandowski worked with the title of Campaign Manager until he was formally fired. At that time Manafort also was at the campaign, but Manafort was under the title of Campaign Chairman, nominally at a higher position than Lewandowski. And now we don't yet know what his title will be (probably the same) but while Manafort was running Trump's campaign since Lewandowski was ousted, now he won't do that anymore. Now Trump is bringing in a trio of media guys, led by his old friend, recently fired Fox News boss, Roger Ailes.

So again, first. The firing (or removing of) the Campaign boss is an admission by the Campaign that it is in total disaster stage. It is in catastrophic and possibly fatal operation. That it is in deep shit. And Trump's Campaign obviously is. He is more behind in polling at this point, mid August, than any recent politician of the two major parties has ever been. And that is fatal indeed. Nobody has ever come back from being this far behind. In fact, for the past dozen or so elections, no candidate has come to win the popular vote if they were behind AT ALL, about one week from now. When measured as one month after the end of the Conventions, the candidate who was ahead at that point, won the popular vote of every election in as far as most of us can remember. And Hillary is more ahead than anyone as far as they've done polls. Its pretty safe to say, Trump's campaign is a disaster, wrapped inside a catastrophy, inside a nightmare.

Now. Lewandowski was an idiot, he was a disaster as Campaign boss and deserved to be fired. The team inside knew this, Trump's kids knew this, and it was only obstinate Trump who held onto Lewandowski far too long. What was Manafort. In a Campaign that is at best seen as the Keystone Cops, because the loonie Candidate is not willing to be disciplined, and is woefully ill-prepared for even this stage of the race, the only sensible manager of the whole clown circus was Manafort. I think he's a despicable person and he lies systematically when he speaks in public, but we do know what he brought to the Campaign after Lewandowski was ousted. Manafort brougtht some, slight, discipline and sense. And we know also that this was driving Trump nuts. He hated being managed by Manafort. So he would of course constantly 'escape his leash' and not use the Teleprompter, and go on his wild Twitter rants, etc.

The tiny Campaign staff is already suicidal. They know they're in a sinking ship and their career futures are ruined by this futile run. But they did see that Manafort brought sense into the chaos that was with Lewandowski. They also can see from the daily internal struggle that Manafort was the sensible one and Trump is the moron. So now what happens. Trump fires the only sane person on their team. And in his place, he brings three outsiders who have never run a political campaign. But who are known serial liars and spin-doctors who wouldn't know a truth if it was delivered to them in a private sermon by Jesus Christ himself.

Now WHY did this happen? Its been growing. I told you exactly a month ago, 18 July, that the VP roll-selection and roll-out, run by Manafort, rubbed Trump the wrong way, and I said I didn't think Trump will keep Manafort. That they were not compatible. The Convention in Cleveland was a disaster and falls to Manafort's feet for the most part. Manafort was the man who wanted closer ties to the Republican party and the Convention had a lot of what Trump didn't much care for - the party unification attempts. Trump wanted just a show of superstars (we recall, he was able to secure the speech of Scott Baio. Scott Baio who was a second level 'star' in a 1970s TV sitcom only watched for its superstar 'the Fonz' Fonzie played by Henry Winkler. So Scott Baio. When you can't get Gary Busey to step in for Chuck Norris to cover for Clint Eastwood talking to an empty chair. Thats the real power of Donald Trump. He can get us Scott Baio. When Trump really tries). The speech plagiarism scandal with Melania stealing from Obama's wife's speech - about the worst slap in the face for Trump, imaginable. That was Manafort's fault. He didn't write the speech, but someone working for Manafort should have run the speech through Google... And after the Convention, I think Trump had already decided, he didn't like Manafort's influence and the annoying need to 'control' Trump. They clearly feuded for the next three weeks about Teleprompter or no, and whether Trump was allowed to go to Twitter, etc. I think its also telling that where the family was united to get rid of Lewandowski - and insisted dad fire Lewandowski and keep Manafort when those two were offering conflicting advice, today Ivanka is conveniently in Europe (on holiday with, get this, Putin's girlfriend, who is also Rupert Murdoch's ex-wife. How incestuous ARE the Trumps?)

