Speaker Preview: Democratic Convention 2016: Perhaps greatest array of great political speakers in the same place, and at their prime (Updated: with speech reviews)

I want to do a preview of the Democratic Convention because this is one for the ages. The Democratic Convention of 2016 starts in some hours. The Republican Convention ended with most top talent skipping the event, and many speeches delivered by C-List politicians and D-List celebrities (When you have to get Scott Baio to step in to cover for Gary Busey who couldn't fill in for Chuck Norris to replace Clint Eastwood to talk to an empty chair - that is bottom-of-the-barrel indeed). The Republican Convention was the first not to have a past President speak to his party's Convention (the Democrats will have at least two, probably three if Jimmy Carter does also a greeting). Trump's speech was the darkest, nastiest in at least our lifetimes. And the time interval between the two Conventions is only three days. The contrast could not be greater.


UPDATE - This blog has been updated now to include not just my previews as originally written, but also my actual speech REVIEWS immediately after delivered. See below


But the quality of the Democratic speakers is phenomenal. We have first off, two of the three best political speakers of our lifetimes still alive and speaking at this Convention (and still in their primes, although Bill Clinton is probably nearing the end of that time span). I mean Bill Clinton, Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama as the three best political speakers of our lifetime. Reagan the Republican has long since died and they don't have currently any real orator to replace him. The Democratic side has two, Bill who was the best on that side of the aisle, and then came the once-in-a-century super public speaker, Obama, perhaps best orator ever (bearing in mind, we have to consider people like Winston Churchill then to compare). And Obama is obviously at his prime. For a Convention to have these two magnificent public speakers both deliver a major speech, that alone is worth watching the event. Except that is not all. This is such a rich, deep bench of superbly talented speakers, I want to do my preview. Lets start with Mr Hands

I don't get Goofy McGoofface. Uncle Bernie doing that Music Conductor thing with his hands, like he was conducting the Democratic Symphony Orchestra. But he is truly beloved by the very left of the Democratic party and the youth vote. This means, that whatever goofy weird speech he delivers, he will get a roaring stong response from the partisan crowd. Nearly half of the Democrats votes for Bernie, it will reflect in the room, they will love him. So we will get his weird hands and his .. interesting .. rhetorical stylings. Expect Bernie to be heavily against Trump in his speech and push the very progressive agenda. He will of course 'endorse' and say he will vote for Hillary, he won't be pulling a Ted Cruz, but still, if you want rhetorically a great speech, no Bernie won't be quite that. But he will get enormously warm response from the crowd Monday night. .

But right on Day 1, we get a superstar. A future megastar. A potential future President of the USA, giving her best speech to date. Its of course the most beloved politician in the USA, whose words were already heard last week to roaring approval by the Republicans. Its FLOTUS. Michelle Obama the First Lady of the United States. When Michelle first did this now-obligatory spousal speech in 2008 at the Convention, it took a lot of people by surprise, was highly praised (and very good). She was nervous that we could hear in her voice but she delivered magnificently. Yes, indeed that Melania Trump so liked that speech, she singled out parts of it to her speech-writing staff, who then managed to plagiarize Michelle Obama without 'noticing' haha (incompetent fools, shoulda been fired by Trump, on the spot). So lets fast-forward 4 years, to 2012. Now Michelle had been FLOTUS for four years, spoken at counless events, knew her hubby would be in full swing and deliver a barnburner, so Michelle plotted her cunning ploy and practised and wrote and re-wrote, a masterpiece, delivered with poise and style. She knocked that one out of the park. It was not 'only' the best speech ever by a Presidential spouce, it was arguably the best speech of the 2012 Convention, of any 'real' politician. Is she competitive? You betcha! Does she know Barack can raise his game and deliver monster speeches? Sure. Is she as smart and as good and as capable - yes! And will Michelle put in her best effort, now as her last speech to her party as FLOTUS? This will be epic Michelle. It will have your hairs stand on edge. She will have shivers down your spine. She won't bother with attacking Trump, that is for mere mortals to do. She will take a speech to soar, to talk to the better angels of Americans, of where the nation can go, and indeed needs to go. What it is to be an American. It will sound like the speech of a woman who intends to become the first black female President some day.. Yes. Expect a barnburner from Michelle. She will try to beat the speech that Barack will deliver. Its like being a ranked tennis player and going against the one who is ranked number 1. Michelle, a magnificent speaker, will raise her game. Do not miss this speech.

