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Smartphone Wars: iPhone 40.4M is about 12% market share for Q2 of 2016

Quick note from the smartphone wars amidst all the political coverage. Apple reported its Apr-Jun quarter results. iPhone sales 40.4 million, down 21% from the previous quarter. I estimate iPhone quarterly share of all smartphones at about 11.6% (down from 15.3% in the previous quarter). To compare one year ago, the market share for iPhone was 13.6% this same quarter. I will of course collect the data for all smartphones and report the full market data when all the info has come in

Speaker Preview: Democratic Convention 2016: Perhaps greatest array of great political speakers in the same place, and at their prime (Updated: with speech reviews)

I want to do a preview of the Democratic Convention because this is one for the ages. The Democratic Convention of 2016 starts in some hours. The Republican Convention ended with most top talent skipping the event, and many speeches delivered by C-List politicians and D-List celebrities (When you have to get Scott Baio to step in to cover for Gary Busey who couldn't fill in for Chuck Norris to replace Clint Eastwood to talk to an empty chair - that is bottom-of-the-barrel indeed). The Republican Convention was the first not to have a past President speak to his party's Convention (the Democrats will have at least two, probably three if Jimmy Carter does also a greeting). Trump's speech was the darkest, nastiest in at least our lifetimes. And the time interval between the two Conventions is only three days. The contrast could not be greater.


UPDATE - This blog has been updated now to include not just my previews as originally written, but also my actual speech REVIEWS immediately after delivered. See below


But the quality of the Democratic speakers is phenomenal. We have first off, two of the three best political speakers of our lifetimes still alive and speaking at this Convention (and still in their primes, although Bill Clinton is probably nearing the end of that time span). I mean Bill Clinton, Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama as the three best political speakers of our lifetime. Reagan the Republican has long since died and they don't have currently any real orator to replace him. The Democratic side has two, Bill who was the best on that side of the aisle, and then came the once-in-a-century super public speaker, Obama, perhaps best orator ever (bearing in mind, we have to consider people like Winston Churchill then to compare). And Obama is obviously at his prime. For a Convention to have these two magnificent public speakers both deliver a major speech, that alone is worth watching the event. Except that is not all. This is such a rich, deep bench of superbly talented speakers, I want to do my preview. Lets start with Mr Hands

I don't get Goofy McGoofface. Uncle Bernie doing that Music Conductor thing with his hands, like he was conducting the Democratic Symphony Orchestra. But he is truly beloved by the very left of the Democratic party and the youth vote. This means, that whatever goofy weird speech he delivers, he will get a roaring stong response from the partisan crowd. Nearly half of the Democrats votes for Bernie, it will reflect in the room, they will love him. So we will get his weird hands and his .. interesting .. rhetorical stylings. Expect Bernie to be heavily against Trump in his speech and push the very progressive agenda. He will of course 'endorse' and say he will vote for Hillary, he won't be pulling a Ted Cruz, but still, if you want rhetorically a great speech, no Bernie won't be quite that. But he will get enormously warm response from the crowd Monday night. .

But right on Day 1, we get a superstar. A future megastar. A potential future President of the USA, giving her best speech to date. Its of course the most beloved politician in the USA, whose words were already heard last week to roaring approval by the Republicans. Its FLOTUS. Michelle Obama the First Lady of the United States. When Michelle first did this now-obligatory spousal speech in 2008 at the Convention, it took a lot of people by surprise, was highly praised (and very good). She was nervous that we could hear in her voice but she delivered magnificently. Yes, indeed that Melania Trump so liked that speech, she singled out parts of it to her speech-writing staff, who then managed to plagiarize Michelle Obama without 'noticing' haha (incompetent fools, shoulda been fired by Trump, on the spot). So lets fast-forward 4 years, to 2012. Now Michelle had been FLOTUS for four years, spoken at counless events, knew her hubby would be in full swing and deliver a barnburner, so Michelle plotted her cunning ploy and practised and wrote and re-wrote, a masterpiece, delivered with poise and style. She knocked that one out of the park. It was not 'only' the best speech ever by a Presidential spouce, it was arguably the best speech of the 2012 Convention, of any 'real' politician. Is she competitive? You betcha! Does she know Barack can raise his game and deliver monster speeches? Sure. Is she as smart and as good and as capable - yes! And will Michelle put in her best effort, now as her last speech to her party as FLOTUS? This will be epic Michelle. It will have your hairs stand on edge. She will have shivers down your spine. She won't bother with attacking Trump, that is for mere mortals to do. She will take a speech to soar, to talk to the better angels of Americans, of where the nation can go, and indeed needs to go. What it is to be an American. It will sound like the speech of a woman who intends to become the first black female President some day.. Yes. Expect a barnburner from Michelle. She will try to beat the speech that Barack will deliver. Its like being a ranked tennis player and going against the one who is ranked number 1. Michelle, a magnificent speaker, will raise her game. Do not miss this speech.

Day 2 gives us the Big Dog. Bill Clinton was not given a big speech slot for the 2000 Convention for Al Gore, and neither for the 2008 Convention with Obama, but Obama did use Bill finally in 2012, and boy did he deliver. In an economy election where Businessman Mitt Romney was the opponent, the best Democrat to argue the economy, was finally let loose, and the Big Dog came in and stole the show. They thought he's too old, he didn't have it anymore but Bill Clinton, if he knows something, he knows how to deliver a speech to Democratic audiences. In some way it was his 'revenge' speech, that Al Gore should have let Bill do, to show, come on, his Presidency was a good time for America. After the W Bush years, Bill now was even more eager to show, hey, they do it wrong, we do it right, and here is why. This message is Bill's bread-and-butter. I am certain it will be his remit again, to do a new version of that speech. Show how Reagan-Bush 1 with their voodoo economics messed America, he, Bill, fixed it, Bush 2-Cheney then ran America into another ditch, and its taken Obama 8 years to fix that mess. This is a good argument that Bill makes the best, against another 'businessman' and alleged Billionaire even, Donald Trump. If you want red meat on the economy argument against Trump, here will be plenty of that, but also, plenty of praise for Obama, and then of course promising how Hillary will now do better and take this matter to a more positive USA. If you can ask any speaker to deliver this message, there is nobody - on either side - who can do it better than Bill Clinton. He will be the star of Day 2. Bill will bring his A-Game, partly because he knows Obama is speaking on the next day, and they of course feel competitive about who gets the best reviews. Bill may be on his very end of his peak speaking period, but I think this will still be one for the ages.

Wednesday gets us Joe Biden. Who cares. But Wednesday is Obama's day. He has three missions he wants to accomplish. He wants to close the argument, that his Presidency is the best of the recent history, that he delivered to an unbelievable degree, and therefore the Democrats in the room - and Americans watching at home, should be happy of all that his incredible legacy achieved. It is a kind of closure on his promise. Yes We Can. I would hope he actually revisited that chant, with something like 'Yes We Did' but Obama hated that chant back in 2008 thinking it was corny (it was a rhetorical tool that David Axelrod came up with). The last time Obama used that Yes We Can chant, was only briefly in his victory speech (he had stopped using it on the stump many weeks prior). It would probably break decibel levels if Obama came back to that chant one more time. But yes, back to reality (he hated it, he won't be doing that). But his second mission is to destroy Trump. The animosity is personal. Trump was leading the birtherism conspiracy theory and kept that bullshit alive forever. Obama already once skewered Trump with it, so badly Trump still bears a grudge (the White House Correspondents Dinner) and as Trump and the Republicans like to play games of 'its all Obama's fault' - this is his chance to strike back. Strike back at the biggest stage - where Obama speaks SECOND. Trump will never get a big stage again to respond to the attacks that Obama now gets to make. It will be epic. And my guess is, he does it with viciously funny jokes to diminish Trump and expose him as the hypocrite Trump so clearly is. The third thing Obama wants to achieve is a strongly unified party to go elect Hillary. Obama really needs this, because if Hillary loses, Obama's legacy will be dismantled. Once Hillary and Obama had their meeting where Hillary told Obama she'd like him to campaign with her (Al Gore didn't want Bill Clinton's support and John McCain didn't want W Bush's support; this is by no means automatic) - the two have been plotting on how to do this the best. This is Obama's 'swan song' speech that his Presidency will be remembered for. He will knock this so far out of the park, it may land in another country haha... Obama has been bored with trying to run a country that the Republicans block him at ever stage, and for many weeks, even months, leading up to this moment, Obama has looked forward to THIS speech. It will be one that people will study for decades to come, as a perfect speech. In the class of Churchill's Never Surrender or Martin Luther King's I Have A Dream or Reagan's Shining City on a Hill or indeed, Obama's own No Red States, No Blue States speech from the 2004 Convention. This will be the best speech Obama has written. His speech-writers will work very hard on it, but Obama will take an exceptionally strong role himself in authoring it and finalizing it. It will also be the best delivery he has for a speech (his 2012 Convention speech was flat, overshadowed by both Bill Clinton and Michelle Obama). If you have the best large-audience public speech type speaker at his prime, delivering a speech about his Presidency at its end, to a partisan crowd, and who has a huge motivation to make this his best, it will be .. difficult to describe. It will be awesome. After last week of despair and hate and division, this will be the most uplifting speech by Obama since he was running in 2008. I would put this as the front-runner for best speech of the Convention.

Now on Wednesday we also get Tim Kaine's speech. The new Vice President's (ok, ok, nominee) acceptance speech will be a far refined version of what he did in the speech we heard in Miami on Saturday with Hillary. He will do a part in Spanish of course. He will lay a path to the future of the administration with Hillary, what kind of things they want to achieve. And it will attack Trump too, drawing contrasts especially around the discrimination of blacks by Trump etc. Kaine is no Barack Obama or Bill Clinton but he is no Al Gore or John Kerry either. This will be a very powerful speech - written by the best speech-writers the Democrats have - on a personal biography that is almost perfectly suited for a Democratic candidate.  It will be powerful and emotional and will bring tears to the eyes of the audience. Kaine knows he is speaking after Obama (his speech is the last of the day, of course) and that will make him raise his game to the challenge. We've seen Kaine before, the 'boring Kaine' when he did his own speech-writing and didn't have pro coaching. Then we saw what professional help can do, if you are willing to put in the effort - we saw that on Saturday. This speech will be very very big pressure on Tim Kaine, but he will also practise practise practise, and he will deliver a powerful speech, very very well. More than anything, he will connect with that audience. If you want 'cum bay yah' gosh, the Democrats will be son incredibly united on Wednesday night after that speech - and ready to and fight, you won't believe.

On Thursday we get yet another surprisingly strong speech. Chelsea Clinton sees how Ivanka and the various Trump kids were received for their speeches. She also has the genes of her dad. And she has the poise of hanging around Democrats for three decades. Now she gets to do a major primetime speech to introduce her mom for President. This speech will get every single bit of pro advice by the Clintons, they all want her to be the best speaker of the week, and she will get all  the best help from the speech-writing team, and she of course will have seen her mom and dad practise THEIR speeches as she prepares. Chelsea clearly wants a political career for herself and this is the launch pad, nothing could be a bigger night that speaking on the last day of this epic Convention of superstar speakers. She will be more poised, more personal, more factual, more convincing than the Trump kids. Chelsea will be cheered as, at least, the best of the 'kids table' speakers, that much is certain. But if you want a dark horse. She could even steal the show. I am certain when she finishes her speech the Convention hall will on its feet cheering and refusing to stop clapping and there will not be a dry eye in the room. And her proud mom will wait and wait, let Chelsea take all the applause thats coming, because Hillary knows, the TV networks will not cut out of her acceptance speech anyway. She will just wait and smile. Proud mom.

What of Hillary? She ends the Convention with her acceptance speech followed by the ballons dropping  There is plenty of speculation that Hillary will be overshadowed by her Convention and the incredible speaker lineup that she has. Well... one thing we know about Hillary Clinton is that she fights. She prepares. And a great speech is partly a great speaker, it is also great speech-writing, and its practise. What she lacks in pure raw talent, Hillary can make up a lot with hard work. She knows this is the battle of Bill vs Barack. She knows even her daughter is raising her game, and Hillary knows as a competitive wife, that Michelle wants to beat her husband on this stage. Hillary knows how much the others are raising their games. She will do so too. It will be, by far, the best speech Hillary Clinton has ever delivered. It will be deeply personal, emotional, uplifting, inspirational, with plenty of issues and facts and examples. It may not mention Trump at all, or only touch upon him briefly. It will be Hillary rising above the vitriol of the previous week and it will be a speech all Democrats can rally around, to want to join her. It will also talk to moderates and Independents, showing she has ideas to help heal, not divide, the country. It will have humor. I cannot imagine it reaches to the level of Obama or Bill (or Michelle) at their peaks, but.. she will not be overshadowed in her own Convention. It will be a powerful speech delivered with perfection. She will - in typically Hillary Clintonish way - over-prepare. She will practise this speech probably 50 times where most other pro speakers might practise this type of speech 20 times.

Which leaves me to the real dark horse. One more superstar A-List speaker is missing from my analysis. Elizabeth Warren. She speaks on Day 1 and this is the next 'world's best speaker' in politics. If you've seen the progression of her public speaking, she's gone from good, to great to MAGNIFICENT. She really knows how to get under Trump's skin, and she seems to relish this role, and Trump is clearly freaking out whenever Warren talks about him .As she speaks on the first day, I'm pretty sure she was given the job to skewer Trump. The single best attack speech, possibly totally dedicated to only Trump (in the way Chris Christie's speech at the Republican Convention was purely an anti-Hillary speech). This will be the purest of red meat to the audience of Democrats. It comes on the same day as Bernie speaks, so the emotions will be even more about 'hating Trump' than strictly loving Hillary. Elizabeth Warren gets to do the ultimate attack speech and on the biggest stage she has ever had. And she clearly hates Trump. She will love doing this. And now my opinion as a speech coach. Elizabeth is truly rare, exceptionally brilliant public speaker. The nearest thing to Barack Obama on the bench of either side. She may be the next best speaker in the world. She has only improved and she now knows, she is at her first Wimbledon finals, and she has to up her game. This speech will be one for the ages. If the best speech of this Convention of Great Speeches will not be Obama's then my dark horse pick, is in that case, it will be that Warren happens to actually do even better than Obama - by a hair. To be far, her job will be a bit easier, if she only has to attack the most ludicrous and flawed candidate in history haha. But still. Expect her speech to make you howl in laughter and cry and scream. Do. Not. Miss. Elizabeth. Warren.

My handicapping? I would guess the best spearkers of these nine will be in this ranking 1 Barack Obama, 2 Elizabeth Warren, 3 Michelle Obama, 4 Bill Clinton, 5 Chelsea Clinton, 6 Hillary Clinton, 7 Tim Kaine, 8 Joe Biden, 9 Bernie Sanders.

Now stock up on the popcorn and your favorite beverage. Let the World Series of Public Speaking begin..


UPDATE - 30 July - Actual Speaker Reviews 

I wrote the actual speech reviews, immediately when the speech was finished, and wrote those into the comments. I received requests to put them into one place, so I put them here now, as a collection. I am posting the speech reviews in chronological sequence as they were presented. I am adding Cory Booker which was not listed in the above but his was that good. These are verbatim from how I posted them into the comments.

Cory Booker... that coulda been the keynote. Not just a far better speech than anything from the Republicans, its one of the best speeches of ANY convention. Very inpirational, very VERY well written. Delivered a bit too fast, he's still young. But it was funny to see how it drew Bill Clinton to the edge of his seat.. a great speaker really knows another great speech and he was into it haha.

Wow... that was FLOTUS. The First Lady speech for all to remember forever. So far best of the Convention. What I did not expect was how strongly she argued for Hillary and attacked Trump. Wow. So powerful, emotional, inspirational.

Elizabeth Warren - strong speech but I'll put Cory ahead of her. I think her delivery was off by the booing that she received several times. She did suffer following the emotion of Michelle. But also as a speech, it wasn't quite in Cory's class. So my grading - Michelle best, Cory second & Warren third.

Bernie... very good from Bernie. Yes out of these four speakers Bernie was .. fourth, but still a good speech. He had like Cory and Warren, some audience hostility but he mostly won them over and finished strong. I think this speech goes far into helping unite the party. The very end, nice to go fully Hillary endorsement. Compare this to Ted Cruz and his speech haha..

Most of the speakers had to speak through boos and various protest calls including Cory Booker, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. The one who didn't get the boos, was Michelle Obama. And she made a very strong personal endorsement of Hillary, not just professionally competent, but as her personal friend. And the room was respectful of the First Lady. Obviously a brilliantly written speech, delivered very powerfully, she also had the room mesmerized, so she also got away with it by the time her speech got to the Hillary parts.

