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April 02, 2016


Tomi T Ahonen

Hi BlackCircle

I did underestimate Trump in the beginning as did everybody else. I was one of the very first to change my mind, say it was possible for Trump to win and then again, one of the very first to say Trump would probably win. BUT - Some who are in the Trump bandwagon (sounds like you too) think he is inevitable and keeps growing - I pointed out - correctly - when his growth stopped and he's been stuck at the 40% range ever since (when his votes are averaged nationally). In fact he's only won 37% of the votes since the voting started i February across all votes past 2 months (while obviously he then converted that to more delegates).

Trump MAY get the delegates. I said in January I expected Trump to hit 52% of the delegates on June 7 the last day of voting. Then in March I did a recalculation and said he was still on track to clinch 1,237 delegates but now it was razor-thin and he might only get to just over 50%. But Trump has kept under-performing compared to my initial projection. Not by much, but consistently just below. NOW - this past week - has been a disaster and suddenly he's fallen below Cruz in the last 3 polls in Wisconsin - two of those are by 10 points. Trump is stumbling, not yet collapsing but stumbling. Now, if Trump wins Tuesday, he's on track again. But I go by the signs (I've called most of the votes correctly so far on both sides) and the signs say - Trump will lose Wisconsin on Tuesday (unless the DC Madam story breaks and Cruz is on that list).

And if Trump loses Wisconsin, then your confident statement that Trump will get the required delegates is no longer likely. Sorry. Do the math. He essentially has to win Wisconsin or he falls too much below and then he'll only get to just below 1,237 at best.

Now on a Cruz + Trump pairing. You haven't thought this through, have you? Trump will NEVER be VP to anyone. If Trump is on the top, why in hell would he ever take the second most disliked politician IN HISTORY as his VP, to add to his own unfavorability (yes worst in history). Cruz would not bring in a contested state, Texas should be safely red for Trump or he cannot win. So why would he ever pick Cruz? Even the Hispanics hate him (almost as much as they hate Trump himself). No, he'd prefer Kasich who can at least deliver Ohio. And if not Kasich, if Trump has to make a deal, if he can't break 1,237 otherwise, he will do it with Rubio. He won't make a deal with Cruz, I promise you.

Cruz meanwhile cannot make a deal with Trump which gives Cruz the top slot. And if Cruz finishes second, he knows he CAN get the top slot if he can either grab more delegates in the second, third and fourth votes - or if he can partner with Kasich (or even Rubio at the first or second vote). Cruz will never take a VP deal with Trump if Cruz can calculate ANY however slim path where he is on the top of the ticket. He knows that in 2020 he'd be facing an incumbent Hillary, its easier to fight her now than four years from now.

On Kasich 70% that is only if Cruz collapses (sex scandal etc). If its a two-way race the LIKELY spread is 60-40. If Trump finishes weakly - its his tendency - and if Kasich can shine as the last man standing with the rest of the party now united behind him, he COULD get to 70% but its not the likeliest scenario as I wrote. But its not implausible (if Cruz is out). Trump has a solid impenetrable ceiling of 45% (when votes averaged nationally, so some individual states go above it but others below it). Now it seems that Trump is falling. He also has an ironclad floor of about 25% that he cannot fall under. So Trump could have a bad finish to his run and end around 30%. Thats well within reason. Trump cannot finish in say 20%. So if its only two-man-race and Trump gets to 30% then obviously Kasich would be at 70%.


Sorry, let me say that again HAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAH

So, have you looked at ANY of the numbers? You are aware that the REPUBLICAN party analysis after Romney's loss said that the party cannot win, unless it IMPROVES in four areas - youth, women, blacks and Hispanics. Compared to Mitt Romney, Trump is WORSE for youth, WORSE for women, WORSE for blacks and WORSE for Hispanics. Meanwhile Hillary is FAR better on women and Hispanics than Obama and nearly as good with blacks and only modestly below where Obama scored with youth in 2012 (but nowhere near as strong with youth as Obama was in 2008). It is MATHEMATICALLY IMPOSSIBLE for Trump to win if he loses women, youth, blacks and Hispanics. There are not older white men. IT IS MATH.

