First Ever Smartphone Market Recession - Two Quarters of Market Decline Means Flat or Declining Annual Smartphone Sales for 2016 - Oh, and Q2 Market Data

First off, the big news. We’ve hit the first Smartphone Market Recession. I just finished doing the Q2 market analysis (its the summer vacation and a slow time in tech, and the numbers are of course here, below) but yeah. We now do see the numbers clearly. Like in how they measure the GDP growth/decline as a measure of an economy being in a recession, we can now declare that officially, the smartphone market has hit its first-ever recession. For two quarters in a row, counting a 12 month moving average sales, the smartphone market has contracted. It hasn’t contracted by much (only 2%) but it is nonetheless the first time ever that this industry of less than 20 years of age has contracted. Even in previous global economic recessions, the smartphone market grew. Now it didn’t. So previously I was predicting a modest growth for the market from year 2015 to 2016, now I say there will be no growth, we’ll be lucky to have flat sales (about 1.44 Billion smartphones sold) and its likely we’ll be down a bit, like 1.41 Billion)

Now, most want this specific blog article for the Quarterly market share numbers, so lets get to them now. The Second Quarter Smartphone Market Unit Sales Top 10 are as follows:


BIGGEST SMARTPHONE MANUFACTURERS BY UNIT SALES IN Q2 2016

Rank . . . Manufacturer . Units . . . Market Share . Was Q1 2016 
1 (1) . . . Samsung . . . .  77.3 M . . 22.6% . . . . . . . ( 24.0% ) 
2 (2) . . . Apple  . . . . . . . 40.4 M . . 11.8% . . . . . . . ( 15.3% ) 
3 (3) . . . Huawei  . . . . . . 32.6 M . . . 9.5% . . . . . . . (   8.3% ) 
4 (4) . . . Oppo . . . . . . . . 19.5 M . . . 5.7% . . . . . . . (   5.1% )
5 (6) . . . Vivo . . . . . . . . . 16.4 M . . . 4.8% . . . . . . . (   3.7% ) 
6 (5) . . . LG  . . . . . . . .  . 13.9 M . . . 4.1% . . . . . . . (   4.0% ) 
7 (7) . . . Xiaomi . . . . . . .12.6 M . . . 3.7% . . . . . . .  (   3.6% )
8 (8) . . . Lenovo .  . . . . . 11.1 M . . . 3.2% . . . . . . . (   3.4% )
9 (10) . . ZTE  . . . . . . . . 10.6 M . . . 3.7% . . . . . . . (   3.0% )
10 (9) . . TCL/Alcatel . . .   7.6 M . . . 2.2% . . . . . . . (  3.2% ) 
Others . . . . . . . . . . . . .   99.9 M
TOTAL . . . . . . . . . . ..   341.9 M

Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Analysis 23 Aug 2016, based on manufacturer and industry data
This table may be freely shared 


So nothing major in terms of movement in the chart. Its Apple's worst quarter by market share of any year, so don't think this reflects that Apple is about to be overtaken by Huawei shortly. That is not happening this year but if Huawei keeps playing strong, and reaches about 10% market share for the full year 2016, then next year they could start to nip on Apple's iPhone heels. Meanwhile, as I've said for years, Samsung is untouchable at the top and Xiaomi haha, its not a Top 3 player, its there in the mid-field tumbling with half a dozen other Chinese plus LG. Who is on the bubble next to break into the Top 10? Chinese brand Gionee is the strongest just out our chart. Could get in soon. TCL/Alcatel is obviously the weakest of the current set and looking like it will tumble out shortly. But as I keep reminding our readers, the smartphone market is driven by hit phones. Any of the Top 10 makers could have a breakout moment powered by a hit phone. I am hoping/expecting someone to come up with a cool 'must have' phone for the Christmas season, especially as rumors have Apple delaying the iPhone 7 launch cycle to 2017.