The Big Dog still has it. Wow cool story-speech. Held the room captivated, and gave angles and views to Hillary that nobody else obviously can do. I didn't expect it to be the bio speech (though that would be Chelsea although she may also do so). I expected the economy speech, but no, this was a love story about Hillary that I am sure helps her overcome some of her negatives (as this whole day is intended to do). Great speech. Not quite as good as Michelle yesterday, but delivered in still pitch-perfect Bill Clinton style, folksy, charming, funny. Touching people.

Joe Biden. He came loaded for bear. This was his swan-song speech after a very long career in politics and very widely known and popular politician. And unusually for Joe, he was very disciplined to deliver a very very well written and structured speech. Did an excellent detailed endorsement of Hillary first, but then a really powerful attack against Trump. And he targeted the lower middle class blue-collar voters in a way, in which he is most believable of all the major speakers. He is (lower) middle class by his background. Very strong (surprisingly strong) speech and nice way for Joe to go. I'd rank this ahead of Bernie but behind Warren.

Tim Kaine. Clearly very nervous, rushed through the first half of the speech, but he then settled down when he had some of the interactive interplay with the audience. I think this speech was well better than how it was delivered but he finished stronger than he started. I think it did a lot to introduce Kaine to the nation and get the still-somewhat-divide party to further unite. What he did very well, was the spontaneous parts especially with the Feel the Burn chant that erupted and he joined. I think he could have done better and in the coming months he will get far more confident and familiar with the speaking. This was mostly nerves that caused him to do just a mediocre performance but he still finished well. I'd rate this between Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders.

Ok, then wow, Obama. Was this the perfect speech, not quite. Was it Obama's best speech, not quite, but may be in his Top 3, and certainly in his Top 5. It was the first time - and only time - he would ever do this, a 'continuation speech' to pass the torch from him to his successor - and as such, it is by far the best such speech ever done. Was it the best speech of the Convention, not quite. Just a little too long, I give the tighter more perfect pure speech and delivery to Michelle but this is a VERY close second. What this speech did, however, was hit all three points I said he'd have to do - out of the park - BUT... he added a fourth part (which contributed to its length and the construction having that 'interruption point'.

The three things I said he'd have to do (or should do, not necessarily 'have to') was to secure his legacy, to attack Trump AND to endorse Hillary. Obama did these three all superbly, better on each of them than any other individual speech alone, excepting for Bill Clinton's long love letter to his wife. The attacks on Trump were particularly devastating because of how Obama constructed them through his theme of pure patriotism, a quest for a better more inclusive and more fair nation. He hit a perfectly devastating point with 'we don't want to be ruled' and then.. as the one last riff on the line everyone in the room was dying to get to yell once more - his variation on the theme was 'not Yes I can, but yes WE can'. If Obama had ended the speech there, about 30 minutes in, this would have been perfection as a speech on those three themes.

Yet Obama went further. He knew he was the Rolling Stones playing to adoring fans, and they will never yell him to get off the stage, if after 'I Can't Get No, Satisfaction' he decides to also play Brown Sugar. And no TV network will turn the cameras off the President doing 40 minutes instead of 30 minutes, even as they were more than half an hour late into the broadcast schedule time. After all, Trump went over by more and spoke for an hour and 15 minutes. So Obama 'cheated' a bit.

He threw an additional piece. A magnificent part, that fit perfectly into his themes and woven into the thread that worked so well also into the continuation topic. He did a motivational speech element to the end - that you have to join and fight. That it was you - the Democrats in that room, and the voters back home, who had given Obama his inspiration, and he hoped that he had managed to inspire them at times (huge huge huge response of course). And then that he wanted them to go do the same for Hillary. while this spoils in some way the perfection of the speech starting to have too many themes, it might detract from a 'perfect' speech a tiny fraction of a score. So little it might fall from a perfect 10.0 to a 9.7 or so.. A tiny price to pay - for the huge payoff. This party - those at the Convention - are totally unified, and totally motivated, and hungry and eager to go fight for Hillary.

So let me put it this way. Bill Clinton showed a clever way to weave story-telling into the 'spouce's speech'. Michelle Obama showed a perfect political upbeat, patriotic speech of hope and fight. But Barack Obama's speech is the PROTOTYPE perfect continuation speech for those politicians who may face this situation. This is EXACTLY how you do it.

What a powerful, emotional and rational, hopeful yet practical speech. How brilliantly woven in with the themes, the quotations, the linkages to the audience (he made a point to get to touch Bill Clinton, Bernie, Tim Kaine and Joe Biden in the speech - including of course the obvious two ladies he would have to, Michelle and Hillary). I said I'd love to see Yes We Can used in some way, and he did, at just the hint - its like Prince might do at times in his concerts, playing just a riff of a given hit song, without getting into that song because he had so many other songs he needed to get to, but enough that fans would get a bit of a taste of something they all love.

The demolition of Trump. Yes, Michael Bloomberg did a devastating attack on him before, as did Elizabeth Warren, as did Al Franken, as did Tim Kaine, as did Joe Biden. But Obama. Of course he would do it via patriotism and the core of what it takes to be an American. In the end the way Hillary then walked onto the stage, beaming, and the two hugging each other, broad smiles, that was the perfect end to his farewell speech. Handing the torch. And the repeated screams from the room all throughout the speech of 'four more years' were very sincere. As the CNN commentators mentioned, they will be missing this President.

Not Obama's absolute best speech but so close, it doesn't matter. Not the Convention's best speech but so close, it doesn't matter. And better than anything at the Republican Convention of 2016 or the Republican Convention of 2012 and better even than anything in the 2012 Democratic Convention. One for the ages. One of Obama's best speeches ever.

Chelsea. Purely a family member's endorsement speech. Good speech, emotional, and as she's lived in the public limelight of course the audience could identify well with that story. The ending on the grandmother's message was nice touch. Very poised speech, excellent delivery, clearly a pro speaker's daughter who was superbly prepared and coached for this. She could have done more (or at least, it left the impression that she had this easily covered and could have done more, I don't mean she was just mailing it in). Chelsea felt like she was talking to her family or group that she knew intimately well and wasn't the least bit intimidated or nervous. Solid job. Not a superb speech but very good. I'd rank it between Joe Biden and Tim Kaine.

Then Hillary's acceptance speech. A good start that grew very strong towards its end. She was in superb mood, upbeat and smiling. Threw a nice amount of jokes and kept smiling. A remarkable contrast to Trump's dark speech and well written to make fun of him and his speech. Plenty of policy wonk elements of what she'd do, but the powerful parts of a pro speech where she reached out to all best speakers and her main partners out of the speech, including two mentions of both Bernie and Tim Kaine.

Very good practical speech keeping it positive. Nice historical references, good touches to Republicans, and good reaches to Bernistas. Very well delivered, clearly Hillary's best speech ever. She had practised this well, it was written very well, it brought in her main themes and had lots of references also to other speakers and visitors to the Convention. As a vehicle for reaching voters and supporters, this was VERY well constructed to be the culmination of a great 4 day Convention, and to reach out to the various groups and constituencies that form the Democratic tent. I'd rank this speech below Bill Clinton's (but not by much) and ahead of Elizabeth Warren's.

So if I remember correctly (of how I graded them) the best speech was Michelle Obama, then Barack Obama, then Cory Booker, then Bill Clinton, then Hillary Clinton, Elizabeth Warren, then Joe Biden, then Chelsea Clinton, then Tim Kaine, then Bernie Sanders.

A Boring Biden - Tim Kaine as VP Pick Will Deliver Virginia Plus adds Remarkable Contrast, as an Issues Veep (UPDATED)

Now we know the tickets. Hillary has picked Tim Kaine the Senator and former Governor from Virginia as her VP choice. A safe but boring pick. An utterly competent VP and a centrist moderate Democrat. Lets dig in to what this means to the election.


UPDATE - revision on the bottom added right after the Intro event in Florida


First off, to readers of this blog, obviously I was wrong. I predicted back in 2014 that Hillary would pick Julian Castro the Secretary of Housing and Urban Development from Texas, as the first-ever Hispanic for Vice President. And we know he was in the mix and considered but clearly I was wrong, Hillary picked Kaine. So I am sorry, this is the first major guess I made in 2014 that has gone wrong (and against that, please consider that I predicted among other things that Hillary would crush the ‘generic’ Republican whoever it would be, with fund-raising; that Hillary would hug President Obama in the campaign - something John McCain did not do with W Bush and Al Gore did not do with Bill Clinton, so its not a normal thing all candidates do; and I predicted Obama’s popularity would recover and be above water - as it has, obviously - but when I predicted that in 2014, his popularity was way under water). Now, that being said, yes on this one point, I was wrong. But now onto Tim Kaine. An excellent choice yes.

First off, he’s ready to be President ‘on Day 1’ and is VERY competent and experienced, has very competent governing experience with an excellent record of a diverse large state; and has the competence also on international side from his duties in the Senate sitting on two committees relating to national security (what Trump’s VP, Mike Pence lacks totally). So Hillary can safely say, judge us by our actions. Trump picked a VP so bad, even Trump can’t remember his name when introducing him. But Hillary’s pick is instantly accepted everywhere as one of the most competent politicians on either side of the aisle.

He is gosh, plain vanilla boring. The one speech I saw him together on the stump with Hillary, he was repeating himself on a very poorly written speech and he was getting only a mild response from a strongly partisan crowd. BUT these are things that you can improve with good speech-writing and good speech-coaching (see Hillary herself) and if you want inspirational speeches, the Hillary campaign has the two best political speakers alive of our lives - Barack Obama and Bill Clinton. Arguably Elizabeth Warren is in their class. The last Republican speaker to deliver speeches so widely loved was Ronald Reagan long since departed. Inspiration, that the Democrats have in spades and many voters will have doubts about electing another ‘hope’ candidate of great oratory, they may want far more a ‘doer’ than a ‘talker’. And hence, two boring technocrats on Hillary’s ticket. But people who got things done.

Kaine is not at the liberal wing of the Democratic party like say Warren or Cory Booker, and the Bernie Sanders supporters will be initially quite disappointed. But I think when they hear the story, tomorrow Saturday when Hillary introduces Kaine, and then at the Convention, I think most ‘progressives’ will be won over, that this is a moderate, fair-minded ELECTABLE candidate, who has TRULY stood up when it counted, and VOLUNTEERED when it mattered. So on issues, he is pro-abortion, he is for raising taxes on the richest, he is for reasonable gun control (Bernie was not!), he is for Planned Parenthood, he is for environmental protections etc. He is VERY far the person they will like, and with this pick, Hillary is putting her money where her mouth is, she shows she is willing to fight for these kinds of issues. But Kaine is a moderate, one of the areas he differs with the ‘Socialist wing’ of the Democrats is - like Bill Clinton and Hillary herself (and Obama) - on trade. He is for the TPP the Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade deal that is now being ratified in the various countries. This is something the liberals hate about him. Too moderate. Ok, I can understand that, but it would be suicidal for Hillary to go FURTHER LEFT in her campaign. You pivot to the middle and this is a VERY smart pivot.

So on a few specifics. Kaine is a hunter and gun-owner but he enacted tougher anti-gun laws in Virginia, a battleground state with a lot of hunters. Furthermore, Virginia is the home and HQ of the NRA (National Rifle Association the most powerful gun lobby). The NRA utterly hates Kaine and give him an F rating. This should immediately get some on the left to accept Kaine, gosh, he is that willing to fight the good causes and better than some futile talk, he passed anti-gun laws in Virginia? This guy does get things done. Serious, meaningful, useful, progressive things done. And against VERY strong opposition, at the very home of the NRA.

Then I remember being disappointed when hearing Kaine do his speech in a joint event with Hillary a few weeks ago. How ‘Al Gorishly’ boring and such bad delivery and poor timing on his one joke he kept repeating etc. But I didn’t remember who Kaine is. Now that I looked into him a little bit, I was instantly reminded of his ‘breakout’ speech at the 2008 Democratic Convention. It was the one where he switched into speaking Spanish for a while. I LOVED that speech. Its the same guy. If you let the professionals help him, he can do a good speech and then toss in the Spanish, he will do well with the Hispanics. Not as a ‘late convert’ - anyone, ANYONE who watched that Convention remember the one guy who suddenly started to speak Spanish, fluently, and was a totally plain-vanilla white guy. That is the kind of outreach that the Democrats had been doing and he’s certainly already known and a friend to the Hispanic community today. He doesn’t have to start on that journey.

Which then brings up the other even more incredible tidbit that I didn’t know but now discovered. Kaine is the first Senator to deliver a whole speech on the Senate floor in Spanish. If the Hispanics can’t have Castro or Perez or some other Hispanic on the VP slot, this is a VERY good substitute, if they had to accept some white guy. I do not know what his ratings are among Hispanics, but I would guess he already has a positive rating there and once the Hispanics figure out, this guy has fought for them for a decade already, he’s not a bad gringo at all..

Kaine won’t bring a surge of Hispanic voters in the way that probaby Castro or some other Hispanic could have, but he will not be ‘hated’ by the Hispanics either, where perhaps ‘another’ black ahead of them (Cory Booker) might have suppressed some Hispanic enthusiasm. But talking about those blacks. Kaine has a remarkable coincidence in his background that seems to make him perfect for the year 2016. Kaine started his political career in Virginia by campaigning and then fighting for low cost housing and against discrimination by slumlords. And would you know it, the first time Trump was in the news, was the same time - and Trump was of course a slum landlord in New York who was convicted and fined massively for his discriminatory slum lord behavior, in particular against blacks. So Kaine raises a great argument about yet another repugnant side of Trump and Kaine is PERFECTLY credible for arguing that, because Kaine was fighting for the poor on the opposite side of that battle against the rich. This will endear Kaine to most progressive-hearted voters. And it will expose a FAR TOO MUCH ignored part of Trump’s past and reinforce the narrative that Trump sounds like a racist now, because he has been a racist all his life. And furthermore that his bullshit of being a ‘blue collar Billionaire’ is mere propaganda. He’s a CONVICTED racist slum landlord bastard.

Kaine is a moderate, he will not scare away Republicans. Two moderate Democrats, Hillary and Kaine, both VERY VERY competent on foreign policy, an area dear to the hearts of many moderate Republicans. And against a ticket where Trump talks about breaking up NATO, abandoning South Korea, extorting Saudi Arabia and arming Japan with nukes. Plus admiring Putin, Kim Jong Un and Assad.

Tim Kaine is a VERY competent manager. He got the Virginia economy to grow while the world was going into recession. That will play VERY well with the argument that Democrats are the sensible money party while Trump is selling Reagan’s Trickle-Down voodoo economics, but turbocharged. Kaine sits PERFECTLY in a world where Hillary points to the last time the economy was driven to a ditch, by Reagan-Bush 1, then recovered and grew under Bill Clinton then driven to an even deeper ditch by W Bush-Cheney and now fought back to modest growth by Obama. What moderate Democrats do, is sensible fiscal policy and they run good economies, Trump’s policies will destroy jobs and cause worldwide economic disaster. Excellent choice as VP to carry that message, and with deeds, not just words.

Kaine is also a successful campaigner, hasn’t lost an election yet, and doing this in a purple state where every race is tough. He is highly popular back home in Virginia and admired around the Democratic circles.

Two very telling personal details will be noticed, and to me, these tell about the character of this man. First, the more practical but for me, very personal side. Tim Kaine enacted the first law in any state forbidding smoking indoors. He is one of the people who really put his political life into that battle, against the cigarette lobby. I have deep respect for that and so will many who had family members who died out of smoking related illnesses. And would you know it, on the other side, the VP choice Mike Pence is one of those truly despicable politicians who took money from the cigarette lobby to then argue that cigarettes do not kill. Yes, Pence was still claiming that cigarettes are healthy !! And Kaine was on the opposite side, where the obvious medical evidence already was conclusive. This tells us much about Kaine (and about Pence).

But then one aspect that will endear Kaine to progressives and especially to religious voters. Tim Kaine is a Catholic (but he is pro-choice) but not just a Sunday-show-pretend Christian. He really did it. Gosh, he volunteered early in his career to serve as a missionary and lived in Honduras among the poor. This is a genuinely good man, who had put the needs of the poor and helpless and weak, against the powers of the strong, the rich and the powerful.

