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« To Our Readers: Expect a lot of political articles next month, but will cover tech/mobile also when such stories break | Main | From Smartphone Side.. Foxconn/Hon Hai buys ex-Nokia giant phone factory in Vietnam from Microsoft »

July 08, 2016

Comments

Millard Filmore

@Tomi: I have some reservations about ending his run through a fake assassination.

1) it would have to be fairly close to the election, with too little time for demands of independent verification of his wounds.

2) would Trump trust the assassin to use fake bullets? Maybe a car crash scenario would be better.

3) some stunt men have died by putting a real gun up to their head with blank bullets and pulling the trigger. The muzzle blast did them in. It would have to be planned out VERY well, and once again would Trump trust the participants?

crun kykd

I think that in all future elections he will be able to charge good money for his Trump-approved branded endorsement of whatever then running GOPer candidate. He will be able to say that he can sway millions of voters at a much lower cost per voter than the candidate buying generic TV ads. A new line of business for him that trades on his name. Perfect.

Winter

I was thinking. How can Trump escape after pulling of this con? He made many, many very powerful enemies. How to keep the spoils? Where can you go if both the president and both houses of parliament of hte USA hate you?

Follow Snowden and go to Moscow, that is the best opportunity. And Trump has his own jet to fly there.

Puts Trump's admiration for Putin in a new perspective.

Wayne Borean


@Winter,

And since his plane is probably leased, stiff that company too!

Winter

Tomi, you are not alone in your believes. Salon.com has reported on this at least since February:

Title:
Donald Trump is a fraud: Report confirms the billionaire’s presidential bid is a long and calculated con job
Everything Trump has done during the campaign is designed to dupe the media into funding his marketing strategy
http://www.salon.com/2016/02/01/donald_trump_is_a_fraud_report_confirms_the_billionaires_presidential_bid_is_a_long_and_calculated_con_job/


Title:
Following the Trump money: He’s running his campaign just like his casinos — as a big scam
Trump's campaign has been sloppy at best and fraudulent at worst, reports show — and he's getting away with it
http://www.salon.com/2016/07/07/following_the_trump_money_hes_running_his_campaign_just_like_he_did_his_casinos_as_a_big_scam/

And here is CNN:
Trump directs nearly one-fifth of his money to his own businesses
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/06/21/politics/donald-trump-business-spending-fec/

Breitbart did manage to find a "Campaign Finance Expert" (is that a certification?) to claim that Trump is "forced by campaign finance laws to pay “fair market value” for services or products that benefit the campaign, even from companies affiliated with the candidate,"

http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/07/02/exclusive-campaign-finance-expert-reveals-media-dishonesty-on-trump-fec-filing/

Except that it is widely suspected that there is a big difference between "fair market value" and what the Trump campaign pays.

Obviously, this is all the fault of the dishonest media.

Winter

Some more articles along these lines:

Trump Is Using His Campaign as a Personal Piggy Bank
http://www.truth-out.org/opinion/item/36717-a-campaign-is-not-a-personal-piggy-bank

The Huffington Post has even coined a nice name to it:
The Donzi Scheme
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/will-durst/the-donzi-scheme_b_10846568.html

And here is someone who would be happy to pick up the "loans" from Trump:

Vladimir Putin Has a Plan for Destroying the West—and It Looks a Lot Like Donald Trump
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/cover_story/2016/07/vladimir_putin_has_a_plan_for_destroying_the_west_and_it_looks_a_lot_like.html

"And though it may be a mere coincidence, Trump’s inner circle is populated with advisers and operatives who have long careers advancing the interests of the Kremlin."

cornelius

Hi Tomi,

I think your recent hecklers are in fact one person. And he is probably using proxy servers in order to get different IP addresses. Maybe it is a good idea to ask an IT guy on how to block proxy servers.
Your blog is one of the very few places where one can actually have an intelligent discussion on both mobile and politics topics. I hope you won't be deterred by idiots like LOLOL.

Winter

Tomi, I do not think a fake assassinayion attempt will work. Too many people would lose out. There are several federal bureaus involved that are difficult to control. And the Democrats will look out for any sign of such an attempt.

