Just How Unprofessional IS the Trump Campaign - When Hillary In Trouble, Trump Hogs Limelight?

So we get to see some remarkable insights into the two campaigns. (obviously this is again a blog article about the US election, not about digital/mobile/tech). Hillary had her worst days this year, from the middle of last week when the Inspector General of the State Department found she had broken rules about emails and was at fault. For a pro campaign and very seasoned veteran politician, Hillary's campaign had a disastrous moment (every campaign has some of those) and it was clearly her worst moment of the year so far (don't fall for any of the Bernie 'moments' her victory was never in doubt so they were never that bad for her). And like a pro in a pro campaign, she went immediately onto the talk shows, put out as much of the fires as possible, then went to lay down low, riding out the rest of the news cycle. Her best hope is for other news stories to overtake this bad news email story, and that it won't grow to be any bigger than it now is.

TRUMP EPIC FAIL CAMPAIGN

The rival to her campaign should play this like a pro. If the opponent is in trouble, get out of the way. Get out of the news cycle. Don't give the news any possible story now, to compete with the big splash that your rival is in trouble. The smart play by Trump was to stay away from everything. Don't even allow interviews of YOU, let your surrogates handle the needling of Hillary about her emails. Stay away from the press, don't give them any chance to talk about anything relating to you. No, that is too much to ask of Trump. He had to jump in, with NEW silly stupid idiotic damaging stunts to a) draw attention away from Hillary's emails; b) bring up problems you've had in the past; c) bring up new problems for you; d) prepare the press to keep your problems in the spotlight into the near future as well.

Trump is massively behind Hillary. Before Trump clinched his nomination (the last time polls were reporting fairly the race) he was behind by close to 10 points. RCP had Trump behind by about 7 points. Then when Trump clinched (or more accurately, his rivals both conceded defeat) then every time that nominee gets a polling bump. It does not signal that the race has become suddely tight. Hillary will get the same bounce after June 7, when she has clinched. The real race is about a 7 point race which is more than what Obama beat Romney in 2012 and nearly what Obama beat McCain in 2008. Thats the reality right now, except some idiots are falling for the one-sided polling anomaly which happens EVERY election when one side clinches before the other. And it always returns to approximately the same it was, when the other side also clinches. So the reality is, that Trump is losing badly right now. It is FAR worse than the national poll, because in the in-state polling, Trump is behind in every state that Obama won in 2012 plus he is behind also in North Carolina (which Obama lost in 2012 but won in 2008) and he is behind in Arizona (which Obama lost both in 2008 and 2012). Trump is not ahead in the in-state polls of ANY state that voted for Obama in 2008. So Hillary is currently AHEAD of where Obama was in 2012 and by a VERY healthy lead indeed. What Trump needs to do, is to work hard - and CAPITALIZE on the rare occasions where Hillary's campaign is in trouble or making mistakes.

What was Trump doing last week? He wasn't done fighting with Republicans!!! He posted a silly video attacking his past rivals John Kasich and Ted Cruz. Why. What possible good does that serve Trump? It angers supporters of Cruz and Kasich - Republicans - who must be convinced to come vote for Trump. He HAS to stop attacking other Republicans. There is absolutely no way Trump can possibly convert 1-to-1 lost Republicans out of his tirades, to new Independent (or Democrat) voters, or somehow that 'silent majority' who isn't voting. He may attract SOME with this silly strategy but he is alienating many more. Its stupid. Plain and simple. Its stupid. But he wasn't done. Then he went and attacked New Mexico's sitting popular Republican Governor, Susana Martinez. Trump felt slighted that she would not come and join him at his rally. So now Trump not only starts a new feud with a sitting Governor of a battleground state, he is also upsetting all those demographics she represents - she is young, she is a woman, she is a Latina. This is sheer madness, why on earth would Trump go do this? He has to work now EVEN harder, to try to convince youth, women and Hispanic voters that no, he doesn't hate them all. By the way, the smart play - even if Trump was not actually considering her for his VP slot, would be to suggest she is the type of person he wants. But instead, Trump is fighting with her. A new fight, started by Trump, that was now on the air about the same time as the Hillary email news broke.

TRUMP STARTS NEW FIRES

So while the newsmedia SHOULD be devoting all their time on Hillary's troubles because they can't find Trump, he has gone into hiding, instead, Trump feeds them one story the more bizarre after the other. He goes to California (why on earth is he doing an event in California? California will never vote for a Republican, its a safely blue state. This is totally wasted effort). In California he holds a big rally - with farmers !! Why farmers? Farmers are about the most reliable 'employment' class for Republicans this side of wall street bankers. Farmers VERY steadily vote Republican and the only time you bother with courting the farming vote is the PRIMARIES when you need to win say a state like Iowa. Trump is behaving still as if it was the primaries. When there still was a race, and Cruz was fighting to try to win California, then it made still sense for Trump to schedule events there. Not now. Now he should be in Ohio, Virginia, Colorado or Florida. A battleground state, not in California. This is time he will never get back.

What did he do in Califronia. Well, he managed to create more problems for himself, both now and into the future. First, at this event, he made that stupid claim that there is no drought in California. Great way to get yourself in the media - for all the wrong reasons - again the press can have a field day quoting all the drought specialists who say yes, actually 75% of California is in a drought. The Drought has been going on for years. It is severe in more than half of the state. So next, Trump of course suggests that he can fix it, there is some little fish which is now the 'fault' of the water shortage (another debunked myth and conspiracy theory). And what of the farmers? If Trump suggests he as President can get the water to the farmers - that means taking water from neighboring states - Nevada, Utah, Oregon and Arizona. So 'pandering' to California farmers at their event will NEVER win Trump the state of California - BUT the Democrats in neighboring states can now use Trump as the danger, that if he is President, he will come and steal YOUR water, to give to his pals the California farmers. Is Arizona in play? Yes. Is Nevada a battleground state, of course it is. And polling from safely-red very consevative Utah - which NEVER votes for Democrats - says Hillary is tied in Utah. (Oregon is safely blue for Democrats anyway). So one stupid comment on a LOCAL issue where the US President has no say anyway - now does not help Trump in any way but it will be run in neighboring states against him and be used to force local Republican politicians to side against Trump (because nobody is going to suggest giving THEIR water to go to California's farmers, these would be local farmers in Nevada, Arizona, Utah etc who would then have to give up THEIR water). And this means, Hillary's nasty email story - a story which is well-worn and tired - is now competing with a Trump story about the weirdness - doesn't Trump KNOW what everybody else has known for YEARS that there is a massive drought in California, so bad Governor Jerry Brown had to take extreme means of water rationing statewide in response... This is an undisciplined campaign.

But while Trump was in California laying more mines into the minefield he has to later walk through - he also decided to pick a fight with a judge who is presiding over his Trump University case. Trump feels he can try to bully a judge by going public about his case. Good luck with that, schmuck. His attorneys had requested that various statements and documents about Trump University would be sealed, where some press had requested to see them. Now the judge (of course) ruled to unseal those documents. Maybe the judge would have decided so anyway. But first, by Trump making a public ruckus about it (and essentially threatening the judge) he of course made it very easy for the judge to rule against Trump. But secondly - far more damagingly - now the MEDIA are FAR MORE HUNGRY to study those documents. Trump not only drew attention to his Trump University lawsuit - while Hillary has her worst moment of this year - Trump ALSO guaranteed the Trump University 'sealed documents' will receive EXTRA scrutiny in the coming days. Trump knows this is all bad news, he has been trying to get the court case dismissed or postponed. Incidentally, Trump says regularly that the judge should recuse himself but Trump's attorneys have not made that motion in Court. So his LAWYERS know its not a valid case - but the more Trump pushes this point in the media, the more he angers the judge. Thats totally the wrong move. But Trump is not guided by a professional campaign manager (in charge) and whatever Manafort manages to do, is peripheral at best (and apparently there is a big internal war going on between Manafort and Lewandowski). So maybe California was an isolated case?

