Trump VP Choice Mike Pence - So When Your Campaign Wasn't In Trouble Enough With Women, Perhaps?

So its Mike Pence the sitting Governor of Indiana. The media are just reporting a leaked story that its Pence. Donald Trump has finally made his VP selection. Lets start with the vast lost opportunities. Trump is behind in the gender gap. He is facing the largest gender gap ever measured on polling between the two choices for President. Did he pick a woman? No, Pence is obviously a man. What about minority support. Trump has the worst measured support among Hispanics of any candidate on either side. Trump polling percentage with Hispanics is down in the teens. He could have picked a Hispanic. No. Pence is obviously not Hispanic. Trump has an even worse demographic shortfall with black voters. Two local polls in Pennsylvania and Ohio just found Trump with literally zero percent support among black voters. This is unprecedented in how bad it is. Trump could have picked a black Veep. Pence is white. Trump also faces an age gap. He could have picked a young Veep to try to appeal to the youth voters. Pence is 57 years old. The Trump-Pence ticket probably has the highest combined age of any ticket in US election history. As I just put on Twitter, its the Grumpy Old Men Ticket.

NO BENEFIT

So understand, he had better choices. He could have picked a woman AND minority AND youth candidate, like say South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley or Nevada Governor Susana Martinez. He could have taken two of the three target demographics, with say Former Secretary of State Condi Rice (black and woman but not young) or Marco Rubio (Hispanic and young but a man) or Ted Cruz (another Hispanic and young but a man). Instead Trump selected a candidate who does nothing to help with ANY demographic shortfall - each of which for Trump is at historically bad levels.

Did Trump pick up a key battleground state? No. Indiana is not a battleground. If Indiana ends up in play, it means Trump has already lost the election and Hillary Clinton is fighting whether she wins by 10 points or 15 points. That is the level when Indiana starts to be in play. Now, what of alternatives? John Kasich, an older white man similar to Pence, is the popular Governor of Ohio and would have all-but-guaranteed a Republican victory in the critical battleground state. Governor Rick Scott of Florida, a younger white man than Pence would have probably won Florida, another critical battleground state. Marco Rubio would have put Florida at least in play and possibly helped win it. Governor Scott Walker yet another white middle-aged man of Wisconsin would at least have brought Wisconsin into the game and could have won his home state, another battleground state.

If you asked Democrats who would they most fear as a pairing, about two months ago, when the table was relatively open (before several said they will not want to be on the ticket with Trump) they’d probably list among the most dangerous pairings for Trump to be Trump-Martinez, Trump-Rice, Trump-Haley, Trump-Kasich and Trump-Rubio. Each of these would have gone a long way to ADDING voters to Trump, taking from the middle, making it far harder for Hillary and her ticket to win. A Mike Pence Vice President is close to the best possible wish the Democrats have had (arguably Newt Gingrich was the ultimate hope of simply two very white and rich and bigoted, arrogant Dirty Rotten Scroundels).

RELIGULOUS VOTERS

There is one voter demographic that finds Mike Pence appealing, it is the religious right. Pence pushed through and signed the ‘religious freedom’ law which made it legal to discriminate against gays in Indiana. That was then faced with fierce national push-back by all sorts of companies and organizations and Pence was forced to revoke the law. That push-back also killed Pences’s chances to run for President. A loser. Exactly the type of person Trump would look for in a Veep.

But the religious voters do love Pence for that act. He at least tried. So Trump would gain support from this slice of Republican voters. Note, they are VERY strongly base Republican voters, most of whom are already onboard Trump’s train and the rest that all pundits had already counted, would be coming home to Trump anyway. Especially as the gays and abortion-lovers are all in Camp Hillary. Trump should never have had to try to SECURE the support of the religious right. Just giving his ultra-religious pals like Jerry Falwell Jr, Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum and Michelle Bachmann prominent speaking slots on the convention would have brought most of his religious voters home. Yes, Pence does deliver this one voter segment but most of it was Republican to begin with, many were already onboard with Trump, and the last who were not (who now will pick Trump) they were among the 20% undecideds - that were already FACTORED in to eventually migrate to Trump just like most undecided Bernie Sanders supporters will come home to support Hillary. Trump could have gained one, two or even possibly three demographics from the MIDDLE to help him win. Instead, he wasted his VP pick on Pence.