But a fake health episode is very well possible. Just provide some drug that mimmicks a hearth attack or the like. He would be hospitalized with "friendly" staff. This scenario has only upsides. Very difficult to prove, no crimes commited (no FBI), no terrorists (no CIA/NSA). And so on.


I hope Hillaries campaign has good plans for that scenario.

Winter

More people are speculating that Trump might quite the race:

Would Donald Trump Quit if He Wins the Election? He Doesn’t Rule It Out
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/08/us/politics/donald-trump-president.html?_r=0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VgjRXK_vsTo

How Is Donald Trump Going to Quit?
http://gawker.com/how-is-donald-trump-going-to-quit-1782312998

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Cornelius:

Comments like LOLOL that doesn't add anything to the discussion gets deleted on a regular basis here, so don't you worry. :) Best way is simply to ignore them.

Though there are some shady bits with the 9/11 event - like, on that day *all* higher-ups were gone on a trip. Many shady questions are left unanswered like the traces of thermite and how three buildings, all supposedly suffering assymetric damage, managed to collapse symmetricly - as if demolished on purpose.

Regardless the truth would not matter much today, history has happened and we know today that the american response to these events was entirerly over the top. Like this - a little kid takes a slingshot and shoots a rock at you, hitting you in the chest and leaving a bruise. What is your response to this? The U.S. responded with taking out their gun and shooting the kid. Proportional response, hardly. Necessary, perhaps.

But that is a discussion for another day.

Wayne Borean


@PWE,

No, it is more like a kid hits you with a slingshot leaving a bruise, so you pull out an RPG, blow a hole in the kid, take out the row of houses he is standing in front of, then use a flamethrower on the remnants.

steve epstein

7-20-2016 is the drop date for his loan conversion document.
It is day 3 of the convention.
Day 4 or coronation is too late to file.
Losing the election and losing 50 million is not an option.
He needs an out.
Also not releasing his tax returns is not an option through October.

He met the GOP senators and Reps...and not one photo op of anyone shaking his hand. Not one.

It's over.

Cruz or Gov. K. needs to get their dry cleaning done.
s/

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

First off, I want to mention a VERY relevant observation from one of my Twitter followers who read the blog. She is Lisa Westerfield @MidWestOcean (she lives in Kansas City, Missouri). Lisa mentioned that Trump has a special tax status on his real estate business, that means he pays lower taxes on his real estate income than people who have a full-time job but also real estate investments. To qualify for that 'Real Estate Professional' status for tax purposes, Trump has to prove every year that he did work more than half of the year, more than 183 days in his real estate business. If he fails to do that, he will lose this very valuable tax status and Trump's taxes would shoot up.

So one, it explains why the bizarre activities every so often with Trump that relate to his golf courses etc. The trip to Scotland (2 days) probably counts as 3 days with travel time included, for his tax status. It also explains why Trump did not schedule clear political events while he did that trip. And he must have his 'tax days' deadline approaching fast, where he must do 'all remaining days of the calendar year' in real estate 'work' or else he'll lose his status. Because obviously up to now, Trump has done far less than half of the first half of the year, in real estate. Then he needs to do more than half, at the same ratio, for the rest of the year. July 20 might also be a critical timing window with that haha...

But its a VERY interesting angle. Lisa pointed to an article at DailyKos (just two weeks ago) which talks about this status and its relevance. I urge all to go read it.

m.dailykos.com/story/2016/6/24/1541884/-Donald-Trump-part-time-nominee …

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Millard, crun and Winter,

Millard - fair points. But also remember, Trump is nothing if not dramatic. A heart attack or fake kidnapping would not give him the footage he'd want. A spectacular shooting near-death survival of bloody assassination attempt, that would make him a hero (and help make the terrorist threat even more feared..)