Sunday. Trump is in Washington DC (oh, yes, that famous 'battleground state' which votes 90% Democratic. THE single MOST DEMOCRATIC voting region in the nation. For Mr Outsider the dumbest thing to do, is to hold a campaign rally in DC. But hey, who am I to advise the Trumpster. So what was this about? He held a huge event at the State Department with a bunch of email specialists perhaps? No. Its a biker event (Harley Davidson type bikers) for veterans. Now. Bikers. White MEN very very racist, often Nazis, who will vote for Trump no matter what happens. These are in terms of activity/hobby probably the single most dedicated Trump supporters, even more so than the gun lobby. Why on earth is Trump at a biker rally? Oh, its probably that same clown political advisor he took in, who used to work on Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker's campaign. Walker had an unhealthy obsession with Harley Davidson motorbikes. Ok, we get the connection. Except this is the GENERAL election now. You have WON the Harley rider vote, MONTHS ago. That is the LAST place you should be wasting you time campaigning, at a Biker rally, in Washington DC. But its biker-veterans. So first, this of COURSE brings up the bad press about Trump and veterans in this election cycle. So now there is PLENTY of reason to revisit what stupid stuff Trump said about John McCain. Then there is MORE reason to dig into the missing million dollars that Trump promised he'd pay out of his own pocket to veterans. And the gossip about how much he overpromised and underdelivered with his publicity stunt veterans event earlier this year. All this eats time away from the bad news coverage of Hillary's email problems. Meanwhile, did Trump now put this issue to rest. No. He said that on TUESDAY he will release the list of what veterans groups received the millions he has raised. On Tuesday? So the story will linger on for three days now, and run into four at the least, before this story is extinguished from the news cycle. Trump has jumped upon the worst news story his rival has had, and piled one Trump negative story after another, all the while setting up even MORE negative coverage - not of Hlilary - but more bad stuff about Trump in the coming days. How mad is this.

Oh, and on veterans? His supporter Bob Dole now has said, Dole agrees with McCain, Trump should apologize to the veterans. And Lewandowski is on record now saying, Trump won't apologize. Will the media love now digging into this, what will Dole say about that, what will McCain say, and how will Trump react himself. This is an incredibly undisciplined and unfocused campaign, abandoning blatantly obvious opportunities as they (rarely) come.

On Tuesday of next week, Hillary will clinch her nomination (she's only 94 delegates shy of the nomination and June 7 awards nearly 700. She only needs to win about 15% of the delegates to clinch. She is ahead in most polling in most of the states that vote that day). This week is literally the last week when Hillary is this vulnerable - when Bernie is still in the race and thus Trump's attacks would have maximum effect. Yet in the 12 days left between the day the e-mail story broke, Trump has wasted - no, not wasted, destroyed - the news cycle for 4 days and has set the newsmedia ready to put plenty more of Trump BAD news into the remaining days. This is totally bizarre in terms of campaigning. Any professional campaign manager would have advised Trump to behave to the best interest of WINNING in November. But Trump doesn't listen to experts, because Trump likes to talk to himself instead, as he said. And once again, we see he not only hurt himself with these steps, he also did not do what he NEEDS to do (fight in battleground states where he is BEHIND) and he also gave Hillary much-needed cover so the email story won't get much attention.

At some point between now and November, Trump will accept a profesional campaign manager's 'full control' of his message and campaign appearance schedule. That is not yet what Manafort has now. Clearly. It is madness to waste one day of Trump in California, and another day in DC, those states will NEVER vote for him. Its madness to speak at events for farmers and bikers - they will always vote for him. Its utter madness to pick a fight with the judge who can decide to make the Trump University scandal court papers public; and its madness to draw attention to his troubles with veterans. Hillary's team must be thanking the stars for Trump. How much Trump has taken the pain off their worst day of the year and demolished that story from the news cycle.

When Trump starts to behave rationally, he can do a lot better than he is doing now, but so much damage is done already, he can never recover to even footing with Hillary, not even close. But now, he is only making the November loss worse for himself. There are only 161 days left to Election Day. Trump has actually wasted 2 of those days not doing what he HAS to do, campaign in the battleground states (did I mention, Trump is BEHIND in all of the states that Obama won in 2016, Trump cannot win unless he flips half a dozen of those states in 2016). 2 days wasted means one percent of his remaining time was thrown away. That will never come back. No professional campaign manager lets a candidate do this level of damage to himself.

Meanwhile on the other side of the fence. If you're in trouble, who can you call? Ghostbusters? Wouldn't it be nice, if you are in trouble, that you could just call your buddy, the current President of the USA, who happens to be on an international trip - and ask HIM to jump into the story and help deflect the bad news away from you, by attacking your opponent. Yeah. I betcha that was coordinated, the Obama attack from Japan that hit Trump saying that international leaders are 'Rattled' by Trump. Did you see the timing? US sitting Presidents almost never talk domestic politics while abroad. Obama however, can't WAIT to get to campaigning with Hillary against Trump. And he has of course waited, patiently, letting the Hillary campaign decide how to utilize the largest bully pulpit on the planet. Now when Hillary asked (or perhaps Obama sensed it and offered) this was perfect timing to bring Obama into the story, to take some of the heat away from Hillary. Smart play by team Democrats, whoever actually initiated that idea.

Obama will be a formidable surrogate for Hillary, likely more powerful than husband Bill. And he will love doing it, spending most of his energy attacking Trump and the sitting Republicans of Congress. Trump's response? Why didn't Obama accuse his Japanese hosts about the attack on Pearl Harbor. Yeah, thats REALLY smart diplomacy again, Mr 'I talk to myself'. Japan killed 2,400 Americans on the attack on Pearl Harbor (mostly military but also plenty civilians). The USA killed 140,000 in the atomic bomb attack on Hiroshima (all civilians). I think this is quite the wrong time for the US President to mention Pearl Harbor but obviously Mr 'I know great words' would do a fabulous job in international diplomacy haha. Its exactly moronic statements like that, which has those foreign leaders 'rattled' by Trump.

BAD CANDIDATE

So yeah. Trump is a remarkably flawed human being. Fine. We have however, learned again new stuff about him. Clearly, Trump is not listening to Manafort at least fully. But Politico now reported that the in-fighting in the Trump campaign has revealed that Trump is the kind of boss whose mind goes by whoever talked to him last. Like a child. So that bodes well for his run haha. Any advice he gets, is forgotten the moment he meets the next advisor or campaign staffer or friend or colleague or just random supporter at a farmer event or biker rally. This is why Lewandowski has gotten back into favor. Manafort was trying to run a campaign - that means a TON of management work which does not involve - and should not involve - the candidate. But Lewandowski was relegated to be the 'front man' on events - meaning he is sitting in the limo and at the hotel and on the jet with Trump every day. And Lewandowski thus gets in that vital last word. Which would be good news for Trump if Lewandowski was even marginally proficient as a national campaign manager for the general election except clearly he is not. So we have issues like Trump firing the first person that Manafort hired (a pro). Where Trump's team is MASSIVELY understaffed AND with vacancies galore - the last thing they need is to REHIRE more of people that are now being fired !! Plus it makes it EVEN harder for Manafort to get ANY competent professionals to sign up - Trump may well embarrass those too, and fire them two weeks after Manafort has hired them.. Oh, and press relations. The Trump campaign still doesn't have anyone as Press Secretary. Nobody is managing his press or media. That buffoon Hope Hicks is clowning around on various TV shows as his 'spokesperson' while the vital job of press secretary is still not even filled.

