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May 14, 2016

Comments

virgil

Whoa, Tomi, you're really getting this wrong. Trump may have actually been the one who leaked the tapes! https://youtu.be/3-5daajOopI?t=270

Either way, it doesn't matter. None of his voter base cares about that stuff.

cornelius

@chithanh
I've already explained "my reality". Very few of real Sanders voters will vote Trump, maybe 5%. And when I say real Sanders voters I mean voters that voted Sanders in primaries and genuinely intended to vote for Sanders in the general election if he got the nomination. It is more likely that Sanders' voters will not vote at all. Maybe around 20%. Both the 5% and the 20% figures depend on how will Sanders endorse and support Clinton. If he decides to throw a temper tantrum these figures could go higher. If he decides to cooperate, they could be lower. But under no circumstances 40% of Sanders' voters will vote Trump in the general election as an average for all states.

About Trump, I think he is becoming more senile. I think his IQ is shrinking rapidly. And that is not surprising, the guy is old.

chithanh

@cornelius
I was talking specifically about those who newly registered for the Democratic primaries, and whether we can derive any advantage for Hillary from that.
Assuming Hillary wins the nomination, they could be of any of the following groups:
1. Hillary supporters, who are going to vote Hillary
2. Sanders supporters, who are going to vote Hillary
3. Sanders supporters, who are going to vote Trump
4. Trump supporters, who are going to vote Trump
5. Sanders supporters, who are going not to vote for either

Group 3. and 4. seem to be non-negligible as indicated by the W.Va poll, and as such *it is not at all clear* that increased Democratic voter registration is helping Hillary. Even if the effect that led to W.Va results is less pronounced in other states. More polling (or big data) may be needed to determine this.

> the guy is old
Hillary is 68 years old (will be 69 in October)
Trump is 69 years old (will be 70 in June)
Sanders is 74 years old (will be 75 in September)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi all

On Bernie supporters. Don't take exit polls from West Virginia as indicative of anything. Hillary took the nationally sensible - but calculated - position against coal while Bernie (and Trump) took positions to get coal voters. WV will not matter in the general election it voted red in the past 2 elections, it is far red now, it won't be a battleground state. And no other state cares about coal like WV does. It was a safe place for Hillary to go against the local issue and her position is far stronger for the general election AND for the base of Democratic voters.

Bernie supporters are hot-headed mostly youth voters who will not be voting for Trump. MOST of them are perfectly fine TODAY to go vote for Hillary as their second choice and even those who don't like her, despise Trump TODAY - before the general election campaigning has gotten fully under way. To compare Bernie to Trump is like comparing a Porsche 911 to a Hummer. Both are expensive luxury cars but they are in TOTALLY different segments with TOTALLY different appeal and rivals. A Hummer buyer could consider a Ranger Rover or a Cadillac Escallade; a Porsche buyer could consider a Ferrari or Lamborghini. But almost anyone who prefers one (Hummer or Porsche) would not consider the other as the NEAREST rival. Its about the FURTHEST rival you can imagine. So if Bernie is a Porsche and Hillary is say a BMW, she is WAY more close to most Bernie fans than a Hummer would ever be.

The polling on voter PREFERENCE says this clearly, and CONSISTENTLY. More of Republicans will peel off and vote for Hillary than Democratic voters who would peel off and vote for Trump (this always happens at small percentages in every election). And of BERNIE supporters specifically, today, the vast majority will vote for Hillary, only a tiny slice will go for Trump.

That is BEFORE we get Bernie endorsing Hillary - which he of course will, they were friends before this all started and Bernie has a career and legacy to think about. Of course he will. He is not an idiot. And Bernie will stump for Hillary and encourage all of his voters to vote AGAINST Trump (he has already said that many times) and to vote for Hillary. Bernie will have a prominent speaking slot at the Democratic Convention. It will all be cum-bay-yah as it ALWAYS is on the Democratic side. And this has been the LEAST angry and hostile campaign on the Democratic side we have ever seen (of a race that was contested).

