All Entries in the 'Guess Nokia Smartphone Market Share 3 Years From Now' Twitter Contest

Now the dealine to enter my Twitter contest has passed and I have closed the contest. Here are the entrants in the forecasting contest, to try to guess the market share of Nokia brand smartphones in the summer of 2019, after the Q2 (April-June) quarter data has come in. Our entrants (each in %) in numerical order from smallest to largest are:

@cjpberry                     0.3

@JunkinSaha               0.5

@halibut_ter                 0.6

@__Lullz__                  0.7

@ARJWright                0.8

@SamailaGoje             0.9

@LasPent                    0.9

@praveenshetty          2.2

@ringgit002                 2.7

@roivod                       2.8

@fneuf                        2.9

@HarveyBeili              3.1

@mysterlawk              3.7

@digitreo                    3.9

@telmo_mota             4.1

@seaef                       4.1

@brianSJ3                  4.3

@spacetimebias         4.4

@qwazix                     4.4

@mosworld                 4.5

@afussen                    5.3

@martikonstant           5.3

@jubingoyal                5.5 (median)

@sbepstein                 5.7

@KarlHummer            5.8

@oluSunYAh              6.7

@MobileVi                   6.8

@jstranger                   6.9

@SirKneeland             7.1

@lovehunter1970        7.3

@gdg69                       8.1 (nearest to average)

@andreasm5858         8.9

@AnthonyEnglish        9.0

@wayneborean           9.5

@zlutor                       9.7

@erichugo                  9.7

@hellemans             11.2

@meneer                 12.8

@prkvs                     13.3

@proloscic               14.1

@franklinnwa           15.5

@abhibera               20.5

@SuhailS007          28.4

@Kamalakshan       34.2

@Diogo_Travassos 34.7


Quick statistcs. Total entries submitted was 45. Lowest estimate is 0.3%, highest is 34.7%. The mathematical average is 7.9% and the median (middle point guess, exaclty half guessed more, half guessed less) was 5.5%.

Good luck to all contestants and we'll see after 3 years who was closest.

ADDENDUM - after I got a good night's sleep (I kept the Twitter contest open for 30 hours to the end of business day in California time on Monday) I wanted to come back and give you my prediction just to be fair. It is timed at the same time as this set of entries. I actually wrote my Nokia Returns blog already, it is here. And from that you can see that at the end of 2018 I expected Nokia to get to 5% market share in smartphones and by end of 2019 to be between 7% and 8% (call that 7.5%). So for mid-2019, end of Q2 ie June 2019, my already-published forecast suggests 6.25% so call it 6.3% and thats what I'll put in as my non-competing entry, just for the record (and funnily enough nobody picked that number either).

Comments

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

@Tomi:

What is your own number? Or is that another 10 000 word essay haha :)

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi Per and Wayne

Per - No need for 'another' 10K word essay, Per, its already up. I gave my forecast for Nokia smartphone return but the milestones I published were end of 2018 and end of 2019. So the linear growth between those two points says 6.3% for Q2 of 2019. I'll stand by that published forecast (and funny, with 45 guesses, nobody did pick that number or even very close..). Also statistically funny that my number ends up between the average and the median of the crowd-sourced forecast haha.

As I wrote in that blog, I am assuming first Nokia Android smartphones start shipping at the end of this year 2016. By every quarter that is delayed, you can push back my forecast so if its 2 quarters delayed (first Nokia smartphones on Android only ship in say June of 2017) then that 5% number is the 'actual adjusted' forecast based on what I wrote but for the purpose of this contest, of course all entries had to be provided without any such info, so even then the 'accuracy' of my original forecast from this date will be based on this first forecast ie 6.3%.. But as you know, I will monitor the industry and issue updates to any forecasts if those are warranted and the main factor that I think will impact the Nokia 2019 market share (of all things we don't know and of things that are likely) is the exact launch date. I am hopeful first Nokia Android smartphones do appear in a few markets in small numbers already for Christmas.

Wayne - I hear you, but also obviously the contest has closed and its not fair to accept entries after you've seen what others have submitted so we'll let that number stay here but it won't be part officially of the contest :-)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Abdul Muis]

@Tomi

Sorry to post it here....
What do you think about this:
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/tech/2016/06/133_207534.html

"
"We have been seeking growth in terms of shipments for years. Samsung is preparing for the post-smartphone era and that's why our handset unit has identified profitability as a priority over growth," an executive at Samsung Electronics said.
.............
"Samsung will keep the company-set share according to markets. We will launch promotional campaigns if we have to. But the company will be unlikely to initiate cash-intensive promotions to clear inventory and increase market share," he said.
.............
Samsung plans to cut the number of budget models and is unlikely that the market leader will follow Chinese competitors seeking increased share with aggressive pricing strategies.
.............

