Pokemon Go: Is AR for real? 12 Million playing a half Billion dollar annual revenue game by revenues already, on Augmented Reality

I said Augmented Reality would be the 8th Mass Media (to be fair, Raimo van der Klein then CEO of Layar the AR company, said it first). And we've gone quite a while since the iButterfly rage and seemed like AR might slip into the annals of forgotten tech of vast promise but no reality. And now we get Pokemon Go.

It was beta-tested in Japan since April and in selected other countries since. It was formally launched a week ago. Pokemon Go is an AR Augmented Reality game played with smartphones. The Pokemon Go gaming app has already more than 10 million downloads on Android, over 2 million on iOS (so total users over 12 million in supremely rapid ramp-up) and the game delivers daily revenues already of 1.5 million dollars. Thats an annual revenue run-rate of 550 million dollars, even if the user numbers stalled to the current levels. A Half-Billion Dollar revenue game, that has exploded onto smartphone screens in the past week. A game that has an average revenue per gamer of 3.75 dollars per month.

So for those who have been living under a rock during their summer vacation - Pokemon Go has virtual Pokemon characters lurking in cyberspace, waiting to be caught. You see them only through the Pokemon Go AR app, after its installed onto your smartphone. Then you use your smartphone like a special Pokemon-binoculars, and you look into the world around you, and voila! you spot a Pokemon. Obviously this is geared to those who are of the right age to actually grow up with the (lovely?) Pokemon characters. To catch one, you have to toss a virtual ball and hit the Pokemon character (so it has some of that fun of Angry Birds ballistics also in it). And this franchise has something like over 150 characters already now out, from the original collector card set. The full Pokemon series runs up to over 700 characters, so expect more to appear. And there are apparently some types that exist in various locations so the Pokemon Go game knows the area, so a water-oriented Pokemon needs to be caught at the lake or river or sea, and some characters appear only at night, etc. Ok, enough of the game. You collect (and fight) virtual monsters that are only visible through a smartphone screen. An AR game. With 12 million gamers in one week !!!! Its fully freemium based, you can play it totally free, but also you can buy all sorts of virtual properties to make it more fun. Earning already 1.5 million dollars daily. Judging by when the original Pokemon craze was on, I'd guess most gamers are between 15 and 25 years of age, that would seem like a pretty darned attractive gamer target too. And differing from most videogames, this one brings gamers OUTDOORS where you go to hunt the Pokemons, so it blends reality and virtuality - exactly as Augmented Reality was intended to do.

So with that. A few reminders. My original. TEDx Talk explaining what is Augmented Reality and why it is the next mass media ie 8th mass media (Print, recordings, cinema, radio, TV, internet and mobile were the first 7 mass media as we know). This video has had over 40,000 viewings (thanks) and is one of my best presentations, very very widely referenced (thank you). In it I discuss what I imagined AR will be like once it becomes a mass media towards the end of the decade. There are elements of Pokemon Go in those early examples that I show. If you have a colleague who doesn't believe in AR, tell them to go see the video. Its the 'primer' to what is AR and why it will be a NEW mass media, not just a media FORMAT for older media.

Then I have two updates to that story. I have forecasted that AR as a mass media will reach an audience of 1 Billion paying users by year 2020 (we are on track with that number, and for context, newspapers have a global circulation of less than half that number). So I did the keynote to the Augmented Reality Expo in California where I calculated the projection and said we were on track to hit that 1 Billion audience for AR by year 2020. This may be very relevant to the Pokemon Go discussion and enthusiasm now. So if you haven't seen it, go see my Keynote to AWE.

And for those who live in the Emerging World, who are wondering, will AR ever be relevant to their markets. I spoke at an event in South Africa, where I was interviewed about the potential of AR to South Africa and that presentation is also very relevant to all of the Emerging World. So see this short interview about AR and what thresholds can we consider when will AR become viable in the Emerging World countries.

Yes Augmented Reality will be the 8th Mass Media. It will be as different from mobile and the internet, as TV is different from cinema, or how much radio is different from music recordings. And Pokemon Go? Great concept Nintendo. May your Pokemon characters take over the planet haha...

Comments

[jj]

According to latest polls, people who play Pokemon Go support also Donald Trump.

[Vlakdr]

Is it really possible that you forgot to praise Nokia for having AR in its Symbian phones in 2009 already and having 80%+ market share in AR globally...
...before Elop blew it?