Kasich has a chance against Hillary. A slight chance. Cruz and Trump are lost causes. MOST of the conservatives and Republicans have already said so. They cannot beat Hillary. That is why the Republicans are desperately clinging to hopes about an indictment about the emails (which most legal analysts say is a bogus case, she has not broken any law).

As to Hillary's disapproval ratings. Wrong. Trump's disapproval ratings - just out now, three separate polls this week - are THE WORST IN HISTORY. Cruz is the second worst of this year. Hillary is nowhere near Trump. So yeah, you clearly don't go by numbers, but please do. We on this blog deal with the facts not silly fantasies and imaginary delusions. But I will be here to stand by my analysis and forecasts. If you want to have an honest conversation, I will be here. We will know about Trump's delegates after June 7 which would be the first moment we can start to evaluate which of us, you or me, was more able to correctly analyze this current situation. You may be too much attached to Trump to not see the truth...

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Hubert Lamontagne

I have this feeling that Trump is about to go full meltdown. Sure, he's the Teflon candidate, but I think even his slow electorate is starting to slowly catch on that he's kindof a psychopath.

Hubert Lamontagne

EDIT: Replace "psychopath" with "narcissistic personality disorder" (which fits Trump like a glove).


If is Trump the one exposed then I can imagine his excuses, like for example:
- being between marriages at that time (whatever that time was),
- booking girls for his son(s).

I might be that Trump would deny everything too.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

So following on with the DC Madam. Now more gossip is out that it is Cruz and really nothing suggesting any of the other four (except one story suggesting Hillary has a gay history). Meanwhile as the Supreme Court has decided to consider the case, we can be pretty sure they won't decide it on Monday so Wisconsin's election should go without the story breaking - and Cruz should win Wisconsin. But lets say it is Cruz and he is out before New York. Suddenly the race is tossed into the air and a whole new ballgame starts.

I took out my deep model, plugged in all the latest in-state polls from the remaining races, and recalculated the model on two scenarios. One for the best case for Kasich, the other for the best case for Trump. Because there are proportional states and winner-take-most states among the winner-take-all states, and some states give districts by winner-take-all or winner-take-most, that means definitely Trump and Kasich will both pick up some delegates in a two-man-matchup. But because most states are winner-take-all its also likely to be quite lopsided either way. And as Trump seems to have a ceiling and he has recently been stumbling, its likely that if Cruz is out, most, but not all, of Cruz's supporters would go to Kasich instead of Trump. With that, what did I find. The most optimal Kasich scenario gets us to June 7 with Trump at 918 delegates, Kasich second with 633, Cruz third with 548 (and Rubio fourth with 179 delegates). Kasich would be nearly 300 delegates behind Trump when the primaries are done, and he'd have achieved two thirds of the level of delegates to Trump but Kasich can get ahead of Cruz for second place. And as Trump is not past 1,237, it would go to a contested convention.

On the other extreme, if Trump picks up just enough Cruz supporters and gets his game in gear, and attacks Kasich with Trumpian style, and wins most of the remaining races, often with very slim margins but thats all you need in a winner-take-all state, Trump could clinch on June 7, getting just over the number reaching 1,279 delegates (1,237 is the threshold to clinch) where Cruz ends up second with his 548 delegates, Kasich would end up third with only 299 delegates (and Rubio fourth with 179). So if Trump is really lucky the rest of the way, he still just might clinch it, but only on the last day, and by a very thin margin even in the best case scenario.