Bear in mind that we are now in a recession market. So the consumers are postponing purchases, holding onto their smartphones longer and they also buy cheaper, rather than more expensive smartphones. So we see all major premium brand smartphone makers with lower sales compared to the previous quarter like Apple, Samsung, LG (and outside the Top 10 Sony, Blackberry etc). But the growing brands are discount/value brands like Vivo, Oppo and Huawei. As India is a good growth market while China is stagnant, we could see soon also India brands, especially Micromax possibly making an entry into the Top 10. 

In the OS wars, its pretty much all Android with iOS doing its bit at 12%. Windows is selling at a level below half a percent so we now round out Windows OS to zero. So 86% for Android, 12% for iOS, 2% covers all others from Tizen to Windows to Blackberry to Sailfish to random whatnots.

For the installed base, we get this update:


INSTALLED BASE OF SMARTPHONES BY OPERATING SYSTEM AS OF 31 JULY 2016

Rank . OS Platform . . . . Units . . . . Market share  Was Q1 2016
1 . . . . Android . . . . . . . . 2,156 M . . . 79 % . . . . . . ( 79 %)  
2 . . . . iOS  . . . . . . . . . . . . 518 M . . . 19 % . . . . . . ( 19 %) 
5 . . . . Windows Phone . . . 24 M  . . . . 1 % . . . . . . (   1 %) 
Others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 M  . . . . 1 %
TOTAL Installed Base . 2,720 M smartphones (ie 2.7 Billion) in use at end of Q2, 2016

Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Analysis 23 August 2016, based on manufacturer and industry data
This table may be freely shared 


So the world has 2.7 Billion smartphones in use. 79% of them are Android based smartphones, 19% are iPhones. Because of older Nokia-Lumia sales, there still is a 1% level of older Windows smartphones in some pockets.

THOUGHTS ON SMARTPHONE RECESSION

Some thoughts on ‘basic economics’ in a recession economic environment. Expect price wars. The natural reaction when a given competitor sees their sales fall (unit sales) is to think they need to cut prices to bring sales up. In a recession that fuels the pain for everybody, as then others respond also cutting prices, and both unit sales continue to fall (because the market is in recession) but now the profits for all players also suffer as they are in a price war. BTW this is usually good for those consumers who can afford to buy..

Expect a lot of continuing bad news from major players in the market. Recessions often are times when some competitors throw in the towel and quit the race. Its a time we may see selling and some opportunistic rivals may go buying, when a rival is struggling. We could see a wave of consolidation.

But also, the fundamentals of the industry suggest there is still plenty of room to grow, because the TOTAL phone market has not yet shifted to smartphones. Only about 75% of the total handset market has migrated to smartphones so we should see a return, relatively rapidly, to again growing smartphone market - mainly as it continues to cannibalize the last remaining parts of the ‘featurephone’ or ‘dumbphone’ market. As the overall decline of the market (only 2%) is modest, and there is significant ‘natural growth’ left for the market, I expect this ‘smartphone market recession’ to be short-lived but it may continue till the end of the year.

For consumers, a new iPhone ‘cycle’ usually spurs a strong growth. This year we hear for the first time that Apple will shift from a 2 year cycle to a 3 year cycle. We don’t know, but it seems like the new iPhone 7 will not come this September, but rather in September of 2017. That boost to the market will likely be missing this Christmas, and thus the Christmas sales can well be also flat or even below what they were last year. Samsung’s big Galaxy update cycle has already been seen and factored into the year and the next one will not come until Spring of 2017. What were once major international boosts also to the market, Nokia, Sony, Blackberry etc launching major smartphone models - are now ignored because those companies have fallen out of the size of being relevant anymore.

One last thought. There could be a boost out of a ‘revolutionary’ smartphone form factor. For that to work, it would need to be done by one of the major players. In the past we’ve seen attempts like super-cameras (Nokia 808 Pureview) or in-built pico projectors (Samsung) or 3D displays (LG) but now the major companies eager to do innovative revolutionary experiments have gone or quit trying those methods. Samsung has said repeatedly their experimentation phase of radical smartphone form factors is past, and they will focus on the tried and true slab touch-screen form factors. Apple is not known for messing with the iPhone slab touch-screen form factor at all. And there is nobody much left who could dare to try something else, as most of the other players of the industry run on razor-thin margins or run on a loss.