Does Pence win Trump with the National Security crowd who are in the middle, moderates (like say Condi Rice would have). No of course not. What about the business wing of the party, also in the middle. Moderates? (..if alleged Billionaire and supposedly solvent and self-proclaimedly successful ‘businessman’ Donald Trump in gold letters, has not won over the business wing, nobody will). Of course not. How about the modest-size Libertarian wing who is lukewarm to Trump and who have their rival candidate in Johnson? No of course not, Pence is the epitome of anti-Libertarian bathroom police nonsense the Libertarians hate.

MIDWESTERN GOVERNOR

But he’s a Midwestern sitting Governor. Surely that will help in the battles for Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota. Really? Those are MODERATE states that tend to lean blue, not red. Pence is a highly divisive Governor who only won by under 3% and didn’t get to 50% of the vote, in a 3-way race in his only Governor election (he would be up for re-election now but cannot run on both tickets, so the Republicans of Indiana have to get a new candidate to run). That was before his severely conservative agenda that has alienated many of his voters, damaged his state, and has his popularity in the toilet right now. In May his popularity was measured at 40%. This guy to be ‘popular’ in neighboring states that are less red? Me thinks not.

Those racists and extremists, under-educated white older male voters who loved Trump in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin etc, they have already discovered their man. The rest hate Trump. Putting disliked Pence next to Trump will not help Trump win those states. A MODERATE Governor like Kasich or Christie would have helped. Not an extremist like Pence. Trump already has that end of the electorate cornered.

What Pence will do, is he will move some national polling into Trump’s favor (to a moderate degree, taking mostly from undecideds, rarely from Hillary) but this will be counterbalanced and possibly hidden in the noise that is tumbling the polling now (Conventions, Hillary’s VP pick, and Bernie’s endorsement). But the point is - those voters will be in RED STATES and among religious voters. Trump’s performance will improve in Oklahoma, Alabama, North Dakota etc. Those are states Trump will win anyway. He was in no danger there. If we see some improvement nationally in Trump's polling after Pence is on the ticket, that national polling is reflected in RED states. What Pence spectacularly fails to do, is to help Trump win in the middle, in the purple states, and among Independent and moderate voters. The moderates do not like him and the more they learn of him and hear him speak, the more they will hate this ticket. Pence is a typical conservative who is against most populist positions that American voters want in 2016 like minimum wage, gun control, equal pay, environmental controls etc. Then Pence helps energize women (if that was needed) against this ticket because of the severe anti-abortion stands he’s taken. Meanwhile he will activate the LGBT community to lead a minority voter revolt against Pence because of the ‘religious freedom’ ie anti-gays legislation he pushed for and signed in a lavish press event.

A NICE LITTLE NAZI

So then what of Mr Mike Pence? He is a Tea Party member. He has never seen a war he didn’t love. He voted for the Iraq war. He paraded in Iraq claiming the area was peaceful when John McCain had arranged a huge defensive force to keep that area quiet for the press event (oh, its THAT guy, yeah..). But his perhaps most cute idea was an official Indiana Government propaganda media channel, like Russia Today is for Putin. A formal Indiana government propaganda vehicle, paid of course, by taxpayer dollars, to celebrate how great a Governor Pence was. That was ridiculed even by most conservatives and eventually the idea was killed. When the USA took in Syrian refugees Pence tried to block them from coming to Indiana (but was unsuccessful). As to intellect and ability, at best considered a mediocre mind if we want to be kind. He's not a moron like fellow Indianan Dan Quayle but this is no rocket scientist. What he does know, however, is to speak Republican. He knows how to sound like one of the good old boys of the rich white man's party. That is our Mike Pence. A nice little Nazi alongside David Duke's personal fave candidate Donald Trump. Yeah he'll go over real well with moderate voters... NOT! Mike Pence, duschebag, with values and beliefs wonderfully well aligned with Trump. Its like its Trump and his new MiniMe.

