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« Just heard the news, hold on am on trip gotta board plane.. ie Nokia return via Foxconn | Main | Time for a new Acronym for Mobile, Digital, Media & Tech: Our New Tech Industry Sectors Are: SCIAM - Social Media, Cloud Computing, Internet of Things, Analytics, and Mobile »

May 20, 2016

Comments

chithanh

@Wayne Brady
> why haven't they buried the iPhone a long time ago

Latest numbers are 84% Android. They have made the iPhone almost irrelevant for the future of mobile (and no, mobile is not only selling phones and apps). As the iPhone is very profitable, it will still be around for a long time, but it has stopped producing innovation.

> Xiaomi's novelty pressure sensitive display....nobody else gets to use it. Samsung had it's S-Pen for years, no one else gets to use it

> You don't get better by merely have thousands of copy cat assemblers with a few innovators unwilling to integrate and share their innovations.

Once some piece of innovation catches on, you will see all manufacturers jumping on it. Niche features will be limited to few or even single manufacturer. And yes, even some Chinese white-box manufacturers have unique niche features.

I don't have any current numbers on the length of the smartphone development cycle, but some observers suggest that it is around 90 days currently, possibly less. So even if the iPhone 7 brought the next exclusive super-function that everybody will want to have, it will be Apple-exclusive only for 1/4 of a year, and 3/4 will see Android smartphones entering the arena to commoditize that feature.

On the other hand, thanks to the Apple-Samsung lawsuit we know that Apple was aware already in 2012 that the handset market grows in large screen phones. Yet it took them almost 2 years to react and make their hardware and software ready for large screens and launch an actual product (iPhone 6).

Wayne Borean


@Lullz,

You assume that Nokia hasn't been working on designs for the last two years. I assume they have, along with marketing plans, production plans, etc.

But is it an advantage for Nokia to release a phone at the earliest possible moment, or would there be a bigger advantage to wait and ratchet up the tension? I'm sure Nokia has gamed this out, and made a decision. If we wait, we'll find out.

Gaming scenarios won't prevent you from making mistakes. If you use the wrong set of assumptions, you'll crash with confidence and look like a bunch of incompetents. Or like Stephen Elop.

Skilled management know how to pick the right assumptions.

chithanh

@Lullz
> PureView seems to be owned by Microsoft

The brand yes, but the technology too?

> A generic device should be doable in 90 days or even less but creating new features may take more time.

They don't need to create new features, they just need to integrate existing ones. When fingerprint sensors became a trend following iPhone 5s launch, within a couple of months it was common for high-end phones to have one. Before that, only very few high-end devices like the Motorola Atrix had a fingerprint sensor. Today, you can find one even in the $120 Vernee Thor Android smartphone.

> Developing a 64bit OS and getting the apps to support it takes more time.

Not the handset makers, but instead Google and the SoC vendors do that for Android. Plus they were able to reap the work which others have already done in Linux to make the kernel and operating system ready for ARM64.

> It's a reasonable assumption since Nokia sold the mobile phones to Microsoft.

They also sold their tablet business (Lumia 2520) along with the phone division, but still they designed and released the Nokia N1 tablet.

iLullz

iSheep
iShhep
Only apple no generic
iSheep
iSheep

E.Casais

@Lullz

We agree on the general outlook:

1) Nokia itself has lost the people, equipment and know-how to design and manufacture phones -- gone to Microsoft, Huawei (established R&D in Finland by grabbing former good Nokia engineers), even Apple, etc.

2) FIH/Foxconn has the infrastructure and know-how to assemble phones and design generic devices, but nothing beyond that, and no marketing and sales skills;

3) HMD is a new entrant that does not have any track record or organizational know-how -- it starts from scratch.

Hence, expectations regarding new "Nokia" devices can only reasonably be kept low.

On the other hand, this statement is totally unrealistic:

"even the high end features are something a manufacturer can simply integrate on the phones."

No, integration of high-end functions is never "simple", requires quite some work in hardware and software to deal with, e.g. thermal constraints, power budget, balancing I-O performance, protocol stacks, etc; one needs to have real competence in the domain to do it right.

