Revised Smartphone Installed Base Numbers, Global and Related Handset Stats - Based on recent Pew survey data

I've been reporting quarterly the installed base of smartphones for a long while now and I believe this blog has been the only source in the public domain to give that count, also including the market shares by operating system. That is probably the most relevant number to most who read data on smartphones ie the developers and various players in the ecosystem. Only the handset manufacturers are really interested in the raw sales numbers and market share that is reported by the other industry analysts quarterly, and all others would then need to try to estimate that number relating to the installed base.

Now that we had that wonderful Pew survey of international mobile phone ownership by adults (ie 'unique owners') and I did some deep analysis of that data projecting from it global numbers and adjusting for the missing youth phone ownership for total global per-capita unique owners, we have some very rare data on the total planetary ownership of mobile phones. But that data also is a check on the total installed base of all phones in use, whether smartphones or dumbphones, which included multiple phone ownership. And the data I've been reporting here quarterly has recently had a creeping error, which I estimate started around year 2003. The recent first-time mobile phone buyers are far poorer than those of the past (who also often buy very low-cost phones whether smartphones or dumbphones; and often buy second-hand phones) They tend not to afford to replace their phones as often as richer buyers, and that means, the total installed base has seen a big growth in older phones still in circulation. Mobile phones are often kept longer and they are also increasingly passed down to family and friends (especially when a teenager gets his or her first smartphone, if often is a hand-me-down) and thus the age when a phone exists the installed base has grown longer than my model. I did a massive readjustment to my model and have updated now my installed base to reflect a base of 2.6 Billion smartphones in use worldwide (this is total smartphones, including those who own more than one) which is in line with the Pew data for 2.3 Billion unique smartphone owners at the end of 2015. So 300 million of all smartphones in use are in pockets of someone who owns two smartphones. Thats obviously 13% of all smartphone owners.

Now I expect that my model was accurate (enough, to say 100 million) in year 2011 so I've adjusted my installed base number and market shares back to 2011 and am now sharing those with you. My quarterly market share blogs in the future will be built upon this number, so if you look at past blogs, there will be a jump but this is the way to adjust those numbers for those who want to have time series numbers for trend analysis.

GLOBAL SMARTPHONE INSTALLED BASE AND OS MARKET SHARES 2011-2015 (REVISED APRIL 2016)

Rank . OS Platform . . . . Units . . . Share 2015 . . . . . . . 2014 . . . . . . . . 2013 . . . . . . . . 2012 . . . . . . . . 2011
1 . . . . Android . . . . . . . 2,079 M . . . . . . . . 79 % . . . . . . . 76 % . . . . . . . 67 % . . . . . . . . 51 % . . . . . . . . 32 %
2 . . . . iOS  . . . . . . . . . . . 505 M . . . . . . . . 19 % . . . . . . . 19 % . . . . . . . 20 % . . . . . . . . 22 % . . . . . . . . 19 % 
5 . . . . Windows* . . . . . . . 31 M . . . . . . . . . 1 % . . . . . . . .  2 % . . . . . . . .  3 % . . . . . . . .  3 % . . . . . . . . . 3 %
4 . . . . Blackberry . . . . . .  15 M . . . . . . . . . 1 % . . . . . . . .  1 % . . . . . . . .  3 % . . . . . . . .  7 % . . . . . . . . 12 %
5 . . . . Symbian . . . . . . . . . 2 M . . . . . . . . . 0 % . . . . . . . .  1 % . . . . . . . .  5 % . . . . . . . .15 % . . . . . . . . 31 % 
Others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 M . . . . . . . . . 0 % . . . . . . . .  0 % . . . . . . . .  1 % . . . . . . . .  2 % . . . . . . . . . 3 %  
TOTAL Installed Base . 2,640 M . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,184 M . . . . . 1,651 M . . . . . 1,172 M . . . . . . . 812 M
Total all handsets . . . .  5,605 M . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,497 M . . . . . 5,323 M . . . . . 5,096 M . . . . . . 4,707 M
Smartphone migration . . . 47 % . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 % . . . . . . . .31 % . . . . . . . 23 % . . . . . . . . . 17%
* Windows includes Windows Phone, Windows 10 Mobile and discontinued Windows Mobile
All annual data installed base reflects market on December 31 of that year
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting April 19, 2016 and TomiAhonen Almanac 2016
This data may be freely used and repeated

