As a European, I am sorry about the Brexit vote but I do acknowledge, it is democracy in action. Thats fair. Britain wants to separate from European union, so be it. There are too many close ties for Britain to become truly isolated, some border matters become a bit more cumbersome and likely in the short run the UK will suffer in terms such as a recession and some longer term business benefits etc. London will still be a major tourist attraction for global tourists and the world will not end. BUT, as this was Brexit, the vote of British Exit from the European Union, where US Presidential candidate Donald Trump had been vocally in support of Brexit, lets explore a horror scenario. Lets have the worst possible events now follow, and push the planet to World War 3. And lets give the US election in November to Trump, and lets further explore the bizarre statements from Trump that could suggest bizarre changes in US alliances and loyalties in that WW3. This is pure fiction and utterly implausible as a total scenario (although some individual elements may occur) but some ‘expert’ such as say Sarah Palin or Dr Ben Carson could perhaps even guide a President Trump to this type of directions.
After all, it was Sarah Palin who read ‘all the newspapers’ and whose foreign policy competence came out of her home state, Alaska having geographic proximity to Russia; and Dr Ben Carson thinks Egyptian Pyramids were built to be grain storage. Note that Trump has said he’d consider Sarah Palin for a Cabinet post. He’ll be campaigning with Sarah next week. And Dr Carson, he was said to be heading Trump’s vetting process for the VP slot (although very soon it became obvious Carson was nowhere near that actual job). And this from Trump who said his Cabinet would be the brightest people. Yeah, I think when Trump says ‘brightest’ he means that as much as when he said he has the best memory and then couldn’t remember saying that.
BREXIT AND SCOTLAND
So lets start my scenario. Boris Johnson (another weird hair dude) the former Mayor of London becomes the new Prime Minister as David Cameron just stepped down. Boris’s support back home, literally, in London is dismal - Londoners voted 75/25 against Brexit. So Boris faces daily protests and jeers as he starts his new job. Things don’t go well. The British economy crashes into a recession. The Europeans who were struggling to trust Cameron, now have to deal with the hostile Anti-EU crowd in charge and tempers flare. The banking and finance industry starts its own Brexit, moving staff and some HQs from London to Frankfurt, Paris, Zurich, Amsterdam and Dublin. And the Scots, they scream for a new Independence vote (Scotland voted 67/33 against Brexit). And the Irish start their own independence drive and even the sleepy Welsh suddenly wake up to Wales Independence (although this is still, typically, Welsh and sleepy).
Prime Minister Boris Johnson says not now, the Scots just had one Independence vote last year, they won’t get another now. They have to wait .. years, maybe a decade. This angers the Scots more. Meanwhile the changes start on the borders. As Britain stops free transit of European Union citizens into the UK, of course the EU retaliates and suddenly long lines form where both sides demand all sorts of nonsense in new and constantly changing visa forms. The visas are approved instantly on the spot for anyone holding an European Union or British passport but the paperwork is cumbersome. This impacts the normal British border crossings like Heathrow and the Eurostar train across the Channel Tunnel but far more angry border crossings become those in Ireland and with Gibraltar. Northern Ireland now has to re-institute its formal border with Ireland and require normal passport inspections. The visa requirements and paperwork anger the Irish.
This fuels a return of Northern Irish separatist emotions and those working the border are accused of being English lackies and loyalists. Anger from long lines soon bursts into various violent episodes and then the first spontaneous attacks on border guards and .. the return of Irish terrorism. Boris Johnson responds by increasing police numbers and sends in some military. This hostility in turn angers the Scots out of solidarity who demand a vote on independence - and now in an age of social media and various selfie-stunts, some Scots start to cross over the border to Northern England (the English in the countryside voted overwhelmingly to leave the EU) to start hooliganism and vandalism aimed at English landowners on the Southern side of the Scotland-England border. A bizarre instagram-inspired modern variant to ‘happy slapping’ creates a craze of Scottish teens raiding Northern English farms setting various objects on fire at night and videorecording it on their smartphones and posting to social media, as an ever escallating contest of mischief and property damage. The local police are overwhelmed, Boris sends more soldiers to patrol the border. Trump chimes in from America and says: build a wall! The rebellion in Wales is still rubbing sleep out of its eyes and forgets to mention their intended support of the Irish or Scots.
TRUMP RISES
Trump gets past a contentious Convention in the USA, continues his various rants and nonsense, some days he sounds nearly sane, other days he goes on rants and he cannot avoid the thrill of his passionate audiences when he mentions The Wall and that Mexico will pay for it. Trump also surprises nobody by launching his TrumpTV during the general election process, as the new right-wing propaganda channel with so extreme hostile views it makes Fox News seem rational. Meanwhile Hillary Clinton is far ahead in the polls but the negotiations with Bernie Sanders simply never produce a result and she says, enough. I will not give Bernie a speaking slot at her Convention. Bernie in turns decides to hold his own alternate Convention and launches his independent run, even as he is unable to get to all states onto the ballot anymore. Bernie escapes all scrutiny by most right-wing media because they want Hillary the front-runner to lose. The strong lead in Hillary’s polling is suddenly split, as Bernistas bolt to the wacky old uncle-Socialist. And polls for the general election suddenly show a slight Trump lead. In a 5-way race, with Bernie on the very left, then the next left is the Green Party, then Hillary on the moderate-left, the Libertarian party on the moderate-right, Trump pushes to the extreme right and returns to his white nationalist, isolationist, populist anti-globalist rhetoric - partly energized by the Brexit late success in the British referendum vote.
