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April 19, 2016

Comments

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Tomi:

I'm not entirerly convinced that Apple will now start with a bi-yearly release. They might stick with releasing three phones each fall. Because Apple logic.

Also, I'm not convinced the SE will move that many extra units this iteration as hoped. Reception seems mixed, and the release was kinda...

"Yay, release wooh... Come all you three new customers! *tumbleweed rolls by*"

But then we'll see once the numbers come in. :)

Per "wertigon" Ekström

Ars recently had a very interesting analysis of the mid-end market and why Apple joined that prematurely:

http://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2016/04/the-rise-of-the-400-smartphone-you-want-how-much-for-a-flagship/

Might explain a thing or two. :)

AppleIsSuchAHugeFailure!!

It is so funny when people advise Apple to do something and doubts " Apples logic". Tim Cook has the BEST track record of the all CEO's in the business. Giving him advise is like telling your father how to make babies. Apple is writing the school books how to do things and everybody should study them very carefully.

abdul muis

Tim Cook just riding on the hype that Jobs created.

abdul muis

@Wayne.

One of this 3....
1. Apple might introduce the iPhone 7 2-3 months sonner?
2. Apple just play it cool and say the SE will take care the next Q
3. Apple will highlight other achievement, and pent up demand for iPhone 7.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Lullz:

No, I have a single model that updates as new facts become available. Any forecast I give is at any point in time based on this model. My cards are open, my numbers are available. If you have better numbers show them or shut up.

As for spewing untrue and misleading facts, you claimed the iPhone was unhackable - I pointed to information to the contrary, granted a couple of years old. I believe you said something like: "iPhone has never had any security holes".

So the one spreading disinformation here is you, if anyone. :)

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Lullz:

If you are so lazy that you cannot go to a single link that I posted then you are merely trolling. I did not post that data here on this blog because

a) I cannot link images to this blog, and
b) A spreadsheet is superior to showing tabular data.

If that is not enough then obviously you are not interested in dealing with truth, just FUD and trolling.

And yes, it *is* dead simple to circumvent the security on an iPhone. It goes something like this:

1. Take phone.
2. As quickly as possible, get a fingerprint from the phone. (One is available 99.99999% of the time, especially on the fingerprint reader...)
3. Use said fingerprint to fool the iPhone.

Tadah, you're in business, and this can be done within 10-20 minutes of the phone being stolen. If the device itself is interesting and not the data, then replace the TouchID button and you are done.

Trust me, TouchID is not nearly as hard to circumvent as you make it out to be. It's fine for keeping your friends out of your phone, but not a dedicated attacker...

cornelius

Hey, just to break the great discussion on the Iphone a bit. We have very good news from the (forgotten) WP front. Apparently Microsoft sold a whooping 2.3 million Lumias last quarter. That's 73% less than Q1 2015. But don't you worry, the SourFarce phone (formerly known as Surface) is coming soon.

chithanh

@AppleIsSuchAHugeFailure!!
It seems you are new here. I hope you can learn and start making meaningful contributions.

Lumia is pretty much dead, they sold 2.3 million devices in Q1 2016 (so less than 1% marketshare). Tester and all the other sane posters here always said in line with Tomi that Windows Phone was moribund. Same for BB which might overtake Windows Mobile once again next quarter on their way to the grave.

Also this is not an investor's board, so who makes how much profit is quite uninteresting, as long as there is at least a small profit. We are discussing how mobile is the future, and this means how many pockets you can reach. And Apple just had a small setback here, and the outlook ("peak iPhone") isn't too great either.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Lullz:

Oh for the love of...

Ok, so you can't follow a simple link where I detail the numbers. Again, the short version:

Apple will probably sell somewhere between 225M-250M iPhones this year. It all depends on how well the iPhone SE will sell and how much the "hangover effect" from last years party kicks in.

Given total market sales of 1.6B, that means 14.1%-15.6% percent market share. In the data I posted I used 225M as a basic stepping stone. Once Q2 numbers are in I can give a more precise forecast, since right now we still don't know the CE impact...

There mr lazy ass that can't be bothered to check the quarterly graphs. You happy?

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Lullz:

So, tell me again what is stopping a thief from opening up the device and doing a factory reset?

Because let me tell you, organized thieving guilds have this equipment.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Lullz:

That was posted in another thread. You're still a lazyarse. :)

And it is possible to spoof this UUID so no you are wrong.

While you can't change the UUID itself - you can change what UUID the phone reports to iTunes. So, wrong again.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Lullz:

It's dead simple. While the pairing cannot be removed, it is possible to create a new pairing and leave the old one dormant.

But security and usability are almost opposites so what do you expect :)

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Lullz:

It is possible through reverse engineering to create an almost identical copy of iOS with one crucial difference - telling a new UUID. This is not very hard at all. It won't be a secure device sure but thieves are con-men - they don't care.