There is a little bit of nuance here, if Trump felt he hadn't quite hit every note in his bigoted campaign. So take women. Trump has been remarkably insulting to women yes, but he hasn't advocated hostile anti-women positions (at least, not consistently). So women may have felt that Trump sounded nasty but was still just a big pussycat. Not anymore with Pence. He has been consistently fighting against women his whole career. But Pence never really was rude towards women, he just pursued an agenda that wanted women back into the kitchen and to put abortions into the back alleys. Meanwhile the gays. Trump had been rather good at his hostility to Mexicans and Muslims and Jews (and women) but Trump seemed to have a soft spot to gays. That was one minority group that Trump had not hit particularly strongly yet. Mike Pence fixes that deficit. He's probably the one Governor most hated by the LGBT community. Good job Trump, you have managed to still prove your Campaign is ever more bigoted than what we've seen in the past 13 months.

And on a personal note - I didn't know this until I researched Pence a bit deeper now as the VP gossip got stronger. Mike Pence is one of those exceptionally despicable politician-whores who sells his beliefs for organizational killers. He has taken massive amounts of cigarette industry funding and then dares to proclaim that cigarettes don't kill. Scumbag. Go f*ck yourself and your pretend-Christian values. You are a disgrace. Mass-murderer. I will laugh really hard when you lose with Trump, Mike Pence. You are precisely why so many people hate politics.

Once again Trump has managed to not help his campaign. Did this dramatically hurt it, perhaps not much. Might be a little bit. That also gets the modest bump in national polling from the religious voters so perhaps its a wash. But consider how much stronger the ticket would have been if someone like Marco Rubio was on the trail campaigning for Trump as his VP or say Nikki Haley or Condi Rice or Susana Martinez. This was a huge wasted opportunity and it will not significantly move the race in Trump’s favor. He managed to pick a real loser. Democrats will sigh a big sigh of relief on this one.

PS Massive MASSIVE opportunity now for Hillary to pick Julian Castro as her VP and mobilize the Hispanic voter base where there is no Rubio or Martinez or Cruz on the Republican ticket.

Thank you to reader Andrea McKellar (@AMcKellar on Twitter) for spotting the error in Nikki Haley's state (obviously its South not North Carolina, now corrected)

Comments

[Jerry Cote]

Or maybe, just maybe, he consciously chooses to NOT play identity politics, to instead transcend it and appeal to what makes us all the same. He's already DONE that, and he's not going to play it your way now. Of course that would mean Pence has to have some of the same appeal, and I'll agree that I don't see it. And his past TPP stance is anathema to everything Trump is running on - I have to assume Trump beat it out of him.

[Millard Filmore]

@Jerry Cole: I am much more cynical than you. I suspect that Trump finalized negotiations with the sugar daddy behind Pence.

Dang. I wish I could think better of Trump and Republicans. This is depressing.

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi Jerry and Millard

Just to clue you in Jerry, Millard was referring to our earlier speculation (we've been having a discussion here on the blog for more than a year about this election cycle already over dozens and dozens of blog articles). So I think it was originally via Rachel Maddow's comments spotted via Twitter, that we talked here about the MONEY behind the finalists (Newt and Pence). Newt has Sheldon Adelson as his personal sugar-daddy Billionaire. Mike Pence has the Koch Brothers (richest Billionaires in all of US politics). And that Trump picked Pence, its likely Trump and the Koch Brothers have achieved an agreement where Koch money will come to the Trump campaign which was not offered up to now...

Just so you know what Millard was referring to.. (thanks Millard, great point).

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi Millard and Jerry

While I have you here, a bit on the background yes. The money must be a factor (Trump is so far behind in his fund-raising and the traditional Republican money-spigots have been nearly shut). Lets see if in next days suddenly Koch Brothers discover their love of Trump.

Another interesting tidbit, Politico reported while the decision was not yet made, that the battle between Newt and Pence was an internal fight where the family wanted Newt but the campaign professionals (ie Manafort and gang) wanted Pence. So Manafort won (again).

