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« Average Smartphone User Touches Screen 2,617 Times Per Day in 76 Separate Sessions | Main | The Not Ready for Prime-Time Players: Trump Campaign and Pence - This campaign is not amateur hour or minor league. This is a tragedy, inside a calamity, wrapped inside a catastrophe. Not Trump or Pence, I mean the Campaign. »

July 14, 2016

Comments

Jerry Cote

Or maybe, just maybe, he consciously chooses to NOT play identity politics, to instead transcend it and appeal to what makes us all the same. He's already DONE that, and he's not going to play it your way now. Of course that would mean Pence has to have some of the same appeal, and I'll agree that I don't see it. And his past TPP stance is anathema to everything Trump is running on - I have to assume Trump beat it out of him.

Millard Filmore

@Jerry Cole: I am much more cynical than you. I suspect that Trump finalized negotiations with the sugar daddy behind Pence.

Dang. I wish I could think better of Trump and Republicans. This is depressing.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Jerry and Millard

Just to clue you in Jerry, Millard was referring to our earlier speculation (we've been having a discussion here on the blog for more than a year about this election cycle already over dozens and dozens of blog articles). So I think it was originally via Rachel Maddow's comments spotted via Twitter, that we talked here about the MONEY behind the finalists (Newt and Pence). Newt has Sheldon Adelson as his personal sugar-daddy Billionaire. Mike Pence has the Koch Brothers (richest Billionaires in all of US politics). And that Trump picked Pence, its likely Trump and the Koch Brothers have achieved an agreement where Koch money will come to the Trump campaign which was not offered up to now...

Just so you know what Millard was referring to.. (thanks Millard, great point).

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Millard and Jerry

While I have you here, a bit on the background yes. The money must be a factor (Trump is so far behind in his fund-raising and the traditional Republican money-spigots have been nearly shut). Lets see if in next days suddenly Koch Brothers discover their love of Trump.

Another interesting tidbit, Politico reported while the decision was not yet made, that the battle between Newt and Pence was an internal fight where the family wanted Newt but the campaign professionals (ie Manafort and gang) wanted Pence. So Manafort won (again).

Tomi Ahonen :-)

cornelius

The latest polls show a sharp decline for Clinton. A Rasmussen poll gives the lead to Trump at +7%. Then an Economist/YouGov poll has a tiny +2% lead for Clinton. Even CBS News/NY Times which is not a conservative leaning poll finds a tie between Clinton and Trump. Yesterday a Marist poll showed a +3% lead for Clinton.
All polls consistently show Clinton's decline. Well, except Reuters which still has Clinton up by 12.3% as of July 12th.
Even 538 has Clinton's chances of winning the election at 63.3% down from 73.1% just two days ago.
Is this caused by the e-mail investigation? It sure is not Trump's VP nomination which just happened today (BTW, I was first to predict Mike Pence, and even before that I predicted an ultra-conservative VP, in Mike Huckabee, so the Mike part I got it right. Excuse me while I pat myself on the back). Anyone has an explanation for this slide? Will it become permanent? I hope Clinton will rebound.

EduardoM

Great post, Tomi, but I disagree that Trump had a lot of better choices for VP. Most of the people you mentioned are reasonably smart politicians who know that hitching their fortunes to Trump would be a disaster for their careers. If Trump wanted a good VP candidate, he should have run a very different campaign the last few months.

As for Condi Rice, she is basically an academician and administrator, not a politician. And besides she is a moderate conservative who I am sure thinks Trump is a complete idiot. And besides, even if she was the VP candidate, I imagine 99% of the Black voters would still vote for Hillary, not the Donald.

A bit off topic: I wonder if there is a gambling place, like in Las Vegas, that is taking bets on whether or not Trump will drop out of the race before election day.

Also, I am thinking that if I were a rich person thinking of donating to Trump, I would require some sort of signed contract that he would not drop out, including some sort of guarantee like collateral in an independently-administered account

EduardoM

Tech leaders against Trump:

https://medium.com/@KatieS/an-open-letter-from-technology-sector-leaders-on-donald-trumps-candidacy-for-president-5bf734c159e4#.tvm21addr

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi cornelius

Good question and concern. The Rasmussen poll is totally nuts and far far off the reservation. Its what they do occasionally to rally the Republican voters. The poll has some ridiculous assumptions about turnout and minority/white proportions etc. You can safely ignore it. The CBS/NYT poll is legit and yes, shows an even race. Note that if the race is in reality about +2% for Hillary, then a poll showing 0% is within the margin of error and be consistent with a 2% race. But there are several recent polls that have shown the race getting tighter. It may well be an indicator of the race really tightening up. The RCP average still shows a 3% race (in 2-person race) but if there is a shift, then the RCP average will lag the actual change.

