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July 23, 2016



Hi Tomi,

Good analysis but you didn't mention the main reason why Clinton chose Kaine: national security. Tim Kaine serves on the Senate’s Foreign Relations and Armed Services committees. With the waive of terrorist attacks the national security issue has become one of the most important issues for this election. And Clinton needs to kill Trump's claim of being the "law and order candidate". BTW Trump instigates racial hatred but he is the law and order candidate. What a joke he is.
And I can't end my comment without congratulating myself for correctly indicating the VP again. I wish Clinton chose Castro but apparently he had some baggage. He broke a federal law by endorsing Clinton. Kaine seems a far safer pick. And it makes sense because Clinton is leading so a safe pick consolidates her chances of being elected.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi cornelius

Great points (and congrats, good call!). I agree the committee experiences are valuable but probably not the highest priority for her, because Hillary already has impeccable foreign policy credentials herself. Trump coulda used that kind of a pick haha, he 'needs' it while with Hillary it only enhances her strenghts in an area she already dominates over Trump. Although of course Trump has managed to over-propaganda the voters that somehow screaming about terrorism makes him the stronger candidate on that issue. I think he will hold that edge up to the first debate, and after that debate, that attribute will shift to yet another area where Hillary leads, because, obviously, Trump is clueless of how to solve terrorism and his solutions are essentially magical thinking. The terrorism will be defeated because, Trump, of course. So in that way, Kaine as VP won't help any more with those who aren't thinking, than before. BUT it is a further item showing Kaine is fully qualified to step in as VP (vs say Dan Quayle or Sarah Palin haha) and yes, for Hillary, a foreign policy hawk, his foreign policy credentials matter and do help.

On Castro yeah, the gossip took him out of the top discussion several weeks ago. I thought it was a head-fake, she had decided (that it was Castro) and therefore put him off, onto the back burner and kept other names on the forefront to make it a bigger splash when he (Castro) was then brought out. I was wrong. This is the most risk-free way to proceed (typical Hillary, why did I think otherwise) and she signalled a long time in advance who she liked, then narrowed her field, then the gossip very late said it was likely Kaine or Vilsack, and it was Kaine. This way nobody is surprised and the Democratic supporters have had plenty of time to prepare for the eventual Kaine pick, good especially as he clearly is a very well suited candidate.

BTW interesting angle on how to use Obama in the race (that we haven't seen in decades). When Trump has a big moment and does something that seems to catch fire, but in typical Trump, it also has errors in it - Obama arranges a big press event and then lambasts Trump simply for the errors in Trump's facts. Obama doesn't have to say 'and I endorsed Hillary' but he, as a highly respected, highly liked sitting President, can come out and call out Trump for his lies. As long as they don't do this every day haha, this can be a VERY effective approach to deflate some of Trump's hysteria and hyperbole.

The battle is on several fronts currently. There is a traditional middle ground undecided Independent voter. This 'rational' argument, that Trump numbers are not accurate - that helps here and Obama is a great messenger. Then there is a contest for moderate Republicans, especially on foreign policy/national security matters; but also on free trade capitalism arguments. That is a group that is in play, and devastatingly for Trump, many moderate Republicans are obviously saying Trump is wrong (and a few have already endorsed Hillary, many more will come onboard especially in the NATO mess aftermath). A third battle is for Bernie voter support. Bernie's speech at the Convention is very important in this but also Elizabeth Warren. And it would be good to have Bernie on the road a couple of times very visibly with Hillary (both of them may not want to do this). And to a lesser degree, I sense that some religious voters are in play. The 'evangelical' voters are very strongly solidifying around Trump but the continued fights with Ted Cruz do not help, and now a 'devout' Catholic Tim Kaine, who volunteered as a missionary abroad, that should help draw some seriously religious voters away from the very nasty and un-religious Trump. I would expect that a (modest) bunch of religious leaders will come to the Clinton-Kaine ticket where they were against Obama-Biden in 2012 and 2008.

Haha one Republican Senator said of Kaine (in a Tweet) that he was trying to think of something bad to say, and could not think of anything (as a kind of backhanded complement to someone on the other side).