A 'normal' Presidential campaign will have something in very rough terms of one quarter of a million man-days of campaign work that will be done in the approximately one year that the campaign exists. Its a LOT of work. Trump's team has done perhaps one tenth of what should have been done up to now, and needs to be at full staffing to do MOST of what needs to be done in the remaining time. Trump will most definitely fall short of what is considered a normal major campaign run, by something like 20% at least, maybe even more. Meanwhile Hillary's campaign has already worked more man-days than ANY campaign in history (and not because Bernie gave her any real resistance, most of her campaign effort has been aimed at November). But conservatively estimating, the Hillary 2016 campaign will probably complete half a million man-days of campaign work. Her campaign will outwork Trump's by a factor of about 3. Who wins? If the race were truly tied, and one side puts in 3 times more work - then that side most definitely wins. Except the race is NOT tied, not even close. Hillary is far ahead, and yet, her team is putting in MASSIVE amounts of more work than Trump's side is. And we are seeing the effects. She is ahead in EVERY single state that Obama won in 2012 plus two that Obama lost (and very close to tied in half a dozen more states - including very very VERY reliably Republican states like Utah and Mississippi). 

So then we learn about Trump's delusion. He wants to run in New York. Now, its fully understandable, that for a man with Trump's ego, he wants to win his home state. He put a lot of effort to win the primary for New York (even though he was safely ahead in all polling). But New York is a safe Democratic state. It voted for Obama by 28 points in 2012, by 26 points in 2008 and even in 2004 where John Kerry lost to sitting President W Bush, New York voted for the Democrat by 18 points. There is NO hope for a Republican to win in New York state. It is the fourth most blue state in the union. There is no chance, zero, zip, zilch, none for ANY generic Republican to win New York. Being a New Yorker does not help Trump because so too is Hillary Clinton except she was their Senator winning twice, while Trump is disliked even in his home state. The Republican voter base is in rural New York state, ie 'upstate' where Hillary was their Senator, and they dislike Manattan-dwellers and big city folk (like Trump). New York state is one of the most diverse states in the union, only 71% was white voters last time (this is bad for Trump) with both a high black and high Hispanic minority. He can't win that state. The Real Clear Polling average for New York state head-to-head has Hillary up by 22 points. This is an utterly hopeless mission. But Trump wants to hire staff to fight for New York. Yes, go ahead Mr 'I am so smart, I went to Wharton'. He is behind in EVERY actual battleground state, and his campaign is massively understaffed with open vacancies not filled. But Trump knows better, he wants to waste hiring and staffing and funding and campaigning - to try to win in New York. Lovely. I can't wait to see how long that lasts and how much of his total effort went into that bottomless pit. New York state is one of the most expensive states to run in, haha, go ahead. Will be a delight to see all that effort wasted.

A billionaire tends to hear what he wants to hear (he fires those who say things he doesn't want to hear). So if Trump says - I want to fight for New York, he probably will get that, no matter how much his whole campaign staff will be aghast. So if its a dozen states, and some of them are not that expensive to run in - New Hamspshire, Iowa, Wisconsin - if the Trump campaign puts a real effort into New York state, it would deplete at least 10% of their total resources (on a total waste on a race he cannot literally cannot win). Lets see if someone can talk sense into the man who is so smart or will he talk to himself instead. But again consider the rest of the party - they see a total utter comprehensive train-wreck of a campaign and a candidate who is utterly out of control. The sensible thing is to run away as fast as you can - and like Susana Martinez - refuse to be seen with this doofus. Now what about all those politicians who are in TROUBLE in those battleground states - but who HAVE endorsed Trump? If Trump spends 10% of his time and money and polling etc in New York, thats AGAIN less of what in any case was a weak campaign in terms of support - to the vulnerable down-ticket candidates feeling the pull of the anchor that is Trump, weighing them down and drowning them.

Bur I want to come back to that idea of deciding based on what the last person was who talked to you. That is a HORRIBLY bad manager indeed. I had one boss like that and it will drive you nuts. There will be many who will be resigning because Trump is so utterly disastrous as the Candidate, where he promises you in YOUR meeting to do it your way and then he talks to the limo driver or the usher at the event next, and decides to go opposite of what he just promised you. So it means the top guys HAVE to hang around Trump all the time - it means THEIR work is FAR less effective - this from a team that did none of its homework in the Primary season - and is behind - and has not hired all the staff it needs - and is short-staffed and underfunded for the general campaign - with almost no usable surrogates to take much of that load EITHER. Meanwhile on the opposite side is the most prepared candidate in history, who over-prepared in the primary season, has the largest staff ever assembled, plus a super-powerful Big Data system to optimize and maximize their effort - run by some of the best staff ever in political campaigns - while being the richest campaign ever to run with funds to spare - and with the strongest surrogate team in the history of Presidential politics.

The morale at the Trump campaign is bad. It will keep getting worse. They can't hire the best staff who won't join the losing effort. Some who are there will bicker and complain. Trump will be firing many more, often for trivial reasons - or in cases where all in the Campaign see the fired person was right and Trump was wrong - this further saps morale. That is all before the REAL polling disaster becomes evident, after the Conventions, into August. Hillary will be safely in a 10 point lead by then, and that means the rats start to escape the sinking ship.

Then a few words about campaign budget and financing. So yeah, now the myth of Trump self-funding is long gone. He spent months telling that candidates who take money are then beholden to those who contributed, but now Trump will take in something nearing a Billion dollars in money - with all the strings that come attached to those donations. So far, so bad. But it gets worse. He has not much time left, why is the SuperPAC still a mess? His various surrogates are promoting two rival SuperPACs and Trump hasn't clarified which it is that his supporters should donate to. This was all done very fast and not with much sensible planning. (Once they exist, the campaign is not allowed to 'coordinate' with its SuperPAC but thats a very nebulous rule). But on Trump's main campaign funding. He's decided he won't build a ground operation of his own - he will rely on the Republican party to do that for him. Sounds nice. Why didn't every previous candidate do that? Because it means Trump will not be in control. And that Republican party machine has to support ALL the candidates in that state, from Governor to dog-catcher. They CERTAINLY do not have the budget to do a proper job of it for the Presidential candidate and his/her needs - that is why EVERY past campaign, the Presidential candidate set up his/her own organization (in the battleground states obviously).

But now comes the added mess of Trump. Many local politicians do not WANT to be seen anywhere near Trump. While Hillary will be loved by all Democrats, who will HAPPILY re-organize their calendars to be NEAR her when she is in town, with Trump, the GOP party organization in that state has to be mindful of every individual candidate who doesn't want to be seen with Trump, and try that extra layer of hassle in organizing events and press etc. What about local fliers, advertising, lawn signs, robocalls, etc. The local party is now saddled with MORE work (because Trump won't be bothered) which takes away from their own guys that they KNOW - who often will hate that Trump can't be bothered to pay his own way and hire his own staff - and where will those loyalties go - to try to save the own guy rather than fight for Trump - which will only get worse, the more Trump will be under water in the head-to-head polling against Hillary. This is a very very VERY bad way to go about the campaign, and I am expecting Manafort to eventually convince Trump that they have to set up their own staffing in at least the most important battleground states like Florida, Ohio, Virginia and Colorado. They will NOT get 100% out of a shared resource with the party. Thats just dumb. Usually its the OTHER way, where the locals hope for more help from the 'rich' Presidential campaign, to pick up some of the extra effort for THEIR local guys, not this way.

LIBERTARIAN MESS

So then we get the last unexpected bonus and silver lining on the thundercloud for Hillary's team, the Libertarian surprise. Its not that much a silver lining as gold-pressed latinum. This may turn out a mirage, but this might be the year of the Libertarians hitting major percentages, into high single digits or even double digits in the general election in November. THAT is more than gold. That is more than platinum for Hillary. In her worst week this year, she may have received the best present at its end. This week which otherwise was so bad for her. Gary Johnson, the ex Governor of New Mexico, was just selected as the candidate of the Libertarian party. He is a Republican. His Vice Presidential running mate is another Republican former Governor, William Weld who ran the very Democratic state of Massachussetts. And these two have already been very vocal critics of Trump. In some polling of a three-way race, Johnson polls at around 10% already - while nobody knows him in any way. Now they will be in the news at least for a short while, and many who are very conservative and or very Republican voters, but who really don't like Trump for whatever reasons, and can't stomach the idea of voting for a Clinton, will have two solid but moderate Republicans - both ex Governors - to vote for. The Libertarian party is the only other ticket which has access to all states, so every voter will get a choice of Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump or Gary Johnson (while each state will have usually a dozen or so also lesser 'third party' candidates, but none that are on the ballot in every state). If Johnson can get his polling to 15% - a distinct possibility - he'd also get to join the TV debates.