So overall compared to my old model, I have raised my total number of global smartphone installed base as of December 31, 2015, by 7%. That has mostly gone to Android where the obvious growth has been mostly in the past 3 years as iPhone's unit sales market share has declined from its peak of 20% in 2012 to the 15% it was in 2014 and it was last year. Note that in my model I already had a very strong long-life factor for the iPhone and the iPhone installed base has for this whole decade been above the actual unit sales market share - due to the long life span of iPhones, I could not really adjust the iPhone number up by much but I did increase it by 2% vs 7% overall for the industry. (Also there is of course a less than sold impact adjustment for Windows as so many of those phones are not ever activated) Still, the iPhone total installed base is 505 million today, good for a corrected installed base market share of 19.1% (vs 20.1% using my older model). iOS fans and developers need to remember that is installed base of iPhone units specifically, ie smartphones, not other iOS devices like iPads and iPod touch media players and Apple Watches, which would of course grow the total accessable market as an OS platform similar to how Android tablets, smart watches, netbooks and other gadgets increase the total also for the Android OS market.

TOTAL INDUSTRY METRICS 2015

So now with these adjustments, we have revised numbers for the full year 2015. Total humans on the planet alive at the end of 2015 was 7.3 Billion people. There were 7.6 Billion active mobile phone accounts ie subscriptions (usually SIM cards) either post-paid or prepaid, combined. That means a top-line metric for our industry of 104% per capita mobile phone account penetration rate. Note in comparing such stats, this is not 'per household' number nor is this a 'by adult population' number. It is per-capita so counting all humans alive from babies to great great grandparents. That 7.6 Billion includes machine-to-machine subscriptions of about 400 million (5% of all active mobile phone accounts are now connecting machines).

As per the Pew survey sample of adults in 30 countries, adjusted for world population we get total unique mobile phone ownership at 5.0 Billion. That is 68% of all humans alive, and this is the 'best measure' if you want to know how far can mobile reach. Yes more than two out of every three humans alive on the planet has both a mobile phone in their pocket and its connected to an active account so the person can be reached for example by SMS text message. The unique user count, easy to remember this year, its an even 5.0 Billion people who have a mobile phone. And calculating out the multiple accounts, 34% of all mobile phone accounts in use, are second or third accounts (whether connected to a second phone or not; some save money owning one phone but swapping SIM cards into it and can easily have four SIM cards and one phone). If you consider the error in using total subs vs unique users, that is now 52%. You OVERCOUNT the actual market by 52% if you talk about total mobile subscriptions when you mean to talk about unique users.. Its time to learn those numbers and use the one that is relevant to you and your business. Sometimes you do want to reach the target on any device he or she is using, so the total subscription count is not an inherently wrong number, just that it is increasingly misleading now in this industry. Usually the unique users number is the best for measuring the actual mobile audience total size.

Some of us have more than one phone. So what is the total phone population in use? 5.6 Billion so 12% of us have two phones. For many of us that is two smartphones. For some who recently became smartphone users, it may be that the older phone is still a featurephone. And for some who just need basic connectivity (say a taxi driver) then both phones (or all 3 or 4 phones) can be very basic phones just that customers on any network can call or text that taxi driver directly. 

As it comes to smartphones, yes 2.3 Billion unique smartphone owners have 2.6 Billion total smartphones in use. Thats 13% of all smartphone owners who have two smartphones. Among dumbphone owners (2.7 Billion people with 3.0 Billion phones) the number who have two phones is of course less as a percentage, its 11%. That will keep coming down rather fast as most who can afford two phones will be migrating to smartphones.

