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April 02, 2016

Comments

Wayne Borean


Heh. Kind of off topic, but Donald Trump has a new business...

http://doonesbury.washingtonpost.com/strip/archive/2016/4/17

Wayne Borean


Also kind of off-topic. We all know how the Evangelicals are active in the Republican Party, as are the Mormons. This appeared in the Salt Lake Tribune, and is written by a for,ER State Senator about the issues of Seclurism, Christianity, and Civil Rights. It is written from a particularly Americsn viewpoint, and reads damned odd from a Canadian or European viewpoint.

In part it shows how out of touch Americans are. In part it shows the fissures that have developed in the Republican Party. And in part is shows how under-educated, and under-informed Americans are.

http://www.sltrib.com/opinion/3769054-155/op-ed-christianity-outmaneuvered-by-secularists-will

winter

@Wayan
"And in part is shows how under-educated, and under-informed Americans are."

I just read an informative book (Dutch version):
"The Good Book of Human Nature: An Evolutionary Reading of the Bible" by Carel van Schaik and Kai Michel.

It is quite a heavy read which covers a lot of terrain. One point they make is that the writing of the bible was closed in the 2nd-4th century and the bible was codyfied in the 4th century. The bible has been frozen to the understanding and world view of the 4th century Roman empire.

This narrow minded reaction fits very good in their narrative. These are people who try to understand 21st century society and technology using a literal reading of a 17th century translation of a 4th century text.

No wonder they fail to grasp what is happening around them

winter

Another piece of evidence that Drmpf did not expect to get to the convention:


Donald Trump Assails ‘Rigged’ Delegate System, Saying He Chooses Not to Exploit It

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/04/18/us/politics/donald-trump-delegates-new-york.html?_r=0&referer=http://news.google.com

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

Watching CNN live waiting NY results and it was astonishing to see the panel even as we've discussed this issue here on the blog. So what was that? CNN has that dual table setup where one table has the partisan hacks with their spin, and the other table has the independent experts (including the omnipresent David Gergen - who is darned good). So they didn't as the partisan table, but they asked the independent experts table (Anderson Cooper asked) the four experts if all agreed, that if Trump did not get 1,237 on the first ballot, he cannot win on the second and subsequent ballots - and yes, all four experts agreed.

Its astonishingly 'certain' (and I totally agree but mostly experts will rarely agree this much). And yeah. Trump has hired more staff, he's relegated that Corey Lewandowski to a less-than-campaign-manager role - and one of Lewandowski's people already resigned as he was also thus downgraded and felt he was being marginalized. And Trump has thrown in a ton of money now for the home stretch (reportedly 20 million dollars for TV advertising) so Trump really is now trying to win it before June 7 (or get close enough to then convince unpledged delegates to put him over the top before the first ballot).

A changed race.. also Trump is behaving far less in his Trumpish ways. I wonder how long his discipline lasts, and when is the next outburst. I would imagine that Paul Manafort has some massively costly and iron-clad contract clause that he (Manafort) gets to control Trump's messaging between now and the Convention. Expect Trump to stay on script and avoid spontaneous situations and will even steer away from some news topics that may come up, simply biting his lip. That obviously abandons his OODA loop advantage and 'downgrades' him to 'just a normal politician' but his base is now too much committed, they won't abandon him for this.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

They're still counting NY (80% done) but its clear on the Democratic side after today Bernie is statistically eliminated (he'd have to win more than 75% of the remaining delegates, and as he's not led Hillary once in the RCP average of polling, that is simply not going to happen). He still has some weeks left until he is mathematically eliminated ie Hillary to clinch but this race is now over. Thats why Bernie made his desperation move talking that he'll win New York because he knew, if he didn't (or if it was really razor-thin loss) he would be out of the race for all practical purposes.

On Republican side, the interesting count is to see whether Trump can take all 95 delegates or if he has to surrender some to Kasich and if Cruz can pick up one or two.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

So how close can it get?

