My Photo

Ordering Information

Tomi on Twitter is @tomiahonen

  • Follow Tomi on Twitter as @tomiahonen
    Follow Tomi's Twitterfloods on all matters mobile, tech and media. Tomi has over 8,000 followers and was rated by Forbes as the most influential writer on mobile related topics

Book Tomi T Ahonen to Speak at Your Event

  • Contact Tomi T Ahonen for Speaking and Consulting Events
    Please write email to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com and indicate "Speaking Event" or "Consulting Work" or "Expert Witness" or whatever type of work you would like to offer. Tomi works regularly on all continents

Tomi on Video including his TED Talk

  • Tomi on Video including his TED Talk
    See Tomi on video from several recent keynote presentations and interviews, including his TED Talk in Hong Kong about Augmented Reality as the 8th Mass Media

Subscribe


Blog powered by Typepad

« Speaker Preview: Democratic Convention 2016: Perhaps greatest array of great political speakers in the same place, and at their prime (Updated: with speech reviews) | Main | Election Scorecard Donald Trump vs Hillary Clinton: Aug 1, 2016 (plus my updated forecast) »

July 27, 2016

Comments

ch

Amiga sold more units than SGI. Doesn't matter. Different market.

But IOS will survive. Every IOS user just will have an Android emulator running

Abdul Muis

@Wayne

The ONLY reason that top indian apps still have iOS version is because iOS marketing engine in the past. If you wanna make an apps 5-7 years ago, you will hear the Apple magic words about why you should make Apple Apps first, or Apple only.

We're here talking about the future now, with only a mere 1% sales in India. FUTURE indian apps of iOS version is in a high jeopardy. I know you've been saying that Android didn't die while having apps made after iOS version. THE DIFFERENT??? Apple playing the premium game, that say they're the best, apps build for them first. IF THE MARKET CHANGE and android got the apps first, Apple will lost it's premiumness, it will destroy it value.


Abdul Muis

Samsung seems to hit a jackpot with Galaxy Note 7
http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20160809000267

Paul

@Abdul
With Note 7 Samsung is playing with its strengths again:
Samsung’s aggressive marketing is also playing a role in attracting new customers.
The Gear Fit 2, worth 198,000 won (US$177), is offered as a gift for a new Note purchase. The company pays 50 percent of the repair costs when the screen is broken. A 100,000-won gift card is also given for use at Samsung Pay Mall.

That's so compelling list of reasons I can't see why I would buy any competing Android phone over Note 7.

chithanh

@Wayne Brady
He did talk about local apps, not popular apps. The local apps matter only to a specific group of people and they are not popular nationwide. Lack of any individual app isn't a big problem, but the sum of those apps can be. And it is not difficult to see why, given that Android apps can be developed on a $200 Linux or Windows PC and require only a one-time fee for a Google developer digital certificate.

About the "stops being developed" for popular apps like train or bank apps, he didn't claim that either. Just that Android versions come first. Have a look again at IndPay and the release dates, sometimes a new iOS version is released weeks after the Android one.

http://indpay.appstor.io/app-log
https://apkpure.co/indpay/

That certainly tells you where the priorities are.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Wayne:

You are of the opinion that Apples ecosystem will save it since it is so healthy and profitable.

I and many others are of the opinion that history has proven ecosystems require a large market- and mindshare to survive.

Apples ecosystem will therefore slowly wither and die, since it does not have the market share to support it.

We are of differing opinions, here. I do agree that Apple will be a healthy profitable company for atleast a decade and after that it will slowly burn through it's cash reserves OR find another product to carry it, probably the later. The iPhone will eventually sink to maybe 5% market share or so.

The challenge is not for Apple to avoid iPhone cannibalisation - it is to find a new venue to expand to, beyond smartphones, that is big enough to drive the company. Which, with Apples current size, will be a rather big challenge.

Expect Apple to be third phone manufacturer sometime in the next 4 years. You are welcome to come back and haunt me for that prediction. :)

Abdul Muis

@Wayne

"Hyper local apps just aren't going to matter in the grand scheme of things."

It will be a problem for Apple, if that's apps turn out to be a killer apps. Such as the pokemon go that did not exist for Windows Phone.


"Second is opposition by the government and local phone manufacturers. Together they are blocking Apple from opening stores and selling used phones. All of which point to the reality that there is great demand for the iPhone such that they are resorting to protectionist measures to keep Apple at bay."

There is NO OPPOSITION by government and local phone manufacture. apple think they were SPECIAL, and asking a SPECIAL treatment, THAT'S THE PROBLEM. If apple follow the Indian rule, just like Samsung did, XiaoMi did, Huawei did, LG did, Sony did, there won't be any problem for Apple at all.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Wayne:

You are correct in short-term. Apple is not in any immediate danger.

