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May 14, 2016



More non-news:

Six Numbers That Show Why Clinton Is Still the Favorite in 2016

I like the fact that Hillary is "underwater" in the white male vote. The same held for Obama. Yes, (older) white rural males in the USA will reliably show that they still cling to Archie Bunker as their role model.

But Archie Bunker clones are not the people who will ever be able to Make America Great Again.

That holds even more for Trump's supporters. That is a community of people who are LEAST likely to have contributed to the greatness of the US in past and present and are the last group you expect to make ANY country or enterprise great ever.

As always, the people who trust no one are the ones that end up putting all their trust in a con man.

Millard Filmore

Sorry for not going direct to Reuters, but they want all sorts of Java Script turned on to see anything. A comment from the Wonkette blog has this to say. Is the Trump Bump really fading already?

[comment from] FDRliberal

[comment from someone else] “Yes, I know he’s beyond gross, and I’m afraid he IS going to be our next bungling idiot president…”

It will be very hard for Trump to win the general election for a variety of reasons. In fact, the Little-Handed Mussolini’s temporary poll bump has already faded away, in both the general election and in the swing state polls.

Reuters (national) (5/21 – 5/25): Clinton 41% – Trump 36%
Ohio: Clinton 45% – Trump 39%
Florida: Clinton 46% – Trump 42%
Virginia: Clinton 45% – Trump 41%

[comment from] Biel_ze_Bubba
I’m resigned to 25% of the American public being ignorant lackwits, but 40% is hard to swallow.


Trump's a Walking Time Bomb: Don't Be Fooled by His 'Victory,' He Can Implode His Own Campaign at Any Moment

Millard Filmore

@Winter: I am hoping the implosion is starting in California. He says there is no drought. Its all a plot to give the water to a three inch fish.

"Please tell me again how brilliant this guy is. Malevolent and crafty? Sure, in some ways. But this is a moronic thing to say even to Republicans."


But we know that the GOP does not believe in reality. There are no facts, only opinions. Discussions on gender laws for toilets, climate change, evolution, US military is weak erc have no connection woth reality. They are purely based on the believe that reality is just an opinion.

Millard Filmore

@Winter: I am at a complete loss trying to understand the end-game of Republican elite that supports Trump, even the indifferent support. Trump will set the world on fire. Why does this not horrify them? Its as if the leadership thinks they can control him, and that the rest of the world will happily accept his new world order.

When Obama was first elected, someone I know freaked out and moved his family to the Philippines (I hear he lives in Florida now). Now that a Republican, well Trump, might be elected ... I'm thinking the same thing.


@Millard Filmore

I think part of the Republican elite supports Trump because they hate Clinton more, they fear a Supreme Court dominated by liberals or centrists, and because they think Trump is just acting wild but once he gets to be president he will be presidential.

Just curious, who moved to Philippines?

Millard Filmore

@cornelius: through a chain of events that started when my 4yo son went to preschool, I met an otherwise nice right winger ("God Bless Dan White"). His wife is from Philippines. Since he was self employed and rich by Phil standards, he picked up and moved when Obama was elected.

Once a year I check into facebook and see what he is up to.


This might go towards an explanation:

Donald Trump exposes the GOP's dirty secret: They build everything by nurturing white rage

Shortly before he died, Reagan’s strategist Lee Atwater explained the game plan of the Southern Strategy in a matter-of-fact clinical policy. “By 1968 you can’t say ‘n***r’ — that hurts you, backfires,” Atwater emphasized. “So you say stuff like, uh, forced busing, states’ rights, and all that stuff. And you’re getting so abstract now, you’re talking about cutting taxes, and all these things you’re talking about are totally economic things and a byproduct of them is, blacks get hurt worse than whites.” But Donald Trump doesn’t do abstract and that is what has sent the GOP into a tizzy.


Bernie Won't Get the Nomination. But His Online Army Isn't Done


More fun for the GOP

Is the Libertarian Party Ready for Prime Time?

Tomi T Ahonen

To all in the thread

Meet the Press just ran the post-clinching bump analysis based on three latest polls (including Fox) and found from 3 to 5 point bump in favor of Hillary. The race is not tied today, it is a significant Hillary lead with a temporary polling anomaly which ALWAYS happens when the primary races end. Lets not get carried away by bogus events which some take as facts or 'news'. ok?

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Then a comment on the Libertarian party

They picked former New Mexico Governor, Republican Gary Johnson as their nominee. The Libertarians are the only party that has a slot in every state. And some polling has Johnson at 10% in three-way-race Hillary, Trump and Johnson. Note that 15% is the threshold to get into TV debates. Johnson is a very 'moderate' Republican who has been very vocal against Trump.