Day 2 gives us the Big Dog. Bill Clinton was not given a big speech slot for the 2000 Convention for Al Gore, and neither for the 2008 Convention with Obama, but Obama did use Bill finally in 2012, and boy did he deliver. In an economy election where Businessman Mitt Romney was the opponent, the best Democrat to argue the economy, was finally let loose, and the Big Dog came in and stole the show. They thought he's too old, he didn't have it anymore but Bill Clinton, if he knows something, he knows how to deliver a speech to Democratic audiences. In some way it was his 'revenge' speech, that Al Gore should have let Bill do, to show, come on, his Presidency was a good time for America. After the W Bush years, Bill now was even more eager to show, hey, they do it wrong, we do it right, and here is why. This message is Bill's bread-and-butter. I am certain it will be his remit again, to do a new version of that speech. Show how Reagan-Bush 1 with their voodoo economics messed America, he, Bill, fixed it, Bush 2-Cheney then ran America into another ditch, and its taken Obama 8 years to fix that mess. This is a good argument that Bill makes the best, against another 'businessman' and alleged Billionaire even, Donald Trump. If you want red meat on the economy argument against Trump, here will be plenty of that, but also, plenty of praise for Obama, and then of course promising how Hillary will now do better and take this matter to a more positive USA. If you can ask any speaker to deliver this message, there is nobody - on either side - who can do it better than Bill Clinton. He will be the star of Day 2. Bill will bring his A-Game, partly because he knows Obama is speaking on the next day, and they of course feel competitive about who gets the best reviews. Bill may be on his very end of his peak speaking period, but I think this will still be one for the ages.

Wednesday gets us Joe Biden. Who cares. But Wednesday is Obama's day. He has three missions he wants to accomplish. He wants to close the argument, that his Presidency is the best of the recent history, that he delivered to an unbelievable degree, and therefore the Democrats in the room - and Americans watching at home, should be happy of all that his incredible legacy achieved. It is a kind of closure on his promise. Yes We Can. I would hope he actually revisited that chant, with something like 'Yes We Did' but Obama hated that chant back in 2008 thinking it was corny (it was a rhetorical tool that David Axelrod came up with). The last time Obama used that Yes We Can chant, was only briefly in his victory speech (he had stopped using it on the stump many weeks prior). It would probably break decibel levels if Obama came back to that chant one more time. But yes, back to reality (he hated it, he won't be doing that). But his second mission is to destroy Trump. The animosity is personal. Trump was leading the birtherism conspiracy theory and kept that bullshit alive forever. Obama already once skewered Trump with it, so badly Trump still bears a grudge (the White House Correspondents Dinner) and as Trump and the Republicans like to play games of 'its all Obama's fault' - this is his chance to strike back. Strike back at the biggest stage - where Obama speaks SECOND. Trump will never get a big stage again to respond to the attacks that Obama now gets to make. It will be epic. And my guess is, he does it with viciously funny jokes to diminish Trump and expose him as the hypocrite Trump so clearly is. The third thing Obama wants to achieve is a strongly unified party to go elect Hillary. Obama really needs this, because if Hillary loses, Obama's legacy will be dismantled. Once Hillary and Obama had their meeting where Hillary told Obama she'd like him to campaign with her (Al Gore didn't want Bill Clinton's support and John McCain didn't want W Bush's support; this is by no means automatic) - the two have been plotting on how to do this the best. This is Obama's 'swan song' speech that his Presidency will be remembered for. He will knock this so far out of the park, it may land in another country haha... Obama has been bored with trying to run a country that the Republicans block him at ever stage, and for many weeks, even months, leading up to this moment, Obama has looked forward to THIS speech. It will be one that people will study for decades to come, as a perfect speech. In the class of Churchill's Never Surrender or Martin Luther King's I Have A Dream or Reagan's Shining City on a Hill or indeed, Obama's own No Red States, No Blue States speech from the 2004 Convention. This will be the best speech Obama has written. His speech-writers will work very hard on it, but Obama will take an exceptionally strong role himself in authoring it and finalizing it. It will also be the best delivery he has for a speech (his 2012 Convention speech was flat, overshadowed by both Bill Clinton and Michelle Obama). If you have the best large-audience public speech type speaker at his prime, delivering a speech about his Presidency at its end, to a partisan crowd, and who has a huge motivation to make this his best, it will be .. difficult to describe. It will be awesome. After last week of despair and hate and division, this will be the most uplifting speech by Obama since he was running in 2008. I would put this as the front-runner for best speech of the Convention.

