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July 18, 2016



I just checked Bloomberg and according to it Clinton's superPAC has raised $25 M last month. So the number I reported earlier is wrong.


Why have bad timing, poor speakers and, in general, a disorganized convention? The Total Rump considers himself the greatest star. You wouldn't want the likes of Chuck Berry, Led Zeppelin, Muddy Waters and Aretha Franklin warming up the audience if you're a wanna-be glitter boy band. Everybody would walk out as soon as you tuned up.


I disagree. The bad timing and overall disorganized convention is a direct consequence of lack of funds and Trump's lazy nature. Trump's campaign is understaffed and must cut corners. Attention to detail is completely absent.
The poor speakers situation is a direct consequence of Trump's megalomaniac, narcissistic, bombastic, vindictive nature. The GOP heavyweights are either missing in action or if they show up they refuse to endorse Trump. The press is quick to criticize them for not endorsing the scum that Trump is but AFAIK apart from this blog, nobody else points to the fact that Trump disparaged, antagonized and humiliated the losers of the GOP primary so badly (often needlessly, after Trump already won) that it is totally understandable their refusal to endorse. Maybe this is by design, so later Trump can blame the GOP for his exit or his failure in the general election.
But I like your analogy. I think Justin Bieber would be a nice act to open the show for Trump.


Two pictures that speak volumes. #GOPSoWhite

Millard Filmore

@Tomi: I am watching CNN here in Shenzhen. The talking heads are discussing many of the same WTF moments (e.g. the NYT interview) that you brought up 8 hours ago. They must be reading what you write here.

crun kykd

Melania's apology for plagiarizing Michelle's speech is finally out.

"I never meant to cause you any sorrow. I never meant to cause you any pain. I only wanted to see you laughing. Laughing in the Purple rain."


"I think Justin Bieber would be a nice act to open the show for Trump." -- cornelius

Oh, no. Gotta be a grand faker. How about...


@grouch LOL, man! I've forgotten about Milli Vanilli :-)

Speaking of music at the convention... During day 1 there was a band playing covers. They played AC/DC's "You shook me all night long". They totally butchered the song. And still it wasn't as bad as Celine Dion's cover of the same song (I watched the video clip by accident. You can see it on Youtube, I won't dignify it with a link).

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

Trump just ended his speech. So Day 4 review. Finally a day without major hassles and problems. The politicial speakers were weakest of the top political speeches, in particular by delivery (but no risk of outshining Trump's acceptance speech). The business people had some good positive themes but I think to independent and undecided voters, a couple of rich guys as long-term Trump friends, are not exactly the strongest endorsements. Ivanka had a good speech delivered VERY well. There was outreach and the acceptance of the openly gay exec was nice - but come on, for a national party in 2016, that his positive reception is only relevant because of how homophobic the party has been.

A series of good, roughly class B speeches but nothing really weak or weird or off. In that way, BY FAR the best day of the week - if you're going to have 3 wasted days, obviously this is the most important day and it did work.

Trump? A speech that was reasonably good as written, and Trump almost kept to the Teleprompter. I do believe Trump could not believe in advance how many and how long interruptions he was going to get - that it was written to be significantly too long by again, incompetence and Trump's strong personality overruling his speech-writing team.

Now two problems that I think were speech-writing gaffes. The USA is in a war (Afghanistan) and no recognition or thanks to the soldiers on the front-line. And what seemed odd, at the end, was that he did not ask for God to bless the USA. He ended it with the words 'God bless you, and good night. I love you' - if these were in a Democratic speech, the Republicans would be all over the nominee as being unpatriotic. I am expecting some push-back about those details.

Now the speech content. Its mostly the same themes as his stump speech, a kind of 'best hits' and thus of course heavily fear-mongering. BUT it was crafted in far stronger constructed sentences and paragraphs than how Trump jams on those themes when he delivers speeches without the Teleprompter. I think it was incredibly dark, angry, with plenty of blatant lies and false discredited stats. But it tried to scare the population that there is a horrible exploding area of inner cities, that will scare the voters in the suburbs and the small towns and farms, that they have to vote for the 'law and order' candidate.

