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« Grab Bag of Misc Mobile Stats for the Day | Main | Exactly How Much Does It Cost in Electricity To Keep Our Mobile Addiction Going »

April 02, 2016

Comments

cornelius

@Wayne
Is that buying of delegates a fact or is it just a rumor? Because if it is not true then it may push the remaining noncommitted super-delegates even more into Clinton's camp.

Wayne Borean


@cornelius,

The money deal with the state delegations seems well documented, as does the super delegates of several Bernie states continuing to support Hillary. So yes, it does look like they were bought and paid for.

Wayne Borean


LOL. Decided to waste Sunday. Started reading Bloom County 2015 from the start on GoComics.

End result?

My stomach hurts like hell from all of the laughing. The Opus/Bill Presidential Campaign slogan is pure genius.

Winter

Slow times, let's look at what The Onion has to say:

Shimmering Immaculate Republican Candidate Appears Before GOP Officials
‘It’s Him,’ Stunned Conservative Leaders Mutter
http://www.theonion.com/article/shimmering-immaculate-republican-candidate-appears-52710

winter

Trump is reorganizing his campaign

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/trump-seeks-reshape-campaign-wisconsin-loss-38301979

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi all

Ok. So the plan by DC Madam sleazy ex-attorney is... tease the story out, to the max. He just released today a list of the organizations involved in the 815 names.. no names yet. So if this goes by the rationale of biggest catch last, we should see junior level near-nobodies first, moderate names later, a few huge names just before the grand prize and then should be the Cruizer last.

I would think this adds to the pressure on Mr Ted. I bet some of his advisors are saying - take the plunge now and eat the damage, you can't win New York state anyway.. IF he can be thought to survive past the story... (am not at all sure he can, even with full apologies and assurances he's been faitful during his marriage etc etc)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi all

It seems weird not to get national polling on the GOP race for almost 2 weeks as we had so much of it for so long, and recently we've seen the big Trump drop in popularity. So how is the race now?

Reuters daily tracking poll is our best thermometer and it tells an interesting story. In Trump's 11 days of destruction, his Reuters daily tracking poll number (which is last 5 day rolling average) left a 3-day peak of 48% and dived to 33%, his lowest in six weeks. At the same time, Cruz climbed to the top of the poll for the first time and hit a peak Cruz level of 46% for one day. But the polling gods giveth, and the polling gods taketh away..

After Trump went into his media hideout, his polling recovered. They recovered FASTER than the rate of decline when Trump was wrecking his own support. Trump has had 6 days of continuous growth in the Reuters daily tracking poll number, in just 2 days he returned to higher numbers than Cruz, and today Trump is at back to 45% (and poll trend is still up, he's only 3 points below is all-time peak of 48%).

First, Kasich has been on a dead brainwave pattern sitting on 20%. The ups and downs of Trump or Cruz have had zero effect on Kasich. He has been sitting around 20% for three weeks, plus minus a few points. Then Trump and Cruz - they are almost perfectly mirroring each other, when one loses its the other who gains - this means those in the middle are truly selecting between Trump and Cruz - their overlap voters - and while they seem to have a preference of Trump over Cruz by about 5 to 10 points - they get disappointed when Trump pulls his outrageous stunts and then flock to Cruz for a moment, but as Trump quiets down, they return to Trump again.

So first, back to my original thesis and that of so many other pundits (some who have abandoned the idea) - it seems that Trump does have a solid ceiling. He can bump his head at the ceiling, he can drop from it (where he also has a solid floor he can't all below) but he can't breach that ceiling.

Secondly the non-Trump non-Cruz gang seems to be 20% and they have settled on Kasich and are ignoring the two children bickering on the playground. But that race between Cruz and Trump - Cruz has gradually won over an ever slightly-growing slice, taking a few points more every month. It was mostly consolidating the support of those who quit the race or who were undecided but if Trump has about a 40% ceiling (Reuters daily tracking poll has consistently been well above that number) and Kasich takes 20%, and some percent are undecided, then mathematically Cruz can never beat Trump. Cruz NEEDS for Trump to be forced below his ceiling. And it seems that the anti-Trump ads and surrogates and campaign isn't really doing it. The only way Trump can be brought under his ceiling of 40% is - by Trump doing his gaffes - and he needs to do many of them. THAT requires Trump to be Trump and whatever his campaign re-set has achieved in the past days - it MUST be that someone got through to Trump's brain, that he has to stop the gaffe-machine that has been so entertaining.

