The End Game Scenarios in US Primary Race - Trump likely has to give VP slot to Rubio to avoid deadlocked convention

March 15 Super Tuesday produced interesting and mixed results in the race for US President. On the Democratic side the race is even more clear. But on the Republican side while Donald Trump essentially swept the races, the contest became more muddled and arguaby the outcome is now worse than it was just before the results. It now does seem like the Republican party is headed to a contested Convention. So lets look at each of the five remaining candidates and how they might still win it, and what other possibilities are out there for them.

KASICH 146 DELEGATES

John Kasich cannot clinch the nomination with a majority of delegates. There are not enough delegates left, even if he won all that remain, he would fall short of 1,236 which is the magic number to clinch on the Republican side. There are only 918 delegates left so Kasich would fall short even if he somehow pulled the miracle of winning all that is left. That does not mean that Kasich cannot win the nomination but Kasich does need a lot of luck going his way now. He needs essentially all the luck.

Kasich can win via the delegate hunt either by getting the most of all delegates if nobody else gets to clinch either; or if Kasich gets the most of non-Trump delegates and Trump falls short of clinching 1,236 delegates. Lets see how these would play out. In the perfect case, Kasich now is able to consolidate the moderate vote, from Marco Rubio supporters and the undecided voters. He would need for Trump’s support to fall a bit from its current peak of 40.5% that Trump received on March 15. If we say Ted Cruz only gets to about 15% of the vote in the remaining races and Trump is held to about 35%, then Kasich would keep the remaining about 50%. If this level held nationally, then Kasich could essentially run the board on the remaining race. He would need to be perfect in winning all remaining races and even that is not enough, he would also have to pick up the vast majority of the proportional (and unbound) delegates that remain. They are in states that are favorable to Kasich (Pennsylvania, Oregon, Rhode Island, New Mexico etc). Then Kasich would also have to win the vast majority of the votes in states where there are congressional district delegates won on winner-take-all basis. That is a kind of proportional race where again the moderate vote is likely to dominate in most of the big states with such delegates, specifically California and New York. If Kasich runs the table on the remaining states, and of these delegates that are not purely winner-take-all, with his 50% votes, Kasich took 65% of those delegates (Trump 20%, Cruz 15%) then the math works out just barely, that Kasich ends with most delegates, about 850, compared to 815 for Trump and 505 for Cruz.

Kasich would need to be perfect now from here till the end. Note he cannot afford to lose Arizona next week, a winner-take-all state where Trump and Cruz both are ahead of Kasich in the latest polling, but those polls were taken when Rubio was still in the race. If Kasich can get the party to join and support him (they distrust Trump and hate Cruz) and if Kasich gets broad local support like say Senator John McCain in Arizona, he can theoretically do this. Note, he needs a lot of luck, in that Trump won’t crush Cruz, but that they nearly split the remaining delegates. But Kasich can still win the delegate race and if Kasich has the most delegates, where nobody clinches, Kasich will be the nominee. The party would prefer him because he has clearly the best chances against Hillary Clinton in the general election. The ticket would almost certainly then be Kasich with Cruz (Trump would never agree to be VP)

A more likely scenario for Kasich is that he won’t catch Trump but picks up more delegates than Cruz from now till the end and finishes with second most delegates. If Trump doesn’t get to 1,236 delegates and Kasich finishes second, with say 700 delegates to Trump at say 950, then Kasich could build a coalition of non-Trumps via Cruz and possibly also Rubio, to then become the Presidential nominee. Its conceivable that Kasich gets there from as low a level of his own won delegates as 650 (when 1,236 are needed to clinch). So if Trump finished with 1,100 delegates, Kasich 650, Cruz 550 and Rubio 172, then if Kasich can just get both Cruz and Rubio to join ‘his side’ against Trump, Kasich can become the nominee. He needs to finish ahead of Cruz (who has 412 delegates now) and for Trump not to clinch. Then its up to the negotiations of a contested Convention scenario where Rubio would play kingmaker.

To get to 650 delegates (with Trump not clinching), Kasich would only need to win about 50% of the non-Winner-take-all delegates (including unpledged and congressionally distributed delegates) and then win just over half of the delegates of the remaining full winner-take-all state contests. This is quite plausible, as long as Kasich now consolidates the non-Trump and non-Cruz votes, and gets to roughly 50% of the total votes in the remaining states. That is a tall order, as Trump has climbed to just over 40% of the votes already, and that was before Rubio was out. Trump might now get to 42% to 45% and then no matter how poorly Cruz does, Kasich can’t get to the level he needs. Its still a race but he is the severe underdog. Then if he doesn’t beat Cruz, Kasich will be in the VP hunt. But Kasich might still become the Presidential nominee if the convention is deadlocked after many votes. I’ll deal with that possibility later in this article. Now lets take..

CRUZ 412 DELEGATES

Ted Cruz had a bad, very bad, un-Super Tuesday on March 15. His campaign made several tactical mistakes. Cruz lost Missouri by 2,000 votes out of over a million cast. He fought for Missouri, he knew going in, that of the Super Tuesday states, Missouri was probably his best bet, being mostly a winner-take-all state (15 of the state delegates go to winner-take-all but the rest are by congressional district) but one that is near Texas, has plenty of conservative and religious voters and as Kasich and Rubio were stuck fighting for their home states of Ohio and Florida. North Carolina was a proportional state so nobody was going to fight for it as hard, and Illinois was far more friendly to Trump. Cruz should have prioritized Missouri far more than he did. Instead Cruz wasted money and effort to briefly fight for Florida (a state he had no chance of winning, and where Rubio was clearly losing by all the polls, so he didn’t need to go destroy Rubio) and neither did it make sense to go waste money in Ohio. Just the last debate, if Cruz had bothered to attack Trump half of the opportunities he had, Trump would have lost more than those 2,000 votes that was the difference in Missouri, and Cruz would have taken 15 more delegates.

While Cruz is the clear number two in the race, he is essentially now without any aces left in the game. He is like an army that ran out of ammunition. All the best states that were supposed to favor Ted Cruz as the candidate, have gone, and almost all went for Trump instead. Cruz will pick up random few delegates here and there, but unless the game is dramatically changed, he cannot get to the nomination. Not because its mathematically or even statistically impossible. (Cruz would need to win 90% of all remaining delegates to clinch the nomination - that is statistically impossible while mathematically still possible; and for Cruz to get the most delegates, if Trump is kept to say 950, Cruz would have to win 65% of the remaining delegates and Kasich kept to essentially nothing). Cruz can plausibly get to the most delegates ahead of Trump without anybody clinching, but that would need a huge change in the game now. A huge change. And Cruz had been hoping to get to face Trump one-on-one, thinking he’d then destroy Trump in the debates. That road was now demolished by Trump.

Again, we saw this scenario developing. Trump was signalling it all along. It makes it all the more bewildering that after two debates of heavy attacks on Trump, which clearly damaged Trump (and helped Cruz) why did he suddenly relent last time. Now Trump said he won’t debate again. And bizarrely also Kasich immediately joined in and said, he too won’t debate (rather than mock Trump for being a coward, effectively disarming all who would have attacked Trump for this). And now Cruz has his last joker card removed from his hand. He is helpless. He could probably yes, destroy Trump in a one-on-one debate, and do a lot of damage even in a three-way debate even if Kasich was continuing his Mr Nice Guy role, but now? Cruz has nothing left to try. He is out of ammo. He can only helplessly watch as the remaining primaries go to states that are moderate, that are mostly Northern states, that are often ‘blue’ states where Democrats tend to win and where Republicans are often moderate - and watch how his national polling of 30% won’t translate to even 25% of the delegates.