Same with the terrorism. That there is a huge crop of terrorist already threatening America, and that Hillary will bring 500% more terrorists in. There were several good targeted messages to specific voter groups like the pitch at the end to evangelical voters (and some mock humility acted in). There were two appeals to Bernie voters. There was the appeal to NRA members and the conservatives worried about the Supreme Court.

BUT there were obviously also issues that were weird and not in line with Republican themes, especially protectionist trade positions and the foreign policy.

Now his delivery was not strong, its better than his early Teleprompter speeches but compare to Ivanka, Trump was quite wooden. He has been practising, that we can see. The speech didn't have humor (why?) and didn't have any uplifting hopeful views. I think this opens the Hillary speech for a lot of potential to be the uplifting hopeful and at times funny speaker. The audience wants to fall in love with the speaker and Trump could have done better, the speech was so dark and angry and fearful.

Onto his 'plan' there was nothing. He promises to fix everything by 'Trumpian magic'. And what seems a bit weird, in a speech at this stage - to say how many things he fixes on January 20 or really really fast. So the speech has a lot of stuff that sounds like its too good to be true, a used-car salesman's pitch. But lastly, there wasn't much to reach to the middle. Black voters, yes, he did touch a bit, education. For gay people, the slightest reach, to protect them from attacks by FOREIGN threats (useless, because this very room has the people who encourage far more prevalent DOMESTIC attacks, starting with the party platform of this very Convention). And nothing to reach Hispanics and very little to women. For all the words in it, I think this part is the big fail, he mostly repurposed his stump speech - this works well with Republicans (the room, the audience) BUT it WILL NOT convert ANYONE who is undecided. So this speech fails on the MAIN purpose it has - this is the largest TV audience Trump has ever had, and he will only three times get a larger audience before election day (the 3 debates). So for his chance to REACH undecided voters and CONVERT undecided voters - then you do not FEED RED MEAT to the room. You go beyond. The OTHER speakers before you, they feed the red meat. This speech has to be 'Presidential' not that partisan.

Of the 4 days, this is by far the best day for Trump. Was it an excellent day, no, but because of the previous days being so horrid, this seems good by contrast. But yes, it was a good day. The speeches were good. The Trump speech itself, good. Delivered in a mediocre way. No huge mess-ups (that I could catch) but a few surprising 'misses' that would have been VERY easy to fix with one or two lines. It did show Trump pretty well to a national audience. The day did help his run. But this speech could have gone far to help find new support to Trump, I think this speech does nothing.

Thats my take. Now lets see how many hours until Hillary jumps on whatever modest Convention bounce might be produced, with her VP choice. (one could argue that the damage is so bad with the Cruz snub, the NATO threat and possibly other minor details like no mention of soldiers in Afghanistan etc, that Hillary should let this 'bad' Convention linger for a day, but she does need to get her VP out into the press before her Convention starts, and get the weekend press coverage, so she can't really wait long, it really should come on Friday not Saturday).

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen


Just as I was posting that, CNN broke the news that Hillary is going to introduce her VP in Miami Florida on Saturday at an event there, and will announce the pic via SMS on Friday eve to her fans and supporters. CNN said the top choices were Vilsack and Kaine.

(and I still think.. Miami.. they are giving a head-fake, they want the Hispanics to feel a bit disappointed to think it'll be once again someone totally white.. to get max boost when she announces Castro)

Still.. pretty nifty, they push this story out IMMEDIATELY after the Trump Convention has ended, so that the media pundits can start to do their speculation discussions because for news, the next big news thing is always more important than digging into further details of what just ended..

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen


Oh, and clearly we 'got' Trump... Now if he pulls out, it will mean he is quitting (or if he doesn't pull out, then he will become the biggest loser). But in the wonderful saga of this election cycle, I think some Hollywood stunt might be in order.

