Peak Trump - Manafort No Longer In Charge - Trump Has Removed Only Sane Leader He Had

So in the US Political race. We're just hearing that Trump has removed Paul Manafort from being in charge of his Campaign. He isn't firing Manafort - but Manafort was never on his payroll, he is a 'volunteer' (if you believe that, he also seems to be paid by Putin, so its more likely Manafort is there to guard Putin's investment of $300 Million that Putin loaned Trump in past months). But Trump no longer has his Campaign managed by Manafort. So we need to take a pause and consider this development.

First. This is huge. It is the biggest admission of 'a total disaster' that any Campaign can do. There is no bigger signal from the Campaign, that its all going wrong, than to fire the Campaign Manager. And to be clear, nobody has ever done this move, at this late stage in a US Presidential race by a major party, in the modern era. But far far worse, Trump JUST tried this gambit two months ago, when he fired Cory Lewandowski, his previous Campaign boss. And to be clear on the nomenclature, Lewandowski worked with the title of Campaign Manager until he was formally fired. At that time Manafort also was at the campaign, but Manafort was under the title of Campaign Chairman, nominally at a higher position than Lewandowski. And now we don't yet know what his title will be (probably the same) but while Manafort was running Trump's campaign since Lewandowski was ousted, now he won't do that anymore. Now Trump is bringing in a trio of media guys, led by his old friend, recently fired Fox News boss, Roger Ailes.

So again, first. The firing (or removing of) the Campaign boss is an admission by the Campaign that it is in total disaster stage. It is in catastrophic and possibly fatal operation. That it is in deep shit. And Trump's Campaign obviously is. He is more behind in polling at this point, mid August, than any recent politician of the two major parties has ever been. And that is fatal indeed. Nobody has ever come back from being this far behind. In fact, for the past dozen or so elections, no candidate has come to win the popular vote if they were behind AT ALL, about one week from now. When measured as one month after the end of the Conventions, the candidate who was ahead at that point, won the popular vote of every election in as far as most of us can remember. And Hillary is more ahead than anyone as far as they've done polls. Its pretty safe to say, Trump's campaign is a disaster, wrapped inside a catastrophy, inside a nightmare.

Now. Lewandowski was an idiot, he was a disaster as Campaign boss and deserved to be fired. The team inside knew this, Trump's kids knew this, and it was only obstinate Trump who held onto Lewandowski far too long. What was Manafort. In a Campaign that is at best seen as the Keystone Cops, because the loonie Candidate is not willing to be disciplined, and is woefully ill-prepared for even this stage of the race, the only sensible manager of the whole clown circus was Manafort. I think he's a despicable person and he lies systematically when he speaks in public, but we do know what he brought to the Campaign after Lewandowski was ousted. Manafort brougtht some, slight, discipline and sense. And we know also that this was driving Trump nuts. He hated being managed by Manafort. So he would of course constantly 'escape his leash' and not use the Teleprompter, and go on his wild Twitter rants, etc.

The tiny Campaign staff is already suicidal. They know they're in a sinking ship and their career futures are ruined by this futile run. But they did see that Manafort brought sense into the chaos that was with Lewandowski. They also can see from the daily internal struggle that Manafort was the sensible one and Trump is the moron. So now what happens. Trump fires the only sane person on their team. And in his place, he brings three outsiders who have never run a political campaign. But who are known serial liars and spin-doctors who wouldn't know a truth if it was delivered to them in a private sermon by Jesus Christ himself.

Now WHY did this happen? Its been growing. I told you exactly a month ago, 18 July, that the VP roll-selection and roll-out, run by Manafort, rubbed Trump the wrong way, and I said I didn't think Trump will keep Manafort. That they were not compatible. The Convention in Cleveland was a disaster and falls to Manafort's feet for the most part. Manafort was the man who wanted closer ties to the Republican party and the Convention had a lot of what Trump didn't much care for - the party unification attempts. Trump wanted just a show of superstars (we recall, he was able to secure the speech of Scott Baio. Scott Baio who was a second level 'star' in a 1970s TV sitcom only watched for its superstar 'the Fonz' Fonzie played by Henry Winkler. So Scott Baio. When you can't get Gary Busey to step in for Chuck Norris to cover for Clint Eastwood talking to an empty chair. Thats the real power of Donald Trump. He can get us Scott Baio. When Trump really tries). The speech plagiarism scandal with Melania stealing from Obama's wife's speech - about the worst slap in the face for Trump, imaginable. That was Manafort's fault. He didn't write the speech, but someone working for Manafort should have run the speech through Google... And after the Convention, I think Trump had already decided, he didn't like Manafort's influence and the annoying need to 'control' Trump. They clearly feuded for the next three weeks about Teleprompter or no, and whether Trump was allowed to go to Twitter, etc. I think its also telling that where the family was united to get rid of Lewandowski - and insisted dad fire Lewandowski and keep Manafort when those two were offering conflicting advice, today Ivanka is conveniently in Europe (on holiday with, get this, Putin's girlfriend, who is also Rupert Murdoch's ex-wife. How incestuous ARE the Trumps?)