So its DISCIPLINE. If Trump can install discipline - he can 'easily' now capitalize on the full support of his total base. Just don't alienate it now. That means, Trump could have a strong finish towards the Convention - and if he outperforms in the last races - this being Republican race with its winner-take-all rules in most states or most districts - Trump could still clinch it by June 7. Its not the most likely scenario but he could do it, well within his chances still. Can Trump be 'silenced' and off-Twitter for two months? If he really wants it (to try to be President/to become the Republican nominee for President) and if his 'I am very smart' brain has finally digested that Trump behavior was damaging Trump - he could adjust his behavior and stop being that entertaining buffoon we've seen, but rather hide from the media, be more muted at his rallies, install discipline to his campaign - and take the nomination on June 7.

In that way the race is in Trump's control and out of Cruz's control. That is of course ignoring the time bomb of the DC Madam haha...

And Paul Ryan. What's with HIS releasing videos of how Presidential he is? Ryan really wants the nomination at the Convention - and it smells of Dick Cheneyan shenanigan that the nomination Convention will be chaired by Ryan going in, that it is likely to be contested. Ryan is totally running for the nomination now and he must be seen at least as strong a dark horse to win the nomination as Kasich. Now, imagine if Ryan's spies have discovered that Cruz truly is on the DC Madam list - then as long as the party can prevent Trump from taking the nomination, if its down to Kasich who hasn't won anything other than his own state (or Rubio who dropped out long ago) then suddenly Ryan is as good a candidate as any.. He is SO running for it now.

PS how difficult would the short race to November be for Republicans if first Trump ruins what remained of the brand of Republicans; then Cruz the hated outsider is reluctantly embraced by most in the party who then turns out to be a sex scandal; then the contest in Cleveland is nasty with angry mobs of Trumpsters; and then the SOLUTION is the Speaker of the House - the most hated part of Government - by the most hated party - who himself is stuck with a long litany of nasty votes and proposals against the nation, simply confirming that the Republicans are a party for rich white men of privilege. Its different if Ryan had been running the last year a post-Boehner era period of compromise and sense on Capitol Hill but not the way he's been, pandering to the Tea Party haha. On he other hand, a compromiser could not unify the angry Republican base well represented at the Convention recruited by the effective Cruz campaign, augmented by the loud but smaller Trump gang also at the Convention.

But after the months of Trumpisms the past few days have seemed dull haha.. Essentially only Trump whining about how the rules are against him (while his kids couldn't be bothered to register to vote for dad, what commitment and obviously 'competence' in that family haha)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

So thinking beyond 2016..

If Trump takes the nomination by June 7 or in the interim days to the Convention and wins on the first ballot, he's obviously going to be the candidate to be devastated in the general election and his type of politics will be seen as pretty close to 'inherently bad' for at least a few election cycles, possibly for several generations. Trump himself would be the most visible celebrity in the world during the month of October, and then be a pariah from after his election loss. It would be just about the most cruel fate that could befall the guy who so loves and craves the attention and whose name would instantly be associated with literally the opposite of what he's been building his whole life. Instead of winner, he'd be the biggest loser.

(Obviously personally, looking at his farce of a candidacy, I'd love nothing more than this)

But if he doesn't win it on the first ballot, Trump isn't going to be the nominee. If its anyone else (and I mean anyone, not just Cruz, Kasich, Rubio, Romney and Ryan) then Trump would emerge as a radical outsider Robin Hood type of hero, who was robbed, and he'd have his reputation especially among the many millions who do adore him, and Trump would forever be guaranteed a big visible media role in the future of Tea Party and whatever splintering groups might emerge from the 2016 election drubbing that did not have Trump on top. Trump can easily say, they threw a clear victory away by not nominating him, that only Trump could have stopped Hillary, any moron can see that the way the Republicans did it at the crooked Convention meant they would lose. And as long as he never again ran, he'd have a prominent role into the perpetual future, in a kind of male-version of Sarah Palin if you will. No matter what he said he'd still be welcomed on some conservative talk shows and therefore, he'd also get to continue to spew his brand of hatred and perpetuate the hate-wing of the Republican Party or whatever might come out of a possible Tea Party splinter group. Trump losing at the Convention would not brand Trump a loser, it would later brand him as the betrayed savior, who could have saved the party (as the Senate flips, Hillary coasts to big victory in any case, and the 2017 Supreme Court starts to issue various rulings on its fresh liberal balance after four decades of conservative rulings). Because Trump has taken so many (contradictory) positions on just about anything, he'll also be a highly popular talk show guest then - as a counter-balance whenever Hillary and the Democrats bring about their legislative agenda - So Mr Trump what do you think of this idea - and he'll be so bitter, he'll make John McCain in the Senate after losing to Obama and leading the obstruction there - seem like your loving grandpa.