Most years a third-party candidate has no chance, and this year too, Johnson won't be winning the election. But recently Ross Perot in 1992 did get 19% of the vote, and at one point in the race he was ahead of both rivals. Bill Clinton eventually won in 1992, with 43%, over incumbent sitting President Daddy Bush who got 37% of the vote. Many Republicans feel that Perot 'spoiled' their race and Daddy Bush would have won if Perot was not in it. The exit polls however very clearly show that Perot took votes from both sides and Bill Clinton would have won in any case. Then in year 2000, Ralph Nader ran on the Green Party ticket, and while he only got 3% of the vote, it did damage Al Gore enough, that (after a recount and Supreme Court intervention) W Bush was declared the winner. Even a few points of the total election might swing it one way or the other.

Libertarians can find some appeal with both Republican and Democratic voters but they generally are far more aligned with Republicans. There is a rather well defined Libertarian wing to the Republican party (which used to vote for Texas Congressman Ron Paul and now supported, but perhaps only in a lukewarm way, his son Rand Paul). I would think, in very rough terms, about 75% of Gary Johnson's votes would be drained from Trump and 25% from Hillary. Give those +/- 5% either way and its always a net damage to Trump now that Johnson definitely will be on the ballot in November. But now the game becomes, how much of the 'stop Trump' movement and 'never Trump' movement which may be left, inside the Republicans, will shift to supporting Johnson and Weld. I'd guess Mitt Romney will be there rather quickly and so probably will be the Bushes.

Because they are both Republicans, Johnson and Weld provide the 'cover' for conservatives to fairly vote 'against' Trump but not actually vote for Hillary to win. In reality, any vote by a Republican to the Libertarian ticket will be effectively a vote helping Hillary defeat Trump (and similarly any Bernie supporters who will end up voting for the Libertarian - or any other ticket like Green party - will be voting to support Trump against Hillary). The Libertarian ticket has zero chance of winning this year, Johnson is about as exciting as a candidate as George Pataki, but he can well get into the double digits in his support. And because they know their core voters will be disgruntled Republicans, the pair, Johnson and Weld, are very well motivated to attack Trump at every chance they get. Meanwhile, for all those Trump-haters who really want Trump to fail comprehensively (the Wall Street Journal just ran an editorial where they argued Trump NEEDS to fail in epic manner so the party learns not to nominate candidates that are this bad - the point I've made for months) they are likely to announce their support of the Johnson-Weld ticket in 'timely' manner, not necessarily coordinated, but to give a general impression of a growing wave, so some will deliberately wait for an opportune moment WHEN to announce, to keep up that feeling of momentum.

Trump is behind. What he absolutely cannot sustain, is for erosion more from his side than Hillary's side. A perfect third party candidate in this year, for Trump, would have been Bernie. The worst possible candidate to run, this year, for Trump, is another Republican. We have to see how this plays out, but this Libertarian ticket may well be the worst news to hit the Trump campaign this whole season up to now. But we don't yet know. Lets see a few weeks of does this story pick up steam, does this story have 'legs' or will it fizzle out in the next few weeks and be dead by the Conventions. I do think, that with all the feuding and trouble that Trump has gotten himself into, for all those who actually do not WANT to be on Trump's VP list, all those politicians will likely want to now go with the 'sane' Republican alternative - ie the Libertarian ticket (as long as that ticket fits their political views - Libertarians are totally against the bedroom police and bathroom police aspects of the Religious Right, so I don't expect Ted Cruz to really like this option but John Kasich should find this ticket far more palatable than supporting Trump).

Then there is the money. The Bush clan has tons of financial clout. If they come in support of the Libertarian ticket, that could give them some significant money. Then there is the Koch brothers network. One of the Koch brothers once ran for VP on the Libertarian ticket, and they have been very warm to Libertarian views in the past. They hate Trump, here they have two moderate Republicans, why not go support them. Its plausible that this ticket really takes off, and gets Johnson to something around 20% or even 25% of the final election in November, and as they'll be a professionally run campaign without the sillyness of Trump, if they run roughly neck-to-neck in total national vote percent, say both get 22% (with Hillary winning in epic landslide at 56%) then its VERY likely that Johnson wins more STATES than Trump while they'd have as many votes. Trump's base is very loyal but widely spread. The Johnson-Weld ticket could focus and pick up a bunch of red states where they could slightly outperform the 'generic' Trump effort - while Trump would have to fight (and badly lose) in the battleground states (where Johnson would not attempt to win).

If the Libertarian ticket is strong enough to qualify for TV debates ie Johnson polls at above 15% by September, then Trump will be fighting a two-front war where he is the underdog, utterly outgunned on both fronts. And where normally the in-party fighting ends at the Convention - this would be that weird year, where the Republican and Conservative 'Stop Trump' movement could actually run until November, uttely totally completely destroying any chances he might have otherwise had. Even if in November Johnson only takes 10% of the national vote (halfway between Ralph Nader of year 2000 and Ross Perot of 1992) then Trump is down another 5 points against Hillary. If Johnson could get to Ross Perot levels - and assuming they continue to mainly attack Trump from the right, appealing to conservatives and in mostly the red states - then at Johnson on a national 20% vote level (with Trump say 25%) its possible Trump wins NO STATES and Johnson wins a handful (Kansas, Oklahoma, Idaho) and Hillary wins over 40 states flipping such 'red' states as Texas, Mississippi, Utah..

We don't know yet. But this is a development that could be utterly devastating to Trump 2016. If they play this right, the Johnson-Weld ticket could be the 'real conservative, real Republican' ticket and the 'adult' and 'rational' choice against Hillary. They could even plausibly win more votes than Trump. But if they get as much as 10% of the vote, then Trump is LUCKY if he escapes with a 20 point loss to Hillary. If these guys climb above 10% in November, it pushes Hillary's victory into truly 'catastrophic' drubbing of more than 20 point loss to Trump. 
 
This is yet another aspect I did not see coming in this truly amazing year, and once again, the stars are aligning even more perfectly for Hillary. A strong third-party run also means higher turnout - that is always to the Democrats' advantage and the disadvantage of Republicans. This means even more trouble for down-ticket candidates. And those will then be making their various choices of who is going to campaign with Trump or who will go join the rebel alliance of Johnson-Weld. Meanwhile the Democrats will be united like never before, safely ignoring the Libertarians and focusing like a laser on Trump. Its fear of Trump which will drive up Democratic voter turnout. And remember, its not enough for Hillary to win, she has to flip both the Senate and the House to have any chance to enact her political agenda. She needs to have huge coat-tails, to bring in that huge change in Congress.

Comments

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Lets go to the comments

Winter... on 'Denmark' and Finland (and Hong Kong). Yeah. It IS plausible that Trump becomes President. The biggest chance is that Hillary has a heart attack or dies of natural causes (or assassination) in the Autumn. Even then its not certain but yes, plenty of very unlikely scenarios are out there - Hillary COULD be indicted and actually convicted and then lose the election and/or be in prison etc.

If Trump were to become President, we've seen how unpredictable he is and how thin-skinned. Also how ignorant he is of how the world works, and what the Presidency involves and what the US military is and can do (and cannot do). Meanwhile over in Grand Putinistan, Czar Vladimir the Great is a genuine megalomaniacical world domination GENIUS who REALLY knows how the world works - and who is ruthless to use every trick he can think of, to his advantage. He would play Trump like a violin. By inviting Trump over - giving him the 'Order of Lenin' and naming some irrelevant city in Siberia after Trump - he would get Trump to be all eager to be Putin's friend. Then Putin would do his nasty tricks while Trump tried to figure out what is happening. So imagine an invasion of Poland, splitting Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania apart from the rest of NATO, then invading Finland.. All while Trump sucks his thumb and tries to deal with an angry press and a furious military where one four-star-General after the next resigns in protest.

