Peak Trump - Manafort No Longer In Charge - Trump Has Removed Only Sane Leader He Had

So in the US Political race. We're just hearing that Trump has removed Paul Manafort from being in charge of his Campaign. He isn't firing Manafort - but Manafort was never on his payroll, he is a 'volunteer' (if you believe that, he also seems to be paid by Putin, so its more likely Manafort is there to guard Putin's investment of $300 Million that Putin loaned Trump in past months). But Trump no longer has his Campaign managed by Manafort. So we need to take a pause and consider this development.

First. This is huge. It is the biggest admission of 'a total disaster' that any Campaign can do. There is no bigger signal from the Campaign, that its all going wrong, than to fire the Campaign Manager. And to be clear, nobody has ever done this move, at this late stage in a US Presidential race by a major party, in the modern era. But far far worse, Trump JUST tried this gambit two months ago, when he fired Cory Lewandowski, his previous Campaign boss. And to be clear on the nomenclature, Lewandowski worked with the title of Campaign Manager until he was formally fired. At that time Manafort also was at the campaign, but Manafort was under the title of Campaign Chairman, nominally at a higher position than Lewandowski. And now we don't yet know what his title will be (probably the same) but while Manafort was running Trump's campaign since Lewandowski was ousted, now he won't do that anymore. Now Trump is bringing in a trio of media guys, led by his old friend, recently fired Fox News boss, Roger Ailes.

So again, first. The firing (or removing of) the Campaign boss is an admission by the Campaign that it is in total disaster stage. It is in catastrophic and possibly fatal operation. That it is in deep shit. And Trump's Campaign obviously is. He is more behind in polling at this point, mid August, than any recent politician of the two major parties has ever been. And that is fatal indeed. Nobody has ever come back from being this far behind. In fact, for the past dozen or so elections, no candidate has come to win the popular vote if they were behind AT ALL, about one week from now. When measured as one month after the end of the Conventions, the candidate who was ahead at that point, won the popular vote of every election in as far as most of us can remember. And Hillary is more ahead than anyone as far as they've done polls. Its pretty safe to say, Trump's campaign is a disaster, wrapped inside a catastrophy, inside a nightmare.

Now. Lewandowski was an idiot, he was a disaster as Campaign boss and deserved to be fired. The team inside knew this, Trump's kids knew this, and it was only obstinate Trump who held onto Lewandowski far too long. What was Manafort. In a Campaign that is at best seen as the Keystone Cops, because the loonie Candidate is not willing to be disciplined, and is woefully ill-prepared for even this stage of the race, the only sensible manager of the whole clown circus was Manafort. I think he's a despicable person and he lies systematically when he speaks in public, but we do know what he brought to the Campaign after Lewandowski was ousted. Manafort brougtht some, slight, discipline and sense. And we know also that this was driving Trump nuts. He hated being managed by Manafort. So he would of course constantly 'escape his leash' and not use the Teleprompter, and go on his wild Twitter rants, etc.

The tiny Campaign staff is already suicidal. They know they're in a sinking ship and their career futures are ruined by this futile run. But they did see that Manafort brought sense into the chaos that was with Lewandowski. They also can see from the daily internal struggle that Manafort was the sensible one and Trump is the moron. So now what happens. Trump fires the only sane person on their team. And in his place, he brings three outsiders who have never run a political campaign. But who are known serial liars and spin-doctors who wouldn't know a truth if it was delivered to them in a private sermon by Jesus Christ himself.

Now WHY did this happen? Its been growing. I told you exactly a month ago, 18 July, that the VP roll-selection and roll-out, run by Manafort, rubbed Trump the wrong way, and I said I didn't think Trump will keep Manafort. That they were not compatible. The Convention in Cleveland was a disaster and falls to Manafort's feet for the most part. Manafort was the man who wanted closer ties to the Republican party and the Convention had a lot of what Trump didn't much care for - the party unification attempts. Trump wanted just a show of superstars (we recall, he was able to secure the speech of Scott Baio. Scott Baio who was a second level 'star' in a 1970s TV sitcom only watched for its superstar 'the Fonz' Fonzie played by Henry Winkler. So Scott Baio. When you can't get Gary Busey to step in for Chuck Norris to cover for Clint Eastwood talking to an empty chair. Thats the real power of Donald Trump. He can get us Scott Baio. When Trump really tries). The speech plagiarism scandal with Melania stealing from Obama's wife's speech - about the worst slap in the face for Trump, imaginable. That was Manafort's fault. He didn't write the speech, but someone working for Manafort should have run the speech through Google... And after the Convention, I think Trump had already decided, he didn't like Manafort's influence and the annoying need to 'control' Trump. They clearly feuded for the next three weeks about Teleprompter or no, and whether Trump was allowed to go to Twitter, etc. I think its also telling that where the family was united to get rid of Lewandowski - and insisted dad fire Lewandowski and keep Manafort when those two were offering conflicting advice, today Ivanka is conveniently in Europe (on holiday with, get this, Putin's girlfriend, who is also Rupert Murdoch's ex-wife. How incestuous ARE the Trumps?)

