The US Presidential election saga keeps getting more dramatic. Up to now I have not been expecting the Republican nomination fight to go to a contested or deadlocked (aka ‘brokered’) convention but the last week of Trump’s multiple stumbles are opening this to be now my most likely scenario. So quick explanation of the rules. The Republican nomination requires 1,237 delegates to clinch the nomination. Trump is leading with 752 delegates (49% of those awarded so far) and there are 923 left to be awarded (including unpledged delegates). If Trump can win 53% of the remaining delegates then he just clinches and there will be no contested convention. I originally projected in January before any states had voted, that Trump would clinch on the last day of voting, June 7. The last time I did this analysis, that was still my estimate. Now, I think Trump has just slipped below and its heading most likely to that contested convention. That then means far more uncertaintly and opens many scenarios not just where any of Trump or Cruz or Kasich could end up being the nominee for President by the Republican party, it could even be some ‘outsider’ who isn’t currently in the race. It could be someone who had dropped out (Marco Rubio, Chris Christie, Scott Walker, Jeb Bush etc) or could be someone who never ran in this year’s race (Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, Paul Ryan etc). So as this now becomes a significantly possible outcome of the primary voting race and delegate hunt, lets map out the main scenarios and what kind of likely outcome it would mean for the party going forward into the main race against Hillary Clinton for the Autumn general election.
IF TRUMP WINS
Trump does have the most delegates and his lead is significant 289 delegates over second-place Cruz. Trump also leads by a clear margin in national polling at about 42% to Cruz around 30% and Kasich around 19%. Its most likely that Trump will get the most delegates in the remaining months and finishes with the most. That doesn’t mean he wins the nomination but that he’d be in the strongest position, initially. So lets first do the ideal scenario for Trump. If he does clinch on June 7, and finishes with 1,237 delegates or more, he is the nominee. No possible combination of Cruz and Kasich (and even Rubio and Jeb Bush) could get more delegates and Trump will be nominated. The reason this is the best for Trump is that for the six weeks between the last vote and the convention, Trump could patiently build his message, his team, select anyone he wanted as his VP and Trump would get to dictate just about everything about the convention. It would be totally his party. He would prepare the anti-Hillary part of the message and he’d decide pretty much what would be the overall messaging for the party going to the Autumn race. Trump would not need to ‘compromise’ and ‘sacrifice’ by selecting one of his rivals as VP and there ‘should’ be some magnificent Trumpian plan for who his awesome VP choice is. Its gotta be someone better than Chris Christie haha.
If Trump clearly ‘wins’ and clinches 1,237 delegates or more, then while Cruz (and Kasich) supporters will be very disappointed, they’d only be like any other runners-up in this race and they’ll get around to accepting Trump and join in supporting him (regardless of what they now are saying). Trump would have a good six weeks to heal most of the wounds. He’d give nice speaking slots to both Cruz and Kasich and make some promises if necessary about some cabinet positions and there would be a reasonable degree of party unity at the convention. While many in the party leadership are and would be freaking out about Trump as their standard-bearer for the November election, there would be no sneaky ploys to steal the nomination out of credentials challenges, rules changes etc. If Trump fairly wins 1,237 delegates, he’s in. And then he’ll lose by 20 points to Hillary and the Senate and House will both flip.
For Trump every other ‘Trump wins’ scenario gets worse. In fact, every other scenario in this blog gets worse for him. So the second scenario is that Trump finishes with some delegates short of 1,237 but more than 1,100. This is probably the most likely scenario currently. He gets the most delegates but not enough to win over half. Now Trump would have to hustle for some partner to be his VP. The one who would seem ‘easiest’ to win over is Marco Rubio. He will have spent the most time out of the limelight and the hunger has been growing of what he walked away from. He’s not close enough to the last races and the bitterness of not winning. His career in the Senate will end. If Rubio became Trump’s VP (and Trump will obviously lose) then Rubio is reincarnated suddenly as the front-runner to run again in 2020. Rubio holds theoretically 173 delegates, some who may or may not be allowed to vote for a combined Trump-Rubio ticket but if they agree to this partnership and obviously then the Cruz-Kasich camp cannot match the delegates, the party will let this ticket be nominated. However, that does require that Trump convinces Rubio to join his ticket and Trump has been behaving remarkably stupidly since Rubio dropped out, often returning to be critical of the opponent who had already quit the race. Rubio may not be an easy deal to make but Trump is a master deal-maker, he could and indeed he should be able to close that deal.
But Rubio is damaged goods and a bad choice for VP as he probably can’t even win his home state of Florida. If Trump were allowed top pick from Cruz, Kasich and Rubio, he would pick Kasich. Because Kasich as VP would almost guarantee the ticket to win Ohio, a vital battleground state that would be very valuable in trying to win against Hillary. So if Trump finishes in June with less than 1,237 delegates but above 1,100, then he’d definitely try to do the deal for VP with Kasich. And Kasich in most cases will finish behind Cruz, so Kasich knows, he can’t get a better deal out of Cruz either. Now, if Trump just approaches Kasich - and Kasich knows without his acceptance Trump will have to go to the Convention and take the votes, where Kasich can start to gain delegates after the first vote - he’d say no. BUT if Trump plays it smart - and this is basics of negotiation - Trump would FIRST get a preliminary deal with Rubio. And only after Marco says yes, would Trump go to Kasich and say - the deal is done, I will be the nominee for President, Rubio has said yes to VP, so you, Kasich are out, or else, you are my VP. Do you prefer to be my VP or be out of the race. And let Kasich mull it over for a few days (not telling Rubio about this double-cross). Kasich is an old guy, he came in third in the race for delegates. For him to get VP is actually the best he could do anyway. And considering how divisive Trump is as a person, he might be impeached while in office (or assassinated) and that could gift the Presidency to Kasich.. Why not take the deal. So I think if Trump finishes with 1,100 delegates or more but under 1,237, then he’ll probably be able to do a deal and his choice of these three rivals is Kasich, not Rubio (and definitely not Cruz).
It would be in Trump’s best interest to land this deal as soon as possible but it could well take weeks and the deal might not even come until the eve of the Convention. The sooner it comes, the more the rivals can become accustomed to the race being over. If the combined delegate count of Trump and his VP is significantly over 1,237 so well more than 1,250 and ideally over 1,300 then the losing parties would mostly accept it but there would be plenty of hurt feelings. Still the outcome would be relatively similar to the above, but only less time for Trump to set his convention to his liking. Yet it is about the delegates, everybody knows that, and they’d accept it. But if this gets Trump to just barely over the limit, say at around 1,240 delegates, in that case the injured parties (Cruz and whoever is left) could try to block Trump and force a proper vote on the convention floor - where they’d then try to deny enough of the votes on the first ballot to prevent Trump + VP from getting the nomination. Whichever way that went, it would then be ugly and leave a ton of bitter angry Republicans on the losing side.
If the convention is contested and Trump can’t win it on the first ballot, then I think Trump won’t become the nominee. The reason for this is, that most of the delegates that the various states send to Cleveland will not be picked by the CANDIDATES they are picked by the state party organization. And those are usually longer-term loyal Republican activists and supporters and fund-raisers and so forth. They are ‘the establishment’ rather than the rebellion that comes to Trump’s rallies. They are exactly the kind of people who would fear Trump on top of the ticket, causing their home party to lose in November to the Democrats. There definitely will also be Trump supporters but if Trump’s national support is about 40% then of those delegates sent to Cleveland, he would be lucky to have half ie something like 20%. And then, from the second vote and into the fourth vote, an increasing proportion of those delegates becomes unbound and they can vote - personally, not by how their state voted or how their party bosses want - those delegates can vote INDIVIDUALLY to anyone they want. And then Trump’s support will decline from what his first-vote delegate count was. That is why I think, if Trump cannot win on the first ballot, he won’t be the nominee.
This is not absolute objection. Trump might have held out on some negotiations - being the hard-ass negotiator and if one of his rivals was close to a deal but asked for something Trump wasn’t willing to give. If in the second ballot Trump sees he is suddely bleeding delegates, he could rush to that partner and ‘cave’ and make the deal and then win on the third ballot through a partnership deal. But this is unlikely because his rivals would be gaining delegates at each vote as Trump was then bleeding, so they would no longer be interested in dealing. But again, Trump is a master deal-maker, he could maybe salvage a compromise partnership deal with one of his rivals for VP, and still escape as the nominee on the third (or theoretically even fourth) ballot. At this point, however, the rival camp especially Cruz’s supporters will have seen a rising tide and the game shifting into their favor - then suddenly be stolen from them. They’d be angry (and obviously in this case its Kasich not Rubio, if Kasich were to consider a deal with Trump, he’d also go negotiate with Cruz to see if he’d get a better deal there). Because the race was decided on the first day of the Convention, after more than one vote, it would leave the losers (Cruz supporters) with a very bitter taste and a lot of resentment and plenty of feeling of betrayal. But Cruz would not be in any position to run a third-party candidacy and the establishment wing would get ‘their guy’ onto the Trump ticket (Kasich or Rubio) and this probably would keep them satisfied enough, not to try to run some sacrificial third party candidate against Trump. Meanwhile the event itself would be a chaotic circus and a ton of angry familiar names in Republican politics who would be eager to talk to any media about how this was a rotten convention. There would be less unity meaning Trump would fare even worse in the general election against Hillary.