Its funny, now that I looked at my forecast from January for the GOP race, its actually, by coincidence, essentially the 'guide path' to a contested convention. If Trump can stay on that glide path or of course above it, he locks the nomination but if he falls below the glide path, he's headed for a contested convention (with under 100 delegates to spare, with my forecast from January). I told you in my updates that Trump was in trouble and under the glide path. Now with his near-sweep of New York, he is back onto the glide path while nominally under my original forecast. My model in January said that after New York Trump should be at 51% vs Cruz at 34%. Reality is now 50% vs 31%. Wow, how spookily accurate was that forecast haha, and yeah.. he's back on track - by the skin of his teeth, to clinch on June 7.

Then it comes to individual races that are probably gonna be close. Not next week (Trump will win all five) but later states like Indiana, Nebraska, Oregon etc and then the big day June 7 especially California on that day.

I did a couple of simulations now with my original model, plugging in all states that are done, and with current data on the remaining races where it exists and plugging in the latest national polling for the rest of the states, instead of that national polling which existed in January ie Trump is now polling far higher. With that, and that we have a weak Kasich instead of Rubio, and that Cruz had underperformed compared to the original, I estimated the remaining races and ran the model with several scenarios to the end. I get typically Trump just a hair under clinching, about at 1,200 delegates, with Cruz just under 800 and Kasich a bit over 200.

If Trump does end with 1,200 delegates (37 short) after June 7, he'll definitely win it on the first ballot because they'll have six weeks of time to bribe - sorry, convince - enough unbound delegates to vote for Trump. Easiest is to strike a deal with Rubio for VP, and as I said, he'll then also try to get Kasich to come in, instead of Rubio. So if Trump does get to 1,200 then he'll be the nominee on the first ballot. But how much below 1,200 is his real 'deadline' haha, the line where he is dead, because as we know, if Trump doesn't win the nomination on the first ballot, he becomes toast and a footnote to this year's race. In that case, likely Cruz will win it but in several ballots and it might go to someone else if Cruz can't get to 1,237 either.

But gosh, it could not be more on a razor's edge. The margin is at 1.5% and any one state going a bit better for either Trump or Cruz could tip it either way. Now, after the New York strong win (and again Kasich's incredibly lame performance in the region where he was supposed to be competitive) next week could see again Trump overperforming. He is a good campaigner if he has discipline and the past two weeks or so, he has been under discipline (thanks to Manafort and his people). And note, up to now, Trump has not used, what in past elections was the nuclear option - carpet-bombing TV airwaves with negative ads. If I was Trump's strategist now, that is what I would do. Destroy Cruz via TV ads and hold Trump far away from TV interviews where he can do worst damage to his own campaign. No town halls, no open press questions, no late-night Tweeting and no phone calls to TV shows and radio talk shows. Discipline, stick to the talking points on the stump speech, just keep his troops fired up but no more controversies - then destroy Cruz the old-fashioned way (in ways Cruz has not yet been hit but note - Trump has had plenty of negative TV ads, so if Cruz turns up that volume now, with what budget he has left, he can't significantly change the tone of anti-Trump ads. Those haven't really hurt Trump, its been Trump himself who hurt his campaign).

Last note. Trump just dumped 20 million dollars for TV ads to the rest of the nomination fight race. At least half of that, maybe three quarters will be California TV ads alone, as California is a must-win for Trump else he won't get to the number of delegates he needs. Cruz has a solid ground game in California and has been campaigning there for a while now. Anyway its a BIG number for a struggling Billionaire (did you notice, one of his airplanes got caught with a registration payment lapsing.. not allowed to fly haha). Its money Trump is lending to his campaign - he wants that borrowed money paid back to Trump in full. The only way that can happen, is if his campaign continues and has rich fund-raisers pay those amounts to him so he can recover his loaned money. At some point this part of his scam becomes widely discussed - that while he claimed to be self-funding, he all along only lent himself the money and intended to then have rich Republican donors pay his loans off so in effect when he promised to not be beholden to rich donors - in reality he was just spending their money in advance..

Anyway - he won't get that money back - ever - if he loses the nomination. He's now stuck with this run, if he spares the money now, he can't win California (and can't win on the first ballot and therefore can never win the nomination and his dozens of millions of dollars lent to the campaign will never be paid back in full - haha worse - he can't even declare bankruptcy on this (his usual gambit) because the guy who lent the money is HIMSELF..). But even spending massively won't guarantee the victory. Will be painful money for Trump to dish out. But he has to now spend it, to be able to win it. And then...