So what happens is that your iPhone gets stolen, taken to a shop that puts this new, insecure image on the phone as well as disables/tampers with the chip, and then resells it as a brand new phone.

Another thing they might do is to take your iPhone and say "Screw Apple, I just put in my own electronics in this" and replaces the electronics entirerly. Once the sucker buying the phone realises what is going on the thief is long since gone. Remember it only has to look good for 2 hours or so.

Also obligatory XKCD: https://xkcd.com/538/

abdul muis

Apple iBooks & iMovie were blocked in China....

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Lullz:

It requires minimal engineering skills that can be taught in a week to a monkey. That's what I call easy. Lockpicking is also a skill that can be taught in a week. Also easy.

Like I said before - Apple security works for the most common cases, but not against a dedicated attacker or organised crime gangs, and sadly many thieves are organising themselves into gangs these days.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Lullz:

The knowledge is already there, the step-by-step instructions already exists, and no I do not have a reason to search the web for it, why waste the time? I know it is possible, and yes I am an electrical engineer; I think it is you who does not know what you're talking about. :)

Just because something is not easy to describe, does not mean it's easy to perform once you know how it works. Describing how to ride a bike, for instance, is very complex yet most people manage just fine. This is sorta the same thing. A skill that is easy to learn but the difference is, most do not need that skill so most do not learn it. Yet give any EE motivation enough and he can devise a method to crack the iPhone. Once the method exists, teaching it to others becomes a piece of cake.

Tomi T Ahonen

hi everybody

So yes, Microsoft Q1 numbers came out and I expected them to be bad again; they were far worse. MS is at 2.3M total Lumia smartphones sold in the quarter. That is down 49% from Q4. Their market share now is 0.6% down from 1.1% just three months prior. So lets recall the pattern:

Before Elop, the Nokia smartphone business was highly profitable and growing at world-record pace. Nokia's Symbian based smartphone business had 35% market share for year 2010, grew more than any of its rivals, grew more than the iPhone (but yes, Apple was even more profitable). In the two years up to the change and up to the immediate last quarter before his change, Nokia unit sales of smartphones had literally doubled. In the last Quarter of the year 2010, Nokia shattered its own (and world record) unit sales record, shattered its own records in smartphone revenues and smartphone profits. Yes, it was literally the most profitable quarter the Nokia business had ever had in its smartphone unit. Nokia was the largest smartphone maker in 2008, it was the largest smartphone maker in 2009 and the largest smartphone maker (more than twice the size of its nearest rival) in 2010.

And Nokia had grown in the past 12 months more than Samsung, more than Blackberry and yes, check the numbers Nokia had grown smartphone unit sales MORE THAN the iPhone. Apple was not in any way catching up to Nokia, Nokia WAS PULLING AWAY from Apple in the race for smartphones. With Symbian ! The only reason Nokia's smartphone market share was falling was because MORE RIVALS were entering the game, so all shares were DILUTED not that Nokia was in any way 'losing'. To be clear, Nokia's lead in smartphone business was STRONGER than IBM, HP, Dell, Compaq had EVER had in the PC business. Nokia's lead in smartphones was stronger than Toyota, GM or Volkswagen had EVER had in cars. The leader of ANY other industry from Coca Cola to Boeing would love to have in their industry what Nokia had in December 2010 in smartphones. Yet in February moron Stephen Elop decided this was destruction for Nokia and he had to commit to a wild gamble that turned out suicidal.

From Q4 of 2010 (last quarter before Elop announced his change) to Q4 of 2012 (last quarter that non-Windows smartphones were sold by Nokia on MeeGo and Symbian OS platforms) the Nokia smartphone business went over the cliff and collapsed. The Nokia smartphone market share fell every single quarter and Nokia unit sales fell 5 out of the 7 times. The only times Nokia had a brief climb in unit sales (but not market share) was when Nokia introduced two new operating systems, the big gain was with Nokia's own MeeGo (the most beloved new OS launched by any maker since the iPhone's own iOS) with two quarters of unit growth, and the slight gain was when Windows Phone was launched with one quarter of unit growth. In these two years, Nokia unit sales fell by literally three quarters. From doubling in two years, to losing 3 out of every 4, it was a total catastrophic failure to switch from highly successful Symbian (and MeeGo) based smartphone business generating record profits for Nokia, to Windows. Nokia fell from being the largest smartphone maker at the end of 2010, to the third largest by the end of 2011 and only the 9th largest by the end of 2012 !!!