Now on Wednesday we also get Tim Kaine's speech. The new Vice President's (ok, ok, nominee) acceptance speech will be a far refined version of what he did in the speech we heard in Miami on Saturday with Hillary. He will do a part in Spanish of course. He will lay a path to the future of the administration with Hillary, what kind of things they want to achieve. And it will attack Trump too, drawing contrasts especially around the discrimination of blacks by Trump etc. Kaine is no Barack Obama or Bill Clinton but he is no Al Gore or John Kerry either. This will be a very powerful speech - written by the best speech-writers the Democrats have - on a personal biography that is almost perfectly suited for a Democratic candidate.  It will be powerful and emotional and will bring tears to the eyes of the audience. Kaine knows he is speaking after Obama (his speech is the last of the day, of course) and that will make him raise his game to the challenge. We've seen Kaine before, the 'boring Kaine' when he did his own speech-writing and didn't have pro coaching. Then we saw what professional help can do, if you are willing to put in the effort - we saw that on Saturday. This speech will be very very big pressure on Tim Kaine, but he will also practise practise practise, and he will deliver a powerful speech, very very well. More than anything, he will connect with that audience. If you want 'cum bay yah' gosh, the Democrats will be son incredibly united on Wednesday night after that speech - and ready to and fight, you won't believe.

On Thursday we get yet another surprisingly strong speech. Chelsea Clinton sees how Ivanka and the various Trump kids were received for their speeches. She also has the genes of her dad. And she has the poise of hanging around Democrats for three decades. Now she gets to do a major primetime speech to introduce her mom for President. This speech will get every single bit of pro advice by the Clintons, they all want her to be the best speaker of the week, and she will get all  the best help from the speech-writing team, and she of course will have seen her mom and dad practise THEIR speeches as she prepares. Chelsea clearly wants a political career for herself and this is the launch pad, nothing could be a bigger night that speaking on the last day of this epic Convention of superstar speakers. She will be more poised, more personal, more factual, more convincing than the Trump kids. Chelsea will be cheered as, at least, the best of the 'kids table' speakers, that much is certain. But if you want a dark horse. She could even steal the show. I am certain when she finishes her speech the Convention hall will on its feet cheering and refusing to stop clapping and there will not be a dry eye in the room. And her proud mom will wait and wait, let Chelsea take all the applause thats coming, because Hillary knows, the TV networks will not cut out of her acceptance speech anyway. She will just wait and smile. Proud mom.

What of Hillary? She ends the Convention with her acceptance speech followed by the ballons dropping  There is plenty of speculation that Hillary will be overshadowed by her Convention and the incredible speaker lineup that she has. Well... one thing we know about Hillary Clinton is that she fights. She prepares. And a great speech is partly a great speaker, it is also great speech-writing, and its practise. What she lacks in pure raw talent, Hillary can make up a lot with hard work. She knows this is the battle of Bill vs Barack. She knows even her daughter is raising her game, and Hillary knows as a competitive wife, that Michelle wants to beat her husband on this stage. Hillary knows how much the others are raising their games. She will do so too. It will be, by far, the best speech Hillary Clinton has ever delivered. It will be deeply personal, emotional, uplifting, inspirational, with plenty of issues and facts and examples. It may not mention Trump at all, or only touch upon him briefly. It will be Hillary rising above the vitriol of the previous week and it will be a speech all Democrats can rally around, to want to join her. It will also talk to moderates and Independents, showing she has ideas to help heal, not divide, the country. It will have humor. I cannot imagine it reaches to the level of Obama or Bill (or Michelle) at their peaks, but.. she will not be overshadowed in her own Convention. It will be a powerful speech delivered with perfection. She will - in typically Hillary Clintonish way - over-prepare. She will practise this speech probably 50 times where most other pro speakers might practise this type of speech 20 times.

Which leaves me to the real dark horse. One more superstar A-List speaker is missing from my analysis. Elizabeth Warren. She speaks on Day 1 and this is the next 'world's best speaker' in politics. If you've seen the progression of her public speaking, she's gone from good, to great to MAGNIFICENT. She really knows how to get under Trump's skin, and she seems to relish this role, and Trump is clearly freaking out whenever Warren talks about him .As she speaks on the first day, I'm pretty sure she was given the job to skewer Trump. The single best attack speech, possibly totally dedicated to only Trump (in the way Chris Christie's speech at the Republican Convention was purely an anti-Hillary speech). This will be the purest of red meat to the audience of Democrats. It comes on the same day as Bernie speaks, so the emotions will be even more about 'hating Trump' than strictly loving Hillary. Elizabeth Warren gets to do the ultimate attack speech and on the biggest stage she has ever had. And she clearly hates Trump. She will love doing this. And now my opinion as a speech coach. Elizabeth is truly rare, exceptionally brilliant public speaker. The nearest thing to Barack Obama on the bench of either side. She may be the next best speaker in the world. She has only improved and she now knows, she is at her first Wimbledon finals, and she has to up her game. This speech will be one for the ages. If the best speech of this Convention of Great Speeches will not be Obama's then my dark horse pick, is in that case, it will be that Warren happens to actually do even better than Obama - by a hair. To be far, her job will be a bit easier, if she only has to attack the most ludicrous and flawed candidate in history haha. But still. Expect her speech to make you howl in laughter and cry and scream. Do. Not. Miss. Elizabeth. Warren.