Then at some point comes the inevitable Trump OVER-reaction. Now he goes and launches a nuke-tipped Tomahawk cruise missile at some town recently taken over by the Russian military. And now we are on the brink of nuclear war, where Putin has no qualms about going full out - the Russian army regularly TRAINS for nuke war mission - and meanwhile Trump likes to threaten and bully, but almost always is then forced to back down and compromise. End result - break up NATO, hopefully with no more cities glowing of nuclear radiation but quite possibly several indeed doing that. What would be the kind of retaliation that Putin could push Trump where the US would butt out of Europe? Say a nuke retaliation taking out Diego Garcia island - including a US carrier task force stationed there and its massive military base. Putin says the next bomb will be in Pittsburgh unless Trump takes US troops out of Europe. Trump cannot threaten Putin by wiping out Smolensk because Putin is not a properly elected ruler who could be voted out of office - Putin would say - go ahead, if you bomb Smolensk, I then take out New York City. Trump could not go into that game without being impeached. BUT Putin would get what he wants, a broken NATO - after which Putin can snatch all of non-Nuclear Europe piece-meal. So a rump-Europe would then remain behind the nuclear shields of France and Britain. All the rest would belong to Czar Vladimir the Great.

Now Hillary. Will be the exact opposite. The TINIEST attempt by Putin to play her, is what she has been waiting for - she wants to prove she is as tough as steel, as was Indira Ghandi or Golda Meir or Margaret Thatcher. Whoever is the first fool international leader to test Hillary, will get her MEASURED but POWERFUL immediate - long planned, perfectly executed MASSIVE reaction. To tell the world, Hillary is no Obama. She is the new Iron Lady. Don't mess with Amurickah.

But yeah.. truly frightening mind-games to imagine, if Trump the child was really in command. Bush the Lesser was a near-child and a horribly bad President. But he'd now seem like a wise old man, compared to Trump. Luckily in ANY likely scenario, Trump will not win the White House (and if he did become President, he'd be impeached and in the various congressional hearings in the aftermath, he'd be found to have run a ridiculous amount of government scams to try to steal as much money as conceivable while in office).

Then on game theory. Trump is definitely using his 'standard' tactics he wrote about in the Art of the Deal. He starts with outrageously extreme opening gambits - knowing that is beyond reasonable, to help get him what he actually wants. He also has clearly been playing the unpredictability card, and separate from the game theory article you linked to, we've discussed several times about the OODA loop. Trump moves faster than his rivals to keep them off their game.

All of this works BEST if it is not known to the other side. I've been to those negotiations MANY times where we KNEW the other side was into power negotiating, and then all the tricks are literally useless. We were not intimidated, we had our position in mind, this is our last negotiating position, after which we walk - sometimes those resulted in us getting what we wanted (or more) and other times we walked. But the intimidation never worked - because we also knew that gambit and what was being played. Trump's wild negotiation gambits - and game theory in areas like 'chicken' - they can backfire. Why it all worked so well in the past 11 months was because the Republican rivals were totally taken by surprise. It might have been so for Hillary too - we will never know - if she had been the first to experience this from Trump. But as Trump showed his whole style for 11 months out in the open - including such things as massively signalling that he will boycott the debate with Megyn Kelly - it was not that much a surprise - and by now for Hillary in the Autumn - most of this 'normal Trump' is essentially as easy as reading his book.

What I would do - and hopefully the Hillary team or her SuperPAC will do - is to show how BAD Trump is at this. How CONSISTENTLY his bullying tactics BACKFIRE and he doesn't get what he demanded. And how often he has to back down and look like a fool. Take the demand that Fox remove Megyn Kelly from the debates. How many times Trump demanded it. Then he finally boycotted the debate because of it. And did it work? No, he not only did not get Megyn off the debate, Trump lost Iowa because of this stupid gambit. And Megyn was there for the next debate they had. It was a 100% failure on Trump's stupid gambit. If this argument is made - some who are undecided about Trump but who admire his 'strength' and how he is 'a winner' will see, no actually, this is dumb and stupid and mostly this method brings failure. It would be supremely stupid to let this same method be brought into the White House.

Now on the NUANCE of game theory. I don't think Trump is that nuanced to do it well. He only knows the bully method - then he threatens to sue you next. Look at HIS ATTORNEYS. What Trump says, compared to what his attorneys say. Like the 'recusing' demand by Trump of the California 'Mexican' judge on the Trump University case. Trump has been demanding in public that the judge recuse himself. Yet his attorneys have (wisely) never made that motion in court. What Trump does - ONLY - is to worsen the reaction by the judge, this will never help - but his attorneys know. Trump is not smart enough to understand nuance. He only believes in brute force and threats. Like one of Tony Soprano's least intelligent goons. So if it were to be a use of game theory, I think Hillary's team would run circles around Trump on that side. But they don't NEED to. Because of.. Big Data.

The game theory use, requires the gamer to make educated guesses of what will happen on that gamer's next gambit. Some are better at this and some are worse (Trump). But Hillary doesn't NEED to guess. She has the Big Data machine which KNOWS what is the best play. She runs 10,000 interviews EVERY DAY in EVERY BATTLEGROUND STATE on every conceivable issue to determine which is the MOST DEVASTATING way to hit Trump, for lasting effect, now. What is an attack best to wait, what is an attack that best works now. What works best in Ohio, what works better in Virginia, what is the best for Florida, etc.

This is like taking a super computer to Las Vegas. Yes, there still is an element of chance in every game, but if you have actually counted all the cards already played in the game of Blackjack, and then count the odds of what remain, and can do that consistently for every hand, and only bet when your chances are FAR better than 50/50 - you beat the house. Which is why they monitor every gamer and every table, to spot those who cheat, who have some tech or gadgets or partners or whatever, to cheat the system. At the moment, as long as Trump doesn't build rapidly a Big Data system, he is INHERENTLY weaker in every gaming decision. Trump might BY LUCK accidentially hit on the right play, occasionally - in ONE state, on one issue. Hillary hits the right play in EVERY state on EVERY issue EVERY time - because each of those scenarios has already been TESTED against ACTUAL VOTERS on the largest panel ever measured in politics of any nation.

Its like having a swordfight where one guy has to wear a blindfold - he literally cannot see anything - and the other guy sees perfectly. The blind guy CANNOT win.

(ok more comments coming)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi Winter

Then on Johnson. Yeah, haha, he will be an interesting play against Trump. The sad thing is, that he is not a strong CANDIDATE as such. He's really about as exciting as George Pataki. So I am afraid that he will be severely diminished simply because he is so boring (plus obviously a total fringe candidacy on a shoestring budget etc where Trump hogs all the media attention and Hillary gets what is available of the rest).

But yeah on pardoning Snowden - that is very much a Libertarian view - also some in the Obama administration have been hinting at it, but Obama himself just came out a few days ago saying no, Snowden is a criminal. I do think Obama will pardon Snowden but after the election is over, so sometime in late November or maybe December. But this illustrates again how the Libertarians will find some common cause with the Democrats and against a mainstream Republican viewpoint. I'd love for the Libertarians to gain a 10% or bigger share of the House and have a couple of Senators eventually too. Would make the USA a bit more rational and sensible, where it would not be so totally bipolar.

Now if the Libertarians really understand their opportunity, they should find one or two strong candidates to run against a vulnerable Republican in red states where a strong-ish Democrat is also in that race. Don't try to win 50 seats. Try to win 20. But use the Johnson ticket attention (which will lose to Hillary) to WIN SOMETHING. To win House seats. To have a legacy from this Trump year, so that the Libertarians can start to think of themselves as more than a cooky fringe party. I am not so sure they have that level of discipline and intellect - thinking of the one guy who did that strip-tease at their convention. If your party has a reputation of being the nutcases then you also attract the nutcases and it will be difficult to try to convert this into a real rational party of some sense. LEGALIZE POT !!! Haha.

