Revised Smartphone Installed Base Numbers, Global and Related Handset Stats - Based on recent Pew survey data

I've been reporting quarterly the installed base of smartphones for a long while now and I believe this blog has been the only source in the public domain to give that count, also including the market shares by operating system. That is probably the most relevant number to most who read data on smartphones ie the developers and various players in the ecosystem. Only the handset manufacturers are really interested in the raw sales numbers and market share that is reported by the other industry analysts quarterly, and all others would then need to try to estimate that number relating to the installed base.

Now that we had that wonderful Pew survey of international mobile phone ownership by adults (ie 'unique owners') and I did some deep analysis of that data projecting from it global numbers and adjusting for the missing youth phone ownership for total global per-capita unique owners, we have some very rare data on the total planetary ownership of mobile phones. But that data also is a check on the total installed base of all phones in use, whether smartphones or dumbphones, which included multiple phone ownership. And the data I've been reporting here quarterly has recently had a creeping error, which I estimate started around year 2003. The recent first-time mobile phone buyers are far poorer than those of the past (who also often buy very low-cost phones whether smartphones or dumbphones; and often buy second-hand phones) They tend not to afford to replace their phones as often as richer buyers, and that means, the total installed base has seen a big growth in older phones still in circulation. Mobile phones are often kept longer and they are also increasingly passed down to family and friends (especially when a teenager gets his or her first smartphone, if often is a hand-me-down) and thus the age when a phone exists the installed base has grown longer than my model. I did a massive readjustment to my model and have updated now my installed base to reflect a base of 2.6 Billion smartphones in use worldwide (this is total smartphones, including those who own more than one) which is in line with the Pew data for 2.3 Billion unique smartphone owners at the end of 2015. So 300 million of all smartphones in use are in pockets of someone who owns two smartphones. Thats obviously 13% of all smartphone owners.

Now I expect that my model was accurate (enough, to say 100 million) in year 2011 so I've adjusted my installed base number and market shares back to 2011 and am now sharing those with you. My quarterly market share blogs in the future will be built upon this number, so if you look at past blogs, there will be a jump but this is the way to adjust those numbers for those who want to have time series numbers for trend analysis.

GLOBAL SMARTPHONE INSTALLED BASE AND OS MARKET SHARES 2011-2015 (REVISED APRIL 2016)

Rank . OS Platform . . . . Units . . . Share 2015 . . . . . . . 2014 . . . . . . . . 2013 . . . . . . . . 2012 . . . . . . . . 2011
1 . . . . Android . . . . . . . 2,079 M . . . . . . . . 79 % . . . . . . . 76 % . . . . . . . 67 % . . . . . . . . 51 % . . . . . . . . 32 %
2 . . . . iOS  . . . . . . . . . . . 505 M . . . . . . . . 19 % . . . . . . . 19 % . . . . . . . 20 % . . . . . . . . 22 % . . . . . . . . 19 % 
5 . . . . Windows* . . . . . . . 31 M . . . . . . . . . 1 % . . . . . . . .  2 % . . . . . . . .  3 % . . . . . . . .  3 % . . . . . . . . . 3 %
4 . . . . Blackberry . . . . . .  15 M . . . . . . . . . 1 % . . . . . . . .  1 % . . . . . . . .  3 % . . . . . . . .  7 % . . . . . . . . 12 %
5 . . . . Symbian . . . . . . . . . 2 M . . . . . . . . . 0 % . . . . . . . .  1 % . . . . . . . .  5 % . . . . . . . .15 % . . . . . . . . 31 % 
Others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 M . . . . . . . . . 0 % . . . . . . . .  0 % . . . . . . . .  1 % . . . . . . . .  2 % . . . . . . . . . 3 %  
TOTAL Installed Base . 2,640 M . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,184 M . . . . . 1,651 M . . . . . 1,172 M . . . . . . . 812 M
Total all handsets . . . .  5,605 M . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,497 M . . . . . 5,323 M . . . . . 5,096 M . . . . . . 4,707 M
Smartphone migration . . . 47 % . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 % . . . . . . . .31 % . . . . . . . 23 % . . . . . . . . . 17%
* Windows includes Windows Phone, Windows 10 Mobile and discontinued Windows Mobile
All annual data installed base reflects market on December 31 of that year
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting April 19, 2016 and TomiAhonen Almanac 2016
This data may be freely used and repeated