IF CRUZ WINS
Cruz cannot win the nomination though clinching the nomination with 1,237 delegates. Yes mathematically there is that chance but Cruz would have to win 84% of outstanding delegates and considering how rock-solid is Trump’s base of supporters, there is simply no way that Trump wins less than 25%. And there is Kasich also who will win something. So Cruz cannot clinch. But he could finish with more delegates than Trump. That is still a tall order, Cruz would have to win twice as many delegates from here until the end than Trump. Even if Trump is stumbling badly now, its hard to imagine that Trump would average 30% or less of the remaining delegates (not votes, delegates, remembering there are minimum thresholds etc and many winner-take-all states, so the leading candidates will end up with more than their share of votes). For Cruz this would be his ideal scenario, while its a very tall order, it could happen. Especially if now Trump truly stumbles. So if Cruz finishes say with 1,030 delegates and Trump with 1,010 - where Cruz just technically finishes slightly ahead of Trump, that would give him a level of legitimacy going into the Convention that Cruz did finish first. Then he’d still have to do the deal with either Kasich or Rubio for VP to have the delegates to win the nomination as a pair on the first ballot. The party would prefer Cruz over Trump for the general election so if this partnership is achieved, then the party would make the necessary changes to voting rules so that the pairing can be blessed and the nomination convention would be Cruz’s to plan and choreograph.
Now, Trump and his supporters would be mad and yell and scream that they were robbed and Trump would of course threaten to sue. But for Cruz, this is the least angry Trump version. At least Trump would have several weeks of time to calm down. They’d try to get Trump to join the convention, offer him a big speaking slot etc. Its possible that Trump would make some stunt and resign from the party and declare an independent run (in many states the filing deadlines would have passed) and ask his supporters to vote for him as a write-in candidate etc, but if the Cruz+partner ticket was clearly over 1,237 delegates and its weeks before the convention, then it probably would be mostly just noise and no real action by Trump. Trump would know he could not possibly win the election as a third party candidate. But Trump supporters would be angry and many would stay home and some would vote for Hillary. But Cruz’s negatives - while they are bad - are not as bad as Trump’s. So if Trump did not actually run against as an independent, then Cruz might lose by less than Trump. If, however, Trump simply out of spite ran a pure spoiler campaign of a bare-minimum budget run, mostly relying on free media and of course participating in the debates - then he’d steal so many votes from Cruz that Trump might finish second and Cruz third against Hillary. Oh, and of course Trump could decide not to run and just endorse Hillary...
Thats Cruz’s best case scenario. Then its possible Cruz can’t get to a deal for the first vote, but that he wins the nomination on the second, third or fourth vote. As I said, delegates become unbound based on their own state-party rules, either on the second, third or fourth vote. And Cruz’s campaign is by all counts the strongest in working those delegates so after the first vote, while Trump will lose delegates, Cruz will gain. So if Cruz for example finishes the race with 800 delegates to Trump’s 1,100, and the vote goes four votes, it could be that Cruz gets to 1,300 by the fourth vote and Trump to be down to 600 (while Kasich would do better than Trump but worse than Cruz in picking up those unbound delegates).
So in this case, the subsequent votes would see an erosion of delegates with Trump, and going disproportionately to Cruz. And then on one of the early votes, Cruz gets to enough delegates that he becomes the nominee (this could also be at some stage via a partnership with Kasich as VP). Now Trump and his supporters had seen that they went into the convention with the most delegates but then that ‘their’ delegates had suddenly ‘betrayed’ Trump. It would be nasty and could very well be physically violent on the floor. This is where Trump likely would be livid and his supporters be enraged. Note this is on live TV and on day 1 of the convention. Now with his nomination ‘stolen’ the Trump supporters could easily play any kind of total belligerent stunts on the floor and there could be riots. From this there will be no reconciliation with Trump or his supporters. Then Trump would certainly do whatever he felt was the appropriate revenge from running as a third party to endorsing Hillary to becoming a full-time TV critic nightly of Cruz.
IF KASICH WINS
Kasich cannot get to most delegates by June 7. He will be in third place or if he is incredibly lucky (if Cruz collapses) then Kasich could finish second. Note its even possible Kasich finishes fourth (Rubio currently has more delegates than Kasich). Because Kasich can’t finish first or second in delegates under any reasonable outcome, he is either going to be VP at best, or else, he needs a truly deadlocked convention. What Kasich is hoping for, is that Trump can’t clinch and neither Trump nor Cruz can get to 1,237 in the early votes, and then that as the three keep trying to convert delegates, Kasich could persuade enough delegates that actually Kasich is the most ELECTABLE candidate even as he finished third in the primary race. Up to now (April 2) there has been very little consideration of the general election. But the first Trump vs Hillary final election projection has been made by a major forecaster (Sabato, who has a very good record of projecting past elections) who said Trump would lose all states Romney did, plus he’d lose one more (North Carolina). There will be plenty more trusted forecasters who will be doing their election projections and they will all be something in that level of truly catastrophic for Trump. And as those prospects loom, the Republican delegates to the convention will start to worry about the November election. Electability will be a significant theme if the convention is contested. That is where Kasich’s argument starts to bear fruit.
But Cruz will have a huge lead first off, with more delegates, and then out of the stacking of the various state delegations to support Cruz in later votes. Meanwhile out of those delegates who will be with Trump from the second ballot - those will mostly be then true Trumpians, who would vote for Trump even if he did shoot somebody. It is a VERY tall order for Kasich to surge from third place at a long distance to take a majority of all delegates ie its not enough for him to surge to a plurality, he does need to get to that 1,237. If Kasich gets to it, its either very late on Day 1 of voting - or worse, they suspend the voting for the night, and return to vote on Day 2. Note, Kasich in some ways controls his destiny because Trump will never be Cruz’s VP and Cruz won’t accept Trump’s VP slot especially as Cruz will be able to climb to more delegates in the later votes than Trump (at least for a while). So as both Trump and Cruz come to Kasich after every vote to offer him the VP slot, if Kasich keeps saying no, he could keep the voting going forever and just try to convert every interval a couple more delegates until he eventually becomes the winner. Its an unlikely but still plausible scenario.
Note, that the party would far prefer Kasich to Cruz (and obviously to Trump) on the top of the ticket. So as long as they make progress towards this unlikely but possible outcome, the party people at the conventions will give Kasich whatever support they can muster. So its possible. But then.. if Kasich is the nominee and he cannot become this until after many votes and possibly not until Day 2 - that means both an incredibly angry Trump AND an angry Cruz and essentially half of the party in total revolt against ‘sneaky’ Kasich who finished a distant third and now stole their nomination(s). This could actually result in a genuine literal split in the party where the Tea Party walks out of the convention and runs Cruz (and Trump might run as a fourth-party candidate). If either were to run against Kasich, Kasich would lose massively to Hillary. But its also possible that the repeated votes are a slow draining process that wears each side down and Kasich just emerges as the kind of last-man-standing and both rival sides reluctantly agree that he won in the end of this marathon. I can’t see it in the nature of Trump or Cruz to just agree, yeah, Kasich won - but they might. I could even see, that perhaps Cruz, if he saw his lead gradually be eroded to Kasich, that Cruz then surrenders and accepts Kasich’s offer of VP. That would have to be a kind of slow and clearly inevitable trend, each vote Kasich picks up about 50 more delegates and then passes Cruz and slowly marches towards the 1,337 and Cruz is unable to stop the bleeding.. then he might agree to a VP position although I think not.
IF SOMEONE ELSE WINS
So if nobody gets 1,237 delegates there is only one remedy: another vote. It could go on for dozens and dozens of votes, over literally more than a day. One Democratic convention had over 100 votes until they decided on their nominee. There is no other way to pick the nominee, except - yet another vote. Now, consider the three. Each has a VERY distinct constituency that could foreseeably be stubborn till hell freezes over. Trump has the nutters, the racists and much of the Tea Party. Plus he has the blue-collar white Republicans in low-paying jobs. His base of supporters are the most decided and loyal of any voter group on either side of the aisle. While at the convention of the delegates, he won’t have 40% he might have 30% and he’ll definitely have over 20%.
Then there is Cruz. He has the religious wing and the rest of the Tea Party. While his national support has only reached about 30% at the convention he will have at least that and probably closer to 40% of the delegates but very unlikely to get to 50% because he is such a disliked and extreme politician, and because Trump has part of the Tea Party. Lets say its about 40%.