Then on mentally unstable. Yeah. Agreed. Narcissist racist bully. I think to really simplify Trump to his core, he is a 5 year old only child boy. A spoiled brat. If he doesn't get what he wants, he throws a fit. He never had to grow up and never had to learn to take responsibility for his actions, so he learned to always blame others and because his dad was so rich, he got away with it, learning to think he never made any mistakes himself.

Oh, I'd really love to know what he is ACTUALLY worth. I am getting increasingly convinced that Trump is up to his ears in debt. His actual net worth is far less than one Billion dollars - and the VALUE of his possessions is declining continuously as he demolishes the value of the Trump brand. I saw a Tweet - didn't read the article (behind some paywall) which suggested Trump owes 100 million dollars to a FOREIGN bank. That would be a colossal conflict-of-interest, gosh. The US President is indebted to a foreign bank. How convenient for that bank and that government.... ouch indeed.

But if the cornelius scenario turns out, and Trump quits the race, then he will of course postpone and refuse to release his tax returns, all the way to the date he drops out of the race.

But boy would the Republicans have a hissy fit, if Trump screwed them like that haha. Except what can they do. Well, I've been saying Trump is playing the ultimate scam on the Republican voters.. they should learn to vet their candidates better and not fall for con artists like Trump (and stop watching Fox Fake News and various other fake news people like Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck, Ann Coulter and gang)

PS thanks for the 224 list, yeah. Trump is truly epic. He is like Elop in that way, he is exploring every mistake one could imagine, in trying to destroy this race.

(more comments coming)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Millard Filmore]

@Tomi: Deutsche Bank ... a good reason to keep tax returns hidden, and this one leaves a paper trail, unlike any organized crime involvement.

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/6/1/1533142/-Trump-has-a-100-million-conflict-of-interest

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Millard

THANKS !!! I love you guys, you are so fast... thanks yeah. So its Deutsche Bank ie biggest bank of Germany. Trump owes them 100 million. I'd say that is a SLIGHT conflict-of-interest yeah... almost like, you'd want the Presidential nominee to shift that loan to a US bank, wouldn't you? Even if it 'cost' Trump some hundreds of thousands. Why didn't the GOP vet this guy? Why didn't they demand tax returns? I think in the eventual Trump aftermath, both parties will institute rules that any candidate has to release something like 5 years of tax returns before Super Tuesday votes, or else they will have their delgates re-allocated in every subsequent vote, until they release their tax returns and only after that, can they start to accumulate more delegates... this is (yet another) disaster which currently almost nobody has thought about. The potential US President PERSONALLY owes 100 million to a foreign bank. He HAS to release his tax returns. This is totally unacceptable. How can the 'fiscally responsible' Republicans allow this?

PS if its 100 million to DB, how much more to other banks abroad? Betcha this is only the tip of that iceberg...

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[cornelius]

I tried to measure the impact of the Bernie or Bust movement in the general elections. A good way to measure it was by comparing to types of RCP polls: Trump vs Clinton and Trump vs Sanders. In general elections polls Clinton leads Trump by 1.5% and Sanders leads Trump by 10.4%. So the difference between Clinton and Sanders is 8.9%
Now I compare the same polls in the most contested swing states and the difference between Clinton and Sanders is only 6.25%
This shows that in swing states the impact of Bernie or Bust is significantly diminished. And consequently the impact of Bernie or Bust is increased in non swing states where is doesn't matter anyway. This only makes sense because in the swing states people realize the Trump danger and vote in a more responsible manner. I think the impact of the Bernie or Bust movement has been overrated and will only fade away as the election day approaches.

[Tomi T Ahonen]

And then an observation..

The Trump University story seems to indeed have more legs than the Veterans contributions lag and exaggertions. CNN just ran a segment with Anderson Cooper that was quite hilarious the one Trump mouthpiece sounded like a brainwashed lunatic... but yeah. This item will run several news cycles and will have several iterations. It is NEW attacks that damage Trump MORE while Hillary has not had one new attack since emailgate, everything else Trump has thrown at her (or Bill) is old news.

Now, for how bad Trump University deliberate scam was, it is only one, only ONE of the many hideous faults of Trump's personality, and past, that will be coming in the vast archives of Hillary's 'Oppo file' (ie Opposition Research file). So for example the 4 bankruptcies. Then the fights with labor unions. Then the use of temporary immigrant labor to deny Americans of the same jobs. These will all help sour the love that white blue-collar men (and some women) have of Trump. He is the msot despicable rich bully boss they all hate. They just haven't heard that part yet - because Repblicans don't mind severe bosses, they admire rich bosses. But now its the Democrats' turn to show that 'other cheek' of Trump's 'business career' and how abusive he's been specifically against blue-collar workers. TONS of dirt there.

Then there is Trump's past with women, really degrading nasty stuff. It will all come out. Then there are the failed businesses - taking away the image of his business 'smartness' - you don't want Trump to do to the USA what he did to his businesses. Then tons tons tons more (like haha that 100 million dollar loan to Deutsche Bank - I betcha the Hillary Oppo team had that item already). But because there is so much of it, they have categorized all, and have timed the attacks. When will the labor-related voters of Ohio get serious about the general election - when is the OPTIMAL time to launch the anti-Trump labor attacks in general, and when specifically in Ohio, and on which of the various scandals and issues. There is for example one lawsuit that the labor unions ran against Trump which was just denied an appeal to the Supreme Court. It doesn't matter whether Trump 'won' that appeal - that it was not taken by the Supreme Court - there is PLENTY of anger by the unions about Trump and that will all come out - when the time is right. And that will play VERY strongly in Ohio, the best case for Trump to win in the 'rust belt'. If he can't win Ohio, he has no chance in Pennsylvania or Wisconsin (he has no chance in Michigan anyway). And if he loses Ohio by a significant margin, then Indiana might go blue as well...

Then its a DIFFERENT main line of attack in Virginia (women) and a different line of attack in Florida (Hispanics) etc... Hillary will also have different SURROGATES who work well in given states - Obama will play very well in Ohio because he saved Detroit's car makers. The labor unions were lukewarm to Obama but in Ohio, they love him. So when Obama comes to Ohio for Hillary, and says beware of Trump - they will pay attention....

Anyway. Look at how this Trump University story plays in the next two weeks or so. It is a prototype of how the various (dozens and dozens) of attacks from the Hillary campaign will be hitting Trump - on always NEW topics that Trump has not been tested. Each will cut him more, each will limit more his ability to climb, and each will start to erode some of the least-committed support. And now, if any 'remotely plausible' rival can emerge - Johnson - suddenly all this damage will take a different level of damage, as various Republicans and conservaties (plus Johnson and Weld of course themselves) will hit Trump on whatever is his latest fraud or misdeed.

Trump will of course still keep hitting 'crooked Hillary' but those accusations will sound like 'the same old song' by September, while Hillary's team will come up with ever more nasty stuff, new and damaging, to keep pushing Trump to new levels of unprecedented unpopularity.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Continuing on the comments

Millard - thanks (to John Fro) yeah, it seems quite unlikely that Hillary would be indicted but she may be somehow reprimanded, get a slap on her wrist - note, Colin Powell was FAR WORSE and nobody is screaming for Powell to be persecuted. This is clearly pure politics ie a witch-hunt. That also is quite severely frowned-upon by the Courts. Meanwhile, news just broke that Trump has been invoved in over 3,000 lawsuits - about half that he instigated, half where he is the defendant. Yeah, the most litigious candidate to ever run, most def. And gosh, there will be dirt there. It must be a very special type of task, to just go through all open court documents (those that were not sealed) to read what all Trump PERSONALLY has testified to - and what kind of ridiculous stuff is there - like for example, the point that Trump admitted to using an alias when calling press early in his real estate career. Its so funny that he'd try to deny it now, when he is in SWORN TESTIMONY in court documents admitting it.