ShakespeareanTragedy

@manufacturingbig
Found the apple fan - anyhow yes the pureview 808 did get updates but it's preformed fairly well with no big known problems since it's last updates 3 years ago, also newsflash Symbian wasn't the only nokia software, they've made a few other things one of them which is MeeGO harmattan which is one of the most intuitive even after being abandoned and left behind and It has the awards to prove it

As for the apple software showing it's legacy besides the fact that hasn't significantly improved on whatt's there, and apple couldn't even be bothered to optimise it to bigger screens
Exhibit A: https://cdn0.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/50fpus1awanxOoA5bH4aHm677qE=/0x0:2039x1359/1280x854/cdn0.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/47633323/theonetrueipad1_2040.0.0.jpg (look at how silly those rows of 5 look at such a big screen even when up scaled ) some would argue that yes it has started to show its legacy it hasn't moved anywhere in 6 years now, some would even argue that windowsphone (putting aside the joke it calls an ecosystem) is much more visually appealing, while on android you're provided with freedom , and the fact that they implement features from competitors and advertise it as their own (if I see another stupid moving images ad holy shit!!!)
As for your i will go ahead and argue that all 3 of nokia's flagships during the windows era had all the amazing hardware features they offered these devices being the lumia 920, 1020, 1520
All of them had good cameras, super sensitive touch etc… so you chose any of them you got all these features

Also apple rather being last then claiming they are first, nfc hasn't been power hungry since the n9 days that's 5 years ago, and 3d touch hasn't picked up with many developers one year of release and many people barely ever use (normal everyday consumers that I interact with) , apple didn't even include it in the SE

At this point you just start to fanboy (not just fan. But fanboy) about apple, the fact that smartwatches released a month or so after the rumours about an apple watch, is irrelevant as companies don't develop products and ready advertising campaigns within 4 weeks and arguably the best smartwatch released to date is Motorola ones , apples smartwatch didn't meet sales expectation then went on to flop by 40% the next quarter, I'm sure their perfecting process of how to rip people off using different bands was the reason they were behind and it clearly paid off, even steve wozniak disapproved the methods of the apple watch and I'm not sure if you realise but Samsung isn't just on big head, the manufacturing facilities are run by a completely different division to the smartphone division they don't even have the same ceo's so if you think Samsung is breaching customer confidentiality then you're unto something that none of us caught on you genius, not sure if you realise but these companies have ways of knowing these things way earlier than prototype stage your guess is as good as mine, and to add even more unto that google has live demos of self-driving cars, I'm sure the opened the company and hour early to cook something up and made their self-driving cars on a Friday morning before the weekend because these products totally don't take months and sometimes years to develop

As for their wide protofolio of products many patented ideas that they developed are products they offer, virtual reality cameras are a products they even just signed a deal with disney for a few years, their networking division sell an array of products, heck they're setting up the infrastructure for 5G in dubai and are currently working on the national broadband network in australia ( a country wide upgrade of their internet) they're all products, and if those don't count neither do all of apple's non smartphones related producst which they btw have released like 20 or so over the last 10 years
And finally regarding your updates claims,
1. android doesn't shut out apps from older software devices when it updates
2. Android has a large supporting community that gets you the updates to your device if needs
3. Pretty much you don't miss out on much by not updating your device, and you can still update thanks to a big supporting community
4. Windowsphone updates but 3 years old devices and other devices were given an unofficial way updating from microsoft
5. Apple on the other hand forces the updates on you (and oh boy it runs great on the iphone 5 ) so great that people are forced to update
6. And shuts you out of new app updates if you don't update

Now i don't deny that apple makes great products but you're simply out of your mind

Winter

Not sure whether this belongs here, but it is relevant to Android.

Things move the wrong way for Oracle in their fight against Google and Open Source in general.

Jury finds Google's implementation of Java in Android was fair use
http://techcrunch.com/2016/05/26/jury-finds-googles-implementation-of-java-in-android-was-fair-use/

chithanh

@Lullz
> Some people seem to think that Nokia didn't really sell the know-how to Microsoft.

They unloaded some staff, and licensed patents. They kept the patents and the staff they wanted to keep.

> You obviously missed the point.

No. But you seem to be desperate to construct some unfavourable scenario for Nokia.