So I am guessing its all smiles at the Trump Headquarters today (sarcasm). Trump's discipline will now improve (sarcasm). His failing campaign will now improve (sarcasm). Trump's sillyness will end (sarcasm). Trump's astronomically slight chances of winning in November will improve (sarcasm). But unfortunately for us, it means Manafort will have far more time to annoy us with his systematic lies as a Trump spokesperson on all TV channels. But for Trump Campaign troubles. I think it is safe to say, the more we see unfiltered real Trump, the more he will just repel even more voters. We can expect we've just witnessed 'Peak Trump'. It will be down-hill from here.

I think Trump had an epiphany last Wednesday night. From Thursday he was morose on the campaign trail, suddenly talking of having problems, and of being behind in Pennsylvania and Florida (Trump cannot win the election if he loses either of those two states, he's behind by TONS in both of them). And he's sounded far more downcast since then. He now is talking constantly about a rigged game, as if to set the stage that he knows he will lose, and try to deflect the fault. That it was not his fault. Also Roger Ailes and two other media dudes? If Trump had not worked on TrumpTV as his next ruse after November 8, I betcha that is now his top priority.

So yeah. The situation is going from bad to worse to even worse for the Trumpster. And we're only in mid August.

Comments

[Winter]

@grouch
"How did our voters become so credulous?"

Two causes:
1) A education that fails students on every level due to parents who see ignorance as a virtue and do not want to pay the taxes it takes to fund a good scholing system.

2) Mushroom journalism: Keep the in the dark and feed them manure. Combined with an audience that does not want to hear anything thry do not agree with.

Btw, this holds true for the UK with their reliance on an elitist "public" (private) scholing system and politicized ownership of the media.

[grouch]

Winter:

I think you are correct in your assessment.

In the U.S., the trouble has been exacerbated by one (1) party which has for several decades convinced people to vote against their own interests. For example, Reagan stole lunch money from school children to build missiles, of which we already had an excess, and then, later, further raided domestic funding to destroy those missiles according to treaty.

I'm in agreement with President Obama when he stated that George H. W. Bush (Bush the Elder) hasn't received enough credit for his accomplishments. He was the first to label Reagan's trickle down economic policy as "voodoo economics". He may be the last moderate Republican the U.S. will see in my lifetime. The lunatic fringe has hijacked the Republican party through trumped-up yellow press. Compromise, the art of politics, is abhorrent to them as they hold the country hostage for their demands of religious and economic extremism.

Hopefully, the Democrats are really listening and returning to their roots of center, left. I also hope they don't suffer hijacking by their own lunatic fringe before a true Republican party can be reborn.

[grouch]

Well, if Trump won't act like Trump for Tomi's predictions, a surrogate will have to do:

Trump Surrogate Snidely Suggests African American Voters Prefer 'A Backdrop With A Burning Car'

[...]
She stopped him short, saying, "I have to stop you because you said he's going there. He's not, he's in Diamondale, which is 93 percent white. When he was in Milwaukee the other day, it was part of Milwaukee that wasn't dealing -- I mean, it's almost completely white."

Kingston retorted, "Maybe it would have been nice if he went and had a backdrop with a burning car."
[...]

http://crooksandliars.com/2016/08/trump-surrogate-snidely-suggests-african

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi Everybody

NY Times has calculated the same period TV ad spend Trump Campaign vs Hillary in the 4 states where Trump now clearly is advertising (I don't see any evidence of Virginia happening). So Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. In the next 3 weeks Trump runs 4 million dollars of TV ads in those 4 states, Hillary runs 12 million dollars of ads in the same states.