So I am guessing its all smiles at the Trump Headquarters today (sarcasm). Trump's discipline will now improve (sarcasm). His failing campaign will now improve (sarcasm). Trump's sillyness will end (sarcasm). Trump's astronomically slight chances of winning in November will improve (sarcasm). But unfortunately for us, it means Manafort will have far more time to annoy us with his systematic lies as a Trump spokesperson on all TV channels. But for Trump Campaign troubles. I think it is safe to say, the more we see unfiltered real Trump, the more he will just repel even more voters. We can expect we've just witnessed 'Peak Trump'. It will be down-hill from here.

I think Trump had an epiphany last Wednesday night. From Thursday he was morose on the campaign trail, suddenly talking of having problems, and of being behind in Pennsylvania and Florida (Trump cannot win the election if he loses either of those two states, he's behind by TONS in both of them). And he's sounded far more downcast since then. He now is talking constantly about a rigged game, as if to set the stage that he knows he will lose, and try to deflect the fault. That it was not his fault. Also Roger Ailes and two other media dudes? If Trump had not worked on TrumpTV as his next ruse after November 8, I betcha that is now his top priority.

So yeah. The situation is going from bad to worse to even worse for the Trumpster. And we're only in mid August.

Comments

[Millard Filmore]

@Winter: possibly the Breitbart wing of the Republican party don't care about winning. Building a large(ish) white power party can be rewarding all by itself.

[paul]

@Winter

>>"I was thinking for a good name for Trump-Breibart-Drudge-KKK party."

>The All New Know Nothing Party. Or the New Native American party.

Sorry, but this way to long name. For me Nuts Party sounds so much better and it is shorter.

[Winter]

@Millard
By now, the Trumpist can only win with a civil war. So maybe that is what they are aiming at?

The racist right has a history of trying to start civil wars. Think Charles Manson.

[Millard Filmore]

@paul: Monty Python had the best name 45 years ago (good god, am i that old?) "The Silly Party", with the Very Silly Party getting a good run of votes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Election_Night_Special

[Winter]

The enigma of the Trump supporters.

A massive new study debunks a widespread theory for Donald Trump's success
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/08/12/a-massive-new-study-debunks-a-widespread-theory-for-donald-trumps-success/

It is not the economic circumstances of the supporters, maybe that of their children.

Among all the negatives, there is a telling quote:
"Among those who are similar in terms of income, education and other factors, those who view Trump favorably are more likely to be found in white enclaves — racially isolated Zip codes where the amount of diversity is lower than in surrounding areas."

The one question not raised is racism. But we know Trumpism correlates with birtherism. What I read from this study is that Trump mobilizes the racist vote, pure and simple.

[Winter]

@Paul
"For me Nuts Party sounds so much better and it is shorter."

Fun aside, we know what the name will be: The (New) American Party.

That was the official name of the Know Nothing movement.

[paul]

@Millard

"The Silly party" sounds too cute!

[Winter]

To continue with Trump's appeal to the racist vote:

Sharpton trashes Trump's message for black voters
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/al-sharpton-trump-black-voters-227127

[“I think that he’s trying to appeal to white voters that he’s not racist,” Sharpton said, citing a poll in which voters questioned his temperament and whether he’s a racist. “I think that he’s trying to modify his image to whites and particularly independents because if he was really trying to go after black voters, he would have went into Milwaukee or went anywhere. He has not gone to any black audience.”]

So, as racist will never admit they are racists, Trump is showing them they are not racists. It is the Democrats that are racists (Catriona tried to tell that story here before). When older white men are telling non-whites who are the racists and women who are discriminating them, you know what is afoot.

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

@drealer:

Oh, another fact-proof conspiracy theory (as in, no matter what facts you throw at the theory it always gets shrugged off as lies from the illuminati).

http://www.dailywire.com/news/8450/wikileaks-linked-dnc-analyst-seth-rich-what-aaron-bandler

Is that the best you got?

[Wayne Borean]

And Catriona can't understand why we don't see the truth when she tells it to us.

[Wayne Borean]

@Paul and @Millard

Of course some wag would be calling it the Silly Putty the same day...