[Winter]

I watched your TeDx talk from 2012. In it you show a graph (Mobile Media and AR Media) where you expect AR to pass 1B users by 2020. How do you think about this expectation now, 4 years on?

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

Incidentally it's only available on Android in most markets (since iOS does not allow sideloading). :)

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

Actually no, scratch that. Just realised iOS allows you to switch regions in the app store which Android doesn't.

It is interesting that a locked platform such as iOS actually doesn't have any effective region locking policies...

[Wayne Borean]

Rick Wiles: Satan Using Pokémon Go To Spawn 'Demonic Powers' And Murder Christians

http://www.rightwingwatch.org/content/rick-wiles-satan-using-pok-mon-go-spawn-demonic-powers-and-murder-christians

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hey you idiot

Keep posting that same comment. You didn't notice? You KNOW the rules. I'm not warning you. I'll just keep deleting your older comments haha... go ahead, dare me. Post again. I dare you. I double-dare you!

oh, really? you only now noticed how many of your old comments are already gone forever... ooh, I feel soooo bad for you. Oh, I really feel for you. Oh, I'm crying for you.

Yeah. Try posting again. You know it takes me one click but I take again a ton of your older comments WITH it.. do it. Do it. Moron

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi Winter

Good question. Last did update last year (2015) and we are on target. I've narrowed the 1B target from original +/- 50% year 2020 to +/- 30% now as we've gotten more data in. I hope to get again more AR data soon so I can do an update on the numbers but yeah, AR will have an audience of a Billion, its very well on track. Is it exactly year 2020 or 2019 or 2021, thats about the only issue left

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Winter]

@Wayne Borean
"Rick Wiles: Satan Using Pokémon Go To Spawn 'Demonic Powers' And Murder Christians"

What I found remarkable is this quote:
"... ,comparing the use of the App to Philando Castile’s girlfriend use of Facebook Live to live stream the aftermath of Castile’s shooting by a police officer, which he said might have been staged."

This is beyond believe. My only conclusion can be that this Wiles figure not only lost his connections with reality, he is also a hardened racist.

[Abdul Muis]

When pokemon first arrived, A friend of mine told me his nephew who studied in Christian school were not allowed to play pokemon or have pokemon picture/sticker/etc in school. Saying that pokemon is evil.

LOL

[Winter]

@Abdul Muis
"A friend of mine told me his nephew who studied in Christian school were not allowed to play pokemon or have pokemon picture/sticker/etc in school."

Just like Harry Potter books/films. What is the difference with, say, censorship in Saudi Arabia or Iran?

This reminds me of a hilarious movie dialogue from Teheran Taxi. Here a school girl tries to explain to the taxi driver (her father or uncle and a famous movie director) what she would be allowed to put in her movie for her school project. Actually, everything is censored, but it is not called censorship but they use an euphemism "good things".

One "direction" she got was that person in her movie should have Arabic (Muslim) names, not Persian names. And that in a movie about Iranians in Iran (which are all Persians).

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi everybody

I just learned that I have a Pokemon-related alter ego. Not an actual Pokemon character as such, but an evil human who is the boss of 'Team Rocket' - dresses in dark suits, white shirts, wears red ties and dorky hats - exactly like ME !!!! The evil... Giovanni !!!

Hi Winter - yeah, obviously Pastor Rick Wiles has discovered the diabolical truth that decades-long children's game Pokemon has actually Satan hiding in it... Gosh, darn it. We got busted! And I thought I was being just about devious enough to hide that Satan from Rick Wiles but gosh those right-wing American lunatic pastors are way too clever for us evil people..

I created an alter-ego for myself in Twitter and debuted my new image of Giovanni in front of Pokemon characters (go take a look in my recent Twitter timeline). I also urged all my followers to go worship Satan by playing Pokemon Go haha....

What a mental midget. I'm sure he also thinks Disney's Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck were actually Satan corrupting a previous generation...