Now, also to let you guys know, because Trump has filed paperwork that the campaign doesn't have any debts anymore, it does mean, that he has reported that the loans are forgiven. This means essentially that Trump is not in any scam to try to recover his expenditures.

(AND there is AGAIN a change in his behavior. The lavish extravagant spending he did in May, that has ended, he is back to a more tightly-run campaign, and isn't funneling much of the incoming money back into huge pockets with TRUMP written on it, but in so many separate movements because he can't fit that much money per grab, because of those tiny hands with short stubby fingers)

We didn't get a genuine floor-fight or a brokered convention/deadlocked convention but we do get Trump as the official Candidate by the Republicans. And he is not pivoting much (he did a bit, he didn't mention Mexico is paying for the wall, but he's still building it; and the total ban of Muslims is now a ban of all citizens from terrorist countries)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Per "wertigon" Ekström

If anything could ruin Hillary it's this:

Only 52% of Sanders supporters are willing to vote Hillary right now, this number will however probably increase as time goes on and it dawns on the millenials that while Hillary is bad, Trump will ruin the country... :)


"and it dawns on the millenials that while Hillary is bad, Trump will ruin the country... "

Ruin would be an understatement. "No future" would be a more apt description for the Millenials.

This is also the foolishness of the "Anyone but Hillary" movement. After Hillary, they can vote another time. After Trump, they may not have a country left. Think Putin. In reality, "Anyone but Hillary" is "My way or death".

It is my personal belief that one of the reasons Putin supports Syria's Assad in exterminating half of his population is to show his own people what will happen if they EVER try to get rid of him.


Did anybody else see a resemblance between Der Trump and Mussolini after he delivered that line, "This is the legacy of Hillary Clinton: death, destruction, terrorism and weakness"? I recall that same smug, frowning look on Mussolini's face in the old newsreels.

Maybe I'm too isolated and insulated, but I haven't seen doom and gloom like this since Reagan claimed to want to "make America great again". (Of course you have to paint a gloomy picture with that claim. That way, when people look around and can't find the doom and gloom, you can take credit).

Aha! Trumpistas are like Elvis worshippers -- they don't accept their demi-god's death. They think Trump is channeling Ronnie, the ex-parrot. [ ]


"Did anybody else see a resemblance between Der Trump and Mussolini after he delivered that line, "

Il Druce ?

Did he look like this?



OMG. After seeing your comment, I started to google Mussolini and google suggested "mussolini trump", which resulted in *lots* of hits. One image had Il Douche as a caption. Looks like I'm a few months behind.

I don't know whether to be reassured that I wasn't the first or only one to see that, or to be more afraid.


Somebody should make this a billboard in every large city:


'This darkness is called Trump.' At a faux wake, longtime Republicans mourn their party

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

Ok on the money race (aka the hidden primary). We have the first reporting of a full month (or almost) where both sides were now the presumptive nominees, and both sides were seriously fund-raising (ie Trump's weird semi-self-funding had ended).

How good are they? In the month of June, Hillary raised $36.3M while Trump raised $26.7M. That is still a slightly misleading number to measure their fund-raising power. Hillary had paid $100,000 of her own money into her race, Trump threw in $2M as a contribution but also lent the campaign another $1.8M. So if we look at the 'real' race in terms of how good are the campaigns at RAISING money from donors, Hillary raised $36.2M and Trump raised $22.9M. Hillary outperforms currently Trump by 58%. Thats a VERY big lead BUT Trump is clearly ramping up - and now that he has a relatively unified party, and his speech was targeted at the core supporters, he should see further boost to his fund-raising (but ALSO, the Democratic fund-raising picks up after their Convention).

There is also two major other fund-raising activities that target the same donors and go partly or fully into the Presidential campaign. Its the SuperPAC money (Hillary outraised Trump by $11.9M to $5.0M) and then 'other' which mostly involves the party. This gives a grand total of 'Democratic-leaning' fund-raising commpared to 'Republican-leaning' fund-raising by ALL different units, asking money from the same voters, and that go for the most part into the Presidential race, or support that race in joint efforts. In THAT race, the total big picture (including both of the above) the race was in June: $146.3M collected by Democrats and $81.1M collected by Republicans. The Democrats are ahead by 80%.