So then we have the ‘establishment’ and ‘moderate’ and sensible foreign policy Republicans who all are horrified by either Trump or Cruz. As Lindsay Graham said, to pick between the two is to pick whether to be shot or poisoned, both will kill you (yet Graham now has endorsed Cruz). The moderate wing would be with Kasich. But because the disgruntled blue-collar low-income voters are with Trump, Kasich can’t really get to over 50% either. If it was any two, then a majority is easy. But these three could be close to 1/3 vs 1/3 vs 1/3. Or in reality more like 25% for Trump, 35% for Cruz and 40% for Kasich and that could remain deadlocked forever. And because Trump will never be anybody’s VP and Cruz initially finished ahead of Kasich, neither Trump nor Cruz could then accept to be the VP to Kasich. It could produce a genuinely deadlocked convention that could go 20 or 30 votes on Day 1 and by Day 2, after another dozen votes, the party could open the convention for new candidates to be nominated in some way, as compromise candidates. Someone that at least two of those three factions could agree to support. Thats where Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin (gasp) and any of the earlier rivals like Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Scott Walker, Marco Rubio, Carly Fiorina etc could be put forth and suggested to the groups. Here if one had already endorsed one candidate, it could be a deal-breaker but not necessarily if that candidate had managed to remain very fair to the other(s). Its also possible that one of the three, Trump, Cruz & Kasich - might agree to someone they perceive as weak into the general election - just so that the compromise candidate is NOT then going to win and become the President (and embarrass thus the candidate who had actually won hundreds of delegates).
Here BY FAR the most likely candidate is Paul Ryan. He was the VP before. He is establishment and moderate but conservative enough that many Tea Partiers also respect him. He is also going to be chairing the convention. He likes to play that reluctant warrior, who says no no no no until he says yes. That was how he played VP to Romney in 2012 and how he played the House Speaker position after John Boehner quit. I think if such a compromise is found, that would be less divisive than most of the above options, as it won’t be seen as one of the finalist ‘stealing’ the race but it going to a genuine ‘compromise’ where nobody gets to win. Note, this means the voting lasted more than one day. This means the whole convention is a mess and the new nominee for President would not even have a VP yet (and that could not be any of the three finalists). That candidate would not have any field operations done to prepare for the general election and no real positions on anything nor any team or organization. The rest of the convention would be run by the seat-of-the-pants with no real major themes other than being against Hillary obviously. This choice has the best chance of no real rift in the party - under the best scenario - and of course still a valid possibility of one severely angry player who might still throw a big fit. Note that the race is for the delegates and this kind of compromise candidate could result suddenly in some delegates ‘deserting’ their candidate - where then the candidate would feel betrayed - and become bitter.
The best part of this scenario is that theoretically the nominee (and eventual VP choice too) could be moderates with better chances in the general election. But now, the big fund-raising organizations that Trump, Cruz and Kasich had built, and the data-mining operations and the field operations - those would all need to be built from scratch or somehow acquired from the three runners-up. And then a rush-job to set up a campaign would need to be done, to go against the most prepared and best-funded non-inclumbent ever to run, in Hillary. That candidate would most definitely lose but might not lose that badly to give the House to the Democrats. The Senate would still be lost. This, of course assuming that none of the three, Trump, Cruz or Kasich decide to play sore loser and mess up the Republican team.
BEST INTEREST
So we have mapped out the rough scenarios. Now lets summarize the best interests. For Trump he HAS to get to 1,237 or at least 1,100 delegates. Then no matter what is the demand by Rubio or Kasich, Trump has to get a clear agreement with one of his last 3 rivals to agree to be VP, so he can bring to the Republican party a done deal, where the ticket can then clinch the nomination even if Trump alone might not. With this, the last week has been a total catastrophy for Trump. He is horribly undisciplined and prone to repeated self-induced wounds. Like Morning Joe Scarborough just said, Trump has to change his style and now become disciplined and stick to a clear script and stop the constant telephoned-in media exposure and nightly Twittering. He has to be the tiger that changed its stripes if he intends to win the nomination. This is a tall ask. But Trump has been incredibly lucky and his rivals are not exactly the Einsteins of politics, so Trump could well do it (oh, and see DC Madam Sex Scandal below). But Trump cannot let the race go past the first vote at the Convention.
For Cruz, he needs to maximize his delegate haul (such as winning now in Wisconsin) and then stack the deck in the delegates past the first vote. He has to have spies near each of the Kasich, Rubio and Trump camps, to make sure he is not outmaneouvered by a surprise Trump deal. It doesn’t help that Cruz has been eagerly burning every bridge he ever walked over. He is very smart in some ways but he seems to be genuinely tone-deaf when it comes to the word ‘collaborate’ with his own party. It would be the smartest thing he could do, if he now worked feverishly to try to fix some of the damaged relations with the party establishment but that does not seem to be in the nature of Ted Cruz. Still, he cannot win it outright, his best bet is to win on the second, third, fourth votes if he can get enough of his people embedded in the various state delegate groupings. And Cruz will need to try to land deals with either Rubio or Kasich when any such numbers might work for his nomination (obviously Rubio soon becoming irrelevant after the second vote).
For Kasich, he probably gets to be the king-maker and gets to pick with which he’ll be the VP but Kasich should delay that choice and try to first see if he might wear out the rivals with votes into ten or more, hopefully gradually picking up enough random delegates on the electability argument to actually take the nomination. A long-shot but possible. If it gets to those votes, its in Kasich’s interest NOT to take any deals offered until its 100% certain after several vote, that no more delegates can be pried from Trump or Cruz. So Kasich’s best interest, if the first vote does not decide it for Trump and the next five votes do not decide it for Cruz, is to just let the day end with votes and go into day 2. But if before the Convention Trump comes in and says Rubio has agreed, will Kasich instead become Trump’s VP - that deal Kasich has to take or he ends up with nothing.
For Rubio, he may hope he gets to be king-maker but that is not in the cards. The only chance for Rubio is a slim one - Trump has to get more than 1,100 delegates but under 1,237. In that case - and only that case - can Rubio become Trump’s (and only Trump’s) VP. But that then requires that Kasich turns down Trump’s alternate offer. Its a slim chance for Rubio but his only way to get anything is VP with Trump in this particular way. On Cruz’s side there is nothing on offer. Cruz won’t get to 1,100 delegates, so Rubio alone cannot bring Cruz over the top, and that means Cruz will always need Kasich who will have more delegates and thus would become the VP. And Rubio will see clearly that Cruz will lose (badly) and thus no promises of Secretary of State etc could be of any value to Rubio because Cruz can’t beat Hillary anyway so that promise is worthless. The only real chance for Rubio is to be Trump’s VP, at best.
Now for the OTHERS... there will be MANY who are hoping against hope to steal the nomination out of a deadlocked convention, starting with Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan. They will have plenty of incentive to try to wreck any deals and thus expose any schemes and alliances and gossip with the press etc. But because they would need to get also the support of the delegates, they’d be leaking off the record, or via conduits and conspirators.
DC MADAM SEX SCANDAL
Then there is one total handgrenade that can blow up the whole calculation. Last week the former attorney for the notorious DC Madam who was convicted in 2007 for running an escort service of high-priced hookers for DC clients (who then committed suicide in 2008) has declared that he wants to reveal the 815 names that are currently under court-ordered gag-order. So 815 people, likely many famous politicians and other prominent people in DC including maybe military, media, police, judges etc - are among those 815. But that sleazy ex-lawyer has said that at least one of the 5 remaining candidates in this year’s race is among the 815 names. Could even be 2 of the 5.
So the DC Madam had run her operation from 1998 to 2007. During that total time Bernie Sanders was in DC as first a Congressman then Senator. Hillary Clinton was also in DC first as the First Lady then as the Senator from New York. Ted Cruz was in DC from 2001 to 2003 on the legal team of W Bush’s administration (then went back home to Texas but frequently visited DC to argue several cases in front of the Supreme Court). John Kasich was in DC only the first years and went to Ohio to work for Lehman Brother as an investment banker. And Trump was not living in DC but did visit it some times. From their physical presence its not very likely Trump or Kasich are on that list but Bernie, Hillary and/or Cruz could be. Now... the DC Madam did reveal a bunch of names back in 2007 that resulted in several careers ruined. If Hillary had been on that list (whether gay - female escort - or male escort - or even, could be that Hillary was booking girls for Bill haha if we get very lurid) you’d think the DC Madam would have included her name then, back in 2007. Its more likely that whoever is on that list, was more of a low-tier politician at the time. Bernie maybe, but Senator is still a big catch even if first-term Senator. The least visible very low-level official at that time was Ted Cruz.
Then looking at gossip about sex scandals, as far as I can see, Kasich, Bernie and Hillary have had no gossip about personal sex scandals (but obviously Bill Clinton had several). Trump had his infidelities yes but seems like he’d probably not come to DC to get a hooker, he’d probably use a New York escort service, closer to home, if he wanted to use one. But .. Ted Cruz has plenty of gossip that he has had sex scandals in his past. There is also now a warning by Anonymous that they supposedly have hacked into the list and have some phone records relating to Texas. So if one of the 5 finalists DID use a hooker by the DC Madam, I’d guess that was Ted Cruz. Note, I have ZERO knowledge of this, and its pure speculation based on what the attorney now says and which is the ‘best fit’ pattern out of their other press coverage and the timing when they were in DC.
