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« The Nokia Saga Predictions on This Blog: Full Listing with Links | Main | How is that 10 Dollar iPhone (clone) Prediction Coming, for 2020? Lets do an update »

May 30, 2016

Comments

Tomi T Ahonen

Lets go to the comments

Winter... on 'Denmark' and Finland (and Hong Kong). Yeah. It IS plausible that Trump becomes President. The biggest chance is that Hillary has a heart attack or dies of natural causes (or assassination) in the Autumn. Even then its not certain but yes, plenty of very unlikely scenarios are out there - Hillary COULD be indicted and actually convicted and then lose the election and/or be in prison etc.

If Trump were to become President, we've seen how unpredictable he is and how thin-skinned. Also how ignorant he is of how the world works, and what the Presidency involves and what the US military is and can do (and cannot do). Meanwhile over in Grand Putinistan, Czar Vladimir the Great is a genuine megalomaniacical world domination GENIUS who REALLY knows how the world works - and who is ruthless to use every trick he can think of, to his advantage. He would play Trump like a violin. By inviting Trump over - giving him the 'Order of Lenin' and naming some irrelevant city in Siberia after Trump - he would get Trump to be all eager to be Putin's friend. Then Putin would do his nasty tricks while Trump tried to figure out what is happening. So imagine an invasion of Poland, splitting Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania apart from the rest of NATO, then invading Finland.. All while Trump sucks his thumb and tries to deal with an angry press and a furious military where one four-star-General after the next resigns in protest.

Then at some point comes the inevitable Trump OVER-reaction. Now he goes and launches a nuke-tipped Tomahawk cruise missile at some town recently taken over by the Russian military. And now we are on the brink of nuclear war, where Putin has no qualms about going full out - the Russian army regularly TRAINS for nuke war mission - and meanwhile Trump likes to threaten and bully, but almost always is then forced to back down and compromise. End result - break up NATO, hopefully with no more cities glowing of nuclear radiation but quite possibly several indeed doing that. What would be the kind of retaliation that Putin could push Trump where the US would butt out of Europe? Say a nuke retaliation taking out Diego Garcia island - including a US carrier task force stationed there and its massive military base. Putin says the next bomb will be in Pittsburgh unless Trump takes US troops out of Europe. Trump cannot threaten Putin by wiping out Smolensk because Putin is not a properly elected ruler who could be voted out of office - Putin would say - go ahead, if you bomb Smolensk, I then take out New York City. Trump could not go into that game without being impeached. BUT Putin would get what he wants, a broken NATO - after which Putin can snatch all of non-Nuclear Europe piece-meal. So a rump-Europe would then remain behind the nuclear shields of France and Britain. All the rest would belong to Czar Vladimir the Great.

Now Hillary. Will be the exact opposite. The TINIEST attempt by Putin to play her, is what she has been waiting for - she wants to prove she is as tough as steel, as was Indira Ghandi or Golda Meir or Margaret Thatcher. Whoever is the first fool international leader to test Hillary, will get her MEASURED but POWERFUL immediate - long planned, perfectly executed MASSIVE reaction. To tell the world, Hillary is no Obama. She is the new Iron Lady. Don't mess with Amurickah.

But yeah.. truly frightening mind-games to imagine, if Trump the child was really in command. Bush the Lesser was a near-child and a horribly bad President. But he'd now seem like a wise old man, compared to Trump. Luckily in ANY likely scenario, Trump will not win the White House (and if he did become President, he'd be impeached and in the various congressional hearings in the aftermath, he'd be found to have run a ridiculous amount of government scams to try to steal as much money as conceivable while in office).

Then on game theory. Trump is definitely using his 'standard' tactics he wrote about in the Art of the Deal. He starts with outrageously extreme opening gambits - knowing that is beyond reasonable, to help get him what he actually wants. He also has clearly been playing the unpredictability card, and separate from the game theory article you linked to, we've discussed several times about the OODA loop. Trump moves faster than his rivals to keep them off their game.