These are huge advantages from the moment in time of the end of June. They do reflect the suppressed Republican enthusiasm from fund-raising 'traditional' supporters such as the Koch brothers flooding money into this cycle. Note one relevant point that I picked up from one of the article talking of this cycle. Hillary in June was ahead of both the Obama 2012 and Romney 2012 campaigns in June of that year, which were the highest level ever raised in any campaign up to that point. Hillary is AHEAD at this point, and Trump is severely behind.

Now, what of money in the bank? Hillary actual campaign has $44.4M while Trump has $20.0M. Hillary twice the amount. Her SuperPAC has $40.2M in the bank while the several Trump SuperPACs combined have barely $2.0M in the bank. The total by all entities including the party and the above two items, has the Democrats going into this race with $139.2M in the bank while the Republicans have $61.4M so the Democrats have more than twice the money.

We witnessed in this week exactly what it means if you don't have the money to run a proper campaign. The mess with the plagiarism. The campaign fumbling totally the apology and letting this issue linger as the top story for 36 hours. The disorganized speech sequences, topics and timing. And that Trump's speech was leaked to the press an hour before he started to speak. All of this is because the team is understaffed and overworked. Note. The battle ONLY gets tougher, harder, more intense and higher pace from here. So the stress on the campaign will get only worse. It doesn't help to have the guy on the top who is volatile and has a notoriously nasty temper who is prone to fire people especially who are new to the organization (anyone hired by Manafort, who would tend to be the only professionals in the campaign).

Which brings me to the staff. Hillary grew her paid full-time staff to 651. Trump has 74 paid staff. Its a 9 to 1 advantage (BUT.. if Trump isn't rolling out anything more than the thinnest ground-organization, there is no real reason for Hillary to engage in a huge 'arms race' if they outnumber the competition by more than 5 to 1, so her 'need' to hire more is severely reduced by the unconventional approach by Trump; its like an army, if the other side doesn't have an air force, then YOUR side doesn't have to spend much of anything on anti-aircraft systems)

On expenditures, the Hillary campaign spent $34.4 million dollars in June, of which $20.2M went into TV advertising. Trump spent $8.4M of which under $10,000 went into advertising. In addition to that, Hillary's SuperPAC spent essentially all its money on its advertising (against Trump) worth $23.7M. Against Hillary I didn't get the exact amount run by the SuperPACs but its something in the order of $3M or so. So the total TV ad war had $43.9M going on the air on Hillary's side against about $3M on Trump's side (the largest part which was that NRA ad campaign focusing on anti-Hillary ads around Benghazi).

One interesting tidbit, Trump's salary expenditures were $2.5M which is REALLY heavy spending on the staff so small. It means the AVERAGE salary is paid at a an annual salary level of $405,000 dollars per employee !!!! (But remember, this is in some ways a Trump family employment scheme). If we take Trump's $5M annual salary out, it still leaves the remaining 73 employees earning an average salary of $345,000 per year !!! Nice gig in terms of salary, if you manage to get yourself hired by Trump haha. It would be interesting to have someone with the time go through the math and calculate out Trump's salary vs other Trump family members vs non-Trump related employees, and see how that splits. I'd guess Trump pays his kids each at least a million dollars per person per year haha... That could bring the average salary for non-family members to average something like $250,000 maybe (still incredibly high - but look at what kind of rotten personalities are willing to work for Trump: Evidence: Manafort, omg what a revolting human being).

Tomi Ahonen :-)


"Manafort, omg what a revolting human being)."

Given his histiry, I would not be surprised if he were a full blown psychopath. Fits nicely in with Il Druce himself.

After the Republican convention, it is good to wash your mind with some human sense:

Being Honest About Trump

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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