If you want to use the selection of VP as the first true test, of what is the potential President really going to do, then compare Trump and Hillary. Trump picked Mike Pence, and Trump admitted, he was not Trump’s first choice (we know it wasn’t even his 12th, at the very best, it was his 13th choice) and Trump picked a guy who stands on opposite sides of at least half a dozen major issues where Pence literally has said this is totally the wrong thing, what Trump has been doing or saying. And Trump says, to Pence's face, on TV a interview - that it doesn’t matter. Trump literally says about Pence's opinions that he is irrelevant. And Trump admits, he picked Pence to heal the party, because the party was torn. And for Trump, Pence was so much an irrelevant person, Trump didn’t even bother to go have dinner with him on the biggest day of Pence’s life, but left Pence alone in New York City, to take his family out to have dinner at a local Chico’s. And yes, we know, the night AFTER he had picked Pence, Trump was saying on TV that he had not made his ‘final final’ decision. Trump picked an irrelevant place-holder person who will have no say in his administration, and Trump even ADMITS this, not his first choice, was selected only to get some conservatives to buy into the Trump ticket Trump is in effect telling Republican voters - I know you know I am lying, but lets pretend I like and respect what Mike Pence says and stands for; I do not, he will be ignored: vote for ME, I am the greatest!

Then consider Hillary. Total, TOTAL opposite. She picks one of the most competent and experienced VPs ever. Its a person fully competent in governing and in legislation, and has both domestic and foreign policy experience. Hillary picks a moderate (the right pivot to win) but a candidate who can appeal to many areas of not just Independents and undecided voters, but even moderate Republicans via his Catholic and clearly very deeply convicted religious actions, not just words; his personal gun experience as a hunter (so any anti-gun laws will be ‘reasonable’ and will not come to confiscate your guns as the NRA will scream and yell); and the needed foreign policy competence. When Hillary says she will fight for you, and that she’s done it her whole life, gosh so has Tim Kaine. Fought for the little guy and the oppressed guy and the minority and the Hispanic haha (did you spot that, he was a missionary in Honduras!!). They say that Kaine is Obama’s favorite Senator. That will say a lot to Democrats, if the Senate had more Tim Kaines, then more of Obama’s true intentions would have passed, but now were obstructed by the Republicans for 8 years.

This is a VERY VERY strong pick. It will essentially guarantee Hillary wins Virginia. Virginia is a battleground state (Indiana where Mike Pence is the unpopular Governor, is not a battleground state, the Republicans in most years win Indiana easily; even a 10 point landslide will not flip Indiana to the Democrats). Kaine is a very VERY strong campaigner and like Hillary mentioned, he hasn’t lost an election in his life. (Hillary also agrees Kaine is boring).

If we think of the electoral college map, this pick takes Virginia off the table. Nate Silver at 538 blog calculated that the home-state VP pick typically adds 2 points of the winning margin in that state, and no other benefit nationwide; Hillary was already slightly ahead in Virginia before this, so now Kaine puts VA out of reach for Trump. What does that do for the rest of the race? It means Trump cannot win by any combination of winning only 3 of the states that were battlegrounds in 2012, that Romney lost. Even if we give Trump Florida and Ohio, any other battleground state alone is not enough. Trump needs Florida and Ohio and 2 of the others that Obama carried (Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Nevada, Wisconsin). Note that before the Kaine pick, Hillary is ahead in all RCP polling averages in all of these battlegrounds today. Or else, Trump has to have a miracle showing taking a larger state that was not a battleground in 2012 like Michigan, Pennsylvania or New York - states Trump has talked about and arguably Pennsylvania this year is in play. But Virginia is a vital pick because it forced Trump to have to win both Florida and Ohio, plus either two more battleground states or Pennsylvania, and in all those Hillary has a lead currently. But Hillary also has modest leads in a few states that Obama lost like Arizona and North Carolina which then makes it far far harder for Trump to find any map that delivers for him, once Virginia is off the table for him.

I do assume that early on, Trump-Pence will not give up on Virginia. But by late September or October, he will pull his troops and TV ad spending out of Virginia, admitting that is a lost cause. It will be because of Tim Kaine. He will deliver his home state, rather easily to Hillary.

Now baggage? I do not see any initially (where much was obvious with Mike Pence right at the start). There always are some issues that arise over time but this seems to be a genuinely good guy, who really did the work in the trenches in his past and has stood on the good side of the major fights all through his life. As a choice, if Hillary wants to signal to the nation that she will have totally competent respectable and honorable people in her Cabinet, this is a magnificent start. Hispanics, their hopes were raised and now crushed but even for a gringo, this is about as good as they come and a mile above and ahead of what the other side has to offer. Will this produce a bounce for Hillary, I think thats a safe bet. Not a huge one, but it will stomp on what modest bounce was supposed to come from Trump's Convention (by the way, that Trump himself is already stomping on, by starting fresh fights with the reluctant rebels of his party, now with renewed fights with Ted Cruz, exactly the morning after his Convention ended and seemed to be rather unified). BUT.. over time... over time this Tim Kaine selection will become an ever better choice, because of a deep resume of a lifetime of great achievements which will play well to voters, when contrasting the clowns on the Republican side. And as to a Veep in office, I think its safe to say, Hillary can safely give Kaine plenty of responsibility starting with the gun lobby and passing some sensible gun reforms.

As to my forecast. I had factored in a wave of Hispanic support coming in with a Hispanic VP pick which Hillary had clearly been considering (among her finalists Castro, Perez etc) but now that this is not the case, my MODEL is wrong. It has over-estimated a Hispanic wave. In some states like Nevada, New Mexico, Florida, Colorado, Arizona (and Texas) my model is now off. I will recalculate it but my gut feeling on playing with the numbers says the general election outcome would be down 1.5% roughly, so between 1 and 2 points of the final outcome. Instead of what I last published as a 20% landslide (assuming Castro and Hispanic wave on top of historic Female voter surge etc) the model looks like an 18% landslide instead. This is still in the scale of Mondale's loss in 1984. Note that we have OTHER factors that have to be taken in (Trump catastrophic campaign and lousy VP choice etc) and MOST OF ALL my model in March assumed a 2-way race and now we have a 3 or 4-way race, which will change the dynamics quite a lot. so there are OTHER factors I ALSO have to recalculate since my last model update in March. I will be doing that this coming week. But those who are 'following the math at home' yes, we need to downgrade the model by about 2 points in the final election compared to the assumptions I had in March. Still heading to November, Hillary is safely headed to a landslide epic victory so big, it will flip not just the Senate but also the House. This VP choice does not change that forecast but her margin is now slightly less. I will do the full math with you in coming days, don't worry. You'll have a new model effective end-of-July which incorporates both VP choices.


UPDATE - immediately after the Miami event. Wow. This is NOT a boring guy! He is a good speaker (already) and with pro coaching and good speech-writing and experience, he is going to be VERY good. He seems to be eager to learn and grow (as a public speaker) and that means, he could even grow to be excellent (see how far Warren grew from her start in the Senate). So please remove the term 'boring' in this blog. I was mistaken. Kaine is NOT boring. He is very strong and is able to sell a good speech. He had a REPUTATION of being boring - no, he is NOT boring. (and PS - obviously THIS is how you do a Veep intro, perfect, 10 out of 10, home run event. Total perfection, She introduces him, he then admires her, and he does most of the talking. THIS is how you do it, compare to Trump who did it of course all wrong)

Best of Twitter Jokes around Hashtag: You Might Be a Republican - a hundred fresh jokes about Republicans

We had a Twitter hashtag game around the theme of 'You might be a Republican if...' under the hashtag #YouMightBeARepublican. (I did not invent that hashtag, it already had plenty of good jokes in it long before the Convention). On the second night of the Republican Convention for 8 hours, we had a very strongly performing hashtag and at times jokes came in so fast, I literally did not have time to read them all while more had come in. Note for this count, I took them a day later, and stopped looking at newer jokes that came in. Furthermore, I stayed true to Twitter, keeping only 'textual' jokes so I ignored the visual ones with pictures (which sometimes may have pictures used without permission). So these are only the 'pure' jokes in short 118 characters. So they also are very tight. The hashtag is of course still on Twitter and more jokes have come in, and you can enjoy the top jokes which are highlighted by Twitter's engine at this link: Hashtag You Might Be a Republican top Tweets. and if you want to see all the jokes for #YouMightBeARepublican, they are here under the link 'Live'


TOP 20 JOKES IN ORDER OF THEIR POPULARITY TO FINISH ON THE STRONGEST:

 

Alexandra ‏@AlexandraAimee 

Believe in imprisoning your political opponents because you can't beat them based on merit and ideas? #YouMightBeARepublican

50 = 14 retweets 36 likes

 

Sara ‏@whynotsara

If you claim that all lives matter, but conveniently exclude blacks, Muslims, women, gays, the disabled, etc. #YouMightBeARepublican

51 = 19 retweets 29 likes (+1 retweets 2 likes*)

 

Tomi Ahonen ‏@tomiahonen 

So if you think guns should be available to all, but toilets should be severely policed, yes #YouMightBeARepublican

52 = 24 retweets 28 likes

 

Mr. Jameson Neat ‏@MrJamesonNeat

#YouMightBeARepublican if you're dirt poor but you constantly complain about financially supporting minorities

53 = 16 retweets 37 likes

 

Ashley Renee ‏@ashrenee9109

#YouMightBeARepublican if you think this nation was founded on Christianity even though the founding fathers promoted a secular government.

54 = 27 retweets 37 likes

 

 

Jesse LaGreca ‏@JesseLaGreca 

Are you white? Feeling resentful lately? Ask your doctor if turning off Fox News is right for you #YouMightBeARepublican

56 = 14 retweets 32 likes (+2 retweets 8 likes*)

 

Luv USA ‏@care4democracy

#YouMightBeARepublican you claim to be a Christian, but think lying is OK as long as it's for the good of the Party.

56 = 22 retweets 34 likes

 

 

Tokyo_Jon ‏@tokyo_jon

Truly believe someone married three times and wants to date his own daughter represents good "family values."

#YouMightBeARepublican

57 = 19 retweets 38 likes

 

 

Dawna ‏@onecaliberal

#YouMightBeARepublican if you're saying Hillary isn't qualified but plan on voting for a hateful racist man devoid of any policy.

59 = 28 retweets 31 likes

 

Jesse LaGreca ‏@JesseLaGreca

Are you more angry at brown people than racist billionaires?#YouMightBeARepublican

60 = 21 retweets 39 likes

 

 

angerAngel ‏@Dangerangel

If you think Hillary's email scandal should put her in jail, but give a pass to Bush and Rove #YouMightBeaRepublican

60 = 30 retweets 30 likes

 

 

Pat Lee ‏@pat_lee

#YouMightBeARepublican If you think a reality-TV con-man with anger issues & his plagiarist, stripper wife should be in the White House.

63 = 24 retweets 39 likes

 

 

Walt Kowalski ‏@getoffmylawn80

#youmightbearepublican if you celebrate ignorance like .@realDonaldTrump

70 = 35 retweets 35 likes

 

 

Sara ‏@whynotsara 

If you claim to love Jesus, but don't practice any of his teachings,  #YouMightBeARepublican

72 = 27 retweets 45 likes

 

Laura ‏@SheWhoVotes

#YouMightBeARepublican (or a Trump) if you think gold sharpies are the height of luxury.

80 = 27 retweets 53 likes

 

(((Bones))) ‏@HappyOldSoul

If you believe a Cheetos colored 70 yr old con man with no plan, can make everything all better for you. #YouMightBeARepublican

83 = 39 retweets 44 likes

 

 

Tomi Ahonen ‏@tomiahonen

If you demanded Obama to show a birth certificate but you won't show your tax returns #YouMightBeARepublican #MakeDonaldDrumpfAgain

89 = 41 retweets 48 likes

 

 

Kamgirl ‏@Kamgirl47

#YouMightBeARepublican. If you think FOX is a news channel.

120 = 47 retweets 73 likes

 

Tomi Ahonen ‏@tomiahonen

If you thought Dr Ben Carson made sense today, or any day, #YouMightBeARepublican

126 = 38 retweets 88 likes

 

WheezyDemocrat ‏@Nannie2my5

#YouMightBeARepublican if you believe that repeating a lie long enough and loud enough will somehow make it true.

135 = 61 retweets 74 likes

 

MORE JOKES THAT GOT MORE THAN 10 LIKES AND RETWEETS:
(these are in chronological order, for that 8 hour period that the hashtag game was up)

miguel ‏@whiskeyjapones

#YouMightBeARepublican if you believe a women's right to choose is more dangerous than someone on the no-fly list with an AK-47

Mike Vanriel ‏@MikeVanriel2

#YouMightBeARepublican If you believe Black Lives Matter movement is violent and deadly but the KKK and Bundy Clan are a peaceful group.

 

(((Beelzebabushka))) ‏@viciousbabushka

#YouMightBeARepublican if you never cared about the national debt until 2009 #tcot #UniteBlue

 

Vanilla Latte Gurl ‏@GurlVanilla

#YouMightBeARepublican if you vilify Hillary for standing by her man while praising Anna Duggar for doing the same 🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄

Monica Roberts ‏@TransGriot

#YouMightBeARepublican If you think murders of cops should be a hate crime but the murders of trans people aren't

 

Vanilla Latte Gurl ‏@GurlVanilla

#YouMightBeARepublican if you derided @POTUS for being a community organizer but think nothing of Trump being a reality show fraud 🙄

 

Monica Roberts ‏@TransGriot

#YouMightBeARepublican if you think large numbers of non white people exercising their right to vote in an election is 'voter fraud'

 

Monica Roberts ‏@TransGriot

#YouMightBeARepublican if you think BlackLivesMatter is a terrorist organization but the Klan supporters of Trump aren't

 

Tomi Ahonen ‏@tomiahonen 

If your governing instinct about the Zika virus is: lets take a long summer vacation, #YouMightBeARepublican

 

Tomi Ahonen ‏@tomiahonen

if a Tunisian deranged lunatic kills 84 in France, and you feel the urge to attack Syria #YouMightBeARepublican #MakeDonaldDrumpfAgain

 

Rama Dey-Rao ‏@ramadeyrao

#youmightbearepublican if you are sitting in the closet while railing and ranting against LGBTQ issues!

 

MissYou ‏@NeenerKat 

#youmightbearepublican If you believe you should show an ID to vote but not to buy an AR-15

MissYou ‏@NeenerKat 

#youmightbearepublican If you believe Jesus helped the poor and sick but think we need to repeal Obamacare and stop helping poor and sick

Cathy Reid ‏@cathyleigh1

#YouMightBeARepublican if you hate big government but want to regulate the uterus of every woman in the country.

MissYou ‏@NeenerKat

#youmightbearepublican if you believe Trump will bring back the jobs he sent overseas to manufacture his clothing line

Dem Texas Girls ‏@TexDem16

If your knuckles drag the floor... #YouMightBeARepublican

Dem Texas Girls ‏@TexDem16

If facts scare you... #YouMightBeARepublican

Brenda McCorkle ‏@brendamccorkle

@TexDem16 If your favorite evening wear is a white sheet and hood, #YouMightBeARepublican

Tomi Ahonen ‏@tomiahonen

if you think the Golden Gate Bridge, Statue of Liberty, Hollywood and Liberty Bell are not in 'real America' #YouMightBeARepublican

 

Dem Texas Girls ‏@TexDem16

If your favorite channel is Faux News #YouMightBeARepublican

 

Alby the Zee ‏@albyselkie

#YouMightBeARepublican if you feel threatened by equal rights.

Dem Texas Girls ‏@TexDem16

If you think words like "radical" are magic words that make the bad guys go poof! #YouMightBeARepublican

Baze ‏@ProudLiberal11 

If you think guns "save lives" but "people kill people"

#YouMightBeaRepublican

 

Dem Texas Girls ‏@TexDem16

If the only way you can motivate someone is through fear #YouMightBeARepublican

 

Sara ‏@whynotsara

If you believe in a chicken in every pot and an AR-15 in every home #YouMightBeARepublican

 

BlueIsTheColor ‏@LeftofLondon 

If you think ethics is a county in New Jersey #youmightbeaRepublican

Baze ‏@ProudLiberal11

If you think Obamacare is a failure but the Iraq war was a success

#YouMightBeaRepublican

 

Laura 4 Hillary 2016 ‏@Myvote4hillyes

If you used your position (NJ gov) to closed a bridge and caused chaos? #Youmightbearepublican

Laura 4 Hillary 2016 ‏@Myvote4hillyes

If you pray to God then cheat on your 1st wife with your second wife? #Youmightbearepublican

Dem Texas Girls ‏@TexDem16 

If you really believed that "hanging chad" story #YouMightBeARepublican

Dem Texas Girls ‏@TexDem16 

If you can only recognize a cross if it's on fire 🔥 #YouMightBeARepublican

Tomi Ahonen ‏@tomiahonen 

If your idea of a safe toy for pre-school kids is.. a loaded gun #YouMightBeARepublican

Jesse LaGreca ‏@JesseLaGreca

Is all of Twitter laughing at you?  #YouMightBeARepublican

Laura 4 Hillary 2016 ‏@Myvote4hillyes

If your house has wheels but the 5 cars on your yard don't? #Youmightbearepublican

 

Jesse LaGreca ‏@JesseLaGreca

Does evolution confuse you?  #YouMightBeARepublican

 

Laura 4 Hillary 2016 ‏@Myvote4hillyes

If you claim to be a billionaire but refuse to release your taxes? #youmightbearepublican

 

Tomi Ahonen ‏@tomiahonen 

If you felt it vital for POTUS to show his LONG FORM birth cert, yet u think its perfectly ok not to show your taxes #YouMightBeARepublican

 

Bye Bye Bernie ‏@Stiljustme

#youmightbearepublican if you talk about #TraditionalFamilyValues after cheating on two wives. #RNCinCLE

 

Jesse LaGreca ‏@JesseLaGreca

Do you like the Duck Dynasty reality TV guy more than the black President who saved your sorry white ass? #YouMightBeARepublican

Tomi Ahonen ‏@tomiahonen

#YouMightBeARepublican if FLOTUS wearing a sleeveless dress is too pornographic but Melania Trump 'modeling' pictures are 'presidential'

Mari For Hillary ‏@Marilunabeli

#YouMightBeARepublican if you never learned from your father how to respect the office of the President even if you don't care for the man.

