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April 02, 2016


Tomi T Ahonen

Hi cornelius and Wayne

Thanks for the link cornelius

Wayne - good point about many strongly-religious voters yes, that repentance and forgiveness, we've seen it before haha. If he was currently continuing the habit (and he might, with some other escort service but those would typically be pretty tight-lipped about their clientelle haha) then his campaign would not survive. I forgot about the libertarians (haha like ME !!) yeah, many would say it doesn't matter one iota or well, perhaps some would say it was still illegal, but yeah the libertarian slice of Cruz's supporters probably would not quit him and provided that Cruz does a good story about his life conversion after he got married - he should hold to many of his religious supporters.

It would/should cause Cruz support which had been growing, to stop growing and likely to see erosion. Simultaneously Trump has been skipping, hopping and jumping from one gaffe to the next in the past two weeks, he should be seeing some erosion in his support. That means the only guy left to pick up any pieces is Kasich who can't win it outright, and who so far has not even won more than 1 state when 8 are needed by that rule 40B.

It is kind of funny when I look at the delegate race model I have, if Cruz can win in Wisconsin today, then if he now crashes but doesn't quit the race, and picks up only a handful of delegates towards the end of the race from some states - he'd not be far off from what I expected him to do in any case. As I've written, the strongest states for Cruz have all gone. In that case, his crisis would come at somewhat the 'optimal' time haha, once again Cruz is the luckiest man of this election cycle. Now he'd then have three months of time to repair the damage to his image to take the fight still to the Convention.

BUT while Cruz's supporters may stay with him - some no longer that vocally - he would have lost the lustre and I can't see Cruz picking up enough delegates to take the nomination - BUT that many will try to rally around Cruz now - to ensure Trump won't clinch. With a very cold calculation that Cruz needs to bring his delegate haul to Cleveland, where he prevents Trump from winning, and then a more moderate alternative can be selected by the Convention, either Kasich or Paul Ryan.

Trump supporters will be livid if they are denied in Cleveland. But Cruz's supporters, if he only finished a distant second anyway - and he would be the tarnished candidate - those supporters will reluctantly admit that yeah, Cruz has no chance in the general election.

Then the second and third ballot would be very interesting, where Cruz had been working so hard to seat as many of his supporters to each of the state delegations but that was before the DC Madam story (would have) broke(n). The second and third ballot could have wild swings of some party delegations going from Trump to Cruz, others going from Cruz to Trump all while Kasich tries to tell everybody that he is the obvious electable candidate..

Exciting times

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Wayne Borean


Some interesting polling numbers for you:

Wayne Borean


Talking about Ted Cruz, and weird American attitudes, do you remember the funeral of Francois Mitterrand? Both his wife and his MISTRESS publicly attended the funeral, and were seen commiserating with each other. In the USA that would be a horrible scandal. In most of the rest of the world, it wouldn't.

The USA is special all right. Specially weird.



Exactly! I remember when the republicans wanted to impeach Bill Clinton for the sexgate. Does Bill's private sexual life affect his ability to do a good job as president? OK, he lied. So what? Anyone would lie just like him in that situation. The guy is only human, not God.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

So I've been building this hypothesis that Trump is a stingy not-as-rich-as-he-claims cheapaskate who is running most of his campaign truly on the cheap and cutting corners.

Now we have some info on it. Politico has brand new story about mass layoffs in Trump's campaign done mostly out of incompetence not recognizing those staff are needed in the subsequent prep work to land the appropriate delegates after his wins (and to capture some even when he has lost). He's fired about half of the staff he's hired in early primary states plus Trump's bare-bones data mining operation has fired its boss and is now run by essentially by an intern. He has no polling, no strategy, no speech-writing etc staff - so even if Trump 'wanted' to pivot to a general-election campaign - he doesn't have any staff capable of doing that. Plus.. obviously, no fund-raising staff. Again, Trump is clearly unwilling to spend 100 million to win the nomination (and then 1 Billion to win the general election) and while he has had 9.5 million dollars in donations, he does need to ramp up fund-raising and needs to get Republican donors to come to him with money.. for that you need a staff who are good at it, and they need to do a lot of work. None of that is done and again, he doesn't even have that staff.

