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May 14, 2016


Millard Filmore

@Winter: "Are Americans stupid to support, vote for Donald Trump?"

The mother of one of my son's friends supports Trump. Her Facebook account constantly spews Trump propaganda. She has a young teen daughter and the transgender bathroom issue is one of her bug-a-boos. As a consequence of that, her belief that Obama is worse than Hitler is unshakable. The lady is smart, hard working, and energetic. The core of an honorable conservative. Definitely not stupid ... but her blind spots are staggering. For instance, she tried to be a small business lady a few years ago and never did understand why the minimum wage she paid did not attract competent, reliable staff that would work hard to make her rich.

as the movie The Point harps on, You See What You Want To See.

Its not stupidity, but I sure wish to hell I knew what it is.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

been off-line for two days and then the Nokia news took me a bit by surprise but will do some replies to stuff you wrote a few days ago

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

(From 17 May)

Hi Wayne, FIGJAM, Winter and Millard

Wayne - on Trump vs conservatives.. yeah, could be interesting play to run the pro-Planned Parenthood stuff ALSO but then the issue could be that some Democrats/liberals might think he's not that bad after all. As there is so much damaging stuff he's said, and there won't be enough time to fully exploit it all, I think the smart play is to just run everything that is 'generic' negative to a majority of voters. The ideal time and way to have run PP against Trump would have been by his rivals in the GOP primary stage.

On Libertarians, yeah. In some districts they may end up being the deciding factor where normally the gerrymandering would have kept that district safe. Separately, another Republican Congressman (this one from Florida) just said he is not going to run for re-election. This is suddenly another seat that becomes an open seat and an opportunity for DEMs to have a pick-up. The House will be a tough race but this kind of 'surrender' by incumbents will make each of those individual races a lot easier. BUT as in every election there will be surprises on both sides of incumbents who won't run again. But in a year expecting a drubbing it is likely to be far worse on the GOP side in this year.

On youth vote, yeah, and it won't be a landslide either way but almost certainly will tilt strongly to the DEM side maybe 60-40, and then its up to the DEMs to run up the participation. They won't be as energized definitely as they were with Obama's 2008 election. Hillary would love it if the youth vote was at roughly 2012 level but it probably will be below that.

FIGJAM - ok, clearly you don't love the French (or probably not most of Europe either). And on that superficial view, it looks heavily lopsided. Until you factor in - free schools, free childcare, PAID maternity leave (yes in almost all civilized countries mothers get PAID time off in the first months with their just-born babies. I don't know exact time but like in Finland its something like a year per child born, and can be taken by either parent). And free healtcare.. And on and on and on. Oh, and then there is the 5 weeks of paid vacation. Factor all that in and you have a pretty fair exchange and the actual disposable income for a typical citizen over their lifetimes is close to equal, but the French get it FAR better than the Americans.

Winter - yeah, thanks you already argued most of my points and several more to respond to FIGJAM. We obviously agree. But here is my little addition now - I think its a good thing there is considerable variety among nations but then there should be far more flexibility to allow workers to move from one country to another, to find that personal nirvana where they may want to live under which conditions. And again here, Americans are at a HUGE disadvantage where most do not speak two languages, where most Europeans speak THREE and many are fluent in four or five.

Millard - haha yeah, can't wait to see the actual tax returns. I saw some Tweet - didn't yet follow up on it - that he didn't pay ANY taxes one of the recent years? But even if its only 500,000 dollars, thats hardly a 'Billionaire' haha especially one somehow worth 10 Bees.

More replies coming (ps greetings from Doha airport lounge..)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi FIGJAM, Wayne, Winter

FIGJAM - boy are you brainwashed or simply stupid. If you cannot AFFORD the healthcare treatment, waiting ANY amount of time before you actually DIE is better than not getting the treatment. Period. Waiting ANY amount of time rather than not having the treatment is better than dying. But if you're rich enough to afford private care - EVERY one of the Western countries that has socialized medicine ALSO has PRIVATE hospitals. So if you're rich enough to afford the care in the USA, the socialized medicine system as used in ALL other advanced countries from Canada to UK to France to Italy to Spain to Sweden to Australia to Japan to Singapore to wherever - and in MANY of the less-developed countries too - will not just take care of EVERYBODY, it also lets you buy the private care if you want - which in most cases is STILL CHEAPER than what you Americans pay for.