Hillary Clinton has a ‘health episode’ and is out of campaigning for 6 days, then returns seeming quite weak for the next week. Everybody gossips she’s had a heart attack. Then in very unfortunate timing, Hillary defends some Obama statement about not all Muslims being violent. This has very inopportune timing as finally ISIS succeeds in a nasty bombing plot hitting New York, London, Paris, and Moscow killing hundreds in each city. Trump uses the paranoia about ISIS - and Hillary’s inopportunely timed comments - to run up the election fears and ends up winning the election. Trump even win his home state - New York was attacked - and runs off to a big landslide victory - in a clearly white supremacists, white racists, isolationist agenda. He only takes 38% of the national vote but as Hillary splits votes with four others including Bernie, she ends with 35% and as New York votes blue, the Electoral College goes to Trump. Trump’s election victory also brings in every more wacky members to Congress that make Louie Gohmert seem positively coherent. Similarly many loonie Governors are elected so that LePage of Maine no longer holds the title of nuttiest Governor. But also in the weird 5-way race, some states go to Hillary such as Texas, Arizona and Utah, partly by the strong Mormon vote against Trump, partly by the strong Hispanic vote against Trump, partly by the strong female vote against Trump and partly by a strong generic anti-Trump vote. Still, in a clear election victory, Trump becomes President.
THE POLICE STATE
The bombings in each of the four megacities causes a similar reaction of nationalism, where the local governments seize more control, curtail the press, institute various police actions that limit individual freedoms - and run emergency upgrades to the police and bring in military to police their major cities (well, in Russia this is already normal so in Moscow its just more of the same). The Paris attacks unite Europeans in the EU to fear Muslims more, but to fear all foreigners - including now the British. In the UK the terrorist attack is used by Boris Johnson and his government to institute heavy-handed anti-terrorist laws - which also impact the hooliganism on the Scottish border and the violence on the Irish border. Both fuel a backlash of nationalism and actual terrorism locally, attacking police and miliatry bases. Gibraltar sees violence on its border with Spain. Britain is in severe economic crisis, brings in all NATO troops it has abroad, to help the police at home, including soldiers based in Gibraltar, leaving it to a small police force only to try to maintain border security.
Police brutality and military use on the Irish border turns into violent clashes now with a fully re-arming IRA and now cries of Irish Lives Matter. Ireland is bordering on a civil war. Scotland sees a similar escallation, on some highways, large obstacles are placed with check-points and then actual concrete barriers brought in - which becomes the new Hadrian’s Wall, the Boris Wall that starts to be erected between most used crossing points between Scotland and England. The Scottish coin the brilliant phrase Scottish Lives Matter. Trump again stuffs his foot in his mouth saying he loves the Scotch (the whisky, not the people). The uprising in Wales has now gotten its first cup of tea and are babbling in their weird language but nobody else yet takes any notice. Scotland demands a vote for Independence. Ireland joins in its demand. Boris Johnson says no. The Scottish Parliament takes a vote of Independence and declares its independence from Britain, and applies for instant admission to the European Union. Local police departments in Edinburg, Glasgow and Aberdeen are all overrun and start to fly a Scottish flag. Belfast in Northern Ireland is in total revolt by now and the city soon sees its ‘Arabic Spring’ uprising where the Irish flag is now flying also in major Irish towns. Boris Johnson considers sending the military to retake the cities. The Welsh issue statements of strong support of the Scottish and Irish independence, but do it only in their own language which then is ignored by everybody.
RE-EMERGENCE OF EFTA
In the Brexit economic climate, Britain starts to rebuild EFTA, the European Free Trade Association, the anti-EU grouping that Britain built after World War 2, in response to the French-German led EEC, predecessor to the EU. Norway, not part of the EU, joins EFTA. Switzerland, not part of the EU, joins EFTA. Turkey angry at its delays to get into the EU, is fast-tracked to join EFTA as well. Greece suffers through another financial crisis and votes to exit the EU and right after Grexit, the nation join EFTA. Portugal has its own Potsit, departs the EU and joins EFTA (another ex EFTA member). Finland, yet another EFTA member asks to join both, to which the opportunistic British say, of course you may join EFTA without departing the EU, and Finland is not Finnished with the EU and joins EFTA. Czech and Sloval republics look at all this European disintegration in despair, and in a weird protest decision and referendum, have a ‘Velvet Reunification’ vote and reunite to form Czechoslovakia with no practical effect, as they continue having separate Czech and Slovak governments and flags and both remain in the EU. But Slovenia protests that it is frequently confused for Slovakia, and has its Sloxit departing the EU, but keeping the Euro, and joining EFTA. The rest of the balkans deteriorate into another decade-long mess where nobody really knows is it Serbo-Macenia or CroAlbania or Yugo-Yugo stan-stan. They are all expelled from the EU and not accepted to EFTA either, while they sort out their local mess. The Italians laugh hysterically next door - you thought WE had a messy government?