So for Trump its one of extreme fates, either zero or hero. He can never become President but his future makes him either an untouchable or the most popular anti-Hillary commentator of all the politicos. Obviously if Trump has the life after 2016, he will forever tease future Presidential runs which he then won't actually do. Its like the opposite of Romney who says no, he won't do another run and then keeps trying to run again, Trump will keep saying how great he'd be and he's thinking of running again in 2020 or 2024 etc - but then he never again joins the race for real - because he will know fully well, the next time he'd be fried on the first months because of all the baggage and the unused oppo research that all will have about him, leftovers of 2016 (with the added hindsight of how ludicrous the statements were at the time, when viewed 4 or 8 years later).

(will do Cruz next)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Next on Cruz

Now what of Cruz? He is poised to win the nomination on the second, third or latest fourth ballot, assuming Trump doesn't clear 1,237 on the first ballot. Its Cruz's nomination then by default, it won't go to Kasich. Cruz's campaign has worked brilliantly to prepare for this scenario and the cards are falling into place that Trump seems to be ending a hundred or so delegates short going into the first ballot (and again, remembering, Trump would have six weeks to get Kasich to agree to be his VP and he could very well get to that, or if not Kasich, then Rubio..)

So it could/would/should then be Cruz. Except for the DC Madam story. And that complicates everything and is that wonderful monkey wrench to make it all incredibly unpredictable. So first, if no DC Madam. Trump could win it on the first ballot, Cruz comes a clear second obviously but far behind. Cruz becomes the de-facto front-runner for 2020 but obviously Cruz won't be the VP in 2016. Except for possible DC Madam revellations LATER after the Convention, Cruz would be the clear front-runner for 2020, as Trump crashes and burns with his contest with Hillary. Cruz will be highly popular on TV telling how they should have nominated a genuine conservative of real convictions..

If the DC Madam story doesn't break and Trump doesn't get the nomination, Cruz takes it on the later ballots at the Convention, then Cruz becomes the nominee. He might even in public offer Trump the VP slot (to try to woo his supporters but knowing Trump will not accept that humiliation) and then Cruz would set in play, his surprisingly well-organized general election campaign, probably pick Kasich as his VP, and go to lose by 20 points to Hillary. Cruz's future political fate is the unmentionable with no hope ever of any redemption. The idea that selecting a pure conservative will be debunked and the Republican party can start its healing process to get rid of the Tea Party extremist views if not even many of their politicians.

Note a Cruz 20 point loss to Hillary is before any sabotage work by Trump himself. Just on Cruz's net unelectability in a general election (even unelectability in the Republican party if it was a two-man race Cruz against anyone less extreme ie non-Trump). Its clear some of Trump's supporters would hate Cruz and many of the party loyalists and supporters would not support Cruz's 2016 run and some moderates especially around national security matters would openly support Hillary instead. But if Trump campaigned against Cruz for the general election - could be as severe as running as an Independent (often as a write-in candidate) or leading a break with the party - to just endorsing Hillary instead of Cruz - to just bickering about every move made by Cruz during the autumn campaign on news talk shows - Trump could be the most sore loser we'd ever seen - and remember he can only lose the nomination through the humiliation of the Convention welcoming Trump with the most delegates, then Ryan and Cruz 'conspiring' to deny Trump the nomination in later votes after the first vote. He would be royally pissed off in any case.

I cannot see a non-DC-Madam scenario, where Trump doesn't win on the first ballot - that then Cruz would not be the nominee. Kasich or anyone else, cannot come in from so far behind and somehow overtake Cruz, especially as Cruz has worked so well at specifically this scenario for the Convention. But if somehow that happened - say Kasich just catches fire now in the last contests in 'blue states' of the NorthEast and California etc - and Kasich emerges as a clear favorite of the moderate wing, and perhaps Cruz otherwise stumbles in the home stretch, then yes. It could be that Kasich steals the victory from what is now a distant fourth place in the delegate hunt (still behind even Rubio today).

Now this has been the year of the unbelievable, so why not. Kasich could maybe then emerge as the preferred candidate, where Trump delegates quickly diminish, Cruz approaches but doesn't get to 1,237 either by the say third, fourth ballots, then suddenly Kasich and the various party 'elders' and activists and grass roots and supporters and fund-raisers would say - come on, Kasich has a far better chance in the general election than Cruz - and he could win it, from say the 8th ballot on haha...