So I am guessing its all smiles at the Trump Headquarters today (sarcasm). Trump's discipline will now improve (sarcasm). His failing campaign will now improve (sarcasm). Trump's sillyness will end (sarcasm). Trump's astronomically slight chances of winning in November will improve (sarcasm). But unfortunately for us, it means Manafort will have far more time to annoy us with his systematic lies as a Trump spokesperson on all TV channels. But for Trump Campaign troubles. I think it is safe to say, the more we see unfiltered real Trump, the more he will just repel even more voters. We can expect we've just witnessed 'Peak Trump'. It will be down-hill from here.

I think Trump had an epiphany last Wednesday night. From Thursday he was morose on the campaign trail, suddenly talking of having problems, and of being behind in Pennsylvania and Florida (Trump cannot win the election if he loses either of those two states, he's behind by TONS in both of them). And he's sounded far more downcast since then. He now is talking constantly about a rigged game, as if to set the stage that he knows he will lose, and try to deflect the fault. That it was not his fault. Also Roger Ailes and two other media dudes? If Trump had not worked on TrumpTV as his next ruse after November 8, I betcha that is now his top priority.

So yeah. The situation is going from bad to worse to even worse for the Trumpster. And we're only in mid August.

Comments

[cornelius]

A Trump adviser made anti-Semitic remarks. We know that Trump hires the best people, so is this an accident?

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/trump-adviser-accused-anti-semitism

[grouch]

The lies Trump told this week: from opposing the Iraq war to San Bernardino

Trump shares more false memories from the Iraq war and Middle Eastern politics and welcomes Nato’s ‘new’ terrorism division – which has existed since 2004

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/aug/19/trump-fact-check-iraq-war-san-bernardino-nato

[Eduardo M]

The trouble with Trump pivoting to the center is it would anger his base, and perhaps that would lead many of them to stay home on election day.

The other problem is the people in the center remember the old Trump, and have no particular reason to believe that if he was elected he would not just revert back to his old ways.

So the upshot of the pivot might just be he would lose present voters and not gain any new ones.

[Wayne Borean]

@Eduardo M

A Trump pivot to the centre is unlikely to cost any votes. One major Religious Right leader put it like this.

Yes, we might not get everything we want from Donald Trump, but we are guaranteed we'll get nothing we want from Hillary Clinton.

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi everybody

Ok Manafort resigned. First. 'Resigned' not 'Fired'. Lewandowski was fired. Trump saw all the damage around Putin and Russia related to Manafort - and did NOT fire him. But accepted Manafort's resignation. And Trump still keeps two other pro-Putin staffers. Ok, this means the damage around Russia and Putin will linger, but if Putin makes ANY move - and Ukraine is looking hairy - that will come to haunt Trump. He should have fired Manafort with a fiery angry press conference, if Trump wanted to separate himself from Russia and Putin. So there is a FRESH time bomb ticking in Trump's remaining 80 days.

The Trump 5.0 reset and pivot is now four days of Teleprompter speeches and no wild Twitter Tweets. This is 'let Trump be Trump?' ??? I cannot imagine this holding.

Trump went to Louisiana. Its a predictable campaign political photo-op. It is against the express wishes of the Louisiana Governor. I'd say it was still a good move by Trump because he got there before Obama and Hillary, both of whom were respecting the Governor's request to let the state deal with the floods for two weeks before visiting, because obviously a high profile Presidential level visit means that the distressed state has to put scarce police resources to keep the visit safe. Trump apparently brought six boxes of food. SIX .. not 'pallets' of food, even six pallets of food would have been pretty lousy use of his Boeing 767 which could bring ten times that but six BOXES. Ie Trump brought that little relief to Louisiana that would fit one large suitcase.. Schmuck.