My handicapping? I would guess the best spearkers of these nine will be in this ranking 1 Barack Obama, 2 Elizabeth Warren, 3 Michelle Obama, 4 Bill Clinton, 5 Chelsea Clinton, 6 Hillary Clinton, 7 Tim Kaine, 8 Joe Biden, 9 Bernie Sanders.

Now stock up on the popcorn and your favorite beverage. Let the World Series of Public Speaking begin..


UPDATE - 30 July - Actual Speaker Reviews 

I wrote the actual speech reviews, immediately when the speech was finished, and wrote those into the comments. I received requests to put them into one place, so I put them here now, as a collection. I am posting the speech reviews in chronological sequence as they were presented. I am adding Cory Booker which was not listed in the above but his was that good. These are verbatim from how I posted them into the comments.

Cory Booker... that coulda been the keynote. Not just a far better speech than anything from the Republicans, its one of the best speeches of ANY convention. Very inpirational, very VERY well written. Delivered a bit too fast, he's still young. But it was funny to see how it drew Bill Clinton to the edge of his seat.. a great speaker really knows another great speech and he was into it haha.

Wow... that was FLOTUS. The First Lady speech for all to remember forever. So far best of the Convention. What I did not expect was how strongly she argued for Hillary and attacked Trump. Wow. So powerful, emotional, inspirational.

Elizabeth Warren - strong speech but I'll put Cory ahead of her. I think her delivery was off by the booing that she received several times. She did suffer following the emotion of Michelle. But also as a speech, it wasn't quite in Cory's class. So my grading - Michelle best, Cory second & Warren third.

Bernie... very good from Bernie. Yes out of these four speakers Bernie was .. fourth, but still a good speech. He had like Cory and Warren, some audience hostility but he mostly won them over and finished strong. I think this speech goes far into helping unite the party. The very end, nice to go fully Hillary endorsement. Compare this to Ted Cruz and his speech haha..

Most of the speakers had to speak through boos and various protest calls including Cory Booker, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. The one who didn't get the boos, was Michelle Obama. And she made a very strong personal endorsement of Hillary, not just professionally competent, but as her personal friend. And the room was respectful of the First Lady. Obviously a brilliantly written speech, delivered very powerfully, she also had the room mesmerized, so she also got away with it by the time her speech got to the Hillary parts.

The Big Dog still has it. Wow cool story-speech. Held the room captivated, and gave angles and views to Hillary that nobody else obviously can do. I didn't expect it to be the bio speech (though that would be Chelsea although she may also do so). I expected the economy speech, but no, this was a love story about Hillary that I am sure helps her overcome some of her negatives (as this whole day is intended to do). Great speech. Not quite as good as Michelle yesterday, but delivered in still pitch-perfect Bill Clinton style, folksy, charming, funny. Touching people.

Joe Biden. He came loaded for bear. This was his swan-song speech after a very long career in politics and very widely known and popular politician. And unusually for Joe, he was very disciplined to deliver a very very well written and structured speech. Did an excellent detailed endorsement of Hillary first, but then a really powerful attack against Trump. And he targeted the lower middle class blue-collar voters in a way, in which he is most believable of all the major speakers. He is (lower) middle class by his background. Very strong (surprisingly strong) speech and nice way for Joe to go. I'd rank this ahead of Bernie but behind Warren.

Tim Kaine. Clearly very nervous, rushed through the first half of the speech, but he then settled down when he had some of the interactive interplay with the audience. I think this speech was well better than how it was delivered but he finished stronger than he started. I think it did a lot to introduce Kaine to the nation and get the still-somewhat-divide party to further unite. What he did very well, was the spontaneous parts especially with the Feel the Burn chant that erupted and he joined. I think he could have done better and in the coming months he will get far more confident and familiar with the speaking. This was mostly nerves that caused him to do just a mediocre performance but he still finished well. I'd rate this between Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders.

Ok, then wow, Obama. Was this the perfect speech, not quite. Was it Obama's best speech, not quite, but may be in his Top 3, and certainly in his Top 5. It was the first time - and only time - he would ever do this, a 'continuation speech' to pass the torch from him to his successor - and as such, it is by far the best such speech ever done. Was it the best speech of the Convention, not quite. Just a little too long, I give the tighter more perfect pure speech and delivery to Michelle but this is a VERY close second. What this speech did, however, was hit all three points I said he'd have to do - out of the park - BUT... he added a fourth part (which contributed to its length and the construction having that 'interruption point'.