All of this works BEST if it is not known to the other side. I've been to those negotiations MANY times where we KNEW the other side was into power negotiating, and then all the tricks are literally useless. We were not intimidated, we had our position in mind, this is our last negotiating position, after which we walk - sometimes those resulted in us getting what we wanted (or more) and other times we walked. But the intimidation never worked - because we also knew that gambit and what was being played. Trump's wild negotiation gambits - and game theory in areas like 'chicken' - they can backfire. Why it all worked so well in the past 11 months was because the Republican rivals were totally taken by surprise. It might have been so for Hillary too - we will never know - if she had been the first to experience this from Trump. But as Trump showed his whole style for 11 months out in the open - including such things as massively signalling that he will boycott the debate with Megyn Kelly - it was not that much a surprise - and by now for Hillary in the Autumn - most of this 'normal Trump' is essentially as easy as reading his book.

What I would do - and hopefully the Hillary team or her SuperPAC will do - is to show how BAD Trump is at this. How CONSISTENTLY his bullying tactics BACKFIRE and he doesn't get what he demanded. And how often he has to back down and look like a fool. Take the demand that Fox remove Megyn Kelly from the debates. How many times Trump demanded it. Then he finally boycotted the debate because of it. And did it work? No, he not only did not get Megyn off the debate, Trump lost Iowa because of this stupid gambit. And Megyn was there for the next debate they had. It was a 100% failure on Trump's stupid gambit. If this argument is made - some who are undecided about Trump but who admire his 'strength' and how he is 'a winner' will see, no actually, this is dumb and stupid and mostly this method brings failure. It would be supremely stupid to let this same method be brought into the White House.

Now on the NUANCE of game theory. I don't think Trump is that nuanced to do it well. He only knows the bully method - then he threatens to sue you next. Look at HIS ATTORNEYS. What Trump says, compared to what his attorneys say. Like the 'recusing' demand by Trump of the California 'Mexican' judge on the Trump University case. Trump has been demanding in public that the judge recuse himself. Yet his attorneys have (wisely) never made that motion in court. What Trump does - ONLY - is to worsen the reaction by the judge, this will never help - but his attorneys know. Trump is not smart enough to understand nuance. He only believes in brute force and threats. Like one of Tony Soprano's least intelligent goons. So if it were to be a use of game theory, I think Hillary's team would run circles around Trump on that side. But they don't NEED to. Because of.. Big Data.

The game theory use, requires the gamer to make educated guesses of what will happen on that gamer's next gambit. Some are better at this and some are worse (Trump). But Hillary doesn't NEED to guess. She has the Big Data machine which KNOWS what is the best play. She runs 10,000 interviews EVERY DAY in EVERY BATTLEGROUND STATE on every conceivable issue to determine which is the MOST DEVASTATING way to hit Trump, for lasting effect, now. What is an attack best to wait, what is an attack that best works now. What works best in Ohio, what works better in Virginia, what is the best for Florida, etc.

This is like taking a super computer to Las Vegas. Yes, there still is an element of chance in every game, but if you have actually counted all the cards already played in the game of Blackjack, and then count the odds of what remain, and can do that consistently for every hand, and only bet when your chances are FAR better than 50/50 - you beat the house. Which is why they monitor every gamer and every table, to spot those who cheat, who have some tech or gadgets or partners or whatever, to cheat the system. At the moment, as long as Trump doesn't build rapidly a Big Data system, he is INHERENTLY weaker in every gaming decision. Trump might BY LUCK accidentially hit on the right play, occasionally - in ONE state, on one issue. Hillary hits the right play in EVERY state on EVERY issue EVERY time - because each of those scenarios has already been TESTED against ACTUAL VOTERS on the largest panel ever measured in politics of any nation.

Its like having a swordfight where one guy has to wear a blindfold - he literally cannot see anything - and the other guy sees perfectly. The blind guy CANNOT win.

(ok more comments coming)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Winter

Then on Johnson. Yeah, haha, he will be an interesting play against Trump. The sad thing is, that he is not a strong CANDIDATE as such. He's really about as exciting as George Pataki. So I am afraid that he will be severely diminished simply because he is so boring (plus obviously a total fringe candidacy on a shoestring budget etc where Trump hogs all the media attention and Hillary gets what is available of the rest).