On next days, Trump is speaking in Michigan, Texas and Mississippi. Did someone say he is doing TV ads in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Virginia? Yeah. Trump is campaigning in Michigan, a state he will not win; and Texas and Mississippi, two VERY red states that even Hillary will have a hard time winning even if she gets a big double-digit landslide. But Trump has 80 days left, he wastes 3 of them (4% of his remaining time) in three states which are not the battleground. Plus Louisiana, another red state. Donald J Trump: Political Genius.

Trump's first TV ad is now online. Its on the theme of immgirants taking over America. If it does anything, that TV ad will appeal to Trump's base. It will not help at all to appeal to moderates or any minorities.

Talking of minorities, how's this for irony. For a speech where Trump talks about wanting blacks to vote for him, a brown person in a Trump T-shirt was denied entry to the event. He's a registered Republican. Yeah, Trump asks brown people to vote for him, because 'take a chance!' - but yeah, his rallies - are literally 'no brown people allowed' ??? Make America Great Again. Or as any white racist reads that message: Make America White Again.

Oh, in the policy front, yes, Trump is now willing to deport American citizens who don't conform to his own silly citizenship tests for immigrants. I take it this means Trump will self-deport himself...

The Breitbart guy who is the boss of the new guys who came in, Bannon I think is his name (do we really need to memorize his name, he'll be fired in only four weeks, or less). So we learn more about him. He used the word 'cunt' to describe Republican women. Yeah, for Trump with a gender gap, this sounds like the perfect person to take over Trump's campaign.

So Trump went from someone utterly incompetent Lewandowski, to a Putin stooge Manafort, to now a Nazi White Supremacist Bannon. Trump really 'knows the best people' yes. Again this is the Trump dictionary use of 'best' in the same way as Trump U was a 'university' and six bankruptcies including several casinos, is 'success'. Who is next in line for Trump? I would not be surprised if Trump brings in David Duke by October

Trump's personal campaigning again IS NOT CONSISTENT with a Presidential run. It IS consistent with solidifying his base support. White racist voters. Trump knows he will lose, he is now burning bridges and building the 'revolution' to power his plan, whatever it is, most likely yes a TV network run by Roger Ailes and having Bannon as one of its on-air personalities, as well as Lewandowski (who is still paid by Trump even though he is used by CNN to comment, and whose Non-Disclosure contract with Trump forbids Lewandoswki from talking about anything of the Trump campaign that he might actually know). That woman pollster who is now the nominal 'Campaign Manager' (but second fiddle under Bannon) is another TV talking head. I forget her name now.

BTW several of the Electoral College maps show a hopeless run for Trump. RCP, Sabato and CNN have all now their maps so, that of 'leaning Hillary' states - with leads bigger than 5% - are so solid, she gets to over 270 EV votes even if she loses all 'tossup states'. Under ANY normal conditions the election is already over. Only a seismic event, Hillary health episode or Trump debate victory or some terrorist attack might change the election dynamic. I think it was either Sabato or the RCP guy on a news chat show, who said that if Hillary only wins states where she holds a 9% - NINE PERCENT - lead, she gets 273 EV votes. She can lose every state where she is up by between 0.1% and 8.9% and she still wins the Presidency. The election is already decided.

Oh, and Hillary has just started to run Putin-Trump bromance ads. OUCH. Timing, timing, this is very very VERY dangerous for Trump if Putin makes ANY move in Ukraine.

What Trump is doing is not helping him, BUT its not hurting him either. What Hillary is doing, is skewering Trump. Trump's campaign is not doing the things it HAS TO DO. And yes, even his TV ads are dumb, bad ads, and running partly in the wrong places (many pundits are saying wasting TV ads in Virginia is madness, he'll never win that state). And Trump's personal appearances, Texas, Mississippi and Michigan - idiotic at this stage. Louisiana? May be a wash but it won't win him anything. I think he'll take a lot of flak for going to LA when its Governor asked politicians not to come.

Thats whats up. But Manafort is gone. However, even Manafort's departure is mismanaged by Trump, in a way that leaves Trump vulnerable to more Manafort aftershocks.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Tomi T Ahonen]

PS

Very relevant point. Lewandowski 'let Trump be Trump' so Trump's natural instinct to pursue every personal slight as a blood feud vendetta against all Republicans was par for the course. That was the old normal up through May.