Now, lets take the average of those two, and consider this as a 'target' outcome. If Cruz wins Wisconsin but then drops out, and Kasich and Trump have about as good luck both, winning some and losing some of the remaining races, essentially splitting the remaining contests, then Trump wins the most delegates but does not clinch, having 1,098. Cruz finishes second with 548 delegates. Kasich comes in third with 466 delegates (and Rubio 179). If the DC Madam story turns out real, and it eliminates Cruz in the next week or so, that is very close to how the race will end this year. Trump 1,098 vs Cruz 548 vs Kasich 466 vs Rubio 179.

Obviously then, if Trump can strike some kind of deal with Rubio, he could clinch. There would be a lot of establishment pressure to avoid that but what does Rubio really care about the establishment. Then what of Cruz's delegates. If they are unbound, all Trump needs is a bit over one in four Cruz supporters to clinch on the first ballot even if he doesn't get a deal with Rubio. And what if Cruz only suspends his campaign and asks that his delegates to be bound to him on the first ballot. How much of a stink would that be, to force often very religious and very conservative party loyalists to vote for the prostitute-using Cruz, with a public vote at the Convention. There would be a lot of hand-wringing about that, all while the Trump candidacy hangs over their heads if these delegates are declared to be unbound now with Cruz's sex scandal.

Then Rule 40 may be in play (you have to win 8 states or you cannot be placed into consideration for the first ballot). Trump will want that to be enforced, it would release Rubio delegates to be unbound - Trump could pick up some of those and its possible Kasich won't reach the 8 state threshold. If its a first-ballot where only Trump and Cruz are even formally entered, and all remaining delegates are unbound, with the sex scandal, Trump wins easily on the first ballot. Of course Kasich supporters and the party establishment would not want this. Its likely they decide to eliminate Rule 40 haha.

So then it goes to the first ballot. Assuming Trump isn't over the threshold and hasn't gotten to a deal with Rubio, then its most likely that whatever was the vote Trump got on the first ballot, that will also be his peak. From that point, into the second, third (and fourth) votes he will see an erosion, even if he picks up some unbound delegate votes, he will lose more out of those who were contractually bound to vote for him on the first ballot - based on their home state primary vote - but who don't like Trump and will switch to voting for Kasich from the second ballot onwards. As some states require the delegates to be bound through two ballots (25%) and some even three (10%) that means that it won't be until the fourth ballot when each delegate truly votes their heart and by then no matter how many Trumpians there are in the room, it won't be half of the convention, and Kasich will win it.

So in short, if Trump cannot win on the first ballot then our final matchup in November will be Hillary vs Kasich. Who knew? So its either Trump clinches or gets his deal before the Convention (or right on the first ballot, squaking through) or if Trump can't win on the first ballot then its Kasich (probably only on the fourth ballot or possibly already on the third).

How would the general election matchup change? Quite a lot - and then it depends on will Trump become the total election-spoiler or will he play nice haha. Lets consider the Trump plays nice part only, for now. Kasich would win Ohio but he'd lose to Hillary by roughly the same margin as Obama vs Romney in 2012, so say a 5 point election rather than 20 points against Trump. If Kasich only picks up Ohio from Obama 2012, then Hillary adds North Carolina. If Kasich also picks up say Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, then Hillary would add Georgia, Arkansas and Arizona. But in rough terms, 5 point election. With that, the Senate would flip but the Democrats only would get something like a 2 seat majority and the House would remain in Republican hands but their majority would shrink a bit to say 20 seats.

And then the Trump wrecking ball scenario. I can't imagine Trump being quiet and contented if he goes into the Convention only a hundred or two delegates short of clinching, and Kasich is in third place with something like half the delegates he had, and then they give it to Kasich. His supporters would be rioting and Trump - the strong man - cannot just lay low and do nothing. He'd run some nasty tricks against the Republicans from perhaps running as independent third party (not getting on all state ballots anymore but he'd do it out of spite, for a shoestring budget only doing TV interviews and of course participating in the TV debates). Trump would go out of his way to attack Kasich at every point. Or he could simply say to his voters - take revenge, you were robbed, vote for Hillary, she's better than Kasich.. And if Trump played dirty, then it could be a 12 point loss to Kasich where Hillary could even flip the House.