But whoever it is, if there is really one of these five (its possible the attorney is hyping this story and in reality its a low-tier campaign staffer, not the actual candidate, in which case that staffer would resign and the candidate could easily move on past the modest scandal) who has used a call girl (or boy) then I think that political career ends almost instantly and obviously the race for President for that candidate goes the way of Gary Hart and John Edwards and Herman Cain. Now, on Trump, he is so much made of teflon if it was Trump, he actually might survive a sex scandal. I don’t think he would, but he is so durable in the face of outrageous career-ending gaffes that he might. But the other four, they would definitely be toast if their name(s) can be found on the 815 names of the DC Madam.
The attorney who has this list has just written to the Supreme Court this past week saying it is urgent to release him from the gag order, because a name (or names) among the 5 remaining Presidential candidates is on that list. He said he gives the Supreme Court 2 weeks to release him. He said even if the Supreme Court doesn’t say, he will release the names in two weeks. And the names are already on four servers internationally and hidden, on a rolling 72 hour timer, so if something happens to the guy, then the names get released automatically. This is similar to how Wikileaks has been operating and there is some speculation that the names are actually held with Wikileaks. But it seems very likely that this is genuine and it will be revealed within about 10 days and could literally happen within the next hour even. Then one of the five is instantly eliminated and the total race is drastically altered. So lets go over the five by what I think is the likelihood.
Ted Cruz. He is the most likely candidate to be on that DC Madam list. He’s also the most religious and ‘pure’ candidate who has preached his family values agenda repeatedly. If Cruz is the one, he is instantly toast. Yes, we’d probably see the spectacle of Cruz standing with his stoic wife just behind him begging forgiveness. And to no avail, his career would be kaput. But how would that impact the race? Kasich would suddenly become the only non-Trump. How many of Cruz’s voters would go to Trump instead of Kasich? I can’t see many doing that, so most of them would go to Kasich. We’d get something like 55-45 voter support in the remaining races - except that some states have already had early voting and thus Kasich would not get to that 55% level, maybe only 50%. But because of winner-take-all states and so many of the remaining states being kinder to moderate candidates and as Trump has been faltering, Kasich could win as many as 70% of the remaining delegates. Then Trump would be denied the 1,237 level and Kasich could finish ahead of Cruz and have as much as 800 delegates. From that, after the first vote, Kasich should be able to convert most of the Cruz and Rubio delegates and snatch the nomination from Trump.
But Trump would not be out. If Trump played it very carefully, hit Kasich repeatedly and hard everywhere, Trump could get to 1,100 delegates or even to 1,237 as Cruz was out of it. If Trump got 40% of the remaining delegates he’s past 1,100 and if Trump got to 53% he’d clinch. This would genuinely become a two-man race where if Trump had the discipline of a strong and focused campaign with not many gaffes, he could take it. And equally, Kasich would have to hit Trump very hard at every level and stop with the nice guy routine if Kasich intended to win.
Oh, and a wrinkle here. If Cruz dropped out leaving only Kasich as the non-Trump, I think Rubio could jump back into the race and resume his candidacy, arguing he has more delegates than Kasich and had won more states or regions. That in turn would just about guarantee that Trump still won the contest because now Rubio would only be a spoiler to Kasich probably winning more delegates but never enough to really matter.
Bernie Sanders. I think Bernie is the second most likely client of the DC Madam and this is FAR below where I think Cruz is. But yes, its possible. If it is Bernie, then his run is instantly over. The party would totally desert him and demand he ends his run instantly because of all the bad press he’d be now bringing to the ticket. As Bernie is not a member of the Democratic party and they’ve kind of tolerated his run, now he’d be instantly cut off at the knees. Some younger voters would try to understand him and forgive but it would be over. Hillary would benefit as she’d get a far earlier chance to pivot to the general election and not worry about giving Bernie a major role speaking at the Convention.
Hillary Clinton. So yeah, it could be that Hillary is gay (wouldn’t that be something) or that the DC Madam also provided male escorts. And its even possible if we really think like a soap opera, that Hillary and Bill have a totally wrecked marriage in a sexual sense but that Hillary would occasionally buy hookers for Bill instead of sleeping with her husband.. who knows. But its yes plausible that she is the name and yes, it would end her career. I could see some of her supporters stand with her briefly, especially women, if this was timed with Bill’s behavior but I can’t see her able to remain the candidate. That would suddenly make Bernie the candidate and then - all those great polls he gets now, beating the Republican rivals, would soon been demolished. The Republicans would sense their gift and attack Bernie the marxist leninist communist red socialist for everything he ever said. Then the race for 2016, essentially whoever it is from the Republican side, would suddenly be a race of unknown outcome. Looking at how incredibly kindly Bernie has fought, imagine him going against Trump? I think Trump would destroy Bernie in the way Jeb Bush was destroyed. But Trump is so toxic, it would still be a race but gosh, I could not handicap that race at this point. Could go either way.
Bill Clinton. Note, it could be that the attorney thinks because its the spouce of a candidate, that would still be relevant to the candiate (and it would). So it could be Bill Clinton. Obviously a man of many sex scandals. While it would be embarrassing and damaging too, to Hillary, I don't think it would end HER career but it would essentially knock Bill out of the race as a surrogate. Hillary would take damage but also probably get some sympathy. She'd maybe file for divorce or something like that, and yeah, it would be damaging but I don't think she'd be forced to quit because her husband is already known to be a sleazebag. But it would damage her while not cause her campaign to be derailed. Very inconvenient yes.
John Kasich. Kasich was only in DC for the very brief early years of the DC Madam but he could still have been a client at that time. If he was now exposed, his career would instantly end and that would be the best outcome for Cruz. If Kasich was out, almost all of the Kasich voters would come to Cruz rather than Trump. Then Cruz could finish ahead of Trump.
Donald Trump. Trump could use call girls why not. He’s sleazy enough to talk about banging his own daughter and he did buy the Miss Universe pageant so he could oogle pretty girls in bikinis at will. He might not be a regular client of the DC Madam but it could be for example that Trump used regularly some New York Madam and then that company would refer Trump to the DC Madam on some of his trips or whatever. Or that Trump might have experienced the DC Madam services as part of some perk related to some campaign contributions and shenanigans with whoever in DC. The reason I have Trump last is the geography, he would be expected to have another escort service nearer to home ie New York but it could be. If Trump was caught using a hooker in DC, then I think he would be the only candidate who MIGHT survive the scandal but see a big drop in his support. I don’t think he’d ever get the nomination but he might not have to quit the race. He’d just stop winning and he might finish with the most delegates but nowhere near 1,100 and he’d be out of it immediately in the second vote when Cruz would be nominated.
But this REALLY is like reality TV. An unscheduled extra elimination round has just been announced. Within the next ten days, one of the five (perhaps even two) will be eliminated, assuming that attorney really was telling the truth that one of the 5 finalists is on the DC Madam’s list. And that would dramatically alter the race that I speculated about in the above.
So get a refill to your popcorn. This is the once-in-a-lifetime election and your grandkids will be asking you what you thought of this weird election with Trump in America early in the century... Pay attention, this kind of entertainment doesn’t come around every ten years haha. And a deadlocked convention? That is a VERY rare treat, it hasn’t happened in the modern TV era.
@Wayne
Is that buying of delegates a fact or is it just a rumor? Because if it is not true then it may push the remaining noncommitted super-delegates even more into Clinton's camp.
Posted by: cornelius | April 09, 2016 at 12:59 PM
@cornelius,
The money deal with the state delegations seems well documented, as does the super delegates of several Bernie states continuing to support Hillary. So yes, it does look like they were bought and paid for.
Posted by: Wayne Borean | April 10, 2016 at 07:37 AM
LOL. Decided to waste Sunday. Started reading Bloom County 2015 from the start on GoComics.
End result?
My stomach hurts like hell from all of the laughing. The Opus/Bill Presidential Campaign slogan is pure genius.
Posted by: Wayne Borean | April 10, 2016 at 10:34 PM
Slow times, let's look at what The Onion has to say:
Shimmering Immaculate Republican Candidate Appears Before GOP Officials
‘It’s Him,’ Stunned Conservative Leaders Mutter
http://www.theonion.com/article/shimmering-immaculate-republican-candidate-appears-52710
Posted by: Winter | April 11, 2016 at 12:32 PM
Trump is reorganizing his campaign
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/trump-seeks-reshape-campaign-wisconsin-loss-38301979
Posted by: winter | April 11, 2016 at 02:07 PM
Hi all
Ok. So the plan by DC Madam sleazy ex-attorney is... tease the story out, to the max. He just released today a list of the organizations involved in the 815 names.. no names yet. So if this goes by the rationale of biggest catch last, we should see junior level near-nobodies first, moderate names later, a few huge names just before the grand prize and then should be the Cruizer last.