But yeah on pardoning Snowden - that is very much a Libertarian view - also some in the Obama administration have been hinting at it, but Obama himself just came out a few days ago saying no, Snowden is a criminal. I do think Obama will pardon Snowden but after the election is over, so sometime in late November or maybe December. But this illustrates again how the Libertarians will find some common cause with the Democrats and against a mainstream Republican viewpoint. I'd love for the Libertarians to gain a 10% or bigger share of the House and have a couple of Senators eventually too. Would make the USA a bit more rational and sensible, where it would not be so totally bipolar.

Now if the Libertarians really understand their opportunity, they should find one or two strong candidates to run against a vulnerable Republican in red states where a strong-ish Democrat is also in that race. Don't try to win 50 seats. Try to win 20. But use the Johnson ticket attention (which will lose to Hillary) to WIN SOMETHING. To win House seats. To have a legacy from this Trump year, so that the Libertarians can start to think of themselves as more than a cooky fringe party. I am not so sure they have that level of discipline and intellect - thinking of the one guy who did that strip-tease at their convention. If your party has a reputation of being the nutcases then you also attract the nutcases and it will be difficult to try to convert this into a real rational party of some sense. LEGALIZE POT !!! Haha.

Then on mentally unstable. Yeah. Agreed. Narcissist racist bully. I think to really simplify Trump to his core, he is a 5 year old only child boy. A spoiled brat. If he doesn't get what he wants, he throws a fit. He never had to grow up and never had to learn to take responsibility for his actions, so he learned to always blame others and because his dad was so rich, he got away with it, learning to think he never made any mistakes himself.

Oh, I'd really love to know what he is ACTUALLY worth. I am getting increasingly convinced that Trump is up to his ears in debt. His actual net worth is far less than one Billion dollars - and the VALUE of his possessions is declining continuously as he demolishes the value of the Trump brand. I saw a Tweet - didn't read the article (behind some paywall) which suggested Trump owes 100 million dollars to a FOREIGN bank. That would be a colossal conflict-of-interest, gosh. The US President is indebted to a foreign bank. How convenient for that bank and that government.... ouch indeed.

But if the cornelius scenario turns out, and Trump quits the race, then he will of course postpone and refuse to release his tax returns, all the way to the date he drops out of the race.

But boy would the Republicans have a hissy fit, if Trump screwed them like that haha. Except what can they do. Well, I've been saying Trump is playing the ultimate scam on the Republican voters.. they should learn to vet their candidates better and not fall for con artists like Trump (and stop watching Fox Fake News and various other fake news people like Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck, Ann Coulter and gang)

PS thanks for the 224 list, yeah. Trump is truly epic. He is like Elop in that way, he is exploring every mistake one could imagine, in trying to destroy this race.

(more comments coming)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Millard Filmore

@Tomi: Deutsche Bank ... a good reason to keep tax returns hidden, and this one leaves a paper trail, unlike any organized crime involvement.

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/6/1/1533142/-Trump-has-a-100-million-conflict-of-interest

Tomi T Ahonen

Millard

THANKS !!! I love you guys, you are so fast... thanks yeah. So its Deutsche Bank ie biggest bank of Germany. Trump owes them 100 million. I'd say that is a SLIGHT conflict-of-interest yeah... almost like, you'd want the Presidential nominee to shift that loan to a US bank, wouldn't you? Even if it 'cost' Trump some hundreds of thousands. Why didn't the GOP vet this guy? Why didn't they demand tax returns? I think in the eventual Trump aftermath, both parties will institute rules that any candidate has to release something like 5 years of tax returns before Super Tuesday votes, or else they will have their delgates re-allocated in every subsequent vote, until they release their tax returns and only after that, can they start to accumulate more delegates... this is (yet another) disaster which currently almost nobody has thought about. The potential US President PERSONALLY owes 100 million to a foreign bank. He HAS to release his tax returns. This is totally unacceptable. How can the 'fiscally responsible' Republicans allow this?

PS if its 100 million to DB, how much more to other banks abroad? Betcha this is only the tip of that iceberg...