Cruz does have a strong base and has plenty of a lead, he’ll pick up some delegates definitely in the remaining states mainly because some still have proportional delegates. But his strength in caucus states is also ending. The last state with a caucus is now Utah, next week. Then all remaining states are primaries. And several of the more ‘blue’ states have high minimum thresholds like New York, Connecticut and Washington state, which have 20% thresholds. Cruz may well not hit that threshold in those states and be cut out of any delegates awarded.

Cruz’s more likely road to victory is that Trump doesn’t clinch, and Cruz finishes a clear second, ahead of Kasich. To do that Cruz has to pivot strongly to the moderate side and try to get some support from his party. He was not served well that the least feisty rival, the most moderate rival, Kasich is the one left as the third wheel rather than Rubio. Kasich has plenty of ‘party establishment’ support but better than that for Kasich, both of the remaining rivals are deeply distrusted or hated by most in the party establishment. Cruz is exceptionally poorly placed to pick up support from his party, against Trump. In practise, Cruz now needs to monitor two races and stay between the surging Kasich and hope that Trump remains under the level of clinching. If Cruz can finish second, he has a good chance of becoming the nominee, but Cruz strongest chance is if Trump is held to below 1,064. Because Rubio’s 172 delegates would be enough for Trump to win the nomination even at that level - by picking Rubio as his VP. So in terms of practical numbers, Cruz best hope is for Trump to finish under 1,000 delegates and Cruz to finish second. Then it doesn’t really matter if its 999 delegates for Trump, 660 delegates for Cruz and 640 for Kasich, as long as Cruz is the highest non-Trump finisher in delegates, he has the legitimate call for being the nominee of the party as long as he then builds the coalition with Kasich (and most likely also Rubio) to get above the 1,236 total delegate level. It would mean a severely fractured party with Trump making a nasty scene but Cruz does have a viable path to become the nominee, but now, he does not control his destiny. If Kasich outperforms and finishes with more delegates than Cruz, or if Trump can get to at least 1,064 delegates, then Cruz will be left at the altar.

TRUMP 691 DELEGATES

Trump essentially ran the table on March 15, where yes, Kasich won his home state of Ohio but those really don’t count. Of everything else that was on the table, Trump won. He even snatched Florida from Rubio who should of course have won his home state but Trump had led in all Florida polls for six months now. Trump has however, run a bad campaign regularly damaging his own prospects. So consider the competition. Normally in most years its a good thing when the front-runner sees a low level challenger drop out like now Rubio or earlier Dr Ben Carson, Chris Christie and Jeb Bush. Except this does not hold for Trump. Any modestly competent junior campaign manager could show Trump that he cannot let the race become a two-man race, and the more rivals hang on in the race the longer, the better it is for Trump, precisely because of the ‘winner-take-all’ states (and also winner-take-all congressional districts) where if Trump has a ceiling of 40%, if its a two-man race, he loses 40-60 but if its a five-man-race he can easily win with the exactly same limited 40% by winning 40-20-20-10-10. When it was clear Cruz was his main rival, Trump should have stopped attacking Jeb and Rubio, and try to let them hang on in the race as long as possible, and only attacking whoever was strongest of his rivals, ie Ted Cruz, to keep him at or under that 20% level. That Rubio quit now, is really bad news for Trump. It almost guarantees that Trump cannot clinch with 1,236 delegates. But if Rubio had stayed in the race on a hopeless race in third (or even fourth) place, it would have helped splinter the non-Trump vote more. Because Trump appeals across the board to all types of Republicans, he would do well in a broad field in the various mostly moderate congressional districts of say California and New York state. Now instead, Kasich gets to consolidate those and will pick up many that Trump would have won, had Rubio remained in the race.

But thats water under the bridge and Trump isn’t someone to worry about past mistakes. But we as observers should note, Trump’s campaign is full of mistakes and lost opportunities. Had he run a really smart campaign, he’d be at near 50% of the national vote of Republicans (not 37% what he has averaged since the start of the voting) and he’d be near to clinching by now. Instead, he is now in jeopardy of not clinching by June 7. So lets start first off, with what does Trump need to actually clinch the nomination.

Trump can clinch the nomination outright, its a tall ask but not impossible. Out of all proportional delegates (including districts awarded by winner-take-all) he would need to win 55% of the delegates which is not far above the about 42% to 45% of the national vote he now holds (probably, as he’ll pick up some of the Rubio supporters as he quit the race). As many of those states have high minimum thresholds, and the way the rules are written, the guy who is leading in the votes overall, gets more than his share of the delegates. Then Trump would still need to win 2 out of every 3 delegates in the remaining winner-take-all states and he’ll just hit 1,236 delegates. Trump certainly cannot clinch before the last day of voting, June 7, but now, that is not the most likely scenario anymore. It is however, very plausible, clearly well within statistical possibility while not statistical probability. And note, Trump leads in almost all in-state polls we’ve seen everywhere, and his main challenger for winning among the remaining 918 delegates is no longer Cruz, it is now Kasich who lingered in third or fourth place in most in-state polling, so Kasich has to win over voters who recently were for Rubio or even Carson. In pure math terms, Trump has to win 59% of all delegates outstanding and as the polling leader now, who has moved above 40% and his nearest challenger nationally was at under 30% (Cruz) before Rubio dropped out - that is certainly within reason but its not the most likely scenario for Trump.

Its because of his ceiling. As we’ve seen, Trump has a solid ceiling he can’t pierce. He now was at 40.5% his best day of voter support yet, but that not even 50% of the votes. I think his actual final ceiling is close to 45% (nationally averaged) but Trump is so much prone to self-induced damage to his campaign and his reputation, that he may well have stalled and see his support fall from here to the end. Even if Trump climbs to 45% of votes, then to go from that to 59% of the remaining delegates is a tall ask. Something like 55% or 52% of the delegates remaining is far more likely. Its almost certain that Trump will take the most of the remaining delegates, but he could take as few as 320 (35% of the remaining delegates) and if Cruz and Kasich split the remainder, Trump would still technically win the most of the remaining delegates, but then end up with just 1,011 total delegates at the end. Most, but not enough to clinch, even if he was to form an alliance with Marco Rubio. The main issue is now, how many delegates can Trump pick up of those 918 still outstanding. It could be as few as 300, it could be as many as 600. 545 of them (59%) is enough to clinch the nomination and end with Trump at 1,236 delegates. But only 373 (41%) is what Trump needs, to get to the magic number if he adds the delegates from Marco Rubio. Something like 430 delegates (47%) is what I think is most likely, as I studied the remaining races and the three men left contesting. Its essentially the same level (slighly below) what Trump has won so far. That is why Trump is now willing to ‘play out the clock’ in the race, to not debate anymore and to go hide. He feels he will end up with enough delegates and such a dominating lead, that whether its with Rubio’s support or maybe by outright clinching the nomination, Trump can sense he has won the race. And to underline his point he is threatening violence at the Convention if Trump were to be denied at that time.

So the most likely scenario I think is that Trump finishes between 1,064 and 1,235 delegates and Trump announces Marco Rubio as his VP. The rules of the Convention are then ammended enough that Rubio’s supporters can vote for the Trump-Rubio ticket and Trump is pronounced the winner. Cruz and Kasich supporters will be very unhappy but they will feel that Rubio at least is a reasonable VP. The Convention will not actually splinter into a fight. Note, Trump will be in the driver’s seat and he will also negotiate with Kasich in this case, and while Kasich now says he won’t join with Trump, if the math is clear on June 8, that Kasich will end with nothing, or Kasich can be VP to Trump’s failing Presidential bid (or else it will be rival Rubio), at that time Kasich may well have a change of heart. And I do think Trump would prefer Kasich as his VP, judging by how poorly Rubio did even in his home state of Florida. But also Kasich does seem like an exceptionally well anchored man of his convictions, and one rare candidate who is likely to stick to his word and not join Trump. So a highly likely scenario is that Trump is the Presidential nominee and Kasich is the VP, if Trump finishes with under 1,236 delegates and in that case Trump may be well under 1,000 if Kasich has more delegates to throw in.