I would think this adds to the pressure on Mr Ted. I bet some of his advisors are saying - take the plunge now and eat the damage, you can't win New York state anyway.. IF he can be thought to survive past the story... (am not at all sure he can, even with full apologies and assurances he's been faitful during his marriage etc etc)
Tomi Ahonen :-)
Posted by: Tomi T Ahonen | April 12, 2016 at 06:00 AM
Hi all
It seems weird not to get national polling on the GOP race for almost 2 weeks as we had so much of it for so long, and recently we've seen the big Trump drop in popularity. So how is the race now?
Reuters daily tracking poll is our best thermometer and it tells an interesting story. In Trump's 11 days of destruction, his Reuters daily tracking poll number (which is last 5 day rolling average) left a 3-day peak of 48% and dived to 33%, his lowest in six weeks. At the same time, Cruz climbed to the top of the poll for the first time and hit a peak Cruz level of 46% for one day. But the polling gods giveth, and the polling gods taketh away..
After Trump went into his media hideout, his polling recovered. They recovered FASTER than the rate of decline when Trump was wrecking his own support. Trump has had 6 days of continuous growth in the Reuters daily tracking poll number, in just 2 days he returned to higher numbers than Cruz, and today Trump is at back to 45% (and poll trend is still up, he's only 3 points below is all-time peak of 48%).
First, Kasich has been on a dead brainwave pattern sitting on 20%. The ups and downs of Trump or Cruz have had zero effect on Kasich. He has been sitting around 20% for three weeks, plus minus a few points. Then Trump and Cruz - they are almost perfectly mirroring each other, when one loses its the other who gains - this means those in the middle are truly selecting between Trump and Cruz - their overlap voters - and while they seem to have a preference of Trump over Cruz by about 5 to 10 points - they get disappointed when Trump pulls his outrageous stunts and then flock to Cruz for a moment, but as Trump quiets down, they return to Trump again.
So first, back to my original thesis and that of so many other pundits (some who have abandoned the idea) - it seems that Trump does have a solid ceiling. He can bump his head at the ceiling, he can drop from it (where he also has a solid floor he can't all below) but he can't breach that ceiling.
Secondly the non-Trump non-Cruz gang seems to be 20% and they have settled on Kasich and are ignoring the two children bickering on the playground. But that race between Cruz and Trump - Cruz has gradually won over an ever slightly-growing slice, taking a few points more every month. It was mostly consolidating the support of those who quit the race or who were undecided but if Trump has about a 40% ceiling (Reuters daily tracking poll has consistently been well above that number) and Kasich takes 20%, and some percent are undecided, then mathematically Cruz can never beat Trump. Cruz NEEDS for Trump to be forced below his ceiling. And it seems that the anti-Trump ads and surrogates and campaign isn't really doing it. The only way Trump can be brought under his ceiling of 40% is - by Trump doing his gaffes - and he needs to do many of them. THAT requires Trump to be Trump and whatever his campaign re-set has achieved in the past days - it MUST be that someone got through to Trump's brain, that he has to stop the gaffe-machine that has been so entertaining.
So its DISCIPLINE. If Trump can install discipline - he can 'easily' now capitalize on the full support of his total base. Just don't alienate it now. That means, Trump could have a strong finish towards the Convention - and if he outperforms in the last races - this being Republican race with its winner-take-all rules in most states or most districts - Trump could still clinch it by June 7. Its not the most likely scenario but he could do it, well within his chances still. Can Trump be 'silenced' and off-Twitter for two months? If he really wants it (to try to be President/to become the Republican nominee for President) and if his 'I am very smart' brain has finally digested that Trump behavior was damaging Trump - he could adjust his behavior and stop being that entertaining buffoon we've seen, but rather hide from the media, be more muted at his rallies, install discipline to his campaign - and take the nomination on June 7.
In that way the race is in Trump's control and out of Cruz's control. That is of course ignoring the time bomb of the DC Madam haha...
And Paul Ryan. What's with HIS releasing videos of how Presidential he is? Ryan really wants the nomination at the Convention - and it smells of Dick Cheneyan shenanigan that the nomination Convention will be chaired by Ryan going in, that it is likely to be contested. Ryan is totally running for the nomination now and he must be seen at least as strong a dark horse to win the nomination as Kasich. Now, imagine if Ryan's spies have discovered that Cruz truly is on the DC Madam list - then as long as the party can prevent Trump from taking the nomination, if its down to Kasich who hasn't won anything other than his own state (or Rubio who dropped out long ago) then suddenly Ryan is as good a candidate as any.. He is SO running for it now.
PS how difficult would the short race to November be for Republicans if first Trump ruins what remained of the brand of Republicans; then Cruz the hated outsider is reluctantly embraced by most in the party who then turns out to be a sex scandal; then the contest in Cleveland is nasty with angry mobs of Trumpsters; and then the SOLUTION is the Speaker of the House - the most hated part of Government - by the most hated party - who himself is stuck with a long litany of nasty votes and proposals against the nation, simply confirming that the Republicans are a party for rich white men of privilege. Its different if Ryan had been running the last year a post-Boehner era period of compromise and sense on Capitol Hill but not the way he's been, pandering to the Tea Party haha. On he other hand, a compromiser could not unify the angry Republican base well represented at the Convention recruited by the effective Cruz campaign, augmented by the loud but smaller Trump gang also at the Convention.
But after the months of Trumpisms the past few days have seemed dull haha.. Essentially only Trump whining about how the rules are against him (while his kids couldn't be bothered to register to vote for dad, what commitment and obviously 'competence' in that family haha)
Tomi Ahonen :-)
Posted by: Tomi T Ahonen | April 12, 2016 at 07:39 PM
Hi everybody
So thinking beyond 2016..
If Trump takes the nomination by June 7 or in the interim days to the Convention and wins on the first ballot, he's obviously going to be the candidate to be devastated in the general election and his type of politics will be seen as pretty close to 'inherently bad' for at least a few election cycles, possibly for several generations. Trump himself would be the most visible celebrity in the world during the month of October, and then be a pariah from after his election loss. It would be just about the most cruel fate that could befall the guy who so loves and craves the attention and whose name would instantly be associated with literally the opposite of what he's been building his whole life. Instead of winner, he'd be the biggest loser.
(Obviously personally, looking at his farce of a candidacy, I'd love nothing more than this)
But if he doesn't win it on the first ballot, Trump isn't going to be the nominee. If its anyone else (and I mean anyone, not just Cruz, Kasich, Rubio, Romney and Ryan) then Trump would emerge as a radical outsider Robin Hood type of hero, who was robbed, and he'd have his reputation especially among the many millions who do adore him, and Trump would forever be guaranteed a big visible media role in the future of Tea Party and whatever splintering groups might emerge from the 2016 election drubbing that did not have Trump on top. Trump can easily say, they threw a clear victory away by not nominating him, that only Trump could have stopped Hillary, any moron can see that the way the Republicans did it at the crooked Convention meant they would lose. And as long as he never again ran, he'd have a prominent role into the perpetual future, in a kind of male-version of Sarah Palin if you will. No matter what he said he'd still be welcomed on some conservative talk shows and therefore, he'd also get to continue to spew his brand of hatred and perpetuate the hate-wing of the Republican Party or whatever might come out of a possible Tea Party splinter group. Trump losing at the Convention would not brand Trump a loser, it would later brand him as the betrayed savior, who could have saved the party (as the Senate flips, Hillary coasts to big victory in any case, and the 2017 Supreme Court starts to issue various rulings on its fresh liberal balance after four decades of conservative rulings). Because Trump has taken so many (contradictory) positions on just about anything, he'll also be a highly popular talk show guest then - as a counter-balance whenever Hillary and the Democrats bring about their legislative agenda - So Mr Trump what do you think of this idea - and he'll be so bitter, he'll make John McCain in the Senate after losing to Obama and leading the obstruction there - seem like your loving grandpa.
So for Trump its one of extreme fates, either zero or hero. He can never become President but his future makes him either an untouchable or the most popular anti-Hillary commentator of all the politicos. Obviously if Trump has the life after 2016, he will forever tease future Presidential runs which he then won't actually do. Its like the opposite of Romney who says no, he won't do another run and then keeps trying to run again, Trump will keep saying how great he'd be and he's thinking of running again in 2020 or 2024 etc - but then he never again joins the race for real - because he will know fully well, the next time he'd be fried on the first months because of all the baggage and the unused oppo research that all will have about him, leftovers of 2016 (with the added hindsight of how ludicrous the statements were at the time, when viewed 4 or 8 years later).