This does not include SuperPAC TV ad spend. Trump's spend according to Ad Age calculation on reserved ads going forward is about twice as big as his supporting SuperPACs and other advertisers like the NRA, combined. So for the period, perhaps around 6 Million dollars in total (my guess). And Hillary's Campaign spend on TV ads is about 1/3 the size of her SuperPACS so total TV ads for Hillary in the 3 week period in these 4 states could be of magnitude around 36 million dollars. Perhaps 6 to 1 TV ad superiority still, but at least Trump is on the board now, with what has to be seen as relatively modest TV ad spend.

BTW the ad has immediately drawn ridicule from fact-checkers such as a full 4 Pinocchios and producing a new lie every 5 seconds, etc. There is also gossip that Roger Ailes did not like the first ads cut by Manafort, Ailes thinking they were too tame. We don't know if this ad is the Manafort idea or the Ailes idea. But I think its safe to say, Trump will get even more nasty in his upcoming TV ads.

PS - on her online ads, Hillary is already test-running an ad which mocks Trump for his 'regrets' running a series of Trump explicit statements of what he at least does NOT regret (no regrets about John McCain or the Khan Family etc).

But yeah, looking forward to more of the data on the race. Also we should see fund-raising final totals any moment now..

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Eduardo M]

Trump's personality:

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/06/the-mind-of-donald-trump/480771/

[Eduardo M]

Trump supporters lack hope:

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/08/donald-trump-manufacturing-jobs-hope/496541/

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi Everybody

So the money race. We have now the SuperPACs reporting and the party organizations. Hillary's main SuperPAC took in LESS money in July than in June (a bit weird, considering their successful Convention?) but they still took in 9.3 million dollars. The 3 SuperPACs that support Trump took in about 6.5 million dollars.

Then the parties, the Democrats took in 32 million dollars, the Republicans 27 million dollars. When we add the previous info on the actual Campaigns (Hillary 89 million Trump 82 million) we get the July money race as:

Hillary and affiliated Democratic party and SuperPAC fund-raising $130 million
Trump and affiliated Republican party and SuperPAC fund-raising $116 million

Its not a big lead by the Democrats but on every scale they are (still) ahead. Note also that the Republican SuperPACs pay higher salaries than Democrats; and the Trump Campaign pays actual salaries to Trump and tons of his family, plus plenty of expenses into his family, so actual 'cash to spend' is a bit more in the Democrats' favor, but still, this is no longer a totally dominating race. As of now Hillary and the Democrats are about 12% ahead (in the month of July) but they entered the period FAR ahead, and this still adds, although only modestly, to their lead.

This is still unprecedented, because even in 2012, when Obama broke his own record for fund-raising (where usually the Republicans raise far more than Democrats) it was still the REPUBLICAN PARTY which outraised the Democratic party in 2012. While Obama got money for himself, the party was doing poorly. Partly, that may be also because the Democrats in 2012 ran away from Obama. But still.

So now, its not just that Hillary is ahead of Trump, for the first time ever, also the Democratic party is running ahead of the Republicans. That said, the difference is not remarkably big. I expected it to be more.

The main benefit in the campaign cash race, is that Team Hillary has been pre-booking TV ad time early, getting lower rates than the Republicans now booking ad time against them. But in terms of total money raised, the Republicans are ramping up faster than Democrats and we may find August numbers (reported in late September) to be just about neck-and-neck.

This does not turn the landslide catastrophic Trump loss into a competitive race, but once again, what was a huge enormous massive lead by Hillary and team, is now tightening. As Trump also has managed to stay on message for four days with relatively few blunders, at least Trump isn't punching new holes into the sinking Titanic..

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi Everybody

CORRECTION. I used the wrong numbers. The 89 and 82 million numbers included the shared fund-raising. Sorry. We now have both campaigns releasing their actual July final fund-raising. So lets do that math again

So the money race. We have now the SuperPACs reporting and the party organizations. Hillary's main SuperPAC took in LESS money in July than in June (a bit weird, considering their successful Convention?) but they still took in 9.3 million dollars. The 3 SuperPACs that support Trump took in about 6.5 million dollars.