Tomi Ahonen :-)

cornelius

I tried to measure the impact of the Bernie or Bust movement in the general elections. A good way to measure it was by comparing to types of RCP polls: Trump vs Clinton and Trump vs Sanders. In general elections polls Clinton leads Trump by 1.5% and Sanders leads Trump by 10.4%. So the difference between Clinton and Sanders is 8.9%
Now I compare the same polls in the most contested swing states and the difference between Clinton and Sanders is only 6.25%
This shows that in swing states the impact of Bernie or Bust is significantly diminished. And consequently the impact of Bernie or Bust is increased in non swing states where is doesn't matter anyway. This only makes sense because in the swing states people realize the Trump danger and vote in a more responsible manner. I think the impact of the Bernie or Bust movement has been overrated and will only fade away as the election day approaches.

Tomi T Ahonen

And then an observation..

The Trump University story seems to indeed have more legs than the Veterans contributions lag and exaggertions. CNN just ran a segment with Anderson Cooper that was quite hilarious the one Trump mouthpiece sounded like a brainwashed lunatic... but yeah. This item will run several news cycles and will have several iterations. It is NEW attacks that damage Trump MORE while Hillary has not had one new attack since emailgate, everything else Trump has thrown at her (or Bill) is old news.

Now, for how bad Trump University deliberate scam was, it is only one, only ONE of the many hideous faults of Trump's personality, and past, that will be coming in the vast archives of Hillary's 'Oppo file' (ie Opposition Research file). So for example the 4 bankruptcies. Then the fights with labor unions. Then the use of temporary immigrant labor to deny Americans of the same jobs. These will all help sour the love that white blue-collar men (and some women) have of Trump. He is the msot despicable rich bully boss they all hate. They just haven't heard that part yet - because Repblicans don't mind severe bosses, they admire rich bosses. But now its the Democrats' turn to show that 'other cheek' of Trump's 'business career' and how abusive he's been specifically against blue-collar workers. TONS of dirt there.

Then there is Trump's past with women, really degrading nasty stuff. It will all come out. Then there are the failed businesses - taking away the image of his business 'smartness' - you don't want Trump to do to the USA what he did to his businesses. Then tons tons tons more (like haha that 100 million dollar loan to Deutsche Bank - I betcha the Hillary Oppo team had that item already). But because there is so much of it, they have categorized all, and have timed the attacks. When will the labor-related voters of Ohio get serious about the general election - when is the OPTIMAL time to launch the anti-Trump labor attacks in general, and when specifically in Ohio, and on which of the various scandals and issues. There is for example one lawsuit that the labor unions ran against Trump which was just denied an appeal to the Supreme Court. It doesn't matter whether Trump 'won' that appeal - that it was not taken by the Supreme Court - there is PLENTY of anger by the unions about Trump and that will all come out - when the time is right. And that will play VERY strongly in Ohio, the best case for Trump to win in the 'rust belt'. If he can't win Ohio, he has no chance in Pennsylvania or Wisconsin (he has no chance in Michigan anyway). And if he loses Ohio by a significant margin, then Indiana might go blue as well...

Then its a DIFFERENT main line of attack in Virginia (women) and a different line of attack in Florida (Hispanics) etc... Hillary will also have different SURROGATES who work well in given states - Obama will play very well in Ohio because he saved Detroit's car makers. The labor unions were lukewarm to Obama but in Ohio, they love him. So when Obama comes to Ohio for Hillary, and says beware of Trump - they will pay attention....

Anyway. Look at how this Trump University story plays in the next two weeks or so. It is a prototype of how the various (dozens and dozens) of attacks from the Hillary campaign will be hitting Trump - on always NEW topics that Trump has not been tested. Each will cut him more, each will limit more his ability to climb, and each will start to erode some of the least-committed support. And now, if any 'remotely plausible' rival can emerge - Johnson - suddenly all this damage will take a different level of damage, as various Republicans and conservaties (plus Johnson and Weld of course themselves) will hit Trump on whatever is his latest fraud or misdeed.