WORLD MOBILE CUSTOMER STATS 2015
World Population . . . . . . . . 7.3 B
Mobile Subscriptions . . . . . 7.6 B
 - of which M2M subs . . . . . . 0.4 B
Mobile Phones in Use . . . .  5.6 B
 - of which Dumbphones . . .  3.0 B
 - of which Smartphones . . .  2.6 B
Unique Mobile Owners . . .  5.0 B
 - of which Dumbphones . . .  2.7 B
 - of which Smartphones . . .  2.3 B
Source: TomiAhonen Almanac 2016
The above data may be freely shared and quoted

So that is what our world looks like today. Feel free to share these numbers with anyone you want and put into infographics and quote in your presentations and stats. Please refer to the upcoming 2016 edition of the TomiAhonen Almanac as the source if you need a formal source or you can also refer to this blog of course. Meanwhile for those who need over 100 such stats for mobile industry, the best stats source every year is the Almanac, and my 2015 edition came out late last year. So the freshest mobile stats on everything you ever wanted is all here, in one volume: TomiAhonen Almanac 2015.

Comments

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

@Tomi:

I'm not entirerly convinced that Apple will now start with a bi-yearly release. They might stick with releasing three phones each fall. Because Apple logic.

Also, I'm not convinced the SE will move that many extra units this iteration as hoped. Reception seems mixed, and the release was kinda...

"Yay, release wooh... Come all you three new customers! *tumbleweed rolls by*"

But then we'll see once the numbers come in. :)

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

Ars recently had a very interesting analysis of the mid-end market and why Apple joined that prematurely:

http://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2016/04/the-rise-of-the-400-smartphone-you-want-how-much-for-a-flagship/

Might explain a thing or two. :)

[AppleIsSuchAHugeFailure!!]

It is so funny when people advise Apple to do something and doubts " Apples logic". Tim Cook has the BEST track record of the all CEO's in the business. Giving him advise is like telling your father how to make babies. Apple is writing the school books how to do things and everybody should study them very carefully.

[abdul muis]

Tim Cook just riding on the hype that Jobs created.

[abdul muis]

@Wayne.

One of this 3....
1. Apple might introduce the iPhone 7 2-3 months sonner?
2. Apple just play it cool and say the SE will take care the next Q
3. Apple will highlight other achievement, and pent up demand for iPhone 7.

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

@Lullz:

No, I have a single model that updates as new facts become available. Any forecast I give is at any point in time based on this model. My cards are open, my numbers are available. If you have better numbers show them or shut up.

As for spewing untrue and misleading facts, you claimed the iPhone was unhackable - I pointed to information to the contrary, granted a couple of years old. I believe you said something like: "iPhone has never had any security holes".

So the one spreading disinformation here is you, if anyone. :)

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

@Lullz:

If you are so lazy that you cannot go to a single link that I posted then you are merely trolling. I did not post that data here on this blog because

a) I cannot link images to this blog, and
b) A spreadsheet is superior to showing tabular data.

If that is not enough then obviously you are not interested in dealing with truth, just FUD and trolling.

And yes, it *is* dead simple to circumvent the security on an iPhone. It goes something like this:

1. Take phone.
2. As quickly as possible, get a fingerprint from the phone. (One is available 99.99999% of the time, especially on the fingerprint reader...)
3. Use said fingerprint to fool the iPhone.

Tadah, you're in business, and this can be done within 10-20 minutes of the phone being stolen. If the device itself is interesting and not the data, then replace the TouchID button and you are done.

Trust me, TouchID is not nearly as hard to circumvent as you make it out to be. It's fine for keeping your friends out of your phone, but not a dedicated attacker...

[cornelius]

Hey, just to break the great discussion on the Iphone a bit. We have very good news from the (forgotten) WP front. Apparently Microsoft sold a whooping 2.3 million Lumias last quarter. That's 73% less than Q1 2015. But don't you worry, the SourFarce phone (formerly known as Surface) is coming soon.