Don't delude yourself into thinking Bernie supporters will somehow bolt to vote for Trump. There are ignorant and racist voters in every party, a few of those may be tempted to pick Trump ahead of Hillary. Even most of those will find their way back to their party's nominee. No, the exit polls of the general election in November will be very clear - more Republicans will have voted for Hillary, than Democrats will have voted for Trump. That ALONE decides the election.

Now some of Bernie's voters may stay at home (this is also a danger with Ted Cruz voters). The silver lining on that on Hillary's side is, if you want ANY of your core segments to have an off-year, let it be the youth vote which is least reliable to begin with (Bernie supporters). The worst is if your most loyal supporters stay at home - for Republicans that is the religious right (Cruz supporters). I think Ted Cruz will still come to fully endorse Trump and in that case that edge will also only see modest erosion at best, but if Cruz decides to continue his guerilla war and keep a fight going until July, we may see a strong depressed vote of evangelical Christians (that is also measured in the exit polling in the general election, we will see) and that would further damage the already-losing Trump campaign.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

cornelius

@chithanh
I can't speculate on that, I don't have sufficient data. But common sense says that if there are more democratic registrations, then the democratic nominee should get more votes.

@Tomi
You didn't consider the moderate Republicans. The Bush-Kasich voters. Those will sit out in even bigger numbers (percentage wise) than Cruz voters. And they will vote Hillary in much greater numbers compared to Cruz voters.

cornelius

@chithanh
Tomi was talking about the swing states, more specifically Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Nevada. Why do you mention a poll in West Virginia?

cornelius

@Tomi

Here is a link that confirms your point about Cruz voters and Trump

http://www.christiantoday.com/article/u.s.elections.2016.if.it.ends.up.trump.vs.clinton.over.25.of.born.again.christians.are.ready.to.skip.voting/86112.htm

cornelius

And an interesting article speculating on Clinton's future VP and the strategy of the Democratic Party in the general election.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/05/15/hillary-clinton-running-mate-democrat-vice-president/84288814/

Millard Filmore


And then there is this comment about the story of Trump's self-promotion ...
@Tomi: "a Cruz-smelling rat," ... "To me it sounds like a Ted Cruz move."

Mr Cruz actually predicted this a some time ago. Its a conspiracy run by the evil liberal media, and not at all related to any love of truthiness by one party or the other.
https://newrepublic.com/article/133507/wackiest-donald-trump-conspiracy-theory-yet

>>> Before he dropped out of the race, Ted Cruz predicted this would happen. He attributed it to a liberal conspiracy: The media would sit on their most explosive Trump exposés until he’d won the nomination thanks to the invaluable free airtime they’d given him—and then destroy him with a series of damning revelations they’d been waiting to unleash. <<<

cornelius

@FIGJAM
You seem to be in pain and that's probably the reason why you forgot to mention Trump's name properly. It is "Mr. Trump". He is not a clown, scumbag, lying, clueless, America-hating, islamist, so please, show a little respect for Trump and mention his name properly.
BTW, thank you for your comments, Catriona doesn't seem to comment much these days and you seem like a good replacement. It is going to be fun :-)

And to continue my previous posts, I found an article that explains why electoral college math very rarely matters, which supports the point of the Democratic Party strategist in my previous link. Basically the demographics matter more than the electoral college math, which is why Clinton will get a VP that will help her with the demographics. BTW because the Latinos will vote against Trump anyway, then Castro may not be needed to rally the Latino vote, so he may not get on the ticket. It seems that Clinton will get a VP that will help her get the youth vote.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-worry-about-the-electoral-college-math/

chithanh

@Tomi
I think you may be underestimating (or I may be overestimating) those who see an opportunity to vote against the political establishment, which appears to be one of the factors in attracting new voters.

As one commenter on reddit puts it better than I probably could,
"It's not a D vs R thing, it's a fix shit or keep it broken thing."
https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/4j6uvh/bernie_voters_are_not_with_her_these_exit_polls/#d34dabe

Note that I am still talking about the increase in new voter registrations, ie. those who chose to vote this time but didn't before, and whether that would actually help Hillary.