All this suggests to me, that this campaign is a house of cards, like a fake Trump building with fancy blueprints but no building will actually be built.

Now. Its possible that Trump honestly believes he can get away with this type of campaign, because of how much he is that rebel. Ok. Unlikely but he is clearly delusional. Secondly, its possible he is hoping/banking on the Republican party to come rescue him once he has secured the nomination (that is perhaps part of the theme of his surprise visit to Washington DC last week).

But how about this for a plot twist. What if - as some have been speculating usually tongue-in-cheek - if Trump really is terrified that this run went far too well for the show he wanted, and he can CLEARLY see it will destroy him if he became the nominee - if he really IS trying to get out of it - but with his dignity. So for example, now, why on earth promise he'll win in Wisconsin where clearly he isn't going to. Its a winner-take-all state, so his damage will be far worse and it will tarnish his image heading to New York where he HAS to win (and win big).

What if Trump is now honestly 'trying to lose' but to lose only just, ie to get over 1,000 delegates and then have the nomination go to Cruz for example, and Trump can begrudgingly withdraw from the race if the Republican party just pays the loans Trump has paid to run so far, or whatever hustle he has going on the side. Anyway... So imagine if Trump is now set on quitting (I mean, the past two weeks has been an unprecedented series of gaffes even for our Trump season. He has now what, 5 separate contradictory answers on the abortion question for example). And then to foil that plan - in comes Cruz with his sex scandal who won't take Trump's nomination-gift haha... and Trump might be stuck being the nominee in any case. Gosh it would be so cool to see Trump - after all this - go into the general election and lose. I really really do want to see him become the new Mondale and be forever banned from public visibility haha. (if Trump loses the nomination, he will be the hero, the martyr, the perennial thorn in the side of the party and he will always threaten another run and we'll have to endure his crude commentary for decades to come).

Anyway.. my hypothesis that Trump might be doing this run on the cheap - on the REALLY cheap - seems to be getting some evidence in that Politico piece. (And not bad for another of my gut feelings haha)

Tomi Ahonen :-)


If Trump wants no to damage his (brand) name in business world then he has no other choice then to avoid being the nominee for Republicans. Nobody will do any business with Trump if he loses to Hillary by 10 points or more.

Wayne Borean

@Tomi and @Oibur

While it is possible, we have to ask 'Why?' What does Trump get out of a failed on purpose run for the Republican nomination?

I cannot see where this is any advantage for Trump in political or non-political fields.

I can see it being a hell of a lot of fun. In fact if I were him, I might do something like this. Say he really doesn't like how politics is done. He could have decided that even if he ruins his reputation, showing that American politics is corrupt/despicable/a sick joke was worth it.

He claims his net worth is $10 billion. Even if his net worth was only $100 million, he has more than enough money to live the rest of his life in comfort, and pass on a,decent legacy to his children.

What I'm saying is he could easily afford to do this, while 99.99% of the population couldn't, and his personal public profile was higher than 99.99% of the population. He was in a unique position to do something.

We've had a constant stream of books, documentaries, etc. about the problems in the American political system. None of them have made a difference,

Trump attempting to blow up the GOP might.

As an aside, have you heard the political news from Iceland?

Tomi T Ahonen


Hi everybody. Fresh Reuters daily tracking poll numbers are out (Thru Apr 5). Over the weekend, for the first time ever, when using the 'Likely Republican Primary voter' screen as I always do - Cruz has moved to a slight LEAD over Trump.. Two days now, Sunday and Monday, Cruz ahead by 2 points. Its 39 Cruz 37 Trump (23 Kasich) as of 5 day moving daily average ending Apr 5. Wow, did not see that coming. Eleven days ago Trump was sitting at his all-time peak (likely voters) of 48% for 3 days in a row. And Cruz was from 11 to 14 points behind Trump. But in the past under two weeks as Trump has run his self-destruction phase of his campaign.. wow.. For the first time in this poll and yes, for two days already, Cruz has a slim but clear, 2 point advantage over Trump.