Trump will of course still keep hitting 'crooked Hillary' but those accusations will sound like 'the same old song' by September, while Hillary's team will come up with ever more nasty stuff, new and damaging, to keep pushing Trump to new levels of unprecedented unpopularity.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Continuing on the comments

Millard - thanks (to John Fro) yeah, it seems quite unlikely that Hillary would be indicted but she may be somehow reprimanded, get a slap on her wrist - note, Colin Powell was FAR WORSE and nobody is screaming for Powell to be persecuted. This is clearly pure politics ie a witch-hunt. That also is quite severely frowned-upon by the Courts. Meanwhile, news just broke that Trump has been invoved in over 3,000 lawsuits - about half that he instigated, half where he is the defendant. Yeah, the most litigious candidate to ever run, most def. And gosh, there will be dirt there. It must be a very special type of task, to just go through all open court documents (those that were not sealed) to read what all Trump PERSONALLY has testified to - and what kind of ridiculous stuff is there - like for example, the point that Trump admitted to using an alias when calling press early in his real estate career. Its so funny that he'd try to deny it now, when he is in SWORN TESTIMONY in court documents admitting it.

A whole line of attack is open to Hillary and the Democrats that Trump is a serial liar, and a blatant, straight-faced liar. To have Trump say straight into camera something, then have Trump say the exact opposite also to camera (or for example read from court documents of Trump's own testimony). Now, obviously, Hillary accusing Trump of lying is a bit like the pot calling the kettle black but some others can do this, one of the SuperPACs or an interest group.

Then on Trump U, yeah, am a few days behind and you were right, it has heated up quite a lot. I don't think we are even at its apex yet. Those statements by the students are bad, the statements by ex teachers/sales guys are FAR worse. They are openly admitting it was a fraud. Thats pretty darned nasty. And then there should also emerge that link - Trump promised he would personally hire the best teachers (and he admits now in court documents that he didn't). Now, where have we heard that recently? Oh, Trump's cabinet, it will be the best people. Will it? Will it be as well hand-picked as Trump U with as many crooked con-artists and pushy sales people to screw America, as the Trump U sales reps were screwing those who came for the free first seminar.

cornelius - yeah, thanks. As I wrote in the above long ago, wow that thought is REALLY powerful, a very likely scenario. I think its more likely than not, that Trump will quit before November, to try to avoid the 'reality' of the loss in the actual vote (even as he can't escape the ballot, he will be there and the nation will vote against him).

I wonder if Trump might not commit suicide before election day. I am not wishing that, in fact I hope he lives longer than Mondale so he can really suffer the rest of his life, having tasted this brief glory and then be exiled forever and to see his name become a curse word in politics. But since he seems to be very childish and unstable, and have an incredibly thin skin, and who takes it very personally when for example the media just do their job - it must grate upon him. i wonder if he might actually try to get out by attempting suicide. And I really REALLY don't want him dead. I want him to live long into past 100 years of age, to continue to suffer the humiliation of the aftermath of this year and his pathetic life.

Winter - thanks for the links. Yeah, I've now covered the Trump U story in the above, in enough detail haha.

oibur - true and that too will have plenty of nasty aftermath. For example one of the 'veterans groups' that Trump contributed to now, is actually a semi scam group itself. So much for his 4 months of vetting haha. Now stories coming out that Trump's timeline is not consistent with the calls and the money distributions. And the temper tantrum Trump had with the press - when they literally were doing their job - has been a good wake-up call where the press are waking up to how much Trump is childish about this, and they - the press - do have to do their job, properly. All this means Trump will be under ever more honest and serious scrutiny - just as his troubles keep getting worse. Yeah. Smart play to pick a fight with the whole press corps. Its about as dumb as picking a fight with that judge.

Winter - haha yeah. Trump's behavior would have ended any other campaign in the past. It shows how much he is made of teflon, and how much he is a natural talent - and this means, in the future, successful politicians WILL be taking lessons from Trump's run. But obviously they won't be mad and go make every voting block hate them.

As to New York haha, gosh, Trump really has a knack to get into trouble, doesn't he. I do wish that brings him some reprimand but I don't expect it to really register. He has plenty of far worse sins on his soul. But yeah, I'd love Trump to suffer at every level - so be fined for example for those cases of hijacking his own building when his contract said he has to keep spaces open to the public. Trump HATES to pay, I hope they fine him like half a million dollars haha..>

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

So on the map

Trump is again in California (so is Hillary, obviously the Democrats have a primary there next week). Trump AGAIN in California. He is down 12 points to Hillary in California by CURRENT polls, this is before the moronic comments that there is no drought in California, before Jerry Brown's endorsement of Hillary, before the Democratic race has ended and the party unifies behind Hillary and before the big Democratic machine has been fully awakened - that wait, Trump is fighting in our backyard?