So overall compared to my old model, I have raised my total number of global smartphone installed base as of December 31, 2015, by 7%. That has mostly gone to Android where the obvious growth has been mostly in the past 3 years as iPhone's unit sales market share has declined from its peak of 20% in 2012 to the 15% it was in 2014 and it was last year. Note that in my model I already had a very strong long-life factor for the iPhone and the iPhone installed base has for this whole decade been above the actual unit sales market share - due to the long life span of iPhones, I could not really adjust the iPhone number up by much but I did increase it by 2% vs 7% overall for the industry. (Also there is of course a less than sold impact adjustment for Windows as so many of those phones are not ever activated) Still, the iPhone total installed base is 505 million today, good for a corrected installed base market share of 19.1% (vs 20.1% using my older model). iOS fans and developers need to remember that is installed base of iPhone units specifically, ie smartphones, not other iOS devices like iPads and iPod touch media players and Apple Watches, which would of course grow the total accessable market as an OS platform similar to how Android tablets, smart watches, netbooks and other gadgets increase the total also for the Android OS market.

TOTAL INDUSTRY METRICS 2015

So now with these adjustments, we have revised numbers for the full year 2015. Total humans on the planet alive at the end of 2015 was 7.3 Billion people. There were 7.6 Billion active mobile phone accounts ie subscriptions (usually SIM cards) either post-paid or prepaid, combined. That means a top-line metric for our industry of 104% per capita mobile phone account penetration rate. Note in comparing such stats, this is not 'per household' number nor is this a 'by adult population' number. It is per-capita so counting all humans alive from babies to great great grandparents. That 7.6 Billion includes machine-to-machine subscriptions of about 400 million (5% of all active mobile phone accounts are now connecting machines).

As per the Pew survey sample of adults in 30 countries, adjusted for world population we get total unique mobile phone ownership at 5.0 Billion. That is 68% of all humans alive, and this is the 'best measure' if you want to know how far can mobile reach. Yes more than two out of every three humans alive on the planet has both a mobile phone in their pocket and its connected to an active account so the person can be reached for example by SMS text message. The unique user count, easy to remember this year, its an even 5.0 Billion people who have a mobile phone. And calculating out the multiple accounts, 34% of all mobile phone accounts in use, are second or third accounts (whether connected to a second phone or not; some save money owning one phone but swapping SIM cards into it and can easily have four SIM cards and one phone). If you consider the error in using total subs vs unique users, that is now 52%. You OVERCOUNT the actual market by 52% if you talk about total mobile subscriptions when you mean to talk about unique users.. Its time to learn those numbers and use the one that is relevant to you and your business. Sometimes you do want to reach the target on any device he or she is using, so the total subscription count is not an inherently wrong number, just that it is increasingly misleading now in this industry. Usually the unique users number is the best for measuring the actual mobile audience total size.

Some of us have more than one phone. So what is the total phone population in use? 5.6 Billion so 12% of us have two phones. For many of us that is two smartphones. For some who recently became smartphone users, it may be that the older phone is still a featurephone. And for some who just need basic connectivity (say a taxi driver) then both phones (or all 3 or 4 phones) can be very basic phones just that customers on any network can call or text that taxi driver directly. 

As it comes to smartphones, yes 2.3 Billion unique smartphone owners have 2.6 Billion total smartphones in use. Thats 13% of all smartphone owners who have two smartphones. Among dumbphone owners (2.7 Billion people with 3.0 Billion phones) the number who have two phones is of course less as a percentage, its 11%. That will keep coming down rather fast as most who can afford two phones will be migrating to smartphones.