(will do Cruz next)
Tomi Ahonen :-)
Posted by: Tomi T Ahonen | April 13, 2016 at 11:02 PM
Next on Cruz
Now what of Cruz? He is poised to win the nomination on the second, third or latest fourth ballot, assuming Trump doesn't clear 1,237 on the first ballot. Its Cruz's nomination then by default, it won't go to Kasich. Cruz's campaign has worked brilliantly to prepare for this scenario and the cards are falling into place that Trump seems to be ending a hundred or so delegates short going into the first ballot (and again, remembering, Trump would have six weeks to get Kasich to agree to be his VP and he could very well get to that, or if not Kasich, then Rubio..)
So it could/would/should then be Cruz. Except for the DC Madam story. And that complicates everything and is that wonderful monkey wrench to make it all incredibly unpredictable. So first, if no DC Madam. Trump could win it on the first ballot, Cruz comes a clear second obviously but far behind. Cruz becomes the de-facto front-runner for 2020 but obviously Cruz won't be the VP in 2016. Except for possible DC Madam revellations LATER after the Convention, Cruz would be the clear front-runner for 2020, as Trump crashes and burns with his contest with Hillary. Cruz will be highly popular on TV telling how they should have nominated a genuine conservative of real convictions..
If the DC Madam story doesn't break and Trump doesn't get the nomination, Cruz takes it on the later ballots at the Convention, then Cruz becomes the nominee. He might even in public offer Trump the VP slot (to try to woo his supporters but knowing Trump will not accept that humiliation) and then Cruz would set in play, his surprisingly well-organized general election campaign, probably pick Kasich as his VP, and go to lose by 20 points to Hillary. Cruz's future political fate is the unmentionable with no hope ever of any redemption. The idea that selecting a pure conservative will be debunked and the Republican party can start its healing process to get rid of the Tea Party extremist views if not even many of their politicians.
Note a Cruz 20 point loss to Hillary is before any sabotage work by Trump himself. Just on Cruz's net unelectability in a general election (even unelectability in the Republican party if it was a two-man race Cruz against anyone less extreme ie non-Trump). Its clear some of Trump's supporters would hate Cruz and many of the party loyalists and supporters would not support Cruz's 2016 run and some moderates especially around national security matters would openly support Hillary instead. But if Trump campaigned against Cruz for the general election - could be as severe as running as an Independent (often as a write-in candidate) or leading a break with the party - to just endorsing Hillary instead of Cruz - to just bickering about every move made by Cruz during the autumn campaign on news talk shows - Trump could be the most sore loser we'd ever seen - and remember he can only lose the nomination through the humiliation of the Convention welcoming Trump with the most delegates, then Ryan and Cruz 'conspiring' to deny Trump the nomination in later votes after the first vote. He would be royally pissed off in any case.
I cannot see a non-DC-Madam scenario, where Trump doesn't win on the first ballot - that then Cruz would not be the nominee. Kasich or anyone else, cannot come in from so far behind and somehow overtake Cruz, especially as Cruz has worked so well at specifically this scenario for the Convention. But if somehow that happened - say Kasich just catches fire now in the last contests in 'blue states' of the NorthEast and California etc - and Kasich emerges as a clear favorite of the moderate wing, and perhaps Cruz otherwise stumbles in the home stretch, then yes. It could be that Kasich steals the victory from what is now a distant fourth place in the delegate hunt (still behind even Rubio today).
Now this has been the year of the unbelievable, so why not. Kasich could maybe then emerge as the preferred candidate, where Trump delegates quickly diminish, Cruz approaches but doesn't get to 1,237 either by the say third, fourth ballots, then suddenly Kasich and the various party 'elders' and activists and grass roots and supporters and fund-raisers would say - come on, Kasich has a far better chance in the general election than Cruz - and he could win it, from say the 8th ballot on haha...
The vitriol between the two front-runners Trump and Cruz could easily get so bad, that supporters of either could say - never him, but I'll go with Kasich instead.. Its plausible that Cruz has a brief moment of rising glory on the second, third and fourth ballots, then to see it slip away between his fingers (and onto Kasich, or even another nominee if it goes say past 10 ballots of essentially deadlock). Then both Trump and Cruz would escape the fate of being pummeled by Hillary and would have a career in politics beyond 2016 (as long as no DC Madam scenario). But what would happen to the Convention and party if Trump with the most delegates won (and most votes cast) doesn't get it, and Cruz with the second most delegates & votes - but also with the best grass-roots Convention delegate support - doesn't win it either. And both Trump and Cruz have far more vocal and passionate supporters than the rest of the party? There would not just be riots and a split in the party, there could be a live-time TV spectacle of Trump and Cruz supporters storming the stage, threatening Paul Ryan, and literally taking over the party. They could insist that THEY are the Republican party, and its Paul Ryan and Reince Priebus and Mitch McConnell etc who have to depart the Convention and leave it to them. Can you imagine a truly hostile take-over of the floor of the Convention that has majority Cruz supporters, plus next most vocal, a loud Trump constituency who would find common cause with Cruz, against the evil party leadership who just stole the nomination from their guy? How would Trump behave? This could literally split the party with either side storming out of the convention all in Cleveland and then various states would have to figure out - WHO has the rights to the nominee of the Republican party of that state? It could even be that the formal party bosses and moderates nominate Kasich as their official candidate, but the Cruz people - grassroots and most delegates - nominate Cruz, AND the Trump people claim ALSO to be the Republican party, and they nominate Trump haha. Then take this to a deadlocked Supreme Court 4-to-4 in judges, who can't decide. And depending on which state it was, in November the 'Republican' candidate might be Cruz, or Kasich, or Trump - or any two or all three, with or without the R beside their names haha. Gosh it would be a hoot.
But if there is a Tea Party vs GOP split, then the obvious real leader of the Tea Party would become Ted Cruz. And nobody would receive a life-time branding of a total loser, because the narrative would immediately become that the 'other guys' destroyed 'their' chance of winning in 2016, Tea Party and traditional Republicans blaming each other.
Now, if the DC Madam story breaks before Cleveland, then I do think Cruz cannot win the nomination. Then its possible Trump wins it even on second or third ballots but no matter how much Cruz is clever at the delegate math, he can't overcome a sex scandal and take the nomination. Then if its not Trump, it goes to Kasich. But with the DC Madam story, Trump could have plenty of life past the first ballot and Trump could emerge as the nominee by no later than the fourth ballot. If it goes beyond that, Kasich would gradually win enough of the non-Trump support to get it. Now, if Cruz is played out of the race by the DC Madam story, it means he didn't become the nominee and Cruz was spared the excommunication from the Republican party out of losing by 20 points to Hillary. Politicians with sex scandals do get second chances if they repent and obviously Cruz would repent tons and beg forgiveness. He might be good enough to run in 2020 but couldn't win it then. He also probably would not survive a re-election to the Senate out of Texas if he has a sex scandal hanging over his head, regardless of how much he repented. Almost all of his Senate fellow Republicans would privately smile broadly to that lost seat, even as it would further damage the minority they would have in the Senate against the Democrats.
(will do others next)
Tomi Ahonen :-)
Posted by: Tomi T Ahonen | April 13, 2016 at 11:03 PM
And what of the others
Kasich. He can't get to 1,237 before Cleveland, he is mathematically out of it, and his only hope is a splintered vote at the Convention where neither Trump nor Cruz can get to the magic number in the early votes and Kasich could start to pick up his rise from say the fourth ballot onwards. It could take ten votes, it could go all into the night; it could even be undecided after one day of voting and they continue the next day. But if Trump doesn't get it on the first ballot, he's not going to be the nominee. If Cruz cannot take it by the fifth ballot - when all delegates are unbound and we have seen how many Cruz was able to seat into the various delegations from the states - then Cruz is not going to be it either. Then its either Kasich or someone else.
Kasich has played all along the Mr Nice Guy routine and it will THEN help at that stage. He has consistently polled best against Hillary in head-to-head contests compared to Trump or Cruz - that will help gradually convert some who understand their primary choice cannot become the nominee and don't want the main rival to become it either. And Kasich would emerge as a compromise candidate. This could even happen as early as the fourth ballot but I think if Cruz can't take it by the fourth ballot, then its a SLOW process for Kasich to climb and it would go to say 8th or 10th vote before Kasich could get to above 1,237.
Kasich would lose to Hillary too, only not by as much. Kasich seems like a moderate when compared to Cruz or Trump (or Dr Carson or Rubio or Scott Walker or Mike Huckabee or Rick Santorum etc) but he is still a conservative, not moderate Republican. The difference between Kasich and most other conservatives this year, is that Kasich is a realist and he sees that some of the very divisive and hateful positions and rhetoric of the party is simply childish and stupid. He no doubt sees it as the obstinate party reaction to Obama as President and Kasich is smart enough to see that Obama would have been the ideal Democratic President for his time when he was in Congress, compared to say Bill Clinton.