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[cornelius]

The latest polls show a sharp decline for Clinton. A Rasmussen poll gives the lead to Trump at +7%. Then an Economist/YouGov poll has a tiny +2% lead for Clinton. Even CBS News/NY Times which is not a conservative leaning poll finds a tie between Clinton and Trump. Yesterday a Marist poll showed a +3% lead for Clinton.
All polls consistently show Clinton's decline. Well, except Reuters which still has Clinton up by 12.3% as of July 12th.
Even 538 has Clinton's chances of winning the election at 63.3% down from 73.1% just two days ago.
Is this caused by the e-mail investigation? It sure is not Trump's VP nomination which just happened today (BTW, I was first to predict Mike Pence, and even before that I predicted an ultra-conservative VP, in Mike Huckabee, so the Mike part I got it right. Excuse me while I pat myself on the back). Anyone has an explanation for this slide? Will it become permanent? I hope Clinton will rebound.

[EduardoM]

Great post, Tomi, but I disagree that Trump had a lot of better choices for VP. Most of the people you mentioned are reasonably smart politicians who know that hitching their fortunes to Trump would be a disaster for their careers. If Trump wanted a good VP candidate, he should have run a very different campaign the last few months.

As for Condi Rice, she is basically an academician and administrator, not a politician. And besides she is a moderate conservative who I am sure thinks Trump is a complete idiot. And besides, even if she was the VP candidate, I imagine 99% of the Black voters would still vote for Hillary, not the Donald.

A bit off topic: I wonder if there is a gambling place, like in Las Vegas, that is taking bets on whether or not Trump will drop out of the race before election day.

Also, I am thinking that if I were a rich person thinking of donating to Trump, I would require some sort of signed contract that he would not drop out, including some sort of guarantee like collateral in an independently-administered account

[EduardoM]

Tech leaders against Trump:

https://medium.com/@KatieS/an-open-letter-from-technology-sector-leaders-on-donald-trumps-candidacy-for-president-5bf734c159e4#.tvm21addr

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi cornelius

Good question and concern. The Rasmussen poll is totally nuts and far far off the reservation. Its what they do occasionally to rally the Republican voters. The poll has some ridiculous assumptions about turnout and minority/white proportions etc. You can safely ignore it. The CBS/NYT poll is legit and yes, shows an even race. Note that if the race is in reality about +2% for Hillary, then a poll showing 0% is within the margin of error and be consistent with a 2% race. But there are several recent polls that have shown the race getting tighter. It may well be an indicator of the race really tightening up. The RCP average still shows a 3% race (in 2-person race) but if there is a shift, then the RCP average will lag the actual change.

The first thought I have is our best 'barometer' ie Reuters Daily Tracking Poll. It shows NO movement at all. Totally same 12% race or 28 days in a row. Trump has been polling within 1.5% plus/minus around 33% and Hillary being within 1.3% plus/minus near 45%. The Reuters Tracking Poll has very accurately caught the changes in the race (going back to the primary races). I do not believe the race has suddenly gone very tight and nearly even. But the Reuters daily tracker has shown a polling result that is on the high upside favoring Hillary, consistently, so its likely that the reality is not near 12%, it is probably somewhere near say 5% currently.

BUT separately, remember the sudden fear the Democrats had, that Trump might be scared out of the race? I am pretty sure that the Democrats in general and Hillary's team in particular, have rapidly diminished their efforts. They have taken some of the pressure off, and are then stockpiling that money to pour it on right after Trump's Convention is over. That could explain some tightening yes. BUT it would HAVE to then show also in the Reuters Daily Tracker where it isn't showing.

There are often single outlier polls that go kind of wild. The averages tell us where the reality is, or close to it. The immediate next two weeks will be the most volatile time of the election cycle this year, when within a 2 week period there are 5 events that alter the state of the race. So we won't really know the reality until after the Democratic Convention is over in 2 weeks (and polls that come out that were measured completely after that Convention has ended).