It has risks yes, but also a well designed fake assassination with fake bullets, fake blood etc, would work with really no danger to Trump. Then the issue is the shooter. The US security services would not stop until they had that shooter and how to somehow fake his death enough to fool the FBI etc, that is not so sure. For Trump's reputation to remain after this stunt, the illusion has to be maintained perfectly. The shooter either has to escape (which in reality won't happen, the US even got Bin Laden) or else the shooter has to die (for real). And no amount of money would really buy the 100% certainty that some pretend-killer would be willing to die in this charade (and not actually try to kill Trump in the process haha). BUT I'm not a Hollywood producer with experience of incredible special effects like Mad Max Fury Road, or experience with the research into the story of a real live US military sniper when they prepared the story to American Sniper.

An added and very severe complication in any assassination attempt or kidnap scenario is the Secret Service. That body of people is really some of the very best the US can find with an incredibly high sense of duty to their job. Yes, they've had several problems recently with hookers and various intrusions into the White House etc, but the Secret Service agents actually serving in the security detail, their reputation is impeccable for that job. And to consider how to get them out of the way, that would be another severe obstacle.

So yeah, fake heart attack or some other such incident which is out of the hands of the Secret Service, that would be 'easiest' to pull off. BUT we need to look out for HOW Trump quits, if its him announcing it openly at the Convention or just before, thats one thing (or say, before the debate). But if its some 'event' that takes him out - we need to be very suspicious haha.. Boy would it be tremendous, if it was something as poorly EXECUTED as Trump's alleged campaign? He has some fake assassination attempt go off, the blood spurts out of his shirt before the shot is fired, the assasin was supposed to get away but the local cops catch him in the act, the whole story unravels in a few days, its all a con job.. that would be incredible - and considering how much of the Keystone Cops this operation has been so far, that is also plausible. That Trump has set up some idea, but partly because Trump doesn't want this, or insists on that, etc - with many last-minute changes - it is so messed up, the illusion is shattered even during the execution, and slow-motion video footage shows already that it was a sham haha...

crun - haha, only if Trump really succeeds. But yeah, if he has a really smart way of pulling out - to launch his TV station for example - with his reputation intact, then yes. But its far more likely that Trump's personal reputation is damaged - and now as he's been taking money from 400,000 Americans, they would be livid if this turns out to be a scam then haha, Trump will be exiled and nobody wants to go kiss his ring.

Winter - haha. Gosh, hadn't thought of that angle. Why not Moscow, go set up Putin's new range of golf courses and retire on the fab beaches of the Black Sea in freshly re-acquired Russian property in Crimea. Trump's biggest problem is his fame and his ego now. He is clearly bitten by the celebrity disease at a level he has never experienced before - and at a level only few top Rock Stars and athletes ever get to experience. Trump has probably had 500 events with over 1,000 people in audience and over 100 events with over 10,000 in audience - thats really really rare level of popularity and look at how all stars take it when that fame is taken away - its into drugs and all sorts of depression and problems. So partly, that is the conflict that prevents Trump from quitting early; and partly, its what must be guiding Trump in deciding what is his exit play. He wants to be able to continue the fame bit. A TV station would be a good way to go forward but how could Trump abandon the Presidential run and he can't risk staying in the race till November because he can't take the label of 'loser'.

BTW Putin? He does NOT want Trump to quit and take Putin's money and then not try to run till the end. Putin would probably welcome Trump to Moscow and then poison him on arrival, with polonium, and watch Trump die. Putin's only incentive to fund Trump would be to try if Trump can win the Presidency (even if the odds are weak, Hillary could have a health episode - AND Putin might even have the KGB working on that plan). If Putin has funded Trump then Putin will not be pleased if Trump quits. If inspite of Manafort having connections to the Kremlin, there is no money connection between Trump and Putin, then Putin would not care, and he would probably offer Trump a sanctuary simply to annoy the Americans.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Back to Winter's point

Making enemies. One, if Trump stays till November (and I do seriously & deeply hope he does), he will have headed the election that destroyed the GOP up and down the ticket, losing not just his own race but flipping the Senate and House (and will be blamed for 'losing' the Supreme Court) but also a large number of Governorships (Kansas! Hillary is up 2% in Kansas in Nate Silver's state-by-state standings) and local governments. He would become a pariah to conservatives and Republicans and the word 'trump' would become a curse word. At least Sarah Palin had support among the Tea Party, Trump would not have anything left.