The Samsung executive said the strategy shift won't cost the company's handset business too much given the firm's technology leadership, strong market position and diversified business portfolio.
"

[Abdul Muis]

@Tomi

Sorry to post it here....
What do you think about this:
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/tech/2016/06/133_207534.html

"
"We have been seeking growth in terms of shipments for years. Samsung is preparing for the post-smartphone era and that's why our handset unit has identified profitability as a priority over growth," an executive at Samsung Electronics said.
.............
"Samsung will keep the company-set share according to markets. We will launch promotional campaigns if we have to. But the company will be unlikely to initiate cash-intensive promotions to clear inventory and increase market share," he said.
.............
Samsung plans to cut the number of budget models and is unlikely that the market leader will follow Chinese competitors seeking increased share with aggressive pricing strategies.
.............

The Samsung executive said the strategy shift won't cost the company's handset business too much given the firm's technology leadership, strong market position and diversified business portfolio.
"

[chithanh]

@Wayne Brady
How nice of you to show concern for poor Xiaomi's plight. Protection against lawsuits was precisely why Xiaomi bought Microsoft patents. They will do just fine.

Also note that Xiaomi is big in the accessories business, so even if they sell smartphones at cost they can still make a small profit off matching powerbanks, selfie sticks, and so on.

@Tomi
I'm too late too, but my guess would have been 4.8%

Which is the 7.1 million remaining loyal smartphone customers that Nokia still held in Q1 2014 (last quarter before selling the handset business to Microsoft) plus 15.7 million who in Q1 2016 bought Nokia-branded dumbphones. Those will mostly convert to smartphones by 2019 and will see no reason NOT to go with a Nokia. At the same time the smartphone market will have grown 40% to 474 million units.

But now that you say Samsung is bracing for loss of marketshare: They are the ones who gained most from Nokia's downfall, and they are also the ones who have to lose most from Nokia rising again. So my estimate might be a bit on the low side, but for now I'll stick with it. :)

[chithanh]

Whoops, I meant Abdul Muis who wrote about Samsung. Sorry about that.

[chithanh]

@Wayne Brady
> with Blackberry enterprise level security. You know...a really big deal that aught to drive sales.

I don't know how any informed person could expect that.
Blackberry is in the enterprise market. You don't get mass-market sales from that segment. Also Blackberry chooses not to compete at low-end and mid-range.

All teens have moved on from BBM to WhatsApp mostly.

> Blackberry doesn't even make these phones.
> Blackberry never stopped making phones.

Just, wow.

> I remain quite skeptical.

Your concerns for Nokia are not based on reality. It is really not difficult to design and have a decent Android phone produced, small Chinese companies do this all the time.
Plus Nokia and Foxconn had several runs to identify problem areas and test the scalability of their operations.

[Wayne Borean]

@Wayne,

I think you are wrong on this. Apple is strong. Samsung fairly strong. The rest of the manufacturers are really weak.

Nokia, if they deliver good phones, at decent prices, could do really well.

My guess (and it was a guess) is that the company will do really well. Guess we'll find out in three years.

[chithanh]

@Wayne Brady
I can't help but wondering whether you actually read what is written on this blog.

The reasons for Blackberry's and Nokia's downfall have been extensively discussed by Tomi. Let's recall: Nokia collapse was caused by Osborne+Ratner effect, coupled with a mobile OS that nobody wanted. People wanted and demanded Nokias, but with Android instead of WP. When Elop refused to sell them, they got their Android fix from Samsung and others.

None of this applied to Blackberry. Teens don't switch back to Blackberry because the networking effects of BBM are gone, and Blackberry does not compete in low-end and mid-range price tiers.
And no, outside of enterprise there are no Blackberry exclusive features that would drive sales.

[Wayne the suckre]

@wayne

Donot be lullz/baron. Bb not nokia. Nokia not bb. Donot made stupid talk.

[Abdul Muis]

@Tomi,

I know you're busy with the US election news. I wonder what you think about this SONY strategy.

http://www.xperiablog.net/2016/06/30/sony-mobile-to-defocus-on-india-and-usa/

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi everybody in this old thread

We do have first prelim numbers out (see current blog posting) so you can take a first stab at evaluating where your entry might place you vs reality...

Tomi Ahonen :-)