I'm showing the general pattern to emerge for 10-15 years from now.

In other words; I don't think Apple will ever be as big as they are right now ever again - unless they now find a different market to drive the company. iPhone will not be the focus in a successful, growing Apple, and a continued iPhone focus will only lead to decline.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Wayne:

Looking at other businesses including Apples PC business, it's very clear things will change.

You're saying, "Apples Ecosystem will ensure Apples success because currently Apples Ecosystem is the best there is!"

I'm saying it's not, because history tells us that Apples ecosystem, while currently very good, will not be able to compete with the strength from Android in the long run.

Within the next five years we will start seeing devs abandon Apple in certain local markets, like India. Especially utility apps that are not self-funded e.g. banking apps, facebook, etc. Only games will remain.

Unless, of course, the Android stranglehold is shattered. Which is very unlikely at this point.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Wayne:

In the reality of today. But not tomorrow. Any time reach is more important than app revenue (and it already is for many) iOS users will have to play second-class citizens to Android.

That is what will kill iOS. Slowly, painstakingly, with one user at a time. :)

ch

@Per Actually the probability that android will shatter is very likely because of political reasons. Any state that wants to be independent from the US will simply need a smartphone OS that isn't run from the US. But that still mean that in every market one OS is dominant so Apple sill couldn't win.


@wayne

Apple is doomed is not a next year prediction but a next decade prediction. By 2019 is will be obvious true to everyone but the most die hard fanboys.

chithanh

@ch
Apple is not doomed. They still have time to change strategy, especially while they are still profitable and have cash reserves. And they know how to react, even if they are not as nimble as the Android community: When Apple share was declining because they did not have a big screen phone, they did react in the correct way, though maybe later than would have been optimal.

But Apple still seems to prioritize profits over market share, which may come to bite them in the long run if they stay with that strategy. The India example is actually pretty telling here: 97% Android is past the point where small app developers stop caring about the iPhone and big app developers release Android first and iOS maybe some weeks later.

Tester

@chithanh:

Apple is gradually prioritizing profits over product quality. And that's something that's really going to bite them once the customers realize it. Because the 'superior product quality' (which of course is nonsense to begin with) is what drives their sales.

The iPhone is no longer the best phone on the market, it surely is in the top range but unlike in its early years it got actual competition.

The same can be seen with Macs. If you look closely you'll see, for example, that nearly all Macs aimed at the normal customer no longer have a dedicated graphics card, they all rely on the CPU's integrated graphics accelerator. Which, of course, for office users is entirely sufficient, but with this attitude they are gradually losing the non-hardcore gamers as potential customers. Granted, they may have to install Windows to play those games, but if they are driven off to buy actual non-Apple systems to be able to pursue their hobby it'd be a massive loss. Apple is also doing their best to make game development on Mac harder by not supporting modern industry standard APIs but increasingly relying on their proprietary Metal platform. And when you put these two things together it's a poisonous combination. The gamers are driven off which gives even less incentive to the gaming industry to support macOS, especially since the added work is becoming more, not less.
And this particular problem can be seen nearly everywhere with Apple. It's definitely eating into the loyalty their customers still have if this hardware is increasingly relying on proprietary solutions for nearly everything. Microsoft with their >90% market share on desktop could get away with it for 15+ years, and only now - that Mobile has become a serious competition - it's playing out its disastrous aftereffects, but for a premium-segment niche player this cannot hold for 15 years, it will happen a lot earlier.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Wayne:

Take Facebook. Facebook does not generate revenue from their app. They generate revenue from their users. To Facebook, it does not matter whether iOS has the stronger economic ecosystem.

Take your local bank. Your local bank does not make money from in-app purchases. Your local bank make money from their customers. Reach is more important for them.

Basicly, every type of app which does not care about IAP or direct revenue, will prefer reach over app revenue. I'd say outside of games 80%+ of the apps are like this. They will probably also move over to web apps once that technology is mature (if it isn't already).

Of course, this is on the Android side. I have no idea how the iOS side looks like. This is also the reason I am sceptical about AppAnnie - as they seem to focus on the premise that apps need to bring revenue to be worthwile to develop, and my experience is that no, that's not the case...

Abdul Muis

Ex-Rovio CEO hired to bring Nokia phones back to market
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-nokia-corp-phones-hmd-idUSKCN10Q14U

HMD Global Oy, a new Finnish company looking to relaunch the Nokia brand for phones, said on Monday it has hired Pekka Rantala, the former CEO of Angry Birds maker Rovio, as its Chief Marketing Officer.