PUTIN RISING
As Europe has its reaction to the Paris bombing and starts to clamp down on civil liberties and takes various actions to monitor and control - and deport - Muslims and various recent immigrants, there is regional violence. Local armies are asked to join police in keeping the peace in cities. This depletes the barracks from many NATO military bases. Meanwhile in the transition period in the USA, from Obama to Trump, Obama starts the pull-back of US troops from NATO bases as Trump had promised to bring American troops back and clearly it was the will of the people in the national vote, that US troops need to come home. The global warming-caused severe weather extremes produces a bitterly cold November. Vladimir Putin in Russia plays his gas pipeline extortion ploy and raises the price of gas to Europe. And simultaneously Putin escallates the war with Ukraine. NATO complains but as Ukraine is not a member of NATO, is not obligated to send any military support. Europe is toothless anyway with most countries never bothering to spend enough to keep their militaries strong, and what they have, are now policing their cities to try to keep terrorism out. But Germany and other Western and Northern European nation strong protests about Russia in Ukraine. Hungary meanwhile, has a sudden instant ‘referendum’ and declares its population has voted for Huxit. And Hungary leaves the EU. Totally coincidentally at that time, Putin rewards Hungary with very low cost energy in the cold winter. Hungary joins EFTA.
The war against ISIS in Syria is slowly won by Assad’s troops supported by Russia. On the Iraq side the war is won by Iraq government troops supported by Iran. Trump pledges to withdraw all US military from this civil war, leave it for the Russians and Iranians to deal with. Suddenly Russia, Iran and Syria announce a military alliance. As they push the ever more brutal last forces of ISIS towards the North, they breach ever more into Turkey bringing horrible terrorist attacks everywhere from Istanbul to Ankara. The Turkish government responds with ever more heavy-handed means, and as American and European support is not coming, they rely ever more on the happily provided support from .. Putin. An informal four-way alliance forms around the battle against the remainder of ISIS - where Turkey allies with Syria, Iran and their weapons, military training and air power (and for Turkey, low cost gas) come from Russia. The Kurds are once again left out of everybody’s calculations and escape into the mountains.
In North Korea Kim Jong Un detonates a successful hydrogen bomb and tests successfully a submarine-launched long range ballistic missile. It then detonates a small-size fission nuclear warhead so small it fits on the submarine launched missile. Japan and South Korea are alarmed as President Obama pulls US naval assets back from their shores to Pearl Harbor in Hawaii. Because of the continuing protests against the US base in Okinawa, and as incoming President Trump had promised to close the Okinawa base anyway, Obama starts the withdrawal from the Okinawa base. Japan starts secretly its nuclear weapon program and pivots its peaceful space rocket program into a ballistic missile project. South Korean cyberspies soon discover this, and the South Korean government also institutes its rival project, but with the demand that they need to finish ahead of the Japanese.
SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE
In Britain the border situations in Ireland and Scotland becomes untolerable. The Welsh have now started to demand their own independence. Then the IRA brings its terror bombing back to London. Now the Scottish independence fighters join in this terror plot. Of course they are all ‘UK citizens’ the Northern Irish and Scottish and thus have legal rights to come to England. And a whole range of terror bombings start, mostly targeting police and military and government buildings. These are joined by ISIS related bombings and for a few weeks in January there are too many bombs going on in London for 24 hour news channels to be able to keep up with the count. Locals flee. Many European-born residents of London return to Europe. In an emergency session, Boris Johnson approves Scottish Independence. The Northern Irish then follow declaring their independence in a violent brief civil war, which at this time is beyond the hands of London and Boris Johnson also approves that Independence. The Northern Irish join the Republic of Ireland and also return to become members of the EU again. Scotland formally joins the EU as a new country. The Welsh demand their independence.
The ongoing violence across the ever-expanding ‘Boris Wall’ between now the two independent nations. Scotland and England, brings about more violence and hooliganism and various local incidents. English nationalist rebels start to run similar attacks to the Scottish side vandalizing farms and land and doing small-scale bombings in Southern parts of Scotland. A new Scottish militia is rapidly raised to patrol the border. The two armies face off, with border clashes.
In the USA, Trump becomes the next President and issues a series of executive orders and many draconian measures to grab more power, limit the press, and give police and military more power. He issues a global withdrawal order of all US military from foreign bases, which he orders to be shut down, and he puts his US army to work on building.. the wall. Trump appoints a total Nazi as a Supreme Court justice and gets the Court to approve his abusive executive orders. Meanwhile the Congress controlled by ever more radical Republicans start their process of the bathroom wars and various mandatory gun-carry zones. As Trump starts to build the wall on the Mexican border, he also issues ever more insulting demands to Mexico, trying to extort Mexico to pay for the wall. As the construction is conducted by soldiers, many who were just recently in Afghanistan, a series of mishaps happen where soldiers think locals - Mexicans or Americans - near the border were ‘enemy’ and are shot. Some local civilians then start to shoot back and various militia incidents occur. Trump issues a construction-zone gun-free order which angers the border states. Across the border, the Mexican government is outraged and sends troops to the border to safeguard its citizens. The daily death count on the border rises from dozens to hundreds.