College tuitions 'low' ?? Excuse me, in Finland college is TOTALLY FREE. And while we don't pay Wall Street level salaries, Finns have their share of millionaires too and plenty who can afford BMWs, Mercedes Benzes, most households own a summer cottage at a lake or an island by the sea where they have a boat, etc. Now how man American households have a summer cottage? Not exactly a high percentage haha (but they don't have the paid holiday either of 5 weeks in the summer and another week of skiing holidays, to spend at the cottage and enjoy it haha)

As to labor unrest, don't try to claim the USA doesn't have strikes.

Wayne & Winter - thanks for the replies to FIGJAM. He/she is quite ignorant and must be brainwashed by Fox News and its friends.

Wayne - its a weird one (transgender bathroom issue). Its one I can see the conservative side whipped into a frenzy about some again utterly non-existent 'danger'. I can see it as something which will activate their voters but have no idea exactly how it might play. Obviously a significant part of the electorate is moderate and considerate enough to allow for fair treatment of transgender people but what is the exact breakdown and how much fear could be raised, am not sure. It may play more to GOP side than DEM side in this cycle.

Winter - haha yeah, great point. Those voters are never in play for the Democrats BUT they might stay home, so especially in the Senate and House races (and local elections) the activation of Republican voters by the transgender issue can be important to win some of those races, if those voters are otherwise demoralized about Trump's pending election loss.

(more replies coming)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Millard Filmore

@Tomi: Trump and taxes. There is news today that Mr Trump gave his income tax info to New Jersey gambling regulators in 1978 and 1979. He paid no federal income taxes for those years. For a man of his wealth that is not so unusual. Comments on other blogs say that if his accountants were not driving that tax liability to zero, those accountants should be fired. The more interesting number is his income, for the "I'm worth elveventy billion dollars" claim, not his taxes.

Tomi T Ahonen

hi everybody

Update from 'real world' outside of tech haha... Here is where the rubber meets the road, and boy is this looking bad for the Trumpsters. Politico just did an analysis of the campaign investments and sizes comparison including fund-raising, offices, paid staff, advertising etc. It is BRUTAL and Hillary has quietly built a genuine juggernaut which also has tons in the bank both of her own account and her SuperPAC. Trump meanwhile has gone along - as we knew - on a shoestring but see the article to understand how totally outgunned he is already today. There are only 5 and a half months left and she has a 10x larger staff working everything from ground game & field offices to big data. Meanwhile Trump out of his far smaller budget pays out of course for all those hats he sells and is only ramping up with his staff who won't be even up to full speed initially; and the campaign starts with a historic-sized hole, with the big loan to Trump himself. And of Bernie haha, he is of course done but he spends almost everything he takes in - on advertising in the immediate races he is in while Hillary has mostly avoided that spending and instead spent most of her funding on the actual campaign for the Autumn.

There is only 5 and a half months left. Every day she has a larger total campaign working to get her elected in November, Hillary builds upon her lead. Don't be taken in by the temporary 'tightening' of the race - that is only a function of the Republican race ending before the Democratic one did. When the race ends, the winner always receives a short-term bump in polling (vs the other side). Hillary will get a similar bump after June 6 and then we're back to about a 7 point advantage for her.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen


Meant to post the Politico article link. Here it is


Tomi Ahonen :-)


And here are the Washington Post saying essentially the same.

Is Clinton ready for the Wild West campaign of Donald Trump?


And here a nice quote on the transgender issue:

"Trans women are killed for using the men's restroom, and they're jailed for using the women's restroom," she said. "In the end, what choice do we have?"