I’d say the second most likely scenario is that Trump clinches with 1,236 delegates, maybe with a few dozen to spare but it will be only barely above that level. The third most likely scenario is that Trump still gets the most delegates but its under the Rubio VP level ie under 1,064. That Trump finishes say with 950 delegates and Cruz with say 750 and Kasich with say 600. This would be the ‘war’ scenario, where an unholy alliance with Cruz and Kasich would get to the delegates to clinch but Trump who had won the most delegates and most states, would be denied. A Cruz-Kasich ticket would emerge and Trump would raise all sorts of hell both at the Convention and thereafter, including a possibility of a run as an independent, or probably as bad, endorsing Hillary Clinton out of spite.

And if Trump is below 1,064, he’d then try every negotiating trick and every way to bribe and cajole his rivals to somehow join his ticket. He’d try to get Kasich on board, he’d try to do some tricks to get some voters to defect on the second ballot. And if he could not get there any other way, Trump would even offer the VP slot to Cruz. I cannot see Cruz finishing second and accepting Trump’s VP slot, if Trump cannot clinch without Cruz. Because in that scenario, Cruz can see him on the top of the ticket if only Cruz can convince Kasich (or worst case both Kasich and Rubio) to support Cruz. But if Cruz finishes THIRD, then yes, I can see Trump making some deal with Cruz to seal the nomination ahead of Kasich. And Cruz would calculate that he’s better off as Trump’s VP nominee where Trump cannot win, than going as Kasich’s VP where Kasich might win over Hillary and Cruz would be stuck being VP for 8 years facing a very tough third-term election then in 2024. At least if Trump loses in 2016, Cruz as VP would be the instant front-runner for 2020.

Because Trump is so far ahead and because he also leads the national polling and those states that have not yet voted but have recently been polled, its very likely that Trump does end with the most delegates. But unless Trump gets to 1,064, he won’t be the front-runner to win the nomination at the Convention. If Trump with Rubio cannot clinch, then its likely the party ‘establishment’ with the various party rules will be used to tilt the balance just enough that a Kasich, Cruz or even more wild ticket will be selected without Trump. And that would mean likely violence, could even be riots at the Convention in Cleveland. But do remember that Trump is indeed a capable negotiator and he is not playing with normal rules. He is utterly without any moral compass, his word is not worth the letters it takes to spell Drumpf. He is ruthless and he is oblivious to any rules or laws. He can easily bribe to get to his way, and make as many wild promises as he feels he needs, without any connection to reality. How many Ambassadorships to London will he promise to various party leaders, how many times will be fill his cabinet posts by overpromising, who knows. But if he fails to get to 1,064 delegates, then the master negotiator will come to play. I would not bet much against Trump even in that case, as his political rivals seem to have been played for suckers at ever level up to now.

One more note. After the votes have been counted on June 7, and if Trump finishes under 1,064, its VERY unlikely that the actual Convention will remain contested. Trump will negotiate behind the scenes feverishly in the intervening six weeks to the Convention, to lock his nomination, dealing with Rubio, Kasich and if needed, even Cruz to get some package agreed, where Trump is on top. And note, it can be something silly unprecedented and wild, he could promise his VP is ‘Co President’. He could promise to commit to a one-term Presidency (a promise he’d break of course). He could do the wildest secret side deals of selling government land to relatives of his VP or whatever. And Trump is rich enough to actually bribe a rival to become ‘independently wealthy’ through some deals via the Cayman Islands, so that regardless of whether the ticket wins in 2016, that rival candidate would suddenly be a genuine multi-millionaire and not have to ever worry about begging for money from donors again, but retire rich. And once again, considering how regularly Trump screws his partners, I would hope those rivals in those deals would bring in the best lawyers to read the fine print and get the money in a bank account in the Caymans before they commit to Trump haha... But yeah. I expect that while the delegate hunt is likely to be non-decisive by June 7, that when the Convention starts, the nominee will be decided. And by most scenarios that is going to be Trump. I’d say Trump-Rubio is the likely ticket at something like 70% probability. An actual contested Convention where we don’t know who will win, and the vote goes to 3 voting rounds or more - that is very unlikely, less than 10% chance. Trump will conclude his VP negotiations well before they gavel the Cleveland Convention to open.

RUBIO 172 DELEGATES

Now I do need to mention Rubio even though he dropped out. First off, he doesn’t actually control his delegates even as he suspended his campaign. He can only recommend to his delegates to vote for someone if he so desires (or not). By various state rules, in most cases, the delegates are bound to vote strictly for the person their state selected them to vote for, in the first round. But after the first round of voting, most become unbound delegates. And in most cases, as Rubio is not going to qualify to be the nominee for President, that usually means, the Rubio delegates are actually unbound from the first vote. Now what actually happens, it depends if there is a genuine contested Convention or if there is a deal. If say Trump has nearly the delegates, say he finishes with 1,200 and he only needs 36 more, and he does the deal with Rubio for VP, then the rules for the Convention no doubt will be amended to allow Rubio delegates to vote for the Trump-Rubio ticket in the first vote. But if its really tight, say Trump finishes with only 1,100 delegates (is 136 short) and Rubio only has his 172, then the Cruz-Kasich alliance could raise all sorts of complaints and demand a straight count, and insist the Rubio voters vote as their states demanded (ie vote for Rubio) or perhaps to vote their conscience, and Trump be denied by a relatively small handful of votes. But after the first round of voting, almost all delegates become unbound, and then the wheeling and dealing would really begin. Some voters in some state delegations would defect to a rival camp, etc. And who knows what would happen. The Cruz or Kasich teams alone are essentially too small to take on Trump but if Cruz and Kasich form an alliance, they can get ahead of Trump. But some of the delegates are truly unbound to begin with. Pennsylvania’s delegates are kind of the weirdest ‘free agent’ delegates right off the bat who can vote how they want (I guess, its not again very clear).

Now the main question is, will Trump clinch. If he clinches the nomination, all else is irrelevant and he can pick whomever he wants as VP and it will not be any of his rivals. But that is no longer the most likely scenario. Its more likely that Trump cannot clinch and he only finishes with most delegates, and then its most likely that Trump gets close enough to be within Rubio’s delegates to clinch. That means Rubio will be in the king-maker position, because obviously equally on the other side, if Rubio were to side with Cruz and Kasich, he could make that ticket the winner with Trump denied. If Trump gets to between 1,064 and 1,235 delegates, then its primarily Rubio (and secondarily Kasich or Cruz, whoever finished third in the delegate hunt) who picks which side wins. And why would Rubio pick Cruz-Kasich? The Cruz-Kasich side (or Kasich-Cruz) will already have their VP. The guy who finished with more delegates is the nominee for President and the number 2 guy is the VP, so lets say its Cruz-Kasich. What can they offer Marco Rubio in that case? Peanuts. A speaking slot at the convention? Trump can give that too. And what else? Secretary of State - IF they win. Before that, Rubio gets nothing. Rubio gets nothing unless that ticket wins. Even then, his two rivals are FAR ahead of Rubio for 2020 and 2024.