Mari For Hillary ‏@Marilunabeli

#YouMightBeARepublican if, when children die in gun violence, you hug your own ... guns ... a little more closely that night.

Mari For Hillary ‏@Marilunabeli

#YouMightBeARepublican if you hate people you don't even know.

ChristineV ‏@GhostofFrid 

#YouMightBeARepublican if you think the pyramids were grain silos.

Steve Epstein ‏@sbepstein 

If 2 nights 2 speeches, 2 family members, 2 plagiarists is OK. #YouMightBeARepublican

Lynne Marie ‏@ArtHauntsMe

Do you call people sinners while you teach your children to hate anything that isn't white?  #YouMightBeARepublican

Lynne Marie ‏@ArtHauntsMe 

Do you brag that you know God's will when it comes to how others should live?  #YouMightBeARepublican

Tomi Ahonen ‏@tomiahonen 

If you think the most deceitful politician in history 'tells it like it is' #YouMightBeARepublican

 

RSD ‏@DSR_iscool2 

#YouMightBeARepublican If you start believing in what Fox News says.

Eric Wolfson ‏@EricWolfson

#YouMightBeARepublican if you think that gays aren't people, corporations are people, & guns don't kill people.

Lynne Marie ‏@ArtHauntsMe

You tell women who are being raped they should just accept God's will and get through it?  #YouMightBeARepublican

Mr. B ‏@OKItWasMe1 

If you cut school spending and increase support for private prisons #YouMightBeARepublican

 

Joseph ‏@josephnyc74

#YouMightBeARepublican when u believe white heterosexual men are suffering in this country

Adam Christie ‏@Adamtheactivist

#YouMightBeARepublican What does that even mean today? Seriously? Can a Republican tell me what good has the GOP done in the last 50 years?

EndOfThread ‏@bmetzmetz

If you arm yourself to protect against the government, yet vote to strengthen their military might, #YouMightBeARepublican

EndOfThread ‏@bmetzmetz

When you don't realize that an armed populace leads to a militarized police force...  #YouMightBeARepublican

 

Rachel ‏@AKramseyRR

#YouMightBeARepublican  If you voted against LGBTQ rights & then were arrested for soliciting gay sex in an airport bathroom.

Adam Christie ‏@Adamtheactivist

#YouMightBeARepublican If you still think that there was WMDS in Iraq. #28pages reveals a lot. They lied, they died, for OIL.

Alex Rios ‏@alexrioscomedy

#YouMightBeARepublican

1) Invade their land

2) Make them leave

3) Tell them they can come back as long as they do it "legally"

Shari ToldYaSo ‏@ShazBooty714

#YouMightBeARepublican if your party chose a nominee who has yet to say HOW he'll do ANYTHING, and he's too crooked to #ReleaseHisTaxes

Louie ‏@Ajblivits 

#YouMightBeARepublican If you're the Gov of NJ and your senior staff appointees are pleading guilty to corruption. #georgewashingtonbridge

FireBone ‏@Fisherman1954

#YouMightBeARepublican  If you believe $65 worth of food stamps is more harmful than a two week drunk written off as a business expense.

WheezyDemocrat ‏@Nannie2my5 

#YouMightBeARepublican if your default explanation is a conspiracy theory.

 

Mr. B ‏@OKItWasMe1

If you think you know what's best for women #YouMightBeARepublican

 

Pat Lee ‏@pat_lee 

#YouMightBeARepublican If you feel comforted that Trump went on a televised Presidential debate to talk up the size of his dick. #TinyHands

 

RicanInBoston ‏@RicanInBoston

When you stand for Family Values but you're on your 3rd marriage.

#YouMightBeARepublican

 

RicanInBoston ‏@RicanInBoston 

If your only news source is @FoxNews #YouMightBeARepublican

 

Pat Lee ‏@pat_lee 

#YouMightBeARepublican If you think a guy who managed to bankrupt numerous casinos should be in charge of the US economy.

 

Luv USA ‏@care4democracy 

#YouMightBeARepublican if ur only chance to get elected is taking advantage of stupid ppl, FOX lies, & cheating. (Voter ID & gerrymandering)

RicanInBoston ‏@RicanInBoston

If yelling the loudest is your only defense #YouMightBeARepublican

 

Peter Jaques Jr ‏@peterjaques04

#YouMightBeARepublican If u see this as threat confirmin what we'v known since Nixon You're complacent/apart of hate

Luv USA ‏@care4democracy

#YouMightBeARepublican if you think a woman is smart enough to raise the children, but not capable of making her own health decisions.

Lynne Marie ‏@ArtHauntsMe

Your sons look like they just buried a body #YouMightBeARepublican

 

Pat Lee ‏@pat_lee 

#YouMightBeARepublican If you claim to love Jesus, yet support a man who directly preyed on the poor and vulnerable.

 

Luv USA ‏@care4democracy

#YouMightBeARepublican if you often use the words: constitional, freedom, liberty, patriot, but daily  prove you have no clue what they mean

 

D'establishment ‏@deeperfectgem

#YouMightBeARepublican If you watch #FoxNews and don't think!

 

hillary2016 ‏@ManMet80 

#YouMightBeARepublican if you belong to the only political party in the world that doesn't believe climate change is real and man made

Luv USA ‏@care4democracy

#YouMightBeARepublican if you think it's okay to deny folk's rights if they're not voting for you...or they're female, brown, LGBTQ, poor.

FINAL WORDS

I laughed for eight hours in a row.. my belly literally ached after that hashtag game. My thanks to all who wrote (there are probably a thousand great jokes on that hashtag now) and congrats to all.

If you need a joke about a Republican or conservative, this is now a good depository of kind of 'generic' jokes, please do recognize the original author of the joke if you borrow it.

If you would like to see some of my weird sense of humor, here is a link to my piece on the anticipated speaker lineup before the Republican Convention and here is my preview of the 2016 Republican Nomination race from last year, looking at the 'clown car'. And here is my imagined transcript of the famous Bill Clinton - Donald Trump telephone call a year ago.

If you want my ANALYSIS of the race, here is my view of the Pence VP selection, and my earlier preview of the November race, which I made in March, when we knew it would be Trump vs Hillary. And my analysis of a possible money scam by Trump is here.

This blog usually does tech stories around mobile telecoms etc. There is not much overlap, but I did write what is seen as the 'definitive' article on the power of data-mining systems of the 2012 election, with totally relevant details to this Autumn race: Narwhal vs Orca the battle of Obama & Romney data systems.

Lastly if you're a Hillary supporter and Democrat, you may enjoy this one, on a more humorous side, about who will be the most hated politicians from the GOP side, that I call: The Hateful 8.

The Not Ready for Prime-Time Players: Trump Campaign and Pence - This campaign is not amateur hour or minor league. This is a tragedy, inside a calamity, wrapped inside a catastrophe. Not Trump or Pence, I mean the Campaign.

We have the first view into Donald Trump’s Campaign for the general election, past the primary contest stage. A very revealing episode that tells us reams of insights into this ‘unconventional’ campaign and candidate. We have the first performance of the new Trump 3.0 team and its operation after Campaign Manager Corey Lewandowski was ousted and the power struggle between him and Campaign Chairman Paul Manafort left Manafort alone in charge. We witnessed Trump’s play into the VP selection. It is one of the most-watched single speeches a candidate gets to make in a political race: when the candidate announces the Vice Presidential pick. It is an event every campaign has, always.

The moment the VP is announced is a rare event that is totally in control of the campaign AND its exact timing is well under the control of the campagn as well (a Convention or debate date is set in stone weeks or even months in advance). It is the first formal ‘act’ by the just-selected Presumptive Nominee for President of the USA. The choice is seen as a measure of the thinking process and ‘seriousness’ of the candidate - Sarah Palin’s selection by John McCain while initially beloved by the base, was ultimately damaging to McCain because Palin was ultimately seen as incompetent for the position of Vice President. The selection was seen as bad judgment by the man who wanted to be President. Trump has shown us how his campaign runs and what kind of performance we can expect. To paraphrase Winston Churchill, this campaign is a tragedy, inside a calamity, wrapped inside a catastrophe. It is BY FAR the worst Presidential campaign by either major party in the modern TV era. I do not mean the candidate (which may also be) or the VP, Mike Pence. I mean the CAMPAIGN. Oh, and 'long blog warning' This article runs about 12,000 words, it will take you about an hour to read but its VERY detailed and deep. We have now the first true insight into how potent is Trump's radical 2016 political campaign (or impotent being the operative word).

ONE OF ONLY FIVE EVENTS

A US Presidential nominee for either major party usually clinches the nomination by June (if lucky, earlier. Trump clinched at the end of April.) From that moment in early June, there are 5 months to election day, in early November (this year, November 8). It is the toughest, longest political race in any democracy (and by far also the costliest, and one that employs the most staff as a full-time political campaign for only 5 months). And rightly so, the choice is about who gets to be the most powerful person in the free world. Running the campaign is seen also in some ways as a ‘trial run’ or ‘audition’ for President, many from the campaign will become staff for the winning side’s administration and running a US Presidential campaign has many of the pressures and issues that the job of President will also have. Choices made in the campaign will be scrutinized and always with the lens of ‘is this a Presidential decision’.

In those five months of feverish, high-pressure campaigning, with armies of journalists recording every move, there are only 5 occasions when a candidate gets the chance to create an actual ‘bounce’ in the race - where the candidate can get a significant bump in the polling support and help that side win (pull ahead, or catch up). There are only 5 that most campaigns get. They are the choice of VP; the Convention; and the 3 Presidential debates (the Vice Presidential debates do not produce bounces for the campaign unless something goes horribly wrong to the other side). These will happen in every election (number of debates may vary). And if one side is the sitting incumbent President running for re-election, then that side already has a sitting VP, that one event is denied that side, but they will have so many advantages of incumbency, that doesn’t really matter. But yes, only five such events per campaign.

Now, in most years, there are some ‘outside’ events that happen almost always without warning, that can cause an ‘opportunity’ for a campaign to benefit. For example in 2008, the economy ‘cratered’ and suddenly the election shifted to be all about the economy. then-candidate Barack Obama was able to benefit from that. Or sometimes the other side has a major cock-up, like also in 2008 when suddenly the McCain campaign ‘suspended’ its operation (to try to get out of a debate). This gave Obama the chance to talk about being able to chew gum and walk at the same time, and McCain was mocked and ridiculed and had to end his suspension and return and debate. But these kinds of outside events are beyond the control of campaigns. What campaigns will try to do, is to create some political event to cause a bounce - like say the ‘Swift Boat’ attacks by W Bush against John Kerry in 2004. But out of dozens of such ideas tried by both sides every year, only one or two manage to cause a bump within any decade of elections.

There are ONLY 5 such events that can cause a bump in support, a bounce, that a campaign knows it will ‘get’. And of those five, three are not in their own control. The debates have to be won, for a side to get a bounce. Won clearly, not on technical points. Like Romney did in the first debate of 2012 against a rusty and over-confident (and sleepy) Obama. Furthermore, it doesn’t happen that all 3 debates produce a bounce for the same side. If one candidate is clearly the better debater, by the third debate, the voters have fully baked in the expectation that the better candidate will win again, and thus, no more bounce. The MAXIMUM number of such ‘certain’ bounce-capable events in any election year is only 4, can be 3, and if the candidate can’t win in debates (and at best hope for a tie), then its down to 2.

Trump has been consistently behind Hillary Clinton all year. The Real Clear Polling average of polls has not been in Trump’s favor for any time at all. A few individual ‘outlier’ polls have come out (mostly by right-leaning Rasmussen and Quinnipiac polling outfits which are not among the most accurate pollsters) but Hillary has held a steady solid if not always big, lead in the average of recent polls, testing the race head-to-head, Trump vs Hillary. He is behind, so say almost all published polls, consistently. So say in-state polls and the ‘electoral college’ vote count too. So say betting markets. So say almost all pundits, from left to center to right. Going into the GOP Convention, the RCP polling average says the race is about +4 points in Hillary’s favor. Trump is definitely behind. His opportunities to capitalize on these ‘only 5’ events is more precious than gold. A strong VP choice in a well-run roll-out, can create a solid bounce for Trump, to possibly erase that deficit. VP bounces have been in that kind of scale: several points.

Every single campaign goes through this process. Every single manager in charge of anything in a campaign, who has any experience from past elections, knows this and how important it is, and how rare an opportunity it is. The debates are a gamble, even a great debater like Obama can fumble that one. The Convention, its a compromise and negotiation with the party, where the candidate doesn’t get everything he or she wants while the candidate can get a lot. A lot of the Convention is team-building, the unifying of the party for the big fight ahead. But the VP selection - that is totally in the hands of the candidate. The VP choice is up to the candidate and can be used in many ways. The roll-out is a show the candidate gets to design and time and run in a place of the candidate’s preference (Romney rolled out his VP pick Paul Ryan onboard a battleship).

And I cannot stress this enough. The VP selection is seen as the first act of a potential next President. It will get totally unprecedented scrutiny to that candiate, compared to anything he or she has done before, and it is of dramatically over-sized effect to the rest of the campaign. Most years the PERSON selected as VP is the main focus of the choice, and is used to measure a potential President and his (or now also her) judgment and decision criteria. And in some years when its been a mess (Sarah Palin) then the background of HOW the decision was made, is studied. But never before has the process of picking the VP been such a wreck as Trump had this year, and the announcement event been a total disaster as it was just now. More than that, its such a badly-run ship, that various leaks are already reporting on the internal turmoil that this divide and internally feuding, partly paranoid campaign is in.

Trump did run an unconventional primary race yes. He did win with it. Some have suggested he should continue doing what worked and that Trump could win that way also in the general election. We are now witnessing how that is going, with the first test of the calibre of the race that is for the general election. It is a DIFFERENT race, run under different rules, against different - and stronger - rivals, in a different schedule. All 51 contests will be decided on one day, not spread over as individual voting clusters of a handful of states every week. But while those 51 contests are not ‘visible’ yet, at this time the Hillary campaign is heavily contesting for those, campaigning feverishly in what are called the ‘battleground states’. A handful of states will decide the election, about a dozen states. The rest do not matter. Hillary has TV ads up and is spending most of her time in Florida, Colorado, Virginia etc. Trump was spending a lot of his time in California, West Virginia, Texas and Maine (wrong states, the race is not won in any of those) and Trump has yet not aired any of his own TV ads. He is behind in the race, and he seems to not have even ‘started’ to campaign. While one and a half of the five months of the general election have now been lost. Hillary has a lead in EVERY one of the ‘traditional 9’ of the battleground states. It means if the election was held today, Hillary would beat Trump by winning more states than Obama beat Romney in 2012. Trump cannot afford to waste a rare occasion to get a bump in his support. His VP selection and its announcement.

A BAD VP CANDIDATE...

Mike Pence is a former darling of the Republican party. He was considered a solid VP choice for Romney in 2012. He is a sitting Governor, has a history of being for all the ‘right things’ for Republicans and conservatives. He is a Tea Party member so the very right wing tends to like his positions. He is also very religious and the religious voters agree with his positions. This all seems good, so far. Until we find out the reality today. Pence is a Governor of a ‘red’ state, a state that votes pretty reliably for Republicans. He was headed to a re-election this year. His OWN party in Indiana was afraid their Governor would lose. His popularity is at 40%. He was behind in polling against his Democratic challenger - a sitting Republican Governor in a red state is behind in his home-state polling. Something has gone terribly wrong for Pence.

