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July 25, 2016

Comments

grouch

Uncle Bernie is indispensible. All the votes he received are people whose voices have largely been ignored until this grassroots movement. It's up to him to convince them not to vent their frustration by tossing their votes away.

If they want to continue to have a say in the course the ship takes, they will have to replace some of the hands on the oars with their own.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi grouch

Totally agree, but also it was very clear from early last Autumn, that this would not be a fractured party and Convention. There isn't any kind of break like Cruz who comes to speak and advocates not voting for Trump; or Kasich refusing to speak. Bernie had his run, he has already endorsed and he'll deliver a speech where he clearly says, vote for Hillary. BUT most of his speech will be, of course, on issues he cares about, and I expect Bernie is far more happy to sing about the faults of Trump than the greatness of Hillary haha. So his endorsement part will be short and sweet while he will probably hit Trump far longer.

Now compared to 2008, the Democrats are far more unified now than they were back in 2008 with Obama and Hillary, and in THAT election most Democrats came home to Obama. This Convention, especially after unifying speeches by Bernie, Michelle, Barack and Tim Kaine, will have a very VERY well unified party where most Bernistas will be very happy with their ticket. Of course not all will, that is normal, a few will sit this election on the sidelines and a few will vote for the Green Party (and some, very bizarrely, will indeed vote for Trump, but far less Democrats will vote for Trump than Republicans who will vote for Hillary) but most Bernistas will come and vote for Hillary.

So yeah, you're right but this is not a problem. They do have to do unifying work and ironically the Wikileaks revellations, that now caused Debbie Wasserman-Schultz to resign, are actually 'satisfying' Bernie and his supporters where they had previously felt she gets to keep her job while they 'hated' her. Now they do get rid of her, after all.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

grouch

Is the damn about to break, finally?

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/new-questions-surround-putins-interest-trumps-election

grouch

Tomi:

Oh, wouldn't it be the cherry on top if George Bush the Elder showed up at the DNC. He's the last President from the WWII generation and somehow he 'missed' the RNC. Somebody should invite him.

Winter

Given the recent moves to align the GOP with Putin's interests, I want to suggest a new slogan:

Make America a colony again

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi grouch & Winter

grouch - thanks yeah, CNN has had this on its international feed for a few hours now, its gaining attention. The wikileaks side to me is a side-show, the real story - related - is the Putin funding of Trump. That SHOULD seriously disqualify a candidate (too late for that) and the US press will not do their proper job as the 'fourth branch of government' i they do not fully explore and expose that. I trust they will, its too juicy a story.

On Bush the Elder. Haha, yeah, but no. I don't think quite that level would happen. The Bushes are quite loyal Republicans and that kind of action would be an incredible slap in the face of their party. I don't see it but it would yes, be epic. Bloomberg is already today coming to speak and to endorse Hillary. He has been both a Democrat and Republican and of course the past Mayor of New York City. A very successful businessman worth nearly $50 Billion, he's the 6th richest American and 9th richest person on the planet. I expect Bloomberg to speak to the business competence of Trump and to speak as a New Yorker.

Now, there are that many conservatives and Republicans who have already already said no to Trump, that Hillary should be able to do a big surprise speaker every day to come as a Republican to endorse her. There are several in the national security side, former Bush 1 and 2 administration people, and some women politicians, especially Hispanics. The most obvious person who could speak would be General Colin Powell, the former Secy of State, a moderate Republican who endorsed Obama twice and has been many times mentioned as a possible VP pick for Republicans in recent cycles. There have been a few politicians who have resigned their Republican party affiliation. A person like that would sound like a good candidate, BUT I think, there are probably a few VERY angry 'proper' Republicans, especially among those who won't have to care about an election anymore - retiring or retired Republicans, who think Trump has gone too far - who also happen to know the Clintons and like Hillary, and would be happy to come to endorse her. And it would be pretty good 'optics' for Hillary and the Democrats to get a token Republican to speak every day.

BTW it emerged that the Astronaut woman who spoke at the Republican Convention, was originally supposed to endorse Trump but she decided not to do that, after all. So its a kind of 'slight snub' to Trump. I didn't notice that in her speech but it was discussed in several political articles of that day. Its funny that after all the speakers who refused to come to Cleveland, even among those who finally did show up, some ended up not endorsing Trump. So at least Cruz and the Astronaut woman.

