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« The Nokia Saga Predictions on This Blog: Full Listing with Links | Main | How is that 10 Dollar iPhone (clone) Prediction Coming, for 2020? Lets do an update »

May 30, 2016

Comments

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

So Trump goes on the attack. That means - obviously - that he has some serious faults to defend on the veterans issue. What do we KNOW. We know he only paid his own 1 million dollar promise on May 25, after one journalist hounded him for four months about it. FOUR MONTHS. And the total he bragged about for at least two months - that he had raised 6 million dollars, was now revealed to be only 5.6 million dollars. BUT, Trump was not just bragging about his 'six million' in mid April, on April 25 he was repeatedly asked about where is his money. He said it was all distributed. But at that time Trump HIMSELF had not given his OWN one million !!! And he would not do that for another month.

So from April 25, 2016, when he was repeatedly asked by various media, where is the money, how much was paid - Trump said for the next month 'I have raised 6 million for Veterans' while he had only raised at best 4.6 million and was trying to avoid giving his own promised 1 million. What a total sleazebag. This story will have legs and will be coming back. He bragged about 6 million when in reality it was 4.6 million and he tried to skip on his own promise - to veterans! - to pay a million out of his own pocket. A million to Trump - if he really is worth 10 Billion - would be what 5 dollars is to you and me. And yet Trump tries to screw veterans for that tiny amount - and for a MONTH after asked repeatedly about it, he tries to avoid paying it.

Cheapskate yes. Massive exaggerations yes. Penny-pincher yes. Sore loser yes. A liar, obviously. Con artist, yes. A perfect stereotype of the most obnoxious rich guy, certainly. Sleazebag. Totally.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Follow-up

I just did a search, CBS, ABC, CNN, Fox and other news sources on various dates February-March (each a separate incident, not two news sources reporting on the same instance) have Trump bragging about how he raised 6 million dollars (he did not, he finally only raised 5.6 million) and that he personally contributed 1 million dollars (no he did not in February, nor March, nor April - only on May 25, did Trump finally relent and write the check of 1 million dollars of his own money. After he was hounded for four months. But sleazebag Trump was BRAGGING about how he had 'personally contributed' one million already in February. What a horrible person. He BRAGS about HAVING CONTRIBUTED to VETERANS when he actually didn't - and then tried to STIFF THEM for four more months.

There is a very special place in hell for those who brag about supporting veterans and then do not. Trump this year cannot be nasty enough for you to punish you for the rotten person that you are.

Thank god for the journalists who chased the story, to finally 'hound' Trump into making that payment on May 25, 2016, when he bragged about HAVING PAID already in February. Thank god. I feel ashamed as a human being for Trump and how rude that is to veterans. Remember, Trump himself is a draft-dodger, who got four deferrments so he didn't have to go serve in Vietnam.

Yeah, I am disgusted - but good thing he was forced to pay that one million. I betcha it REALLY hurt, because obviously Trump is nowhere near as rich as he claims and he had most definitely decided he was never paying that promised amount.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

John Fro

With Hillary (and maybe Trump) very close to indictment, we might have a very chaotic election. Nothing of any great importance happens until Labor Day in US politics, but you don't waste time until then. It's all groundwork. The problem for both candidates is that they did the wrong groundwork. Hillary made assumptions about the Republican nominee that were totally wrong and Trump hasn't really done any groundwork. Trump won because of a well known phenomenon of how name recognition becomes increasingly important as the number of candidates rises. This is why Arnold Schwarzenegger won in CA and Jessie "The Body" Ventura won in Minnesota. Name recognition equals bedrock support. With Trump it's about 25% of registered Republicans. That's about 10-12% of registered voters. That's not unusual for a celebrity third party candidate, which is really what he is. Forget about minorities, the Republican party is losing white working class protestant voters--their mainstay since the 1960's. They've essentially split off to become a 21st Century Know Nothings resurrection. The problem is that within that movement their are the nativist Neocons who advocate a very muscular US foreign policy. So, it's become all mixed up as the mainstream Neocons are part of the stop Trump movement. This is like a five-way break-up of the Republican coalition: Trump Know Nothings, Neocon Know Nothings, Mainstream Neocons, Catholic Isolationists and Southern Baptist Evangelicals. The Democrats are split in two between the democratic socialists and the mainstream of the party. The irony is that Bernie Sanders is closer than anyone else to calling for a major political re-alignment, and has the numbers to back him up. You could say that he's building while the Republicans are tearing themselves apart. Hillary has no political agenda other than becoming president.