The vitriol between the two front-runners Trump and Cruz could easily get so bad, that supporters of either could say - never him, but I'll go with Kasich instead.. Its plausible that Cruz has a brief moment of rising glory on the second, third and fourth ballots, then to see it slip away between his fingers (and onto Kasich, or even another nominee if it goes say past 10 ballots of essentially deadlock). Then both Trump and Cruz would escape the fate of being pummeled by Hillary and would have a career in politics beyond 2016 (as long as no DC Madam scenario). But what would happen to the Convention and party if Trump with the most delegates won (and most votes cast) doesn't get it, and Cruz with the second most delegates & votes - but also with the best grass-roots Convention delegate support - doesn't win it either. And both Trump and Cruz have far more vocal and passionate supporters than the rest of the party? There would not just be riots and a split in the party, there could be a live-time TV spectacle of Trump and Cruz supporters storming the stage, threatening Paul Ryan, and literally taking over the party. They could insist that THEY are the Republican party, and its Paul Ryan and Reince Priebus and Mitch McConnell etc who have to depart the Convention and leave it to them. Can you imagine a truly hostile take-over of the floor of the Convention that has majority Cruz supporters, plus next most vocal, a loud Trump constituency who would find common cause with Cruz, against the evil party leadership who just stole the nomination from their guy? How would Trump behave? This could literally split the party with either side storming out of the convention all in Cleveland and then various states would have to figure out - WHO has the rights to the nominee of the Republican party of that state? It could even be that the formal party bosses and moderates nominate Kasich as their official candidate, but the Cruz people - grassroots and most delegates - nominate Cruz, AND the Trump people claim ALSO to be the Republican party, and they nominate Trump haha. Then take this to a deadlocked Supreme Court 4-to-4 in judges, who can't decide. And depending on which state it was, in November the 'Republican' candidate might be Cruz, or Kasich, or Trump - or any two or all three, with or without the R beside their names haha. Gosh it would be a hoot.

But if there is a Tea Party vs GOP split, then the obvious real leader of the Tea Party would become Ted Cruz. And nobody would receive a life-time branding of a total loser, because the narrative would immediately become that the 'other guys' destroyed 'their' chance of winning in 2016, Tea Party and traditional Republicans blaming each other.

Now, if the DC Madam story breaks before Cleveland, then I do think Cruz cannot win the nomination. Then its possible Trump wins it even on second or third ballots but no matter how much Cruz is clever at the delegate math, he can't overcome a sex scandal and take the nomination. Then if its not Trump, it goes to Kasich. But with the DC Madam story, Trump could have plenty of life past the first ballot and Trump could emerge as the nominee by no later than the fourth ballot. If it goes beyond that, Kasich would gradually win enough of the non-Trump support to get it. Now, if Cruz is played out of the race by the DC Madam story, it means he didn't become the nominee and Cruz was spared the excommunication from the Republican party out of losing by 20 points to Hillary. Politicians with sex scandals do get second chances if they repent and obviously Cruz would repent tons and beg forgiveness. He might be good enough to run in 2020 but couldn't win it then. He also probably would not survive a re-election to the Senate out of Texas if he has a sex scandal hanging over his head, regardless of how much he repented. Almost all of his Senate fellow Republicans would privately smile broadly to that lost seat, even as it would further damage the minority they would have in the Senate against the Democrats.

(will do others next)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

And what of the others

Kasich. He can't get to 1,237 before Cleveland, he is mathematically out of it, and his only hope is a splintered vote at the Convention where neither Trump nor Cruz can get to the magic number in the early votes and Kasich could start to pick up his rise from say the fourth ballot onwards. It could take ten votes, it could go all into the night; it could even be undecided after one day of voting and they continue the next day. But if Trump doesn't get it on the first ballot, he's not going to be the nominee. If Cruz cannot take it by the fifth ballot - when all delegates are unbound and we have seen how many Cruz was able to seat into the various delegations from the states - then Cruz is not going to be it either. Then its either Kasich or someone else.

Kasich has played all along the Mr Nice Guy routine and it will THEN help at that stage. He has consistently polled best against Hillary in head-to-head contests compared to Trump or Cruz - that will help gradually convert some who understand their primary choice cannot become the nominee and don't want the main rival to become it either. And Kasich would emerge as a compromise candidate. This could even happen as early as the fourth ballot but I think if Cruz can't take it by the fourth ballot, then its a SLOW process for Kasich to climb and it would go to say 8th or 10th vote before Kasich could get to above 1,237.