> Indeed. A generic device that sold out a minimal batch in a matter of minutes. Or few of those.

You still haven't understood the purpose of the N1.

chithanh

Paul Thurrott writes that Microsoft lost upwards of $10 billion on the Nokia acquisition.
https://www.thurrott.com/mobile/windows-phone/67443/windows-phone-morning

Assuming he is correct, we can do some numbers. Microsoft's acquisition of the Nokia phone business closed in April 2014.
Since then, they shipped 28.0M + 28.6M + 2.3M = 58.9M Lumias. This means they effectively subsidized every Lumia produced during the time when they owned Nokia's phone division with almost 170$.

Nokia not only received $7.5 billion from the deal, but Microsoft also kindly footed $2.5+ billion in continued losses, restructuring and layoff costs.

Realizing this made me feel the closest to sorry I felt for Microsoft in years.

Santiago

"Nokia will provide HMD with branding rights and cellular standard essential patent licenses in return for royalty payments, but will not be making a financial investment or holding equity in HMD. Nokia Technologies will take a seat on the Board of Directors of HMD and set mandatory brand requirements and performance related provisions to ensure that all Nokia-branded products exemplify consumer expectations of Nokia devices, including quality, design and consumer focused innovation"

I really doubt that means that Nokia will be designing and creating new features. I think Nokia will only license the brand and provide some input. I haven't found any technolohlgy/R&D mention regarding HMD, but only FIH:

"This agreement will give HMD full operational control of sales, marketing and distribution of Nokia-branded mobile phones and tablets, with exclusive access to the pre-eminent global sales and distribution network to be acquired from Microsoft by FIH, access to FIH's world-leading device manufacturing, supply chain and engineering capabilities, and to its growing suite of proprietary mobile technologies and components."

So maybe technology will come from that "suit of proprietary mobile technologies with some guidelines from Nokia regarding design and features to make the phones consistent with the Nokia brand image.

Even if they keep Pureview, ClearBlack, etc.: How much time will be until those technologies are not competitive anymore?

Not saying that these new phones can't/won't succeed by using technologies from Foxconn, just thnk it won't be what it was years ago.

As even was said in that official article: "Branding has become a critical differentiator in mobile phones, which is why our business model is centered on the unique asset of the Nokia brand and our extensive experience in sales and marketing."

So I don't think this will be SO much different than Foxconn licensing directly from Nokia, only with more experienced sales and marketing (by HMD) (something that Foxconn lacks).

iLullz

@chithanh

Will you know Lullz is troll?
Stop talk to troll
She wont know
She blind
She only want to talk her story
Useless talk to her
Lullz is troll
Lullz is iSheep

chithanh

@Lullz
> You are probably hoping it was like that.

We know it was like that. Only 32,000 of 90,000 staff were transferred to Microsoft. The handset division wasn't even the majority of the workforce.

> It was a generic device almost any company could have produced, only needed to keep the brand alive and also to get some data from the market.

Closer but still no dice.

chithanh

@Lullz

> You assume Nokia didn't move key developers from the mobile division to Microsoft.

What reason did they have to move developers to Microsoft they wanted to retain for their mobile return? None.

> The tablet was a generic device almost any company cold have produced.

Indeed, and you failed to grasp what was the purpose of the N1.

chithanh

@Lullz
> And what's exactly your proof about Nokia not moving the developers? Your hopes?

Nokia already designed the sales contract to allow future return to smartphone market. Note how they licensed the brand for dumbphones (a market they did not plan to return to) for many more years than for smartphones (a market they did plan to return to)

> I'm sure you could explain your guessing about it to us :D

I explained it to you already. It was a pipe-cleaner to test cooperation with Foxconn and gauge market interest.

Abdul Muis

http://www.theverge.com/circuitbreaker/2016/5/27/11795224/jolla-c-smartphone-sailfish-community-device-program

Second Jolla's Phone.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

Ok.. wrote my 'told you so' blog .. ahem .. article (26,000 words haha) covering every forecast I made about the Nokia Saga with Windows, Lumia and Elop up to the Microsoft ownership of that unit. Every item links to the original contemporary blog posting where I first made that given forecast or prediction. Enjoy

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

BTW all..

