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July 27, 2016


Wayne Borean


There's a couple of points that need to be considered, but writing it up will be a bit of a project, and will take me until next weekend (lots of numbers to crunch).

Give me a bit of time, and I'll see what I can do.


Apple used tools much earlier already.
The aforementioned delay of the iPhone 6 launch in China to the following quarter was such a thing. It made Q4 2014 record-breaking numbers bigger than they otherwise would have been.
With the iPhone 6s the China launch moved back into the same quarter, so Apple could post launch quarter YoY gains in Q3 2015.
Q4 2015 would be a problem then, but Apple mastered this by stuffing the channel, thus postponing the sales slump to Q1 2016, when public attention to Apple sales figures would be much lower.

Not sure if all this was intentional, but it certainly was the thing they needed to do to make large screen iPhone sales appear good as long as possible.

Eduardo M

Off topic: review of Ubuntu phone:

Abdul Muis

Talking about Microsoft still have a grip in the desktop OS....

"Apparently, Charles Schwab has seen the light on Chromebooks too, as the financial company has chosen them for a specific need -- in-person account opening. In other words, the much-respected company did not choose Windows 10 for this project. Sorry, Microsoft!"

"...that is the beauty of Chrome OS! There is no need to worry about malware and high administration costs -- Chromebooks and Chromeboxes just work! For a client-facing portal, the Linux-based operating system is a brilliant way to keep sensitive information secure."

"The company was able to implement 1,000 of the computers in just two months time. The company was so impressed with the results, that it is now looking to implement Chrome OS desktops (Chromeboxes) in locations too."

Abdul Muis

Apple has sold a measly 800,000 iPhones in the second quarter of 2016

According to a new report by Strategy Analytics, the second quarter of 2016 has seen Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) sell only 800,000 smartphones in India. Apple’s numbers in the world’s third largest smartphone market are far from impressive and the most recent numbers show us how much Apple is struggling in the country. Last year, the company managed to ship 1.2 million units in the company which is now down to only 800,000.

According to the report, the Indian smartphone market is expected to sell 139 million handsets in 2016 and the vast majority will be Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) Android devices. The high number of Android devices will all cost a meager $150 or less. The data also shows that Google’s Android has managed to capture 97 percent of India’s smartphone market and Apple’s numbers are on the decline.


Tim Cook's response to iphone sales drop in India is interesting:

"We're not here for a quarter, or two quarters, or the next year, or the next year," Cook told NDTV. "We're here for a thousand years."

Even a decade is very long time in high tech industry, but Tim Cook can see 1000 years in the future.


> There was a time when folks gave Apple no chance at being successful in China.....or even outside the US for that matter

You're right on that. Take Tomi's initial reaction to iPhone:
"If the iPhone does not have a keypad, it may be successful in America, but it will definitely fail in the rest of the world."


China happened for Apple still in the golden days for apps. That time has gone so i'm afraid that all the apps in the Indian market made for Android wont be made for IOS and as such i don't see a change in India.

Abdul Muis

China problem:

Google made a mistake by walking out of china on android market, while apple bow down to china rules.This made the android at disadvantage in china.

In India, apple dont have any advantage.


Golden day for apps. I said nothing about Apple


"There were golden days for Apple? It's been nothing but doom for Apple since the iPhone was released.

At first - nobody but stupid Americans would buy it because America was a backwater mobile nation. And on and on.

There has never been a time where "gee, Apple,has a very nice product with some important differentiations that are going to sell quite well""

Exactly. Nobody said 2007 that wow! Apple is going to sell 1 BILLION of these iPhones and wow! after that they are going to sell another 2 BILLION of them. and with a price between 500 to 1000 dollars. Like THEY are going to make TRILLIONS out of it.

Per "wertigon" Ekström


We do understand Apples business model just fine. The problem here is exactly the reason why Apple will fail; differentiation.

Imagine a car. Imagine that car can go anywhere, and it's the most comfortable car ever created. There is just one problem. It cannot travel the highways. Mileage is great, it drives 200 miles a gallon, and it is the easiest car to maintain ever.

Would you buy that car, knowing it cannot travel the highways?

And that's why Apple is set up to fail. It cannot travel the same roads Android does, and sadly, they are out of rich consumers to grow from, even China is abandoning them.

But hey, that doesn't mean they won't have 10-15 good years left. Just that their market share will point downwards ever more from now on. :)

Per "wertigon" Ekström


I thought I answered that question?

Simply put it's because I use a linear model with an optimistic look on growth reduction. In hindsight global growth reduction has been 13%-14% instead of 10% (18% for Apple).

And yes, sales figures are out but I'm a lazyarse and waiting for Tomis Q2 numbers. :) It is after all only a hobby of mine and I never claimed you should use my numbers for any kind of accuracy, just displaying my thinking.

But yeah, with 348M Q2 total Apple is projected to hit 13.7% market share this year according to my model. Let's see now what happens with this and next year iPhone. Growth is all but certain for total market.

Abdul Muis


Android in china have disadvantage as google play store were banned. In the past this make apple is lots better in china thus making the rich china prefer apple.

In india were different. Rich india prefer android. Android have the android advantage for android apps first for local apps such as india bank apps, india train apps. Some local even dont care to make apple apps at all. This not only happened in india.


Apple targeted refurbished iPhones for India which they had received through their upgrade program. But the Indian government didn't play along, so this plan went bust.


@Wayne Brady
> Name the great Indian Android apps that have no iOS version.

This is not what he claimed, he didn't say great apps, he said local apps.

> Name the Indian Banks that created Android apps but not iOS

This is a strawman argument again, he did not claim such a thing. Instead he claimed that Indian banks put Android first. If you compare e.g. IndPay versions on App Store and Google Play you will see what he meant.

Like from your previous post "It's been nothing but doom for Apple"...
> You are simply talking out of your rectum.
No. It is your Apple persecution complex which is speaking.


You're missing the point. Apple is fine NOW because of their history of iOS having a lot of app users but they will be in trouble in the future:

"Apple will own about 8% of the phone market around year 2020 when all phones sold are smartphones and most app developers will find that totally irrelevant to bother with. It is EXACTLY the same as what happened with."
Tomi Ahonen, October 30, 2014

Christin De Lave


Apple now good cause the past
In next time situatition not same
When apple have no first, is premium less
Less premium, less profit, little sales = trouble
Why insist stuborn. You should acep this.

Per "wertigon" Ekström


The top Indian apps are available on iOS too, yes.

But they are not as good as their Android versions and often released later than the Android version.

If you were to tell people in 2008 that RIM would be close to bankrupt today, they would have laughed you out of the room. Yet here we are.

If you were to tell people in 2008 that Nokia would completely abandon their phones business 5 years later, you'd also be laughed out of the room. Yet here we are.

Now we're telling you that Apple does have long-term trouble and their worldwide market share will decrease in a death spiral. And you try to laugh us out the room, saying no, that is not the case. Because APPS!!! But facts:

1. Android has better webapp support.
2. Android has the better reach.

If I were Apple I'd reboot the push for webapps just to stay relevant for the future. But there is far too much prestige and money in the App market now, so they will not bother.

Per "wertigon" Ekström


If Apple and Android were armies, they'd be Japan to Americas army in WW II.

in 1942, the Japanese Empire was at the height of it's power. In 1945 it was all gone.

That is the difference between Apples strength and Androids. :)

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