But I really did enjoy discovering Giovanni. Yeah. I'm not maybe James Bond or even a Bond villain but I am an evil human in the Pokemon saga, Giovanni !! Thats something. I can die happy :-)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Tomi T Ahonen]

UPDATE

Anime News Network quotes stats from Surveymonkey that Nintendo Go has passed 21 million gamers in the USA alone. So worldwide probably around 23M - 25M type of numbers with more launches now happening for example in Germany etc. Here link to the updated numbers:

http://www.animenewsnetwork.com/news/2016-07-14/pokemon-go-estimated-with-21-million-daily-users-as-top-smartphone-game-in-u.s-ever/.104291

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Matches]

@Winter: "Just like Harry Potter books/films. What is the difference with, say, censorship in Saudi Arabia or Iran?"

Do you really not see the difference between a school in which you voluntarily enroll your child having rules about certain imagery or games, and the government of an entire country banning certain books/movies or blocking all access to certain Internet sites?

[Abdul Muis]

Since PokemonGo only available on Android & iOS, I wonder if this PokemonGo qualified as THE killer apps that kill other platform such as Blackberry & Tizen.

[grogxd]

Tomi quoting a site named 'anime news network' in his blog

What a time to be alive

It was known that when Nintendo were to launch a Pokemon game in a broadly available platform it would be a success, but this massive response of the public has taken even them by surprise.

They haven't yet announced their new platforms. I bet that now they are wondering how much sense it makes to stay in that closed platforms business model.

@Abdul: Well, they were already dead to get started. In any case it's a point of no return for minor OSs. You can't compete without access to entertainment that your rivals have.

[PokemonGo]

"http://www.animenewsnetwork.com/news/2016-07-14/pokemon-go-estimated-with-21-million-daily-users-as-top-smartphone-game-in-u.s-ever/.104291"

That is fantastic. 1,6 Million revenue from the iOS-platform per day! That means that they are actually making 2,258 million per day. (Apple takes 30% from the revenue like everybody else). So 2,25 times 365 is 824 million annually and it will be much bigger when they add rest of the world to the game. Pokemon franchise has made over 46 billion dollars worldwide since 1996 so this definately will take them to the next level. This game is absolutely going to take the number one spot in every metric used.

"An earlier Forbes report on Monday notes that market intelligence firm Sensor Tower estimates that the game earns US$1.6 million in daily revenue from its iOS version, with no figures provided for the game's Android version."

That is again the new normal that Android apps don't make any money for the developer and Android app space is losing business. This will further cement iOS marketshare lead in the app business.

[Abdul Muis]

@PokemonGo

"That is fantastic. 1,6 Million revenue from the iOS-platform per day! That means that they are actually making 2,258 million per day. (Apple takes 30% from the revenue like everybody else). So 2,25 times 365 is 824 million annually"

You're math is questionable!!!!
IAP usually spike for the first couple of month, then fell off big.

[Abdul Muis]

@PokemonGo

"That is again the new normal that Android apps don't make any money for the developer and Android app space is losing business. This will further cement iOS marketshare lead in the app business."

REALLY????
Just because they don't have any figure yet, then you can draw that conclusion?
Are you the Australian professor that Tomi ban?

[GoPokemon]

Sorry I accidentaly used the trademark PokemonGo when it should have been GoPokemon. :/

"@PokemonGo

"That is fantastic. 1,6 Million revenue from the iOS-platform per day! That means that they are actually making 2,258 million per day. (Apple takes 30% from the revenue like everybody else). So 2,25 times 365 is 824 million annually"

You're math is questionable!!!!
IAP usually spike for the first couple of month, then fell off big."

That is your opinion. My opinion is that it will go up up up. Only because there is still people who don't have access to that and those who has it are so hooked. I am 100% sure that Apple will keep 30% of the revenue. Pokemon business is aleready a multi billion dollar business annually.

"@PokemonGo

"That is again the new normal that Android apps don't make any money for the developer and Android app space is losing business. This will further cement iOS marketshare lead in the app business."

REALLY????
Just because they don't have any figure yet, then you can draw that conclusion?
Are you the Australian professor that Tomi ban?"

Who?

iOS-platform instantly performed and we have the statistics. You give me the Android sales higher than 0. We might have to wait that until Nintendo tells us that, but at the moment the statistics and the money comes from the iOS-platform. Not my headline.

Of course Google is so OPEN, that they will prove me wrong and tell that Pokemon made more on Android than it did with the iOS. In this case we should see Google revenue go up more than 1/4 billion dollars only for the Pokemon Go 12 months ahead (Google Play revenue). Check the finance part of the annual data when it comes available.