Tomi Ahonen :-)


"First off, he’s ready to be President ‘on Day 1’ [...]" -- Tomi Ahonen

That's the scary part; there's no disincentive to the crazies out there.


Tomi: Typo, 3rd paragraph:

"(what Trump’s VP, Tim Pence lacks totally)"

Is it Tim or Mike?


Hillary is behind Trump in one imprtant demographic: Older white men. Will Kaine help here?

Maybe Hillaries deep data has directed her choice?


Donald says it like it is, about why he chose Pence:

"See, now if I don't win, I'm going to blame Mike, right? We have to blame Mike."

Donald Trump just gave another absolutely epic press conference

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi grouch & Winter

grouch - on disincentive.. ouch, oops. True. On the typo thanks, obviously Mike not Tim. have corrected it.

Winter - LOL yeah true. If Hillary wins white WOMEN (always vote more Republican than Democrat) she's home safely and she's ALREADY up on them now, before her convention even starts. The white men can go haha themselves.. (or talk to an empty chair like Clint Eastwood).

On the Dumpster Trumpster, gosh he is a character. He just can't stop himself and he will just dig dig dig, his hole gets deeper and deeper. There was a good pundit on one of the news shows, I think it was Steve Schmidt the GOP strategist for McCain who said that because the big GOP money is sitting on the sidelines, the Convention ORGANIZATION was a key to them whether the Trump campaign is 'worth investing in' - and that he's never seen as disorganized and poorly run campaign - then he listed the long series of MANAGEMENT problems related to the Convention, all signalling a horrid campaign for the Autumn - and Steve argued that this means, most of that money will not come in. They see its a lost cause.

But now, after he was hoping for a Convention bounce? Trump re-starts old fights with Ted Cruz. (this will help 'heal' a horribly divided party, for sure). Then Trump said haha, I can't believe this but why not, its Trump - that the National Enquirer should win a Pulitzer. And for those who haven't lived in the USA, the National Enquirer is the tabloid newspaper that regularly discovers Elvis is still alive or they interview the guy who was just abducted by the UFO etc. This cheapest pulp fiction is to Trump worthy of the highest prize of journalism. Sure thing Trump. You're clearly sane and have good judgment and should be allowed to run the country.

Now Trump discovered his fave nickname for Tim Kaine - its 'corrupt Kaine' alongside crooked Hillary and Pocahontas.. well. Some of his nicknames have some 'merit' ie low-energy of Jeb Bush for example, but Kaine, certainly is NOT known for corruption (but both Trump and Mike Pence ARE, why do you raise this issue, moron Trump?). But yeah.

And then he's been allowed onto Twitter again, unmonitored. He was on with a new Tweet bringing back 'Pocahontas' again. Just when we thought he had abandoned this racial slur, and that Trump might be a bit more presidential (his official Tweet about the shooting in Germany was very subdued - obviously not authored by Trump himself) but now, he's on the loose and again Tweeting wantonly. Pocahontas! (and Trump has no idea all this is further damaging him).

Oh, one of the big anti-Trump papers has now declared Trump insane; while the Washington Post has broken with tradition and made its choice already now, before the Democratic Convention has even started - and declared it will not be considering Trump for its eventual editorial endorsement of a candidate for President. Yeah. Mr Presidential..

At some point I do expect a trickle of registered Republicans to start to un-endorse Trump. He's now past the Convention and still his 'Trump 3.0' conversion is not holding. The party is headed for an epic loss and the sane members of the party have to start to consider their way out. And I can see a trickle of un-endorsements becoming a flood even - haha, and THEN it would be funny to see, if Mike Pence himself said in the last days just before the election when the polls are saying 20% landslide catastrophe - I will not vote for Trump for President but I will vote for myself as VP haha... (no, Pence cannot do it, he's screwed and can't get out of it)

Tomi Ahonen :-)


The US got the best family man their politics had to offer, ever and you know how they appreciated it.

With Obama, the Personal Is Presidential

Compare this role model of a husband and father with this

Make America Hate Again

"The man who couldn’t manage his own convention, the creator of a “university” built on fraud, bet his shot at the top job in the world on a panicked public and collective amnesia of his serial misdeeds. “I will restore law and order to our country, believe me, believe me,” he said.