[chithanh]

@AppleIsSuchAHugeFailure!!
It seems you are new here. I hope you can learn and start making meaningful contributions.

Lumia is pretty much dead, they sold 2.3 million devices in Q1 2016 (so less than 1% marketshare). Tester and all the other sane posters here always said in line with Tomi that Windows Phone was moribund. Same for BB which might overtake Windows Mobile once again next quarter on their way to the grave.

Also this is not an investor's board, so who makes how much profit is quite uninteresting, as long as there is at least a small profit. We are discussing how mobile is the future, and this means how many pockets you can reach. And Apple just had a small setback here, and the outlook ("peak iPhone") isn't too great either.

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

@Lullz:

Oh for the love of...

Ok, so you can't follow a simple link where I detail the numbers. Again, the short version:

Apple will probably sell somewhere between 225M-250M iPhones this year. It all depends on how well the iPhone SE will sell and how much the "hangover effect" from last years party kicks in.

Given total market sales of 1.6B, that means 14.1%-15.6% percent market share. In the data I posted I used 225M as a basic stepping stone. Once Q2 numbers are in I can give a more precise forecast, since right now we still don't know the CE impact...

There mr lazy ass that can't be bothered to check the quarterly graphs. You happy?

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

@Lullz:

So, tell me again what is stopping a thief from opening up the device and doing a factory reset?

Because let me tell you, organized thieving guilds have this equipment.

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

@Lullz:

That was posted in another thread. You're still a lazyarse. :)

And it is possible to spoof this UUID so no you are wrong.

While you can't change the UUID itself - you can change what UUID the phone reports to iTunes. So, wrong again.

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

@Lullz:

It's dead simple. While the pairing cannot be removed, it is possible to create a new pairing and leave the old one dormant.

But security and usability are almost opposites so what do you expect :)

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

@Lullz:

It is possible through reverse engineering to create an almost identical copy of iOS with one crucial difference - telling a new UUID. This is not very hard at all. It won't be a secure device sure but thieves are con-men - they don't care.

So what happens is that your iPhone gets stolen, taken to a shop that puts this new, insecure image on the phone as well as disables/tampers with the chip, and then resells it as a brand new phone.

Another thing they might do is to take your iPhone and say "Screw Apple, I just put in my own electronics in this" and replaces the electronics entirerly. Once the sucker buying the phone realises what is going on the thief is long since gone. Remember it only has to look good for 2 hours or so.

Also obligatory XKCD: https://xkcd.com/538/

[abdul muis]

Apple iBooks & iMovie were blocked in China....

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

@Lullz:

It requires minimal engineering skills that can be taught in a week to a monkey. That's what I call easy. Lockpicking is also a skill that can be taught in a week. Also easy.

Like I said before - Apple security works for the most common cases, but not against a dedicated attacker or organised crime gangs, and sadly many thieves are organising themselves into gangs these days.

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

@Lullz:

The knowledge is already there, the step-by-step instructions already exists, and no I do not have a reason to search the web for it, why waste the time? I know it is possible, and yes I am an electrical engineer; I think it is you who does not know what you're talking about. :)

Just because something is not easy to describe, does not mean it's easy to perform once you know how it works. Describing how to ride a bike, for instance, is very complex yet most people manage just fine. This is sorta the same thing. A skill that is easy to learn but the difference is, most do not need that skill so most do not learn it. Yet give any EE motivation enough and he can devise a method to crack the iPhone. Once the method exists, teaching it to others becomes a piece of cake.