But yeah. If Cruz is on the DC Madam list, and we should know in about a week, then it becomes a two-man race and the most likely scenario is Trump gets 1,098 delegates and Kasich end with 466. And a lot of games around the rules about Cruz's (and Rubio's) delegetes and the number of votes etc..

.. just when you thought it could not get more bizarre

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Wayne Borean

Let's look at the DC Madam case first.

1) There have been rumours about Hillary having Bi-Sexual or Lesbian leanings that go back about twenty years. I think that they are smoke, i.e. that her enemies would accuse her of being Atilla the Hun reincarnated if they could get away with it, but they could be true. Hillary is part of the generation that hid stuff like that.

2) I like Cruz as the DC Madam customer. Those who scream loudest about family values are the ones most likely to be hypocrites, just like those who are rabidly anti-gay are most likely to be in the closet.

3) Trump? Damned possible. I travelled a lot on business, did quite a few large business conferences, and there were always these super attractive ladies hanging around. Some of them were the wives of attendees (people I knew). Some appeared to have no connection to the conference. But the conference was the only thing happening... So yes, I could see that. And as to using a New York madam, he could have decided that was too close to home. Against this is that Trump does seem to travel with his wife a lot.

4) Much of what I said about conferences also applies to Kasich, he could be taking advantage of being away from home.

5) Sanders? Possible. But I really don't see it.

Personality wise, my money is on Cruz, with Trump being far less likely. I don't see Sanders, Kasich and Clinton as the one on the list.

Wayne Borean

Now, as to the numbers, I really like what you've got Tomi. I can come up with some additional situations though...

1) Kasich clinches on First Ballot because the Cruz and Trump secret service guards get into a shoot out and both candidates die on the eve of the convention.

2) Trump clinches on First Ballot after both Cruz and Kasich suspend their campaigns. It later comes out that both men were paid $250 million to withdraw.

3) Jeb restarts his campaign, and merges it with the Kasich campaign. The men agree to flip a coin to decide who is VP. Meanwhile Trump calls whites 'un-disciplined' causing a mass exodus of supporters, and Cruz dies of uncontrollable laughter.

4) Arnold Schwarzenegger announces a challenge to the U. S. Supreme Court over the 'Natural Born' citizen clause, and asks for an immediate stay on the election. The Court overturns the clause, and allows the election to go ahead with Arnold as a candidate. He wins the Republican nomination at the convention, and then the General Election.

5) A meteor strike on the Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland wipes out the entire infrastructure of the Republican Party. There is no one to make new rules, so the party fails to field a Presidential candidate. Also in many states it is now too late for Representative and Senator candidates to get on the ballot, so the Democrats win by default taking 80% of the seats up for grabs.

Yes, I'm feeling silly.

Tomi T Ahonen

LOL Wayne, brilliant.

Tomi Ahonen :-)


Sadly (and most surprisingly) the GOP decided that guns won't be allowed at the convention. I wonder, did the GOP radically change their stance on guns? Anyway, the good news is that they didn't mention anything about chemical weapons, rocket launchers, grenades and all that good stuff. So there is still a chance that we'll see some kind of fireworks at the convention.

Wayne Borean

For those wondering why the USA is currently limited to two main parties, there is a partial explanation at the end of this article about the death of the Whig Party, and birth of the Republican Party.

Wayne Borean

Ah, I missed that. Thanks Cornelius. I was wondering if Republican management would have the courage of their convictions!

Wayne Borean


Slight change - Sander won Nevada

Wayne Borean

Re my comment on the earlier thread about the different groups of Republicans, one group I mentioned was the group that has religious objections to abortion. Here's an article about how those beliefs have caused problems for women.