But consider Trump. Trump would offer Rubio the VP slot. Now, instantly the nomination convention is celebrating Rubio alongside Trump. Because Trump is so much the distrusted outsider, Rubio could play the three months of the general election race to build ironclad relationships with the party. He’d be the base darling, in the way Sarah Palin was alongside John McCain in 2008. Rubio could easily land a Fox TV job because he is now jobless after his term as Senator ends. After Trump goes down in flames in the general election of 2016, Rubio would be the clear front-runner of his party for 2020. If he wanted to, he could run for the Florida Governor position in the interim years and then be the clear leader going into the 2020 race as the future of the party. Cruz can’t offer Rubio the VP slot because he has to give it to Kasich (or vice versa). So as Rubio isn’t particularly married to the elders of his party who keep telling Rubio to wait his turn, he’d seem like the perfect opportunist to jump in with Trump as his VP. Now, Trump is too smart the negotiator. The moment he has Rubio locked, he’d go to Kasich and get Kasich to switch. Kasich will have more delegates and Kasich is the stronger general election candidate as VP and would deliver Ohio for Trump while Rubio probably could not deliver Florida. But Kasich may be too much the old-fashioned ‘straight arrow’ politician to actually agree to that evil alliance and betray his partner-by-then Cruz. But don’t be surprised if suddenly in late June the story breaks that Kasich will be Trump’s VP and the suddenly the feverishly contested Convention sees peace breaking out. And Rubio would be screwed once again.

And one more wrinkle. Its still possible that Trump stumbles badly in the final months and finishes second in the delegate hunt. If Kasich really catches fire, he could finish slightly ahead of Trump. Or if Cruz had his dream scenario of somehow Kasich quitting and it being the two-man race, and Cruz finishes ahead of Trump. But yes, if Trump finishes a very strong second in the delegate hunt. Then whoever finished ahead of him (it would be Kasich, can’t be Cruz) that rival would only have barely more delegates than Trump. Now Trump would go do the deal(s) needed with Cruz (and possibly also Rubio) to take the nomination. And the same calculation I have for Rubio here, it applies to Cruz if Cruz finishes third. In that case Kasich’s VP slot is worse than Trump’s VP slot, because Kasich might win but Trump is certain to lose. And being the VP of the sure-to-lose Trump would be far better for the next race in 2020, than being stuck as VP running to get Kasich re-elected and waiting till 2024.

DEADLOCKED CONVENTION

It is plausible that Trump finishes above 1,064 but under 1,236 and is unable to make the deal to get to be the Presidential nominee. He is bizarrely still belittling ‘Little Marco’ and humiliating Chris Christie and just acting like the jerk he naturally is. Rubio is ‘Latin’ with a vengeance, being Cuban and as a race, particularly proud. He might simply say no to Trump out of the delight of screwing Trump back. Note there will be pressure and promises from the party for Rubio to reject Trump. In the first vote, each delegate is (or should be) bound to whichever candidate their state voted for. So unless there is some very clear alliance agreed by Cruz-Kasich before the Convention by which some rules are then amended at the last moment, the first vote will then result in no winner. Trump gets say 48% of the delegates, Cruz 28%, Kasich 17%, and Rubio gets 7%. And after that round, the delegates are unbound and the circus begins. Some of those delegates who were bound to vote for Trump, may actually not like him (to begin with, or after the heated race and all the nastiness of Trump). The party will try to tilt the game against Trump as much as possible, as it will be so obvious Trump is headed to a total catastrophic general election loss to Hillary that would cost the Senate and might even flip the House. So from the second round of voting, its likely Trump’s support erodes, not strongly, but somewhat, to say 45%. And then some Rubio voters go to Kasich, some to Cruz, but its possible no alliance ever forms between Kasich and Cruz. And then the voting goes on several times and something close to 40-30-30 voting emerges, Trump slight lead and neither of Cruz or Kasich being able to convert enough to get into the lead.

It could go to a 40-20-40 race with Trump-Cruz-Kasich and still - again, nobody at 50%, remain deadlocked. With two strong candidates, its essentially mathematically certain that one will prevail. If its three reasonably strong candidates, a true deadlock is possible. Then none of the rivals really has any incentive to step aside. Rubio’s chances to be king-maker will be gone. The race is between the three, and each has a die-hard core who won’t give in, meaning none can actually climb to 50%. And if bad blood has built between the three that no pairing of two as the ticket is possible, then it could end up deadlocked. Note, however, that if Kasich consolidates the party establishment, and Trump stays stubborn, it would be Cruz’s dwindling support who would have to accept the VP slot behind a Kasich Presidential nomination, even if Cruz had more delegates than Kasich going into the Convention. Cruz’s bad relationships with the party establishment would come to haunt him and give it to Kasich. But it would require Cruz to finally accept this outcome, and he might stay stubborn and refuse it, insisting its either Cruz or Trump, they finished as top 2 in the delegate hunt.

Then it would get interesting. If it remained deadlocked after one day, then the party would start to float serious compromise candidates. Someone who is not any of the top 3, who would be acceptable to all. And one who would not pick any of the three as VP either. Now, note, Trump would never accept any such compromise in any case. Cruz would fight tooth and nail against it too. But now, the previous rivals would be back in view. What about Marco Rubio or Chris Christie or (haha Dr Ben Carson) or Jeb Bush or Lindsay Graham or Rick Perry or Mike Huckabee etc. And then three other names would loom large - Mitt Romney would desperately love to be asked. Sarah Palin would be once again floated. And Paul Ryan would be the clear favorite compromise choice by everybody, who would resist the urge with all his might, because at this point, it would be yet another epic failure for him. But Paul is a nice guy who likes to accept the responsibility when enough of his peers beg him, and he might become the crisis consensus compromise candidate. And Trump would take all his marbles with him and sulk. Maybe run as independent or else, like I said, nearly as bad, he’d just endorse Hillary Clinton.

SO ITS TRUMP - RUBIO

Almost every scenario has Donald Trump as the Republican nominee. He’s the only one with still a valid statistical chance to clinch. He’s more likely not to clinch but end up with the most delegates, and come close enough that he can pick Rubio as his VP and win the nomination. He might convince Kasich to be VP instead. Its even possible Cruz finishes third and Trump makes a deal with Cruz to be VP. The chances for Trump not to be the nominee are something less than 10%. Then its more likely to be Kasich than Cruz but that the ticket is those two, Kasich for President with Cruz as his VP (or vice versa). A very very distant chance is that someone other than the current 3 finalists is the nominee that would require not just a deadlocked convention but many rounds of voting with no alliance forming and three pigheaded candidates refusing to budge. Only then someone else might emerge as the emergency compromise candidate, and that is most likely then Paul Ryan.

Trump Rubio is the most likely ticket. Trump could clinch the nomination and get to pick his ideal surprise VP candidate (we’d all love to know who it was, that was the genius idea by Trump when he plotted this run). And there are long-shot chances that Kasich or even Cruz might be Trump’s VP. But Trump is almost certainly the Republican nominee. But he won’t get to clinch before June 7 by any means. So this messy race will continue on the Republican side for three more months.

HILLARY 1,599 DELEGATES

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton had a massive March 15 running the table on Bernie Sanders and padding her victory in a couple of the states with a large increase to her delegate lead. She is now at 67% of the delegates needed to clinch. Of the remaining delegates available, Hillary only needs to win 33% and she is the nominee. She leads all the national polling and most state polls, and was winning 55% of the votes on March 15, so even if she just holds this level of support, she’ll clinch on May 17 (when Kentucky and Oregon vote). But before that date her home state of New York votes with a massive delegate haul and Hillary is likely to win significantly more than 55% of those delegates, I project Hillary to actually clinch on May 3 (Indiana). She would have wanted to have dispensed of Bernie long before May but this is still a month earlier than the last day of voting and after the death-march she had with then-candidate Barack Obama in 2008, Hillary will take this with a smile. It gives her plenty of time to heal any broken feelings among Bernie supporters and get the Democrats to join in a big happy tent for their Convention.

BERNIE 844 DELEGATES

Bernie has reached the level of 35% of the delegates needed to clinch. He is collecting just slighly more than one half of what Hillary has, when Superdelegates are included and it means that while mathematically Bernie still has a chance, statistically, he is almost out of it. Bernie would have to win 67% of the remaining delegates to clinch. By April 19, when New York votes, Bernie will be statistically out of it and realistically Hillary is the nominee. After New York, Bernie would need to somehow win over 80% of the remaining delegates and that is of course impossible. But because they keep awarding all states proportionately, it does take a long time to clinch. As I said, the date of the mathematically elimination for Bernie won’t come until in May.