Then the parties, the Democrats took in 32 million dollars, the Republicans 27 million dollars. When we add the previous info on the actual Campaigns (Hillary 52.3 million Trump 36.7 million) we get the July money race as:

Hillary and affiliated Democratic party and SuperPAC fund-raising $94 million
Trump and affiliated Republican party and SuperPAC fund-raising $70 million

So the difference is a bit bigger in Hillary's and the Democrats' favor - 34% stronger fund-raising. That sounds like a sizable lead and as its on all parts - Hillary Campaign our-raises the Trump Campaign; the Democrats with Hillary outraise Trump with Republicans; and the SuperPAC for Hillary outraises the 3 SuperPACs for Trump - this is a pretty good sign for Democrats for July but Trump is chasing them. 30% is not a safe lead with still 80 days to go in the race. Hillary and the Democrats entered the period with more money in the bank and they also now have more in the bank.

Now on the SPENDING, Trump has a particularly weird entry, he paid 8 million to a Texas internet company nobody has heard from. It could be a scam that Trump is using to funnel campaign money out to his own pocket via a dummy corporation. 8 million leakage - come on, Trump has nothing spectacular at all online to justify that (its twice the amount Trump is spending now on TV ADS !!!) so its one QUARTER of the money that came in. Weird, weird, weird.

So if there is something awesome happening online that justifies this massive expenditure, maybe Trump has some kind of secret weapon but ... but ... if thats money he's just pilfering from his campaign then Hillary & team is ACTUALLY up by 52% in the month of July haha.

But even at 30% down, Trump is not making any ground, he's still falling further behind in this race with just over two and a half months to go. He is losing, bigly.

Ok, more as we find it

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Wayne Borean]

CNN has some commentary on Trump

http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/20/opinions/trump-turnaround-wont-be-easy-zelizer/index.html

[cornelius]

Here is more info on the money race:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/trump-paid-dearly-to-boost-fundraising-227236

It contains stuff not mentioned by Tomi such as Lewandowski still being on Trump's payroll at 20.000 dollars monthly rate.

[Wayne Borean]

A Louisiana resident has some words for Trump about his visit.

http://www.rawstory.com/2016/08/where-is-the-fcking-check-louisiana-relief-worker-spits-fire-over-trumps-flood-zone-photo-op/

[Wayne Borean]

McMullin is on the ballot for four states, and is working on the rest.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/evan-mcmullin-iowa-louisiana-ballots-227224

[Wayne Borean]

Alice Cooper for President!

http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/19/politics/alice-cooper-elected-running-for-president/index.html

[grouch]

The link is pretty descriptive all by itself.

http://www.alternet.org/culture/washington-man-stabs-kissing-interracial-couple-cites-donald-trump-when-arrested

[Millard Filmore]

@Tomi: "Now on the SPENDING, Trump has a particularly weird entry,"

Do the reports show if Trump's kids still pulling in their salary while they take a long vacation?

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi everybody

From my Twitter comments (my comments to someone else).. I notices a bizarre aspect, am sure many others also have already noted it, but it struck me.

So Trump fired Manafort for not letting Trump be Trump. Now new Campaign boss the Breitbart guy Bannon and the nominal Campaign 'Manager' (in reality pollster and message director) KellyAnne Conway have supposedly done what Trump wants. So we have seen nearly a week now of 'Let Trump be Trump'.

And what did we see? Trump did 5 days straight on Teleprompter (he hates that). He said he has regrets (while not specifying and definitely not apologizing) but yeah. Trump hates that. Then he suddenly did appeals to blacks. Now his latest is to suggest he won't round up the illegals and deport them.

Would Manafort have wanted those things? Most definitely yes. How is this 'Let Trump be Trump'? Its not. The new team has gotten Trump to drink the medicine the old boss couldn't get done. Because why? Manafort was already out and Trump refused to listen to him from the end of the Convention (as I suggested). Trump did all these 'sane' things but only after he tossed Manafort. AND this is TOTALLY not 'Let Trump be Trump'. He HATES this.