The three things I said he'd have to do (or should do, not necessarily 'have to') was to secure his legacy, to attack Trump AND to endorse Hillary. Obama did these three all superbly, better on each of them than any other individual speech alone, excepting for Bill Clinton's long love letter to his wife. The attacks on Trump were particularly devastating because of how Obama constructed them through his theme of pure patriotism, a quest for a better more inclusive and more fair nation. He hit a perfectly devastating point with 'we don't want to be ruled' and then.. as the one last riff on the line everyone in the room was dying to get to yell once more - his variation on the theme was 'not Yes I can, but yes WE can'. If Obama had ended the speech there, about 30 minutes in, this would have been perfection as a speech on those three themes.

Yet Obama went further. He knew he was the Rolling Stones playing to adoring fans, and they will never yell him to get off the stage, if after 'I Can't Get No, Satisfaction' he decides to also play Brown Sugar. And no TV network will turn the cameras off the President doing 40 minutes instead of 30 minutes, even as they were more than half an hour late into the broadcast schedule time. After all, Trump went over by more and spoke for an hour and 15 minutes. So Obama 'cheated' a bit.

He threw an additional piece. A magnificent part, that fit perfectly into his themes and woven into the thread that worked so well also into the continuation topic. He did a motivational speech element to the end - that you have to join and fight. That it was you - the Democrats in that room, and the voters back home, who had given Obama his inspiration, and he hoped that he had managed to inspire them at times (huge huge huge response of course). And then that he wanted them to go do the same for Hillary. while this spoils in some way the perfection of the speech starting to have too many themes, it might detract from a 'perfect' speech a tiny fraction of a score. So little it might fall from a perfect 10.0 to a 9.7 or so.. A tiny price to pay - for the huge payoff. This party - those at the Convention - are totally unified, and totally motivated, and hungry and eager to go fight for Hillary.

So let me put it this way. Bill Clinton showed a clever way to weave story-telling into the 'spouce's speech'. Michelle Obama showed a perfect political upbeat, patriotic speech of hope and fight. But Barack Obama's speech is the PROTOTYPE perfect continuation speech for those politicians who may face this situation. This is EXACTLY how you do it.

What a powerful, emotional and rational, hopeful yet practical speech. How brilliantly woven in with the themes, the quotations, the linkages to the audience (he made a point to get to touch Bill Clinton, Bernie, Tim Kaine and Joe Biden in the speech - including of course the obvious two ladies he would have to, Michelle and Hillary). I said I'd love to see Yes We Can used in some way, and he did, at just the hint - its like Prince might do at times in his concerts, playing just a riff of a given hit song, without getting into that song because he had so many other songs he needed to get to, but enough that fans would get a bit of a taste of something they all love.

The demolition of Trump. Yes, Michael Bloomberg did a devastating attack on him before, as did Elizabeth Warren, as did Al Franken, as did Tim Kaine, as did Joe Biden. But Obama. Of course he would do it via patriotism and the core of what it takes to be an American. In the end the way Hillary then walked onto the stage, beaming, and the two hugging each other, broad smiles, that was the perfect end to his farewell speech. Handing the torch. And the repeated screams from the room all throughout the speech of 'four more years' were very sincere. As the CNN commentators mentioned, they will be missing this President.

Not Obama's absolute best speech but so close, it doesn't matter. Not the Convention's best speech but so close, it doesn't matter. And better than anything at the Republican Convention of 2016 or the Republican Convention of 2012 and better even than anything in the 2012 Democratic Convention. One for the ages. One of Obama's best speeches ever.

Chelsea. Purely a family member's endorsement speech. Good speech, emotional, and as she's lived in the public limelight of course the audience could identify well with that story. The ending on the grandmother's message was nice touch. Very poised speech, excellent delivery, clearly a pro speaker's daughter who was superbly prepared and coached for this. She could have done more (or at least, it left the impression that she had this easily covered and could have done more, I don't mean she was just mailing it in). Chelsea felt like she was talking to her family or group that she knew intimately well and wasn't the least bit intimidated or nervous. Solid job. Not a superb speech but very good. I'd rank it between Joe Biden and Tim Kaine.

Then Hillary's acceptance speech. A good start that grew very strong towards its end. She was in superb mood, upbeat and smiling. Threw a nice amount of jokes and kept smiling. A remarkable contrast to Trump's dark speech and well written to make fun of him and his speech. Plenty of policy wonk elements of what she'd do, but the powerful parts of a pro speech where she reached out to all best speakers and her main partners out of the speech, including two mentions of both Bernie and Tim Kaine.

Very good practical speech keeping it positive. Nice historical references, good touches to Republicans, and good reaches to Bernistas. Very well delivered, clearly Hillary's best speech ever. She had practised this well, it was written very well, it brought in her main themes and had lots of references also to other speakers and visitors to the Convention. As a vehicle for reaching voters and supporters, this was VERY well constructed to be the culmination of a great 4 day Convention, and to reach out to the various groups and constituencies that form the Democratic tent. I'd rank this speech below Bill Clinton's (but not by much) and ahead of Elizabeth Warren's.