I think this is the lynchpin of these "bathroom" !aws. They are not installed to protect girls, but to propagate violence and murder against transgenders.


I think you underestimate the Miltonian determination of many Republicans to destroy the USA if they cannot rule it. Unless the Democrats regain the Senate, I see a good chance that they will refuse to hold hearings on any Supreme Court justice that Hillary Clinton may nominate. They've already set the precedent for inaction, they just need to find a new excuse other than "there's an election going on". After all, the campaign for the next election begins the day after the previous election is decided.

They can wait for another justice to die or retire, and then the 4-4 deadlock will be broken with a 7-justice court. People can argue (I wouldn't, myself) that this is not really different from a 9-justice court -- Article III of the Constitution doesn't specify the number of members, it simply says that the Supreme Court shall exist and have the final word. I wouldn't be totally surprised if they can continue this attrition game until we have a 5-justice court, as long as their Senate majority holds together.

They can then start working on the appeals courts. We don't need 3-judge appeals decisions being reversed by "en banc" rulings of 11, or even 29 judges, which is how many there are in the Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit. Political pundits are already talking about term limits for justices, with 18 years being thrown up for starters. But reducing federal judicial terms to less than the constitutionally specified "during good behavior" would probably require an amendment.

Millard Filmore

@Jeff: the Republicans have already been working on thinning the ranks of lesser judges. Many nominations have been held up and the backlog of cases is already a problem.

Personally, if the senate flips I would be ecstatic if ...
1) The lame duck Republican congress concluded that they better get busy on the Garland nomination before Hillary gets her own nomination before a Democrat congress ...

2) Mr Garland then withdraws his name from consideration saying he will not be a pawn of divisive partisan politics.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Millard

Good scenario :-) and me too, that would be awesome. Here then a really twist-the-knife twist to it.

So like you said, first GOP delays Garland nomination just because.. Obama. So Hillary wins in big landslide - and flips Senate in that instance, so the GOP Senators know they have their last moments in power. They rush to approve Garland.

Now Garland withdraws, says he won't be part of a partisan game. He is cheered by the Democrats (and Obama expresses his admiration too).

Hillary nominates a really leftist liberal firebrand female and minority judge, imagine the Notorious Ruth Ginsberg but in young and black (or Hispanic) variant. That is the 'Obama' seat filled.

But right as she steps in, an elderly Justice on the bench announces his or her retirement (this time a liberal, who won't therefore change the new balance any further) - now Hillary says, look the Republicans blocked President Obama's nominee, Garland, a perfectly justified and fair-minded (and centrist) justice. And Garland heroically stepped down to let me (Hillary) nominate my choice. I will now nominate Garland (and Obama is interviewed who strongly endorses this. And many of the now-voted-out Republican ex-Senators say yes, he was perfectly qualified, we were idiots not to approve him the first time). He sails through almost immediately with almost unanimous approval. And note - Hillary who is NOT a firebrand liberal, now gets a 'moderate' for 'her' onto the bench. And Obama's original choice gets to the bench anyway. And then lets do one more twist of the Hollywood ending knife, just as we had such good news from the tech gods about Nokia haha..

So the NEXT justice comes up in say 3 years, before the next Presidential election, while Hillary still has a clear majority in the Senate (the 2018 midterms will not flip the Senate back, its most likely the Democrats can slightly expand their lead running the same Anti-Trump arguments against sitting Republicans, that this is one of the worst Senators because he so clearly aligned with Trump back in 2016). So its 3 years since Hillary took office. Obama has been out of a job for 3 years, finished his third autobiography and is kinda looking for something cool to do.. yeah.. Hillary will put him on the bench and as long as the Senate is in Democratic control, Obama gets in. THAT is the ultimate revenge for Republicans blocking the sitting President. With a liberal-leaning Supreme Court and Obama sitting there himself - Hillary will have a VERY strong 'defensive line' against any near-future Republican shenanigans. A liberal-leaning Supreme court, where Notorious RBG is still sitting and still mentally sharp, but having a liberal balance for the first time in her career, and having some young guns including a very ambitious Obama there with her, it could even force Chief Justice Roberts to step down simply because 'his' Supremes will be ruling 'his' silly outdated views on a daily basis, making his life a hell and having the Republicans blast him daily on Fox and friends.