If every phone is an i-phone-a-clone and the only question is price, then we will see mainly a price war that will drive most production to the least-expensive markets (no more made in China but increasingly made in Vietnam) and to near-uniform form factors. I had hoped that the Blackberry Priv could reignite a desire of the slider-folder-flip keyboard form factor as a hybrid with touch screen (I bought the Priv, very nice Andorid phone with great keyboard) but obvously the Priv did not set the world on fire. I still have the Samsung Galaxy K Zoom as my other phone. Its the best cameraphone on the market but its an ugly bulky phone yes. Unfortunately Sammy won’t be giving us an update to that phone. So the very last attempts at a break from the standard slab form factor have come and gone, with no sustainable market niche, far less a popular mass market appeal.

One last change to my standing forecasts. I will wait until the Q4 numbers for 2016 come out (we’ll have those numbers by early February 2017) but it now looks likely that the migration forecast to the total phone market being only smartphones, is about one year too early. It may be we won’t see the phone market shift to only smartphones sold, until the end of year 2020 (not end of 2019). We’ll explore that forecast further when this year’s full numbers are in, but so far, I see no reason to expect a dramatic end-of-year recovery to very rapid pace smartphone sales. If the sales stay in the 1.4B range, then yes, we will miss the 2019 target for the market full migration having been completed. 

If you need the previous Quarter data, its here.

For those interested in all Mobile Industry numbers and stats, the latest edition of my annual volume, TomiAhonen Almanac 2016 is here.

Comments

[Abdul Muis]

@Tomi

I wonder if the dumb phone number is also down?

Thx

[Telmo Pimentel Mota]

If Others Units is bigger than Rank #1 (99.9 > 77.3), why not have a bigger list?
Top 15? Top 20?..

[John A]

Saw a new deal with Microsoft/Lenovo just now. To put some pre-installed Windows apps in their Android phones.

So I suppose that is Nadellas new strategy in mobiles. I doubt Microsoft will put a lot of effort in Windows 10 Mobile at this point.

[paul]

@Wayne

> They don't use their phones to buy apps or music.

As Tomi has shown here, the app industry is like a casino industry. Therefore many of the apps out there are free anyway so there is no real need in many cases to buy apps for smartphones. There are plenty of good and free apps for smartphones anyway.

Regarding buying music in many countries out there there is no real need to buy music either (for example, many known music bands in South Sudan or Kosovo are not selling their music in Apple store or any other "cloud" music store).

[ch]

@Wayne

The data plans in countries where a $50 phone is still very expensive for the average buyer are cheap. A $50 phone buyer in Africa can easily afford a local data plan because they are not $50 a month like in the USA

[Abdul Muis]

@Wayne

I've write many times here, pointing the error of your math, but it seems to you that repeating the same hogwash over and over again is more important than seeing the whole big picture.

1. about apps income. -- If you wanna talk about PAID apps.
1a. Google is NOT monopoly. There were many 'small' android app store in the world. For example, in China, most (99+%?) use local android app store. In rusia, local android store, Yandex, is also 'popular'. In USA, Amazon also have App store for Android. These are just 3 example that I list here.
1b. Samsung also have their own app store. And in many country beside USA, Samsung were promoting their app store quite heavy. i.e. If you buy samsung phone, you can download some paid apps for free, or get certain amount of IAP for certain game free.

