How is that 10 Dollar iPhone (clone) Prediction Coming, for 2020? Lets do an update

In year 2010, 6 years ago, I made a famous forecast. I took the best smartphones of the day, the iPhone 4 and its various competitors like the Blackberry Bold, Samsung Galaxy, Nokia N8 etc, and applied Moore's Law for ten years. I said, if Moore's Law really will hold true, we should see a clone of that top-most phone of the day, say the iPhone 4, take all its specs, clone that on a cheap Android, give it 10 years of Moore's Law, and what cost 600 dollars (before any contract discount of handset subsidy) should cost 10 dollars - to manufacture, ship, market, sell - and still make a profit, by year 2020.

So to consider. Year 2010, if you took a brand new iPhone 4, which had a 5 mp camera, 3.5 inch touch screen, 3G and WiFi, the camera had an LED flash, and the iPhone 4 had also GPS. It was a VERY powerful pocket computer back in 2010. Any kid would have loved it, and with a bit of effort, you could run your business from that phone, it was clearly a fully-fledged computer. The App Store was now in full swing, you could also install almost any business productivity type of app from word processing to spreadsheets to accounting and billing. Or if you were more of an artist, it shot video, you could edit your photographs on the phone, and of course upload or download and view online etc. If you could give every human being on the planet, in year 2010, an iPhone 4, the 'digital divide' would essentially vanish. Everyone would have access to almost unlimited information, almost all education online etc. But the problem obviously was the price. In 2010 that pocket miracle machine cost 600 dollars. You can I could afford it. Someone in Tanzania who earns 2 dollars a day, could not afford it. And the rival flagship phones, Blackberry Bolds, Samsung Galaxies, Sony Xperias, Nokia N8s what have you HTCs and LGs and ZTEs and Lenovos, their flagships also cost in that roughly 600 dollar range, in year 2010.

So I applied Moore's Law. Moore's Law is a computer science law that says, that every 18 months the amount of microprocessors that can be squeezed onto the same space of a silicon chip will double. So in effect, computing power doubles every 18 months. The corollary to the law says, to get the SAME computing power, every 18 months, the COST of producing the same computing power will be cut in half. And if we start from 600 dollars in the summer of 2010, then cut it in half in 18 months, by Christmas of 2011, there should be an equivalent smartphone costing 300 dollars, and 18 months later, by the summer of 2013, one should exist for 150 dollars etc. You see how this goes. I am looking for specs of 5mp camera, 3.5 inch touch screen, smartphone, on 3G, WiFi, with GPS (and an LED flash for the camera). If you've seen me speak in the past 6 years, you've seen this slide and my latest update of where we are:




So its a CLONE. Not the actual Apple iPhone. Apple is not interested in selling us the same iPhone at half price every 18 months until it costs essentially nothing in a decade. They will try to think of ever more cool gadgets and specs and tech to squeeze into the phone, to keep up its price and ideally even raise its price (like they did with the 6 Series phablets). I have not predicted that APPLE would sell us a 'real' new iPhone in 2020 for ten dollars. BUT if we apply Moore's Law, then some clone-maker, could design an iPhone 2010 clone, in year 2020, put it on Android, and offer us the COMPUTING SPECS that are the same, as the iPhone 4 was in 2010, and if Moore's Law really holds, that smartphone should really cost about 10 dollars in year 2020, including manufacturing, shipping, marketing - and a modest profit to the maker.

So I made this famous prediction in 2010. The nice thing about it is, that it gives us a calendar, a schedule, of benchmarks. We can TEST the theory, to see if it is 'on track'. Every 18 months, I have then tested the theory to see, can I find some cheap smartphone somewhere that fits those specs and is on the price that my theory suggested 6 years ago. And so far, up to Christmas of 2014, I had managed to find some Android device - a new smartphone, not discounted old model - that fit those specs and was priced at or just under what the theory suggested. We were on track still in 2014. Now, its summer of 2016. It is time for the next 'check point'. Is that theory still on track. Can I find a new smartphone, released and sold this year, which has minimum specs of 5mp camera, 3.5 inch touch screen, 3G and WiFi, GPS, and flash for the camera. Obviously those are the minimum required specs, the smartphone can have BETTER specs on any of those, and the theory would still hold true. But the price is the key element. Can I find one that has an unsubsidised real price in some country selling for 38 dollars or less.