PS if Roberts steps down in the next ten years and the DEMs still hold the Senate (and still have the White House) - its very likely that Obama would be named the Chief Justice to replace Roberts. Wouldn't that be cool. I mean - he is just about the smartest, sharpest, fairest and most honorable man to sit in the White House and BY FAR the best we could imagine to be a Chief Justice (of any PRESIDENTS) who would do a brilliant job to really ensure a given Supreme Court ruling is to the best (and Constitutional) interest of the USA. He also would not be afraid to rule AGAINST liberal causes if they were reaching too far, but yeah. After the Republicans decided that the black guy can't have two terms, and obstructed him at ever stage, the ultimate revenge would be a liberal-leaning Supreme Court where Obama was the next Chief Justice for at least say 2 decades before he retires. Oh, and Chief Justice Obama MIGHT actually resign early in his term, to help elect the first black woman President when Michelle runs - provided the Democrats still held the Senate and White House, so his successor could be another liberal-leaning Justice.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Stephen Reed

Hi Tomi,

I've been silent after Trump failed to sweep the primaries as I predicted. Yet I continue to believe that Trump will win in November in a landslide. The best argument is a simple presidential model that favors a change in party after 8 years in presidential office, and also favors candidates who dominate their party's early primaries.

This simple model predicts Trump +9 in November.

I suppose that an extraordinary set of improbable events must occur for this to happen. Perhaps one has already - Trump leads in certain recent polls. FOX +3, Rasmussen +5, ABC +2.

Other improbable events include ...

* A stock market crash in the USA before the election
* Hillary gets charged with national security felonies, or FBI officials quit in protest if she is not charged
* Bernie Sanders weakens Hillary by contesting primaries through California, and is denied the nomination at the convention while his supporters riot in the streets - very liberal Sanders supporters defect to Trump or stay home.
* A terrorist attack occurs in the US or elsewhere that the US pays attention to
* Trump turns out a monster vote of seldom-or-intermittent voters who are missed by Hillary's ground game
* Trump's attacks on Hillary are effective and Hillary's attacks on Trump are not


@Stephen Reed
"The best argument is a simple presidential model that favors a change in party after 8 years in presidential office, and also favors candidates who dominate their party's early primaries."

I think that any prediction that does not account for the fact that to win, a candidate must get actual voters to get out and vote for her/him in November is based on magical thinking.

So, if a model predicts that Trump has an overwhelming chance of winning in November, we should be able to see this in the behavior of the voters NOW. Voters should not necessarily have a definite preference for that candidate now, but we should see NOW why they would vote for Trump in November.

And there is nothing NOW that makes it even vaguely likely that voters will massively change preferences in the coming months to vote for Trump.

If you could predict with a high level of reliability that any of the improbable events you mention would occur and would indeed benefit Trump, please share that with us.

Trump does try to reinvent himself, but the question is how to convince any voter of his sincerity now, versus what he said a few months ago (versus what he said years ago):

Donald Trump will never be able to reinvent himself as a moderate

You cannot convince extreme right voters that you are a true conservative/bigot/fascist and at the same time convince moderate voters that you are a reliable, moderate, and reasonable man.

Wayne Borean

Once seat on the Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals has been vacant for over SIX years. The Senate has been shirking its job.

Needless to say if Hillary wins, and flips the Senate, the judiciary will undergo massive change. This is why the Republicans sound so terrified.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

RCP average of polls has now for the first time ever moved race to the slightest 0.2% lead for Trump. It reflects recent polling by Fox, Rasmussen and ABC which give the race in the past week to Trump while other polls have Hillary still with a lead, but a shrinking one in all of the rest. As we do go with RCP where its average is the best current measure, diminishing the effect of any single outlier-poll, it is fair to say the race is now tied.