2. USA is one of the country that have VERY EXPENSIVE data. In other part of the world, 1GB only cost around $1 or even less. And, these carrier were MAKING MONEY with that low price. Here I gave you an example of Carrier in Indonesia. NOT THE CHEAPEST in the world, but cheap and also not bad.
2a. XL-Axiata (http://www.xl.co.id/id/internet/paket/combo-xtra)
2a.a. 59ribu (59K rupiah = US$4.46) you got 2GB if you use 2G/3G phone, but you get 2GB + 10GB if you use 4G phone (12GB + 50 minute phone call for US$ 4.46/month).
2a.b. 89ribu (89K rupiah = US$6.73) you got 4GB (2G/3G) + 15GB (4G) + 75 minute phone call.
2a.c. --- and so on (look at http://www.xl.co.id/id/internet/paket/combo-xtra)
2b. Ooreedo (https://indosatooredoo.com/id/personal/producttariff/im3/freedom-combo)
2b.a. 59ribu (59K rupiah = US$4.46) you got 4GB if you use 2G/3G phone, but you get 4GB + 10GB if you use 4G phone (14GB + free unlimited spotify usage for US$ 4.46/month).
2b.b. --- and so on (look at the link above)
And BTW, the speed of these service is GOOD ENOUGH. 3G stable at around 2MBps-8MBps, with average around 3MBps, and 4G speed is well beyond 10MBps.

3. In other part of the world, the government have lots of initiative to put WiFi in public space. Such as in India, Google were coorporating with the India railroad to put free wifi in the railway station. In HK, if you go to VICTORIA, there were FREE PUBLIC WIFI. and this is very common. There were lots of Internet goes to Village program in many country to close the information gap.

4. One of the motivation of dumb phone user to change to smartphone is to SAVE PHONE BILL. i.e. using OTT service such as WhatsApp, Line, WeChat, HangOut, Skype, etc. You can't use the USA rates to determine that people in poor country can't afford it. What you're doing is like saying the apartment in New York cost US$ 500K, therefore people in Africa can't have apartment/house.

[Abdul Muis]

*I mean Victoria park in HK.

[John A]

@Wayne Brady
I think the whole Universal App or UWP app concept are in danger to. I think they make most sense in devices with screen sizes around 4,5" to around 8" inch displays.

But even the Windows 8,1 and 10 tablets with 7" and 8" inch are basicly gone from the markets, with the Windows smartphones.

If you using a Windows device from 10" and up to around 27" inch displays you probably just using the webb browser in the "old fashion way" in any case and dont care much about the Windows app store. So I wonder what developer will care to create UWP apps if no small tablets or phones with Windows?

So I think even for the desktop Microsoft will have problem in the future. Especially when Android apps will be running in ChromeOS.

So it will be interesting to see how Nadella will deal with it.

[Abdul Muis]

Samsung launched another Tizen Phone.

https://news.samsung.com/global/samsung-launches-z2-the-first-tizen-powered-4g-smartphone-pre-loaded-with-jio-services

[Abdul Muis]

@Wayne

App Annie is only say that FOR PAID APPS, Apple's app store yielding more $$$ compared to Google's Android App store. It doesn't say count the other app store for Android!!

Second,
Since you seems to 'KNOW A LOT ABOUT NUMBER', I hope you were NOT bias to one side of the number, and can do the research without me helping you.

You can search with google:
1. Apple have kind of rule. If Apps were released on Apple first months before android. Apple will kind of helping the app developer with putting it in the app store spotlight, Thus, the apps will got more download
2. Some apps developer that releasing BOTH ANDROID AND iOS VERSION at the SAME TIME, report that the android version gave them more $$$.
3. The reason: because lots of GAMER that don't choose side, own both phone platform, and if they already buy it in their iOS, they won't buy it again in Android.

Third,
Stop being a broken record, Regardless what marketing strategy apple used such as politely persuading Apps developer to release the iOS version first, is not a guarantee that it will have the same performance in the future. In fact, the tide is slowly changing, and I know, you feel the heat. Otherwise, you won't be here 24/7 defending Apple.

[Rich Black]

Tommi,

I've read that both Oppo and Vivo (as well as OnePlus) are brands owned by BBK Electronics. Are you able to confirm this? If these are simply brands, shouldn't they be consolidated in your reports into a single manufacturer?

It would be really interesting if you're able to do an article on the various Chinese manufacturers, many of whom are not well known in the west.

[Tester]

@Wayne Brady:

The only reason why iOS still makes more money is the USA. One large and rich country with a disproportionate high amount of Apple users.