We just saw Pence. He will not cause a huge bump to Trump's support in a way that say Marco Rubio or Nikki Haley or Susana Martinez would have. Then we have seen the speakers coming to Trump's family gathering. It will be an ego-trip for Trump but a spectacularly POOR event to boost a candidate's popularity. His bump will be modest at best. Meanwhile Hillary runs nothing if not a professional well-planned campaign. Her VP will provide a bounce, and her Campaign will get a bounce, and both should be bigger than Republican bounces (if any). Plus the Bernie effect. The race will be BETTER for Hillary when first polls of August come out, than it is now. I expect approximately a 10 point race then. Don't worry. But once you get close to the race - haha, as we have kind of become here via the blog - you get also that anxiety the moment it isn't going the way you'd like to see it. I hear you, I know EXACTLY how you feel... As of now, all is good. There is nothing that has damaged Hillary's chances and Pence? He is not a game-changer. The speakers we've seen for Trump? There is no Oprah or Brad Pitt or someone who could be a Ronald Reagan, etc. Its strictly B and C list celebrities and politicians, very VERY mediocre. So you can take it easy, there is no cause to panic. If the situation changes, I'll be here to tell you - now its time to panic (like for example back in 2012, when suddenly Obama, the brilliant debater, came into his first debate against Romney without preparation and was flat and suddenly Romney climbed in the polls).

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi Eduardo

You're correct. Many of the people mentioned were quite vocal in saying no to Trump. And its the obvious smart thing to do. The three finalists that Trump considered were all politicians whose careers had ended or were about to end. Newt will not win any election anywhere anymore. Christie is gone from New Jersey. Pence was headed to a big election loss in Indiana. These were 'desperate' politicians who needed the chance to prolong a career and to try to find a new way if the VP thing didn't work, ie to use this chance to raise their profile to get a Fox TV gig or something. Essentially all smart people said no to Trump. But not all.

Marco Rubio was quite obvious that he wanted the VP slot. Susana Martinez even after being viciously attacked by Trump, left the door open to meet with him and open a dialogue. And many who said no to Trump did it quite late (like Condi Rice) which suggests to me, they were approached and were not satisfied in the way they were treated, and then went public to say no. Trump was quite clear that he wants people to grovel and beg for the job. He was not going to go beg for someone to join his ticket. So Trump was pushing better candidates away simply because of Trump's ego. VERY bad candidate, and poorly managed campaign to allow that. Trump is a natural ACTOR. If he was simply 'directed' (by Manafort) on what his 'role' was for that particular stage, he could have done a good job of wooing a reluctant candidate to join the ticket. But Trump felt because he had won, he had the rights of a dictator.

LOL on Condi Rice thinking Trump is a total idiot. I am certain that is how she feels (like almost all who were with the Bush administrations, excepting for Cheney and Rumsfeld who both had become exiled from the Bush inner circles). And so do most who are in politics, while not all are saying it or showing it. BUT the VP slot could have been 'sold' as a good visible spot to raise a profile in 2016 for a later run. This is obviously Trump's last run, he's the oldest candidate ever to run. But as I said, Trump wants to be a dictator. He can't stand to go begging at his age, and especially at this point in politics. He feels everybody should BEG to be on his ticket or his cabinet or speaking at his Convention.

Now on the betting, I don't know but I would guess Las Vegas will have bookmakers taking that bet haha. On the rich donors, gosh they are really worried that Trump will screw them. If it was a normal politician who had some campaign finance irregularities (fraud, stealing some of the money) it wouldn't be so bad, but Trump is a fellow Billionaire - and a notorious serial bankrupter. They FEAR that he will screw them. So they aren't paying...

On the letter, excellent thanks. And the link. Yeah, 125 leaders in Silicon Valley tech companies are saying Trump would be a disaster as President.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Tomi T Ahonen]

The Nice terrorist news has just broken in the past hour

I am heartbroken. France is facing so much of the violence. I'm in the Cote d'Sur region almost every year, often been to Nice and flying in and out of the airport if visiting neighboring cities like Cannes and Monaco, plus often driven a car there. I love that part of France and Europe.

Now, I had to come and post a political angle to the story. No, not that Trump is likely to exploit it and probably benefit politically. An interesting point in the immediate statement from Trump. He said he is postponing his 11 AM announcement of his VP.

I could imagine that Trump has been monitoring the Twitter feed of his 'triumphant' announcement of Mike Pence - and be shell-shocked at how hostile its been. Almost universal disapproval. Very few supportive Tweets. Even some of Trump's most loyal supporters like haha, Ann Coulter said its a mistake. ALSO as we know, Trump is lazy about doing any work, he probably was very minimal in his vetting of his candidates. He probably didn't know all the faults that came out fast on Twitter about Pence.