Trump is behind about 2 points in Ohio, Virginia and Florida. That is definitely 'doable' in a month. If Trump can hold all states that Romney won in 2012, and wins Florida and either Ohio or Virginia, he becomes the next President. In those three states he is about 2 points behind. Instead of fighting feverishly to flip that modest gap, he goes and spends days - DAYS - in California where he is 12 points behind and where he will lose by 20 points by the time all factors of California have fully played out (huge Hispanic community, most expensive TV ad market). This is again.. utter madness.

Hillary will take the California time any day of any week. She is AHEAD in Ohio, Virginia and Florida - unless Trump goes and FIGHTS to try to take those states, she wins by default. She is ALSO ahead in at least two more states that Obama lost in 2012 - North Carolina and Arizona (by also about 2 points). If Trump runs a perfect campaign in California he could maybe bring California to a single-digit loss by November, say 7 points. If Trump moved in and stayed in California to fight for it. And most likely, because its SUCH a liberal state, such a Democratic state - such a DIVERSE state with minorities, if Hillary just keeps showing up, she'll win it by 12 points even if Trump runs a great campaign there. He can't win California. Not being Trump and against Hillary Clinton this year. That is not in the cards.

But every day he wastes in California, is yet one more day he is not in Ohio, Virginia or Florida - two of those three states Trump HAS to win or he will not be President. Hillary can afford to LOSE all THREE, if she picks up a few other states Obama lost like North Carolina, Arizona and say Georgia. And Hillary is AHEAD in 5 of those six states. In every case Trump would have to OUTPERFORM Hillary while Trump's popularity is worse, his campaign is worse, his message is worse, his surrogates are worse, his budget is FAR worse and Hillary has the Big Data machine tuned to win all those states.

When I see Trump in Sacramento California, I just smile broadly. Yes please Mr Trump, don't come home. Stay another day in California, please. When people review this year in the future they will all conclude Trump had to be mad, and had to have the most incompetent team ever assembled in US politics.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

virgil

Actually Tomi I've watched you for quite a while. I never said that you'd ignore an blatantly wrong prediction - but I believe that if that happens, you'll write a blog post where you rationalise your prediction error ("nobody thought Trump could win", "prediction is hard so of course I'll get it wrong sometimes", "I did get some (largely irrelevant) aspects right", "the reason why I was ultimately wrong was X which nobody did or could've predicted", etc). What you likely won't do is write a blogpost titled "I am an idiot". Which is what I asked in the first place - since you rushed to call idiots all those who say Trump has more than a fair chance of winning.

Oibur

@Virgil

Sorry, but this is very easy to predict who will win in Trump vs Hillary. If one does not let his/her feelings to stay in the way, then he/she will see very easily the evidence that Trump has no way of winning presidential elections ever. One does not have to be a genius to figure out that Trump has no real chance of winning a presidential election.

@Tomi

It is guaranteed that Trump will pull unexpected idiotic stunts that nobody with a half-of-brain or more would have thought possible. I guess that nobody (including Trump himself) is able to predict the idiotic stunts of Trump. Clearly Trump is having fun now. Maybe Trump could hire Elop to lead his campaign?

If I would be the GOP I would never ever pay anything to Trump (not even to cover those 44 million $ debt of his) and I would drive Trump (by feeding him with false hopes that he has a great chance to win) to spend even more from his own money from now on (because this hurts Trump's feelings the most). GOP needs badly (and counts on it) that Hillary will obliterate Trump.

Winter

@Virgil
"I never said that you'd ignore an blatantly wrong prediction - but I believe that if that happens, you'll write a blog post where you rationalise your prediction error "

You do not understand the function of a prediction. A prediction or forecast is a test of your understanding. If you prediction turns out wrong your understanding was wrong. You investigate what went wrong and LEARN. That is not a rationalization, that is the only way to learn new things. In the past, I have seen Tomi learn from his errors. If Trump wins the presidency, we can learn a lot about the people in the US and the inner workings of USA politics. If Hillary wins, we learn nothing. As much as I want to learn more about the US and its people, I admit that this time I prefer to learn nothing.

