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May 30, 2016

Comments

Winter

Paul and Susana have a difficult time I assume:


Ryan, Clinton slam Trump over racial criticism of judge
http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/03/politics/clinton-statement-on-trump-university-judge/

Wayne Borean


Going back a few days, Tomi said the Elizabeth Warren claim to Native Ancestry had been proven. According to Natives, it hasn't. But they also hate Trump!

http://indiancountrytodaymedianetwork.com/2016/03/21/moya-smith-trump-calls-out-elizabeth-warrens-indian-blood-then-warren-said-madness-163837

Wayne Borean


The American electoral process is a morass on a crumbling cliff. Seriously, it is that bad.

Effectively there are FIFTY Presidential campaigns, one in each state. If you are a Republican, and live in New York, your vote for president does not count. The same is true if you are a Democrat, and live in Alabama. That's because the huge number of opposition voters means your vote has no impact.

I think this is one of the reasons American voter participation is so low. If you don't agree with the local political culture, voting is useless.

And if you don't like either of the major party candidates, you have no where to turn.

Changing this would require an act of political will that any winning party will not have. Why change the system, it is working fine as far as they are concerned!

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Winter & chithanh

On the VP issue for Trump (Hillary will pick Julian Castro so thats pretty well set). First, nobody votes for the VP, they vote for the one on the top of the ticket. So the VP is only an auxiliary person who may help in some ways. Trump has so many gaps in his suitability for President and so many demographics he's angered and so many regions where he is behind, he could go in any possible direction with the VP. But, looking back, Daddy Bush was typical 'fix the party split' kind of choice for Reagan (Trump has plenty of that, a choice like Paul Ryan could help a lot in that). Then a demographic choice was for example Geraldine Ferraro for Mondale (Trump has tons of those problems, yes Susana Martinez would fit into several especially women and Hispanics). Foreign affairs and military is a huge problem for Trump (have you seen the speech Hillary gave, wow, a massive series of body-punches that will resonate for a long time, combined with very well orchestrated videos and other supporting materials) so for example Admiral Stockdale was Ross Perot's answer when he had no military or national security credentials (someone like Condi Rice would fit this mold). A geographic target can be used like Romney selecting Paul Ryan to try to win battleground state Wisconsin (they lost it) but Kasich would be perfect example of that for Ohio. A party core loyalist could help bring a moderate candiate more loyal support from the party base like Sarah Palin's selection was intended to be for McCain (Ted Cruz would fit this type). Age is an issue with Trump, Daddy Bush picked Dan Quayle partly to help look young and hip (Marco Rubio clearly would work there). And there are many more aspects that could come into play and ideally a strong candidate could help in many ways.

Now, in reality, the VP is technically the next in line to become President, if the actual President is incapacitated such as dead or having some health issue or whatever. Reagan was shot, Kennedy was killed, this does happen. So the VP should be someone who is also competent to run the country and understand serious national security matters etc (for example Sarah Palin totally failed on that part). But Trump DESPERATELY needs help to win the election, he won't care too much about is that particular VP actually 'great' as a possible replacement - we saw Trump's silly doctor's note, he would be the healthiest President ever.... And certainly Trump won't want a 'partner' VP like Obama took with Joe Biden, giving the VP plenty of authority (or even the other way around, Dick Cheney as the puppet master to W Bush, pulling the strings). Trump wants a total yes-man - ie someone who will be at least as obedient as Chris Christie. This means many of the best candidates will be not practical (am thinking for example Kasich)

Now we have the issue of WHAT IS HIS STRATEGY and even more importantly, is Trump still under delusions or does he know this California thing is a total waste of his time and money and effort. If Trump REALLY understands that if he doesn't win Ohio, Virginia and Florida (plus one more battleground state) he can't win the Presidency? If he understands that, then the ideal VP candidate should be someone who can help win as many of those states as possible. Yes, Susana Martinez is most def one of my fave picks for him, would help with women voter image and with Hispanics. Now, on the flip side, Trump's campaign already said they won't pick a woman or minority because it would be seen as pandering (??????) but when was Trump beholden to his word in the past. Not a biggie, but a potential inconvenience.