Pence was on everybody’s early radar from 2012, for running for President in 2016. He was loved by the Tea Party and Pence was one of the early favorites of the richest donors in the Republican party (in fact, in the world) the Koch brothers. In a year that favored very conservative candidates, Pence would have seemed a strong contender. Yet even as a whopping 17 candidates threw their hats in the ring, including such hopeless attempts as Lindsay Graham, George Pataki and Rick Santorum - what about Pence? He knew he could not win even in this incredibly broad field where true miracle candidacies could catch fire (Dr Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina) or actually win (Trump). Yes. Pence was such a doomed candidate that he knew he could not run. His sponsors, the Koch brothers said, don’t even try. This tells us something about how bad a candidate Pence is - for a Republican party - in a year when the party wanted conservatives and right wing candidates, not moderates. How will this un-electable Pence do in a general election with Trump? Worse of course.

The main gripe about Pence is his anti-gay legislation. He passed what is called for propaganda reasons a ‘religious freedom’ law, which is pure legalized hate, an anti-gay law. It gave LEGAL permission for businesses in Indiana to discriminate against gays. The backlash was immediate, huge, national and devastating. It cost Indiana 60 million dollars in lost business and it destroyed Pence’s chances to ever win any election in Indiana. And as this story is told to the general American voters, they will not love Pence either.

Thats before we add things like his lifelong crusades against women. He wants abortion to be illegal even if the woman’s life is at risk (this from a ‘Christian’ man) and of course he wants a woman who is raped, to be legally forced to carry that baby to birth. Nice man eh. He has defuded Planned Parenthood, and passed all sorts of nonsense laws about women. Then he is sponsored by the tobacco lobby. He has had the nerve to claim that cigarette smoking is not deadly (yes, an alleged ‘Christian’ wants to let cigarette companies kill Americans wantonly). He is a climate change denier. He is fully for the coal industry. He’s in the pocket of the NRA (but so are essentially all Republicans). He tried to block Syrian REFUGEES from being brought into his state (he couldn’t block it, but he tried). And on and on and on.

Now, that should all ‘at least’ make him the darling of the Tea Party and religious right wing, right? Except no. He also took Obamacare (strict no-no for right wing Republicans) and with the anti-gay law, he caved, and gutted the law, taking out the anti-gay bit, thus making the law toothless and useless. The religious wing believe that Pence gave in to pressure and is not on their side. So Pence. He brings all the baggage of right wing bigotry but without any of the right wing voter support. Good call, Trump! This is definitely a ‘winner’ (in the way Trump often doesn’t know what even the simplest words mean).

As to generic characteristics as a candidate? Mike Pence had a decade in Congress where he achieved nothing in that time. He wrote no laws that passed. As Governor of Indiana he barely won his election in a year when Romney carried his state by about 10 points. He is good on conservative talking points but if he has to think on his feet, we see his mind is, well, less than the sharpest. I don’t mean he’s a Sarah Palin but he’s not even a Michelle Bachmann. Think Governor Oops. Like Texas ex-Governor Rick Perry, don’t challenge Mike Pence to spontaneously count to three, he might not make it. Yeah. Not the sharpest knife in our drawer. But if you’re Donald Trump, perhaps the one thing you least would want to draw attention to - especially in a time where Trump is under audit and is refusing to show his tax returns, with his baggage of all the fraud and cons and bankruptcies in his past - is any further attention to financial scams and fraud. Mike Pence? He stole so much out of an early run for Congress, paying his mortgage out of campaign funds (this was technically legal at the time) that the campaign finance laws were changed. Pence is such an abuser of campaign finance that yes, they had to change the laws to prevent his scam. THIS is the guy Trump picked?

I wrote about Pence briefly when he was introduced. We will have time to dig more into his full baggage later. I just want to start off, by saying, this was a bad candidate, he doesn’t help Trump but he does hurt him.

...SELECTED BADLY...

So Pence is a bad VP candidate yes. He was also selected BADLY. No not badly. I don’t mean badly. What is that other word? Disastrously. Thats it. Again, this is THE worst process ever used to get to Pence. So where do we start? Oprah. Trump had been planning his run for President for at least 15 years (he was interviewed about a run for President in Fortune magazine in year 2000). Before June of last year, Trump had floated the idea, that he’d have a fantastic Vice President who would just be amazing. And Trump floated the name of Oprah (the only name, as far as I know, that Trump had mentioned before he started his run last June). A TV celebrity couple, Oprah of course a black woman and highly popular, if she’d say yes, Trump could have added to his appeal, especially early on when he was climbing in the polls. And other TV celebrities were drawn to this, most obviously ‘Morning Joe’ Scarborough the ex Republican Congressman, now TV morning news host. Joe was so kissing up to Trump in the late months of 2015 that it really did seem like Joe was using his show to audition for the VP slot.

Well, once Trump became viable as a front-runner, Oprah was asked and she of course shot that idea down immediately. Trump’s response? He didn’t want a celebrity alongside himself anyway, he wanted someone with experience in Washington DC. And perhaps coincidentally, Morning Joe suddenly cooled on Trump too, and became then a strong critic of Trump, perhaps over-compensating for having been so positivc early on. And Trump recipricated by attacking Morning Joe often creating another long-running media feud similar to what Trump had with Megyn Kelly over at Fox.

Then we started to see candidates drop out of the race and Chris Christie jumped onto the Trump bandwagon and endorsed. It was seen as an early and obvious play to try to become Trump’s VP. Many others who dropped out of the Republican field like Gov Rick Perry, Sen Rick Santorum and Gov Mike Huckabee also endorsed Trump and were mentioned as possible VP choices. When Sarah Palin endorsed Trump, he was asked about Sarah as VP but Trump said she would have a job in his Cabinet (suggesting that she would not be considered). Newt Gingrich soon became one of Trump’s entourage and elevated to the Veepstakes and an early currently-sitting Senator endorsing Trump, Jeff Sessions of Alabama. And this then adjusted to a steady trio, Christie, Newt and Sessions, always mentioned, as other names were brought into the mix.

What did Trump need? His support among women was bad, it kept getting worse. And with Hillary as the rival on the other side of the aisle, the argument was very strong to get a female VP. Then there are the minorities. Trump support among blacks, Hispanics, Asians etc was also bad, getting worse. The VP pick could be seen as a way to get some minority support. With Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz (Hispanics) and Dr Ben Carson (black) as rivals, one obvious path would be to pick one of them as the Veep. It could help with the minority demographic but not with the women obviously. So the next stage was the female vote. Ideally a woman minority choice. And now things get bad.

Its the normal ‘play’ with VP, that any still active rival in the party (competing against you) will say ‘I will definitely not accept’ the post of VP because they are still running against you. Then of others, the normal play is ‘I am not interested’ and ‘I have a great job currently’. Not to say ‘absolutely no, under any circumstances’ but not to seem too eager for the job. Some (like Christie and Newt) would nearly beg for the job, making it very clear they would like to be picked. So lets look at the preferred choices for Trump? Nikki Haley the popular young Governor from South Carolina, an Asian-American woman? Said no. Condi Rice the former Secretary of State and a black woman? Said no. Susana Martinez, the Hispanic popular Governor of New Mexico, a Hispanic woman? Said no. These are all women who would have jumped at the chance to be VP for some other Republican whether Mitt Romney or John McCain or most in the current field this time. But not Trump.

Then other leading Republican women? Governor Mary Fallin of Oklahoma.. said no. Senator Susan Collins of Maine.. said no. At this point Trump became so annoyed by how many women were refusing to join his ticket, he said in public that he didn’t care, Vice Presidents didn’t matter and nobody voted for the VP anyway (great endorsement and great incentive to join his ticket). The pain kept coming in. Carly Fiorina, Trump’s rival earlier in the race, was one of those who did not endorse him, and was picked by Ted Cruz in Cruz’s weird pre-announcement of his VP pick. Then Arizona ex-Gov Jan Brewer.. said no. And Trump was stuck with completely hopeless options like Sarah Palin or Michelle Bachmann. He really tried to get a woman, no viable Republican woman who could be acceptable as VP said yes to Trump. But all of them would have said yes to Marco Rubio or John Kasich, and most probably also even to Ted Cruz. Just not Trump. All were totally against joining his ticket because of the hostility Trump himself had illustrated towards women and those smart women all knew, their political lives would be ruined (and they’d also lose all respect of their female colleagues too). One person mentioned was political pundit Ann Coulter (who also seemed to be actively lobbying for some gig with Trump) and that no doubt died the moment they Googled her and found that Ann has said - seriously - that women should not be ALLOWED to vote. Yeah, that’ll help win you the female vote and shrink the gender gap.

Trump shifted gears. The race had ended, so why not a rival. John Kasich. Not a woman or minority, but he’d bring in Ohio and help tons in neighboring ‘rust belt’ states. Kasich said no. What of Marco Rubio? He seemed willing to bury the hatchet, said he won’t endorse Trump but will vote for him. That was not enough. Trump held a grudge about the small hands and said he will not consider Rubio. Trump later warmed enough to allow Marco to address the Convention. Not in person, but via video. Cruz was on Trump’s VP vetting list even as Cruz never endorsed Trump. They had a private meeting and no doubt Cruz said at the meeting - no but give me a speaking slot. The second most obvious route was blocked for Trump. There were serious loser candidates who would be more baggage than benefit (Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Ben Carson, Mike Huckabee etc) but the serious choices among his strong rivals said no (or Trump rejected outright in the case of Rubio who seemed to have somewhat wanted it).

Now we were at the end of May and apart from Christie, Newt and Sessions (none that are enthusiastically embraced by voters anywhere) Trump had nothing else to consider. So they widened the net. Thats when Mike Pence was brought into the calculation (he was vetted for 7 weeks according to reporting). But Pence was nothing like Trump’s top choice at this stage. Iowa Senator Joni Ernst was the new darling. She said.. no. Next Trump vetted Tennessee Senator Bob Corker. He said.. No. Trump floated the idea of a Democrat (Republicans freaked out). Trump said he is considering two Generals, both retired. Lt Gen Stanley McChrystal.. turned Trump down. But Lt Gen Michael Flynn was vetted and Trump did really like the man and wanted him. Flynn turned out to be indeed a life-long registered Democrat with all that baggage like being pro-choice etc. Trump wanted him but could not have him. The Republicans made it very clear, Flynn was off the table. So Trump was down to Christie, Newt, Sessions and.. what was the one guy from Indiana? Yeah ‘my first choice’ haha indeed. Mike Pence. The loser Hoosier.

For a fact we know that of Trump’s preferred choice, he was turned down by at least a DOZEN very qualified top-tier Republican leaders who would have instantly had the ‘gravitas’ and credibility to be his Veep. I am pretty sure no presumptive nominee of a major party has bad a dozen direct rejections from members of his own party - before we look at the others that were denied (like Lt Gen Flynn) or Trump himself rejected (like Rubio). So Mike Pence? Is AT BEST the 13th choice by Trump. Which tells us something, that Trump would feel compelled to obviously blatantly and demostrably lie on camera claiming Pence was his first choice.

Now lets dig just a bit deeper into that process. The person Trump picked to lead the vetting of his VP candidates is.. AB Culvahouse. That name probably means nothing to you but if you’re a serious political junkie, it may ring some, slightly nagging alarm bell. Yes. AB Culvahouse is the SAME attorney who vetted .. Sarah Palin for John McCain in 2008 and didn’t notice that she’s a total airhead. Oh. Yeah. Don’t exactly expect AB Culvahouse to have the mental agility to spot that Mike Pence was left off the tree of intelligence at an early branch. That bodes well. Then on the bizarre selection process itself. The final 3 were according to many reports and also confirmed by Trump himself to be Newt, Christie and Pence. The family liked Newt. The professionals with Manafort liked Pence. Trump himself had grown to like and trust Christie. And let me pause here a bit. How gullible and stupid is Trump, to think Christie, a career selfish politician, who dropped out of the race early to get the head-start to come and lobby for the VP slot, was ‘genuine’ in his ‘affection’ of Trump? Mr burger-boy? Who was used to fetch Trump’s cheeseburgers? Christie played nice guy to Trump in the empty way a politician would and Trump - who hasn’t had a genuine friend for half a century at least (even his wives are purchases, expensive imports from Eastern Europe) - fell for it and thought Christie was his friend. Sad. Pathetic. But hey, Trump wanted to be loyal to his ‘friend’.

Newt managed to get under Trump’s skin, he dropped Newt from the finals, fearing he’ll upstage Trump or contradict him. He was down to two, but Trump, Mr nice guy, didn’t bother to tell Newt he is out. And then we get the decision-disaster. Trump was in California (why? What could possibly be more important than his VP selection?). Of the two, now the family sided with Manafort and the professionals that Trump’s primary need was to unify the party and thus it had to be Pence. Trump wanted his friend Christie. But Trump’s son-in-law argued that Trump cannot pick Christie because Christie had put that man’s father in prison (when Christie was Attorney General in New Jersey). Trump ‘made up his mind’ in a ‘final’ way to go with Pence. Now, time was of the essence. Manafort knew they had to get the VP out before the Convention started, and they needed the weekend news cycle (Hillary would definitely be doing that when her turn came a week later). So Manafort pushed things along. He told Pence, before Trump had said anything. And Manafort told Pence to get on a private plane and fly to New York for the announcement.

Trump felt annoyed and pushed by this, but he told privately Pence that he is the VP and then approved the announcement event timing for 11 AM for Friday morning, at Trump Tower in Manhattan. And Trump did not call Christie or Newt to tell them, he’s not picking them. But Pence, out of his own brilliance, then went and leaked the story to his local press and it went of course like wildfire to the national press. Christie and Newt learned of Trump’s choice via the media, not directly from Trump. And Trump was now angry not just at Manafort for going behind Trump’s back to fly Pence to New York and rushing Trump, but now that Pence had leaked the news. And Trump was still having a lot of second thoughts about Pence. Thats when the horrible terrorist incident happened in France in Nice and Trump used this as the excuse to postpone his Friday introduction event. And several news sources including CNN, NBC and NY Times have confirmed that Trump was still calling people and attempting to somehow un-select Pence. Trump found out that he could not do that.

...AND ROLLED OUT EVEN WORSE

This is the first act by a potential next President of the USA. This act is studied by magnifying glass. All details about it are scrutinized. And its one of only 5 events any candidate gets in an election, to actually move the polls in their favor; far more preciously, its only one of two events where they have total control. And worst of all, these same opportunities also come to the rivals - its certain Hillary will do her VP selection and roll-out professionally to get maximum boost out of it (as well as to run her Convention professionally too, for another polling bump from that). This is no surprise. Trump has known about a VP choice for years. He has been asked about it for a year. He has had names tossed about for six months. He has been asking for candidates to become VP and get into his vetting process for four months. He has had a formal vetting process going on for two months, at least. He has been FORCED to think about this, actively, for a long time. And while his fired Campaign Manager Lewandowski was incompetent, his new Campaign Chairman Manafort clearly knows what needs to be done and has been guiding Trump on this part. This is not a sudden crisis tossed in his lap. This was an ‘easy’ part of the process. This was something that could be planned, and conducted with professionals, with plenty of time.

When Trump feuds with women and minorities so badly, he is literally the most disliked candidate for women or minorities ever measured, then its no surprise most sensible and intelligent candidates - especially any women or minorities - will say no to Trump. But his process is made far worse if he shows so little respect that he openly belittles the job and says it doesn’t matter. Who would want that (other than total losers whose political lives have ended like Christie, Newt or Pence)? When Trump openly feuds with people he had courted - most disasterously the stupid fight with Gov Susana Martinez of New Mexico - that lasted more than a week - that is just idiotic and it makes it even more difficult to attract any good candidates. All will fear they will face the same fate as Martinez.

And then consider the second week of July. Trump was forced to take not his first choice of the last two men remaining (Christie) because of what? Because his party was so fractured. And why was that? Because as I have explained before, the duty of the candidate after they clinch, is to unify the party. To reach out to rivals, to heal. Trump did the exact opposite. He prolonged old fights and re-opened closing wounds, and Trump started new fights. Trump personally made the party less unified since May than where it was. Trump had a genuine revolt brewing that tried to deny him his nomination. That was the context of the final decision time in the second week of July, when Trump was forced to make his choice. And because of the damage Trump had personally done to his candidacy earlier, he was denied the chance to pick the candidate he wanted (Christie) and rather, take the ‘lesser choice’ the loser Hoosier, Mike Pence the unpopular Governor of Indiana.

But now the mess. Trump was angry and paranoid as his campaign was conspiring with his family against him, the candidate was flown without his blessing to New York, and then the story was leaked to the press. So Trump had a fit. And he used the excuse of the terrorism in France to postpone his announcement. Well. How badly did that go. Its a catalog of errors. First off, we find out via Manafort that Trump had an ‘emotional episode’ - something you do not want a ‘Presidential’ candidate to have. This is very damaging to Trump. And we witnessed him with that, when he was on TV twice that evening telling that he has not yet made up his mind, for a ‘final final’ choice and that he still had 3 candidates left, Christie, Newt and Pence. If you subscribe to the sterotype that women are overly emotional, then Trump was now behaving like that stereotype of a woman. A potential President to come unglued because of an ‘emotional episode’ is a disqualifying personal attribute. I am certain Trump will be hit hard on this point in the coming weeks.