Kasich emerging as the compromise after many rounds of votes at the Convention would alienate many Trump and Cruz supporters, not all of them but some of them. Those who would rally to his battle cry would do so reluctantly. The campaign would not be rich with cash, not rich with volunteer support and as it emerged that on many positions Kasich is yes, very conservative and thus out-of-tune with the mainstream electorate, Kasich would see his numbers also tank fast. He is not an inspiring speaker who can rally his troops like say a Reagan and the Convention will be half done by the time he is nominated, there won't be much left to try to fix rifts, by many grass roots Republicans who will feel they were betrayed or defrauded. That campaign will lose and Kasich will lose the Senate in that campaign too but possibly not the House (although Democrats would pick up many seats). In this case, Kasich would not be considered the total loser, he'd get most of the establishment singing his praises that he made the best of what was wrecked by Trump and Cruz, but still, Kasich would be a 'typical' losing Presidential candidate, so look at the political lives of say Al Gore, John Kerry, John McCain and Mitt Romney. He'd be out of the spotlight for a while, licking his wounds, but he'd have a future as a party elder, but he'd never get to run again.
So Paul Ryan? He is saying ever more emphatically that he is not going to run for President. Yet he clearly wants to and he is clearly planning for that possibility. He knows he cannot become the nominee - UNLESS the Convention is deadlocked past the fourth ballot. So only if Trump can't win it, and Cruz can't win it, only then can Ryan become an alternative to consider between Kasich, Rubio, Romney and anyone else suddenly wanting to be the savior of the party (Scott Walker, Carly Fiorina, Rick Perry, Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, Lindsay Graham, Nicki Haley, Condi Rice, Sarah Palin.. the list is almost endless)
But also IF the Convention is undecided after the fifth ballot - then a growing chorus will beg Ryan to throw his hat in the race. He knows that chorus will come. The more he insists he doesn't want it, the more they will come. The biggest threat to Kasich is not Rubio or Romney, its Ryan. If Trump and Cruz are out of it for whatever reasons, DC Madam or not - then the race is between Kasich and Ryan. And THEN one has to remember, Ryan is the chairman of the Convention. He can tip the scales to HIS advantage. He is the ultimate insider at the time when the insiders have the most control - the actual Convention. And Ryan is like Hillary in that way, that both have worked relentlessly to be acceptable to everyone in the party and having the support of everybody within the party (establishment). Kasich will be tainted by all the states he did not win, and by his lack of national name recognition and how boring he sounds. Now compare to Ryan who had this run already trialed once with Mitt Romney in 2012 - he would be a formidable rival to Ryan - and probably more ACCEPTABLE to Cruz and Trump supporters, if they see their man can't win it. Ryan could well become the nominee ahead of Kasich. We could see an interesting voting pattern with four peaks - first Trump on the first ballot, then Trump starts to fall and Cruz rises, tries to get to 1,237 but falls short - and then falls to see Kasich rise, get ahead of Trump and Cruz, but again fail to get to 1,237 until finally Ryan joins and rises to take the nomination.
Paul Ryan would also lose to Hillary but I think with the least damage. He is more inspiring as a speaker than Kasich. They are about as conservative. But Ryan is far younger and better looking. He could easily pull some legislative stunts to help him - and the Republicans - for the general election. Ryan would have a far easier time raising money and getting committed party support. He still would not win over all Trump or Cruz supporters - some who would definitely believe this was a conspiracy and thus with so little time, Ryan could not mount a great campaign for the Autumn. And he'd be stuck with a lot of the baggage of not just the Republican party bad image but also the bad image of Congress. He could pick Kasich as his VP but probably would pick someone from the outside (imagine Nikki Haley, Condi Rice, Kelly Ayotte, Jan Brewer). Still, Ryan would lose. But Ryan will most definitely be seen as having done the best of a bad situation, he'd only strengthen his hand to be YET AGAIN a front-runner in the early speculation for 2020.
Can anyone else win it? Its actually possible that Ryan will not ever actually put his hat in the ring, just waiting to be literally the last candidate, and someone else goes in before Ryan to then get the nomination. Rubio could be it, Romney could be it; or some very very dark horse but sudden emergency 'white knight' savior could be it - but I think that person would be outside the current field of gossip. So not Christie or Walker or Graham or Fiorina. Nobody who ran this time or who seems to be angling for it like Romney, Palin or Newt. So then a real real dark horse - Jon Huntsman, Morning Joe Scarborough, Condi Rice, Colin Powell, Nikki Haley - or someone outside politics like an actor or athlete or military person or business leader. Remember this scenario won't even start to play out until Trump and Cruz and Kasich are all locking each other out (and then the Convention will of course change the rule saying that you had to have won 8 states, by then they'll accept any compromise and open the nomination to anyone). The person would need to have near-universal appeal from the floor meaning almost certainly that there isn't bad blood and the nominated person should be seen as pure and not tainted by the game-playing up to that point. It won't be Romney haha, he wants it way too desperately.
This white knight savior of the party would not have been vetted in the press for a year, and there are likely to be all sorts of skeletons that will come out but the good part would be that most of Hillary's oppo research prep would be out the window and almost definitely that nominee would be a moderate who could distance his/her run from the nasty Trump-Cruz vitriol of the past year. He or she would lose to Hillary but note - there would be a honeymoon period with the new nominee (And the VP pick) where only the good parts are seen and discussed and the bad parts are not yet visible or discovered - much like a first date. So the polling could easily have this new savior polling ahead of Hillary for a while, until the reality set in. That person has no organization built, the fund-raising would have to start from zero, there was no platform or plan to coordinate with fellow Republicans and much of the Autumn would be spent just introducing the pair to the nation - with inevitable gaffes - plus most likely that candidate would be far out of his/her league on some matters needing to spend masses of time just reading up and prepping for the debates - which Hillary's team will insist must be done early, not late, in the campaign season.
But it would be the ultimate last twist in this unbelievable race. If things went really well, the race could turn out to be close (but the Democrats will win simply because of the dual surge waves of the female vote and the Hispanic vote). This candidate could be seen as the hero who really came close and would be the de-facto party leader and front-runner for 2020.
Thats how I see it from mid April..
Tomi Ahonen :-)
Posted by: Tomi T Ahonen | April 13, 2016 at 11:47 PM
Hi everybody
So the Electoral College projections are starting to come in. Morning Consult has done their first projection now for the November election comparing Hillary to Trump, Cruz and Kasich. Their model is based on 44,000 voter interviews during the past four months and is based on head-to-head interviews for the results of each state.
They find that the Trump-Hillary race would be a clear victory for Hillary, but not the 20 point election I expect nor even the 10 point race we were seeing by the previous projection, Morning Consult measured it as roughly a 5 point win - still significant - about the same as Obama won against Romney. Hillary carries all of Obama's 2012 states except Maine which Trump would be able to pick up more than in Romney's loss. Still, this is now the second major analyst to make a November election projection based on the Electoral College and obviously it would not be anywhere near close with Trump.
They also tested Hillary against Cruz and Kasich. Cruz loses about the same as Trump (actually loses slightly more) but essentially the same map as Romney loss in 2012. Kasich, however wins. Its a razor-thin race but mostly powered by his home-state Ohio win they also give him Pennsylvania and then a smattering of other states and its a close call.
I'm curious to see if any major analyst gives an Electoral College win scenario as their projection before the Convention for either Trump or Cruz haha. And Kasich, if he were to become the nominee - then he'd face far more scrutiny and the full press from Hillary and Democrats, his image now is an illusion because he is he least cooky of the nutty party haha. But I do agree definitely that of the three, Kasich would do best against Hillary. Its funny to see, Cruz doing worst. I wasn't quite expecting that, I thought he'd be roughly on par with Trump but that Trump would be the most toxic candidate ever to run and thus would fail more. Unfortunately we'll never get to measure that difference, at best its one or the other.
Now just as a pundit on those numbers. If Trump or Cruz can keep it to a 5% race against Hillary, then the House is safe and the Senate would only be 'in play' and not definite to flip to the Democrats. I am certain that the reality with either is FAR worse than 5 points, like I've said Trump would go down in 20 point disaster and Cruz might be of the scale of 18 points. But yes, if either is the nominee and if Hillary's general election is as much the under-performing as she's done in the Democratic race this time around (compared to 2008 when she had the fire in her belly) and its only a 5 point race - then yes, the Republicans might even barely hold onto the Senate.
One caveat, the Morning Consult report mentions that they based their interviews on Registered Voters not Likely Voters (those give different results as we know) and I interpret that as meaning - they have totally ignored both the rare surge voting of women and Hispanic voters (boosting Democratic turnout) and obviously they could not model in any disgruntled voters angry after a Cleveland result where either Trump or Cruz voters are going to be angry (if not both) which would suppress Republican turnout. If those two factors were entered into their model, that 5 point election projection could easily be a 15 point disaster to either Trump or Cruz haha (and a 5 point loss to Kasich, at least).
Still.. like I said, expect these projections to come - and this is where 'the rubber meets the road' - this is what real politicos take 'seriously' and will have nightmares now considering the choice between Trump and Cruz haha.