[Tomi T Ahonen]

hi everybody

So yes, Microsoft Q1 numbers came out and I expected them to be bad again; they were far worse. MS is at 2.3M total Lumia smartphones sold in the quarter. That is down 49% from Q4. Their market share now is 0.6% down from 1.1% just three months prior. So lets recall the pattern:

Before Elop, the Nokia smartphone business was highly profitable and growing at world-record pace. Nokia's Symbian based smartphone business had 35% market share for year 2010, grew more than any of its rivals, grew more than the iPhone (but yes, Apple was even more profitable). In the two years up to the change and up to the immediate last quarter before his change, Nokia unit sales of smartphones had literally doubled. In the last Quarter of the year 2010, Nokia shattered its own (and world record) unit sales record, shattered its own records in smartphone revenues and smartphone profits. Yes, it was literally the most profitable quarter the Nokia business had ever had in its smartphone unit. Nokia was the largest smartphone maker in 2008, it was the largest smartphone maker in 2009 and the largest smartphone maker (more than twice the size of its nearest rival) in 2010.

And Nokia had grown in the past 12 months more than Samsung, more than Blackberry and yes, check the numbers Nokia had grown smartphone unit sales MORE THAN the iPhone. Apple was not in any way catching up to Nokia, Nokia WAS PULLING AWAY from Apple in the race for smartphones. With Symbian ! The only reason Nokia's smartphone market share was falling was because MORE RIVALS were entering the game, so all shares were DILUTED not that Nokia was in any way 'losing'. To be clear, Nokia's lead in smartphone business was STRONGER than IBM, HP, Dell, Compaq had EVER had in the PC business. Nokia's lead in smartphones was stronger than Toyota, GM or Volkswagen had EVER had in cars. The leader of ANY other industry from Coca Cola to Boeing would love to have in their industry what Nokia had in December 2010 in smartphones. Yet in February moron Stephen Elop decided this was destruction for Nokia and he had to commit to a wild gamble that turned out suicidal.

From Q4 of 2010 (last quarter before Elop announced his change) to Q4 of 2012 (last quarter that non-Windows smartphones were sold by Nokia on MeeGo and Symbian OS platforms) the Nokia smartphone business went over the cliff and collapsed. The Nokia smartphone market share fell every single quarter and Nokia unit sales fell 5 out of the 7 times. The only times Nokia had a brief climb in unit sales (but not market share) was when Nokia introduced two new operating systems, the big gain was with Nokia's own MeeGo (the most beloved new OS launched by any maker since the iPhone's own iOS) with two quarters of unit growth, and the slight gain was when Windows Phone was launched with one quarter of unit growth. In these two years, Nokia unit sales fell by literally three quarters. From doubling in two years, to losing 3 out of every 4, it was a total catastrophic failure to switch from highly successful Symbian (and MeeGo) based smartphone business generating record profits for Nokia, to Windows. Nokia fell from being the largest smartphone maker at the end of 2010, to the third largest by the end of 2011 and only the 9th largest by the end of 2012 !!!

And yes, in EVERY SINGLE QUARTER of this two-year period, the Nokia smartphone unit generated a colossal loss. From never once failing to make a profit and with growing, record-setting profits, the new CEO switched to a platform which only generated losses. (Also true of all other manufacturers who ever used Windows, not one of them - not one of them, was able to generate a profit with Windows after the industry got competitive)

In the year-and-a-half from when Nokia's smartphone business was only Windows based, to when the smartphone business was handed over to Microsoft in the deal selling the business, the Nokia smartphone business was essentially flat. It was stuck at about 3% market share of customers who stubbornly refused to abandon the Nokia brand, who bought those horrible smartphones inspite of the fact that they had Windows. Nokia's peak smartphone market share for the Lumia unit was 3.5% and bottom was 2.5% and the share fluctuated within that narrow band. The smartphone business generated a loss in every single quarter during this period. The absolute unit sales of the business grew only by 17% in this period while the industry added half to its size. The customers who did buy Lumia were left picking between a highly beloved hardware handset brand (Nokia) and the most hated poisonous software brand (Microsoft & Windows). Nokia's gallant sales machine could push this hated package enough, that 3% of the market took it. Nokia's share of the market had seen an erosion where 9 out of 10 customers were pushed away BUT it was still possible to get some business out of this 'package' if that was done under the Nokia management, brand and sales force. That changed when Microsoft took over the business.