One way to think of the turn-of-events is, that Nokia forced Microsoft to pay for the damage done by their boy Elop. Nokia was at 3% market share when the handset biz was sold so any hope of a strong handset play was gone. What did Nokia extract in its blackmail? Alcatel-Lucent. The money Microsoft paid Nokia effectively gave Nokia A-L while leaving enough for Nokia to also buy a few smaller companies - AND buy the remnants of Nokia now back... And forced Microsoft to carry the costs of the Windows/Lumia people brought onboard (to fire those) while having Microsoft also carry the firing costs of 4/5 of the remaining Nokia handset people effective start of 2015.

If we go back to 2010 (when Elop hired) almost no Nokia executive or shareholder would have traded the HIGHLY profitable handset business including strongly-growing smartphone unit, for Alcatel-Lucent haha. Remember at that time the view was, that networks was a dead business, loss-making, and Nokia tried to unload its NokiaSiemens Networking unit. BUT if we look at year 2013, by the time when Elop had done his damage (recalling, he did much of that in secret from the Board, not reporting to them what he was doing, and not obeying them either) - by 2013 when the handset business was producing huge losses and the smartphone biz was down from 35% to 3% - at that time most Nokia shareholders and probably many execs - would accept that to dump the loss-making handset biz, in exchange for buying Alatel-Lucent was a reasonably 'fair deal' haha.

Now Nokia kind of gets that handset biz back too - ok, only via licencing but out of the wasteland of Windows, so there is a growth opportunity to those licence fees haha - then this is a kind of win-win out of a total disaster (which threatened a bankruptcy for Nokia as a corporation by 2013).

As those Nokia handset biz sale discussions started in late 2012 (Elop and Ballmer) and got serious in February 2013 (Siilasmaa and Ballmer, Elop not included) - this has been a pretty Jedi move smart play by Nokia Board - AFTER they totally fucked it up with Elop in the first place (and that ridiculous bonus clause...).

One last part. Dumbphones will be gone. So what Hon Hai/Foxconn has as a licence is not that valuable. But the smartphone biz will be 2 Billion units sold per year and this New Nokia/Retronokia will get to a Top 3 position, I am certain of that, on Android. It would not be in any way beyond the realm of possibilities, that Nokia buy back that smartphone business part in a few years, after it is well set, profitable and growing. Wouldn't it be awesome if then Nokia ALSO bought Jolla/Sailfish and went into a Sailfish-driven fork of Android, to a 'best user interface' thinking on a Nokia mindset, while holding Android apps compatibility.. A kind of MeeGo version 3.0 haha..

If Nokia really works at repairing its carrier relationships - and as Samsung keeps messing up its opportunity with Tizen - a Nokia+NTT DoCoMo+China Mobile+a few European carriers (Vodafone/Telefonica/Telenor/Orange etc) could build Sailfish/MeeGo 3.0 as the genuine third ecosystem, alongside and as a fork of Android, as also a 'defensive play' against Google and 'pure' Android. One where carriers had far more control and .. Nokia core competence - the mobile wallets, app payments etc were based on .. carrier billing.

I could SOOOO see this happening on a 2-5 year window.

(gotta put all these wild fantasy-ideas on the blog, as apparently the gods of tech also read the CDB blog, and look favorably upon the humble writer here, sending his prayers, haha)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Santiago

That would be awesome!
Really hope there's something new like that to cut with the stupid spec-trends-iphoneclones war there's at the moment haha

Tomi T Ahonen

Jaakko

Wow, awesome story, THANKS !!! I Tweeted it now mentioned you and KL. Thanks. Thats heartwarming. I am 100% certain that emotion is all over the world among thousands of ex-Nokians

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

SRSLY Guys..

you guys are the best. This blog comments section has so much really amazing info and insights and valuable comments (plus the usual back and forth among who is what kind of sheep) and then yeah, some clown comes in pushing Windows propaganda, ignore him, I'm deleting that now. But yeah.. when I'm away for a couple of days, if some random new visitor posts a good question, you guys jump in and give really good responses and this is really a delight for ME to read. I can imagine what its for the random person here for the first time. Honestly. Thanks (and thanks Jaakko, that was awesome)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

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