WORLD MOBILE CUSTOMER STATS 2015
World Population . . . . . . . . 7.3 B
Mobile Subscriptions . . . . . 7.6 B
 - of which M2M subs . . . . . . 0.4 B
Mobile Phones in Use . . . .  5.6 B
 - of which Dumbphones . . .  3.0 B
 - of which Smartphones . . .  2.6 B
Unique Mobile Owners . . .  5.0 B
 - of which Dumbphones . . .  2.7 B
 - of which Smartphones . . .  2.3 B
Source: TomiAhonen Almanac 2016
The above data may be freely shared and quoted

So that is what our world looks like today. Feel free to share these numbers with anyone you want and put into infographics and quote in your presentations and stats. Please refer to the upcoming 2016 edition of the TomiAhonen Almanac as the source if you need a formal source or you can also refer to this blog of course. Meanwhile for those who need over 100 such stats for mobile industry, the best stats source every year is the Almanac, and my 2015 edition came out late last year. So the freshest mobile stats on everything you ever wanted is all here, in one volume: TomiAhonen Almanac 2015.

Comments

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

@Lullz:

Yes there is.

There is also an easily available method to pick locks. It's called lockpicking.

You not recognizing lockpicking as "easily available" is another matter entirerly.

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

@Lullz:

And FYI, just search Youtube. Tonnes of ways of how to break into iPhone if you look. :)

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

@Lullz:

Reverse engineering is not cost-effective for a single device.

It is however cost effective if that reverse engineering then means millions of devices can be compromised.

Reverse engineering only has to be done once, by a single person. If that person then finds that by soldering a wire between two pins, one can short-circuit the entire process... That is very cost effective indeed.

So, again - Apple security does not protect against organized crime.

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

@Lullz:

I am talking a grander scale here.

Let's ponder 100 000 iPhones are stolen, yearly. Let's say 95% of these are stolen by some sort of an organized thieves gang, and the rest are thieves too stupid to realise iPhones need some effort to break into.

These gangs will have an expert or have bought instructions on the black market from someone who has cracked the iPhone. It is already reverse engineered it. That took maybe 2 months to do.

With this reverse engineering effort these 100 000 iPhones can be decoupled soldering two wires at specific places. The data on the phone might be lost but these people don't care about the data - they just want the phone to work so they can sell it to some poor schmuck. If it stops working after three days they don't care.

Don't you think the thievery gang *will* do exactly that? Furthermore, if this proves too difficult - don't you think the thievery gang will take 2-3 months to develop a $5 IC component that makes the phone work for the time it has to?

So while you might be right about one specific detail - again - you're completely wrong about the big picture.

And that's the thing about you. You keep harping on about how I'm wrong on a minor detail. So maybe I am.

But you're wrong on the big picture, and that's what matters. :)

[chithanh]

As per the Microsoft quarterly report, they are suffering from high inventory in mobile.

Websites covering (what is left of) Microsoft are speculating about an imminent fire sale of Lumia Phones: Buy one 950XL get one 950 free.
http://mspoweruser.com/buy-one-get-one-free-deal-may-coming-lumia-950-950-xl-soon/

If that will be sufficient to clear inventory remains to be seen.

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

@Wayne: There is one upside atleast. Once at the bottom there is no way but up... ;)

[Chris]

Symbian feels significantly lowballed. I had access to one of east European operators handset statistics last year, still there was around 10% of the user base on Symbian. So only this one small country will give you few hundred thousands.

Also, isn't DOCOMO still shipping Symbian phones even now, to the tune of 2M yearly?

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi everybody

On the Apple results out soon. This will again be time for ridiculous hysteria. Apple is the most profitable company in the human economic history. It is central to the fastest-growing giant industry of the planet. It has the highest loyalty of any of its direct rivals. It has nothing but a long strong profitable future ahead of it.