virgil

@Tomi - if it turns out that you are wrong, and the idiots are right to say Trump will win the election - will you publish a blogpost titled "I am an idiot" where you do your mea culpa for naming "idiots" people who foresaw this Trump vitory ? Come one, you are so sure, right? This can never happen. Just agree to the blogpost. Trump is definitely standing on a burning platform.

Winter

@virgil
"if it turns out that you are wrong, and the idiots are right to say Trump will win the election"

If Trump does win the election, Tomi, and everyone else here, have other worries than posting here. Finland is VERY close to Denmark, with the wind blowing from Denmark over the Baltic. And even Hongkong might feel unsafe.

Winter

The question is, does Hillary employ game theorists?

Donald Trump, game theorist
https://plus.maths.org/content/donald-trump-game-theorist

I suggest that much of what Donald Trump offers is ambiguity, which in part stems from his ignorance on policy issues. This stance is anything but a stupid strategy in deal-making. He combines it with confrontation, which works to draw out opponents on a battlefield on which Trump thinks he can win. The latter strategy is dangerous, however, if one is bluffing and the bluff is called.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hey virgil

You CLEARLY do not know me. Of COURSE I would do that. I DID that for example in the mid-terms of 2014. I ALWAYS come back to my predictions, most are reasonably close - I still point out where I was wrong on those - and EVERY time I point out any forecast where I was wrong.

You clearly do not know me or this blog. That is ALWAYS how I play it. And thats why this blog has had 6 million visits and a fiercely loyal readership. I have integrity. Yes, I will of course say I was a total idiot if Trump is elected - but watch out, virgil - I predicted EXACTLY how the 2016 Primary race would end - not just the Top 3 finishers in order but even their percentages almost perfectly - and I say Trump will lose by 20 points. Its not going to be close. I have no worry about having to come back on this prediction haha...

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Winter

People get smart on Trumps bullying tactics:

WATCH: Libertarian Gary Johnson taunts ‘racist’ Trump by blowing him a kiss
http://www.rawstory.com/2016/05/watch-libertarian-gary-johnson-taunts-racist-trump-by-blowing-him-a-kiss/

Winter

I think I could learn to like Johnson:

Libertarian Candidate Gary Johnson: Pardon Edward Snowden
http://www.newsmax.com/Newsmax-Tv/gary-johnson-edward-snowden-libertarian-pardon/2016/05/31/id/731617/

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

Seriously, guys... Trump is EVERTHING I said in that big Trump vs Hillary preview I gave you two months ago. He is EXACTLY that bad, as a candidate, that bad as a campaign, that bad in fund-raising, that bad in VP choice, surrogates, ground-game, data-mining etc.

..except Trump is EVEN WORSE than that. On EVERY aspect he is worse than what I wrote. I said Trump will lose by 20 points because he is the first candidate behind on ABSOLUTELY EVERY measure there exists. He will lose every demographic except white men. He will do significantly worse than Mitt Romney or John McCain. That was all before these past 3 weeks, when we found out how much WORSE the Trump 2016 candidacy is.