So if I remember correctly (of how I graded them) the best speech was Michelle Obama, then Barack Obama, then Cory Booker, then Bill Clinton, then Hillary Clinton, Elizabeth Warren, then Joe Biden, then Chelsea Clinton, then Tim Kaine, then Bernie Sanders.

Comments

[grouch]

Uncle Bernie is indispensible. All the votes he received are people whose voices have largely been ignored until this grassroots movement. It's up to him to convince them not to vent their frustration by tossing their votes away.

If they want to continue to have a say in the course the ship takes, they will have to replace some of the hands on the oars with their own.

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi grouch

Totally agree, but also it was very clear from early last Autumn, that this would not be a fractured party and Convention. There isn't any kind of break like Cruz who comes to speak and advocates not voting for Trump; or Kasich refusing to speak. Bernie had his run, he has already endorsed and he'll deliver a speech where he clearly says, vote for Hillary. BUT most of his speech will be, of course, on issues he cares about, and I expect Bernie is far more happy to sing about the faults of Trump than the greatness of Hillary haha. So his endorsement part will be short and sweet while he will probably hit Trump far longer.

Now compared to 2008, the Democrats are far more unified now than they were back in 2008 with Obama and Hillary, and in THAT election most Democrats came home to Obama. This Convention, especially after unifying speeches by Bernie, Michelle, Barack and Tim Kaine, will have a very VERY well unified party where most Bernistas will be very happy with their ticket. Of course not all will, that is normal, a few will sit this election on the sidelines and a few will vote for the Green Party (and some, very bizarrely, will indeed vote for Trump, but far less Democrats will vote for Trump than Republicans who will vote for Hillary) but most Bernistas will come and vote for Hillary.

So yeah, you're right but this is not a problem. They do have to do unifying work and ironically the Wikileaks revellations, that now caused Debbie Wasserman-Schultz to resign, are actually 'satisfying' Bernie and his supporters where they had previously felt she gets to keep her job while they 'hated' her. Now they do get rid of her, after all.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[grouch]

Is the damn about to break, finally?

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/new-questions-surround-putins-interest-trumps-election

[grouch]

Tomi:

Oh, wouldn't it be the cherry on top if George Bush the Elder showed up at the DNC. He's the last President from the WWII generation and somehow he 'missed' the RNC. Somebody should invite him.

[Winter]

Given the recent moves to align the GOP with Putin's interests, I want to suggest a new slogan:

Make America a colony again

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi grouch & Winter

grouch - thanks yeah, CNN has had this on its international feed for a few hours now, its gaining attention. The wikileaks side to me is a side-show, the real story - related - is the Putin funding of Trump. That SHOULD seriously disqualify a candidate (too late for that) and the US press will not do their proper job as the 'fourth branch of government' i they do not fully explore and expose that. I trust they will, its too juicy a story.

On Bush the Elder. Haha, yeah, but no. I don't think quite that level would happen. The Bushes are quite loyal Republicans and that kind of action would be an incredible slap in the face of their party. I don't see it but it would yes, be epic. Bloomberg is already today coming to speak and to endorse Hillary. He has been both a Democrat and Republican and of course the past Mayor of New York City. A very successful businessman worth nearly $50 Billion, he's the 6th richest American and 9th richest person on the planet. I expect Bloomberg to speak to the business competence of Trump and to speak as a New Yorker.

Now, there are that many conservatives and Republicans who have already already said no to Trump, that Hillary should be able to do a big surprise speaker every day to come as a Republican to endorse her. There are several in the national security side, former Bush 1 and 2 administration people, and some women politicians, especially Hispanics. The most obvious person who could speak would be General Colin Powell, the former Secy of State, a moderate Republican who endorsed Obama twice and has been many times mentioned as a possible VP pick for Republicans in recent cycles. There have been a few politicians who have resigned their Republican party affiliation. A person like that would sound like a good candidate, BUT I think, there are probably a few VERY angry 'proper' Republicans, especially among those who won't have to care about an election anymore - retiring or retired Republicans, who think Trump has gone too far - who also happen to know the Clintons and like Hillary, and would be happy to come to endorse her. And it would be pretty good 'optics' for Hillary and the Democrats to get a token Republican to speak every day.

BTW it emerged that the Astronaut woman who spoke at the Republican Convention, was originally supposed to endorse Trump but she decided not to do that, after all. So its a kind of 'slight snub' to Trump. I didn't notice that in her speech but it was discussed in several political articles of that day. Its funny that after all the speakers who refused to come to Cleveland, even among those who finally did show up, some ended up not endorsing Trump. So at least Cruz and the Astronaut woman.