Kasich would lose to Hillary too, only not by as much. Kasich seems like a moderate when compared to Cruz or Trump (or Dr Carson or Rubio or Scott Walker or Mike Huckabee or Rick Santorum etc) but he is still a conservative, not moderate Republican. The difference between Kasich and most other conservatives this year, is that Kasich is a realist and he sees that some of the very divisive and hateful positions and rhetoric of the party is simply childish and stupid. He no doubt sees it as the obstinate party reaction to Obama as President and Kasich is smart enough to see that Obama would have been the ideal Democratic President for his time when he was in Congress, compared to say Bill Clinton.

Kasich emerging as the compromise after many rounds of votes at the Convention would alienate many Trump and Cruz supporters, not all of them but some of them. Those who would rally to his battle cry would do so reluctantly. The campaign would not be rich with cash, not rich with volunteer support and as it emerged that on many positions Kasich is yes, very conservative and thus out-of-tune with the mainstream electorate, Kasich would see his numbers also tank fast. He is not an inspiring speaker who can rally his troops like say a Reagan and the Convention will be half done by the time he is nominated, there won't be much left to try to fix rifts, by many grass roots Republicans who will feel they were betrayed or defrauded. That campaign will lose and Kasich will lose the Senate in that campaign too but possibly not the House (although Democrats would pick up many seats). In this case, Kasich would not be considered the total loser, he'd get most of the establishment singing his praises that he made the best of what was wrecked by Trump and Cruz, but still, Kasich would be a 'typical' losing Presidential candidate, so look at the political lives of say Al Gore, John Kerry, John McCain and Mitt Romney. He'd be out of the spotlight for a while, licking his wounds, but he'd have a future as a party elder, but he'd never get to run again.

So Paul Ryan? He is saying ever more emphatically that he is not going to run for President. Yet he clearly wants to and he is clearly planning for that possibility. He knows he cannot become the nominee - UNLESS the Convention is deadlocked past the fourth ballot. So only if Trump can't win it, and Cruz can't win it, only then can Ryan become an alternative to consider between Kasich, Rubio, Romney and anyone else suddenly wanting to be the savior of the party (Scott Walker, Carly Fiorina, Rick Perry, Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, Lindsay Graham, Nicki Haley, Condi Rice, Sarah Palin.. the list is almost endless)

But also IF the Convention is undecided after the fifth ballot - then a growing chorus will beg Ryan to throw his hat in the race. He knows that chorus will come. The more he insists he doesn't want it, the more they will come. The biggest threat to Kasich is not Rubio or Romney, its Ryan. If Trump and Cruz are out of it for whatever reasons, DC Madam or not - then the race is between Kasich and Ryan. And THEN one has to remember, Ryan is the chairman of the Convention. He can tip the scales to HIS advantage. He is the ultimate insider at the time when the insiders have the most control - the actual Convention. And Ryan is like Hillary in that way, that both have worked relentlessly to be acceptable to everyone in the party and having the support of everybody within the party (establishment). Kasich will be tainted by all the states he did not win, and by his lack of national name recognition and how boring he sounds. Now compare to Ryan who had this run already trialed once with Mitt Romney in 2012 - he would be a formidable rival to Ryan - and probably more ACCEPTABLE to Cruz and Trump supporters, if they see their man can't win it. Ryan could well become the nominee ahead of Kasich. We could see an interesting voting pattern with four peaks - first Trump on the first ballot, then Trump starts to fall and Cruz rises, tries to get to 1,237 but falls short - and then falls to see Kasich rise, get ahead of Trump and Cruz, but again fail to get to 1,237 until finally Ryan joins and rises to take the nomination.

Paul Ryan would also lose to Hillary but I think with the least damage. He is more inspiring as a speaker than Kasich. They are about as conservative. But Ryan is far younger and better looking. He could easily pull some legislative stunts to help him - and the Republicans - for the general election. Ryan would have a far easier time raising money and getting committed party support. He still would not win over all Trump or Cruz supporters - some who would definitely believe this was a conspiracy and thus with so little time, Ryan could not mount a great campaign for the Autumn. And he'd be stuck with a lot of the baggage of not just the Republican party bad image but also the bad image of Congress. He could pick Kasich as his VP but probably would pick someone from the outside (imagine Nikki Haley, Condi Rice, Kelly Ayotte, Jan Brewer). Still, Ryan would lose. But Ryan will most definitely be seen as having done the best of a bad situation, he'd only strengthen his hand to be YET AGAIN a front-runner in the early speculation for 2020.