He is EVEN worse as a candidate than we thought. He is truly delusional yes, but he is mentally uncapable of taking in sound advice (such as from Manafort) and when he momentarily accepts a slight granule of that, his child-like mind will forget it within 24 hours and he's back to being Trump again. We all agreed Trump HAS to pivot, he cannot run his primary race into the general election - that is utterly un-electable. And we saw small signs that he is pivoting. Now, we have 3 weeks of evidence, no actually he is NOT pivoting, he is actually CONTINUING the primary race even when his rivals have conceded. This is sheer madness. Where the candidate HAS to unite his or her party, Trump is digging ever deeper divisions - feuding with Cruz & Kasich, feuding with Mitt Romney, feuding with John McCain, feuding with Susana Martinez etc etc etc and has not even managed to get Paul Ryan to join his cause. This man is LITERALLY WORSE than the one I profiled, when I calculated Trump will lose by 20 points.

Then the CAMPAIGN. Oh my gosh, is this far worse than anyone could have imagined. You guys remember, we debated and pondered, what is Trump's brilliant plan for the general election. Clearly he cannot be that dumb, that he had no plan (he was) and he has to have something brilliant coming after the primary season is over (he doesn't, there isn't). Now we learn that he will not fund a ground-game. He prefers to hand that part to the Republican party. This in the year when the party itself is essentially broke, and most fund-raisers are running away. The Republican party is EXCEPTIONALLY weak, unable to fully support Trump on the ground-game - where EVERY OTHER candidate always has supported the OTHER WAY, where the candidate had the funds and the big organization, to help the party because the party always was weaker.

Talking about weak, the money. Trump is 44 million dollars in debt. He now wants his fund-raisers to collect the cash to pay Trump back his loans. THEN he can start to fund his meager campaign. Hillary meanwhile is the richest campaign ever to exist who already has 25 million dollars in the bank. And she has the richest SuperPAC ready to start bombarding Trump next week with attack ads in battleground states. Trump still today has not even designated which of the competing SuperPACs is his official SuperPAC, so some of that little money which will come, will go to the 'wrong' group.

Then we have the STAFF. Trump never intended to run, so he never hired pro people, he had that idiot Lewandoski to run the nastiest primary campaign ever, but now Trump doesn't have the pro staff to run a general election campaign. The first person Manafort hired, was already fired by Trump. Nobody who is competent even wants to work for this train-wreck. Whatever Manafort can eventually hire, will be weak mediocre talent. Meanwhile Hillary has the best of the Clinton machine professionals, combined with the best of the Obama team. Arguably its the political 'dream team' of winning campaigns, ever.

And then the MAP. Again, Trump the lunatic wants to go fight for California and New York. When I did my Trump vs Hillary preview, of course I assumed Trump will behave like a sane rational politician and not throw his race away. For Trump to try to win California is as stupid as if Hillary went to try to win in Oklahoma. In no year will she win that race. And in no year, will Trump win California. That will not happen - but its THE most expensive state to run in. I love it, personally, that Trump is throwing his slim budget and time into that bottomless pit that is California for Republicans but haha, yeah, I did not COUNT on him being this dumb. Same for New York. Trump will never win New York but he is clearly trying to compete there.

EVERYTHING we have now learned about Trump says he is in a WORSE position, he is a WORSE candidate, he is running a WORSE campaign, he is not pivoting, he is digging his own grave even deeper, and thus, his loss will be WORSE not less, than I calculated. And here is my dilemma. I dare not say it will be worse than 20 points. But EVERY bone in my body says, it will be worse than 20 points. This is so horribly stupidly idiotically mad what he is doing, it is only hurting him.

Take Susana Martinez. She did not start this fight. This is a NEW fight, Trump picked with a Republican. She is not just a two-term sitting Governor, she is the CHAIR of the Republican Governors Association, one of the most senior leader positions in the party. Chris Christie used to hold that position. She gave one of the best speeches of the 2012 Republican Convention (the one for Mitt Romney best remembered for Clint Eastwood doing Empty Chair Monologues). She is BY FAR the most senior Latina woman in the Republican party and one of the most respected Hispanics of EITHER party. New Mexico, her state, is a battleground state. What possible gain can Trump have, from starting a feud with her? The Hispanics ALREADY dislike Trump at record-setting levels, his approval with Hispanics - before this madness - was at 80% disapproval level. He was already BEFORE this nonsense THE most despised politician by Hispanics EVER MEASURED. And now instead of trying to mend fences and make good with Hispanics, Trump VOLUNTARILY and with written notes - PLANNED an attack on Martinez, on several sentences of attacks while speaking in Albuquerque the Capital city of New Mexico.