PS did you notice, several Democrats have started already to warn, don't get too over-confident. They are worried Democrats sit it out, confident that they'll win by a landslide anyway haha (remembering no doubt the over-confidence with the Al Gore campaign going into the last weeks of that race)
Tomi Ahonen :-)
Posted by: Tomi T Ahonen | April 14, 2016 at 01:51 AM
@Tomi,
Talking about Democrats...
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/h-a-goodman/sanders-become-democratic-nominee-even-if-clinton-leads-in-delegates_b_9657952.html
Posted by: Wayne Borean | April 14, 2016 at 03:39 PM
@Wayne
"alking about Democrats..."
So the Democrats envy the Republicans and want to lose badly too?
Talk about snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
Posted by: Winer | April 14, 2016 at 06:03 PM
@Winer
That's the same thing they said about Obama in 2008.
Posted by: Wayne Borean | April 14, 2016 at 11:07 PM
@Wayne
"That's the same thing they said about Obama in 2008."
That is a very bad argument. It is the same argument the (Tea Party) Republicans use to push a "real conservative" pointing out Reagan.
If the Democrats think old white left wing Bernie is like young black moderate Barack, they are wrong. Maybe Bernie can win the elections, but then for totally different reasons than Barack did.
Posted by: Winter | April 15, 2016 at 07:49 AM
That was my point, that both candidates weren't Establishment candidates, but because of grass roots support Obama became President. It appears the same thing might happen with Sanders.
This is a good thing.
Posted by: Wayne Borean | April 16, 2016 at 02:00 AM
Nancy Pelosi says a brokered convention will cause the GOP to implode.
http://thehill.com/homenews/house/276321-pelosi-predicts-gop-doom-if-trump-toppled
Posted by: Wayne Borean | April 16, 2016 at 02:32 AM
hi everybody
Just a warning... the recent numbers look WAY better for Trump than what I expected around this time. You'd think if there are only 3 candidates left, the two non-Trumps would be the strongest of the very broad field.. Cruz had underperformed in his best states and is somewhat under what I expected. Trump has also not performed to what the polls suggested in January but not by much, he is near to where he should have been. Its the THIRD dude who is a total dud. I thought it would be either Jeb or Rubio last year, and by January I had decided it was probably Rubio who would be the third man out, with a distant possibility for Christie or Kasich. Instead its Kasich. And has he 'earned' that position - no. He hasn't won anything other than his home state and he's doing miserably in the remaining states in terms of polling right now.
So now it looks like Trump could take something around 80 to 85 delegates out of the 95 on hand from New York on Tuesday. I thought he'd take 61. That means that Trump would claw back a significant part of his gap to what I originally projected and Trump would be at about 49% of all delegates awarded up to now (after NY) vs 51% when I made my projection. And then the next states to vote all also seem to favor Trump very well, where I thought the NorthEastern states would be divided somewhat where Rubio could take one or two, Cruz take one, and Trump take the rest. Now it looks like Trump will win all or most, and get the vast majority of the delegates available - again, more than I projected.
It looks now - not because Trump is particularly strong or having a surge - but because Kasich is way weaker than what I expected the number 3 guy (expecting it to be Rubio) to be, that Trump will be back on the exact 'glide path' to clinching the nomination on June 7. Lets say yip-pee for how Trump's sorry life in politics will end, but also would seem the hope of a contested Convention is not going to be.
Note one other thing, the math says Cruz will be eliminated after New York unless he has a miracle and amazing wins of lots of those delegates. He'd be mathematically eliminated from any chance of reaching 1,237 delegates now, one round before I thought he'd be (I thought he'd be eliminated after April 26). I think that will also suppress the enthusiasm for Cruz in the last races where 'lets have the other guy lose' is a far less compelling argument than 'help me win' haha.
The race will go to June 7, but the way the current polling is, I do think Trump will get back on track to be rather safe to clinch 1,237 delegates by June 7. Then three things happen - first the 'second ballot' shenanigans will become irrelevant and Cruz simply cannot snatch that from Trump (also means DC Madam story becomes less meaningful). Secondly, Trump will have six weeks of time to help heal the party and build consensus to his cause and start a whirlwind attack mission against Hillary - probably the dirtiest campaign ever seen - which should get most of the party to rally behind Trump. And third, it means we'll get to see his magical VP choice - and judging by all the names he's mentioned recently - its likely there IS no magic bullet candidate, that he's seriously gonna consider Christie, Walker, Kasich etc.
That all being said, this is now the best stretch for Trump. He is SUPPOSED to do well here, in the NorthEast and after that there are again some states where Cruz can put up serious resistance and its quite possible, if Cruz has a strong ground-game in California, that Cruz can just keep Trump from the magic number and he'd get to say 1,200 delegates or so, after it all is done on June 7. To start that, Cruz needs to pick up at least a few delegates out of New York and hope Trump stays well below 80 delegates.
We'll see on Wednesday, but I wanted to bring this to you guys, that the current math shows Trump at far stronger lead in these states that will still vote in April, better than I thought. This is where the non-Cruz non-Trump guy was supposed to be strong (Rubio/Jeb/Christie/Kasich) and Kasich at least so far, is not showing any signs he can collect any victories out of April. If Trump does sweep these states and take far most of the delegates then he's back to exactly on track to safely clinch on June 7.
And that - if you've read the GQ article speculating that Trump may be trying to sabotage his run because he needs a graceful exist where he can claim the victim martyr role - would mean Trump will be stuck with the nomination whether he wanted it or not. Could you imagine if Trump actually said at the Convention when he is nominated - no, actually i don't want it, give it to Ted, he's a better candidate haha...
As I've been pondering the two alternatives, would I rather see a contested Convention (which denies Trump) or see Trump nominated on the first ballot and then losing in epic scale to Hillary - I do want the latter for the simple reason - if Trump gets out at the Convention, he can forever claim he was robbed - and we'd hear his whining on TV for decades to come - with all the hatred that he'd be allowed to spew. But if he goes down in epic defeat in November, then he will be excommunicated from the media and we will be spared his nastyness evermore. It is my preferred option (but I won't cry if the nomination ends up not being decided on the first ballot haha).
Tomi Ahonen :-)
Posted by: Tomi T Ahonen | April 16, 2016 at 04:09 AM
OK, so let's look at some numbers. Assuming Trump is the GOP candidate, and Clinton is the Dem candidate, the average has Clinton winning by 9.9
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
If Sanders is the Dem nominee running against Trump the average has him winning by 16.3!
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-5565.html
That's a huge gap. So even though a Ted Cruz looks unlikely to be the nominee, I looked at his numbers. Against Cruz, Clinton averages 3.4.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_cruz_vs_clinton-4034.html
Against Cruz, Sanders averages 11.2.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_cruz_vs_clinton-4034.html
This is scary stuff for the Republicans. Cruz might beat Clinton. Any other match up would be a disaster. But wait, Kasich is still in the game! Clinton vs Kasich is a 6.7 win,
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_kasich_vs_clinton-5162.html
Sanders vs. Kasich is a 3.3 win.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_kasich_vs_sanders-5817.html
At this point the leadership of both parties have to be a bit concerned. As long as Trump is the candidate, both of Dem candidates are winners. Against Cruz it is clear that Sanders has a big advantage. Against Kasich it is obvious that Clinton has a big advantage.
The Democrats want Trump. They want him badly, because if comes to a brokered convention they have a fifty-fifty chance of fielding the wrong candidate.
I was wondering why Nancy Pelosi spoke so bluntly about how a brokered convention would be a disaster for the Republicans. If your opponent is about to do something stupid, let them do it. It is to your advantage to let them engage in a fratricidal knife fight over who is the nominee!
Except when their choice of nominee at a brokered convention could derail your own campaign. Then you sing like a canary.
I'm with Tomi. I'd love to see a brokered convention. I think it would be wonderful, and I'd probably eat too much popcorn watching it.
But a brokered convention could be dangerous for the Democrats, so the party insiders don't want one. A fair number of Republicans would rather loose with Trump than take the chance of riots on the convention floor.
So it looks like we'll be disappointed. So will Orville Redenbacher!
Posted by: Wayne Borean | April 17, 2016 at 01:40 AM
This may sound like it is coming from left field, but bear with me,
Phyllis Schlafly is a conservative activist, who is against abortion, gay rights, green activists, and was behind the major opposition to the Equal Rights Amendment in the United States. She also was involved in the resistance to Nelson Rockerfeller being the Republican nominee in 1964, which lead to the Barry Goldwater debacle.
In simple terms, she makes Ted Cruz look positively sane.
Phyllis Schlafly has endorsed Donald Trump. A group of the directors of Eagle Forum were horrified by this, and have moved to remove her as the chair. They back Ted Cruz.
One of the rogue directors is her daughter.
Will this impact the GOP race? I don't know. Yet. But it shows the fracture lines in the party are big. Very big.
Rachel Maddow on Eagle Forum
http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/schlafly-group-asunder-over-trump-endorsement-664763459824
Posted by: Wayne Borean | April 17, 2016 at 04:30 AM