[Wayne Borean]

Skip the first section, the second is about this election cycle.

http://www.sltrib.com/home/4239364-155/rolly-in-wake-of-orlando-shooting?fullpage=1

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi everybody

So Trump is now doing scripted speeches off Teleprompter. Third day in a row. The new media team has Trump on a leash. Trump also hasn't done explosive Twitter damage to his campaign. Looks like Trump 5.0 Pivot is holding.

Very remarkable, truly, very remarkable moment in North Carolina, Trump expressed regret that some of his words have caused pain. Ok. Thats a start. Its not yet at 'apology' which I don't expect until the Trump 7.0 pivot and when these campaign bosses are fired and the next batch hired, around October. But yeah. At least Trump has read a pre-written part of a speech he would never in his normal voice say. He expressed regret. Now he should be asked in every interview what those regrets were - and why he kept saying them for so many days/weeks/months. Plus to catch him on every one he isn't willing to commit to haha. If Mexicans are NOT rapists and murderers, then why the wall? If Muslims are not all evil, why a global ban on Muslims, etc..

But yeah. Trump seems to have stopped making things WORSE for himself. Now if the new management team is successful, Trump should honestly pivot - towards the CENTER and try to win some, not only make things worse for himself. It will be far too little and far too late, but this is the first step into a semi-sane campaign.

All that is good, because he is destined to lose by huge colossal landslide. If Trump is now willing to make this pivot (and actually run those ads in the states his campaign is talking about) that means is is 'trying' to win, haha, rather than trying to exit the race.

I do hope hope hope he takes the bait and gambles on debating Hillary - of course I expect him not to - but it would be truly a great TV spectacle. Trump, no matter how hard he would try to brush-up on governing, will be utterly outclassed in the debate and Hillary will get the rebuttals to point out his mistakes, and also if Hillary and her team are smart, they will lay traps in Hillary's first responses, that should invite Trump to walk into devastatingly ludicrous positions in HIS responses. Lastly on Roger Ailes. I forgot that he was involved with Daddy Bush's campaign and helped that debate prep. Daddy Bush tried to avoid debating Bill Clinton outright haha. So Trump who isn't eager to debate, has now also a debate coach who has tried this skipping-a-debate gambit before.

BUT being behind by 7 points and polls tilting ever worse against Trump, he HAS to do something and the debates are his strongest gambit left.

Plus expect those TV ads to be despicably nasty attacking Hillary. They should be the most disgusting TV ads ever seen.

Talking about disgusting. Putin is assembling tens of thousands of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border. I warned we'd see a Putin move in the summer or autumn months. This is unfortunately that time and its looking ominous.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[grouch]

Anarchist group installs nude Donald Trump statues in US cities

The anarchist group INDECLINE erected the statue, titled The Emperor Has No Balls, overnight Thursday.

The NYPD watched over the dismantling. One officer told the Guardian it was unattended property and had to be taken down.

“NYC Parks stands firmly against any unpermitted erection in city parks, no matter how small,” a parks department spokesperson told Gothamist.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/aug/18/nude-donald-trump-statues-new-york-indecline

[sgtrock]

@Tomi;

Minor correction. RCP currently has Clinton with an average lead of 5.8, not 7 percentage points. That holding true for the 2 way, 3 way, and 4 way races.

[paul]

@Wayne Borean

>Of course some wag would be calling it the Silly Putty the same day...

Even better is Nutsy Party.

[Winter]

A nice twist in Clinton's emailgate:

Hillary Clinton Told FBI Colin Powell Advised Her to Use Private Email
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/19/us/politics/hillary-clinton-told-fbi-colin-powell-advised-her-to-use-private-email.html

Colin Powel was proud about the way his private email system improved communications within the department.

[grouch]

Supervisor tries to save naked Trump statue in SF’s Castro

An overweight naked man in San Francisco’s Castro district? How is that unusual?

“Well,” said Linda Calderone, standing at the corner of Market and Castro and regarding the sight, “it isn’t Pride Week, and there’s no sock.”

[...]

The reaction in other cities was immediate. The New York figure was yanked down by city workers in a little over two hours. In Cleveland, it lasted only 20 minutes, to the immense disappointment of sculptor Joshua “Ginger” Monroe.

[...]

On Thursday night, Supervisor Scott Wiener, who represents the Castro on the Board of Supervisors, tweeted that the statue was to be removed overnight, but that he was “working to save him so SF can be reminded of his ridiculousness thru election.”

[...]
http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/nevius/article/San-Francisco-delighted-by-naked-Trump-statue-9171625.php

[Crunk Kykd]

Manafort quits. Says his Russian ties were a distraction. Trump is now full-on Breitbart (the new Fox News).

[Millard Filmore]

@Crunk Kykd: "Manafort quits. Says his Russian ties were a distraction."

With all the revelations about his activities in Ukraine, perhaps he will decide that now is a great time to retire in Russia.