Bernie won’t become VP. He will have a big speaking role at the convention. Hillary will give him some nice job in her administration. He will of course endorse her and will do a bit of campaigning for her too. Note Trump will run rumors about Bernie being his VP pick but Bernie will repeatedly shoot those down.

NEXT THREE MONTHS

The race on the Democratic side is now over for the counting. Bernie will know it but he will fight on. He has no real desire to burn down the party and will play the role of the loyal foot soldier when that time comes. Most of his supporters will happily transition to become Hillary supporters while not with the same level of passion they had for their Socialist uncle.

On the Republican side the debate stunt by Trump will force Cruz’s hand and the establishment to go full nuclear in their TV ad blitzes and whatever media visibility they can generate. Trump will continue to drop in on telephone call interviews on TV news shows and continue his serial lying. His supporters stay with him and the opposition to Trump will solidify. The exact opposite of what is happening with Democrats will happen on the Republican side. The divisions grow deeper and the party becomes ever more angry and bitter and torn. The tactical moves by especially Cruz (why didn’t you attack earlier and more) but also Kasich (wimp, enabler of Trump, why didn’t you attack earlier and more) will be questioned by all those alarmed that the Republican party is headed to an epic election loss, and in response, Cruz and Kasich will both amp up their attacks on Trump - but now without a suitable venue when there are no more debates. It will mostly be too little and too late, but it will mean more hostility and negative ads.

As Hillary gets to be the presumptive nominee, she can also turn her full attention on Trump. As Bernie also feels quite angry about what Trump is doing to the electoral process, as his run is approaching his end, he too will pivot to ever more attacks on Trump. And did you see POTUS? The sitting President mostly stays out of the daily politics of an election he is not involved in, but he is clearly stepping up his displeasure about Trump. Again, it won’t matter one iota to loyal Trump supporters (many who think Obama is Kenya-born socialist radical terrorist usurper) but to the independents, the orchestrated anti-Trump echo chamber from all sides will take its toll. The rock-solid ceiling Trump has nationally will only be fortified further. His general election ceiling is about 40% and Hillary will sleep-walk to a 60-40 epic landslide victory similar to how Ronald Reagan beat Walter Mondale (18 points) or Richard Nixon beat George McGovern (22 points). With Hillary’s massive election victory the Democrats retake control of the Senate and the House, and either through Obama’s nomination or in her first months as President, Hillary will also see the Supreme Court balance flipped from conservative to liberal. It will be a very rare tri-fecta flip of three separate bodies in government, combined with a very rare third Presidential term for the same party.

AND THEN..

Hillary’s VP will be Julian Castro. She will win easy re-election in 2020. During her 8 years in office she will reverse most of the various rules and laws and court rulings that cause the elections currently to favor Republicans. That means that whether its in 2016 or 2018 or 2020 or latest 2022, Hillary will also have a filibuster-proof Senate. And the first Supreme Court vacancy that Hillary has after she has the filibuster-proof Senate, she will fill with.. Barack Obama. She may nominate him already now in 2017 even if she doesn’t quite have a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate (which she might have).

So the 2020 race for President on the Republican side will feature Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz among the front-runners regardless of how this year’s VP choice goes. But that election will be another massive loss to the Republicans. The first Presidential race where the Republicans have a chance will not come until 2024 when its sitting VP Julian Castro who will try to run for (by then massively popular ex-President making popular populist rulings from the Supreme Court bench) Obama’s fifth term, haha...

Comments

[winter]

And here is a totaly unexpected connection

1927 news report: Donald Trump's dad arrested in KKK brawl with cops
http://boingboing.net/2015/09/09/1927-news-report-donald-trump.html

[Millard Filmore]

@Tomi: "I would find it bizarre if the Republican party really surrenders to Trump and just lets him take over"

The dominance of Trump over the Republican party was clearly shown when He alone was able to cancel that last debate.

[winter]

Rubio quits:

Marco Rubio Says He’s Leaving Government
http://time.com/4263474/marco-rubio-leaving-government/

“I’m not going to be Vice President,” the Florida Senator told reporters Thursday. “I’m not running for governor of Florida, I’m going to finish out my term in the Senate over the next 10 months… and then I’ll be a private citizen in January.”

[cornelius]

This guy here
https://pjmedia.com/diaryofamadvoter/2016/03/17/who-needs-an-open-gop-convention/?singlepage=true
suggests that Cruz has infiltrated Trumps delegates with double agents. They will have to vote for trump in the first round at the convention but after that they are Cruz' men. So Cruz seems prepared for the convention more than previously thought. There will be riots. The GOP universe will have a big bang inside a black hole.

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi winter, Millard, cornelius

winter - The KKK connection has some links that to police that have been exposed. In Florida about a year ago I think, maybe 2, there were a bunch of KKK related cops fired. Its a somewhat 'natural' job for someone who loves guns and hates people of minorities and obviously most US cop shootings go without any punishment. And thats before the systematic physical abuse short of killing people, that many racists police forces do quite regularly (like in Chicago). Then there is the issue of the bad cops being given new opportunities in other police departments even if they are fired for cause at a previous cop job. No surprise that a Black Lives Matter movement has risen, the problem is that broad and systematic. But now to your point, what if KKK and similar hate-based groups work together, alongside, and even inside cops who are tasked with keeping the peace at Trump rallies - and at the Cleveland Convention. I think we already saw an example of it, the 5 sheriff's associates who were given internal punishments including losing some paid days of work and some demotions, for not fairly protecting the victims in a violent Trump event situation. Obviously a case again where it was a minority who was being beaten up, and the cops didn't bother to help.

The dangerous part is when often these right-wing zealots are obviously Republicans, so they - and their uncles and brothers and dads and cousins - are at the white male dominated Trump rallies, if a relative or friend as (white) cop sees some situation with a black or hispanic or gosh, Muslim protester - they can very well deliberately pick a side that sides with the white power side. And it can become seen as systematic use of police for a 'Trump police state'. You'll notice how much Trump constantly sings the praises of the cops (and parades around with the most notorious ones especially Sheriff Arpaio of Arizona). Now imagine three months of this, then Trump comes to Cleveland to a bitterly divided Convention where the local Cleveland cops will need to try to keep the peace... Who will they see as 'their guy' and where can those loyalties lie.

But his dad and the KKK? Haha, did not see that coming but we did know that daddy Trump was a bigoted racist whose press coverage was about his slum lord status and how badly he treated his tenants.

Millard - true and sad. Someone even wrote that there must be a secret deal between Kasich and Trump - like I've said of the three last rivals, Cruz, Kasich and Rubio, Trump would ideally want Kasich as his VP if forced to pick of those three. He's been almost as timid about attacking Trump as Dr Ben Carson was haha. So if Kasich had joined Cruz and mocked Trump loudly for being a coward, they'd both gain some media sympathy at the least, and help draw attention to how cheap a trick it is to skip a debate, and if lucky, they could see a drop on Trump support into the next voting (and/or get Trump to suddenly reverse his mind and show up at the debate). Now, with Kasich instantly agreeing to not debate, the whole issue is diffused and Trump is hit with essentially no damage for what should be a massive campaign blunder - and by doing it the second time, it now sets up Trump to try not to debate Hillary at all in the Autumn (or to pull out at the last moment). If there was a secret deal between Kasich and Trump, then how fast Kasich announced he'd also skip the debate, would be consistent with such a deal. But equally, as Kasich team had seen this coming - because Trump signalled his previous debate cancellation also in advance - they had actually had plenty of time to consider and we'e seen how poor Kasich is at the debates. We also saw what happened in the debate just before Iowa, when Trump was out, it became a war between the two top candidates who showed up ie Cruz and Rubio. Kasich cannot take the abuse a one-on-one heated debate would be against Cruz - and then his pleas of 'please don't hurt me, lets keep this civil' would seem pathetic. Kasich going into the debate alone against an angered Cruz - and a desperate Cruz - with no Trump on stage to act as the target for Cruz's hostility, would make Kasich an instant casualty and out of the race before the two hours of the debate were over. He had to cancel. Its sad, that Kasich cancelled so QUICKLY so that there is no damage to Trump for this - what I consider despicable - political ploy.