Winter - LOL good one. Yeah I've prepared a few hats on that Trump hat generator we found some months ago. I've been sharing them on Twitter at convenient spots. So Trump's foreign policy? Its of course the Trump Doctrine: Strength Through Stupidity. So hat: Make NATO Go Away. And the effect will be felt in European nations. Hence Make America Great Again, in its original Russian means (hat:) Make Estonia Russian Again. That in turn, means Russia gains while America loses. So Trump's mission is really to (hat:) Make Russia Soviet Again. OH, and then separately, with that awkward near-kiss between Trump and Pence, hat: Make America Gay Again, haha.

Last on those lines of joking. Trump wants to Make America Great Again. Sure, and of course he approaches it like a businessman with any hostile takeover. It means America is bloated, it has to go on a diet. So? Sell off Alaska, back to Russia !!! That kind of slimming is what Trump means, when he wants to Make America Great AGAIN... Besides, Sarah Palin would then be able to see Russia from her house, she'd BE in Russia. Putin, no doubt, would forgive Trump's loans if Trump sold Alaska to Russia on a ridiculously low price haha

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi everybody

I said in the previous thread that I expected Planned Parenthood CEO Cecile Richards to speak. She's now on the agenda as published by Politico

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/dnc-2016-schedule-of-events-and-speakers-225617?lo=ap_f2

If you remember ancient Democratic politics, Cecile is the daughter of legendary Texas Governor Ann Richards, whose most famous speech - the keynote of the Democratic Convention - accused Daddy Bush of being born with a silver foot in his mouth. So Cecile is speaking on Day 2.

The agenda seems VERY sparse and still doesn't show Bloomberg for Day 1. Days 2, 3 and 4 are far slimmer in speakers than Day 1, so I expect that they are just tactically withholding speaker names. Many big name Senators, Governors are missing that should be speaking. But yeah, Cecile Richards is a solid B-List speaker, who will deliver a blistering attack on the Republicans and their war on women.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Winter]

In Russian:

Сделать Америку великой снова

[Winter]

Developments, DNC scandal could be an opportunity:

Could a Castro lead the Democratic party next?
http://www.ksat.com/news/politics/could-a-castro-lead-the-democratic-party-next

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi everybody

So battlegrounds. Hillary campaign PULLS advertising from Colorado. NOW. July !!! A battleground state? Are they that certain they will lose this mid-sized battleground state, already? No. The opposite. They are SO FAR AHEAD in Colorado, they have now paused TV ads there, with possible return if the state becomes tighter. Gosh, that is rough for Trump. Colorado is already slipping out of Trump's hands. (story at Politico)

Hillary next ad buy is on the air in Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia. Note - they don't even bother with New Mexico and Wisconsin that were also battleground states in 2012 and 2008, that Obama won and Hillary is far ahead in the polling. NC is a state that Obama lost, the rest of those 8 (ie 7 states) are states that Obama won, and these 8 are the 'real' battleground as of now. If we give Virginia to Hillary because of Kaine, and add Colorado as a Hillary win (in addition to Wisconsin and New Mexico) then all Hillary needs is Florida and she's clear. Or several two-state combinations of the list. And to be clear, if Trump keeps North Carolina that Obama lost, plus Trump picks up Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio AND Pennsylvania - Trump still loses if Colorado is now also out of play, and Hillary just holds Florida. Florida, a state of high Hispanic vote, high black vote - and high MILITARY vote.. Expect to hear several Generals for Hillary at the Convention and in coming weeks.

I did not expect to see any battleground state dropped this early. It does mean, as Hillary solidifies those states, assuming she also gets a bounce out of the Convention, that she will shift new resources to Georgia, Arizona, Indiana and Missouri...

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[cornelius]

I think a surprise speaker could be Trump himself in the form of a collection of video clips showing the most idiotic remarks Trump ever vomited. Kind of like a Best Of (or rather Worst Of). That would make the most powerful anti-Trump case ever.

I am almost sure that Trump will try to troll the Democratic convention. I mean he trolled his own convention, there is no way he won't try again. I hope the TV news stations will refuse to cooperate. Well, Faux News will probably cooperate, they are hopeless.

[Taavi]

Are you guys sure that those leaked DNC emails won't change the game in any way come November? Or is this Russian job going to turn against russians themselves if/when Hillary gets the White House?

Ofcourse since I'm a finn, I'm all for Hillary haha. As are most people living in the Western Hemisphere but outside America. Especially for a eastern european it's a good time to hope that Hillary would go tough on Russia at least to an extent that is reasonable considering american interests.

Russians are calculating the same thing and pulling out all the stops from their information/cyber warfare playbook. Here's hoping that it won't be enough.

Why am I not so sure that it's going to be a cakewalk for Hillary anymore? That's the other question...