Nokia, once the world's biggest maker of mobile phones, said in May it had signed an exclusive licensing deal with HMD to bring Nokia-branded devices back to the market.

A Nokia veteran, Rantala worked for the company from 1994 to 2011. He joined Rovio as CEO in 2015 but stepped down after only a year in the job after imposing deep job cuts and restructuring.

Nokia was wrong footed by the rise of smartphones and eclipsed by Apple and Samsung. It sold its entire handset business to Microsoft Corp in 2014 and now focuses on telecoms network equipment.

Microsoft has largely abandoned the business it acquired since then.

HMD's Nokia-branded phones and tablets run on the Android operating system. The devices will be manufactured and distributed by FIH Mobile, a subsidiary of Foxconn Technology. It is yet to give any timetable for the products.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Wayne:

You bring up examples where App revenue matters.

I'm talking about the cases where the app revenue *doesn't* matter. E.g. it does not matter if Facebook makes money on their App. It matters that they reach as many people as possible. Facebook will therefore target first and foremost, the reach.

For the moment iOS is worth it to develop for. But as market share dries up, so too does iOS platform attractiveness. There will be a tipping point when app devs won't develop for iOS anymore.

That point is not today, or tomorrow, but rather 2020 or beyond.

Tester

@Wayne:

It doesn't matter that Apple is generating more money now. What does matter is that the quality of their platform has been slowly declining ever since Steve Jobs passed away. There's some slow atrition going on, but as an insider it's probably hard to notice. From the outside it looks a whole lot different with Apple putting ever higher roadblocks in place for developers, for example.

In other words: Yes there is more money, but there's also a lot more cost involved to keep an operation going. And this is some quite unhealthy development. Eventually there will come a point when all this maintenance cost cannot be justified any longer, when web apps are so much more economical that a developer-hostile platform will suffer the consequences.

We are in 2016 and Apple still suffers from the same problems, i.e. that last year's apps feel 'dated' and there's need to upgrade them, of course all with the strings attached that Apple again deprecated parts of their API, requiring changes that go well beyond what would be needed to do a simple face lift. In fact, for the iOS apps I have been working on, this is the single biggest time waster, with no positive returns aside from getting the app submitted in the first place.

And since Apple is locking themselves ever further in, I see that spiral continue, until it's too late and the thing implodes.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Wayne:

Facebook cares about money - But not money generated from their App.

For Facebook the app is simply a way to reach more users and they will gladly pay the price of app development to reach 500M potential users, yes.

But - and this is a big but - that number will go down over the years. 400 - 300 - 250M...

At what point will the cost of supporting the iPhone natively be bigger than the cost of a simple web-app with more fully featured apps on Android? Or simply a fully featured webclient which will not support everything on the now-antique Safari browser?

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Wayne:

The market share drop will continue, and this will translate in unit decline as the market matures.

Already this year we will probably see the first YoY unit decline in iOS devices. There will be a smaller surge when the iPhone 6 users upgrade to iPhone 7 (which, if rumors are to be believed, won't happen this year, but next - with a 6T or 6SE coming out this fall). But I doubt unit sales will ever soar past 250M/year.

That means, with an upgrade cycle of 3 years, you get around 750M iPhone users (800-900M iOS users if tablets included). That is like, what, 15% of a 6B units market, with a shrinking piece of that pie each year? If Apple stalls at 250M units and market grows to 2B units - that's 12.5% market share ceiling, and is not enough to drive the company, only sustain it at best.

Apple is like a big ocean liner that has sprung a leak. The party is wild up on deck, and pumps can delay the inevitable, but the water level is slowly, ever so slowly rising...

So yes. 10 years before the pumps fail. After that, things can move rather fast. :)

Paul

@Wayne
Tyr to grasp the relative sizes:
Nokia Devices&Services unit had _annual_ marketing spend of 2.2 BILLION euros in year 2010 and still 2.1 Bn euros in 2011. $500M split over three years is less than tenth of that...
...and Samsung spent 8.5 billion dollars ANNUALLY on marketing both 2010 and 2011.

That 500M/3years is far from the "marketing war chest" needed to crush Samsung.

The comments to this entry are closed.

Available for Consulting and Speakerships

  • Available for Consulting & Speaking
    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

Tomi's eBooks on Mobile Pearls

  • Pearls Vol 1: Mobile Advertising
    Tomi's first eBook is 171 pages with 50 case studies of real cases of mobile advertising and marketing in 19 countries on four continents. See this link for the only place where you can order the eBook for download

Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009

  • Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009
    A comprehensive statistical review of the total mobile industry, in 171 pages, has 70 tables and charts, and fits on your smartphone to carry in your pocket every day.

Alan's Third Book: No Straight Lines

Tomi's Fave Twitterati