Take that out and things will suddenly look a lot different. Anyway, the reason is not that Apple users are willing to spend more money but that gamers tend to buy premium phones to get the best experience. And there the only real choices are Samsung vs. Apple right now, so it's a significantly smaller market segment.

Also again, all you count is the revenue made directly from the app store. That's just a tiny slice of all the money that is in mobile.

[Ben]

Good, hopefully now we'll get some midrange phones with excellent cameras and batteries that last a full day or more. After that it would be nice to get a major UI refresh from both Apple and Google. The idea of everything revolving around a home button seemed outdated 5 years ago...

[E.Casais]

"is there really a reason to treat smartphones as a separate category."

None. In fact, I have always been saying there has never been a difference between "smartphone" and "feature phone" -- the revealing clue being the absence of a tight definition of a "smartphone".

There is, and has always been only a segmentation into entry-level, mid-range and high-end devices. This corresponds to the price and the available features, and maps to the customer segmentation as well (e.g. relative to purchasing power).

"the CUSTOMERS of Apple do not behave like the customers of Samsung or Android in general."

This is very true, and you point out the reason: it is simply a case of purchasing power.

However, when you come to apps, you are misled: there have been studies of who buys what, and even with Apple customers, the purchase of apps is extremely skewed: a minority of customers are responsible for the vast majority of app sales. Hence, a majority of iPhone users is actually not buying into the Apple ecosystem, i.e. "they don't use their phones to buy apps or music" either.

If there is one risk in the customer base of Apple, this is it -- because if they are not in it for apps and content, then they are in it for the status symbol, whose price is carefully hidden via the obscure price plans of operators and the financing scheme of Apple. Once the price becomes obvious, and the economic crisis is felt, then trade-offs follow.

"I'd LOVE to see numbers from some relatively authoritative source on what the general mobile ecosystem is like."

Either you have not been following this blog -- in which Tomi published _exactly_ those figures in ultra-long-form articles. Or you do not consider Tomi to be authoritative...

"these billions of the poorest people come online and use free apps...that's TERRIBLE for the Android developer. Over load their servers with freeloading customers that provide no revenue either as targets for ads or via in app purchases."

Google makes revenue not by commissions on app sales, but via ads. As long as Android users see and click ads, Android is doing well. And Google controls some of the most used services where ads are displayed (Web search, videos, e-mail...)

Thus, the fate of non-free-app developers is not the prime criterion to analyse the health of Android.

Second, a very large population of users is what drives the reorganization of the economy around a technology, the scaling of production and service provisioning, and innovation -- not premium gadgets for a minority. I am for instance always baffled by the complexity and cost of the mobile phone payment schemes elaborated in supposedly "advanced" 1st world countries (whether by Apple, Google or others), compared to the robust, large-scale, cheap solutions that have been existing in "underdeveloped" Africa for many years.

Now, in a more general perspective, there does not seem to be any follow-up product to rekindle growth after mobile phones saturate. Tablets are already declining -- without ever reaching the same importance, and smartwatches have yet to make a comparable impact (measured by units, total sales, sales of associated products and services such as apps, etc).

Maybe we are entering a phase comparable to the PC since the early 1990s: for the next 15 years, there was a slow shift from desktop to laptop, with both form factors co-existing for the entire period, with nothing new to replace them. It was also the triumph of Windows, Intel, and the razor-thin margins for a constantly shifting battlefield of PC OEM.

[Cold Spring]

Android is now number one choice for professional App developers according to latest survey:
https://adtmag.com/articles/2016/08/05/android-ios-mindshare.aspx

Tide is indeed turning, every metric which used to favor IOS is now owned by Android

[Wayne Borean]

Someone said in one of the earlier articles that iOS is harder to develop for than Android. Apple disagrees.

http://www.apple.com/education/everyone-can-code/?CID=mkts-edu-ecc-coderesources

[Abdul Muis]

@Wayne

Apple PR engine is the best. They really know how to present their number. Unfortunately I dont have time to search for you About google's android play store revenue and the whole android revenue. You seems have too much spare time, perhaps you can search it yourself. Unless you only want a convenient information provided by Apple PR department such as 98℅ of smartphone profit belongs to Apple, along the math to justify it. Its really up to you. Do you want to believe the real truth or the truth that make you happy.