Separately.. haha Mississippi. Did you see that poll? A head-to-head between Hillary and Trump has Trump only 3 points ahead of Hillary in that, one of the reddest of states. If Hillary really is within 3 points of Trump in Mississippi in August, and therefore she's miles ahead in Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, Florida etc - and Hillary would also be ahead in Georgia, Arizona, Missouri - then yes, Hillary would put Mississippi also on the schedule and spend some money there too, partly to pad her victory margin but most of all, to help elect a few more Democrats in the deep South to come to Congress and to support Democratic causes in the Mississippi local politics haha... gosh, first Utah, now Mississippi. Trump truly is toxic. I can't wait to see the next head-to-head in Texas.. its not gonna be pretty

Back to Cruz. If he really is on the DC Madam list, I can't imagine the level of despair among Republican party members who were fighting on the 'never Trump' movement, to just see Cruz move to be ahead of Trump, then for Cruz to betray them and pull a Herman Cain on them. It is like a handgrenade with the pin pulled and rolling around the room where each candidate hands the grenade onto the next one haha. Or a case of Russian Roulette but using a firearm with more than 6 rounds haha...

Tomi Ahonen :-)


Breaking News: Trump has a clear strategy to win a crushing majority of the Latino vote:

Tomi T Ahonen

Just out

Supreme Court declines to consider petition to release the DC Madam attorney from gag order. He had said he would release the names anyway, if he is denied the permission. The names may come out in a matter of minutes or hours..

Stay tuned..

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Wayne Borean

Wow. What a day. Shit storm after shit storm. Popcorn futures must be going through the roof.

And the New Yorker tries to explain Donald Trump. Interesting explanation, what do you think?

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

So Cruz won Wisconsin (and Bernie also called). Talk about a pyrrhic victory. He has just passed Trump for first time ever on the Reuters daily poll tracker (and done it for 2 days in a row) and Cruz has been pulling in his best fund-raising. Now today or probably tomorrow the DC Madam story is likely to break which will then make Cruz hookers the story everybody talks about rather than his victory, for the next two weeks. Thats assuming Cruz remains in the race. He may well quit immediately, or be forced to quit in a few days..

Tomi Ahonen :-)


I really hope it's not Cruz. He is the insurance for having a nut GOP candidate in the general election. Trump may or may not implode, but Cruz will ensure a landslide Democratic victory this fall. Kasich is dangerous.

Wayne Borean


The more I learn about Kasich, the more I think you'll be safe in assuming a nut will win the nomination!


With this book coming out, Ted Cruz must be terrified...


Well, Cruz netted 30 delegates against Trump today (36-6), and won by a bigger than expected margin. Sanders also won by a similar margin as Obama over Clinton today, but because of the stupid Dem rules only nets about 15 delegates. Wisconsin voters on both sides are very savvy and strategic. This was a HUGE turnout even by the standards of Wisconsin, which historically votes above the national average. it blew past the GOP record (in 1980) by more than 10% and was 40% higher than 2008. Sanders has outraised Clinton for 3 consecutive months, and today's result will drain even more potential dollars from the candidate who the FBI is investigating.


@Wayne, how many Americans appeared on the Panama list? Supposedly squeaky-clean Iceland's Prime Minister resigned because he sold his offshore interests to his wife for $1 just before he'd have had to disclose them.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi all

I wrote a review of my January forecast for the full race into the comments thread of that blog article. Here am reposting for you

Hi everybody

Its the half-point stage of the race. Wisconsin has voted and now the half-point in time has been passed. (In terms of states to vote and delegates awarded, we've passed those half-points already.)

How is my forecast doing? Not bad, I'm off now by about 4% on the top 3 rivals. I said its Trump 51%, Cruz 35% and Rubio 7% based on delegates after Wisconsin. The reality is 48% Trump (3% below), 31% for Cruz (4% below) and 11% for Rubio (4% above). Not bad for a forecast..

Now how close is it to the end? Trump has just fallen below the level he would need to hit to clinch the nomination on the last day (June 7). He has to outperform in the last contests or else he falls below the magic number of 1,237.