TEXIT
The recent Brexit, Scottish Independence, Irish Independence, Grexit and Huxit, have the Texans thinking that they actually hate that Yankee Trump dude who is building this silly wall on their border, and forbids them from their god-given right to carry firearms to the construction site. So Texas carries through on their legal right to withdraw from the Union (Texas is the only state that was an independent country before joining the USA, and it has a treaty in its joining, which states that Texas may secede if it so desires). As the nation laughs at this stunt in the Texas Legislature, the Texas local government rapidly executes its exit (Texit) and then the Texas National Guard expels US troops and cancels the border wall between Mexico and rapidly tears down what had been built. While Trump fumes in Washington, his right wing military advisors are aghast at attacking Texas - wait that was what Obama would have done - and refuse to obey Trump’s orders.
Then Texas signs a friendship, free trade and military alliance with Mexico (Tejas! We are friends!). Meanwhile Utah and Arizona demand their own independence from Trump the Tyrant (but their states have no such legal rights). As there is no practical physical border (yet), Free Texan rebels and militia now move en mass to Arizona and Utah, to create a stand-off with the US military on the border that is buidling the fence. As there will be more guns than people, inevitably several mass killings happen almost by accident. Trump issues a clamp-down and sends more troops to Arizona and Utah, plus orders Texas borders shut and Texas encircled. As many military officers refuse Trump’s orders, he court martials them and orders them beheaded for treason. This is shown live on TrumpTV to record-setting TV audiences. The purges of the military of any officers with any morals results in a Trump Troopers force that is ever more Nazi in its philosophy and that brownshirt army is ready to execute any orders Fuhrer Trump demands. They pledge allegiance to Trump and have no qualms with disobeying the Geneva Conventions because Fuhrer Trump says we just have to. Believe me. We have no choice.
TRUMP DOCTRINE
Then the Trump doctrine becomes evident. A new set of alliances are built and old ones are destroyed. Trump was already friends with Boris Johnson and liked Brexit. Trump had also said a lot of nice things about Vladimir Putin and vice versa. But Trump was hostile towards the outgoing British Government of David Cameron and of other Europeans like Angela Merkel in Germany. As later historians would discover, this was all due to petty feuds Trump had related to his finances. The loans he had with German and British banks, especially his 100 million dollar loan from Deutsche Bank had eventually resulted in those banks demanding payments that Trump could not make, and he blamed their governments. But Trump’s new-found friends were those willing to take over Trump loans and extend him new lines of credit - in particular Vladimir Putin with Russian banks and Kim Jong Un of North Korea, via his bankers in China. The first state visit to the USA under Trump is Kim Jong Un, and Trump’s first international trip shortly thereafter is to Moscow to meet with Putin. US relations with many classic allies deteriorates fast like France, Germany, South Korea and Japan, and in the middle east the Gulf states and Saudi Arabia. New strange friendships form with Putin’s Russia, Kim Jong Un’s North Korea and China. plus Trump starts to endorse and support the Syrian regime of Assad as one of Putin’s friends. The new Boris Johnson government is a friend while Mexico and the deserters in Texas are seen as the enemy. Canadians don’t know what to make of Trump and he seems to forget they exist.
THE GIBRALTAR INCIDENT
In Europe the tensions rise. Its a bitterly cold winter and Europe is starved for energy while Putin turns up the extortion and gets a kings ransom for his gas piped from Russia to keep Europe barely warm. The money goes directly to Putin's rapidly-expanding military. Then Putin moves to Eastern Estonia and Eastern Poland. NATO is paralyzed with suddenly the USA declaring it will not fight Putin and England joins the USA. But Americans are now angry at Trump, on why is he not defending the rights of America’s allies. As Europe is confused with NATO paralyzed, an incident on the border of Gibraltar escallates. The Spanish send police over to control the violence and then their military to control the situation and almost by accident, the Spanish take over the whole rock. Britain demands Spain withdraw from British soil, and Spain insists, Gibraltar was theirs to begin with, it was unfairly seized by Britain all those years ago. Suddenly Trump chimes in from the USA saying the property is British and Britain should fight for it, and Trump is willing to come support Britain. Boris Johnson sees this as his ‘Margaret Thatcher Falkland Islands’ moment and sends the British fleet to go invade and take back Gibraltar. The invasion is as much a total massacre disaster as Churchill’s crazy idea in World War 1 to invade Gallipoli in Turkey. But now England is in a shooting war with Spain - both members of NATO and Britain, part of EFTA shooting at soldiers from Spain, a part of the EU. And the USA is siding with England.
The border between Scotland and England is getting ever hotter, now with daily clashes, and with the Gibraltar incident, the new Scottish government declares its support of Spain. It closes the border with England. Ireland joins this. Now the Wales Independence movement is in full swing and the English resort in the same way as they did with Scotland and Ireland a few months prior - by brutal police and military repression. Welsh citizens protest declaring Bywydau Cymru Yn Bwysig and everybody just nods their heads in bewilderment. But the Welsh, like the Irish and Scots a few months earlier, start a bombing terrorism campaign - which re-ignites a recently calmed-down ISIS inspired bombing wave in London and major English cities. But the domestic terrorist attacks by the Welsh, are mistakenly thought to be by the Scots and now land-owners in Northern England get into an uprising and storm the Scottish border. And now the Scottish militia fires back, and now the distressed British army, already shamed from losing in the failed Gibraltar Incident, and under fire in Wales, fires back hard at the Scots, and now, England is in a second shooting war with another EU nation, Scotland. Iceland observes all this from across the sea, can’t pick a side because they hate both the Scots and the English, vote Bjork to become their new President who then sings a bizarre song about peace that everybody ignores.