The first thought I have is our best 'barometer' ie Reuters Daily Tracking Poll. It shows NO movement at all. Totally same 12% race or 28 days in a row. Trump has been polling within 1.5% plus/minus around 33% and Hillary being within 1.3% plus/minus near 45%. The Reuters Tracking Poll has very accurately caught the changes in the race (going back to the primary races). I do not believe the race has suddenly gone very tight and nearly even. But the Reuters daily tracker has shown a polling result that is on the high upside favoring Hillary, consistently, so its likely that the reality is not near 12%, it is probably somewhere near say 5% currently.

BUT separately, remember the sudden fear the Democrats had, that Trump might be scared out of the race? I am pretty sure that the Democrats in general and Hillary's team in particular, have rapidly diminished their efforts. They have taken some of the pressure off, and are then stockpiling that money to pour it on right after Trump's Convention is over. That could explain some tightening yes. BUT it would HAVE to then show also in the Reuters Daily Tracker where it isn't showing.

There are often single outlier polls that go kind of wild. The averages tell us where the reality is, or close to it. The immediate next two weeks will be the most volatile time of the election cycle this year, when within a 2 week period there are 5 events that alter the state of the race. So we won't really know the reality until after the Democratic Convention is over in 2 weeks (and polls that come out that were measured completely after that Convention has ended).

We just saw Pence. He will not cause a huge bump to Trump's support in a way that say Marco Rubio or Nikki Haley or Susana Martinez would have. Then we have seen the speakers coming to Trump's family gathering. It will be an ego-trip for Trump but a spectacularly POOR event to boost a candidate's popularity. His bump will be modest at best. Meanwhile Hillary runs nothing if not a professional well-planned campaign. Her VP will provide a bounce, and her Campaign will get a bounce, and both should be bigger than Republican bounces (if any). Plus the Bernie effect. The race will be BETTER for Hillary when first polls of August come out, than it is now. I expect approximately a 10 point race then. Don't worry. But once you get close to the race - haha, as we have kind of become here via the blog - you get also that anxiety the moment it isn't going the way you'd like to see it. I hear you, I know EXACTLY how you feel... As of now, all is good. There is nothing that has damaged Hillary's chances and Pence? He is not a game-changer. The speakers we've seen for Trump? There is no Oprah or Brad Pitt or someone who could be a Ronald Reagan, etc. Its strictly B and C list celebrities and politicians, very VERY mediocre. So you can take it easy, there is no cause to panic. If the situation changes, I'll be here to tell you - now its time to panic (like for example back in 2012, when suddenly Obama, the brilliant debater, came into his first debate against Romney without preparation and was flat and suddenly Romney climbed in the polls).

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Eduardo

You're correct. Many of the people mentioned were quite vocal in saying no to Trump. And its the obvious smart thing to do. The three finalists that Trump considered were all politicians whose careers had ended or were about to end. Newt will not win any election anywhere anymore. Christie is gone from New Jersey. Pence was headed to a big election loss in Indiana. These were 'desperate' politicians who needed the chance to prolong a career and to try to find a new way if the VP thing didn't work, ie to use this chance to raise their profile to get a Fox TV gig or something. Essentially all smart people said no to Trump. But not all.

Marco Rubio was quite obvious that he wanted the VP slot. Susana Martinez even after being viciously attacked by Trump, left the door open to meet with him and open a dialogue. And many who said no to Trump did it quite late (like Condi Rice) which suggests to me, they were approached and were not satisfied in the way they were treated, and then went public to say no. Trump was quite clear that he wants people to grovel and beg for the job. He was not going to go beg for someone to join his ticket. So Trump was pushing better candidates away simply because of Trump's ego. VERY bad candidate, and poorly managed campaign to allow that. Trump is a natural ACTOR. If he was simply 'directed' (by Manafort) on what his 'role' was for that particular stage, he could have done a good job of wooing a reluctant candidate to join the ticket. But Trump felt because he had won, he had the rights of a dictator.

LOL on Condi Rice thinking Trump is a total idiot. I am certain that is how she feels (like almost all who were with the Bush administrations, excepting for Cheney and Rumsfeld who both had become exiled from the Bush inner circles). And so do most who are in politics, while not all are saying it or showing it. BUT the VP slot could have been 'sold' as a good visible spot to raise a profile in 2016 for a later run. This is obviously Trump's last run, he's the oldest candidate ever to run. But as I said, Trump wants to be a dictator. He can't stand to go begging at his age, and especially at this point in politics. He feels everybody should BEG to be on his ticket or his cabinet or speaking at his Convention.

Now on the betting, I don't know but I would guess Las Vegas will have bookmakers taking that bet haha. On the rich donors, gosh they are really worried that Trump will screw them. If it was a normal politician who had some campaign finance irregularities (fraud, stealing some of the money) it wouldn't be so bad, but Trump is a fellow Billionaire - and a notorious serial bankrupter. They FEAR that he will screw them. So they aren't paying...

On the letter, excellent thanks. And the link. Yeah, 125 leaders in Silicon Valley tech companies are saying Trump would be a disaster as President.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

The Nice terrorist news has just broken in the past hour

I am heartbroken. France is facing so much of the violence. I'm in the Cote d'Sur region almost every year, often been to Nice and flying in and out of the airport if visiting neighboring cities like Cannes and Monaco, plus often driven a car there. I love that part of France and Europe.