If the race continues under a 'normal' trajectory, it does look like the nomination is not decided before the convention in Cleveland (but Trump may well do some deal with Rubio or Kasich to get enough delegates through such an alliance). Just by math, if Trump has exactly the same level of under-performance in the last months as he had in the early months vs my initial forecast, he would end with approximately 1,192 delegates (48% of total available) and if so, he'd probably be able to win it on the first ballot because he'd be that close to what is needed.

It does seem like some of the illusions around Trump's campaign are now finally being revealed. He is being hit harder by 'non-Trump' groups than early on, and Cruz is finally showing the ability to win against Trump. Unfortunately for Cruz, there are no debates left for him to make game-changing moves. The reality of remaining races does mean that Cruz cannot get to actually clinching by winning 1,237 delegates out of the primary season but if Cruz over-performs and Trump under-performs, if Cruz is VERY lucky he could catch up to Trump. Its far more likely that Cruz will win the nomination at the Convention in the second or third vote.

So Trump's ceiling seems to have been met and possibly even a 'peak Trump' moment may have passed just before Wisconsin. So with a 'normal' trajectory, Trump should finish 'weak' as he tends to do, and underperform now more, against that 1,192 target which my model would suggest. Meanwhile Cruz has for the first time passed Trump on the Reuters Daily Tracking Poll (for 2 days in a row, ahead by 2 points, before the boost he likely will see out of Wisconsin). And Trump has had his worst 2 week period of a series of gaffes. Thus Trump should continue to see some erosion of his support - and the gains should go disproportionately to Cruz, rather than Kasich.

This all is before we consider the ticking time bomb of the 'DC Madam' scandal which all gossip suggests will reveal Cruz as the candidate who has used prostitutes. That might end his run or at least severely damage it. This in turn then means, Trump might survive this late-race stumble he is having, if Cruz is damaged far more. Lets see how that plays, but obviously a sex scandal is always a total game-changer.

So if the DC Madam story ends up not impacting the race, my January forecast is still within 4% of its numbers. Trump has just fallen below the level he needs to hold to clinch the nomination and now it looks like the most likely outcome is the open convention/contested convention after the primary votes are done (but that Trump may well be able to find a deal before the Convention so that he'd still get to win on the first ballot).

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

PS hi all

How's this for a wild forecast. I think NBC/Wall Street Journal next poll will have Cruz (again) ahead of Trump. That was the only national poll that has ever had Cruz on the top but that was in February and then in their March poll they had Trump ahead by 3 points (with Trump only at 30% also by far lowest Trump showing of any poll in early March).

Assuming of course that its their model and the survey instrument itself has been fair, then from beginning of March to now, Trump should be down a bit - and Cruz definitely up quite strongly. I think the next NBC/WSJ poll will return to that theme that Cruz is ahead. It could very well be the first such poll overall although Reuters may also have that finding on their national poll and that could be out soon, too.

(am I getting too nerdy about these numbers?)

Tomi Ahonen :-)


There are problems brewing in Trump's campaign team.

Infighting, Frustration Rile Trump's Team: Sources

Wayne Borean

No, not to nerdy at all. Again, I agree with your projections, assuming nothing blows up, like the D.C. Madam thing.

I've been thinking the D.C. Madam thing over. If someone's phone number is in the list, and this is not proven yet, Ted Cruz is the most likely candidate on both sides. But what if multiple phone numbers were on the list?

Ted Cruz has no chance to win the nomination outright, which is why the recent series of stories about trying to rig the convention have gained so much traction. He also looked to be going under the treads of bulldozer Trump.

I don't have the timeline for when our friend went to the court to try and get the gag order lifted, so I'm not sure if it is before Ted started to pick up steam, or after. In any case, Ted has no chance to clinch, so a release about him wouldn't be a big deal, except to him.

A release about Trump, well, Trump would pull his usual combination of bluster and misdirection, and probably not loose support.

A release about both of them could really shake things up. Heck, for all I know Kasich is in there too!

I don't have a clue if this is the case, I'm just trying to think things through based on the original statement made by the ex-lawyer for the D.C. Madam. I really hope the number get released, the suspense is killing me!

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