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June 29, 2016



Trump looses by 22 points. GOP disintegrated into splinter groups and gets landslides in dog catcher and waste disposal.

Millard Filmore

Looks like a plan! Let's go with it.

And on election night, it will be like a particular episode of Burn Notice, where the star has a cheap clapboard house in the background, running away through a grass and weed strewn field, sprinting for his life with gunfire and an orange fireball explosion behind him, screaming to his partners: "THE PLAN'S NOT WORKING"

steve epstein

trump met with murdoch during the trip to Scotland.

Trump either wants a new TV network or a major deal with Murdoch's list of channels in the US and around the world.

I still think he is going to quit rather than chance losing to a woman in the fall by 10 points or more.

does he quit with a grievance or does he get pushed by spouting a dozen more racist comments in the next 3 weeks.

I am convinced he does not want to govern when the GOP can't stand him, and there are no coattail pols to be beholden to him.

Either the taxes or a family excuse is looming.
Cleveland may even reject him because he puts forward a bizarre VP pick.

Who knows... I just know his named property bond holders will not be happy to be holding damaged brand paper if he loses in a blow out.


Millard Filmore

@steve epstein: Mr Trump has never had much concern for property values when he has only invested his name. As long as he gets the license fees (up front if possible) for using his name, he is happy.

"The Trump Ocean Resort sold well, pulling in over $32 million in deposits for the people who expected to soon relax by the pool or stroll along the beach.

What they got was what Trump delivers all to often: Nothing. Nothing at all. In 2009, with the world real estate market in decline, Trump and his partners simply walked away from the project."


This is every day more unbelievable. When you think Trump can't say something more outrageous to lose even more votes, he finds the way, he always do.

Following the game I predict that he will choose Sarah Palin for VP, or Carly Fiorina, or any other clown who will rest him votes.

Wayne Borean


We need to do Convention reporting this week, using the time machine I borrowed from that wacky English doctor before he finds where I've hidden it. I did take one quick zip forward and the Convention ends in a scene much like in Rome in 44 BC. I took a quick trip back to that one as well, other than the clothes the scene was identical, a bunch of grey haired men stabbing a balding man. The major difference was the decor, and the funny looking cat sprawled at the foot of Trump in 2016.

Wayne Borean



You didn't just compare Trump with Caesar, did you?
The native Americans are slowly but surely getting their land back. It's called immigration.

In other news we have a poll that shows Clinton up in every single battleground state. That was expected. What is interesting is the fact that in addition to Trump, Ryan and Kasich were also polled against Clinton in Ohio and both of them polled better than Trump against Clinton. And of course they couldn't resist inserting some Quinnipiac polling data to cool off my excitement.


Things Are Even Worse for the GOP Than You Think

"For reasons that will leave historians and philosophers guessing into distant times, Donald Trump did indeed stand in front of a literal pile of garbage Tuesday to deliver an economic address.

Worse even than the worst backdrop in the history of political campaigns was the vision Trump laid out for America's future."

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Rob, Millard, steve

Rob - yeah, very very likely outcome. And while for just about a few days it looked like Trump might have been getting his campaign on track, he is now back diving into a dumpster fire. I won't argue one moment against a 22 point catastrophic disaster.

Millard - LOL yeah.

steve - I'm torn actually. A part of me says - the signs are CLEAR this is just a confidence trick, he'll quit. And the other part of me says, he's ADDICTED and you can't break addiction. He can't keep away from the crowds loving him and yelling his name. I'm hoping its the latter and that brings his pain all the greater if he endures it till November and THEN is wiped out haha.. (PS Turkey is demanding Trump's name removed from some skyscraper in Istanbul, this was before the terrorist attack but just more of that phenomenon where his brand is becoming toxic)

Millard - great point. He gets paid upfront, then doesn't care what happens to the property or its victims..

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi all

A few notes from the dumpster fire. Gosh, so much. There's another Trump education scam, Trump Institute. Plagiarized its documents. Then the Trump digital team is in hot water, first they sent that email that was stuck in spam filters, now it seems they bought email lists that covered international politicians from UK to Australia to Finland and expanding. They're already in trouble because US politicians are not allowed to seek election funding from foreign donations.