BUT if Trump quits before, then it depends both on how he quits and what he does after that. If Trump quits just to grab the money and bankrupt his campaign and screw the voters and donors, then he'll be hated. But if he manages to stage a heroic escape (so say he really pulls off successfully a fake assassination attempt, Trump fighting for his life on life-support for a month, then in a coma, then wakes up say in mid November) then he'd have his reputation intact.

Or some stunt but one that endears him to his base even if most others hate him. So say there is something Trump is able to spin as the media and GOP ganging up against Trump (a Convention where he is denied the nomination) then of course he could quit because the party was unfair, blame others, and remain popular with his fanatical supporters. It depends on how he does his escape.

I want Trump to stay till November and lose by 20 points, so his method of politics is totally discredited and Trump so reviled, we never have to see his ugly mug and silly hair on TV again. But if Trump quits before November, assuming he HAS a plan haha, it probably is one that both pays Trump back all his money (with profit) AND maintains Trump's reputation. And that TrumpTV gambit sounds like the best possible follow-up for Trump out of this. Again, consider Fox News. Its a $1B enterprise. Trump is regularly bitching about what all Fox has been doing wrong, he often talks about the ratings etc. He likes the TV biz and no doubt Trump thinks he could run a TV News / Reality TV network better than Fox. In reality, when we look at what kind of morons Trump deals with and attracts (Sarah Palin, Dr Ben Carson, Michelle Bachmann, Rick Santorum) his network would probably get a big launch audience and soon fall to tiny viewership, start to be dropped on various cable services, and then go bankrupt.

If TV was like in the 1970s (Take America Back Again) when there were 3 main networks and some local TV then if Trump set up his weird loud angry TV channel, he could have taken 20% or so of the audience. But when average American homes get 100 channels, his style would not play well for long. BUT 35% of Americans think he'd be a good President. If half of those actually like Trump (half tolerate him because they hate Hillary) and if half of those would tune into a TrumpTV network, thats still 9%. If we say half of those would tune in to the top nightly TV news broadcast, with say Hugh Hewitt and Rush Limbaugh as anchors - it could have a nightly Trump feature, where Trump rants on his daily beef for 5-10 minutes at the end of the one hour broadcast - that could get 4.5% TV audience. And thats more than Fox. And Fox is a Billion dollar business.

PS for a Billion dollar business launch, a 50 million dollar investment in its launch promotion event (series) is no big thing. What was Trump's meeting about in Scotland with Rupert Murdoch? Was Trump pitching his TV network idea at Murdoch and asking for Murdoch to come in with partial funding and partner? To release some of Murdoch's cable TV channel branding to Trump so Trump could get rapidly into various cable TV networks?

(ah conspiracy theories are so much fun)

So still hoping to find out some day - what was that phone call with Bill Clinton before Trump started. What was the mysterious meeting Ted Cruz had with Trump a year ago (Cruz now gets to speak suddenly, at the Convention, even though Cruz has not endorsed Trump). Now what about the Rupert Murdoch golf course meeting. We may never know about that one haha, but Trump likes to brag about his high-level contacts so we may suddenly hear about it some day in the future, especially if TrumpTV does materialize and Murdoch has some role in it haha

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Wayne, Winter and cornelius

Wayne - haha yeah. Trump should be able to buy a used Boeing 757 for peanuts and paint it with the same Trump branding and most people wouldn't ever even know he had swapped planes.

Winter - thanks for the great links. I intended to post a link to that Salon article, it came out at almost exactly the same time as this blog did. Its a very good companion piece (and obviously far shorter). But has some of the same concerns as I have.

cornelius - yeah I know. I'm deleting them as I see them. Don't worry, just ignore that person, I'm sure its the same person yes. Style of writing is the same. I have a pretty good guess who it is also among our recently expelled readers (lets not mention names haha, you know who I mean)

Winter - on the fake heart attack. Yeah I hadn't thought it that far, when I considered it as one of possibilities but you point out correctly that a health episode is kind of the safest bet, because no death, so no real crime to investigate. If Trump is looked after by his own doctor, there is no real reason to get any 'forensics' and 'real doctors' to inspect him. The Secret Service is not involved, there was no attempt on the candidate's life. Pretty safe way to do it.