Then we have the spectacle of two of his finalists (but only 1 of those 3 mentioned) rushing into the media to make a last-minute attempt to get back as the front-runner. Newt came out with his idea to persecute Muslims even more than Trump had suggested before. And Lt General Flynn for his part, suddenly flip-flopped on abortion in an attempt to get back into the game. But the most ridiculous lunacy from Trump was his call for a declaration of war against ISIS and ‘extreme vetting’ of all immigrants because of the event in France. First, the event was IN FRANCE. It was horrific yes, but it killed 84 but just the previous week over 200 died in Baghdad - and that WAS ISIS. Trump was silent then. What was this event in France? As of Sunday (three days AFTER Trump demanded a war) the French police say they don’t know what was the motive but that it was a lone driver, he was not a devout Muslim, he ate pork during Ramadan, he never attended a Mosque. So what ISIS here? So Trump, going totally mental would want to launch a war ‘with boots on the ground’ to go fight against ISIS when one deranged non-religious driver kills 84 in France. Seriously? This is ‘Presidential’? When the previous week ISIS directly attacked Baghdad with bombings and killed over 200 and Trump felt no interest to even comment. Yet now he wants 30,000 troops (that is Trump’s previous count of what number of US soldiers should be sent to fight) should go fight in Syria and Iraq, because nobody attacked in the USA. And some single criminal mass-murdered people in France. Lets go launch yet another war in Iraq. Nice move, moron.

But we’re not done. Then Trump did his nightly calls to try to un-select Pence. That was out of the question. So Trump finally sent out the formal announcement that yes, Pence is his choice and a new ‘News Conference’ will be held on Saturday at 11 AM. This formal announcement came.. via a Tweet, yes on Twitter.

Now I love Twitter. And there is nothing inherently wrong with using a new communciation technology to announce your VP if you want to be geeky about it - President Obama announced his VP pick of Joe Biden using SMS text messaging in 2008, a hot technology at that time and a bold move. But Trump did it - of course - all wrong. First, he is supposedly an expert at Twitter. He did not follow Pence and didn’t have Pence following Trump back, before this announcement. Ouch. You picked the person one heartbeat away from being the most powerful person on the planet, and its someone you haven’t even bothered to ever follow before this Tweet? Seriously Trump?  You have 9 million followers but you couldn’t be bothered to follow Pence when he was one of your final 3? Nice (or possibly just slightly bit narcissistic).

Trump - a ‘Twitter pro’ - didn’t include Pence’s Twitter handle!!! So when Trump announced, anyone of his 9 million followers could not go to the correct Mike Pence. Oh, this is ‘professional’ but yeah, it gets worse. Of course it does. There was NO LINK to any campaign website or ANY website. And yeah, on and on a digital nightmare. The websites did not link. There was no biography page for journalists now rushing to write the first Pence stories - THIS IS TOTALLY MAD, it means the journalists had to go find Pence’s bio details from random sources - meaning, often their FIRST impression is the NEGATIVE stories about Pence - that will also go into those vital ‘first impression’ press stories to make Pence seem less fabulous as Trump’s first choice.

Trump and the campaign was then silent for hours. One Tweet. So what was the second move in cyberspace? 25 minutes after Trump’s official Tweet announcing Pence, the second move was .. by Hillary’s nimble online team. They published their first ATTACK ad online about Pence. Yes. Before Trump has managed to send a second Tweet, or update their web pages to include mentions of Pence or links across, or post biography summaries, the competition already posted a VIDEO against their guy. Yes on Twitter, yes on YouTube and Facebook and plenty more. When you had months to prepare for this moment, you really let the opposition gain an edge only 25 MINUTES after your first move. Politico outlined the major social media mistakes in this article. How incredibly incompetent IS the Trump campaign? This is the Mickey Mouse club!

So the Pence roll-out was not exactly a cyber-success. What about the optics. Is Trump taking his VP in any way seriously? Can this man possibly help unify a party that Trump personally was ripping apart? Did he embrace his ‘final final’ choice after all? Well. At the event there is no Trump+Pence logo on the podium. It only says Trump. Note, that was after the event was DELAYED by a day. Yet they couldn’t manage to go to Kinko’s to print out a sign with both names on it? The Rolling Stones song playing before Trump spoke was ‘You Can’t Always Get What You Want’ (how subtle is that).

The two did not appear in any dramatic ‘introduction’. The event itself is tiny - Romney introduced Paul Ryan at the Battleship USS Wisconsin (Ryan is from Wisconsin), a massive WW2 Battleship now a museum ship, anchored in Virginia - a battlegound state. They had a huge crowd. Trump couldn’t be bothered to step out of his home Trump Tower to introduce Pence. The event was in a small conference room with a slight audience - including people who were invited in literally from the street moments before the event (which partly explains why Trump’s audience reactions were so muted). Yes. Trump who genuinely can draw a crowd of 10,000 almost anywhere, didn’t even book a room for 500. And people were hustled in from the street to come attend a Trump event.  Nothing dramatic or exciting or photogenic to help the ticket or to show any kind of pride Trump might have in his 13th choice for Vice President.

When Trump finally gave the podium for Pence to speak, Trump walked away and didn’t bother to stand there to support Pence. Trump’s wife didn’t bother to show up to this historic moment when her husband introduced potentially the new Vice President of the USA (and recall, its in their HOME building). After the brief speeches there were no press interviews (at an event labeled a ‘Press Conference’) and worst slap in the face. Trump left Pence to fend for himself and his family in New York who were stuck going to a local Chili’s restaurant - with no Trumps. Then the Pence family flew home to Indiana and Trump doesn’t bother to campaign with this ‘partner’ in his administration. Yeah I think the Republicans can read from those signals quite clearly, that selecting Pence signals no movement by Trump towards any of the conservative positions that Pence represent and that Trump will not ever bother to listen to Pence on anything.

A CATASTROPHIC SPEECH EVEN BY TRUMP STANDARDS

So we get to Trump’s speech. It was beyond ridiculous. So. Trump has one of his largest TV audiences of his whole political career. It is the most momentous executive decision he will make during the election season and if he were to become the 45th President of the USA, it is the first actual decision relating to that Presidency. A momentous, historical occasion. And one of only 5 chances Trump has to get a bump in his lagging poll numbers. So did he hit this out of the park? No, its pretty fair to say he did not hit the ball at all. I don’t think he even remembered to bring his baseball bat when he walked up to take the pitch.

There is a set protocol for how this pair of speeches is done. It is a set protocol for good reason, because it works. You do not want to brag about your OWN achievements. Its far more ‘humbling’ and ‘Presidential’ to have the OTHER guy praise you. And this is the INTRO of the VP to the national stage. The candidate has been campaigning for a year. This is the time to ELEVATE the game, to now rise to the rare level of ‘Presidential’. So the purpose is to be ‘incredibly impressed’ by that VP (who has been vetted for many weeks and in reality the candidate knows - or should know - fully well everything about the VP). This is where you put your own ego totally aside. You give a relatively short intro, but of highlights that really serve YOUR campaign, out of what your VP has done, and what will ENDEAR your VP to the voters. To show how brilliant YOU are out of that SELECTION. Make them really fall in love with the VP. Look at how McCain introduced Sarah Palin; how Romney introduced Paul Ryan; or how Obama introduced Joe Biden. Its not a difficult thing to understand, there is a clear formula for this and it makes YOU seem Presidential, after a year of seeing petty in the party-inside politics.

Then shut up. Let the Veep talk. And your VP candidate then heaps enormous praise about YOU the candidate. That is how you do it. The VP will be given a series of items to speak about - quite possibly the whole part about you - by your speech-writers. But written so that obvously your Veep wants to highlight parts that make you the candidate seem great - many who are watching this broadcast have not followed the campaign in the primary race and for some BOTH of you are still uknowns. So how the VP speaks about the candidate, that is VERY important. And then the VP will pivot to attack the enemy, the rival candidate (not their VP haha, the top of the ticket of course). This is the traditional role of the VP. So you, the candidate do not spend one moment talking about your rival - in THIS speech. And you do ABSOLUTELY not talk about youself at all. Everybody knows YOU. This is about ‘your’ Veep. See how bright my Veep is, this is what my brilliant administration will be like. Don’t you feel impressed?

You absolutely do not talk about youself. Why? Because your VP is there to do just that. You only show your immense admiration and respect of how incredibly talented and qualified is that candidate for VP that you just got to accept to run with you, and express how pleased and proud you are. And come on, memorize at least that VP’s name haha.

Yeah. Trump did none of that. He spoke for 28 MINUTES before he remembered to discuss Pence and his biography. In those 28 minutes Trump did his meandering stream-of-consiousness jazz odyssey of Sarah Palinesque nonsense, often on rambling sentences and of thoughts not completed, etc. So. For example. He of course attacked Hillary (for 14 minutes!!!). Then he reminded audiences again that he won his primaries (why. Why on earth. The fact he won primaries has ZERO relevance to being President, what he did BEFORE this primary season started, that would be of relevance, not that he won the primaries. We KNOW that, he wouldn’t be here now if it didn’t happen). But Trump can’t stop himself, so of course this is his vengefulness, sticking the knife in, opening old wounds - and then new wounds - now he decided its a good time to do a victory lap about the convention revolt that was brewing. WHY mention this? At this moment? At this speech? Doesn’t he get it, that this will only anger those revolutionaries to pull other futile stunts next week to mess up a ‘smoothly running’ Convention even more than they already now had planned to do. But Trump just has to brag about how he’s the alpha-dog and how he crushes his rivals (that’ll help fi rifts in the party, haha, yeah, no it won’t. It will only make those wounds deeper). And yes, Trump had the brilliant brain-fart to first sell his new hotel (in Ireland! how many New Yorkers will ever even go there) before he bothers to tell the audience in attendance about the MAN he was supposed to sell, his VP named Pence.

Then if you feel somehow compelled to talk about random other topics, in this, your biggest speech to the largest TV audience you have ever had in your life up to this point, then please do not draw attention to those few areas where your fresh new VP and you happen to DISAGREE. Yes, if you want to talk about something else for some reason (the terrorism in France, ok, that is appropriate since it was your excuse to delay the event). But gosh darn it, don’t use this occasion to mention ANY areas where you and the VP disagree. Do you want THAT to be the lead story in the press? Why oh why oh why would you mention Hillary voting about the Iraq war? Don’t you idiot know that Pence voted the same way? Why would you talk about trade wars - don’t you know Pence was a strong supporter of NAFTA? There were I think six separate areas that Trump mentioned in his meandering non-speech part, that were EXACTLY those same type of issues, where Pence DOES have an opposite view to you.

Then he did mercifully get to Pence. And again, how little was he prepared. Trump had to tilt his head down to read from his notes, as he started the actual intro and biography part, as if Trump had forgotten the name of his Vice President. But on the bio. Whoever wrote the notes to that actual intended speech before the Trumpisms that preceeded it (very likely Trump himself) was a child’s attempt. Trump had taken what is probably Pence’s PR bio and read that. Items that may perhaps impress a local and somewhat ignorant audience about Pence but items that are truly not remarkable and not worth mentioning now. And Trump was reacting to those items as if he was really reading the bio for the first time in his life, then and there, on the stage, like an MC to some conference with a slew of uknown speakers. Trump was impressed that Pence balanced the budget of Indiana each year he was Governor. That sounds impressive, Donald Moron, but many who are into politics know, and most who write this news story will at least almost instantly find out - there is a legal requirement in the State of Indiana (as most states) to balance the budget. He cannot have passed a budget that wasn’t balanced. Its NOTHING to be impressed about. Its a stupid thing to mention and it shows TRUMP’s ignorance to underline that point and be so personally impressed about this. The whole speech was like this. Again, I cannot do justice to the level of weird that it was, but Ezra Klein at Vox has a great article that is short and captures how bizarre it was.

But how much does Trump love himself? His speech to introduce Pence was measured by WaPo to spend 39% of the speech on Trump himself, and 13% on Hillary, with only 21% on Pence (rest on other topics like haha his hotel). Yes, Trump spoke almost twice as much about himself than his VP speech - in the speech that was supposed to introduce Pence. And only one FIFTH of the intro speech was devoted to talking about his ‘running mate’. Yet of that alleged ‘running mate’. Trump blatantly lied to open camera that Pence was his first choice when everybody knows and its child’s play to check, he wasn’t anywhere near even Trump’s FIFTH choice (with a little more digging less than 5 minutes, he wasn’t the TENTH choice). Why would Trump make such a blatant obvious lie, straight to camera? Because he is a serial liar who lies 78% of the time. If a truth happens to slip by Trump’s lips, its a total coincidence that occurs only 22% of the time. But this again is yet another bit of evidence that Trump’s campaign is inherently self-destructive; every thing he does is counter-productive, the only question is, how long until this latest problem exposes itself. As if Trump was sowing a minefield onto the very road he has to pass.

One more thing about that speech. Of all its faults, this is truly the biggest. Trump admitted openly and very clearly that Pence was selected to fix the broken party. Don’t ever EVER say that. It undermines EVERYTHING you just did and will do. Now everybody who ever could be considering Pence as a reason to vote for you, will dismiss it, because they know Pence was just a pawn. You don’t care one iota what Pence is or thinks or values or could possibly do. You picked Pence because you needed to fix the party (that you have been breaking). So the whole process, days of preparation, weeks of vetting, and events arranged about Pence, and his role in the next four months - all of that is thrown away. By that stupid devastating line. Yeah, I picked him so the party would not be as broken. And by every action around Pence Trump then signalled that he truly doesn’t rate Pence worth his attention. Not even to memorize his name. Yeah. I could imagine the speech-writer who wrote the actual intended speech must have been sobbing backstage, Mr Manafort, I swear I didn’t write that. He is ad-libbing again.

This speech is so epic in how bad it was, it can be given as a final exam by Political Science professors in Speech Writing 101: Introduction to Political Speeches - as the test, identify all mistakes in this speech and then just hand them the transcript. Its that thoroughly and comprehensively aweful and self-destructive. It was a ‘how-to’ on everything you should never do in a political speech.

Everything about the actual intro event signalled both verbally and visually that Trump didn’t care about Pence and that if Trump was ever elected President, Pence would be among the least relevant VPs ever elected, possibly THE least relevant. This now means, that those Republicans and conservatives who wanted to believe that Pence will balance this ticket and help bring Trump towards their views, are clearly told that it won’t happen. But note also, Trump is shooting his strongest surrogate in public view, essentially in the face by shotgun like Dick Cheney. So normally if you can’t get the candidate for President to come to your event (if you’re a local politician for example) its still a good honor to ‘at least’ get the VP candidate to come and campaign with you. What good will it be to send the man that Trump doesn’t even remember his name. Whose name was not on the sign at the podium. The man Trump cares so little for, that he didn’t even go treat for a nice dinner together on the biggest day of his life (Pence’s) that the Pence family is embarrassed to go eat at Chico’s alone. Eat up darling, daddy is going to be the Vice President...

When Romney introduced Ryan, they campaigned feverishly TOGETHER for many days, and had FOUR events together that very same day. Trump left Pence to his own devices, to fly alone back home to Indiana (not a battleground state). And yeah, to be clear, New York is not a battleground state either. And are they campaigning together Saturday, Sunday, Monday? No. Pence will speak at the Convention on Tuesday.

Wait. There is more. Then the logo. Yeah. Its rare for a graphic artist to come up with a logo that has an obvious sexual act suggested by it, but the original Trump Pence logo managed to suggest TWO sexual acts, either that Trump was penetrating Pence or else that Pence was pleasuring Trump. The logo drew immediate massive online ridicule and was taken down in less than a day. Again its total amateur hour. Then the first interview. 60 Minutes had been given the first interview of the two candidates together. In it Pence was asked about negative campaigning and he deflected in a very clumsy way away from the question but Trump jumped in and said yeah, they’ll do negative campaigning. Pence has a strong moral position and history against negative campaigning. When Trump was asked about Pence’s vote on the Iraq War, Trump said it doesn’t matter at all, because it was so long ago. Yet its one of the strongest arguments Trump has made against Hillary (the identical same vote). And on and on, a disaster again as an interview. Trump dominating it taking over and speaking 80% of the time. Pence only being diminished and looking like he’d want to be back in Indiana now where 6 out of 10 of his citizens hate him. The 60 Minutes interview ALONE is fodder for several NEW attack ads on Trump (and Pence). It was that bad.