..if Trump falls 20-30-40-50 delegates short after June 7, then he'll do literally anything to bribe, sorry, convince those unbound delegates to vote for Trump on the FIRST ballot. His team will even try to bribe some who are not bound by their state-rules, but who have stated support for Cruz - to defect on the FIRST ballot - to vote for Trump instead. Yes, rides on Trump Force One are cheap payments for that sweet victory for such delegates who would switch over from Cruz to Trump on the first ballot. He'll do anything and then very large amounts of money tens of thousands of dollars worth - could be the VALUE of what is exchanged - secretly, with great Trump attorneys locking everybody to extreme secrecy about it all - but Trump does have lavish properties he can utilize for such uses (regardless of whether Trump wins the election - many delegates would be wary of accepting a promise relating to the White House considering how horribly Trump is polling against Hillary - that will be far worse by July).

Anyway my point. If Trump has spent say 35 million dollars of his own money and about 15 million of his volunteer donations - the 35 is a loan from Trump - to get within a couple of dozen delegates, then yes, Trump could pay 50 delegates 20,000 dollars each (buy each a new car) ie pay another million - to lock the nomination on the first ballot. Most of those delegates won't be that greedy (it will be a buyer's market - far more delegates for sale, once real value exchange is on the market so Trump probably average payout would be around say 5,000 dollars not 20,000) but yeah, most def, pay for the travel costs to Cleveland plus throw in a week at a luxury Trump resort with nominal price of say 400 dollars a night, you'd be at around 5,000 dollars in the bribe - sorry enticement - to support Trump on the first ballot haha.

So so sooo close. And if Trump now uses strict discipline on his campaign, assuming Kasich is the useless waste he's been, and that Cruz gets burned on TV ad bombardment, then Trump could 'easily' clinch on June 7 with a point or two percent to spare. And on April 29 the Supreme Court will have the hearing about the DC Madam, which could make the whole heated race over and done in one press release haha...

More popcorn and more 18yo single malt whisky chasers

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

PS

Fresh NY Mag article on Manafort's takeover of the Trump campaign and relegation of Lewandowski to forward-man role for campaign events. Confirms a lot of the stuff we've been speculating on - haha including last line of story - Trump is yes, like almost all megarich - a cheapskate, watching the pennies... so yes, this campaign was run on a shoe-string with only an illusion of tons of money haha..

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/04/how-paul-manafort-took-over-the-trump-campaign.html

Tomi Ahonen :-)

cornelius

With 98% reporting in NY we now have Clinton at 139 delegates and Sanders at 106. My prediction in Wyoming was really bad as I totally underestimated Clinton but my NY prediction of 133 - 114 is quite close (I slightly underestimated Clinton again). But I have the excuse that there was no opinion polling in Wyoming prior to the actual election.

Another interesting development is that Clinton picked up another 40 or so super delegates. If the super delegates are going to defect in droves as Sanders hopes, they are not showing any sign of that intention. I guess attacking the Democratic establishment and accusing Clinton of secretly receiving funds from the Democratic Party did not convince any super delegates to side with him yet. IIRC Wayne was saying that Sanders' strategy of shaming the "bribed" super delegates may cause them to switch to Sanders. So far it seems that they are either not "bribed" or shameless.

Sanders now has a dilemma. Getting increasingly nasty seems to be the only strategy that might get him more pledged delegates, but that will push the super delegates in Clinton's camp. Or he can turn nice again but that will only preserve Clinton's lead and might not necessarily get him any super delegates. Either way he can't win and he knows it. FBI is his only hope now.

Wayne Borean


Didn't say Sanders would shame them, but that their delegations would shame them.

You've got a state were Bernie gained 60% of the delegates, and those delegates are leaning on the state super delegates. Yes, we could see that having an impact.

Or a state where the state Democratic Party went Bernie, but the super delegates didn't...

Wayne Borean


As to Trump's change of style, I did predict this. Whether the early Trump is the real Trump, or whether this was planned from the start, I do not know.