BUT the issue is - why? Will Trump try to win New Mexico (long odds, the state is VERY Hispanic and strongly Democratic, nearing the 10 point level where a state is no longer a battleground state). If Trump does decide he wants to make NM that fourth state in addition to Ohio, Florida and Virginia, then yes. She would also help in the battle for Florida and the women's issue is strong in Virginia. But if you go for the 'state' strategy, then either Ohio (Kasich) or Florida (plenty of choices - Rubio, Governor Rick Scott, haha Jeb Bush) would seem a stronger play because those are larger states. Since you only get to pick one VP, then if you're doing the 'state' pick why not take the largest state rather than a small state.

Now note, Chris Christie delivers exactly nothing. No demographics, no states (NJ will never go Republican) no military or foreign policy experience, etc, nothing. But I'd say Christie is a front-runner because clearly Trump loves the guy. And Trump doesn't seem to be able to determine what is the best thing to do in his campaign at any one point in time.

So back to the election. An optimal candidate can help Trump win, that VP choice could even help in several states and several constituencies - like for example Condi Rice - a woman, plus black - more black voters in battleground states than Hispanics - plus national security benefit which would help in Florida, Virginia, Arizona etc.

Oh, I forgot, attack dog. Carly Fiorina was auditioning to be the perfect VP as Hillary-attack-dog, and was doing a great job at it. She's otherwise mental, so she won't be considered. But that could be a useful talent - however, Trump doesn't need help attacking anybody haha. But yeah, the candidate should be ideally also a great campaigner. Look at Sarah Palin early on in 2008 on the campaign trail, she set rooms on fire, she was hot. So for example if we look at Susana Martinez or say Condi Rice, they don't seem to me, to be strong campaigners - where Chris Christie seems to be more so. Rick Perry, ha ha ha, he'll never be picked. But Marco would be good on the trail.

Now, generally speaking, onto my model. I wouldn't attempt to estimate what a VP would do for his/her own state. I would just remove that state from the model, and wait until we have polling to see how that state is going (often such VP picks have not delivered their home states if they were battleground states like Paul Ryan didn't deliver Wisconsin, but Al Gore did help Bill Clinton win Tennessee so it can work). But the campaign would be quite poorly run if it was unable to use a VP pick to flip one of the battleground states. I've said before that Kasich would almost certainly delivery Ohio for Trump. Could Rubio deliver Florida, tough call, probably not - but he would help narrow the gap and if Trump then fought hard for it, they could win Florida. Remember Hillary gets the support of the more popular Latino politician, Julian Castro on her side as VP, so Rubio's 'advantage' even as a Hispanic is not that big as it would be if Hillary had another white person as her running mate.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Oh, Winter

Sorry, forgot part 2 of the question. Martinez as VP now for 2020 run? Yeah, that IS the calculation why so many are actively running for Trump's pick. Why Rubio for example suddenly forgot all about how evil Trump was and now says he'll vote for Trump. And why Martinez didn't say she is against Trump 'its just politics' and is open to endorsing him. They WANT to be the VP pick. They know Trump will lose this year, meaning Trump won't be the incumbent in 2020 and will not run again. But whoever IS the VP now, will be considered one of - if not THE - front-runner for 2020. The other way to become a front-runner is to finish second in the race (that was Cruz). So for Martinez, she'd get the 'easy path' to a front-runner status without the heavy fighting of the race this season. And get MASSIVE national visibility on Trump's ticket as his running mate. Its why so many are throwing their hats in that ring. They are all angling for 2020 (including Paul Ryan, don't be surprised if he is the choice)

The two early front-runners for 2020 on the Republican side will be Ted Cruz and whoever it is that Trump picks as his VP. Oh, and Trump is using this game now as his weapon to force all 'players' in the GOP to jump to his tune, he said he won't announce his nominee until the Convention - this way Trump gets 'maximum loyalty' out of all who think they are still in the running (even as its likely Trump has already decided).

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Wayne Borean


Predictions, predictions.

This Electoral cycle predictions have become harder. Obama v. McCain and Obama v. Romney were normal elections.

Clinton v. Trump is not.

Tomi's current model sounds solid. A 10 to 20 point win for Clinton seems in the bag.

But...

Both candidates are old. Yes, both are rich enough that they can afford the sort of health care considered normal in Canada and Finland, but which most Americans will never get. But things happen. There are a variety of age related illnesses which can and do hit fast. So we could see either (or both) candidate drop dead in the middle of the race.

Trump is, well, a combative blustering asshole. He could do something so outre that he alienates his supporter base.

Clinton is in many ways a boring candidate. While this was a disadvantage against Obama, it should be a plus against Trump. Should be. But she isn't likely to put her foot in her mouth.