[Abdul Muis]

@Rich Black

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/BBK_Electronics

BBK Electronics Corporation (Chinese: 广东步步高电子工业有限公司, also known as BBK Electronics, Chinese: 步步高电器) is a Chinese company specialized on electronics such as television sets, MP3 players, digital cameras and cell phones. It markets smartphones under the Oppo, OnePlus and Vivo brands,[4][5] and Blu-ray players, headphones and headphone amplifiers under the OPPO Digital division.[6][7] BBK Electronics' headquarters and production base are in Chang'an, Dongguan.[8] The latest member of the BBK Electronics group is "imoo".[9][10]

According to Bloomberg, the corporate address is 23 Bubugao Avenue, Wusha Village, Chang'an Dist, Dongguan, 523860 China.[11] It is the highest taxpayer in Chang'an.[12]

As of 2004, BBK also made devices sold in the United States under the Memorex and Philco brands.[13]

[paul]

@Wayne

> On "free" apps. You still need a data pipe...and "free" is ONLY "free with
> ads" or in app purchases.

That is completely wrong because there are plenty of apps which are free AND do not have adds!

> There has to be a monetizing benefit to the developer or...no apps.

Nowadays it does not have to be anymore for Android and iOS ecosystems. Tomi has explained over and over again that that developing apps for Android/iOS is like ca casino industry (except games apps) which means that is most likely to win at a casino than to get a profit by developing apps for smartphones. Tomi said that not me! Most of the apps developers for iOS/Android nowadays are making loses.

> But if we imagine (and it's only in our imaginations) that these
> billions of the poorest people come online and use free apps...
> that's TERRIBLE for the Android developer.

No, this is wrong again because actually having billions of poorest people coming online and use free apps is a good thing and not a bad thing.

> But we don't need to wait for the future to find this out.
> Right now, with 5 times the users, Android only has double the downloads.
> Already we know that Apple pays TWICE the amount to developers
> with 1/5th the install base.

This statement is almost a comparison between profits made by Android and iOS and you know that talking about profits in here is not allowed! Anyway Android is number one as market share worldwide and this is what people talk about here!

> What growth there is in Android (and right now there is contraction)...is going to come from even poorer customers than they already have.

It is a good thing that poorer customers go to Android. There is nothing bad about that. Also Linux is free and it rules the world!

> Android has plenty of customers with money. It's just they ALREADY have those customers. The growth is coming from the bottom.

That is a good thing for Android. On the other hand iOS market share is going downwards.

> And if you imagine they all get data plans...

The data plans are pretty cheap in a lot of not-so-rich countries!

>then that's WORSE for Android as they'll use the services but not contribute revenue.

The users do not have to contribute to the revenue! You know that revenue includes profit. Right?
Android has won the battle and it is the number one as marketshare worldwide and therefore Android does not have to prove anything anymore. More and more people, some of them which are very rich and some of the are very poor, will join even more Android ecosystems and that is a very good thing. Whilst iOS market share will shrink more and more.

> Yes, it's a rough environment for Apple.
> But, as we see, it's a much rougher environment for everyone.

It is exactly the opposite. It is more rough environment for Apple than for everyone else. More and more people (including people from Africa) join Android instead of iOS and therefore the marketshare of Android will only increase more and more.

For example, Google has almost no revenue in China from Android because most of the Android phones made and sold in China are sold without Google apps by default. And despite this Android is doing just fine in China and I personally guess that this pattern (of pushing Google out from Android) will spread more and more throughout the world. Most likely Android will become more and more like Linux from revenue point-of-view.

[Abdul Muis]

@Wayne

So, when Tomi say that the statement that Apple make 95% or 98% of smartphone profit does Tomi make up shit? Because I don't remember he's cite his reference.