And yes, in EVERY SINGLE QUARTER of this two-year period, the Nokia smartphone unit generated a colossal loss. From never once failing to make a profit and with growing, record-setting profits, the new CEO switched to a platform which only generated losses. (Also true of all other manufacturers who ever used Windows, not one of them - not one of them, was able to generate a profit with Windows after the industry got competitive)

In the year-and-a-half from when Nokia's smartphone business was only Windows based, to when the smartphone business was handed over to Microsoft in the deal selling the business, the Nokia smartphone business was essentially flat. It was stuck at about 3% market share of customers who stubbornly refused to abandon the Nokia brand, who bought those horrible smartphones inspite of the fact that they had Windows. Nokia's peak smartphone market share for the Lumia unit was 3.5% and bottom was 2.5% and the share fluctuated within that narrow band. The smartphone business generated a loss in every single quarter during this period. The absolute unit sales of the business grew only by 17% in this period while the industry added half to its size. The customers who did buy Lumia were left picking between a highly beloved hardware handset brand (Nokia) and the most hated poisonous software brand (Microsoft & Windows). Nokia's gallant sales machine could push this hated package enough, that 3% of the market took it. Nokia's share of the market had seen an erosion where 9 out of 10 customers were pushed away BUT it was still possible to get some business out of this 'package' if that was done under the Nokia management, brand and sales force. That changed when Microsoft took over the business.

In the last year-and-a-half that Microsoft has held the SAME Lumia unit, the sales have plummetted a FURTHER 71%. The unit sales grew only for one quarter (a Christmas quarter) and all other quarters the unit sales fell. The MARKET SHARE which had been flat for Nokia under the same situation, now collapsed. This is Lumia unit market share after Microsoft took over the business:

Q3 2014 2.9%
Q4 2014 2.8%
Q1 2015 2.5%
Q2 2015 2.4%
Q3 2015 1.6%
Q4 2015 1.1%
Q1 2016 0.6%

In the short year-and-a-half of the life of Lumia under Microsoft's ownership, as Microsoft fired more of the staff and instituted Microsoftian sales principles and channels, and stopped even moderate new model launches, and dropped the Nokia branding and now tries to sell these as Microsoft Lumias, still running the hated Windows - the market share has shred ANOTHER 4 out of 5 customers IT HAD LEFT.. Since Elop's original fuck-up in February of 2011, Nokia has aggressively pushed away 49 out of every 50 smartphone customers it had (who in 2010 had the best smartphone owner loyalty of the industry, globally with sky-rocket market shares in the largest markets of the industry now, in China and India, both bigger than the USA).

And yes. This Lumia unit is STILL BLEEDING badly. It has NEVER ONCE managed to sell a smartphone for profit, not while under Nokia ownership and not under Microsoft ownership. Every single Lumia unit that has ever been sold, is so bad, hated so much by the customrs, they had to be sold at a LOSS. And worse - one third of all smartphones ever shipped - HAVE NEVER BEEN ACTIVATED (as Microsoft itself admitted). So even that horribly lousy share that Lumia has held, is an ILLUSION. The reality is WORSE THAN THAT.

So yes. I said this unit can never live. There is no life in it. It is a ZOMBIE. It has died YEARS AGO. It cannot be revived. Not by Windows, not by Windows Phone 7. Not by Windows Phone 8. Not by Windows 9 (which never was). Not by Windows 10. Not by selling this unit to Microsoft. Not by abandoning the far more popular OS platforms that once were sold alongside by this unit, of Symbian, MeeGo and Android smartphones marketed also as Nokia smartphones. And not even by firing moron Elop and giving this unit to a sane manager. I told you this unit cannot be saved. All money thrown at this business is further millions down the endless black hole where they will never produce a return. And I have been correct about this every time and here we are.

Microsoft Windows Lumia unit sold 2.3 Million smartphones, down 49% from just 3 months prior, with market share 0.6% and falling fast, and the unit keeps recording LOSSES and still phones shipping with the OS never get activated even if some fool buys one for its decent camera. Its OS platform is already dead, the apps at the Windows 10 Mobile market are all abandoned and most major apps makers have abandoned the platform IN PUBLIC so imagine how many more have postponed indefinitely their promised updates and launches.

THIS IS DEAD. The CEO already cancelled new Lumia unit launches that were in the pipeline. There have been waves and waves of layoffs. MORE WILL COME. This unit is dead. The Lumia business will be shuttered. Its days have been counted. This is a dead business.

So sayeth the Tomi...

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

PS I am so sorry

totally unforgivable omission.

Stephen Elop the worst CEO of any business of all time

There, now its done. Sorry about that (I must be still shaken by the death of Prince)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Earendil Star

Tomi, this should have been a post in its own right, not just a comment...
I was just thinking of all those on this blog who said that Windows Phone was the only solution for Nokia... and they went on and on and on just repeating the same BS all the time...
No, I don't care that we were right and they were wrong. Because the tragedy of what happened to Nokia is immense and will continue to haunt Finland for years to come.
Bravo Ballmer. Bravo Elop the Trojan Horse mercenary.

The comments to this entry are closed.

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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