Based on past performance by both candidates (and ignoring Johnson - poor bastard), I suspect that this won't classify as a blowout. Blowout is to mild a term.

What if Hillary took 40 states? We'd have to invent a new term. And while a lot of Republicans hate Hillary with a passion, Trump has damaged the GOP with so many demographics that I could see this happening (partly through vote splitting, a lot of my friends are seriously leaning Libertarian because of him).


Winter

Others agree with Tomi's analysis:

No, the Battleground States Are Not a Terrific Fit for Donald Trump
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/11/upshot/no-the-battleground-states-are-not-a-terrific-fit-for-donald-trump.html?_r=0

Don’t Overthink It: Donald Trump Will Probably Lose
Trump has defied expectations before, but he remains a singularly weak general election candidate.
https://newrepublic.com/article/133322/dont-overthink-it-donald-trump-will-probably-lose

Oops. Donald Trump lost the lead again, and probably never had it.
http://www.redstate.com/neil_stevens/2016/05/26/oops.-donald-trump-lost-lead-probably-never-it./

Winter

And another very nice elaboration on how bad a choice Trump is for the GOP. I think they are painting Romney, Rubio, and Kasich in a rosy light, but still:

The Worst Republican for the Job
Trump is no Romney, Rubio, or Kasich. Just look at the polls.
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/05/trump_is_no_romney_rubio_or_kasich_just_look_at_the_polls.html

These polls don’t prove Trump will lose. But they do provide a set of controlled experiments. They test his performance and the performance of other candidates in common samples, by identical methods, or at similar times in the campaign cycle. In this way, they quantify the damage he’s doing to his party. By nominating Trump instead of Kasich or Rubio, Republicans have sacrificed more than 40 percentage points in net favorability. They’ve jeopardized a dozen states and more than 150 electoral votes. If they lose, Trump will do what he always does: blame everyone else. But his defeat—like his tower, his casinos, and all those diplomas handed out by his scam university—will bear his name.

Welcome to the general election, Donald. The choke’s on you.

cornelius

More predictions.
We got carried away with the general election stuff and we forgot that the Convention has not arrived yet. So let's go back to the future. This weekend we have Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Clinton should sweep the weekend. I predict she will get 5 delegates out of 7 in VI and 40 out of 60 in PR. She needs 70 more delegates to reach the magic number. She's so close, she can almost touch it.

cornelius

Trump is working hard on improving his appeal to African-Americans
http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/03/politics/donald-trump-african-american/
This is the pivot, folks. It's already happening.

Wayne Borean


Republican Stockholm Syndrome

http://blogcritics.org/the-republican-stockholm-syndrome/

Wayne Borean


And Science explains (or tries to)

http://www.patheos.com/blogs/scienceonreligion/2016/06/science-explains-why-america-is-going-off-the-rails/?utm_source=SilverpopMailing&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Patheos%20060316%20(1)&utm_content=&spMailingID=51527872&spUserID=OTQxOTA1MzkzMzAS1&spJobID=940436703&spReportId=OTQwNDM2NzAzS0

Winter

@Wayne Borean
Science as in the human activity, not the magazine.

I agree largely with this analysis:

"This collapse of commitment to the common good is driven, in part, by inequality. Turchin argues that national asabiya rises and falls in cycles. A society starts out with relatively low levels of inequality and high levels of emotional commitment. Everyone feels like they’re all in it together. But high levels of social solidarity make cooperation possible, which leads to economic growth. Over generations, economic growth invariably ends up concentrated in the hands of just a few people. The society becomes less equal and more polarized."

This essentially tells us the collapse of US politics is the consequence of the neo-liberal revolution started with Reagan. That is, the GOP is now destroyed by the very revolution it started.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

New blog up.. I mapped out the whole Trump exit ploy. He promises to release his taxes, he pays off his 44 million dollar debt, he racks up huge TV ad bills, he begs for donations from his supporters, he has the first TV debate set with Hillary. Then he QUITS.

Two years of congressional hearings later cannot discover where the 400 million dollars went. While Trump 2016 campaign will go bankrupt, and Trump himself is bankrupt the next year, that money is never recovered. How did the Trump Con play out? What was the biggest fraud in political history. Read the 2018 Wikipedia entry on the new political phenomenon known as the Trump Con (ps thanks to Cornelius and Winter for inspiring me to dream up the various details to that scenario). Enjoy

Tomi Ahonen :-)

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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