It is clear that the GOP has learned nothing from their losses in 2008 and 2012. They were convinced they would win and they lost badly. THEY were the ones who refused to learn. On the other hand, the Democrats learned a lot from the losses of the Republicans.

Oibur

@Winter

> A prediction or forecast is a test of your understanding.

Actually, it is a little bit more complicated than that. A prediction or a forecast is test of your model which is used to model the phenomena. One can understand a phenomena but still not being able to build a good model for predictions. The goodness of a model can be measured in many ways but the most important are the accuracy of the prediction and the complexity of the model.

> If Trump wins the presidency, we can learn a lot about the
> people in the US and the inner workings of USA politics.
> If Hillary wins, we learn nothing.

I disagree here. If Hillary wins we still learn a lot.

Winter

@Oibur
Indeed, to both of your points. But I wanted to keep it concise.

We will indeed learn something from a win by Hillary, but that is a "rounding error" of what we would learn if Trump won (except if he won by default if Hillary could not run for any reason).

Winter

Talk about a divisive politician

The War Among the Donald Trump Super PACs
http://time.com/4354564/donald-trump-super-pac-campaign-finance/

Winter

More on Trump U

Trump University model: Sell hard, demand to see a warrant

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/trump-university-model-sell-hard-demand-to-see-a-warrant/2016/06/02/ead7b7ac-2896-11e6-8329-6104954928d2_story.html

Oibur

Sooo... Trump brand is getting damage due to his political (mis)adventure.

Trump angry as golf tournament is moved to Mexico

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-36431731

virgil

@Oibur I disagree, and let me just say that I'm eastern-european, we're pretty much fucked if Trump gets the presidential seat (unless EU gets its shit together, which seems unlikely too). So no, I'm not a staunch Trump supporter. That doesn't stop me from seeing that he has more than a fair chance to win.

@Winter you are right when it's a simple prediction. But when you call all the people who don't agree "idiots", even when they have sound arguments (and a track record of predicting well this election, based on said arguments)... I say you're no longer just testing your model

cornelius

@virgil
It's one thing to see the race from Romania and quite another to see the race from inside the US. I live in California and I can tell you. Calling Trumps supporters "idiots" may not be politically correct but it is the truth. Currently there are two major movements inside the GOP. The Trump movement which appeals to the idiots and the Tea Party which appeals to the religious nutcases. GOP can't really get rid of these factions because there is not much left after that.
I may be wrong but I think you suffer from the post-communist syndrome. The communism (or socialism or whatever you want to call it) was so horrible in Romania that as a reaction, you tend to drift to the right more than you normally would. I know this because it happened to me. I used to vote for Partidul Național Țărănesc and Convenția Democrată Română but since I moved to Canada in 1997 I realized that social-democracy is actually not bad at all.

Tomi T Ahonen

158 days left to election day

Dig, dig, dig, deeper into the hole I must myself now dig...

Hi everybody. Yes 158 days left. Where is the Trumpster? In San Diego. That is California. He's still there. The RCP average had Trump down 16 points to Hillary. That average includes polling from early May before Hillary started to campaign in California. What are the latest polls saying? Marist, one of the best pollsters (with NBC and Wall Street Journal) has the California race today at 24 point lead for Hillary. Poll came out yesterday, interviews in the past 5 days. Field had another poll in the same period, has the race as a 19 point lead for Hillary. It is IMPOSSIBLE for Trump to win in California unless Hillary physically is removed from the race (ie heart attack or something). If Trump fights really hard - he's now been in California for three days in a row at least - he could get that difference down to high single digits, 7% 8% 9% by November, and lose still in a landslide in the state. But every day he sits in San Diego, he is not in Ohio or Virginia or Florida, where Trump HAS to win or he won't become President. Like I said, this is sweet for those who hope he won't win.

Then the other troubles. The judge in the Trump University case. He is now escallating that fight. Thats just dumb. So just like CNN just now had David Gergen lecturing that moron Trump supporter-spokeswoman - you cannot exclude judges based on race in America. You can exclude judges if they have a bias. Race is not a bias. Trump is race-baiting (again) and that claim that someone who is born American, whose heritage is Mexican, would be 'inherently' biased is pure baloney.