But you mention the Hillary plans to counter. First, I agree, hopefully they have this considered. And I'm pretty sure they have, they tend to over-prepare not under-prepare. And we're not the first to suggest this is a scam. But would it really matter. Trump on a hospital bed is not a viable candidate anymore. If its his VP haha, Newt? Christie? Sessions? Like that is any kind of threat at this point to Hillary's steamroller. No way.

(BUT lets do conspiracy theory again - imagine debate scheduled, and two days before debate Trump has his 'heart attack' and is hospitalized. And Newt is his VP and Newt says, I'll debate Hillary. Say the polls have Johnson at 16% and he says yeah, he wants to debate. Hillary can't really step down without looking like she's a coward and suddenly we get Trump AVOIDING the debate with Hillary and Newt getting to do what he most loves, attack the Clintons, on stage. And Johnson's main lines of attack - I am not Trump - will lose its steam, he - Johnson - would be forced to join Newt more also in attacking Hillary instead.)

Now the hint that Trump might quit AFTER he has become President - that should be a total self-disqualifying statement by itself. I would expect Hillary will try to get the Press to go ask Trump those questions again, and hopes for a more clear statement than the very vague hint he gave - but gosh, if Trump says he won't bother to BE the President he campaigned to be, isn't that reason to disqualify him immediately and not vote for him - even if you like him. You're not going to get him. And that should be yet another attack ad against Trump, waiting to be run, once he has clinched his nomination haha.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

Notes from the trail. First, the Dallas ambush of a dozen police officers. Horrible tragedy, a single shooter with military-style rifle (and an ex reserve soldier). I think this will further force the gun-law legislation to be pushed in Congress (it came right after Paul Ryan announced he will delay the promised vote in the House). I don't foresee actual gun laws to pass this year even in the aftermath of this tragedy but I would expect louder voices from police, that assault-style rifles need controls, the Brady Bill should be reinstated etc. Once Hillary is in with a Democratic Senate a large array of reasonable gun controls (and bullet controls, the old joke by comedian Chris Rock, which by the way has just passed as a local law in California) will be passed. Even if the House doesn't flip, the Republicans will lose so many seats, the NRA will not be able to prevent the Senate law in some version pass the House too, next year. And a liberal-leaning Supreme Court will uphold those laws. The gun madness has gone far too far. It will end in 2017. Sadly, millions of legally bought miliatry-style rifles and various large capacity bullet magazines etc will be in the hands of civilians and unregistered. Still, the solution is to first stop the further proliferation of the problem. (and yeah, this won't be the last mass shooting incident before the election.)

Now to the political angle, did you see Trump? He did a straight-to-camera video message, written speech, read off a teleprompter. He did not write that speech. It was written by a professional speech-writer and was as reasonable as any candidate on either side would have said. It was essentially perfect in tone and language, not significantly different from what Hillary said in a similar video. And this is the SMART thing to do (there is chatter on Twitter that apparently Trump is angry at his handlers who are keeping Trump away from the press and away from Twitter, but that catastrophic speech he did two days ago, that really justifies putting a muzzle on Trump). So this is the correct move, this signals a Trump that is more Presidential. We KNOW he can pull off this act, he is a professional actor (and professional serial con-artist). He doesn't like doing this, but he can do it pretty well. He looked and sounded sincere and that video message had well the balance with the two civilians who just had been killed by the cops in the previous day.

Then Trump jumps on his own story and messes it up. He apparently called the New York Police Department and tried to get to speak to their roll call. They said no (very very smartly). And now Trump is making this a big deal by DENYING it. So rather that the ONLY story in the press is the 'Presidential' new Trump, we also have the sleazebag Trump ALSO in the story, that Trump tried to make political hay out of the mass-murder of cops, and when his home town cops said no, then Trump now denies asking to speak. He truly is a turd. He needs to be flushed.