Then Manafort replaced Lewandowski with 'pivot towards the Republican party' and it was Manafort who convinced Trump to stop feuds with Susana Martinez and John McCain and Paul Ryan and Kelly Ayotte etc. And to invite Ted Cruz to speak even when Cruz was not going to endorse - and to force Trump to not take his choice, Chris Christie, but rather a guy Trump doesn't respect in the least, Mike Pence as his VP. That was all Manafort. The only reason there is something nearing a truce between the GOP leadership and Trump - was Manafort. He's now gone.

Is he replaced by someone who wants peace between Trump and the GOP? No. Breitbart has been the poster child pushing a wedge between Trump and the GOP. If Manafort was able to muffle Trump and calm his instincts to lash out at Republicans, Bannon will rather encourage Trump to go full steam ahead.

The tenuous cease-fire between the GOP leadership and Trump's Campaign will burst into full war again. The point is, those attending Trump's RALLIES will love this - they hate the Washington DC mob as having sold them out. So any vibes that Trump senses, will always push to get more heated in his attacks and rhetoric against Republicans. And now the last sane voice inside his party has departed.

Its like being an alcoholic at a party. You asked your AA friend to come and stand by you, to stop you from drinking. He's left. But what you have instead - is the other friend who is also an alcoholic but never even joined the AA, who is pouring you the drinks.

We should be headed to a wild week or so.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi everybody

We will see an interesting test now. There has never been a case before where one side did so much TV advertising and the other side did none. Now that Trump is going up on the air - Politico has a detailed article showing how much he's spending - they only count four states (may be that Trump understood its silly to try for Virginia) but a total of 4 million dollars in TV ads going now on the air in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. As Hillary advertises in more states, and most states do not get intense ads, we can see how this ad effort impacts these 4 states, compared to Trump overall, nationally.

So lets mark this moment in time. RCP 4-way race has nation today at

In Florida 4 way Hillary up 4.0% (polls only August)
In Ohio 4 way Hillary up 2.2% (polls July & August)
In Pennsylvania 4 way Hillary up 8.9% (polls July & August)
In North Carolina 4 way Hillary up 5.5% (only taking the 2 polls of Aug, not the one from June)

Nationally, in 4 way race Hillary is up 5.5% (polls only August)

So now we can see, by all 'reason' whatever changes in polling plus or minus for Trump into the next week or two, they should move more favorably for Hillary outside of those four states, ie the national number should be better than the numbers for those 4 specific states. It could be that Hillary improves or Trump improves (or both) but if TV advertising DOES matter, then those four states, FL, OH, NC and PA should see Trump doing 'better' than the national average, regardless of which 'direction' those polls might go.

It will be an intersting test

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Wayne Borean]

A guy I know is writing a series of books about the Time Patrol.

Bob Mayer specializes in Science Fiction and Thrillers. He's a damned good writer. His newest, due out 9/11 this year is about this election...

http://bobmayer.com/possibility-palace.html

[Wayne Borean]

I've talked about how religion is impacting the election. For those who aren't familiar with the various sects involved, here's a couple of datapoints. Mormons tend to be Conservative in outlook, but they are more like Catholics or Episcopalians.

Evangelicals have a wildly different outlook. First, Mormons:

http://www.sltrib.com/home/4257761-155/mitt-romney-daffy-duck-some-utah?fullpage=1

Mormons at one time were as prejudiced as the rest of White America, but that has changed.

Most people think that Evangelicals got involved with politics because of abortion. That is incorrect, Evangelicals got involved in politics because the I.R.S. wanted to cut tax deductions for segregated Evangelical colleges. The colleges sued the I.R.S. and the case went all the way to the Supreme Court, which ruled against the colleges.

http://www.patheos.com/blogs/daylightatheism/2016/08/the-white-supremacist-roots-of-evangelicalism/

Add to this the slow takeover of parts of the Evangelical movement by Domininists.

http://fiddlrts.blogspot.ca/2016/05/dominionism-and-evangelicalism-part-1.html

As I stated in an earlier post, the Evangelical leaders know they won't get everything they want from Trump. They do know that they'll get nothing from Clinton, so from their point of view the answer is simple. Tell everyone to vote Trump.

[Millard Filmore]

@Wayne: "Evangelical leaders know they won't get everything they want from Trump. They do know that they'll get nothing from Clinton, so from their point of view the answer is simple. Tell everyone to vote Trump."