That said, there is a clear reason why for 11 months Hillary has been miles above Trump and suddenly race become tied in past week. Nothing happened in the USA to cause the immediate change (like a terrorist attack or economic collapse or natural disaster). There was no astonishing blunder like Mitt Romney's 47% commment last time or John McCain's sudden announcement to suspend his race in 2008. Both sides have continued the SAME strategies and same policies and same type of speeches. The ONLY thing that ended was the 'stop Trump' movement inside the Republican party - while the 'stop Hillary' movement still tries to continue its campaign against her. So Trump sees a modest rise in his position.

This is a polling ANOMALY that was predictable, and only impacted one side, but will also impact the opposing side shortly, and it will be corrected and cancelled out when Bernie ends his run. That may happen after June 6 when he will be mathematically eliminated. Do not misunderstand the polling now. The race is not tied. The first accurate polls we can consider (again) will be ones conducted AFTER Bernie has quit, then we can measure the race again, accurately. That means polls out in the middle of June. We gotta fly blind for 3 weeks now haha... sorry. And please do trust me, we see this pattern EVERY cycle, this is a false echo. When both candidates are cleared of the primary race, the polling will return to almost exactly where they were just prior to the first one clinching.

Also the same will be true of the Conventions. They too produce a one-sided bounce - for both parties - once - which are cancelled out. The RELEVANT analysis is what was the world BEFORE this pair of events happened and after. Like in 2012 when the bounce out of the Convention did not help Romney anywhere near as much as it did for Obama, but in 2008 (due to early excitement about Sarah Palin before we discovered she's a basket case) the bounces produced a significantly tighter race after the conventions than it was prior to the pair of conventions.

But observe how so many in the pundit class will now exclaim that the race is tied and/or Trump can win it. He can't. Its like the climate change denier who sees one record-setting winter storm and proclaims that global warming therefore is not happening.

PS the good thing about this is.. for Democracy.. that the short-lived fear of a Trump Presidency will help further activate the forces against him. So this is a good 'scare' to give Democrats and left-leaning moderates, to go fully support the Democratic ticket and not to take this election for granted.

Tomi Ahonen :-)


"that the short-lived fear of a Trump Presidency will help further activate the forces against him."

The worst thing for Clinton to happen would be if her voters took her election for granted.

I wonder how these "rays of hope" will affect the GOP voters/Hillary haters? Will it invigorate and unite them? Or will it convince them that they should go on with Trump 1.0 as it has "shown" to work?


@Tomi and Wayne, Trump is now ahead in the RCP. While you may think it is good that Hillary has a bloated campaign, I think it is a sign of the private sector vs govt sector that Trump got to where he is with 1/10 the staff as Crooked Hillary. She can't close the deal against a 74-year old socialist. Since Trump came out with a list of sensible SCOTUS choices, I'm warming to him. It would be good for democracy if Trump proves that Hillary can't buy this election. If she weren't married to Bill she'd be an ambulance chaser in Chicago. If she had divorced Bill im 2013 she'd be indicted by now.


@Tomi, if the Dems are the "smart" party why are they against genetically modified crops? The science is with the GOP. Also, why do they insist that biological gender is meaningless? The science is with the GOP. Why are they against fracking, which has done more to reduce carbon emissions than anything else since the Kyoto Treaty was ratified? The science is with the GOP here.

It seems to me that the Democrats are the party of imbeciles. No wonder they settle their disputes by throwing chairs at each other and lobbing death threats at senior senators.

Millard Filmore

@Catriona: "sensible SCOTUS choices"

I have to choke on that. One of the candidates thinks the public does not have a right to take videos of police as they commit felonies on public streets.

Another thinks prosecutors should be immune if they fabricate evidence.

Thomas Hardiman (no right to video tape):

Diane Sykes (prosecutors immune when they cheat):

oops, that is a left wing blog. maybe you won't go there. so here is a different link from a legal scholar (and maybe also a lawyer):

The comments to this entry are closed.

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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