And would you know it. Yes I can. I found in India a new smartphone, released this March, by a brand I had never heard of, called Microkey. The Android smartphone is the Microkey E9. It has: 5mp camera and LED flash; 5 inch touch screen; 3G and WiFi, plus GPS. It matches or exceeds (5 inch touch screen vs 3.5 inch) the specs I needed. And its retail price is 2.443 India Rupees today, June, which is 36.25 US dollars. We are 1 dollar and 75 cents BELOW the target price. The theory still holds. We are on target to reach a 10 dollar 'iPhone 4 clone' to sell by year 2020. In fact, my original theory said 10 US dollars by summer of 2019, and yes THAT schedule is still today, year 2016, on target. I am expecting my theory to start to fail, because now so may of the remaining price elements of the path are not subject to Moore's Law - the price of plastic or glass does not fall by Moore's Law; the price of battery storage does not follow Moore's Law; the price of labor in manufacturing, the price of shipping, the price of packaging, the price of retail and marketing - does not follow Moore's Law. So I am seriously expecting not to hit that 10 dollar Android 'iPhone 4 clone' in the summer of 2019, and I expect very soon we will find that we are 'falling short' of my prediction - but so far, gosh, so good. Still now, six years into this forecast, of a 9 year journey, we are ON TRACK. If that final end is a 12 dollar smartphone rather than 10; or if the resulting date for 10 dollars is summer of 2020 rather than 2019, I will take that as a 'win' - because if humanity can have the power of an original iPhone 4, sold for 10 dollars without contract, it means everybody can have a scanner in their pocket (5mp camera is good enough to do page scans). Everybody can shoot videos. Everybody has the internet in their pocket. Everybody can have precision-mapping in their pockets. This is an amazing industry. And the golden years of mobile are only now ahead of us.

PS 1 - if you were not sure why the golden years of mobile are only now starting, read this.

And PS 2 - if you need all the stats of our amazing industry, you need to get the TomiAhonen Almanac 2016 edition - it only costs 10 Euros.

Comments

[Winter]

From your text I understand you say $10 in hard currency. No inflation or exchange corrections (e.g., Purchasing Power Parity). So, this prediction is even bolder than it looked in 2010.

There is a hitch in Moore's law. I was always puzzled how it could be possible that this law held almost exactly for so long. Until I read that this was based on the planning of the Fabs. The Intel's etc of the world made it true. And that has ended last year.
http://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2016/02/moores-law-really-is-dead-this-time/

However, this Moore's law ends for the high end. I think that this will have no influence on your prediction. The electronics components that do exist will fall in price just fine as the volumes are still increasing. I also think that the casing etc will keep dropping in price. A cheap gadget does not need an unbreakable case.

[Winter]

Just as a comparison, this is what you can get for $13 (888 rupees) in India now:

http://gadgets.ndtv.com/docoss-x1-3465

The Docoss X1 is powered by 1.2GHz dual-core and it comes with 1GB of RAM. The phone packs 4GB of internal storage that can be expanded up to 32GB via a microSD card. As far as the cameras are concerned, the Docoss X1 packs a 2-megapixel primary camera on the rear and a 0.3-megapixel front shooter for selfies.

The Docoss X1 runs Android 4.4.2 and is powered by a 1300mAh removable battery. It measures 122.20 x 64.40 x 9.30 (height x width x thickness) and weighs 102.00 grams.

The Docoss X1 is a dual SIM (GSM and GSM) smartphone that accepts two Regular SIMs. Connectivity options include Wi-Fi, GPS, Bluetooth, FM. Sensors on the phone include Proximity sensor, Ambient light sensor, Accelerometer.

[chithanh]

@Tomi
I do think there are some advances in display and battery technology which allow them to be produced cheaper. Indeed not at Moore's Law levels, but still.

http://www.androidauthority.com/amoled-displays-now-cheaper-than-lcd-682080/
http://spectrum.ieee.org/energywise/energy/renewables/a-first-prototype-of-a-sodiumion-rechargeable-battery

If we look at the dumbphones that $10 will buy today, they have 3G and a 2.8" qVGA screen. They are missing camera flash/GPS/touchscreen and of course everything is lower spec than the iPhone 4 still.

@Winter
Much like the Freedom 251 before it, I think the Docoss X1 is going to be unsold inventory of some year-old Chinese phone. So not really what Tomi is talking about.