Ummm, they think the answer to their problems is to sell their soul for the off chance they might be able to serve their Lord?

[Winter]

As expected from the start, Manafort is a giant liability:

Inside the fall of Paul Manafort
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/paul-manafort-fall-trump-campaign-227212

(Personally, I think he is a traitor)

[grouch]

Is Trump sick? The Trump ‘medical letter’ shows every sign of being a fake

[...]
The letter also has problems with sentence structure and major typographical errors, such as the opening line, “To Whom my concern.” Most amusing, it says that his medical examination of Trump has “only positive results.” In medical terms, if the test is positive, it confirms the existence of disease. Is this doctor saying Trump has every medical ailment that could be found in examination? Does he not know the meaning of the word? Or, as I suspect, was the letter written by someone in the Trump campaign?
[...]

http://www.rawstory.com/2016/08/is-trump-sick-the-trump-medical-letter-shows-every-sign-of-being-a-fake/

[grouch]

http://www.ipetitions.com/petition/does-donald-trump-have-alzheimers

[grouch]

Judge Orders Written Testimony From Hillary Clinton on Emails

[...]
A spokesman for Mrs. Clinton’s campaign, Brian Fallon, sharply criticized Judicial Watch’s legal campaign, saying it was “a right-wing organization that has been attacking the Clintons since the 1990s.”
[...]

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/20/us/politics/hillary-clinton-judge-emails.html

[grouch]

Trump’s Empire: a Maze of Debts and Opaque Ties

[...]
But an investigation by The New York Times into the financial maze of Mr. Trump’s real estate holdings in the United States reveals that companies he owns have at least $650 million in debt — twice the amount than can be gleaned from public filings he has made as part of his bid for the White House.
[...]

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/21/us/politics/donald-trump-debt.html

[paul]

It looks like even the GOP is saying that is basically game over for Trump.

Republicans prep ‘break glass’ emergency plan as Trump tumbles

Losing hope for the White House, the GOP is exploring a plan to cast congressional candidates as a check on President Hillary Clinton.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/republicans-prep-break-glass-emergency-plan-as-trump-tumbles-227217

[grouch]

What Are Trump And His G.I. Doctor Hiding From Voters?

[...]
Jokes aside about what Trump is full of, or how much he looks forward to being “examined” with a latex glove and KY jelly, men of Trump’s age can suffer from any of those conditions, and should be screened regularly. The fact that a G.I. doctor has been his personal physician for 30 years…it certainly raises a lot of questions.
[...]

http://americannewsx.com/hot-off-the-press/trump-gi-doctor-hiding-from-voters/

[grouch]

Is Donald Trump OK? Erratic behaviour raises mental health questions

As his behaviour grows more bizarre, more and more analysts are asking if there’s something off with the Republican candidate.

[...]
But that brief report explicitly addressed only physical matters like blood pressure, not mental health. And its extreme grandiosity, unprecedented in a campaign medical report, was precisely the kind of eyebrower-raiser that has caused apprehension about his stability.

He boasts of his own unparalleled magnificence. He creates and promotes wild conspiracy theories. He tells easily disprovable lies. He fails to finish sentences before he gets distracted by unrelated thoughts. He appears to fly into a wounded rage at mild criticism.
[...]

https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2016/07/31/is-donald-trump-ok-erratic-behaviour-raises-mental-health-questions.html

[grouch]

We are now entering the Age of Stupid. How did our voters become so credulous?

[...]
American and British politicians at the highest level appear to be engaged in a competition to see who can utter the most defiantly ill-informed, aggressively ignorant statements about precisely the issues that governments have traditionally regarded as life-and-death matters.
[...]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/20/this-is-an-age-of-unprecedented-political-stupidity-how-did-our/

[grouch]

Harold Bornstein, Jacob Bornstein: Trump Letter, Dead Doctor References Raise Questions

[...]
Dr. Gunter and others have noted that in addition to listing the name of the deceased Jacob Bornstein, the letterhead includes a non-functioning website and that its salutation contains a typo, something she stressed that she would be sure to avoid if drafting a letter certifying the health of a presidential candidate. Gunter also noted that few doctors would provide patients with an un-secure Gmail address as part of their contact information.
[...]

http://www.inquisitr.com/3429148/dr-harold-bornstein-dr-jacob-bornstein-trump-letter-dead-doctor-references-raise-questions/