But Trump's video message - that is part of the charm offensive that Trump is on, to try to convince the Republican party that Trump can be trusted to behave Presidentially, and that the revolt against him should not continue.

Which brings me to the meeting Trump had with Republicans in Congress. Another disaster. He was feuding with participants and ranting and raving. Did not convert anyone who wasn't already onboard the Trump train. BUT we learned an interesting detail from the Trump visit. His full map of 17 states. This is the list that Trump targets, the 17 states where he (now) thinks the battle will be fought:

Arizona
Colorado
Florida
Georgia
Indiana
Iowa
Maine
Michigan
Minnesota
Missouri
Nevada
New Hampshire
North Carolina
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Virginia
Wisconsin

Note first, that one state that was a battleground in 2012 is not even on that list - New Mexico. Trump concedes already now, that he won't have a chance there.

Then the California nonsense. California has now been dropped. This is the list Trump showed the Congressional Republicans so they can assess how serious is Trump, which of their home states can expect Trump visits, etc. Its the real deal. For anyone that Trump would be nearest-to-truth, this is that list. It does include wishful thinking but its nearest to the truth. And California is now lost. We all knew that. There is a poll by Field that just came out three days ago, that says California is THIRTY POINTS for Hillary. The race has gone AWAY from Trump since he tried to campaign in California. The more they saw Trump the more they hated him. Hillary 58% and Trump 28% haha. Yeah, I told you California will never be in play for Trump and his 3 weeks wasted there was a huge huge total stupid waste of effort (but a nice way to run up expenses into Trump properties).

Then New York? Its not on the list. Trump may still try to spin the story in public that he will fight for his home state, but when he spoke to Republicans in Congress, he didn't try to bullshit them that Trump can win in New York State. They are all professional politicians who know local elections, they would never buy it. New York is out.

What about Jersey? New Jersey is not on the list either. Even though it was part of the rust belt strategy and at some point Trump (and Christie) suggested Trump could win NJ. He won't. He knows it. And now.. do you think this realization will improve or decrease Chris Christie's chances of being Veep? If Trump shows this wide a list of states, 17, and it doesn't include New Jersey, I think its a VERY strong sign Christie won't be his VP. So it will be Newt. (And it may be, that Christie himself has cautiously pulled out of the game telling Trump he really doesn't want to do it, he'll do the Chief of Staff bit and campaign with Trump but he doesn't want the VP.. for whatever silly reason. In reality, Christie is looking at 2020. If Trump had behaved like a normal candidate, and pivoted to more normal positions, then being his VP would not be poison for 2020 but if Christie joins this ticket now, he'd be toxic for the rest of his life too).

Now on the states on the list. There are the 'hopeful' (but not realistic) states Maine, Michigan and Minnesota. Those are arguably plausible states for a candidate like Trump. He will not play well there however, once the race really starts, they will be in the 10% range against him and he will eventually drop them. Pennsylvania is more close (in 5% range) and that Trump will cling to as Florida is going so heavily against him.

But look at the NEGATIVE side of the ledger. Obama lost North Carolina and Indiana in 2012 (but won them in 2008). Obama lost Missouri both years (but very narrowly in 2008). Obama lost Arizona and Georgia by lots. Yet Trump admits that these 5 states are vulnerable and he has to fight for them. ROMNEY didn't campaign for ANY of these five. McCain only had to defend North Carolina and Indiana of these 5 states. But Trump now admits, his nasty campaign (and the appeal of Hillary to her demographics obviously) has pulled these states into play. Its not only a 'dream' by Democrats and fantasy by Hillary. Yes, Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina ARE battleground states in 2016. And as I said, if its a 10 point race, Hillary wins all 5 of those. (in a 20 point race Hillary adds states like Texas, Utah, Mississippi, South Dakota and Alaska).

If you remember when there was Trump hysteria about how he'll win in California or New York and I said no he won't. Well, here we have it. Also that when we had early stories coming in that the Democrats are targeting Arizona and Georgia and Missouri, not just North Carolina and the traditional battleground states - I said that was real, those states are in play. They are.