Its truly as if Trump feels he has not damaged himself ENOUGH with Hispanics, and wants to do more damage. Now what about WOMEN? Trump has the worst gender gap ever measured by a front-runner. So he fights with Susana Martinez and in the same speech - also attacks Elizabeth Warren. Now, Warren is a Democrat, ok, so yeah, why not attack her. But how? Trump mocks her heritage by calling her Pocahontas. She is a genuine native American (Indian) of heritage, partially. Genuine native American Indian. For Trump to mock her about that - angers all native Americans - and is yet one more sign of his racism, that ALL minorities will immediately understand - blacks, Hispanics, Asians, gays, etc. WHY ? Trump could have attacked Warren for her positions on say being against bankers, but why attack her HERITAGE?

So now ANY woman sees, that Trump attacks Susana Martinez and Elizabeth Warren - neither on anything of merit - but on bogus attacks - which seem like SEXISM and bigotry. And bullying. The way women immediately sense if its a rude, arrogant, male boss, who can't handle a strong, smart, accomplished woman. This only hurts Trump again more with women. And Trump's behavior is as if he felt, he has not damaged his relations with women ENOUGH. He needs to do more. And minorities, also those... This is sheer madness.

If we look back at Romney 2012 or McCain 2008 in this same period, before the Convention, both were giving STRONG signs of their pivot to the center and lots of SMART moves about their upcoming general election race. Trump? No. He is making his matters worse. Every single thing we learned about Trump past 3 weeks reveals he is EVEN weaker (or dumber) than we thought.

Like the court case with Trump University. The SMART play, Trump KNEW he is wrong, is to settle - but make a condition of the settlement that all documents are sealed. Instead of that smart play - to prevent Trump U from becoming yet another disaster for him - he went to anger the judge. Now part of the documents are in the open - which really do expose Trump to be a genuine sleazebag. He is, as he is accused of, of being a fraud, a con-man. This again, shows bad judgement of Trump as a politician, he could have made this issue go away, instead he forces it into the general election now, giving MUCH more ammo for Hillary to open NEW areas to hit Trump that he has not been hit on, yet.

So yeah. My dilemma, can I possibly say his loss will be worse than 20 points. 18 points is Walter Mondale level against Reagan - and that was when Reagan was the SITTING President. But not in ONE area has Trump improved his sad position since March and in EVERY area we have learned about him - it is actually worse. Yes, I do think the loss will be greater than 20 points (or, Johnson or some other third party candidate will come in and then Trump could be at levels of 35% or worse while Hillary might not have 20 points on him - in a two-person race a 20 point lead means Trump gets 40%. If Trump is at 35% or less - thanks to a strong Third Party rival - he might not win ANY states)

Its not just that Trump is the worst candidate (and least prepared and least disciplined) running the worst campaign, the REALITY of Trump is even worse than we thought. So please please please do not despair. This will not be a contest. This will be a political massacre.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Winter

@Tomi
"So please please please do not despair. This will not be a contest. This will be a political massacre."

There is even another possibility. Trump is mentally unstable. In the end, he might not run at all.

That would truely break "new ground" for the USA.

Winter

And to back Tomi's analysis about how BAD Trump is at making alies:

The 224 People, Places and Things Donald Trump Has Insulted on Twitter: A Complete List
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/01/28/upshot/donald-trump-twitter-insults.html

Look for updates later.

Millard Filmore

@John Fro: I am not an expert about these things, nor do I have any special data sources, so I have to rely on others with more knowlege of the situation.