Imagine if Trump is having second thoughts about Pence and now wants to take the time to re-assess - and possibly drop Pence and have a 'mulligan' haha, a do-over. Make a new choice. Maybe Newt, maybe Christie, maybe someone else, that General he talked about, or Senator Sessions or someone else. The press event is scheduled for 'tomorrow' morning (its Friday my time) and 14 hours from now. There is plenty of time to have that event and no real reason to postpone it. Maybe Trump is considering dumping Pence haha. Lets see how this plays.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Wayne Borean]

Note that this is from before Pence was mentioned as the probable VP choice.

Nearly Four-Fifths of White Evangelicals Say They’ll Vote for Donald Trump

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/14/us/donald-trump-white-evangelical-voters-poll.html?_r=1

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi idiot and Wayne

idiot - it can very well be. Its possible the whole US press were duped (and obviously this irrelevant blog far in Hong Kong as well). Its possible Trump leaked Pence's name just as a ruse - or possibly as a test balloon. Its also possible that PENCE leaked the name to try to force Trump's hand. Its possible Trump says that no, he never said Pence, and he then announces someone else. You're correct. BUT all major newsmedia report its Pence. CNN has said that its been confirmed by Trump. I go by that, not your opinion. But you are correct, regardless, it may be a ruse.

SEPARATELY, it is at least as much possible that Trump is freaking out by the huge negative backlash and is having second thoughts. He has bought extra time and he can consider, maybe he replaces Pence with Newt or Christie or General whatshiname.

Wayne - yeah, good source thanks. I saw that but didn't have a source handy. Most of the evangelical vote had already migrated to Trump and many conservatives were quite bewildered by that (as Trump is about the least religious person they've seen in ages).

BTW the clown circus element of Trumpalooza Cleveland Convention is continuing. Tim Tebow says he was never asked - and more embarrassing - that he also WON'T speak at the Convention. OUCH. How ridiculously incompetent are the Trumpistas. This is how you manage to bankrupt a casino haha.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[cornelius]

Maybe Trump is postponing the VP announcement because, in the light of the new attack in France, he thinks that a general as VP would boost his ticket. Also it is possible that Trump learned a thing or two about not overlapping favorable news from France with his VP announcement. Maybe he learned to space out the positive news in order to maximise their effect.

[Winter]

No comments are actually posted.

[Winter]

@Tomi
"France is facing so much of the violence."

I try to post a link to a site explaining that "Terrorism is not about Terror", but they never appear.

[Winter]

@Tomi
"France is facing so much of the violence."

IS desperately needs new recruits (cannon fodder). This is a recruitment campaign.

"Terrorism is not about Terror"
(search for the site)
If you ever want to read some real insights in to terrorism, this is it. If you have only followed the News cycle, this will really blow your mind off.

"There is comparatively strong theoretical and empirical evidence that people become terrorists not to achieve their organization’s declared political agenda, but to develop strong affective ties with other terrorist members. In other words, the preponderance of evidence is that people participate in terrorist organizations for the social solidarity, not for their political return."

There is a very nice anecdote about how Al Fatah was able to get rid of the suicidal Black September cell when they had outlived their usefulness. They married them off.

[cornelius]

A bunch of polls from Marist were released today. All have Clinton safely up for all the swing states tested (Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida).
A possible (and partial) explanation for Clinton's recent slide in the polls could be Obama's approval rate in the polls. His approval is approaching even territory lately.
What's interesting is that even when Clinton's numbers in the polls went South, Trump's numbers have not improved. Trump has built such a strong, beautiful wall at 40% that every time he reaches the wall, he bounces back to thirties territory.
Also in the news, all attempts to dump the Trumpster have failed. It is not certain that Trump will indeed be the nominee. It's going to be a lot of fun to watch Trumpence in action.

[cornelius]

Sorry, I meant: It is NOW certain that Trump will indeed be the nominee.

[EduardoM]

Peter Thiel to speak at the Republican convention

https://www.engadget.com/2016/07/14/peter-thiel-republican-national-convention/

More on Thiel

http://nymag.com/selectall/2016/06/peter-thiel.html

[EduardM]

Military coup going on in Turkey. Not clear which side is winning.

http://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-36811357

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/15/turkey-low-flying-jets-and-gunfire-heard-in-ankara1/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y60wDzZt8yg