And how is his echo chamber taking it. They're confused and lost and starting to grumble. Soon they will be in revolt. They want the old Trump back and they don't want to see a pivot now.

Can Trump do a successful pivot from being the most bigoted, most racist, most ill-prepared and most erratic Candidate to run on a major ticket at this stage of the race, in the modern era - to win over Moderate and Independent voters in the middle. No, of course not. He has 400 days of his vile hatred on videotape and now anything he says rings hollow. It MAY get some who were queasy on the middle to 'stay' with Trump and not depart. The wobbly right-edge of the middle that wasn't happy with Racist Trump.

But it means the right wing will feel burned and they will not like it. So their enthusiasm decreases. They will not show up to vote as much, the net result is his polling takes a further hit with no gains. The money takes a further hit because the hard core loyalists - on the edge - will not send money while the wobbly middle won't dare throw money into this risky venture. And the rich Republican money has long since decided this is a lost cause.

This cannot last. Trump HATES this type of campaigning. He is trying to sound reasonable but it gets him nothing. Trump will read the polls for a week or two and then decide, this is not working - and then 'Campaign Manager' KellyAnne Conway will be demoted in reality, back to pollster only, while she'll get to keep her job title until Trump suddenly gets angry at her, and hires someone else to get that job title, once the polling gets even worse.

But the PIVOTs to blacks, to Hispanics. The ridicule he's getting on the regrets. The Teleprompter speeches. This will not last long. And when it goes, so too goes this option. Because then Trump becomes the man who cried wolf. Nothing he says, will be trusted by anyone (while all is on videotape). And it becomes a vicious cycle where he just shrinks his ever-smaller support base.

I may be wrong, we'll see. But Trump HATES this type of campaign he's doing right now. There was an event where his audience started to leave before Trump had finished speaking. Some of his audience are vocal already about not liking the Teleprompter speeches. And now the racist edge of Trump's support, the strictly White Supremacists, they are becoming unhappy that Trump is moving away from his racist talk about blacks and Hispanics. But if Trump goes back to 'old Trump' then all this turns out to have been a week-long ruse to the minorities.

This could have worked in June or even July. It should have been part of the Convention. Now it is too little and too late to get Trump GAINS in support. But now, it does open up fresh leaks of support out of his base. And because this is what Trump himself hates, I cannot see this lasting long. He will abandon the Teleprompter 'Kinder-Gentler' Trump who loves blacks and Hispanics - and will go back to being Archie Bunker.

So in some way this is the TV sitcom episode of the 'evil twin'. Trump has a family black sheep who is the white sheep, the Twin of Donald, Ronald Trump, who is the white sheep who is a good Christian, who loves all people, volunteers time and money, is not bigoted racist pig. And after this episode, that evil twin will be gone haha. It was not real. Episode ends with Trump waking up from a nightmare haha

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Millard Filmore]

more information on Trumps odd expenditure on his digital presence:

http://digbysblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/wheres-money-go.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/08/21/trump-campaign-has-biggest-spending-month-yet-but-clinton-still-dominates-financially/?postshare=5581471760104576&tid=ss_tw

[Wayne Borean]

Op-Ed saying that the Mormon Church should issue a statement about Donald Trump's lack of fitness to be President.

http://www.sltrib.com/opinion/4254002-155/op-ed-lds-church-should-see-a

[Wayne Borean]

Excellent reporting on Trump's changing Immigration policies. The White Supremecist part of his backing will go ballistic.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/08/21/it-sure-sounds-like-donald-trump-is-considering-his-biggest-flip-flop-yet/?tid=pm_politics_pop_b

[Winter]

It seems the racialists are curently still thrilled about becoming mainstream:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/8/21/1562346/-WaPo-Racialists-Are-Cheered-by-Trump-s-Latest-Strategy-Scary-Stuff