Then on Trump University itself. As Trump has faced several days of increasing scrutiny about Trump U, the smart play is to say, it was a mistake, I have run 300 companies, hired 100,000 people to work for me, that was 50 people in the Trump U project, there were a few bad apples, I am sorry, I will settle with those plaintiffs - and move on. The story would die. Instead - as Trump won't take political advice from sane people but rather plays his bluster and bullying games - he of course UPS THE ANTE and introduces his THREATS when he is cornered (this is such good prep for Hillary and the Democrats, to see how Trump reacts to any problems, they should be playing him like a piano by October) - so now Trump says - HE WILL RE-OPEN TRUMP UNIVERSITY once he is President.

So one, this keeps the story in the news. Two it ties Trump totally into the story, he can't escape it. Three, ie makes things worse, because now a clear mistake of the past - several lawsuits of 'FRAUD' - Mr Trump says yeah, he's gonna do that again, and soon. And of course it means the press have now EVERY reason to go dig deeper, find all the students who complained, get sad stories about people who were truly screwed - and always remind voters - oh, Trump thinks this is such a good scam, he wants to do it again. Note also - threatening to perpetuate a past fraud - should get the judges and district attorneys even more eager to bring all this to the public - and fast.

Then we have again fresh Trump ignorance - La Raza, yes there is a militant Hispanic political group who have been picketing Trump events etc. Sure. But that is not the same ATTORNEY's association which has the word 'La Raza' in it - because 'La Raza' the word is Spanish for 'race' and Trump thinks the Hispanic Attorneys' Association is somehow the same as a political group which has been attacking his rallies in California. Typical Trump ignorance which is dangerous. Its as stupid as Trump not knowing about the largest international event going on in Europe with USA's closest European ally, Britain. Brexit. Trump had no idea what that word means (the vote about the UK ie Britain, possibly exiting the European Union, on 23 June). He is a total ignoramus.

But dig dig dig, he keeps digging himself deeper into trouble. Trump University is probably the most damaging thing to his November electio of all accusations that have come up so far (but won't be the biggest by the time November actually happens, just the most damaging so far). And its a rare one where Trump COULD defuse it and make it go away, almost totally. Instead, Trump now makes the Trump University matter live FAR longer and loom large for the whole election season.

Then this racism about Hispanics. Again, it only solidifies the hostility against Trump (and all Republicans). It boosts Hispanic voter turnout (in all Southern states where many Republicans are now vulnerable - like Senator John McCain) this only aggrevates those voters and brings them out in even bigger numbers. (and California has the third-highest Hispanic proportion of the population of any state).

Meanwhile Hillary hit him on the foreign policy side. Obama is throwing bombs at Trump from the White House. Even Mitch McConnell who has endorsed Trump just said the attacks on fellow Republicans like Susana Martinez are foolish, etc etc etc. Trump continues being Trump and its like his house is on fire, instead of trying to put out the fires, Trump pours gasoline. Yes I am happy that he is this dumb. But I must point out, that this is dumb.

Lets see how many more days he wastes in California, and how the polling will shift even more to Hillary once Hillary has clinched her nomination on Tuesday. BTW if Trump says he wants to fight for California, and actively campaigns there for many days in a row - think what comes to Trump's highest priority fantasy state, his home state of New York? He'll probably do as much time in New York as he is doing in California. I do not have the total count of how much time Trump has so far wasted in California but lets say its 5 days of the last 162. Its already 3% just wasted of California. Even if Trump now quit the state as a hopeless cause, its pretty sure he'll also do 5 days in New York state - so at least 6% of his total time is already thrown away. But I am pretty sure Trump won't be 'hearing' the truth about California for a long while. He may waste another 10 days in the next two months, in California... yeah. Am smiling about this.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Millard Filmore

At the risk of turning this blog into All Trump All the Time ... Mr Trump has posted a rebuttal video that defends Trump University. Three people went before the camera to praise the educational experience, but oddly the three are not currently in the Get Rich Through Real Estate business.

The Wonkettes run a lefty blog that does a good job of making you giggle as they twist the knife.

http://wonkette.com/602519/not-at-all-scammy-video-defends-trump-university-which-was-definitely-not-a-scam

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