[Winter]

@chithanh

The next lowest price is $21 (Rs. 1,389):

Champion My Phone 36
http://www.91mobiles.com/champion-my-phone-36-price-in-india

256 MB RAM
Display 3.5 inches (Small) 320x480 px
Camera 2 MP Camera (Rear)
Single LED Flash
Battery 1500 mAH, Li-Ion
Storage 256 MB Internal
Expandable Up To 8 GB

[Winter]

@

This one is better at $25.25 (Rs. 1,699):

Josh Nest
http://www.91mobiles.com/josh-nest-price-in-india

1.2 GHz Dual Core Processor
256 MB RAM
Display 4 inches (Small) 480x800 px
Camera 3.2 MP Primary, 1.3 MP Front, Single LED Flash
Battery 1500 mAH, Li-Ion
Storage 512 MB Internal
Expandable Up To 32 GB

[Winter]

Related article on long term developments:

The entire history of iPhone vs. Android summed up in two charts
http://www.theverge.com/2016/6/1/11836816/iphone-vs-android-history-charts

[chithanh]

@Winter
These too look like old phones too.

Do note that GMS approval window usually closes 9 months after release of the successor version of Android. This means all devices which are actually new (ie. not clearance sales of older Chinese phones) will at least run Lollipop.

[Winter]

@chithanh
"These too look like old phones too."

I was not sure about Tomi's criteria. On the one hand, a "new" phone is still "new" after a year on the shelf. On the other hand, I agree that the real spirit of the "contest" is that it should be a newly designed and marketed handset.

The cheapest Android 5 I can find still costs $40, so higher than what Tomi found.

There is this "Ringing Bells Freedom 251" which claims to cost less than $5 (Rs 291), but that really sounds much too good to be true.
http://www.mysmartprice.com/mobile/ringing-bells-freedom-251-msp9796

[Winter]

Looking in China now. Nothing below Tomi's $37.

$42.11
VKWorld F1 Android 5.1 Smartphone – 4.5 Inch Screen, MTK6580 Quad Core CPU, Dual SIM, Bluetooth 4.0, Smart Wake (White)
https://www.chinavasion.com/china/wholesale/Android_Phones/Normal_Screen_Android_Phones/VKworld-F1-Smartphone/

This one has a bunch around $50
http://www.pandawill.com/mobile-phone-c1.html?cat=380&dir=asc&order=price

[chithanh]

Cheapest I have found is Wi-Note H40 for $27 wholesale (add distribution and retail profit).
Quad-core, 4" WVGA, 0.3MP/2MP dual cameras with LED Flash, Android 5.1.
http://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/4inch-Mobile-Phone-Quad-Core-with_60433442964.html

But I suppose these are all manufacturer promises. Until you can actually buy it in a shop it won't count.

[Wayne Borean]

Dual sim smartphones on Alibaba.

http://www.alibaba.com/trade/search?f0=y&IndexArea=product_en&CatId=&SearchText=smartphone&refine_attr_value=217-361822

[Ganesh]

Hi,

Sorry to say, but the phone you have chosen has 2 MP camera. Please verify.

But, there are phones which are similar or even lower priced with 5MP camera and all other specs meeting (Torque Droidz Atom S for example).

Its fascinating to think of $10 smartphone and the revolution it will bring.

[grogxd]

In other news, there are rumors of samsung focusing again in tizen

http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/tech/2016/06/133_206894.html

[Abdul Muis]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tNrASJVWNaw
(US Govt. is the real founder of iPhone)

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hello?

Is anyone still here reading the blog for any smartphones-related occasional stories, or have you all deserted me because I just do Trump stories now? I have a goodie for you today.

I just launched a new Twitter-contest. Guess the market share of Nokia smartphones exactly 3 years from now, ie after June Quarter (Q2) of 2019. Join us, pick your percentage (up to one decimal point, ie 1.7% or 6.7% or 5.0% whatever you think) and submit it to me via Twitter (not leaving an entry on the blog). You have 3 days to think about it, but do join us. Read the rules on the new blog up just a moment ago.

Good luck!

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Troutwaxer]

I read for the smartphone stories. As a U.S. reader who follows politics your "feel" for of U.S. politics - I'll be diplomatic - is somewhat less impressive than your "feel" for smartphone technology. (though I'm impressed by your research - if I knew as much about say... French politics I'd be a highly educated fellow) IMHO you should write more about smartphones and less about U.S. politics.

[custom iphone case manufacturers]

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