A cazillion polls are out, some battleground states show massive Hillary leads, some national polls close, others with ever increasing leads. I think we need to take stock, let the polling craze now run its course and see where RCP starts to stabilize in a week or two. At the moment all the trends show strong movement into Hillary's direction (but not all, as is also typical of polling).

Perhaps biggest news is POTUS. Obama comes officially on road with Hillary next week, in North Carolina. He will be fired up. And the Democrats coming to Hillary's events will LOVE to see 'that' Obama, which campaigns hard (not the one in the White House that tries to sound always so measured and cautious).

Did you notice Benghazi committee issued its final report without finding one fault on Hillary. So total failure then, haha.

The NRA is rushing in to support Trump, running its first 2 million dollar anti-Hillary ad run. Getting some ad wars now.

A major GOP donor said Trump's economic plan will cause a world economic crisis.

The Istanbul terror bombing was the catalyst to get Trump to return to waterboarding. That will play well to his base (idiot voters) but will push even more those moderates in the middle towards Hillary. Hillary's response in turn was to appeal to moderate REPUBLICANS to come to her side. At SOME point the narrative will shift that actually, in the war against ISIS, gosh the international coalition against ISIS is winning in both Iraq and Syria, pushing ISIS to ever smaller territory... But yeah. Waterboarding. Thats the answer.

The Mike Tyson rapid withdrawal. Haha, as I expected. It was a total disaster story. Meanwhile on the other side, Mike Ditka (the Chicago Bears former coach of NFL Football (=American Football, not soccer)) says he has not been invited to speak but he'd like to. So Trump is again utterly undisciplined, ruining great marketing and publicity opportunities, causing confusion and not controlling their story. So they did NOT first CONTACT the intended speakers and ask. Rather they just foamed at the mouth, listing a bunch of names - some will say no, some will say yeah, and some are totally NUTTY names to even suggest (like Mike Tyson). Trump is a moron. But he's a lovable moron, with a huge brain who doesn't need experts or advisors, because he speaks to himself.

That rapid hire of the digital marketing expert, I'm sure its because of the email fund-raising fiasco. BUT this is 'everything' the campaign is doing, and has been doing, in the past. It cannot even FIX what is wrong, before it hires the staff to know what is wrong.

Ok, am sure I'm again forgetting many things but gosh, this is such a massive clusterfuck going on in Trump's campaign, its umbelievable. So unbelievable you have to spell it with the M not the N. Umbelievable.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

So onto new insights. Nate Silver at 538 has his model up. He says its an 81% chance that Hillary wins (not that she wins 81% of the vote, its the probability of a Hillary win) and their model forecasts Hillary wins all states Obama got in 2012 plus she adds North Carolina and Arizona. They give the final vote count estimate with a 7 point victory for Hillary over Trump and 9 points to Johnson as Libertarian. That is obviously based on current polling and I find it consistent with the race as measured today. I believe this race will now tilt to ever more in Hillary's favor as this is historically bad for Trump and his party and support will desert him, while Hillary will drive a signficantly larger wave than currently is measured (because her campaign has only started and we haven't even had the Conventions). BUT, the point is - Nate, most accurate pollster of recent general elections, calls it today as a big 7 point win for Hillary even in a 3-way race and gives her all states Obama won in 2012 plus adds 2 more. If so, this will not be anywhere near a close election.

Now. They also give probabilities for various unusual election results. What is the chance of a landslide ie 10 point or more for Hillary. 538 blog says ... 35% chance of that happening. So today, one in three chance that this year is a blowout. Lets see how his opinions evolve with time but this is very close to how Sabato sees it.

Meanwhile Washington Post has an article looking at past election indicators and says, the election is already over and won by Hillary. By recent past, when an incumbent is as popular as Obama is now, the other side is dead. When the candidates running are where they are now, the race is over. That the three remaining major events (VP selections, Conventions, and Debates) will not alter this race. Its already over and Hillary has won.

It is VERY likely, that the electorate HAS decided the race enough, by now, that when the Exit Poll of November 2016 is conducted, and the voters are asked 'when did you decide' the election in the swing states had already been so much decided by now, that the election was statistically over. That Trump would have needed to win something like say 90% of the undecided voters in the swing states, to turn this race into his victory. We don't know. But we will know. And it does seem that this is quite likely. The negatives on both sides are so high but the VERY negative views of Trump are enormous. It does look like he is stuck around 35% and could get to 40% or just a bit over that (depends a lot on the third party) but he won't be able to get to Hillary level of support - even as about half of the nation hates Hillary too.