[Winter]

Obama speaks: Yes we can

Trump speaks: Yes I can

Rather different.

[cornelius]

@Taavi

I have said a number of times already that there will be no landslide victory for Clinton. I think she'll win by 5%. The reason is that for a lot of people the first choice will be a protest vote (they'll vote for either Stein or Johnson) or stay home. But if Clinton leads Trump by less than 5% then they will vote for Clinton in order to prevent Trump from being elected. The same goes for the case where Trump leads Clinton. But if Clinton leads Trump by 10% or more, then a good part of these Bernie Bros will vote Clinton. So in the end I still think Clinton will win, but it's more like 5%.

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi cornelius, Taavi & Winter

cornelius - OMG, I nearly blew my coffee out of my nose, I laughed so hard. Yes, Trump did troll his own Convention. Of course he cannot stand it, that the Democrats will get more TV airtime than Trump gets, and he will say anything he can, like probably that he wants to start a war with Canada, nuke Norway and move the US economy away from the dollar to the Russian rouble or something as wild as that...

I do hope we get a best-of video of Trump's worst hits. BUT that does work almost as well on YouTube, it may not be best use of the Convention time. Its a long-running opportunity to play Trump's best bits for weeks and weeks online and on TV ads, so yeah, I'd love to see it, but probably not best use of the time.

Taavi - (welcome to our little chat group haha) - yeah, it seems there are more leaks to come via Wikileaks. This is only the first salvo. Expect them to try to disrupt the Convention and jump on Hillary's Convention Bounce to limit her polling success etc. I do expect more dirty tricks, not just from the Kremlin, but from Trump. Remember he played really dirty against Cruz and earlier against his other rivals. Its not going to be easy - BUT Hillary holds ALL the cards, that has never happened in US elections before. I do expect it to tilt ever more into Hillary's favor after the Conventions are over. We should have a measure of the 'reality' of the race in the first week of August. Right now the polling is not reliable because of the VP selections and the Conventions. Hillary should get a big bounce out of her Convention if Trump was able to get a modest bounce out of his, with all the misery that Convention consisted of...

Winter - gr8 point, hadn't thought of that. Yes WE can, or Yes I can. Trump is the typical strongman, a banana republic dictator..

cornelius - yes, and we recognize that forecast. Its VERY plausible, yes. We will see which way it starts to go, around the end of August. I think that the early signs we saw in late June, of the race starting to go to a 10 point race for Hillary (unprecedented in modern polling era, before the Conventions) and the sudden panic by the Democrats, that Trump might quit too early haha.. and they pulled back. So the race was back to a few points before the Conventions and now with a modest bounce, about even. Then we get Hillary's Veep bounce and Convention bounce, should be AT LEAST that 5% race you expect for November, around first week of August (could be a lot more) and then if it gets to say 10% by end of August, then its pretty well over. Trump will be crushed in the debates - meaning 15% and then all wheels come off, and its a 20 point huge massive gigantic landslide by November 8, even with a four-way race.

BUT you are correct, that scenario you paint is equally plausible, we'll have a better view after this week.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Winter]

@Tomi
My suspicion:

Trump will not debate and will not release his tax forms. There are only downsides to that. If he does, it will help Hillary, if he doesn"t, that will help her too.

Those who support him will accept any excuse, as they do not want to see Hillary anyway.

[grouch]

Why are none of the talking heads on tv even considering the possibility that some of those "Bernie supporters" are trolls for Trump/Putin? There's a pretty obvious astroturfing going on online; boots on the convention floor wouldn't cost that much more.

[sgtrock]

@grouch;

That's... an interesting possibility. It would be easy to get people into a Sanders meeting. Getting onto the convention floor, though, would be a lot tougher. We are talking about registered Democrats who were chosen by local party affiliates to represent their local interests. Can't imagine many of those would be willing to do dirty work for Trump/Putin.

[cornelius]

Question: what's better? The runner-up calling for disunity and being booed (Cruz) or the runner up calling for unity and being booed (Sanders)? It seems to me that RNC delegates are of higher quality compared to DNC delegates.

[Eduardo M]

I wondering about the sane Republicans leaders who have endorsed Trump, but are realizing that his foreign policy ideas would be suicidal for the US. They must be debating in their minds whether to withdraw their support.

I am guessing what they do will depend to a great extent about what they think will happen in November. If they think Trump will win, then they would want to keep supporting him, since he would be in a position as president to punish them quite harshly. On the other hand, if they think Trump is going to lose badly, then it would make sense to get out now, and later be seen by many as heros.

If they think it would be close, then they might think it would be good to work to try to defeat Trump in order to avoid a disaster for the US, but still be torn.

Well, those are some thoughts. I am wondering what other people here think.