And the instigator of four corporate bankruptcies, the man who stiffed plumbers and carpenters, the failed casino owner, promised to use his dark arts to “make our country rich again.”

One of the main speeches, that of Melania Trump, was stolen in part from the wife of a president that Donald Trump has long tried to delegitimize. That and the speech of Ivanka Trump, which would have fit perfectly at a Democratic convention, were the only hints of hope."

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

OMG.. Kasich is now torpedoing Trump. He just said Trump probably can't win Ohio because he's too divisive. OUCH. (its the revenge on Trump's attacks on Trump. VERY VERY smart by Kasich, wait until after Convention but make sure it gets into the press.. also sets up Kasich very clearly among the sane minds when the retributions and expulsions start when the GOP will go through its reformation after November)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

WOW. Home run! This is EXACTLY how you do a Veep launch. Wow. Hillary, a little attack on Trump but most of the speech is just immense admiration of Kaine in her intro. Then Kaine, he attacks Trump more and talks about his personal background with good stories, but also shows great admiration of Hillary. This is HOW you do the Veep intro event. Perfection. Perfection. Perfection.

Tomi Ahonen :-)


"This is HOW you do the Veep intro event. Perfection."

And "sources close to the campaign" have leaked to the press that Hillary favored Kaine because he could take over the presidency from day one.
Perfection indeed.


You could not make this up:

Trump’s “Working America” Ad Features A Dutch Stock Photo Model

The photo, which can be seen on Shutterstock, is from Ysbrand Cosijn, a photographer based in Haarlem, Netherlands.


Btw, the model is called Jan Jonkhout.


These 3 Charts Show Why Donald Trump Will Lose in November

Its the economy, stupid.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Winter

Gosh, thats AGAIN so Trumpian. His Americans in work are of course foreigners, outsourced work. But this IS Amateur hour. They don't have enough staff to do proper planning and proper execution (or do things like original photographs haha)

Oh, is it Jan? I know Jan. Jan Jonkhout, gosh yeah, I know Jan. No I don't, I'm just kidding :-)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Wayne Borean

I've done some heavy thinking about Hillary's VP pick. While I would have preferred several other options, in a lot of ways Kaine makes excellent sense.

1) The older white male vote - Kaine is one of them.

2) The older vote - many older people, no matter what background, still believe that having a vagina and female hormones makes a person unstable. If Hillary gets unstable Kaine can take over.

3) The older vote - many older people believe that Democrats are the party of blacks, browns, asians, etc. Kaine will not give that impression.

4) The older religious vote - many older people are upset that younger people don't go to church, and that the Democrats have backed Muslims, Buddhists, Atheists, and all those others who don't believe the way they do. Kaine is a staunch Catholic.

We have a lesbian, married to her long term partner as Premier of the Province of Ontario. The reactions to her by a certain percentage of the population have been extremely negative. Many of the people reacting this way wish that Ontario was still in the Fifties, which to many of them seems a perfect time.

Kaine gives people who think like that an out. They can vote for Hillary knowing that a good, religious man stands ready to push her aside and take over if her hormones cause her to loose it, and decide to declare war on the Ducky of Grand Fenwick.

He's not perfect. They'd rather of had him as the Democratic Presidential candidate instead of Hillary. But he is a safety vale for when she does loose it, which she assuredly will, being a woman.

There are a hell of a lot of people who think like this. Too damned many in my opinion.

But demographically they are a shrinking breed. By the next election their numbers will have dropped significantly, and Hillary will have proven that she can govern without her hormones causing her to loose it.

Millard Filmore

Here I am working away in my hotel room, bored with CNN so surfed on over to Bloomberg ... on the right under Top News was a blurb that Trump will create Super PACs dedicated to crushing Cruz and Kasich in future runs they might make.

Its what any good honorable conservative or Republican would do, right?

Wayne Borean

On Donald Trump and Civil Rights

Wayne Borean

There's an attempt to change or eliminate Super Delegates in the Democratic Party


The Dumpster just keeps on giving...

Isn't political speech supposed to be the most protected of all speech by the 1st Amendment?

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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