And obviously for me as an ex debater and ex debate coach (and debate tournament judge for years) it deprives me of the single most enjoyable part of any election cycle, but gosh, we have had so many debates, I can't really complain very deeply. I do think - however, that Trump will probably try the gambit of no debates with Hillary (just like he isn't releasing his famous best minds foreign policy advisors, nor is he releasing his tax returns, and he did release the most hilarious but clearly bogus doctor's evaluation). The sad thing with all this is, that once Trump does it as the front-runner it once again deteriorates the level of standard for future elections. Whats even worse, is that while Trump keeps lowering the bar day after day, week after week - his rivals mostly give him a pass (partly because of the silly theater around the nonsense) and so does his party (mostly due to his threat to run as an independent if Trump feels he isn't treated fairly).

winter - on Rubio, yeah. And like I said, he may honestly even feel that way now. But he had felt the tingle of being 'the one' and having a huge political future, with many writing he was the future of the party, even if not this year then soon. And he will be out. And if will feel hollow when there are no rallies and no press conferences and nobody wants you to autograph things for them and take selfies. A few months of the sudden very loud loneliness will make the call very appealing if that call comes, and he is offered (or dangled) the VP slot and I'd say for Rubio, he'd take it at something like 90% certainty by July, if Trump made the offer (but note, that once Trump had Rubio signed up, he'd then re-negotiate with Kasich one more time saying - Kasich, its either Rubio or you, but with Cruz you're not going to be VP, so which is it going to be... and then Kasich will be torn - assuming there was no secret deal already in place haha).

Oh - haha.. just thought of it. Sometimes the grapevine knows. What if Rubio has found out that Kasich has the deal. There won't be an offer. Then the best way out for Rubio is to make very loud noises now, before anyone else knows about Kasich - that Rubio wouldn't even be interested haha... That way he can rescue some future prospects - and maintain his dignity - while he inside knows, Trump will never be calling.

cornelius - I'll deal with the double agents separately next

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi cornelius

On the double agents. I didn't know the exact mechanics of how the first, second, third ballot etc rules would play out in this year's Republican Convention, so I read up on it and now I think I have a pretty good idea. (and anyone out there if I make mistakes, please correct me).

So the first ballot almost all Republican delegates to the Convention come as 'bound' and they are required to vote for the candidate that they were sent to support. Note first off, that there are something around 150 unbound delegates (essentially 'super delegates') who can vote for whomever they want. They are known entities, ie individual people with names who have credentials to the Convention. Trump (or Cruz or Kasich) can contact them before and during the Convention to try to convince them to support him. A level of bribing may be involved, and its legality is at least murky - as these are not national elections, these are party internal proceedings. So some delegates flying in from a Pacific island with very expensive travel costs - all delegates pay out-of-pocket these costs to attend the Convention - then a given candidate who needs more delegates could bribe these unbound delegates for example by covering their Convention attendance costs out of the candidate's campaign budget. The Campaign is paying for travel costs for its own team anyway... So that is probably at the low end of where the bribing scale would start and at the high end - a leader of a delegation who could deliver say 9 delegates - might be promised something like an Ambassadorship if that candidate becomes the President - or some cushy government job like say the horse breeding dude who was appointed the director of FEMA the emergency administration that oversaw the disaster of the flooding responses at New Orleans under W Bush. The President will have hundreds of cushy job vacancies he can appoint. President of the Smithsonian Institution haha, like Ted Cruz said he'd offer Trump that posting.

But those will probably break in very rough terms, about evenly. Trump may get less than his delegate proportion out of the unbound delegates (aka super delegates) because these tend to be party insiders but also Cruz is not exactly their favorite guy either. Separate from the unbound delegates, are those won by the candidates who suspended their campaigns - in reality only Rubio has enough of those to matter. They too will become unbound but the candidate (Rubio) can recommend who they should vote for. I believe if a deal is struck between Trump and Rubio, if Trump was about 100 delegates short of clinching, that Trump could then insist that the rules committee changes the first vote rules so, that a combined Trump-Rubio ticket can be voted for by delegates bound for either Trump or Rubio - if its clear Trump is going to win the nomination, then the Convention would rubber-stamp his vote count and they like the circus on TV when each state gets to cast their votes for the candidates... It would be embarrassing for the party if the first vote doesn't produce Trump as the winner (if the party already knows Trump will be winning it). The party needs to prepare to win on all election levels for November so party unity will be a paramount concern and that rule is likely to be changed - IF Trump would thus get to 1,237 delegates.

But then if Trump doesn't clinch by June 7, and can't build a coalition with any of his rivals Rubio, Kasich and/or Cruz. What if going into the first vote, there is nobody who can win. Then they will have the first vote that is inconclusive, and the only way the Convention can end, is when a vote is conducted that produces a winner. One Democratic convention went to over 100 votes. It can last days. But if the first vote is not decisive, its HIGHLY likely that the SECOND vote will decide the nominee. And here is why.

Most states have local rules on how their delegates must behave in the first vote, but not the subsequent votes. Some bound their delegates for two votes, and some even through three votes. But more than half of all delegates become unbound for the second vote. That is what you cornelius were referring to with the Cruz 'double-agents' in the PJ Media article.

So then we get to the delegates themselves and this second vote. So if Trump gets to 1,237 delegates on the first ballot its over. He is the nominee. Nothing can be done to deprive him of it. But if he doesn't, then it becomes a mystery. Because the delegates are not - primarily - PERSONALLY favoring that given candidate. They MAY BE but they are not necessarily so. They are TYPICALLY the party foot soldiers in that state, the local treasurer and the city council member and the youth outreach leader and the brother of the chairman and the wife of the local big donor and so forth. Republican party insiders within the state, that usually have done these Conventions for decades and its their big 'thing' they get to do once every 4 years to show their local community back home, that they are part of the big national process who goes to the Convention and its just even possible Fox News shows a quick glimpse of that delegate in the funny hat and the t-shirt about their state and whatever. These are primarily party loyalists not the outsiders. They do have a good infiltration of Tea Partiers now too but I'd say the Convention will be significantly more 'insider' vs Tea Party balance than that given state's actual electorate. It makes sense, these people have been working - mostly as volunteers or else on low-salary government jobs - building the Republican party in that state. This is their big party where they get to travel and to be seen possibly briefly posing with the next President.

So who is favored? John Kasich most definitely. He's a well known long long long-time Republican who was in national politics forever. He has connections to THIS crowd at deep levels. Then he is also a well trusted, 'normal' Republican and of the most favored kind - a sitting Governor who came to a purple state and instituted sensible Republican ideas successfully and still has a high approval rating. That is totally opposite of Ted Cruz the newcomer Senator who spits in the eyes of the establishment. Or worse the Democrat-in-disguise Planned Parenthood loving Bush-Cheney hating Trump. Where the delegates to the Convention will reflect more the core establishment of the Republican party - those are instinctively most aligned with Kasich and least with Trump. Cruz would be lukewarm in the middle. Now Cruz, on the other hand, knows the game very well and is playing his hand (in many cases but not always) very well.