Now Germany and France have had enough, and declare their alliance with Spain and Scotland (and Ireland). Most smaller EU nations in Central Europe join with this cause. Norway joins out of EFTA solidarity to the English side. Sweden and Finland look at each other and say, wait, aren’t we civilized people, can’t we just get along. The Danish say, fuck it, and they join the French and Germans to side with the Spanish and Scots against the English - and against the Norwegians. The Belgians look at what did the French do? Oh, they sided with Spain, so the Belgians side with Spain. The Dutch look at Belgium and then go to the other side and support the British. The Dutch-speaking minority in Belgium then decide, this is THEIR moment for a Bletchit and they vomit themselves out of the nation of Belgium - but remain inside the EU. Meanwhile far across frozen seas, Kalaalit Nunaat (you may now this huge island as Greenland) declares its independence from Denmark, and allies itself with Britain and declares war on Iceland. Luckily they have no navy to do any actual fighting.
Now Putin moves his little border skirmishes in Poland and Estonia into a full-fledged invasion. He allies with England. The British say - no, you can’t ally with us, we hate you. Thats when Trump says, no, England and Russia! We are all friends, I accept the alliance with Putin AND England, and then Trump starts his invasion of Texas. Mexico decides that enough with the silly wall, and sides with Texas and sends its army to fight in Texas. Spain, France and Germany ally with Mexico and Texas but don’t have any soldiers to spare to give more than lip-service to that military alliance. Meanwhile armed-to-the-teeth militia in Utah and Arizona join Texas. Mostly Hispanic inspired but also Trump-hating New Mexico joins on Texas’s side. California and Nevada declare NEUTRALITY and refuse to support Trump’s war against Texas. Casinos in Las Vegas take record bookings on the outcome of what is locally called the Second American Civil War. The military assets in California are seized by the local government. Canada hides its head and ignores everybody but keeps its borders open as its population is rapidly expanding with the exodus of sensible Americans running away from the Trump tyranny.
WORLD WAR 3
Thats when Kim Jong Un launches his attack across the border to South Korea. Putin declares its support of North Korea. Japan declares its support of South Korea. Trump accidentially declares US support of Central Korea until he is corrected by his advisors that there is no such country, and that their President meant to say North Korea. China claims to be neutral but in reality supports North Korea. Germany, France, Spain Italy and the EU joins in the support of South Korea and Japan. England and its EFTA partners support Trump who supports North Korea. Syria, Iraq and Iran join in supporting North Korea and receive new North Korean ballistic missiles in return. Saudi Arabia and the Gulf nations support South Korea and Japan and receive new Japanese ballistic missiles in return.
The Iranian-led alliance of Syria, Iraq and Turkey, supported now by Putin and endorsed by Trump, attacks Saudi Arabia. The rich gulf states side with Saudi Arabia. The European Union sides with Saudis but say they can’t send any actual military support. Putin however sends big military support to Iran. Japan sends a delegation of nurses. South Korea sends a batch of new Samsung Galaxy smartphones. What is left of ISIS, who had been fighting Iraq, Iran, Syria and Turkey, now declares its alliance with .. Europe and Saudi Arabia. The ISIS terrorists in Europe become confused and demoralized. Meanwhile Al Quada who hate ISIS, then join the opposite side with Iran, Iraq, Syria and Russia (allying now with England and the USA who is now renamed from the Great Satan to the Mild Satan). The Taliban in Afghanistan say, hey this is how wars were supposed to be, and return to their tribal hobby of centuries-long civil wars. The Kurds continue to be abandoned on every front with no allies (again). Hezbollah accidentially starts a war with itself. The Israeli Prime Minister has a nervous breakdown.
China once again invades Vietnam. Trump’s neo-cons remind Trump that Obama went to Vietnam, so Trump sides with China. Ironically the French lead the European support to Vietnam but apologize that they can't send actual military assistance. It doesn’t matter, the tenacious nation easily repels the Chinese invasion without any foreign military assistance. India sides with Europe and Vietnam against China and makes a play for some forgotten mountain on the Chinese border. Pakistan sides with China and USA and Russia against India. They don’t really care who it is, they are always siding against India. Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal join with Pakistan against India but their military support is symbolic at best. Bhutan meanwhile can't find itself on the map and invades the wrong mountain. Malaysians see an internal conflict with their domestic Indian and Chinese minority populations so they all go to Thailand to get some massages.
In Europe, Hungary and Greece side with England and Russia (and Norway and the USA). The European Union gets most of its members to side with it, including Spain, France, Germany and Italy, but still they can’t manage to get any military support into Poland before it is overrun by Russia. Switzerland and the Nordic pair, Sweden and Finland declare their independence and neutrality again in this conflict. Sweden and Switzerland again as usual, make big fortunes selling weapons to all sides, while Russia promptly takes advantage of Finland’s declaration of neutrality by invading Finland (again).