I do know that I wouldn't have done a deal with the ass we saw on stage. Nor would a lot of people. But Trump has done a lot of deals, and something like 90% of them have been successful. And I've seen enough video evidence of Trump acting like a normal human being that I'm sure the stage Trump was an act.

I have no idea what the real Donald Trump is like. Nor do most American voters, and that is a scary thought.

winter

@Wayne
"I have no idea what the real Donald Trump is like."

A narcissist has a special kind of personality. That personality is more like a psychopath (minus the sadism and lack of self control) than a normal human being.

http://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/narcissistic-personality-disorder/basics/symptoms/con-20025568

All the Donalds we have seen are equally real. And equally unreal.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

have now a new blog on the presidential race for you. I'm outlining how Trump 2.0 is just a bug-fix of Trump 1.0 but to also expect a real total revised Trump 3.0 by the Convention. Enjoy

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

hi cornelius, Wayne and Winter

cornelius - no, Bernie was statistically eliminated on Tuesday. He knew he needed a real victory out of New York so that the rest of the way he doesn't need to win over 70% of the remaining delegates - as bad as it got, he now needs 77% of whats left. He is not mathematically eliminated but its a statistical certainty now, that Hillary wins.

Furthermore, there is literally no scenario where the actual Democratic party MEMBER who leads the pledged delegate race and the popular vote, would somehow lose to the non-member Independent rival who hasn't even been contributing to the Democratic party. No, its a total pie-in-the-sky fairy tale by the Bernieistas that superdelegates could abandon Hillary now and go to Bernie. It totally is never going to happen, its as silly as Mexico paying for Trump's wall. Its not happening. Bernie has now seen it is ending, he is smart enough. There is no hope whatsoever, ever. Hillary also clearly will win the Presidency and that means she's the incumbent in 2020 so this was in a very real sense Bernie's last rodeo.

How will he exit the race and when. He was supposed to go to a campaign event but when the clear drubbing out of New York became obvious, he suddenly took a flight back home to Vermont. He had a long long sad think there. His staff and people all want desperately for their Bernie to continue the run. He knows it futile now. Bernie is also old enough to think about his legacy. What and how does he want it remembered as. I think Bernie will take the time till the next votes next week, and after losing most of those (he's behind I think in every poll in those states) he might contact Hillary about dropping out shortly after next week Tuesday - but Bernie knows he still has some leverage, he wants a good speaking slot at the Convention (he'll never be Hillary's VP and he knows that). He probably has some people he'd like to get jobs in the Hillary campaign with promises of a White House gig later possibly. It seems to me, that Bernie would be that kind of person who has some in his staff he thinks dearly of, and would want their best.

Now Hillary.. is a vengeful machiavellian beast but she's the ultimate realist and she'll take Bernie's offer and even toss in some sweetener. She remembers how Obama treated her in 2008, how it felt to lose, and how so many of her supporters felt about Obama. Hillary needs every single young voter Bernie can energize to show up in November not for her but to flip the HOUSE so Hillary can govern the way she wants. I would guess that Hillary will not in any way embarrass Bernie by approaching him but let Bernie take his time and when he's ready to talk to her, she'll drop anything and everything and give Bernie a surprisingly warm and long private conference and that is where Bernie's walk into the sunset starts. Oh.. but also... Hillary would definitely offer Bernie some gig in her administration at a relatively harmless level (haha Secy of Housing and Development) or she could also conspire with Chuck Schumer to get Bernie some nice chairing post in a nice Senate committee if that was more how Bernie might want to end his career.

One more note, in the interim period, you might see the Bernie CAMPAIGN staff have vicious nasty things to say about Hillary but increasingly not Bernie himself. It will be one reality check by Bernie himself to get to terms with the fact that he has lost. Its a totally other thing for the lowly paid fiercely loyal long-hours slaving all-sacrificing never-sleeping Bernie army to accept that defeat. So many may be fighting that bitter level fight while I expect we should start to see Bernie himself pivot to being Mr Nice Guy again, and wanting to leave that as his last impression (remember how Rubio abandoned the penis size level discussion when he saw his own end already staring at him in the mirror just before Florida).