Winter - LOL good one. Yeah I've prepared a few hats on that Trump hat generator we found some months ago. I've been sharing them on Twitter at convenient spots. So Trump's foreign policy? Its of course the Trump Doctrine: Strength Through Stupidity. So hat: Make NATO Go Away. And the effect will be felt in European nations. Hence Make America Great Again, in its original Russian means (hat:) Make Estonia Russian Again. That in turn, means Russia gains while America loses. So Trump's mission is really to (hat:) Make Russia Soviet Again. OH, and then separately, with that awkward near-kiss between Trump and Pence, hat: Make America Gay Again, haha.

Last on those lines of joking. Trump wants to Make America Great Again. Sure, and of course he approaches it like a businessman with any hostile takeover. It means America is bloated, it has to go on a diet. So? Sell off Alaska, back to Russia !!! That kind of slimming is what Trump means, when he wants to Make America Great AGAIN... Besides, Sarah Palin would then be able to see Russia from her house, she'd BE in Russia. Putin, no doubt, would forgive Trump's loans if Trump sold Alaska to Russia on a ridiculously low price haha

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

I said in the previous thread that I expected Planned Parenthood CEO Cecile Richards to speak. She's now on the agenda as published by Politico

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/dnc-2016-schedule-of-events-and-speakers-225617?lo=ap_f2

If you remember ancient Democratic politics, Cecile is the daughter of legendary Texas Governor Ann Richards, whose most famous speech - the keynote of the Democratic Convention - accused Daddy Bush of being born with a silver foot in his mouth. So Cecile is speaking on Day 2.

The agenda seems VERY sparse and still doesn't show Bloomberg for Day 1. Days 2, 3 and 4 are far slimmer in speakers than Day 1, so I expect that they are just tactically withholding speaker names. Many big name Senators, Governors are missing that should be speaking. But yeah, Cecile Richards is a solid B-List speaker, who will deliver a blistering attack on the Republicans and their war on women.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Winter

In Russian:

Сделать Америку великой снова

Winter

Developments, DNC scandal could be an opportunity:

Could a Castro lead the Democratic party next?
http://www.ksat.com/news/politics/could-a-castro-lead-the-democratic-party-next

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

So battlegrounds. Hillary campaign PULLS advertising from Colorado. NOW. July !!! A battleground state? Are they that certain they will lose this mid-sized battleground state, already? No. The opposite. They are SO FAR AHEAD in Colorado, they have now paused TV ads there, with possible return if the state becomes tighter. Gosh, that is rough for Trump. Colorado is already slipping out of Trump's hands. (story at Politico)

Hillary next ad buy is on the air in Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia. Note - they don't even bother with New Mexico and Wisconsin that were also battleground states in 2012 and 2008, that Obama won and Hillary is far ahead in the polling. NC is a state that Obama lost, the rest of those 8 (ie 7 states) are states that Obama won, and these 8 are the 'real' battleground as of now. If we give Virginia to Hillary because of Kaine, and add Colorado as a Hillary win (in addition to Wisconsin and New Mexico) then all Hillary needs is Florida and she's clear. Or several two-state combinations of the list. And to be clear, if Trump keeps North Carolina that Obama lost, plus Trump picks up Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio AND Pennsylvania - Trump still loses if Colorado is now also out of play, and Hillary just holds Florida. Florida, a state of high Hispanic vote, high black vote - and high MILITARY vote.. Expect to hear several Generals for Hillary at the Convention and in coming weeks.

I did not expect to see any battleground state dropped this early. It does mean, as Hillary solidifies those states, assuming she also gets a bounce out of the Convention, that she will shift new resources to Georgia, Arizona, Indiana and Missouri...

Tomi Ahonen :-)

cornelius

I think a surprise speaker could be Trump himself in the form of a collection of video clips showing the most idiotic remarks Trump ever vomited. Kind of like a Best Of (or rather Worst Of). That would make the most powerful anti-Trump case ever.

I am almost sure that Trump will try to troll the Democratic convention. I mean he trolled his own convention, there is no way he won't try again. I hope the TV news stations will refuse to cooperate. Well, Faux News will probably cooperate, they are hopeless.

Taavi

Are you guys sure that those leaked DNC emails won't change the game in any way come November? Or is this Russian job going to turn against russians themselves if/when Hillary gets the White House?

Ofcourse since I'm a finn, I'm all for Hillary haha. As are most people living in the Western Hemisphere but outside America. Especially for a eastern european it's a good time to hope that Hillary would go tough on Russia at least to an extent that is reasonable considering american interests.

Russians are calculating the same thing and pulling out all the stops from their information/cyber warfare playbook. Here's hoping that it won't be enough.

Why am I not so sure that it's going to be a cakewalk for Hillary anymore? That's the other question...