A whole line of attack is open to Hillary and the Democrats that Trump is a serial liar, and a blatant, straight-faced liar. To have Trump say straight into camera something, then have Trump say the exact opposite also to camera (or for example read from court documents of Trump's own testimony). Now, obviously, Hillary accusing Trump of lying is a bit like the pot calling the kettle black but some others can do this, one of the SuperPACs or an interest group.

Then on Trump U, yeah, am a few days behind and you were right, it has heated up quite a lot. I don't think we are even at its apex yet. Those statements by the students are bad, the statements by ex teachers/sales guys are FAR worse. They are openly admitting it was a fraud. Thats pretty darned nasty. And then there should also emerge that link - Trump promised he would personally hire the best teachers (and he admits now in court documents that he didn't). Now, where have we heard that recently? Oh, Trump's cabinet, it will be the best people. Will it? Will it be as well hand-picked as Trump U with as many crooked con-artists and pushy sales people to screw America, as the Trump U sales reps were screwing those who came for the free first seminar.

cornelius - yeah, thanks. As I wrote in the above long ago, wow that thought is REALLY powerful, a very likely scenario. I think its more likely than not, that Trump will quit before November, to try to avoid the 'reality' of the loss in the actual vote (even as he can't escape the ballot, he will be there and the nation will vote against him).

I wonder if Trump might not commit suicide before election day. I am not wishing that, in fact I hope he lives longer than Mondale so he can really suffer the rest of his life, having tasted this brief glory and then be exiled forever and to see his name become a curse word in politics. But since he seems to be very childish and unstable, and have an incredibly thin skin, and who takes it very personally when for example the media just do their job - it must grate upon him. i wonder if he might actually try to get out by attempting suicide. And I really REALLY don't want him dead. I want him to live long into past 100 years of age, to continue to suffer the humiliation of the aftermath of this year and his pathetic life.

Winter - thanks for the links. Yeah, I've now covered the Trump U story in the above, in enough detail haha.

oibur - true and that too will have plenty of nasty aftermath. For example one of the 'veterans groups' that Trump contributed to now, is actually a semi scam group itself. So much for his 4 months of vetting haha. Now stories coming out that Trump's timeline is not consistent with the calls and the money distributions. And the temper tantrum Trump had with the press - when they literally were doing their job - has been a good wake-up call where the press are waking up to how much Trump is childish about this, and they - the press - do have to do their job, properly. All this means Trump will be under ever more honest and serious scrutiny - just as his troubles keep getting worse. Yeah. Smart play to pick a fight with the whole press corps. Its about as dumb as picking a fight with that judge.

Winter - haha yeah. Trump's behavior would have ended any other campaign in the past. It shows how much he is made of teflon, and how much he is a natural talent - and this means, in the future, successful politicians WILL be taking lessons from Trump's run. But obviously they won't be mad and go make every voting block hate them.

As to New York haha, gosh, Trump really has a knack to get into trouble, doesn't he. I do wish that brings him some reprimand but I don't expect it to really register. He has plenty of far worse sins on his soul. But yeah, I'd love Trump to suffer at every level - so be fined for example for those cases of hijacking his own building when his contract said he has to keep spaces open to the public. Trump HATES to pay, I hope they fine him like half a million dollars haha..>

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Tomi T Ahonen]

So on the map

Trump is again in California (so is Hillary, obviously the Democrats have a primary there next week). Trump AGAIN in California. He is down 12 points to Hillary in California by CURRENT polls, this is before the moronic comments that there is no drought in California, before Jerry Brown's endorsement of Hillary, before the Democratic race has ended and the party unifies behind Hillary and before the big Democratic machine has been fully awakened - that wait, Trump is fighting in our backyard?

Trump is behind about 2 points in Ohio, Virginia and Florida. That is definitely 'doable' in a month. If Trump can hold all states that Romney won in 2012, and wins Florida and either Ohio or Virginia, he becomes the next President. In those three states he is about 2 points behind. Instead of fighting feverishly to flip that modest gap, he goes and spends days - DAYS - in California where he is 12 points behind and where he will lose by 20 points by the time all factors of California have fully played out (huge Hispanic community, most expensive TV ad market). This is again.. utter madness.

Hillary will take the California time any day of any week. She is AHEAD in Ohio, Virginia and Florida - unless Trump goes and FIGHTS to try to take those states, she wins by default. She is ALSO ahead in at least two more states that Obama lost in 2012 - North Carolina and Arizona (by also about 2 points). If Trump runs a perfect campaign in California he could maybe bring California to a single-digit loss by November, say 7 points. If Trump moved in and stayed in California to fight for it. And most likely, because its SUCH a liberal state, such a Democratic state - such a DIVERSE state with minorities, if Hillary just keeps showing up, she'll win it by 12 points even if Trump runs a great campaign there. He can't win California. Not being Trump and against Hillary Clinton this year. That is not in the cards.

But every day he wastes in California, is yet one more day he is not in Ohio, Virginia or Florida - two of those three states Trump HAS to win or he will not be President. Hillary can afford to LOSE all THREE, if she picks up a few other states Obama lost like North Carolina, Arizona and say Georgia. And Hillary is AHEAD in 5 of those six states. In every case Trump would have to OUTPERFORM Hillary while Trump's popularity is worse, his campaign is worse, his message is worse, his surrogates are worse, his budget is FAR worse and Hillary has the Big Data machine tuned to win all those states.

When I see Trump in Sacramento California, I just smile broadly. Yes please Mr Trump, don't come home. Stay another day in California, please. When people review this year in the future they will all conclude Trump had to be mad, and had to have the most incompetent team ever assembled in US politics.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[virgil]

Actually Tomi I've watched you for quite a while. I never said that you'd ignore an blatantly wrong prediction - but I believe that if that happens, you'll write a blog post where you rationalise your prediction error ("nobody thought Trump could win", "prediction is hard so of course I'll get it wrong sometimes", "I did get some (largely irrelevant) aspects right", "the reason why I was ultimately wrong was X which nobody did or could've predicted", etc). What you likely won't do is write a blogpost titled "I am an idiot". Which is what I asked in the first place - since you rushed to call idiots all those who say Trump has more than a fair chance of winning.

[Oibur]

@Virgil

Sorry, but this is very easy to predict who will win in Trump vs Hillary. If one does not let his/her feelings to stay in the way, then he/she will see very easily the evidence that Trump has no way of winning presidential elections ever. One does not have to be a genius to figure out that Trump has no real chance of winning a presidential election.

@Tomi

It is guaranteed that Trump will pull unexpected idiotic stunts that nobody with a half-of-brain or more would have thought possible. I guess that nobody (including Trump himself) is able to predict the idiotic stunts of Trump. Clearly Trump is having fun now. Maybe Trump could hire Elop to lead his campaign?

If I would be the GOP I would never ever pay anything to Trump (not even to cover those 44 million $ debt of his) and I would drive Trump (by feeding him with false hopes that he has a great chance to win) to spend even more from his own money from now on (because this hurts Trump's feelings the most). GOP needs badly (and counts on it) that Hillary will obliterate Trump.

[Winter]

@Virgil
"I never said that you'd ignore an blatantly wrong prediction - but I believe that if that happens, you'll write a blog post where you rationalise your prediction error "

You do not understand the function of a prediction. A prediction or forecast is a test of your understanding. If you prediction turns out wrong your understanding was wrong. You investigate what went wrong and LEARN. That is not a rationalization, that is the only way to learn new things. In the past, I have seen Tomi learn from his errors. If Trump wins the presidency, we can learn a lot about the people in the US and the inner workings of USA politics. If Hillary wins, we learn nothing. As much as I want to learn more about the US and its people, I admit that this time I prefer to learn nothing.

It is clear that the GOP has learned nothing from their losses in 2008 and 2012. They were convinced they would win and they lost badly. THEY were the ones who refused to learn. On the other hand, the Democrats learned a lot from the losses of the Republicans.

[Oibur]

@Winter

> A prediction or forecast is a test of your understanding.