On the super delegates yeah, that was a stupid gambit to suggest Hillary was somehow evil to help her party - Democrats - with fund-raising. Its even worse as Bernie signed the same papers but hadn't bothered to contribute any time for that except for the three who had endorsed him. Hillary has been campaigning also with plenty of Democrats who are super delegates who haven't (yet) endorsed (in public). Obviously Hillary knows they will endorse her eventually. But the fund-raising power that Hillary has (as does Bernie now) is utterly beyond a normal Senator, Governor or House Member. So bringing her in to help a Democrat here or there is nice of her - and GREAT politics - and it helps lock up her MASSIVE lead in super delegates. The smart move by a politician, when you have a clear disadvantage is not to bring it up - that was a clear political mistake. And it also had the undesired effect yes of even more who endorsed Hillary instead. Bernie can't get those super delegates who openly endorsed Hillary to flip. That is a fool's errand. He can only hope to win over some of those who haven't yet endorsed - and now, after New York - that became impossible. Only a fool would now go against the next Democratic President, when she's essentially the presumptive nominee - and spit in her face by endorsing her doomed rival. None of the super delegates are that foolish.

LOL the FBI as Bernie's only hope. No, thats also a forlorn hope. But the best hope is a health episode, nasty thing to hope for a rival but if Hillary had a heart attack, that could still save Bernie's run.

Wayne - on Trump real vs act, haha, thats the theme of my new blog. One total act is Trump 1.0 we just saw that show end three weeks ago. The new act is Trump 2.0 just unveiled in the past weeks and will run till July (I do now think Trump can clinch because of this clearly freshly-installed discipline. Thats all it takes for him to stay safely above his glide path, Trump is naturally that gifted and all his early moves in Trump 2.0 are the right moves). But a THIRD separate fake Trump will appear as his next act, Trump 3.0 at the Convention and into the fall campaign. If Trump ever was to win the Presidecy, I do think Trump 4.0 in the White House would be close to the real Trump - he'd feel he has nothing more to hide from and the kind of 'real bastard' would emerge to the fullest. Where most would have been groomed to be very smooth politicians - come on, even W Bush was preaching after September 11 that the USA is not at war with the Muslim faith - Trump has never in his life had to learn to be politically correct and this brief straight-jacket he is now on in Trump 2.0 (and Trump 3.0) will come off the moment he is sworn in. But that we will never see haha, as he cannot win in November.

winter - haha brilliant, all the Drumpfs are equally real.. so they are.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Millard Filmore

"The new act is Trump 2.0 just unveiled in the past weeks and will run till July"

It seems that Trump-2.0 didn't last the week, in Indiana he talked about war crimes (waterboarding and worse), Lying Ted, and so much more:
http://digbysblog.blogspot.com/2016/04/trumps-alleged-restraint-didnt-last-long.html

John Fro

It's the 21st here and the DC Madam story has not broken yet, nor have the Panama Papers revealed any major American names. While Trump, HRC and Bernie Sanders all have lots of press support to keep stories quiet, Ted Cruz has almost no supporters in the press or punditry (excluding mouth-for-indirect-pay Mark Levin and a few others), so if the story was about Cruz, we'd probably have heard. The problem with the DC Madam story is that there's almost no way to prove the list the lawyer would release is the once kept by the Madam.

Given his personally troubled history with women and women-kind, I would guess Bernie Sanders was the name on the list. However, he's now in campaign miracle mode, needing HRC to be indicted on racketeering or similar crimes for selling US secrets through the Clinton Foundation. That investigation has been inching along at a snails pace, waiting for key witnesses to come forward. Considering that no mention has been made of the investigation in conservative media for a few weeks, it looks like the odds of an indictment have gone down. There's probably little reason to tar Bernie at this point since he's almost out of the race.

The problem for the Republican party is that both Cruz and Trump would be perfectly happy to work outside the party. Cruz would like to front a socially-conservative agrarian movement to bring back the 1950's and Trump would be perfectly content to create a cult-of-personality/NY-establishment hybrid "movement" of some sort, as long as he gets all the attention. Even Bernie Sanders would be happy working outside of mainstream politics, but he was always a protest politician, not a revolutionary.

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