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April 19, 2016


Per "wertigon" Ekström


Yes there is.

There is also an easily available method to pick locks. It's called lockpicking.

You not recognizing lockpicking as "easily available" is another matter entirerly.

Per "wertigon" Ekström


And FYI, just search Youtube. Tonnes of ways of how to break into iPhone if you look. :)

Per "wertigon" Ekström


Reverse engineering is not cost-effective for a single device.

It is however cost effective if that reverse engineering then means millions of devices can be compromised.

Reverse engineering only has to be done once, by a single person. If that person then finds that by soldering a wire between two pins, one can short-circuit the entire process... That is very cost effective indeed.

So, again - Apple security does not protect against organized crime.

Per "wertigon" Ekström


I am talking a grander scale here.

Let's ponder 100 000 iPhones are stolen, yearly. Let's say 95% of these are stolen by some sort of an organized thieves gang, and the rest are thieves too stupid to realise iPhones need some effort to break into.

These gangs will have an expert or have bought instructions on the black market from someone who has cracked the iPhone. It is already reverse engineered it. That took maybe 2 months to do.

With this reverse engineering effort these 100 000 iPhones can be decoupled soldering two wires at specific places. The data on the phone might be lost but these people don't care about the data - they just want the phone to work so they can sell it to some poor schmuck. If it stops working after three days they don't care.

Don't you think the thievery gang *will* do exactly that? Furthermore, if this proves too difficult - don't you think the thievery gang will take 2-3 months to develop a $5 IC component that makes the phone work for the time it has to?

So while you might be right about one specific detail - again - you're completely wrong about the big picture.

And that's the thing about you. You keep harping on about how I'm wrong on a minor detail. So maybe I am.

But you're wrong on the big picture, and that's what matters. :)


As per the Microsoft quarterly report, they are suffering from high inventory in mobile.

Websites covering (what is left of) Microsoft are speculating about an imminent fire sale of Lumia Phones: Buy one 950XL get one 950 free.

If that will be sufficient to clear inventory remains to be seen.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Wayne: There is one upside atleast. Once at the bottom there is no way but up... ;)


Symbian feels significantly lowballed. I had access to one of east European operators handset statistics last year, still there was around 10% of the user base on Symbian. So only this one small country will give you few hundred thousands.

Also, isn't DOCOMO still shipping Symbian phones even now, to the tune of 2M yearly?

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

On the Apple results out soon. This will again be time for ridiculous hysteria. Apple is the most profitable company in the human economic history. It is central to the fastest-growing giant industry of the planet. It has the highest loyalty of any of its direct rivals. It has nothing but a long strong profitable future ahead of it.

BUt there was over-expectation built into Apple shareholder minds, that somehow Apple was beyond logic and reason and normal rules of business did not apply. Those silly illusions will START to get shattered today. It is VERY likely that Apple will continue to 'disappoint' the EXPECTATIONS for many of the coming quarters (while sometimes exceeding them) and THAT discrepancy - because the expectations were utterly unrealistic - mean that some who held on the stock for a long time - will lose faith now - because of the stupid reporting that we will no doubt see - and then the REALITY of the company is ignored as its share price is likely to go down.

Now notice how much I broke all the rules on this blog. I spoke about profits, and specifically their size - AND i spoke about Wall Street speculation. So no, you do NOT now have permission to do the same. I wrote this here for you, to underestand the CONTEXT of what will be coming - as the financial press - hysterial little ignorant children - will have a collective kinnuption-fit. And then the iSheep will panic - not all of them - but enough of them that the decline will start.

How long will that last, it won't last forever, because its CERTAIN that the next iPhone 7 will sell well. It will be very profitable. The 5SE will add to the total sales and help gain market share this year. The bad news is not what seemed to be perennial with Nokia (in a similar situation from a more modest initial position obviously 'only' as the most successful handset maker around year 2005) partly because of the economic downturn - which still Nokia did better than ANY of its rivals. We are VERY likely to have another recession within the next 12-18 months - that would ALSO hurt Apple TOTAL sales but not its market share. It would likely damage the OTHER parts of Apple's business FAR MORE than the iPhone business, meaning Apple could see worse performance due to the OTHER divisions rather than iPhone itself (again like Nokia where it bad results were at the networking side not handset side)

So. I wanted to post the warning of the hysteria. Remind everybody that I love Apple and am certain Apple will be having a good growth year this year, plus GAIN market share, and will finish this calendar year again as the most profitable company on the planet, powered much by the iPhone 7 and the resulting surge in sales for Q4 Christmas quarter. I am NOT AT ALL a pessimist agreeing with what I expect to be hysterical analysis from the Wall Street mob.

That said - you are NOT allowed to discuss Apple profits or share price here. The above was a warning on what to expect in the Apple analysis tone today and tomorrow, not an open invitation for us to start to debate daily share prices..

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Abdul Muis


How much damage do you think of China blocking iTunes Movie & iBook?


What's interesting with Apple is that while revenue (and particularly the projected revenue) missed estimates, the unit sales actually beat (51.2 million vs 50.0 million). Tim Cook told the WSJ that the revenue projections missed estimates in part because the iPhone SE will negatively affect ARPU. So it seems that Apple is not immune to the saturation of the market, after all. However, their drop in market share may not be as bad as what Tomi expected.


By "drop" I am referring to Tomi's 2015 predictions, not his post from 2 hours ago.


@Tomi, you are unusually optimistic about Apple and the iPhone 7. Have you seen Kuo Ming-Chi's report that the iPhone 7 might not be such an attractive update? The rumor is that development delays might force only a modest refresh and that the bigger update is now coming in 2017 (meaning they don't see a huge uptake). That could make 2016 for Apple like Samsung's 2014/2015.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

So, iPhone Q1 results - 51.2M.

We all knew there would be a drop. I had predicted around 54-55M so worse than my model. This includes the iPhone SE.

So, it seems the rumblings about iPhone 6 being a spike was true after all. :)

And no, Apple is not doomed in any way shape or form for atleast 10 years - but iPhone moving average will end up at maybe as low as 15%. We'll know once Tomi reports the total Q1 numbers right? :)

Tomi T Ahonen

To all

iPhone Q1 Jan-March quarter 51.1M units = about 14.3% market share. Will blog of course and we can take discussion there

Tomi Ahonen :-)

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