And that I said it won't matter what pundits say or what the Candidate says in public, its where they put their money and the time of the Candidate, only then we will see what they really think are in play. Now we have a real sense of how the REAL Trump Campaign thinks. They know that California (or Oregon or Washington State) or New York (or New Jersey) are not in play. They know this. And very very very dangerously for Republicans, Trump clearly admits, Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina ARE in play and Trump has to go fight to DEFEND those states.

As long as Trump remains the Candidate, of course, then the actual election will be decided in three states - Ohio, Virginia and Pennsylvania. Trump has to win all three and he's behind in all three. Hillary just needs one of them to win the Presidency. Beyond those three, all rest of the election pads Hillary's victory. Expect half of all campaign spending on both sides and half of the campaign appearances to be in those three states. Florida is gone, both sides will spend a lot of time there too, but Florida will not be close in 2016. These three states will be close. Trump cannot win if he wins all three, he needs at least one more state but he cannot win if he loses any one of those three, because Michigan or Minnesota or Wisconsin or Nevada are total pipe dreams. So Trump also has to fight for Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire - he needs to win one of those as well.

So of those states, this is how RCP has the race today:

Arizona - Hillary +0.5%
Colorado - (No RCP average, only one 2016 poll listed shows Hillary +1%)
Florida - Hillary +3.7%
Georgia - (No RCP average because no recent polls, ave of last 4 polls: Trump +4.3%)
Indiana - (No RCP average because no recent polls, ave of only 2 polls: Trump +7.5%)
Iowa - Hillary +8.0%
Maine - (No RCP average, only 2016 poll lists Hillary +7%)
Michigan - (no RCP average because no recent polls, ave of last 4 polls: Hillary +10%)
Minnesota - (no RCP average because no recent polls, ave of 2016 2 polls: Hillary +9)
Missouri - (no RCP average because no recent polls, only 2016 poll: Trump +5%)
Nevada - (no RCP data)
New Hampshire - Hillary +2.7%
North Carolina - Hillary +0.7%
Ohio - Hillary +2.5%
Pennsylvania - Hillary + 2.3%
Virginia - Hillary + 4.0%
Wisconsin - Hillary +7.4%

So the VP selections will come to play to possibly pull some state into play or put it out of play but this race is 3 states. Trump has to win Ohio and Virginia and Pennsylvania (plus one other state) or its over. Hillary is ahead in all three.

From here on, we can expect Trump (who is the one struggling with money and TV ads and surrogates) to cut the map first and to cut it more. If the battle really is also in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina etc, then Trump is really losing big and he has to quit the fantasies of Michigan, Minnesota and Maine soon, because that is now as much a total waste as California dreaming was.

And of the Colorado-Iowa-New Hamsphire set, expect Trump to drop one soon (most likely Iowa)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Wayne Borean


It is all a rather fascinating theory. There is no proof for it. But there is also no proof against it. The theory is consistent with the facts we know.

But it would be such a stupid thing to do. Crime leaves a paper trail. Just ask Microsoft, which after being pummelled by their own emails implemented a new email retention policy of NEVER RETAIN EMAILS.

That the sticker for me. Someone always keeps emails. Always.

And non-disclosure agreements are trumped by criminal investigations. So no matter how tightly Trump attempts to tie the peons into his plan, he can't. Not totally.

To pull a financial scam of this sort right in front of everyone would require a truly Trumpian level of chutzpah. Maybe Trump thinks he can pull it off. He might be able too. There may be a hole in the law which he can squirm through.

I just don't know.

But I've go to find a replacement for popcorn. Before I explode.

Wayne Borean


Left this comment on an earlier post, but people may no longer be watching it.

@Tomi,

Have you ever read anything by Swedish Science Fiction writer Samuel J. Lundwall? This election campaign reminds me of his 1984 book titled:

2018 AD or the King Kong Blues

https://www.amazon.com/2018-D-King-Kong-Blues/dp/0879979267

Wayne Borean


@Everyone,

Read the first paragraph of this. Do not have a mouth full of coffee when you do.

http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2016/07/comey_makes_the_case_for_trump.html

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