In the last year-and-a-half that Microsoft has held the SAME Lumia unit, the sales have plummetted a FURTHER 71%. The unit sales grew only for one quarter (a Christmas quarter) and all other quarters the unit sales fell. The MARKET SHARE which had been flat for Nokia under the same situation, now collapsed. This is Lumia unit market share after Microsoft took over the business:

Q3 2014 2.9%
Q4 2014 2.8%
Q1 2015 2.5%
Q2 2015 2.4%
Q3 2015 1.6%
Q4 2015 1.1%
Q1 2016 0.6%

In the short year-and-a-half of the life of Lumia under Microsoft's ownership, as Microsoft fired more of the staff and instituted Microsoftian sales principles and channels, and stopped even moderate new model launches, and dropped the Nokia branding and now tries to sell these as Microsoft Lumias, still running the hated Windows - the market share has shred ANOTHER 4 out of 5 customers IT HAD LEFT.. Since Elop's original fuck-up in February of 2011, Nokia has aggressively pushed away 49 out of every 50 smartphone customers it had (who in 2010 had the best smartphone owner loyalty of the industry, globally with sky-rocket market shares in the largest markets of the industry now, in China and India, both bigger than the USA).

And yes. This Lumia unit is STILL BLEEDING badly. It has NEVER ONCE managed to sell a smartphone for profit, not while under Nokia ownership and not under Microsoft ownership. Every single Lumia unit that has ever been sold, is so bad, hated so much by the customrs, they had to be sold at a LOSS. And worse - one third of all smartphones ever shipped - HAVE NEVER BEEN ACTIVATED (as Microsoft itself admitted). So even that horribly lousy share that Lumia has held, is an ILLUSION. The reality is WORSE THAN THAT.

So yes. I said this unit can never live. There is no life in it. It is a ZOMBIE. It has died YEARS AGO. It cannot be revived. Not by Windows, not by Windows Phone 7. Not by Windows Phone 8. Not by Windows 9 (which never was). Not by Windows 10. Not by selling this unit to Microsoft. Not by abandoning the far more popular OS platforms that once were sold alongside by this unit, of Symbian, MeeGo and Android smartphones marketed also as Nokia smartphones. And not even by firing moron Elop and giving this unit to a sane manager. I told you this unit cannot be saved. All money thrown at this business is further millions down the endless black hole where they will never produce a return. And I have been correct about this every time and here we are.

Microsoft Windows Lumia unit sold 2.3 Million smartphones, down 49% from just 3 months prior, with market share 0.6% and falling fast, and the unit keeps recording LOSSES and still phones shipping with the OS never get activated even if some fool buys one for its decent camera. Its OS platform is already dead, the apps at the Windows 10 Mobile market are all abandoned and most major apps makers have abandoned the platform IN PUBLIC so imagine how many more have postponed indefinitely their promised updates and launches.

THIS IS DEAD. The CEO already cancelled new Lumia unit launches that were in the pipeline. There have been waves and waves of layoffs. MORE WILL COME. This unit is dead. The Lumia business will be shuttered. Its days have been counted. This is a dead business.

So sayeth the Tomi...

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Tomi T Ahonen]

PS I am so sorry

totally unforgivable omission.

Stephen Elop the worst CEO of any business of all time

There, now its done. Sorry about that (I must be still shaken by the death of Prince)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Earendil Star]

Tomi, this should have been a post in its own right, not just a comment...
I was just thinking of all those on this blog who said that Windows Phone was the only solution for Nokia... and they went on and on and on just repeating the same BS all the time...
No, I don't care that we were right and they were wrong. Because the tragedy of what happened to Nokia is immense and will continue to haunt Finland for years to come.
Bravo Ballmer. Bravo Elop the Trojan Horse mercenary.