Compared to previous elections, both Hillary and Trump are THE best-known non-incumbents running for the election, so there is almost nobody in the election who really don't know who these are. And Trump has managed to get most people to really dislike him.

(my prediction looking strong for 20 point crushing defeat to Trump)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Millard Filmore

@Tomi: some links for the Trump Institute story:

a lefty link:

a MSM link:

Millard Filmore

In odd news, the Canadian MPs want Obama to do another 4 years.

Wayne Borean


It is beginning to look like the biggest problem Hillary's team will have is that there is so much negative stuff on Donald J. Trump that they'll never be able to use it all.


"It is beginning to look like the biggest problem Hillary's team will have is"

Getting her supporters to make the effort to actually vote.


Winter, I believe you are exactly right.

My state overwhelmingly stayed home during the last election here and the result is Governor Matt Bevin. This is the nutjob who "support[s]" the nutjob clerk who refused to issue same sex marriage licenses. Apparently, neither has heard of the Constitution and both believe it is right and proper for government agents to impose their personal religious beliefs upon citizens. This, of course, is the road to ISIS.

U.S. citizens need to have their noses rubbed into election results such as the Kentucky gubernatorial race. About 70% of voters decided that it wasn't worth the effort, yet Bevin almost immediately claimed "a mandate".,_2015

If enough people decide the election is a foregone conclusion, it most certainly will not be. I hope Secretary Clinton recognizes this danger. I'm far too old to be moving to Canada.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

First, one poll never is enough. And I was just about to post a comment saying - Rasmussen is an outlier, when I looked at its timing.

So first, Rasmussen is often tilted in a GOP favor. Secondly, they are not anywhere near the most accurate pollsters. BUT their poll was in the field 28 and 29 June, that is the best period to catch the initial fear and emotion of the Istanbul airport attack and Trump's very rapid 'fight fire with fire' response calling for waterboarding etc.

I do think there was probably an immediate emotional, viceral reaction and it can well have caused a sudden peak in Trump support. Now, I think ALSO that Trump's reactions to the terrorist attack were ridiculous and unpresidential, and in terms of any 'solutions' they are moronic. And most intelligent discussion about dealing with terrorism will reflect that in the coming days. This should bring any immediate Trump gains/peak down.

So one, lets remember Rasmussen is not the most credible pollsters and they have a GOP bias, but they may have captured a sudden peak in Trump support. This may signall a stalling in the growth in Hillary's support or even a reversal - to a modest degree. I think this poll may be a signal of a change in polling direction - BUT not to that degree. I totally reject that the race would go from 7 points to Hillary, suddenly to 4 points Trump (11 point swing) in a day. That is not normal by any means and this was not a terrorist attack in the USA and the US just had its own terrorist attack a few weeks ago, so its not even that 'shocking'.

BUT lets see how the next few polls go. They may show a much milder Hillary lead than the approx 10 points we've started to see. A 5 point race could be what we are going to have in the next week but then for Hillary to keep hitting Trump and bring it back to about 10 points around the Conventions.

I have been saying for a long time, the foreign policy side, the 'unknown unknowns' are the biggest joker cards, with the economy the other but likely now not big enough to change the election math. An international incident in 'conventional foreign policy' like North Korea, Russia, etc would help Hillary and hurt Trump. A terrorism related incident or possibly something around Iran would probably help Trump.

I don't like to take one poll as a sudden cause for alarm, and most likely if 10 polls say +7 and one poll suddenly says -4, that is an outlier. This case, however, with that timing, could actually signal a peak in the fear among voters, well played by Trump, and could mean that Hillary will see an erosion in her polling support by other pollsters in the coming days/week and that could be down to say 5% range. Thats why we love RCP and their average. It tells us far more clearly what is the reality. But its not a 4 point race for Trump. That is ridiculous. A tighter race maybe, a more temporary spike, likely, and a temporary phenomenon that will subside mostly, quite possibly.

Tomi Ahonen :-)


Here is the GOP outreach to Hispanic voters in action:

Voter citizenship checks in Kansas, Alabama, Georgia upheld by judge


I assume it is better than Palin or Fiorina. But will it attract new voters? (Rhetorical question)

Chris Christie being vetted for Donald Trump VP, source says

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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