About Hillary's indictment: "former Massachusetts Gov. William Weld [...] Weld replied, "I'm speaking as a former director of the criminal division of the Justice Department. There's no criminal intent, and with no criminal intent there's no indictment."

http://crooksandliars.com/2016/05/libertarian-vp-candidate-blows-republicans


@Tomi: the Trump University situation is heating up, with New York state moving continuing their fraud case.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/ny-attorney-general-back-off-trump-fraud-case/story?id=39515501

cornelius

@Winter

Trump may drop even if he wasn't mentally unstable (which he is). Trump would not be able to stomach the idea of him losing the presidential race. When he's talking to himself he's telling himself that he's a winner. That's why, when he will realize that it is very likely that he will loose, he will find a ridiculous pretext and he will throw a temper tantrum and withdraw from the race.

Winter

Court Documents Reveal How Trump University Staffers Sold the Brand
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/court-documents-reveal-how-trump-university-staffers-sold-brand-n583611

Documents from both years advise salespeople to negotiate around the price — which could be as much as $34,995 for the "Gold Elite" package — while suggesting buyers without available means rely on credit cards or savings to fund the course.

oibur

It looks that Trump is still not over regarding vet donation

http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-36422611

Winter

If The Media Treated Trump Like Other Candidates, Yesterday Would Have Ended His Campaign
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-media_us_574f07c1e4b0ed593f12e5d0

If Cruz, Rubio, Sanders, or Clinton behaved like Trump, the news media would not stop for weeks declaring them unfit for the job of PotUS.

But Trump gets away with it.

Winter

NYC officials investigating use of Trump Tower for campaign events
http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/01/politics/buildings-department-investigating-trump-tower/

The New York City Department of Buildings confirmed Wednesday that it is investigating the use of the Trump Tower atrium for campaign events, which may violate an agreement Donald Trump made to keep parts the building open to the public when he built the landmark.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi cornelius

(great stuff everybody, but let me just take that one point)

cornelius - wow gosh yeah. THAT makes sense. Remember Ross Perot's campaign? He LED the polls against Bill Clinton and Daddy Bush (the sitting President) at one point. He was in the TV debates, he really had a chance to win it, in a three-way race (he ended up with 19% of the vote) BUT he had a disastrous campaign (his Vice Presidential choice even said in the TV debate, he didn't know why he was there..) but yeah. Ross Perot suddenly QUIT the race when he was very competitive, then later, like a month later, he returned and resumed his now doomed campaign.

Gosh yeah. That is the Trump exit strategy. He will find a ridiculous pretext to quit - and then he IS the only official Republican candidate, and he will simply declare, the game is rigged, he will not run - and he quits, in the middle of it. And we have seen how thin is his skin, he will take it personally on ANYTHING, and he could for example calculate that around early September, the situation is hopeless, he is behind in almost every state he would need to win - and he sees the first TV debate coming, where he knows he will be crushed - and suddenly he makes a stunt about something related to the debate. Something in it is 'unfair' and he won't participate - then when everybody gangs up on him being the coward - he says, the media is out to get him, and he quits the race.

Incidentally - while not ever releasing his tax returns haha.

Now Trump will be on the ballot in every state ANYWAY. It will be too late for the Republican party to replace him. BUT when Trump formally quits or 'suspends' his campaign, that is when the total Republican establishment will rush to embrace Johnson on the Libertarian party ticket. That will not make Johnson as competitive as Trump was, but might bring Johnson even to something near 30%. The hard-core Trumpistas will remain with him and vote for him but that could be down to 10% by election day as Trump will have been out of it for two months by then - and Hillary wins by 30 points over Johnson 60-30 (with 10 to Trump) in very rough terms. And total utter landslide crushing catastrophy for Republicans up and down the ticket.

Trump is going to lose the election, that is very clear. He may currently not have internalized it yet. Probably he hasn't. He doesn't listen to the professionals (and its the seriousness of those few pros around him, that may have caused Trump to fire that one guy already). So Lewandowski keeps feeding Trump the 'yes man lies' that the Billionaire wants to hear. Manafort maybe also noticed - he's been advising all sorts of despots around the world, real bad guys, and probably knows how to say 'yes, Sir' for a good paycheck - that its better to just let Trump live in his fantasy, for Manafort to pick up the big checks, and let Trump go down in flames. Manafort has a prime seat now to grow his power in the Republican party, as the 'only sane one' related to Trump haha, so he can't really lose in this game, however badly it will end.