Can anyone else win it? Its actually possible that Ryan will not ever actually put his hat in the ring, just waiting to be literally the last candidate, and someone else goes in before Ryan to then get the nomination. Rubio could be it, Romney could be it; or some very very dark horse but sudden emergency 'white knight' savior could be it - but I think that person would be outside the current field of gossip. So not Christie or Walker or Graham or Fiorina. Nobody who ran this time or who seems to be angling for it like Romney, Palin or Newt. So then a real real dark horse - Jon Huntsman, Morning Joe Scarborough, Condi Rice, Colin Powell, Nikki Haley - or someone outside politics like an actor or athlete or military person or business leader. Remember this scenario won't even start to play out until Trump and Cruz and Kasich are all locking each other out (and then the Convention will of course change the rule saying that you had to have won 8 states, by then they'll accept any compromise and open the nomination to anyone). The person would need to have near-universal appeal from the floor meaning almost certainly that there isn't bad blood and the nominated person should be seen as pure and not tainted by the game-playing up to that point. It won't be Romney haha, he wants it way too desperately.

This white knight savior of the party would not have been vetted in the press for a year, and there are likely to be all sorts of skeletons that will come out but the good part would be that most of Hillary's oppo research prep would be out the window and almost definitely that nominee would be a moderate who could distance his/her run from the nasty Trump-Cruz vitriol of the past year. He or she would lose to Hillary but note - there would be a honeymoon period with the new nominee (And the VP pick) where only the good parts are seen and discussed and the bad parts are not yet visible or discovered - much like a first date. So the polling could easily have this new savior polling ahead of Hillary for a while, until the reality set in. That person has no organization built, the fund-raising would have to start from zero, there was no platform or plan to coordinate with fellow Republicans and much of the Autumn would be spent just introducing the pair to the nation - with inevitable gaffes - plus most likely that candidate would be far out of his/her league on some matters needing to spend masses of time just reading up and prepping for the debates - which Hillary's team will insist must be done early, not late, in the campaign season.

But it would be the ultimate last twist in this unbelievable race. If things went really well, the race could turn out to be close (but the Democrats will win simply because of the dual surge waves of the female vote and the Hispanic vote). This candidate could be seen as the hero who really came close and would be the de-facto party leader and front-runner for 2020.

Thats how I see it from mid April..

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

So the Electoral College projections are starting to come in. Morning Consult has done their first projection now for the November election comparing Hillary to Trump, Cruz and Kasich. Their model is based on 44,000 voter interviews during the past four months and is based on head-to-head interviews for the results of each state.

They find that the Trump-Hillary race would be a clear victory for Hillary, but not the 20 point election I expect nor even the 10 point race we were seeing by the previous projection, Morning Consult measured it as roughly a 5 point win - still significant - about the same as Obama won against Romney. Hillary carries all of Obama's 2012 states except Maine which Trump would be able to pick up more than in Romney's loss. Still, this is now the second major analyst to make a November election projection based on the Electoral College and obviously it would not be anywhere near close with Trump.

They also tested Hillary against Cruz and Kasich. Cruz loses about the same as Trump (actually loses slightly more) but essentially the same map as Romney loss in 2012. Kasich, however wins. Its a razor-thin race but mostly powered by his home-state Ohio win they also give him Pennsylvania and then a smattering of other states and its a close call.

I'm curious to see if any major analyst gives an Electoral College win scenario as their projection before the Convention for either Trump or Cruz haha. And Kasich, if he were to become the nominee - then he'd face far more scrutiny and the full press from Hillary and Democrats, his image now is an illusion because he is he least cooky of the nutty party haha. But I do agree definitely that of the three, Kasich would do best against Hillary. Its funny to see, Cruz doing worst. I wasn't quite expecting that, I thought he'd be roughly on par with Trump but that Trump would be the most toxic candidate ever to run and thus would fail more. Unfortunately we'll never get to measure that difference, at best its one or the other.

Now just as a pundit on those numbers. If Trump or Cruz can keep it to a 5% race against Hillary, then the House is safe and the Senate would only be 'in play' and not definite to flip to the Democrats. I am certain that the reality with either is FAR worse than 5 points, like I've said Trump would go down in 20 point disaster and Cruz might be of the scale of 18 points. But yes, if either is the nominee and if Hillary's general election is as much the under-performing as she's done in the Democratic race this time around (compared to 2008 when she had the fire in her belly) and its only a 5 point race - then yes, the Republicans might even barely hold onto the Senate.