BUt there was over-expectation built into Apple shareholder minds, that somehow Apple was beyond logic and reason and normal rules of business did not apply. Those silly illusions will START to get shattered today. It is VERY likely that Apple will continue to 'disappoint' the EXPECTATIONS for many of the coming quarters (while sometimes exceeding them) and THAT discrepancy - because the expectations were utterly unrealistic - mean that some who held on the stock for a long time - will lose faith now - because of the stupid reporting that we will no doubt see - and then the REALITY of the company is ignored as its share price is likely to go down.

Now notice how much I broke all the rules on this blog. I spoke about profits, and specifically their size - AND i spoke about Wall Street speculation. So no, you do NOT now have permission to do the same. I wrote this here for you, to underestand the CONTEXT of what will be coming - as the financial press - hysterial little ignorant children - will have a collective kinnuption-fit. And then the iSheep will panic - not all of them - but enough of them that the decline will start.

How long will that last, it won't last forever, because its CERTAIN that the next iPhone 7 will sell well. It will be very profitable. The 5SE will add to the total sales and help gain market share this year. The bad news is not what seemed to be perennial with Nokia (in a similar situation from a more modest initial position obviously 'only' as the most successful handset maker around year 2005) partly because of the economic downturn - which still Nokia did better than ANY of its rivals. We are VERY likely to have another recession within the next 12-18 months - that would ALSO hurt Apple TOTAL sales but not its market share. It would likely damage the OTHER parts of Apple's business FAR MORE than the iPhone business, meaning Apple could see worse performance due to the OTHER divisions rather than iPhone itself (again like Nokia where it bad results were at the networking side not handset side)

So. I wanted to post the warning of the hysteria. Remind everybody that I love Apple and am certain Apple will be having a good growth year this year, plus GAIN market share, and will finish this calendar year again as the most profitable company on the planet, powered much by the iPhone 7 and the resulting surge in sales for Q4 Christmas quarter. I am NOT AT ALL a pessimist agreeing with what I expect to be hysterical analysis from the Wall Street mob.

That said - you are NOT allowed to discuss Apple profits or share price here. The above was a warning on what to expect in the Apple analysis tone today and tomorrow, not an open invitation for us to start to debate daily share prices..

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Abdul Muis]

@Tomi

How much damage do you think of China blocking iTunes Movie & iBook?

[Catriona]

What's interesting with Apple is that while revenue (and particularly the projected revenue) missed estimates, the unit sales actually beat (51.2 million vs 50.0 million). Tim Cook told the WSJ that the revenue projections missed estimates in part because the iPhone SE will negatively affect ARPU. So it seems that Apple is not immune to the saturation of the market, after all. However, their drop in market share may not be as bad as what Tomi expected.

[Catriona]

By "drop" I am referring to Tomi's 2015 predictions, not his post from 2 hours ago.

[Catriona]

@Tomi, you are unusually optimistic about Apple and the iPhone 7. Have you seen Kuo Ming-Chi's report that the iPhone 7 might not be such an attractive update? The rumor is that development delays might force only a modest refresh and that the bigger update is now coming in 2017 (meaning they don't see a huge uptake). That could make 2016 for Apple like Samsung's 2014/2015.

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

So, iPhone Q1 results - 51.2M.

We all knew there would be a drop. I had predicted around 54-55M so worse than my model. This includes the iPhone SE.

So, it seems the rumblings about iPhone 6 being a spike was true after all. :)

And no, Apple is not doomed in any way shape or form for atleast 10 years - but iPhone moving average will end up at maybe as low as 15%. We'll know once Tomi reports the total Q1 numbers right? :)

[Tomi T Ahonen]

To all

iPhone Q1 Jan-March quarter 51.1M units = about 14.3% market share. Will blog of course and we can take discussion there

Tomi Ahonen :-)