Winter

Obama speaks: Yes we can

Trump speaks: Yes I can

Rather different.

cornelius

@Taavi

I have said a number of times already that there will be no landslide victory for Clinton. I think she'll win by 5%. The reason is that for a lot of people the first choice will be a protest vote (they'll vote for either Stein or Johnson) or stay home. But if Clinton leads Trump by less than 5% then they will vote for Clinton in order to prevent Trump from being elected. The same goes for the case where Trump leads Clinton. But if Clinton leads Trump by 10% or more, then a good part of these Bernie Bros will vote Clinton. So in the end I still think Clinton will win, but it's more like 5%.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi cornelius, Taavi & Winter

cornelius - OMG, I nearly blew my coffee out of my nose, I laughed so hard. Yes, Trump did troll his own Convention. Of course he cannot stand it, that the Democrats will get more TV airtime than Trump gets, and he will say anything he can, like probably that he wants to start a war with Canada, nuke Norway and move the US economy away from the dollar to the Russian rouble or something as wild as that...

I do hope we get a best-of video of Trump's worst hits. BUT that does work almost as well on YouTube, it may not be best use of the Convention time. Its a long-running opportunity to play Trump's best bits for weeks and weeks online and on TV ads, so yeah, I'd love to see it, but probably not best use of the time.

Taavi - (welcome to our little chat group haha) - yeah, it seems there are more leaks to come via Wikileaks. This is only the first salvo. Expect them to try to disrupt the Convention and jump on Hillary's Convention Bounce to limit her polling success etc. I do expect more dirty tricks, not just from the Kremlin, but from Trump. Remember he played really dirty against Cruz and earlier against his other rivals. Its not going to be easy - BUT Hillary holds ALL the cards, that has never happened in US elections before. I do expect it to tilt ever more into Hillary's favor after the Conventions are over. We should have a measure of the 'reality' of the race in the first week of August. Right now the polling is not reliable because of the VP selections and the Conventions. Hillary should get a big bounce out of her Convention if Trump was able to get a modest bounce out of his, with all the misery that Convention consisted of...

Winter - gr8 point, hadn't thought of that. Yes WE can, or Yes I can. Trump is the typical strongman, a banana republic dictator..

cornelius - yes, and we recognize that forecast. Its VERY plausible, yes. We will see which way it starts to go, around the end of August. I think that the early signs we saw in late June, of the race starting to go to a 10 point race for Hillary (unprecedented in modern polling era, before the Conventions) and the sudden panic by the Democrats, that Trump might quit too early haha.. and they pulled back. So the race was back to a few points before the Conventions and now with a modest bounce, about even. Then we get Hillary's Veep bounce and Convention bounce, should be AT LEAST that 5% race you expect for November, around first week of August (could be a lot more) and then if it gets to say 10% by end of August, then its pretty well over. Trump will be crushed in the debates - meaning 15% and then all wheels come off, and its a 20 point huge massive gigantic landslide by November 8, even with a four-way race.

BUT you are correct, that scenario you paint is equally plausible, we'll have a better view after this week.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Winter

@Tomi
My suspicion:

Trump will not debate and will not release his tax forms. There are only downsides to that. If he does, it will help Hillary, if he doesn"t, that will help her too.

Those who support him will accept any excuse, as they do not want to see Hillary anyway.

grouch

Why are none of the talking heads on tv even considering the possibility that some of those "Bernie supporters" are trolls for Trump/Putin? There's a pretty obvious astroturfing going on online; boots on the convention floor wouldn't cost that much more.

sgtrock

@grouch;

That's... an interesting possibility. It would be easy to get people into a Sanders meeting. Getting onto the convention floor, though, would be a lot tougher. We are talking about registered Democrats who were chosen by local party affiliates to represent their local interests. Can't imagine many of those would be willing to do dirty work for Trump/Putin.

cornelius

Question: what's better? The runner-up calling for disunity and being booed (Cruz) or the runner up calling for unity and being booed (Sanders)? It seems to me that RNC delegates are of higher quality compared to DNC delegates.

Eduardo M

I wondering about the sane Republicans leaders who have endorsed Trump, but are realizing that his foreign policy ideas would be suicidal for the US. They must be debating in their minds whether to withdraw their support.

I am guessing what they do will depend to a great extent about what they think will happen in November. If they think Trump will win, then they would want to keep supporting him, since he would be in a position as president to punish them quite harshly. On the other hand, if they think Trump is going to lose badly, then it would make sense to get out now, and later be seen by many as heros.

If they think it would be close, then they might think it would be good to work to try to defeat Trump in order to avoid a disaster for the US, but still be torn.

Well, those are some thoughts. I am wondering what other people here think.

The comments to this entry are closed.

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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