One caveat, the Morning Consult report mentions that they based their interviews on Registered Voters not Likely Voters (those give different results as we know) and I interpret that as meaning - they have totally ignored both the rare surge voting of women and Hispanic voters (boosting Democratic turnout) and obviously they could not model in any disgruntled voters angry after a Cleveland result where either Trump or Cruz voters are going to be angry (if not both) which would suppress Republican turnout. If those two factors were entered into their model, that 5 point election projection could easily be a 15 point disaster to either Trump or Cruz haha (and a 5 point loss to Kasich, at least).

Still.. like I said, expect these projections to come - and this is where 'the rubber meets the road' - this is what real politicos take 'seriously' and will have nightmares now considering the choice between Trump and Cruz haha.

PS did you notice, several Democrats have started already to warn, don't get too over-confident. They are worried Democrats sit it out, confident that they'll win by a landslide anyway haha (remembering no doubt the over-confidence with the Al Gore campaign going into the last weeks of that race)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Wayne Borean


@Tomi,

Talking about Democrats...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/h-a-goodman/sanders-become-democratic-nominee-even-if-clinton-leads-in-delegates_b_9657952.html

Winer

@Wayne
"alking about Democrats..."

So the Democrats envy the Republicans and want to lose badly too?

Talk about snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

Wayne Borean


@Winer

That's the same thing they said about Obama in 2008.

Winter

@Wayne
"That's the same thing they said about Obama in 2008."

That is a very bad argument. It is the same argument the (Tea Party) Republicans use to push a "real conservative" pointing out Reagan.

If the Democrats think old white left wing Bernie is like young black moderate Barack, they are wrong. Maybe Bernie can win the elections, but then for totally different reasons than Barack did.

Wayne Borean


That was my point, that both candidates weren't Establishment candidates, but because of grass roots support Obama became President. It appears the same thing might happen with Sanders.

This is a good thing.

Wayne Borean


Nancy Pelosi says a brokered convention will cause the GOP to implode.

http://thehill.com/homenews/house/276321-pelosi-predicts-gop-doom-if-trump-toppled

Tomi T Ahonen

hi everybody

Just a warning... the recent numbers look WAY better for Trump than what I expected around this time. You'd think if there are only 3 candidates left, the two non-Trumps would be the strongest of the very broad field.. Cruz had underperformed in his best states and is somewhat under what I expected. Trump has also not performed to what the polls suggested in January but not by much, he is near to where he should have been. Its the THIRD dude who is a total dud. I thought it would be either Jeb or Rubio last year, and by January I had decided it was probably Rubio who would be the third man out, with a distant possibility for Christie or Kasich. Instead its Kasich. And has he 'earned' that position - no. He hasn't won anything other than his home state and he's doing miserably in the remaining states in terms of polling right now.

So now it looks like Trump could take something around 80 to 85 delegates out of the 95 on hand from New York on Tuesday. I thought he'd take 61. That means that Trump would claw back a significant part of his gap to what I originally projected and Trump would be at about 49% of all delegates awarded up to now (after NY) vs 51% when I made my projection. And then the next states to vote all also seem to favor Trump very well, where I thought the NorthEastern states would be divided somewhat where Rubio could take one or two, Cruz take one, and Trump take the rest. Now it looks like Trump will win all or most, and get the vast majority of the delegates available - again, more than I projected.

It looks now - not because Trump is particularly strong or having a surge - but because Kasich is way weaker than what I expected the number 3 guy (expecting it to be Rubio) to be, that Trump will be back on the exact 'glide path' to clinching the nomination on June 7. Lets say yip-pee for how Trump's sorry life in politics will end, but also would seem the hope of a contested Convention is not going to be.

Note one other thing, the math says Cruz will be eliminated after New York unless he has a miracle and amazing wins of lots of those delegates. He'd be mathematically eliminated from any chance of reaching 1,237 delegates now, one round before I thought he'd be (I thought he'd be eliminated after April 26). I think that will also suppress the enthusiasm for Cruz in the last races where 'lets have the other guy lose' is a far less compelling argument than 'help me win' haha.

The race will go to June 7, but the way the current polling is, I do think Trump will get back on track to be rather safe to clinch 1,237 delegates by June 7. Then three things happen - first the 'second ballot' shenanigans will become irrelevant and Cruz simply cannot snatch that from Trump (also means DC Madam story becomes less meaningful). Secondly, Trump will have six weeks of time to help heal the party and build consensus to his cause and start a whirlwind attack mission against Hillary - probably the dirtiest campaign ever seen - which should get most of the party to rally behind Trump. And third, it means we'll get to see his magical VP choice - and judging by all the names he's mentioned recently - its likely there IS no magic bullet candidate, that he's seriously gonna consider Christie, Walker, Kasich etc.