How’s that for a silly World War 3 scenario? Come on, Trump wanted Brexit, he admires Putin and said he’d invite Kim Jong Un for a state visit to the USA. The Scots want independence and the Irish had been fighting a century-long rebellion. What is Putin up to and how far from today is an anti-ISIS alliance of Iran, Iraq, Syria and gosh, why not, Turkey if it can’t get into the EU. Putin is trying to be the friend to all of them. Kim Jong Un is dead-set to start a war. And Spain really still today is sore about Gibraltar. Yeah, its a totally silly implausible scenario.. but SOME of the elements in it could happen..
ADDENDUM
One of our regular readers of the blog, cornelius, has contributed a fan fiction epilogue to the above. He showed where it went next and how it all ends. This is great, much funnier than my own writing. Thanks cornelius and all other readers, please enjoy:
You didn't mention the nuclear incident.
NUCLEAR INCIDENT
Every night, since he was a little boy, before falling asleep, Trump dreamed of pushing the red button. Now he was, oh, so close. He touched the button briefly. US was at war with so many nations and yet, apart from the Texas uprising, no country dared to attack the US. That was very frustrating. Trump wanted a war, a beautiful, tremendous war. What was the point in the gold plated "US" inscriptions on the US' tanks if no enemy would see them (and be impressed by them). He wanted action and he wanted it now. He didn't know where the rocket was headed but it didn't matter. He pushes the button but he can't push the button all the way down. His fingers are too short. He calls Christie but he can't either. His fingers are too fat. Rubio refuses out of spite. Then, Trump's frustration reaches the boiling point. He calls his VP, Maury Povich. Maury was not his first choice. Trump wanted his mentor, Jerry Springer, to be his VP but couldn't convince him to come out of retirement. Anyway, Maury tries to no avail to calm Trump down. A last ditch effort is made by calling Dr. Phil. And he doesn't disappoint. He orders a new red button that is shallow enough and it triggers a nuclear explosion underground in North Korea.
GENERAL McCAIN
Trump is in the oval office. He plays tic-tac-toe with himself. He's winning. The army is in a tough tactical situation and he must find a solution. In the past tic-tac-toe has always helped him make good strategic decisions. But this time he's out of ideas. The phone rings almost non-stop. He ignores the phone. He knows it's only bad news from the Texas front. Sarah Palin enters. She looks very concerned.
Sarah: Mr. Trump, the South front is collapsing. The morale of the troops is at catastrophic levels. We must do something. How about a huge rally near the front line? That should fire the army up.
Trump is terrified but he can't show his fear. He puts on his tough, frowning face. He's thinking: "If I go to the front there is a slight probability that I get captured. I can't let this happen. I've worked too hard to build my hero, my winner reputation. If I get captured I won't be a hero anymore. I must find a pretext to not go to the front. I must think fast, I'm already kind of stalling." Suddenly he smiles.
Trump: "I can't. Believe me, I just can't. I have a bone spur that is bothering me tremendously. It's the best bone spur, I'm telling you. Find someone else."
He was about to repeat the same pretext several times, just to buy more time when he's got a great idea.
Trump: Send McCain.
Trump's choice was not random. If McCain is taken prisoner, he'll be one more hero removed from the competition. In addition, with every loss, McCain was becoming less obedient. His capture would be a good opportunity to get rid of him.
THE BUNKER
Trump's final hours at Oran-Gutansschanze bunker
It turned out that the generals were all establishment. They betrayed Trump, all of them, including Collin Powell and John McCain. They had joined forces with the Texas rebels. Only the KKK militia remained loyal to him. Last time Trump checked he still controlled a small territory of some five square miles around his bunker. But that was hours ago. He is in fetal position, sucking his thumb, waiting... Finally the generals enter the bunker. They offer him a handgun loaded with a single bullet. For some reason they insist that his name is Donald Trump. His name is John Miller.
Miller: Listen guys, I'm not Trump. My name is John Miller, believe me. It's a beautiful name and I am very proud of my name. I have proof. I have tapes of myself phone calling TV channels. I have the best memory, I remember very well my name and it is not Donald Trump. I'll report back to you with more proof."
The generals lay the gun within Trump's reach and quickly leave the room. Trump is thinking: "I fooled them. My name is actually John Barron. How stupid are they?"
Trump picks up the gun. He shoots himself in the foot thinking: "There goes that bone spur. Besides, I am no longer fit for trial because I am injured." The generals barge in and arrest Trump as he yells in pain.
I am pretty sure that Texas does NOT have a legal right to secede from the Union.
Posted by: Dave Barnes | June 24, 2016 at 05:35 PM
Tomi,
You forgot Bavaria seceding from Germany. That right is still enzhrined in their constitution.
Posted by: Winter | June 24, 2016 at 06:50 PM
Truth is trumping your fiction Tomi:
Donald Trump's Brexit press conference was beyond bizarre
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/06/24/donald-trumps-brexit-press-conference-was-beyond-bizarre/
Posted by: Winter | June 24, 2016 at 06:53 PM
I miss the downside? Other than Texas is hotter than I'd like and they wouldn't be so friendly to illegals (from the US or Mexico), and it would likely create an independent section to the Canadian border along the rockies.