In 2008 Ron Paul's team managed to infiltrate one delegation so well, that when they announced their votes for their state, they gave a DIFFERENT result than what they were supposed to - giving their votes to Ron Paul rather than John McCain. It didn't matter in the end but it shows what is possible. Now. That was first vote. In the second vote, about 60% of the delegates are truly unbound, and can vote individually for whomever they want. Many who were sent by their own State organization of the Republican Party to cast one vote for say Cruz, after the first ballot - can vote for whomever. And now, that one random Republican might actually not prefer Cruz, he might actually prefer Trump, or Kasich. Or after 17 rounds of voting, suddenly like the idea of Paul Ryan and suddenly vote for him.

The second vote will be crucial in revealing who has the ACTUAL DELEGATE support (for the most part). It might not produce a winner yet, but it will reveal if there is a big difference in the DELEGATE preference vs the previous Primary and Caucus voting preference. It will almost certainly be not in Trump's favor because these are all party insiders. It will almost certainly favor Kasich and possibly also Cruz but how much that is the key question. IF Trump has not been able to clinch the nomination by 1,237 delegates before the voting starts either by winning the delegates or in the previous six weeks, his negotiations, then I think its impossible for Trump to win it on the floor vote. Then we'd see the real battle between Cruz and Kasich. The second vote reveals the direction (and may produce a winner) but more likely the third or fourth vote will produce the winner because by the fourth vote all delegates are unbound. And they'll all see the voting results live obviously and there will be a trend - away from Trump and probably for one of the two (and my gut instinct says it would have to be Kasich).

So that is where the secret agents come in. What each of the three want - is to seed the delegations from each state to have their own guys as the delegates. Try to infiltrate these state delegations with your guys. Now, are they dumb? No. The vice chairman of the state party knows all the locals and knows this one nutty Cruz supporter and this Nazi who is the Trump supporter - so when the local party allocates their delegates, they will generally try to match the delegates by who won what number of votes. And that obviously will never correspond perfectly. And then the old loyal foot-soldiers, the lady who always helps clean up after the meetings and the nice pastor at the church who lets the party use the Church for some events and the really nice old Korean War veteran who shows up at ever event and so forth and so forth - especially RELATIVES of the party bosses - these will be part of the delegation. The Trump element and the Cruz element will mostly be a minority of the party inside appratus. Those who want to become delegates will of course be known locally, so its essentially impossible to actually 'hide' double-agents but some will. And some will change their minds (in any direction). But mostly, the state delegations know what is the 'second vote' preference of their various members. It will very loosely resemble the state vote in the primary but it will be tilted more towards the party insiders and long-timers (favoring Kasich and the party establishment).

One last thing - these delegates are selected long after the voting in the primary. Weeks even months later. That means that these will reflect the LATE status of the race, not the early voting status with a dozen candidates in the race. This again.. favors Kasich.

I would say if Trump is not nominated in the first vote, he can't win the nomination in Cleveland. Then its most likely Kasich (probably only after several votes) but could be Cruz and could go deadlocked for a dozen votes or more and THEN it becomes possible to consider 'white knight' candidates like Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan. But Trump knows all this too and he is that good at negotiating, if he doesn't clinch on June 7, he will get his deal done in the next six weeks. Now if the Convention did happen with Trump say 200 delegates shy of the nomination, then the Convention goes for 4 votes and gives it to say Kasich - then yes, there would be so intense hostility on the floor that there would be blood spilled yes. Some of Trump's supporters are that extreme, angry and prone to violence (and conditioned to prepare for it, by Trump speeches now).

Thats how I see it. I'd love to see the floor contest for the nomination but I can't see Trump letting this deal slip through his fingers and come to Cleveland without having done a deal to be the nominee.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Then on Trump Veepstakes

ABC has done their list of 7 for Trump to consider. A mostly very bland list which really can't be the big Trump idea of how to change the game. They start it with Chris Christie. Then Florida Gov Rick Scott (the guy who even looks repulsive, he looks like a lizzard). Third is Dr Ben Carson (no he will not be the VP pick in this universe). New Hampshire Senator Kelly Ayotte would make some sense but a better woman should be available than her and delivering NH is not enough the prize to be worth it for Trump. Senator Jeff Sessions of Alabama is listed. No, thats not exciting enough in anyone's book and delivering Alabama is not of any value to a Republican. Gov Nicki Haley of South Carolina is a reasonable mention especially as a minority (India) young woman whose been brave in taking on some traditional Republican positions and is good on stage. And last they list Condi Rice (one of my picks) who they say would be possibly reluctant because of how much Trump has attacked her bosses in the Bush-Cheney administration and the wars.

To my mind, a pretty lame list. Chris Christie I do think is getting vetted by Trump but I can't believe he'd settle on him. No real outsiders there, no media people, no sports people, no military people - and I'd be pretty certain Trump has at least one from each of those on HIS short list. But Jeff Sessions and Rick Scott.. seriously lame list.

But lets see what else is caught in the trawling of the major press and what kind of names start to surface. And as I've said, this is probably not in Trump's hands, if he can't get to 1,237 delegates by June 7, then its either Kasich or Rubio for VP.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[winter]

When you think things cannot get more bizar, it does. Maybe only Trump meets the rules for nomination and someone else will run as an independent, all according to Ron Paul.

Ron Paul says GOP deserves convention rule controversy
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/03/18/politics/ron-paul-donald-trump-rule-40-republican-convention/

The issue could come to the fore if Trump fails to win the 1,237 delegates required to clinch the nomination before the July convention in Cleveland. But with Ted Cruz and John Kasich at risk of not meeting the eight-state majority minimum, the first fight of the 2016 convention could turn on a decision whether to scale back or remove the rule.

....

"It will probably go to the floor, but I think Trump is going to win and I wouldn't be surprised, if that happens, that you're going to see another individual running, a third-party candidate," he said. "Somebody that's going to be supported by the establishment-type Republicans and those who can't control Trump."

[Winter]

Another piece of evidence that Donald Drumpf addresses the ignorant. If we needed any. Note that W was even worse than Drumpf, no surprise here.

Trump’s grammar in speeches ‘just below 6th grade level,’ study finds
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2016/03/18/trumps-grammar-in-speeches-just-below-6th-grade-level-study-finds/

Up next was a look at politicians’ grammar.

“We see that George W. Bush had the lowest level and Abraham Lincoln the highest,” the paper read. “Amongst the candidates, levels are between sixth and seventh grades except for Donald Trump (grade 5.7).”

...

Trump, for one, seems to intuit that many of his supporters are not grammarians.

“I love the poorly educated!” he said last month.

[Wayne Borean]

@Winter

As a writer, I'm going to disagree with you violently. Grade level in speeches (or written works) is not an indication of intellect. I often write things at a lower grade level. It depends on the audience I'm trying to reach.

@Tomi

Excellent article and comments. I think you are dead on with the information we have right now. It would be interesting to know what sort of back room maneuvers are going on, but they aren't going to tell us!

I personally would love a contested convention. So would popcorn manufacturers!

Too bad there isn't the same level of conflict on the Democratic side...

Let's talk about the Supreme Court.

There's one current vacancy (death of Antonin Scalia, born in 1936)

Three justices were born in the 1930s (Ginsburg, Kennedy and Breyer)

One justice is from the 1940s (Thomas)

Obama has nominated a replacement for Scalia, and as Tomi has noted the Republicans in Senate are claiming they want the next President to fill the vacancy. But what if Clinton becomes President, and Democrats control the Senate?

We could see the two 'Liberal' justices, Ginsburg and Breyer retire so that Clinton could name two young Liberals as replacements. Kennedy is not ideological. If assured by Clinton that she would appoint another non-ideological justice, he might too retire.

So if Garland isn't confirmed, and Clinton appoints a forty year old Liberal to the court swinging it ideologically, things become desperate for 'Conservative' looking for a court to overturn Roe v. Wade. Or desperate for a court to affirm Citizens United...

