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July 27, 2016

Comments

Abdul Muis

@Wayne

http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2016/07/smartphone-wars-iphone-404m-is-about-12-market-share-for-q2-of-2016.html?cid=6a00e0097e337c883301b7c887ba5a970b#comment-6a00e0097e337c883301b7c887ba5a970b
"There are a billion active iOS accounts."

Are you suggesting a billion active iPhone? I believe Tomi already made clear there is no a billion active iPhone user.

Paul

And the new coke Nokia starts shipping for Christmas this year and with 3 to 4 new models:

http://www.androidauthority.com/new-nokia-smartphones-confirmed-q4-2016-710592/

Paul

Regarding Apple and especially Apple Watch, if rumors are correct and Apple releases Watch 2, I believe I will buy Watch for Christmas. Not because I would want Watch 2 but because Watch 1 will be $100 off.
Please take a note: Tomi said that cheap Chinese copies will eat all the market from Apple Watch and here we are that even a price-sensitive iPhone user rather waits for cheaper Apple Watch than buys a cheap Chinese smart watch.

cornelius

More good news from Microsoft:

www.itworld.com/article/3109198/smartphones/windows-smartphone-sales-collapse.html

"Sales of Windows smartphones plunged 76% in the second quarter, plummeting from 8.2 million in 2015 to less than 2 million this year, researcher Gartner said today."

Nice!

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

I've now posted the blog about Nokia return... I'm working on the Q2 numbers blog.. hold on

Tomi Ahonen :-)

vasra

Tomi,

Apple is starting to make the same mistakes as Nokia, at its peak. Falling volumes, falling revenue, trying to squeeze the last bit out of the supply chain:

http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20160818PD200.html

The fall has begun...

vasra

@Wayne Brady

Xiaomi can't squeeze the supply chain. Nor can BBK or ZTE or LG or others. Not enough volume.

Apple, Samsung (and at one time Nokia) could decide the fates of whole companies.

Tough negotiations in the value chain are normal.

Dictating your margins is what caused supply-chain to start to rebel with Nokia, the same is happening now with Apple.

Why? Because Apple is running out of volume growth like Nokia did (and as Samsung is doing). And they don't have enough of features to command premium price and they need to keep the stock price rising by giving better and better results.

It's an attempt (yet another) of a perpetual motion machine and it will fail.

No amount of iTV, kCar, iWatch or whatever "i" for their next logarithmic growth spurt is going to fix this.

In mobile space Apple might still get something next year, but after that it should be obvious that the peak is clearly behind.

And you are wrong, Apple has been in jeopardy ever since they (and even before) they kicked out Jobs.

It's a formidable company, but in the smart phone space I think it's run is had.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

I have finally done the smartphone Q2 numbers for you (you guys mostly knew these already..)

So big news, we're in our industry's first recession. For two quarters straight, the smartphone cumulative 12 month moving total unit sales has DECLINED. Yeah. This year if we're really really lucky, we match 2015 unit sales. We won't see growth past 1.44 B unit smartphone sales. We'll likely see a slight decline closer to 1.41 B total smartphones sold this year. Thats partly thanks to the strong rumors that Apple will switch from 2 year to 3 year model update cycle so also 2016 end of year sales will likely be sluggish, not strong.

Ok, the blog is up for you, lets have the debates and discussions there..

Tomi Ahonen :-)

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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