That the terrorism, rape, pillage, oligarchs in their bunkers, you in the path of radiation or bioweapons is all occuring in Europe, Africa, or Asia. South America might all go Venezuela. But North America sounds like it would be better off.
Posted by: tz | June 24, 2016 at 07:09 PM
Where should I post?
We were all wrong about Trump having filed four bankruptcies
Trump Bankruptcy Math Doesn't Add Up
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/trump-bankruptcy-math-doesn-t-add-n598376
There were 6.
Posted by: Winter | June 24, 2016 at 07:14 PM
More insights from The Donald
Brexit and Donald Trump Campaign Have More in Common Than Meets the Eye
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/brexit-donald-trump-campaign-common-meets-eye/story?id=40103741
If Trump becomes PotUS, your fiction might very well become fact.
Posted by: Winter | June 24, 2016 at 08:16 PM
Hi Tomi,
You didn't mention the nuclear incident.
Every night, since he was a little boy, before falling asleep, Trump dreamed of pushing the red button. Now he was, oh, so close. He touched the button briefly. US was at war with so many nations and yet, apart from the Texas uprising, no country dared to attack the US. That was very frustrating. Trump wanted a war, a beautiful, tremendous war. What was the point in the gold plated "US" inscriptions on the US' tanks if no enemy would see them (and be impressed by them). He wanted action and he wanted it now. He didn't know where the rocket was headed but it didn't matter. He pushes the button but he can't push the button all the way down. His fingers are too short. He calls Christie but he can't either. His fingers are too fat. Rubio refuses out of spite. Then, Trump's frustration reaches the boiling point. He calls his VP, Maury Povich. Maury was not his first choice. Trump wanted his mentor, Jerry Springer, to be his VP but couldn't convince him to come out of retirement. Anyway, Maury tries to no avail to calm Trump down. A last ditch effort is made by calling Dr. Phil. And he doesn't disappoint. He orders a new red button that is shallow enough and it triggers a nuclear explosion underground in North Korea.
Posted by: cornelius | June 24, 2016 at 09:43 PM
@Winter
Wow, I just read the link about Trump's Brexit press conference. Wow! I don't I've read anything so incoherent in a very long time. Was he on drugs?
@Tomi
As tz said, you must include Venezuela somewhere. And I think you should also mention Catalonia and Quebec.
Posted by: cornelius | June 24, 2016 at 10:06 PM
I meant to say: I don't think I've read anything so incoherent in a very long time.
And in my other post it's "attack" instead of "attach". Not quite the same I suppose.
Posted by: cornelius | June 24, 2016 at 10:07 PM
Hi everybody
You guys rock! Wow cornelius that was FAB. And even though you'd want to attach, I did manage to turn that into the more conventional.. attack :-)
Tomi Ahonen :-)
Posted by: Tomi T Ahonen | June 24, 2016 at 10:19 PM
Clinton regains double-digit lead over Trump: Reuters/Ipsos poll
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN0ZA3KG
Posted by: Winter | June 25, 2016 at 06:52 AM
Trump is in the oval office. He plays tic-tac-toe with himself. He's winning. The army is in a tough tactical situation and he must find a solution. In the past tic-tac-toe has always helped him make good strategic decisions. But this time he's out of ideas. The phone rings almost non-stop. He ignores the phone. He knows it's only bad news from the Texas front. Sarah Palin enters. She looks very concerned.
Sarah: Mr. Trump, the South front is collapsing. The morale of the troops is at catastrophic levels. We must do something. How about a huge rally near the front line? That should fire the army up.
Trump is terrified but he can't show his fear. He puts on his tough, frowning face. He's thinking: "If I go to the front there is a slight probability that I get captured. I can't let this happen. I've worked too hard to build my hero, my winner reputation. If I get captured I won't be a hero anymore. I must find a pretext to not go to the front. I must think fast, I'm already kind of stalling." Suddenly he smiles.
Trump: "I can't. Believe me, I just can't. I have a bone spur that is bothering me tremendously. It's the best bone spur, I'm telling you. Find someone else."
He was about to repeat the same pretext several times, just to buy more time when he's got a great idea.
Trump: Send McCain.
Trump's choice was not random. If McCain is taken prisoner, he'll be one more hero removed from the competition. In addition, with every loss, McCain was becoming less obedient.
His capture would be a good opportunity to get rid of him.
Posted by: cornelius | June 25, 2016 at 07:17 AM
One of the results of Scotland's referendum was that they do not talk about the referendum. Talking about it would lead to arguments followed by shouting and hopefully friends pulling the shouters apart and getting them to go home and calm down. In hindsight, the EU referendum should not have taken place with a roughly 50/50 split. We should have waited until the opinions were at least 70/30 either way.
The first reactions I have seen were relief from the exiters and 'what will this mean?' from the remainers. The next results were 30% devaluation of the pound, a 'temporary' ban on online trading of the pound and shouting matches on the internet.