WHAT DO WE LEARN

Boy this is revealing. About Trump. About Pence too. But most of all about the Campaign. And its all bad. All of it, is bad. Trump. What do we know. We see now, that he SEES the damage he has been doing (even though he never makes mistakes and has nothing to apologize for). Pence was selected over Trump’s preferred finalist, Christie, because Trump was told Pence will help unify the party. If Trump felt the party was unified, he’d not have taken Pence. So we do know, there is some semblance of reality lurking in the private thoughts of Trump’s evaluation of this train-wreck of a campaign. He therefore does know that he is behind. He knows he is not making progress against Hillary. It must be frustrating because he was leading so easily against the Republican field. It may explain part of Trump’s unpredictability and irritability. He knows he’s losing, he knows what he is doing isn’t working - but this being Trump, he will never admit that in public.

The we saw the instinctive Trump. He will lie even when he knows that we know he is lying. The ridiculous - and utterly useless - line that Pence was his first choice. That was not in his notes. It was part of his ad-libbing. But why would he EVER feel a need to say that? Its Trump. He needs to lie to make everything always be either the absolute best, or the total worst. Yes, of course this man whose exact name he can’t recall, and who was at best the 13th choice when everybody ahead of him refused to accept Trump’s offer, of course this would then have been Trump’s first choice all along. When Trump didn’t know who he was before June. And admitted on Thursday night on Fox TV that actually, he was still pondering 3 choices after Pence had already landed in New York.

We also saw the same in the desperate late night TV interviews, trying to backtrack out of the Pence choice. Calling in to Fox and saying no, he hasn’t made his ‘final final’ choice and he still has three candidates he is considering (Hillary rushed out an online ad already! Mocking Trump for his ‘final final’ style of decision-making). We then saw his thought-process with the emergency situation - the solo mass-murderer of likely no religious motivation in France, that prompted Trump to demand a full war on ISIS in a whole other country (and one where we already have military operations under Congressional approval). Trump’s world-destabilizing first instinct is to launch a war. This action alone should disqualify Trump from consideration for President.

We witnessed how lazy Trump is. He didn’t bother to memorize the main points of Pence’s biography (was even unsure of his name at one point). A professional speaker, serious about a really important speech, will memorize its critical parts and practise that passage at least 10 times can be 20 times to know it instinctively, to be able to ‘sell the line’ where needed. To KNOW the speech. Trump didn’t bother. He mailed this one in. He winged it. The most important speech of his Presidential run up to this point, and Turmp winged it. Thats how lazy he is. He doesn’t care.

This tells us more, that Trump is delusional. This tells us that Trump thinks he is instinctively, naturally such a strong talent he can wing this kind of event and speech. Trump has fallen into the habit of repeating himself when doing speeches. He thinks the repetition in the speech is a powerful rhetorical tool that makes him seem smart. If used once or twice in a season, it may. If used many times in each speech, it makes Trump seem particularly dense, like a Forrest Gump. But Trump isn’t learning, he is not improving. He is delusional. He thinks because his adoring fans at his rallies love him promising a wall or to waterboard terrorists, undecided voters will think Trump is a great speaker with uplifting motivational and inspirational style, and vote for him. They won’t. Only his loyal supporters like him and even those would like him more, if he structured his speeches better and delivered them more professionally. Trump has fallen into many bad habits of lazy speakers and his delusions will not let him learn to improve. Soon it will be too late.

But most of all, in Trump, we saw his vindictiveness. Pence leaked the story, yes thats pretty selfish and stupid. Where was the professional Campaign Management hiding away Pence’s mobile phones and keeping him locked and watched from ‘the call’ from Trump until 11 AM? But Trump? He then punishes this man and won’t give him any dignity and acts the full alpha-male superiority and diminishes Pence in the speech and on and on. And leaves Pence alone to dine with his family at Chico’s. What a total asshole as a person, but gosh how vindictive. Are we sure Trump’s heritage Drumpf is German? He sounds more like Sicilian haha (or Corsican).

What of his family? The kids are at the very least meddling heavily in the campaign. At worst they are constantly overruling the campaign. There is clearly tension inside the campaign. And the amateur hour is at least partly causing the problems. A professional campaign without continuous family interference would not be this chaotic and disfunctional.

Which gets us to the main findings. The campaign. This is the worst campaign in the modern TV era. Yes, its likely Trump is the worst candidate ever (we don’t yet know but signs are strong) but certainly now we know, this is the worst campaign ever run. And now we see a lot into the inside. First off, Paul Manafort Campaign Chairman is forced to do two duties. Manage the relations to Washington DC and donors (the level a Chairman is expected to work at) AND do the daily management of the campaign itself (speeches, events, political positions, media, travel etc). He is totally overwhelmed and constantly items fall through the cracks. His work is made FAR worse by the constant meddling of the kids and the recalcitrance of his candidate, Trump himself. And Manafort is constantly uncovering more time-bombs and landmines that were laid into his path in the previous 10 months before Manafort joined the team in April.

Trump is clearly paranoid and frustrated and fearful of his campaign taking control over his life and is rebelling. We see occasional moments when Trump is let loose and he goes on Twitter, or he goes off-script in a speech and all mayhem breaks out. Trump’s alpha-dog personality wants to regain control and he already now lashed out taking his frustrations on Pence. I am pretty sure at least part of that is targeted at Manafort and we may soon see Trump dropping Manafort or relegating him to a less prominent role. But its not that Manafort is evil or wrong, Manafort’s instincts are golden for Trump. What Trump needs is a really competent, top-tier Campaign Manager who has run a Presidential general election campaign before (not many of those around, and look how hard it was for Trump to get a VP, he may well have to settle for the 13th best Campaign Manager too, when he finally gets around to hiring him, when Manafort is near a heart attack from exhaustion). By the way, that professional Campaign Manager will cost an arm and a leg by now, to try to salvage this nearly-sunken ship.

But the digital team? The Trump logo. The Twitter nonsense. The online confusion. Its a total mess and either it has some family members running it or some interns, or else its severely undermanned. Compare to Hillary who has a top-notch very deep digital team who hit Pence in 25 minutes; who have already turned Trump’s ‘final final’ into another online video ad; and a team that has Hillary out-Tweeting Trump by 50% already (obviously she doesn’t send out most Tweets in her name, as now also Trump’s Twitter handle doesn’t only send Trump-authored Tweets anymore).

The events/apperances team. The Pence announcement held in New York (State)? Why on earth? New York will never vote for a Republican, its a safely ‘blue’ state voting Democratic. One of the most Democratic states there is. Why not use this rare opportunity to go to a battleground state. Pennsylvania is only two hours away by car. The events team is at least underfunded if not also undermanned. They tend to do events at Trump properties. Not many of those in Iowa or Wisconsin or New Hampshire. But those are battleground states that Trump has to campaign in, or he will never be President.

Speech-writing? The Pence speech was ok, not great. Trump’s notes to his (intended) speech were atrocious. He may have written those himself (cheapskate! Hire a team - a TEAM - of pro speech writers already. You can’t have Manafort spending his time authoring your Teleprompter speeches).

The campaign is attempting a ‘pivot’ and Manafort has been pushing it. Trump resists. When Trump is forced onto a Teleprompter speech he mostly stays on message and delivers reasonably rational speeches and arguably defensible positions. When Trump goes off script or does one of these ‘from notes’ speeches, he is a disaster. And the campaign so far has not extinguished that. As the Democrats have said, nothing is more powerful to their side, than letting Trump speak spontaneously. There are jokes now that Hillary should insist on a debate every week and let Trump get twice the time she takes. It would all just go to damage Trump further. He is a handgrenade rolling around with the pin pulled.

The next four and half months will uncover a ton of the landmines that Trump had already meticulously laid in front of his own path. We saw a few in this episode. Trump admitting he had to pick Pence even though he didn’t want to - because he had not been able to unite his party before. So, moron, why didn’t you do what your own party BEGGED for the past 3 months since you clinched in late April? Why are you still now, two DAYS before the Convention, reminding Republicans about your primary victories? Do you not get it, that it serves nothing except keeps wounds still sore? You WON the primary. Get over it, never mention it again, focus on winning the general election. Be magnanimous in your victory, heap praise on your losing rivals and try to get them to feel better. No, Trump is vindictive and bears a grudge and has to take umpteen victory laps. He literally showers more pain onto the vanquished. Those of his OWN party who will be needed to carry Trump to victory in November.

The campaign is ill-prepared. This was the LEAST stressful task they had, and they utterly fumbled it. The campaign is weak in reacting (see logo fiasco). The campaign is a one-trick pony. Trump sits in Trump Tower and telephones TV shows. Well, that is wearing thin and the advantage is no longer 50 to 1 as it was in the primaries. Hillary can play that game too, and while she isn’t a celebrity TV star, she is the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States of America. How’s your advantage? Media Matters measured TV interview time for Trump vs Hillary in the month of June. Trump was ahead yes, but only by a factor of 2 to 1. Even worse, the only network where Trump dominated was Fox. Similarly Hillary dominated MSNBC. If we remove those networks with strong partisan audiences, the rest of the four networks (ABC, CBS, CNN and NBC) the TV time is tied. TIED. The only natural advantage that Trump’s ‘radical new’ campaign had, has now been neutralized by Hillary. On Twitter, where the popular myth suggests Trump leads, Hillary is WAY ahead of Trump.

There was doubt in the past, of was Trump going to get away with his lies or his various gaffes. No. Its only that the damage is appearing on a significant delay. Trump’s popularity keeps sinking. He has hit 0% among black voter support in two in-state polls in two major battleground states, Ohio and Pennsylvania. This is a first in any polling ever. Literally Trump currently gets zero black votes in those two states. Among Hispanics we have a brand new poll just now saying nationally Trump is at 14%. It is the lowest ever measured by any national candidate of a major party. Trump is losing WHITE college-educated voters, something Republicans have not lost ever. And with women voters, Trump has a record gender gap. The only voters that love Trump are less educated white older men. Trump’s behavior is not immune to political effects but they have a cumulative effect, over time. Like cancer. It just keeps growing. And while he has his very very loyal 33% who just absolutely love him (and slowly there is erosion out of those who joined early, who become disillusioned suddenly when they discover he is a scam, a con artist, a fraud), Trump has hit his ceiling and can’t break 40% nationally no matter what he tries. Now, Hillary is no peach. She has high negatives too, and can’t get to 50% but a 45% to 33% election is a 12 point epic landslide. Obama beat Romney by 5% and Obama’s victory over McCain was called a landslide. It was only by 7%.

Hillary can pick up some support as her campaign runs a well-produced Convention. She is getting ‘Bernistas’ to join her. She has her VP choice to use. She has the most powerful surrogate team ever to campaign for a Presidential candidate, headlined by two past and popular Presidents, Bill Clinton and Obama. Trump can’t get either of the Bush Presidents to even say they can vote for Trump or to show up at his Convention. Toss in highly popular Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren to campaign for Hillary and you have perhaps the biggest ‘famous five’ of one party ever to campaign on one ticket. Trump can’t get Romney to endorse, John McCain who said he will vote for Trump will not appear with him or at the Convention, and while yes Ted Cruz will speak at the Convention, he is nearly as much disliked nationally as Trump is.

Every stupid statement ever made by Trump is recorded, on tape. In most of those, there are a slew of highly visible Republicans who condemned Trump for saying that, whatever it happened to be. We have seen that Hillary has these and is fast in producing the attack ads. Trump’s campaign? It has no idea even of what Trump himself has said, as often in Trump’s Teleprompter speeches he presents positions diametrically opposed to what Trump has said in the recent past. And Trump will not take the time to be prepped for the press and questions. We saw that in the 60 Minutes interview, where he spouts out what comes into his head. Talented well-prepped interviewers will run rings around Trump, like on the question about blaming Hillary for her vote on Iraq. If Trump now brings it up, Hillary will run the TV ad where Trump says clearly - on Pence - that the vote in Iraq is ancient history and doesn’t matter. He will look like a total fool to now ever raise that issue again (and yet, we know he will, because he has no Campaign Manager to hold him to the slightest bit of messaging discipline).

Of logic and sense? The Campaign just acquired its most valuable resource after the Candidate. Its prime surrogate speaker. The only campaign resource that cannot be replicated is the time of the Presidential candidate. But the Veep is a substitute who should be used to exhaustion for every request of the main candidate’s time that the campaign cannot spare but wants to still do that other event. The VP time has to be booked solid. What happened? Trump sent Pence to go fly back home. As I said, Romney went on the road for many days with Ryan and they did four events on the day Ryan was introduced. Trump didn’t go campaign with Pence. And if he didn’t want to, then they should be campaigning separately. But for no other events that day, and then just send Pence home to Indiana with no events? This is a clueless and gross negligence by the Trump Campaign. Watch how Hillary does it next week and learn. But the Trump campaign has only 112 days left and its squandering again days, days wasted.

SO WHAT NOW?

I wrote in March, when it was clear that this race will feature Trump against Hillary, that the race will be a 20 point landslide for Hillary by November. I made that assumption on a two-way race, now we do have Johnson and Stein as the third-party candidates to take some votes. But a 20 point victory would be 60/40. That assumed that Trump ran a smart campaign, a disciplined campaign, and pivoted clearly to a general election. It assumed the campaign was going to be sane. And that Trump did not voluntarily throw away his chances like the VP event just now.

We now know that Trump is a horrid candidate (and human being, if that wasn’t obvious before). He is also mostly out of control. We know that a professional campaign is attempting to do right somewhere in the dungeons of Trump Tower but the family is interfering constantly in the daily operations. The campaign is totally outclassed, undermanned and underfunded. It is failing on all fronts. The race that should remain close will just split apart. After the Conventions are over, Hillary will be in the first four polls out in August, at an average lead of at least 10 points and could be 12 to 15 points - on average. Thats before we get to the debates and the stretch-run of the campaign.

We know enough of the CAMPAIGN now, that we see its a fully professional operation on Hillary’s side against a total kiddie Mickey Mouse gang doing Keystone Cops on Trump’s side. He is losing every battle and the losses are truly epic, historic. He is not destroyed in polling simply because that poorly educated, severely mis-informed Fox viewer white male audience loves their guy. But his polling has peaked and will take a very slow erosion down from 33%. This campaign (and this candidate and this VP) doesn’t have the ability to recover.

So yes, the loss by Trump will be more than 20 points (in a 2-way race where total third party vote would be less than 3% combined). I don’t know yet how much, lets wait for Hillary’s VP choice and see the Conventions, and I will then make a new estimate. But to factor Johnson and Stein, most of Trump’s erosion from his base will not go to Hillary, it will go to Johnson. So one way to consider the election is where will Trump land. He will not get more than 35% in November. That is what the ‘more than 20%’ means now. Hillary may not get to 60%, she may not get even to 55%, because the third party candidates will take more votes. That doesn’t matter anymore because Trump has destroyed his chances to win in November. Even if Hillary wins by ‘only’ 15 points but Trump is at 35% - Hillary wins by a MASSIVE electoral college vote taking such red states as Texas, Mississippi, Montana, Alaska and North Dakota. Yes. I am already now saying November Texas goes to Hillary. Trump is so messed up, he won’t get more than 35% of the vote nationally. That means he loses all battleground states, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Wisconsin, Iowa, New Hamsphire, Nevada, New Mexico, and of course yes Pennsyvlania too. And those states that Obama lost but are now targeted by Hillary, yes, she wins them all too: North Carolina, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri and Arizona. The question for Trump is, will he keep Utah or might Johnson steal Utah. What about Wyoming or Alabama, if Johnson does well in the debates, he could steal 5 or more states.

Which gives the last possible view. What Trump is doing is not consistent with a Presidential campaign. It just is not consistent with a campaign. What Trump is doing, is consistent with a scam. We will know a lot more when the next campaign finance filings are due on 20 July, third day of the Convention, but yeah. I do think Trump is running a scam. He may well drop out suddenly, even as early as during the Convention, but very very likely Trump will drop out before the first debate. If Trump suddenly promises to release his taxes, and the release date is just after the first debate - then its time to go take that bet from the betting markets that Trump may drop out. It would be a VERY strong sign that is what he actually is intending to do. If you want to read more about my analysis of why is this possibly a scam, come to this blog: Trump may be running a money scam disguised as a Presidential campaign.

Trump VP Choice Mike Pence - So When Your Campaign Wasn't In Trouble Enough With Women, Perhaps?

So its Mike Pence the sitting Governor of Indiana. The media are just reporting a leaked story that its Pence. Donald Trump has finally made his VP selection. Lets start with the vast lost opportunities. Trump is behind in the gender gap. He is facing the largest gender gap ever measured on polling between the two choices for President. Did he pick a woman? No, Pence is obviously a man. What about minority support. Trump has the worst measured support among Hispanics of any candidate on either side. Trump polling percentage with Hispanics is down in the teens. He could have picked a Hispanic. No. Pence is obviously not Hispanic. Trump has an even worse demographic shortfall with black voters. Two local polls in Pennsylvania and Ohio just found Trump with literally zero percent support among black voters. This is unprecedented in how bad it is. Trump could have picked a black Veep. Pence is white. Trump also faces an age gap. He could have picked a young Veep to try to appeal to the youth voters. Pence is 57 years old. The Trump-Pence ticket probably has the highest combined age of any ticket in US election history. As I just put on Twitter, its the Grumpy Old Men Ticket.