That all being said, this is now the best stretch for Trump. He is SUPPOSED to do well here, in the NorthEast and after that there are again some states where Cruz can put up serious resistance and its quite possible, if Cruz has a strong ground-game in California, that Cruz can just keep Trump from the magic number and he'd get to say 1,200 delegates or so, after it all is done on June 7. To start that, Cruz needs to pick up at least a few delegates out of New York and hope Trump stays well below 80 delegates.

We'll see on Wednesday, but I wanted to bring this to you guys, that the current math shows Trump at far stronger lead in these states that will still vote in April, better than I thought. This is where the non-Cruz non-Trump guy was supposed to be strong (Rubio/Jeb/Christie/Kasich) and Kasich at least so far, is not showing any signs he can collect any victories out of April. If Trump does sweep these states and take far most of the delegates then he's back to exactly on track to safely clinch on June 7.

And that - if you've read the GQ article speculating that Trump may be trying to sabotage his run because he needs a graceful exist where he can claim the victim martyr role - would mean Trump will be stuck with the nomination whether he wanted it or not. Could you imagine if Trump actually said at the Convention when he is nominated - no, actually i don't want it, give it to Ted, he's a better candidate haha...

As I've been pondering the two alternatives, would I rather see a contested Convention (which denies Trump) or see Trump nominated on the first ballot and then losing in epic scale to Hillary - I do want the latter for the simple reason - if Trump gets out at the Convention, he can forever claim he was robbed - and we'd hear his whining on TV for decades to come - with all the hatred that he'd be allowed to spew. But if he goes down in epic defeat in November, then he will be excommunicated from the media and we will be spared his nastyness evermore. It is my preferred option (but I won't cry if the nomination ends up not being decided on the first ballot haha).

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Wayne Borean


OK, so let's look at some numbers. Assuming Trump is the GOP candidate, and Clinton is the Dem candidate, the average has Clinton winning by 9.9

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

If Sanders is the Dem nominee running against Trump the average has him winning by 16.3!

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-5565.html

That's a huge gap. So even though a Ted Cruz looks unlikely to be the nominee, I looked at his numbers. Against Cruz, Clinton averages 3.4.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_cruz_vs_clinton-4034.html

Against Cruz, Sanders averages 11.2.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_cruz_vs_clinton-4034.html

This is scary stuff for the Republicans. Cruz might beat Clinton. Any other match up would be a disaster. But wait, Kasich is still in the game! Clinton vs Kasich is a 6.7 win,

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_kasich_vs_clinton-5162.html

Sanders vs. Kasich is a 3.3 win.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_kasich_vs_sanders-5817.html

At this point the leadership of both parties have to be a bit concerned. As long as Trump is the candidate, both of Dem candidates are winners. Against Cruz it is clear that Sanders has a big advantage. Against Kasich it is obvious that Clinton has a big advantage.

The Democrats want Trump. They want him badly, because if comes to a brokered convention they have a fifty-fifty chance of fielding the wrong candidate.

I was wondering why Nancy Pelosi spoke so bluntly about how a brokered convention would be a disaster for the Republicans. If your opponent is about to do something stupid, let them do it. It is to your advantage to let them engage in a fratricidal knife fight over who is the nominee!

Except when their choice of nominee at a brokered convention could derail your own campaign. Then you sing like a canary.

I'm with Tomi. I'd love to see a brokered convention. I think it would be wonderful, and I'd probably eat too much popcorn watching it.

But a brokered convention could be dangerous for the Democrats, so the party insiders don't want one. A fair number of Republicans would rather loose with Trump than take the chance of riots on the convention floor.

So it looks like we'll be disappointed. So will Orville Redenbacher!

Wayne Borean


This may sound like it is coming from left field, but bear with me,

Phyllis Schlafly is a conservative activist, who is against abortion, gay rights, green activists, and was behind the major opposition to the Equal Rights Amendment in the United States. She also was involved in the resistance to Nelson Rockerfeller being the Republican nominee in 1964, which lead to the Barry Goldwater debacle.

In simple terms, she makes Ted Cruz look positively sane.

Phyllis Schlafly has endorsed Donald Trump. A group of the directors of Eagle Forum were horrified by this, and have moved to remove her as the chair. They back Ted Cruz.

One of the rogue directors is her daughter.

Will this impact the GOP race? I don't know. Yet. But it shows the fracture lines in the party are big. Very big.

Rachel Maddow on Eagle Forum

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/schlafly-group-asunder-over-trump-endorsement-664763459824

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