As David Cameron wants to be out of office by October, he is clearly expecting worse and does not want to get blamed for it. Members of parliament were split 70/30 in favour of remaining, so whoever picks up the poison chalice will be facing horrific economic headlines with a house that will not support any of his policies. 48% will blame the next prime minister for everything, and the rest will blame everyone but themselves. Only a half-wit would want to be PM now, so that is what we are going to get. Mr Wit has a choice of sticking with the MPs in office, or begging those same MPs for a vote of no confidence in themselves so he can call an early general election to take place while exiters are hiding from the press to avoid answering questions on that day's financial headlines.
Mr Wit will appoint his biggest rival to negotiate with the EU about leaving. Any proposal will be met with screaming insults from at least 48% of the UK (and howls of laughter from the rest of the EU). Mr Negotiator will get replaced every month until the shouting dies down then we will get someone who ducks all responsibility and hides until the next general election in 2020.
Your worst case humor is not as insane as it could be. Instead of Scotland wanting to be first out of the UK, try London. London was 66% remain. Probably higher today. About a third of London's day time population are commuters. Imagine the chaos when there is a boarder control between the EU City State of London and the rest of UKIP.
Posted by: Isceald Glede | June 25, 2016 at 07:34 AM
@Isceald Glede
I had a vision. Boris Johnson has a brilliant plan.
He will negociate the perfet deal. The Uk will keep all the advantages of being inside the EU while keeping control of immigration. In return, the UK will implement all EU laws and regulations and will accept the same number of EU immigrants they have now. The UK will also pay for some EU funds.
But the EU will be independent and will not have a say over these EU laws and revulations. This deal will implement the single aim of the leave camp: Keep Britain English. No more foreigners.
This is the same deal as Norway and Switzerland have, they have to abide by laws they cannot influence.
Posted by: Winter | June 25, 2016 at 10:36 AM
And here is the think tank that shares my view (or I share their view?):
Britain must take Norway-style deal with EU after historic Brexit vote, says think-tank
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/683276/European-Union-EFTA-Norway-EU-referendum-Brexit
"Last year David Cameron said: "Some people arguing for Britain to leave the EU have pointed out a position like that of Norway as a good outcome.
"Norway pays as much per head to the EU as we do, but of course they have no seat at the table, no ability to negotiate."
And Ukip leader Mr Farage said: I don't want a Norwegian deal – I believe in a new British deal that suits the needs of our own country.""
Posted by: Winter | June 25, 2016 at 11:39 AM
Note how Farage has difficulties with the concept of negotiations. Which sounds a lot more likely than assuming this is part of a brilliant negotiation tactic:
"I believe in a new British deal that suits the needs of our own country.""
I believe there is very little the UK can bargain with. They cannot even threathen to stay if they do not like the deal.
Or maybe they can offer the deal for a new referendum, and when it is rejected, they stay in the EU.
;-)
Posted by: Winter | June 25, 2016 at 01:02 PM
@Winter
About your last phrase. The referendum itself doesn't cause the Brexit. It's the request to leave that causes that. So there is no need for a second referendum if the UK changes its mind
Posted by: cornelius | June 25, 2016 at 02:11 PM
@cornelius
"So there is no need for a second referendum if the UK changes its mind"
But the "UK" that changes their mind would be the sovereign voters who just voted to leave the EU.
Their government can legally ignore the outcome, but that is very unlikely to happen. If there is a change of mind, that should be confirmed in a second referendum. But that is alzo very unlikely to happen. The Leave voters would then have to admit they were wrong. I suspect most rather see the UK sink below the waves than ever admitting those pesty continentals were right all along.
Posted by: Winter | June 25, 2016 at 03:05 PM
What I find amazing about most of the press coverage about the Leave victory is that there is it is obvious no Prime Minister will invoke Article 50 and that the UK is no closer to leaving the EU today than it was a week ago.
Collectively everyone from the UK's two leading political parties, including Boris Johnson, is refusing to do anything to prepare for Brexit. Instead David Cameron, who supposedly "resigned," is going to squat on his office, possibly into October, preventing anyone from seriously negotiating with the EU let alone move towards invoking Article 50.
The plan is obviously to let the UK slowly bleed out economically over the next few months and then have the next Prime Minister give the people some "straight talk" calling for a second referendum, which Remain will win easily.
In the US there is the saying, "You can't fight city hall." The bureaucracy and the establishment don't want Brexit so it simply isn't going to happen.
Posted by: John Phamlore | June 25, 2016 at 04:26 PM
@John Phamlore
I've read somewhere (I didn't save the link) that the negotiations for trade agreements should take minimum 4 years. And the breakup from the EU should take about 2 years. So if UK applies for article 50 right away, then there would be some 2 years without trade agreements which would be rather bad for UK. So I guess the UK can start negotiating now and then in 2 years apply for article 50 and continue the negotiations until the exit kicks in. But the danger for the Leave would be that in 2 years the economic situation would be so bad that it would trigger a second referendum and cause the UK to remain. It would cause two unnecessary years of hardship, but maybe two years is better than forever. Also if within these two years Scotland breaks free, then that will not get reversed soon (unless the Scots will have a queen and that queen will marry an English king)
Posted by: cornelius | June 25, 2016 at 05:15 PM