NO BENEFIT

So understand, he had better choices. He could have picked a woman AND minority AND youth candidate, like say South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley or Nevada Governor Susana Martinez. He could have taken two of the three target demographics, with say Former Secretary of State Condi Rice (black and woman but not young) or Marco Rubio (Hispanic and young but a man) or Ted Cruz (another Hispanic and young but a man). Instead Trump selected a candidate who does nothing to help with ANY demographic shortfall - each of which for Trump is at historically bad levels.

Did Trump pick up a key battleground state? No. Indiana is not a battleground. If Indiana ends up in play, it means Trump has already lost the election and Hillary Clinton is fighting whether she wins by 10 points or 15 points. That is the level when Indiana starts to be in play. Now, what of alternatives? John Kasich, an older white man similar to Pence, is the popular Governor of Ohio and would have all-but-guaranteed a Republican victory in the critical battleground state. Governor Rick Scott of Florida, a younger white man than Pence would have probably won Florida, another critical battleground state. Marco Rubio would have put Florida at least in play and possibly helped win it. Governor Scott Walker yet another white middle-aged man of Wisconsin would at least have brought Wisconsin into the game and could have won his home state, another battleground state.

If you asked Democrats who would they most fear as a pairing, about two months ago, when the table was relatively open (before several said they will not want to be on the ticket with Trump) they’d probably list among the most dangerous pairings for Trump to be Trump-Martinez, Trump-Rice, Trump-Haley, Trump-Kasich and Trump-Rubio. Each of these would have gone a long way to ADDING voters to Trump, taking from the middle, making it far harder for Hillary and her ticket to win. A Mike Pence Vice President is close to the best possible wish the Democrats have had (arguably Newt Gingrich was the ultimate hope of simply two very white and rich and bigoted, arrogant Dirty Rotten Scroundels).

RELIGULOUS VOTERS

There is one voter demographic that finds Mike Pence appealing, it is the religious right. Pence pushed through and signed the ‘religious freedom’ law which made it legal to discriminate against gays in Indiana. That was then faced with fierce national push-back by all sorts of companies and organizations and Pence was forced to revoke the law. That push-back also killed Pences’s chances to run for President. A loser. Exactly the type of person Trump would look for in a Veep.

But the religious voters do love Pence for that act. He at least tried. So Trump would gain support from this slice of Republican voters. Note, they are VERY strongly base Republican voters, most of whom are already onboard Trump’s train and the rest that all pundits had already counted, would be coming home to Trump anyway. Especially as the gays and abortion-lovers are all in Camp Hillary. Trump should never have had to try to SECURE the support of the religious right. Just giving his ultra-religious pals like Jerry Falwell Jr, Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum and Michelle Bachmann prominent speaking slots on the convention would have brought most of his religious voters home. Yes, Pence does deliver this one voter segment but most of it was Republican to begin with, many were already onboard with Trump, and the last who were not (who now will pick Trump) they were among the 20% undecideds - that were already FACTORED in to eventually migrate to Trump just like most undecided Bernie Sanders supporters will come home to support Hillary. Trump could have gained one, two or even possibly three demographics from the MIDDLE to help him win. Instead, he wasted his VP pick on Pence.

Does Pence win Trump with the National Security crowd who are in the middle, moderates (like say Condi Rice would have). No of course not. What about the business wing of the party, also in the middle. Moderates? (..if alleged Billionaire and supposedly solvent and self-proclaimedly successful ‘businessman’ Donald Trump in gold letters, has not won over the business wing, nobody will). Of course not. How about the modest-size Libertarian wing who is lukewarm to Trump and who have their rival candidate in Johnson? No of course not, Pence is the epitome of anti-Libertarian bathroom police nonsense the Libertarians hate.

MIDWESTERN GOVERNOR

But he’s a Midwestern sitting Governor. Surely that will help in the battles for Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota. Really? Those are MODERATE states that tend to lean blue, not red. Pence is a highly divisive Governor who only won by under 3% and didn’t get to 50% of the vote, in a 3-way race in his only Governor election (he would be up for re-election now but cannot run on both tickets, so the Republicans of Indiana have to get a new candidate to run). That was before his severely conservative agenda that has alienated many of his voters, damaged his state, and has his popularity in the toilet right now. In May his popularity was measured at 40%. This guy to be ‘popular’ in neighboring states that are less red? Me thinks not.

Those racists and extremists, under-educated white older male voters who loved Trump in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin etc, they have already discovered their man. The rest hate Trump. Putting disliked Pence next to Trump will not help Trump win those states. A MODERATE Governor like Kasich or Christie would have helped. Not an extremist like Pence. Trump already has that end of the electorate cornered.

What Pence will do, is he will move some national polling into Trump’s favor (to a moderate degree, taking mostly from undecideds, rarely from Hillary) but this will be counterbalanced and possibly hidden in the noise that is tumbling the polling now (Conventions, Hillary’s VP pick, and Bernie’s endorsement). But the point is - those voters will be in RED STATES and among religious voters. Trump’s performance will improve in Oklahoma, Alabama, North Dakota etc. Those are states Trump will win anyway. He was in no danger there. If we see some improvement nationally in Trump's polling after Pence is on the ticket, that national polling is reflected in RED states. What Pence spectacularly fails to do, is to help Trump win in the middle, in the purple states, and among Independent and moderate voters. The moderates do not like him and the more they learn of him and hear him speak, the more they will hate this ticket. Pence is a typical conservative who is against most populist positions that American voters want in 2016 like minimum wage, gun control, equal pay, environmental controls etc. Then Pence helps energize women (if that was needed) against this ticket because of the severe anti-abortion stands he’s taken. Meanwhile he will activate the LGBT community to lead a minority voter revolt against Pence because of the ‘religious freedom’ ie anti-gays legislation he pushed for and signed in a lavish press event.

A NICE LITTLE NAZI

So then what of Mr Mike Pence? He is a Tea Party member. He has never seen a war he didn’t love. He voted for the Iraq war. He paraded in Iraq claiming the area was peaceful when John McCain had arranged a huge defensive force to keep that area quiet for the press event (oh, its THAT guy, yeah..). But his perhaps most cute idea was an official Indiana Government propaganda media channel, like Russia Today is for Putin. A formal Indiana government propaganda vehicle, paid of course, by taxpayer dollars, to celebrate how great a Governor Pence was. That was ridiculed even by most conservatives and eventually the idea was killed. When the USA took in Syrian refugees Pence tried to block them from coming to Indiana (but was unsuccessful). As to intellect and ability, at best considered a mediocre mind if we want to be kind. He's not a moron like fellow Indianan Dan Quayle but this is no rocket scientist. What he does know, however, is to speak Republican. He knows how to sound like one of the good old boys of the rich white man's party. That is our Mike Pence. A nice little Nazi alongside David Duke's personal fave candidate Donald Trump. Yeah he'll go over real well with moderate voters... NOT! Mike Pence, duschebag, with values and beliefs wonderfully well aligned with Trump. Its like its Trump and his new MiniMe.

There is a little bit of nuance here, if Trump felt he hadn't quite hit every note in his bigoted campaign. So take women. Trump has been remarkably insulting to women yes, but he hasn't advocated hostile anti-women positions (at least, not consistently). So women may have felt that Trump sounded nasty but was still just a big pussycat. Not anymore with Pence. He has been consistently fighting against women his whole career. But Pence never really was rude towards women, he just pursued an agenda that wanted women back into the kitchen and to put abortions into the back alleys. Meanwhile the gays. Trump had been rather good at his hostility to Mexicans and Muslims and Jews (and women) but Trump seemed to have a soft spot to gays. That was one minority group that Trump had not hit particularly strongly yet. Mike Pence fixes that deficit. He's probably the one Governor most hated by the LGBT community. Good job Trump, you have managed to still prove your Campaign is ever more bigoted than what we've seen in the past 13 months.

And on a personal note - I didn't know this until I researched Pence a bit deeper now as the VP gossip got stronger. Mike Pence is one of those exceptionally despicable politician-whores who sells his beliefs for organizational killers. He has taken massive amounts of cigarette industry funding and then dares to proclaim that cigarettes don't kill. Scumbag. Go f*ck yourself and your pretend-Christian values. You are a disgrace. Mass-murderer. I will laugh really hard when you lose with Trump, Mike Pence. You are precisely why so many people hate politics.

Once again Trump has managed to not help his campaign. Did this dramatically hurt it, perhaps not much. Might be a little bit. That also gets the modest bump in national polling from the religious voters so perhaps its a wash. But consider how much stronger the ticket would have been if someone like Marco Rubio was on the trail campaigning for Trump as his VP or say Nikki Haley or Condi Rice or Susana Martinez. This was a huge wasted opportunity and it will not significantly move the race in Trump’s favor. He managed to pick a real loser. Democrats will sigh a big sigh of relief on this one.

PS Massive MASSIVE opportunity now for Hillary to pick Julian Castro as her VP and mobilize the Hispanic voter base where there is no Rubio or Martinez or Cruz on the Republican ticket.

Thank you to reader Andrea McKellar (@AMcKellar on Twitter) for spotting the error in Nikki Haley's state (obviously its South not North Carolina, now corrected)

Average Smartphone User Touches Screen 2,617 Times Per Day in 76 Separate Sessions

We have rare usage data on smartphones. Research by DScout using a special tool to capture every time a smartphone user touched a screen (so typing each letter of a word would count as one touch each time) and found that the average smartphone user touches the screen 2,617 times per day. This is across 76 separate sessions that use the screen (we also look at and touch other parts of the phone during the day such as plugging it in to get recharged). This is another very interesting view to how addicted we are to the smartphone and is consistent with the previous research that the average smartphone user looks at their phone 221 times per day. But how cool is this study? Now we know the number of times we touch the screen. 2,617 times per day. And 76 separate sessions (involving activity that touches the screen). So we start another new activity on the smartphone screen once every 12 minutes and 38 seconds of every waking hour of every day, 7 days a week (on average). Note heavy users like you and me, its 5,427 times we touch the smartphone screen daily (in 132 separate sessions). And for time spent with the smartphone screen? Average user 2 hours 25 minutes per day. Heavy users spend 3 hours 45 minutes on the smartphone screen daily. Yes. Do share. These are awesome new numbers for us helping explain the the level of addiction.

Pokemon Go: Is AR for real? 12 Million playing a half Billion dollar annual revenue game by revenues already, on Augmented Reality

I said Augmented Reality would be the 8th Mass Media (to be fair, Raimo van der Klein then CEO of Layar the AR company, said it first). And we've gone quite a while since the iButterfly rage and seemed like AR might slip into the annals of forgotten tech of vast promise but no reality. And now we get Pokemon Go.

It was beta-tested in Japan since April and in selected other countries since. It was formally launched a week ago. Pokemon Go is an AR Augmented Reality game played with smartphones. The Pokemon Go gaming app has already more than 10 million downloads on Android, over 2 million on iOS (so total users over 12 million in supremely rapid ramp-up) and the game delivers daily revenues already of 1.5 million dollars. Thats an annual revenue run-rate of 550 million dollars, even if the user numbers stalled to the current levels. A Half-Billion Dollar revenue game, that has exploded onto smartphone screens in the past week. A game that has an average revenue per gamer of 3.75 dollars per month.

So for those who have been living under a rock during their summer vacation - Pokemon Go has virtual Pokemon characters lurking in cyberspace, waiting to be caught. You see them only through the Pokemon Go AR app, after its installed onto your smartphone. Then you use your smartphone like a special Pokemon-binoculars, and you look into the world around you, and voila! you spot a Pokemon. Obviously this is geared to those who are of the right age to actually grow up with the (lovely?) Pokemon characters. To catch one, you have to toss a virtual ball and hit the Pokemon character (so it has some of that fun of Angry Birds ballistics also in it). And this franchise has something like over 150 characters already now out, from the original collector card set. The full Pokemon series runs up to over 700 characters, so expect more to appear. And there are apparently some types that exist in various locations so the Pokemon Go game knows the area, so a water-oriented Pokemon needs to be caught at the lake or river or sea, and some characters appear only at night, etc. Ok, enough of the game. You collect (and fight) virtual monsters that are only visible through a smartphone screen. An AR game. With 12 million gamers in one week !!!! Its fully freemium based, you can play it totally free, but also you can buy all sorts of virtual properties to make it more fun. Earning already 1.5 million dollars daily. Judging by when the original Pokemon craze was on, I'd guess most gamers are between 15 and 25 years of age, that would seem like a pretty darned attractive gamer target too. And differing from most videogames, this one brings gamers OUTDOORS where you go to hunt the Pokemons, so it blends reality and virtuality - exactly as Augmented Reality was intended to do.

So with that. A few reminders. My original. TEDx Talk explaining what is Augmented Reality and why it is the next mass media ie 8th mass media (Print, recordings, cinema, radio, TV, internet and mobile were the first 7 mass media as we know). This video has had over 40,000 viewings (thanks) and is one of my best presentations, very very widely referenced (thank you). In it I discuss what I imagined AR will be like once it becomes a mass media towards the end of the decade. There are elements of Pokemon Go in those early examples that I show. If you have a colleague who doesn't believe in AR, tell them to go see the video. Its the 'primer' to what is AR and why it will be a NEW mass media, not just a media FORMAT for older media.

Then I have two updates to that story. I have forecasted that AR as a mass media will reach an audience of 1 Billion paying users by year 2020 (we are on track with that number, and for context, newspapers have a global circulation of less than half that number). So I did the keynote to the Augmented Reality Expo in California where I calculated the projection and said we were on track to hit that 1 Billion audience for AR by year 2020. This may be very relevant to the Pokemon Go discussion and enthusiasm now. So if you haven't seen it, go see my Keynote to AWE.

And for those who live in the Emerging World, who are wondering, will AR ever be relevant to their markets. I spoke at an event in South Africa, where I was interviewed about the potential of AR to South Africa and that presentation is also very relevant to all of the Emerging World. So see this short interview about AR and what thresholds can we consider when will AR become viable in the Emerging World countries.

Yes Augmented Reality will be the 8th Mass Media. It will be as different from mobile and the internet, as TV is different from cinema, or how much radio is different from music recordings. And Pokemon Go? Great concept Nintendo. May your Pokemon characters take over the planet haha...

Two in Three Apple Watch Owners Won't Buy Next Version (Told You So)

Here we are, those who bought Apple Watches have been playing with their iToys. Some utterly love their iGadgets. But most who were duped into buying the expensive tech jewelry were disappointed or don't find any reason to upgrade. A fresh survey of Apple Watch owners by Quartz finds that two thirds won't be buying the new edition. And this turns out pretty much exactly as I predicted. The gadget does not have the appeal of the mobile phone/smartwatch (an Apple Watch is not even technically 'mobile' because you have to tether it to an iPhone for its functionality meaning it is 'only' an accessory, differing from those smart watches that do their own connectivity like say Samsung's Galaxy Gear smart watches). And I said the life of the Apple Watch will be two genations, the second generation will not sell as well as the first, and then Apple will quietly shut down this silly cul-de-sac of tech innovation. We are nearing the half-point of that prediction and the signs say.. those who buy Apple Watches do not on the whole fall in love with the idea of the metal on the wrist. It is a poor technology solution and will not replace the smartphone. Hence, it will fail as a business idea. Apple is on that path now, to ending the Apple Watch after the second edition. Here is your link to the Quartz survey

For those who want to re-visit my original analysis and insights and forecasts related to Apple Watch: Here is my original evaluation of the Apple Watch concept and its market potential from October 2014. And here is my 'final' analysis of Apple Watch, once it was launched and we saw how disappointing it really turned out to be in March 2015.

From Smartphone Side.. Foxconn/Hon Hai buys ex-Nokia giant phone factory in Vietnam from Microsoft

A note from the tech side. Microsoft has just sold its giant phone factory in Vietnam to Foxconn/Hon Hai. It will be used to make dumbphones AND smartphones. I think this still is or at least at some point recently was the world's largest phone factory. My thanks to my Twitter follower @WeirdHongKong who caught the story and flagged it for me. It was reported in the Digitimes. Now all you smartphone-fan readers, this is your chance to bring your eternal battle of smartphone dominance discussion to this thread haha... enjoy. PS big relevance? Not really. Foxconn/Hon Hai is dead serious about growing to become the master of phone manufacturing and obviously is very deeply intending to make that phone business purchase from Microsoft work out.