Actually, it is a little bit more complicated than that. A prediction or a forecast is test of your model which is used to model the phenomena. One can understand a phenomena but still not being able to build a good model for predictions. The goodness of a model can be measured in many ways but the most important are the accuracy of the prediction and the complexity of the model.

> If Trump wins the presidency, we can learn a lot about the
> people in the US and the inner workings of USA politics.
> If Hillary wins, we learn nothing.

I disagree here. If Hillary wins we still learn a lot.

[Winter]

@Oibur
Indeed, to both of your points. But I wanted to keep it concise.

We will indeed learn something from a win by Hillary, but that is a "rounding error" of what we would learn if Trump won (except if he won by default if Hillary could not run for any reason).

[Winter]

Talk about a divisive politician

The War Among the Donald Trump Super PACs
http://time.com/4354564/donald-trump-super-pac-campaign-finance/

[Winter]

More on Trump U

Trump University model: Sell hard, demand to see a warrant

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/trump-university-model-sell-hard-demand-to-see-a-warrant/2016/06/02/ead7b7ac-2896-11e6-8329-6104954928d2_story.html

[Oibur]

Sooo... Trump brand is getting damage due to his political (mis)adventure.

Trump angry as golf tournament is moved to Mexico

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-36431731

[virgil]

@Oibur I disagree, and let me just say that I'm eastern-european, we're pretty much fucked if Trump gets the presidential seat (unless EU gets its shit together, which seems unlikely too). So no, I'm not a staunch Trump supporter. That doesn't stop me from seeing that he has more than a fair chance to win.

@Winter you are right when it's a simple prediction. But when you call all the people who don't agree "idiots", even when they have sound arguments (and a track record of predicting well this election, based on said arguments)... I say you're no longer just testing your model

[cornelius]

@virgil
It's one thing to see the race from Romania and quite another to see the race from inside the US. I live in California and I can tell you. Calling Trumps supporters "idiots" may not be politically correct but it is the truth. Currently there are two major movements inside the GOP. The Trump movement which appeals to the idiots and the Tea Party which appeals to the religious nutcases. GOP can't really get rid of these factions because there is not much left after that.
I may be wrong but I think you suffer from the post-communist syndrome. The communism (or socialism or whatever you want to call it) was so horrible in Romania that as a reaction, you tend to drift to the right more than you normally would. I know this because it happened to me. I used to vote for Partidul Național Țărănesc and Convenția Democrată Română but since I moved to Canada in 1997 I realized that social-democracy is actually not bad at all.

[Tomi T Ahonen]

158 days left to election day

Dig, dig, dig, deeper into the hole I must myself now dig...

Hi everybody. Yes 158 days left. Where is the Trumpster? In San Diego. That is California. He's still there. The RCP average had Trump down 16 points to Hillary. That average includes polling from early May before Hillary started to campaign in California. What are the latest polls saying? Marist, one of the best pollsters (with NBC and Wall Street Journal) has the California race today at 24 point lead for Hillary. Poll came out yesterday, interviews in the past 5 days. Field had another poll in the same period, has the race as a 19 point lead for Hillary. It is IMPOSSIBLE for Trump to win in California unless Hillary physically is removed from the race (ie heart attack or something). If Trump fights really hard - he's now been in California for three days in a row at least - he could get that difference down to high single digits, 7% 8% 9% by November, and lose still in a landslide in the state. But every day he sits in San Diego, he is not in Ohio or Virginia or Florida, where Trump HAS to win or he won't become President. Like I said, this is sweet for those who hope he won't win.

Then the other troubles. The judge in the Trump University case. He is now escallating that fight. Thats just dumb. So just like CNN just now had David Gergen lecturing that moron Trump supporter-spokeswoman - you cannot exclude judges based on race in America. You can exclude judges if they have a bias. Race is not a bias. Trump is race-baiting (again) and that claim that someone who is born American, whose heritage is Mexican, would be 'inherently' biased is pure baloney.

Then on Trump University itself. As Trump has faced several days of increasing scrutiny about Trump U, the smart play is to say, it was a mistake, I have run 300 companies, hired 100,000 people to work for me, that was 50 people in the Trump U project, there were a few bad apples, I am sorry, I will settle with those plaintiffs - and move on. The story would die. Instead - as Trump won't take political advice from sane people but rather plays his bluster and bullying games - he of course UPS THE ANTE and introduces his THREATS when he is cornered (this is such good prep for Hillary and the Democrats, to see how Trump reacts to any problems, they should be playing him like a piano by October) - so now Trump says - HE WILL RE-OPEN TRUMP UNIVERSITY once he is President.

So one, this keeps the story in the news. Two it ties Trump totally into the story, he can't escape it. Three, ie makes things worse, because now a clear mistake of the past - several lawsuits of 'FRAUD' - Mr Trump says yeah, he's gonna do that again, and soon. And of course it means the press have now EVERY reason to go dig deeper, find all the students who complained, get sad stories about people who were truly screwed - and always remind voters - oh, Trump thinks this is such a good scam, he wants to do it again. Note also - threatening to perpetuate a past fraud - should get the judges and district attorneys even more eager to bring all this to the public - and fast.

Then we have again fresh Trump ignorance - La Raza, yes there is a militant Hispanic political group who have been picketing Trump events etc. Sure. But that is not the same ATTORNEY's association which has the word 'La Raza' in it - because 'La Raza' the word is Spanish for 'race' and Trump thinks the Hispanic Attorneys' Association is somehow the same as a political group which has been attacking his rallies in California. Typical Trump ignorance which is dangerous. Its as stupid as Trump not knowing about the largest international event going on in Europe with USA's closest European ally, Britain. Brexit. Trump had no idea what that word means (the vote about the UK ie Britain, possibly exiting the European Union, on 23 June). He is a total ignoramus.

But dig dig dig, he keeps digging himself deeper into trouble. Trump University is probably the most damaging thing to his November electio of all accusations that have come up so far (but won't be the biggest by the time November actually happens, just the most damaging so far). And its a rare one where Trump COULD defuse it and make it go away, almost totally. Instead, Trump now makes the Trump University matter live FAR longer and loom large for the whole election season.

Then this racism about Hispanics. Again, it only solidifies the hostility against Trump (and all Republicans). It boosts Hispanic voter turnout (in all Southern states where many Republicans are now vulnerable - like Senator John McCain) this only aggrevates those voters and brings them out in even bigger numbers. (and California has the third-highest Hispanic proportion of the population of any state).

Meanwhile Hillary hit him on the foreign policy side. Obama is throwing bombs at Trump from the White House. Even Mitch McConnell who has endorsed Trump just said the attacks on fellow Republicans like Susana Martinez are foolish, etc etc etc. Trump continues being Trump and its like his house is on fire, instead of trying to put out the fires, Trump pours gasoline. Yes I am happy that he is this dumb. But I must point out, that this is dumb.

Lets see how many more days he wastes in California, and how the polling will shift even more to Hillary once Hillary has clinched her nomination on Tuesday. BTW if Trump says he wants to fight for California, and actively campaigns there for many days in a row - think what comes to Trump's highest priority fantasy state, his home state of New York? He'll probably do as much time in New York as he is doing in California. I do not have the total count of how much time Trump has so far wasted in California but lets say its 5 days of the last 162. Its already 3% just wasted of California. Even if Trump now quit the state as a hopeless cause, its pretty sure he'll also do 5 days in New York state - so at least 6% of his total time is already thrown away. But I am pretty sure Trump won't be 'hearing' the truth about California for a long while. He may waste another 10 days in the next two months, in California... yeah. Am smiling about this.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Millard Filmore]

At the risk of turning this blog into All Trump All the Time ... Mr Trump has posted a rebuttal video that defends Trump University. Three people went before the camera to praise the educational experience, but oddly the three are not currently in the Get Rich Through Real Estate business.

The Wonkettes run a lefty blog that does a good job of making you giggle as they twist the knife.

http://wonkette.com/602519/not-at-all-scammy-video-defends-trump-university-which-was-definitely-not-a-scam