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July 18, 2016

Comments

Winter

Melania inspired by the best

Politics|Melania Trump's Speech Bears Striking Similarities to Michelle Obama's in 2008
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/20/us/politics/melania-trump-speech.html

Tomi T Ahonen

OMG..

Hey this, THIS is THE exit !!!!

They planted an OBVIOUS plagiarized line. Trump will blame speech-writer and fire the person. Then Trump will be outraged how the evil media attacked his wife. And Trump uses THIS as the excuse to pull out. Well played..

Gosh, this could be it

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Winter

@Tomi
"And Trump uses THIS as the excuse to pull out. Well played."

Obviously, Cruz has his acceptance speech already written. But with Trump, you never know.

Isceald Glede

The 'no guns for no-flyers' law would make sense if there was some kind of sanity in the way names are added to and ideally removed from the no-fly list.
https://www.wired.com/2014/02/no-fly-coverup/

grogxd

“I mean, she was speaking in front of 35 million people last night,” Mr. Manafort said. “She knew that. To think that she would be cribbing Michelle Obama’s words is crazy.”

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/jul/19/paul-manafort-there-was-no-cribbing-michelle-obama/

To me it sounds like Manafort is turning in Melania. Well, someone has to fall for this, and she already said that the speech was hers... but will Trump go along with him? I don't think so haha

sgtrock

@Isceald;

Agreed. The No-Fly list is peppered with bad data, it's nearly impossible to get off it once you find out you're on it, and it will cost you FAR too much money to do so because the government makes specious arguments. It takes the concept of the rule of law and stands it on its head. Where is the due process in this whole mess?

Frankly, the whole concept just gives me the willies. There are far better ways of securing flights without restricting the general public's freedom of movement. The British, Isrealis, and Germans were demonstrating how to do so for decades before 9/11.

While I sympathize with Tomi's desire to see access to (some) firearms restricted in some way, I have a real problem with usng such a flawed tool to do so. I personally would be a lot happier with better background checks and closing the so-called gun show loophole. That, at least, would be consistent with existing laws without expanding the use of a tool that goes against Western legal tradition.

To illustrate my point, I'm going to quote from a novel that I've been re-reading:

"Mr. Prince, would you like to know the most significant event in the history of freedom?"

"The American Revolution?"

"A defensible choice, a close second even, but not mine. I would choose the moment when the Roman plebians required the patricians to write down the twelve tables of the law and put them where everyone could see them -- thereby proclaimed the law supreme over the politicians. The rule of law is the essence of freedom."

Winter

@sgtroxk
Isn't your argument very revealing?
1: Being able to shoot people is a more basic need than being able to travel

2: The USA are utterly unable to remove obvious non-terrorists from the no-fly list. This is a level of incompetence worthy of Haiti or Ivory Coast.

Winter

What a Donald Trump economy might look like
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-a-donald-trump-economy-might-look-like/

grogxd

If the media and Hillary's team don't let this Melania fiasco die within the next few days I can easily see her broken. And if Trump is mentally unstable by himself alone...

I must say that if all of this is a conspiracy done by Trump to abandon the race, he's fucking good at it.

Winter

@grogxd
The first response is already in. IIRC, one of the writers off the original Mi helle speech wrote he found Melania's speech the least objectionable of all he had seen at the convention.

This is a case where the Obama's and Hilary can do most damage by praising her and her speech.

I know I would jump at the opportunity.

sgtrock

@Winter:

"1: Being able to shoot people is a more basic need than being able to travel"

Wait, what? I'm confused. That's not what I was trying to say at all.

Winter

@sgtrock
No, I dormulated that in a confusing way. I was writing about the arguments used in this discussion. The brunt of the argument used in the USA is that people are put unjustly on the no-fly list and they should therefore not be denied the right to buy a gun.

cornelius

Here is a nice analysis and forecast from NY Times.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html

They give Clinton a 76% chance to win which is slightly up compared to the 538 prediction at 64%

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

First quick snapshot from polling world. This is now the very volatile period. But yes, after Trump announced his VP (even with the botched leak) the race has apparently tightened. There are two polls out now that show a dead-even race, the RCP average is shrinking to 2% and the Reuters daily tracking poll has come down from 13% to 7% (and note, its a 3-day moving average, if the active trend is currently down, it means the very latest of the 3 days is below the average ie Monday score is under 7% probably 6% and can be as close as 5%). Now we should see more of the effect as the full-on press by the Republicans is happening and obviously the unification of the Republican party.

Second, on the Melania Trump plagiarism. Gosh. The Campaign decided to go with 'there is no cheating'. Gosh. Yeah, that IS in line with Trump's personality but this is now an expanding team and it was Melania's script-writer who made that error. There is no way Melania herself took Michelle's speech from 2008 and decided to write a speech based on that haha. No way. So it was some speech-writer and may well have had some 'generic text' snippets not remembering anymore that some of those were from that Michelle Obama 2008 speech. But gosh, that they now deny it?

So one, the story is alive. It could have been killed last night when the story broke. Idiots. Then they are now forcing all their surrogates to suffer through that obvious lie, trying to defend the indefensible, with quite ridiculous positions. I did for a hoot a Google search of one of the half-sentences verbatim (Google searched it with quotes) and gosh. It is ONLY Michelle's speech from 2008 and a few books that quote her in the interim, then a brief surge interest in it a couple of years ago but nobody else, before or after, has used that phrase. Nobody. Until now, yesterday, Melania.