The war on women continues

Kasich won't say who should be punished for abortions

Wayne Borean

And an article comparing Donald Trump to L. Ron Hubbard...


The Onion explains how a contested convention woould work:

Wayne Borean

HuffPost says Trump has the dirt on Fox News

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi all

Ted Cruz has kinda responded to the rumors that he is on the DC Madam list, saying he's always been faitful to his wife (they got married in 2001). And gossip says therefore Cruz will say he only used the prostitutes before he was married...

So first, its still speculation but this sounds like Cruz knows it will break and he wants to get ahead of the story (in any case will be a rough time for the wife, gosh). And if Cruz says it only happened prior to the marriage.. would be pretty inconvenient for an attorney to then be found to have paid for sex - it is a crime in DC and in Texas haha - but he might survive it. Obviously he'd have to do that awkward press event with his wife by his side, and asking forgiveness..

But if it IS Cruz, gosh will his credibility as the religious and law-and-order guy be damaged. And would THAT put the second ballot and beyond then in doubt - many who NOW think the'll abandon Trump to vote for Cruz.. may find ProstituTED to be too much, some yes would go to Kasich - but some might then stay with Trump after all. Gosh it could be epic.

So lets see, its only about a week of time from that attorney's original 2 week deadline left, we could hear this week and yeah... yesterday when I googled all English-language news stories about 'DC Madam' there were only three that had been published in the previous 24 hours. Now the noise is growing, there are about 40 stories (all about Cruz, nobody else being gossipped to have been a client. Oh, and one story mentioned that Dick Cheney was also rumored back in 2007 to be a client haha... yeah, shoot that man in the face, I would love that as a bit more disgrace for the Dickiest man in politics). BTW talking of Cheney - Trump's unfavorability is now worse than Cheney at his worst (while Obama's favorability is above where Reagan was in his eighth year at this same time)

Tomi Ahonen :-)


Apparently DC Madam was a big fan of the Republican Party. Why else would she have Ted Cruz's phone number in her contacts book.

Wayne Borean

@Tomi and @Cornelius

First, I trust Alex Jones as much as I trust Ted Cruz. Both are in my not so humble opinion dangerous lunatics. Demagogues.


As I said above, if there is a name in the D. C. Madam phone list, Ted Cruz is likeliest.

The fun part is it won't do the damage you think it will.

Ted Cruz supporters come from two major camps.

1) Libertarians - who think that morality laws, like the ones covering prostitution shouldn't exist, and therefore mostly won't give a damn.

2) Evangelicals - who won't desert Ted Cruz either. Why? Because REPENTANCE is a get out of trouble card with them. All Ted Cruz has to say is, "Yes, I was a sinner, but I've repented and the Lord has made me new!" and they will forgive him. Really.

This has bite several church's on the ass before. There have been several cases where churches have had abusers (both child and spousal) claim that they repented, and the church in question forgave them, AND DIDN'T TAKE BASIC PRECAUTIONS.

In fact they've done what you and I would consider totally stupid things like putting a known pedophile to work in their children's program. Or marrying one who says he wants children to a naive young lady. Or insisting a battered wife go back to her abuser, and excommunicating her when she refused.

While I listed it as 'Evangelicals' under number 2, his supporters come from several communities with differing belief systems. I used Evangelicals as a short hand.

There are groups that are likely to not like this. While Mormons and Catholics believe in repentance, both faiths have had bad experiences with people who have claimed repentance in the past, and are more likely to want proof. Like say, twenty years of not reoffending.

So yes, if it is Ted, and it does come out, it will have an impact on his popularity levels, but it won't kill his campaign. It may allow Trump to lock in the nomination by June 7, because Cruz followers aren't Kasich followers. But it may nt too, because Trump and Cruz were fighting, and his support may go to Kasich to show Trump the finger.

Interesting days. Pass the popcorn!

The comments to this entry are closed.

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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