And Trump? He reads the PUBLIC polling. So currently - delusional Trump is lulled into a false sense of security. He honestly now thinks, that yes, by running the 'counter-intuitive' but Trumpian campaign - of CONTINUING the primary contest of hate - he has tied Hillary. In polls now this week and early next week, he will continue to see that 'good news' of how well this strategy seems to be working.

Because Trump 'talks to himself' and doesn't trust experts - and knows the media is liars - he has no way of the truth reaching him, that the polls in these few weeks now show a distorted picture. Trump is LEARNING the wrong truth now. That is good (for his demise). Because after June 7, polls that report around June 11 or so, they will show the bump to Hillary and the race will go back to a 7 point race. What will Trump think? First thought - the polls are biased and wrong, and crooked. He will actively IGNORE the first signs, thinking they are inherently wrong and even that they have been published to damage him, Trump, personally.

But Trump will continue this, the primary-style campaign of hate - for a few more weeks - because Trump will refuse to accept the polls telling the truth. THEN, when Trump starts to think that something needs to be changed, he will look at NOW. He will look at the period from early June (not mid May) as the 'starting point' of where it went wrong. Something that he does NOW - will be what Trump will mistakenly think, THAT is what caused it. Note, that right now, regardless of the ongoing nonsense, Trump is ALSO doing his small steps of the pivot. And its most likely, that at the end of June, Trump studies early June, and decides one of his PIVOT moves was 'the mistake that caused the polls to collapse' - and Trump will go back to 'what worked' and be even more belligerent and rude.

Who knows, we are not his psychiatrists but as a total non-medical person and layman, just trying to imagine the obvious next few events that will happen, and judging by what bizarre reactions we've seen from Trump before - its a likely scenario that a) - Trump now thinks he is 'winning' and by continuing the primary style campaigning rather than a clear pivot to the middle. (Good! this is lunacy). Then b) he is likely to view early polling from the end of next week and beyond, to be 'wrong' and biased, and ignore those (while continuing the idiotic campaigning). And then c) he is likely eventually interpret the changed polling to reflect a reality - where he pinpoints incorrectly the TIMING of the polling 'collapse' to be something he is now doing or about to do in early June (good! This is critical mis-judgement). All this means, its HIGHLY likely that Trump will continue to make his journey worse into the Autumn campaign>

Then its the cornelius scenario that at some point, it hits Trump hard, he cannot ever win this. It was all a mirage (he'll never admit he ruined it for himself) and he needs an exit. A great excuse of why he has to quit because clearly the game was rigged against him and everybody is unfairly targeting him.

BTW it just hit me, take a vital timing element - Trump will want to have his 44 million dollar loan repayed. He won't quit before that is fully paid off. He may quit VERY soon after it has been. The window to me, most likely is just before the first TV debate. The more his growing professional advisors freak out about his bad and minimal debate prep (while reviewing debate tapes of the primaries and those of Hillary) - the more Trump will want to AVOID doing the 'homework' of hard work, of debate prep (remember he did very little of it in the primaries) and then at some point he will have a bad debate practise and he will decide, he has been paid back his loans, rather than go through the trouble of prepping for debate, he'll just cancel it. Oh, and cancel the whole race.

Thanks cornelius. That is the most likely way Trump's race ends. He will quit before November. I would say, the single most likely timing for his quitting is a few days before the first TV debate.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Millard Filmore

@Tomi: If Trump drops out the RWNJs will explode with conspiracy rants. The right wing crazies are already floating the idea. Bakker's opening theme is that martial law will prevent a Trump presidency. It will be easy morph that, dropping martial law, and go with a claim that Trump was forced to quit the race because of nefarious actions on the part of the evil liberals.

http://www.rightwingwatch.org/content/jim-bakker-anti-trump-forces-may-impose-martial-law-or-cancel-election

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