Besides that, there seems to be some Sanders supporters going sour on Hillary over what they perceive as unfair treatment by the Democratic party. If that is allowed to continue for too long, an endorsement of Hillary by Sanders might be seen as empty gesture that he makes only because he has to. The influence of movements like 'Bernie or Bust' would probably come into play here.

deadonthefloor

@chithanh
Exactly. Bernie supporters are Bernie supporters because they see his path as a way to end the oligarchy. If Mr. Sanders was to endorse Hillary, his political career would be over.

His whole campaign has been: You see everybody else. They're the establishment working for the corporations to keep you down. We will lift this country up.

Anything less is a betrayal and those voters wouldn't participate. The DNC is basically giving the election to Trump by running the weaker candidate. Bernie beats The Donald by double digits in polls where Hillary is statistically tied or even loses.

cornelius

@deadonthefloor
Really? Are you suggesting that the DNC should ignore the will of the majority of the votes in order to satisfy the demands of the minority? Because Clinton will have the majority of the votes and pledged delegates. Why should the DNC cave to the blackmail of the minority?
Sanders is doing better than Clinton in polls vs Trump only because the Republicans and Trump never attacked him. Clinton has been attacked by the Republicans for years, and in the past year she has been attacked from Sanders' side as well. And still she is doing OK in polls. So the current polls are a mirage. We'll see the real polls once the primaries are over.
It is not the DNC that gives the election to Trump, if anything it is the sore losers at #BernieOrBust that will give the election to Trump. The majority has decided, it is Clinton. Any Sanders vs. Trump are preposterous and useless, because Sanders will not get the nomination.

cornelius

correction: Any Sanders vs. Trump polls are preposterous and useless, because Sanders will not get the nomination.

Millard Filmore

@FIGJAM: "... socialist of the type who has completely fucked up Western Europe ..."

Yeah, I know what you mean. I pity those poor unfortunate French workers that are saddled with having to take month long paid vacations every year.

Good thing Mr Trump won't let that happen here.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

Oh, we're getting a bit testy there are we? Haha good discussion, pls keep it going. Now in the news.. Have a guess who now has agreed to finally hire a pollster. Yes, Trump is increasingly behaving like a real candidate. I said he can't run this public polling nonsense forever. Manafort is getting through to the old bastard one step at a time..

Will they eventually actually start a datamining operation too? THAT might be a bridge too far for Trump but the pollster, that is really a 'no-brainer' as I explained, you don't want to be in a boat race where the other guy has a radar and you don't...

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Wayne Borean


Interesting stuff. I'd like to toss a couple of points out:

1) The Dems could run their own variety of voter suppression. They have Trump on camera saying how much he likes Planned Parenthood. A lot of Fundagelicals only know of Planned Parenthood as the 'baby killers' and won't vote for any candidate who backs them. If Team Hillary runs this clip constantly it is possible a lot of people may stay home, and gerrymandering could bite the Republicans on the ass in the House.

2) The Libertarian Party may also have an impact in gerrymandered districts. Note that gerrymandering impacts the House only.

3) The youth vote is going to be interesting. Since youth are harder to poll (no land line phones) we don't know their view on the election as well. We do know that four more years of them are elegible to vote in this election, just like four more years of their elders have passed on. Will they vote? If a higher percentage of them do vote, even as little as five percent of them, and they lean heavily towards one side it will have an impact.

I was re-reading our comments from last June. I'd forgotten some of the points I'd made at the time. Most of them still hold up.


Winter

@FIGJAM
"BUT thanks to the tipically socialist extreme taxation the actual disposable income was in France just $ 24.276 compared to $ 45.363 in the US..."

But the French workers have universal health care coverage and pensions, almost free college education, low crime rates, and a very good infrastructure. There is a lot of worker unrest, but this is aimed at keeping their 36 hour week and very early pensions.

They are fighting AGAINST USA conditions.

And wrt race unrest and no-go areas. I do not see why the US should try to teach the French someting.

Millard Filmore

A little real estate tax break can do wonders ... the title of this link is "Wait! What? Trump Only Makes $500k a Year?"

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/wait-what--8

It may not do anything to his massive following, but the bashing his ego will take is another thing entirely.

Wayne Borean


@FIGJAM,

Curious how local citizens France, Germany, and the U.K. are unaware of these 'No Go' areas.

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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