A significant run by Johnson, getting even 5% but could get as much as 20% of the final vote, will never make Johnson the President. But most of his support will come out of Trump. Trump cannot afford to lose ANY voters because he is behind. Some of Johnson's support would also come from disgruntled Bernie supporters but far less than those desperate Republicans hating their nominee Trump. Johnson would probably split 75/25 in supporters from Trump vs Hillary, could be 90/10. If he gets to 10% in the general election, that already the ballgame BUT the point is, the more Johnson succeeds, the more Trump loses STATES in the final election. Hillary's landslide would become even more crushing. And a popular third party nominee will tend to raise voter turnout - this always helps the Democrats and hurts the Republicans. If Trump's loss is obvious and overwhelming around August-September, almost all of the supporters will be deserting Trump - and some will go to Johnson (while some will only suppport the down-ticket races, and some will sit out the election).

Its a bonus benefit to the next President, Hillary, further expanding her overwhelming election victory against Trump. Now, how real is Johnson? He may well fizzle out at 3% and be a non-story. But he could easily be in the 10% to 15% range, a major nuisance to Trump and a guarantee Trump can't even reach Hillary's levels in random polling past the Conventions.

Tomi Ahonen :-)



If Johnson runs then it is very likely that he'll get some support from many moderate Republicans but he will also get some moderate Democrats' votes from Clinton. The reason is that Clinton is so much in the middle of the political spectrum and she will be attacked relentlessly by Trump so her image will suffer a bit. So I can see some moderate Democrats voting for Johnson in addition to the disgruntled Sanders supporters. I think Johnson's supports will be more like 75/25 or maybe even 70/30.
He may get 15% in which case he will carry Utah and possibly Idaho which will be totally OK since both are Republican states anyway.


In addition to that, Johnson's VP is Bill Weld. He is also a moderate Republican. So two moderate Republicans running as the third horse. I can't see how they will not attract some of Bush's, Walker's and Kasich's supporters. Considering this third ticket, I think Florida, Wisconsin and Ohio are not interesting anymore, they are safe Democrat. Time for Clinton to move her army to other battlefields.

Millard Filmore

What a way to get your political party taken seriously as leader of a world power:


Satirewrie's take on the nomination of Trump:


Specifically, Trump has claimed he has “the world’s greatest memory,” would be “the greatest jobs president,” is the “the least racist person you will ever meet,” gets the “biggest standing ovations,” has “the highest IQ,” has “the best words,” has “the most beautiful hands” and “a very good brain,” and is, “more presidential than anybody other than the great Abe Lincoln.” He also claims to be, “the “Earnest Hemingway” of Twitter,” insists that “nobody reads the Bible more” than he does, and boasts that he is the “most humble” person he’s ever met.

“In terms of absurd narcissism,” said Stephens, “it’s like electing Kim Jong-un, on purpose.”


The question is not whether Trumps Campaign will implode, but when?

But imploding will not stop his campaign. There are enough Republicans who will vote a ham-sandwhich in office just because they hate Clinton that much. The question is: Are there enoug people who hate Hillary that much? The answer obviously is: No. But still, Trump will get amazing rallies full of people cheering him. They will stay with their man until the final end.

“I will give you everything” promises Trump in announcing his energy plan
We'll preserve our natural resources while extracting them as quickly as possible.

What were those aspirations? There were two related themes in the announcements: extraction is good, and regulations are bad because they tend to limit extraction. So Trump will get rid of a lot of the latter in order to boost the former. But, at the same time, he'll preserve our air, water, and natural resources.

At one point, Trump estimated that "75 percent of our rules and regulations are bad for us." So he'd get rid of most of them: "Any regulation that's outdated, unnecessary, bad for workers, or contrary to the national interest will be scrapped, and scrapped completely." Lest there be any confusion about whose rules were problematic, he went on to accuse the Environmental Protection Agency of using "totalitarian tactics" and accused the Obama administration of blocking extraction.

There's a small problem with that narrative: under the Obama administration, the US has become the world's single largest producer of oil and natural gas. To sustain this criticism, Trump had to find a statistic that sounded bad; he settled on blaming Obama for "the lowest oil rig count," even though that clearly has no relationship to production.

This sort of cognitive dissonance pervaded the speech. Trump promised to make US energy independent and free from international markets yet at the same time promised to approve the Keystone pipeline, which would bring in oil from another country. His promised approval got applause from the crowd in North Dakota even though the Canadian oil would be competing with their own local production.

Tomi T Ahonen

hi everybody

Just wrote my next installment in the Presidential race, so we can move the discussion there. Talked about Trump's lack of focus, his management style (or decision-making style to be precise), Hillary's worst day, the fund-raising issues with Trump and delegating the ground game to the GOP. And of course now the SPECTRE of... the evil Libertarians :-)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

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