But even worse is if the three justices mentioned retire, and Clinton appoints their replacements as well! Young replacements. Very young replacements.

Then if one of the Conservative justices has a health episode... Well then things become insupportable. Mike Huckabee can see this, which is why he has been making noises about term limits. Of course this could bite Conservatives in the ass later under a reversal of these circumstances.

I think that we are going to see Conservatives freaking even further as they realize the implications. Right now there's still a strong feeling that a 'real Conservative' will sweep the General Election. That someone like Cruz would be poison to the electorate hasn't sunk in yet among the rank and file. And probably won't until a major defeat occurs.

This 'the next President should pick Scalia's replacement' was genius. You have to wonder if McConnell isn't a Democratic Deep Sleeper Operative. His actions seem so perfectly designed to lock in Liberal dominance on the Supreme Court for a generation. After all, there's no way someone who managed to rise so high could be so incompetent!

[Winter]

@Wayne
"Grade level in speeches (or written works) is not an indication of intellect."

That is why I never suggested anything like that. But it is an indication how the author judges his or her audience. Except wrt to GW. He has shown time and again that he was no smarter than his speeches.

@Wayne
"After all, there's no way someone who managed to rise so high could be so incompetent!"

I think he does not care about the future at all, just the next elections.

[Wayne Borean]

@Winter

There are a variety of reasons for thinking that the stories about George W. Bush being, well, less than an intelligent are apocryphal. I'm not saying he was an Einstein, but that he is a fairly normal guy. Obama is way smarter, but Obama has taught law.

Remember my ratings of the Presidents from a couple of posts back? Go find it, and see how I rated him.

I have a bit of an advantage here. Back when I was still capable of working, I used to deal with a lot of high level people at American Government agencies. Several people I dealt with knew Bush. If you do the Six Degrees of Separation thing, I'm two degrees away from all of the Presidential nominees from 1999 on. Never met a President, though I met a couple of ex-Governors, several Senators, and a number of Representatives.

Back to McConnell - his statement that they would block all candidates might have been very short term (next election) thinking. Might. But it looks like doing that could help flip the Senate.

I'm with Tomi. This election looks like it will be a TOTAL disaster for the Republican Party. In the short term, this will be good for the USA. Republican policies would probably cause another Recession.

But if the Republican Party can't get their act together, and become a credible alternative, the Democrats are likely to become corrupt.

I have a theory that in a Two Party State that the governing party always becomes corrupt (in a One Party States corruption is built in). The longer the party governs, the more corrupt it becomes.

In States with three or more parties, corruption becomes less of an issue, as there is always an alternative. More parties means more options for voters, and less certainty that any particular party will have a majority in Parliament. That uncertainty keeps parties listening to their constituents, and responsive.

[Wayne Borean]

Here's a fascinating article on Delegate Selection and Convention Rules. I had no idea that American elections were so Byzantine. The rules look like they were written by Rube Goldberg while on acid!

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/features/2016-03-14/how-to-steal-a-nomination-from-donald-trump

[winter]

@Wayne
"There are a variety of reasons for thinking that the stories about George W. Bush being, well, less than an intelligent are apocryphal."

Several lower ranked politicians in European countries visited by GW lost their job because they blurted out their amazement of how stupid he was. In none of the cases there was even a reason other than sheer surprise for these remarks.

There is also no reason to assume the oscar level acting talent he would have needed for faking his utter ignorance in several clips found on the internet.

Remember that every single enterprise ever lead by GW went bankrupt, including the USA.

[winter]

@Wayne
"I had no idea that American elections were so Byzantine."

I think these rules were drawn up to prevent fair elections.

[winter]

Others are seeing the light, but not McConnell

Garland Shouldn’t Be Considered After Election, McConnell Says
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/03/21/us/politics/merrick-garland-supreme-court-mitch-mcconnell.html?_r=0&referer=http://news.google.com

“McConnell is leading his senators over the cliff,” Senator Harry Reid, the minority leader and a Democrat of Nevada, said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” “And I am telling everybody that’s watching this, the senators aren’t going to allow that.”

[Wayne Borean]

@Winter

It just keeps getting worse...

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/03/the-bizarre-130-year-old-law-that-could-determine-our-next-president-213645

[Winter]

@Wayan
"It just keeps getting worse..."

It shows that there was never any urge to make the elections represent the will of the people.

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi everybody

A few thoughts. First off, if you haven't seen John Oliver do his bit on the Trump Wall, go see it. Full bit is on YouTube and its perhaps funniest Trump bit yet done and it is in very high class of competition including Oliver's first dedicated Trump piece. This is just magnificent (and opens SEVERAL valid arguments both for current Republican rivals and for Hillary and the DEMs against Trump later).

Now a few intersting polls have come out. We have the first national polls after Rubio quit and we're now seeing Trump well above 40% level but each of Trump, Cruz and Kasich seem to have picked up some Rubio voters, Kasich the most. If you want a rule-of-thumb to remember their relative balance nationally, its my face numbers split: 1-2-3-4 (equals 10 BTW). So roughly 40% are Trump supporters now (of Republican primary voters), roughly 30% are for Cruz, roughly 20% for Kasich (note, that means a 'unity ticket' should get more votes than Trump) and 10% are undecided. This is very roughly as the memory aid. How much of the undecided roughly 10% can Trump still take, as he is so close to his ceiling by now.

Then a few interesting states. Utah. Has not voted for a Democratic President in 50 years. The most reliably Republican state in national election. And they have their first head-to-head poll out Monday - Hillary beats Trump in Utah !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I should maybe underline that a bit. IN UTAH !!!!

At what point will the reality hit the Republicans that they are headed to a catastrophy any way it goes now. Its like driving a car, down a winding road, its picking up speed -and you notice your brakes are broken... it will mean an accident one way or other, now you hope only that you won't die a slow agonizing death, that if death comes, it comes quickly...

So then other states. There is a fresh piece at Time, where they asked local Arizona experts on both sides of the aisle, can Trump bring Arizona - a safely red state - into play. Experts on both sides say yes, mostly because of the other dumb stuff the Republicans have done since the famous 2012 Autopsy. Arizona in play. Not just Democrats hoping its so - several Republicans from Arizona, not nationally - say so now including Jan Brewer's past political boss.

Then on flipping the House. Its now increasingly in the press, as more pundits predict that is a genuine threat while not obviously yet a likelihood. But if Trump is the nominee, then yes there is reason to think Democrats could pick up 30 seats and flip the House (and obviously have also flipped the Senate simultaneously, which more likely than not regardless of who is the Republican nominee).

Lastly the rats starting to escape the sinking ship. Already several endangered Republican House Members have distanced themselves in public from Trump. It will keep getting worse as the reality hits and various local polls come out and then the various politicians start to conduct internal polls 'just in case' and the reality truly hits home. All this - BEFORE a very fractured Convention.

Did you see 538 blog did a survey of 8 experts in political predictions to give their best guesses for all remaining Republican votes to see if Trump can clinch. Its almost like this blog haha. Their most likely scenario is that Trump comes just shy of clinching. The next most likely scenario is that Trump does clinch - but does it on June 7. And these experts do not see an earlier clinching as likely. So it goes to June 7 for sure, and even then Trump is likely short some delegates. Also they then expect that Trump will find the number in the six weeks before the Convention. Its almost like they were reading my blog haha...

So its Tuesday at my end. Today is another voting day. Lets see how that goes.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Winter]

@Tomi
"So roughly 40% are Trump supporters now (of Republican primary voters),"

That would be ~20% of the national vote.

Eerie how much the rise of Drumpf parallels that of Jean-Marie Le Pen and the Front National in France. Same type of voters, same level of support, same admiration for Hitler, same level of opposition where voters are willing to vote on "anyone but Drumpf".