Now, I had to come and post a political angle to the story. No, not that Trump is likely to exploit it and probably benefit politically. An interesting point in the immediate statement from Trump. He said he is postponing his 11 AM announcement of his VP.

I could imagine that Trump has been monitoring the Twitter feed of his 'triumphant' announcement of Mike Pence - and be shell-shocked at how hostile its been. Almost universal disapproval. Very few supportive Tweets. Even some of Trump's most loyal supporters like haha, Ann Coulter said its a mistake. ALSO as we know, Trump is lazy about doing any work, he probably was very minimal in his vetting of his candidates. He probably didn't know all the faults that came out fast on Twitter about Pence.

Imagine if Trump is having second thoughts about Pence and now wants to take the time to re-assess - and possibly drop Pence and have a 'mulligan' haha, a do-over. Make a new choice. Maybe Newt, maybe Christie, maybe someone else, that General he talked about, or Senator Sessions or someone else. The press event is scheduled for 'tomorrow' morning (its Friday my time) and 14 hours from now. There is plenty of time to have that event and no real reason to postpone it. Maybe Trump is considering dumping Pence haha. Lets see how this plays.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Wayne Borean


Note that this is from before Pence was mentioned as the probable VP choice.

Nearly Four-Fifths of White Evangelicals Say They’ll Vote for Donald Trump

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/14/us/donald-trump-white-evangelical-voters-poll.html?_r=1

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi idiot and Wayne

idiot - it can very well be. Its possible the whole US press were duped (and obviously this irrelevant blog far in Hong Kong as well). Its possible Trump leaked Pence's name just as a ruse - or possibly as a test balloon. Its also possible that PENCE leaked the name to try to force Trump's hand. Its possible Trump says that no, he never said Pence, and he then announces someone else. You're correct. BUT all major newsmedia report its Pence. CNN has said that its been confirmed by Trump. I go by that, not your opinion. But you are correct, regardless, it may be a ruse.

SEPARATELY, it is at least as much possible that Trump is freaking out by the huge negative backlash and is having second thoughts. He has bought extra time and he can consider, maybe he replaces Pence with Newt or Christie or General whatshiname.

Wayne - yeah, good source thanks. I saw that but didn't have a source handy. Most of the evangelical vote had already migrated to Trump and many conservatives were quite bewildered by that (as Trump is about the least religious person they've seen in ages).

BTW the clown circus element of Trumpalooza Cleveland Convention is continuing. Tim Tebow says he was never asked - and more embarrassing - that he also WON'T speak at the Convention. OUCH. How ridiculously incompetent are the Trumpistas. This is how you manage to bankrupt a casino haha.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

cornelius

Maybe Trump is postponing the VP announcement because, in the light of the new attack in France, he thinks that a general as VP would boost his ticket. Also it is possible that Trump learned a thing or two about not overlapping favorable news from France with his VP announcement. Maybe he learned to space out the positive news in order to maximise their effect.

Winter

No comments are actually posted.

Winter

@Tomi
"France is facing so much of the violence."

I try to post a link to a site explaining that "Terrorism is not about Terror", but they never appear.

Winter

@Tomi
"France is facing so much of the violence."

IS desperately needs new recruits (cannon fodder). This is a recruitment campaign.

"Terrorism is not about Terror"
(search for the site)
If you ever want to read some real insights in to terrorism, this is it. If you have only followed the News cycle, this will really blow your mind off.

"There is comparatively strong theoretical and empirical evidence that people become terrorists not to achieve their organization’s declared political agenda, but to develop strong affective ties with other terrorist members. In other words, the preponderance of evidence is that people participate in terrorist organizations for the social solidarity, not for their political return."

There is a very nice anecdote about how Al Fatah was able to get rid of the suicidal Black September cell when they had outlived their usefulness. They married them off.

cornelius

A bunch of polls from Marist were released today. All have Clinton safely up for all the swing states tested (Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida).
A possible (and partial) explanation for Clinton's recent slide in the polls could be Obama's approval rate in the polls. His approval is approaching even territory lately.
What's interesting is that even when Clinton's numbers in the polls went South, Trump's numbers have not improved. Trump has built such a strong, beautiful wall at 40% that every time he reaches the wall, he bounces back to thirties territory.
Also in the news, all attempts to dump the Trumpster have failed. It is not certain that Trump will indeed be the nominee. It's going to be a lot of fun to watch Trumpence in action.

cornelius

Sorry, I meant: It is NOW certain that Trump will indeed be the nominee.

EduardoM

Peter Thiel to speak at the Republican convention

https://www.engadget.com/2016/07/14/peter-thiel-republican-national-convention/

More on Thiel

http://nymag.com/selectall/2016/06/peter-thiel.html

EduardM

Military coup going on in Turkey. Not clear which side is winning.

http://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-36811357

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/15/turkey-low-flying-jets-and-gunfire-heard-in-ankara1/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y60wDzZt8yg

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