She said on TV that she wrote the speech with minimal help from the team. So she has to own this. She stole from Michelle Obama the first lady. Thats rude, its also stealing intellectual property, its also unethical; and its a HORRID example for the nation in particular anyone in school whether students or teachers. Its open-and-shut case, there is so much text, in unique word sequence with several not-very-common words that its obvious. It was lifted, verbatim. And any college student who tried this would be expelled. Why would she be allowed to not take responsibility for it?

So the easy quick solution is, that Manafort holds a press conference and reads a short statement, where the Campaign apologizes to Michelle Obama and says one speech writer is fired. Its gone. The story is dead. If Melania was a lady, she'd be at the press conference herself and read a short statement herself, and apologize to the First Lady. And the mid-position is that Manafort reads a statement that has a written apology but Melania does not show up.

Now, by not apologizing, it meant that the story was live the whole night and next day. It was the lead story from ALL major media (except Fox apparently) and worse - on TV they are now playing the two clips side-by-side. THIS IS IDIOTIC by the Campaign. Their own message is being DROWNED. And Michelle - MICHELLE - is on TV being quoted from a VERY powerful delivery of those same lines from 2008, with incredible passion and emotion (and Melania looks wooden and cold when placed in split-screen next to her).

They are NOT running any valuable lines from Melania's speech that the campaign could use. This is literally language so 'generic' American that yes, Michelle said those about Obama. It also keeps Michelle on the screen when that time should have been about how nasty Hillary was, and with the top speakers of Day 1 should be quoted. Michelle is the most liked politician in America. The last thing Trump wants is for HER to be on TV.

But of course, it gets worse now. So then the media was sent out to dig and see is this a story. Well of course it is. Now we have seen that Melania's college degree from Ljubljana University does not exist. She is listed as having a college degree - but she doesn't have one. Again a lie, exaggeration about Melania. Then yes, there is more. Then they found she has been plagiarizing before. They found a Tweet with a truly nasty edit. She quoted 5 lines out of 6, where the out-edited line warned about stealing !!! All this makes Melania look ever less trustworthy, and it feeds the story that the Trump family is crooked. The Campaign are IDIOTS for keeping this alive.

I do think Manafort has to kill this story today. They will be losing a day out of this. They have only 3 days left of the Convention. Gosh, CNN is now doing the play SIMULTANEOUSLY and its so obviously wrong. Yeah. This looks WAY WAY worse than it really is, and the Campaign is idiots to let this linger.

And obviously if this is the exit for Trump then yeah, well played. But if not, gosh this is again a new example of utterly incompetent behavior.

(PS Queen complaining that Trump used We Are the Champions withour permission). So Trump's own book The Art of the Deal, had a ghost writer who now has come out a few days ago and warns Trump is dangerous. BUT its all part of the sleaze and lies about Trump. I think he is doing a steady bombardment of eroding his credibility. And that makes him ever more vulnerable for the attacks which will get quite overbearing next week.

Ok, thats the immediate thoughts for now from the race

Tomi Ahonen :-)

cornelius

We are focusing so much on the Convention that we don't notice other important stuff from yesterday like Republican congressman Steve King's ignorant remarks that reek white supremacy:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/19/us/politics/steve-king-nonwhite-subgroups.html

grogxd

So that's it then. Trump now is the official nominee of the gop.

Does this mean that if he resigns the GOP is left without a candidate? Because that would be hilarious (and catastrophic to them, a dead sentence with the liberals around)

Millard Filmore

About that plagiarism of Melania's, Daily Kos reprinted this tweet:

If Michelle Obama begins her speech next week with "Ever since my childhood in Slovenia..." it would be the greatest thing ever
— Brian Hiatt (@hiattb) July 19, 2016

cornelius

If I were Michelle Obama I would've sent Melania a tweet something like:
"Congratulations Melania for your wonderful speech. I thought I had a deja vu"

cornelius

It appears that the two finalists for Clinton's VP are Kaine and Vilsack

http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/19/politics/hillary-clinton-vice-president-search/

If that's the case then I put all my money on Kaine. As for Castro, I've seen people argue that he is no longer needed since the Latinos will vote Democrat anyway (especially now that Trump's VP is not Latino). I think that's wrong. Castro is not only useful now (helps with the youth vote, helps with Nevada, Arizona, Florida) but also in the long term he will help bring the Latinos under the Democratic tent for good.

Winter

@cornelius
"think that's wrong. Castro is not only useful now (helps with the youth vote, helps with Nevada, Arizona, Florida) but also in the long term he will help bring the Latinos under the Democratic tent for good."

I think Clinton will go for the biggest margin THIS election. Minorities, women and young voters have nowhere else to go. The one demographic Hilary is weak are older white men.

Kaine speaks fluent spanish and has worked as a missionary in Honduras. He is pro-life AND pro choice (and anti death penalty). He is also called a honorary latino. And he brings in Virginia.

http://bluevirginia.us/2016/02/senator-tim-kaine-joins-latinos-con-hillary-to-get-out-the-vote-in-arlington

http://bluevirginia.us/2016/02/senator-tim-kaine-joins-latinos-con-hillary-to-get-out-the-vote-in-arlington

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