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March 17, 2016

Comments

winter

And here is a totaly unexpected connection

1927 news report: Donald Trump's dad arrested in KKK brawl with cops
http://boingboing.net/2015/09/09/1927-news-report-donald-trump.html

Millard Filmore

@Tomi: "I would find it bizarre if the Republican party really surrenders to Trump and just lets him take over"

The dominance of Trump over the Republican party was clearly shown when He alone was able to cancel that last debate.

winter

Rubio quits:

Marco Rubio Says He’s Leaving Government
http://time.com/4263474/marco-rubio-leaving-government/

“I’m not going to be Vice President,” the Florida Senator told reporters Thursday. “I’m not running for governor of Florida, I’m going to finish out my term in the Senate over the next 10 months… and then I’ll be a private citizen in January.”

cornelius

This guy here
https://pjmedia.com/diaryofamadvoter/2016/03/17/who-needs-an-open-gop-convention/?singlepage=true
suggests that Cruz has infiltrated Trumps delegates with double agents. They will have to vote for trump in the first round at the convention but after that they are Cruz' men. So Cruz seems prepared for the convention more than previously thought. There will be riots. The GOP universe will have a big bang inside a black hole.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi winter, Millard, cornelius

winter - The KKK connection has some links that to police that have been exposed. In Florida about a year ago I think, maybe 2, there were a bunch of KKK related cops fired. Its a somewhat 'natural' job for someone who loves guns and hates people of minorities and obviously most US cop shootings go without any punishment. And thats before the systematic physical abuse short of killing people, that many racists police forces do quite regularly (like in Chicago). Then there is the issue of the bad cops being given new opportunities in other police departments even if they are fired for cause at a previous cop job. No surprise that a Black Lives Matter movement has risen, the problem is that broad and systematic. But now to your point, what if KKK and similar hate-based groups work together, alongside, and even inside cops who are tasked with keeping the peace at Trump rallies - and at the Cleveland Convention. I think we already saw an example of it, the 5 sheriff's associates who were given internal punishments including losing some paid days of work and some demotions, for not fairly protecting the victims in a violent Trump event situation. Obviously a case again where it was a minority who was being beaten up, and the cops didn't bother to help.

The dangerous part is when often these right-wing zealots are obviously Republicans, so they - and their uncles and brothers and dads and cousins - are at the white male dominated Trump rallies, if a relative or friend as (white) cop sees some situation with a black or hispanic or gosh, Muslim protester - they can very well deliberately pick a side that sides with the white power side. And it can become seen as systematic use of police for a 'Trump police state'. You'll notice how much Trump constantly sings the praises of the cops (and parades around with the most notorious ones especially Sheriff Arpaio of Arizona). Now imagine three months of this, then Trump comes to Cleveland to a bitterly divided Convention where the local Cleveland cops will need to try to keep the peace... Who will they see as 'their guy' and where can those loyalties lie.

But his dad and the KKK? Haha, did not see that coming but we did know that daddy Trump was a bigoted racist whose press coverage was about his slum lord status and how badly he treated his tenants.

Millard - true and sad. Someone even wrote that there must be a secret deal between Kasich and Trump - like I've said of the three last rivals, Cruz, Kasich and Rubio, Trump would ideally want Kasich as his VP if forced to pick of those three. He's been almost as timid about attacking Trump as Dr Ben Carson was haha. So if Kasich had joined Cruz and mocked Trump loudly for being a coward, they'd both gain some media sympathy at the least, and help draw attention to how cheap a trick it is to skip a debate, and if lucky, they could see a drop on Trump support into the next voting (and/or get Trump to suddenly reverse his mind and show up at the debate). Now, with Kasich instantly agreeing to not debate, the whole issue is diffused and Trump is hit with essentially no damage for what should be a massive campaign blunder - and by doing it the second time, it now sets up Trump to try not to debate Hillary at all in the Autumn (or to pull out at the last moment). If there was a secret deal between Kasich and Trump, then how fast Kasich announced he'd also skip the debate, would be consistent with such a deal. But equally, as Kasich team had seen this coming - because Trump signalled his previous debate cancellation also in advance - they had actually had plenty of time to consider and we'e seen how poor Kasich is at the debates. We also saw what happened in the debate just before Iowa, when Trump was out, it became a war between the two top candidates who showed up ie Cruz and Rubio. Kasich cannot take the abuse a one-on-one heated debate would be against Cruz - and then his pleas of 'please don't hurt me, lets keep this civil' would seem pathetic. Kasich going into the debate alone against an angered Cruz - and a desperate Cruz - with no Trump on stage to act as the target for Cruz's hostility, would make Kasich an instant casualty and out of the race before the two hours of the debate were over. He had to cancel. Its sad, that Kasich cancelled so QUICKLY so that there is no damage to Trump for this - what I consider despicable - political ploy.

And obviously for me as an ex debater and ex debate coach (and debate tournament judge for years) it deprives me of the single most enjoyable part of any election cycle, but gosh, we have had so many debates, I can't really complain very deeply. I do think - however, that Trump will probably try the gambit of no debates with Hillary (just like he isn't releasing his famous best minds foreign policy advisors, nor is he releasing his tax returns, and he did release the most hilarious but clearly bogus doctor's evaluation). The sad thing with all this is, that once Trump does it as the front-runner it once again deteriorates the level of standard for future elections. Whats even worse, is that while Trump keeps lowering the bar day after day, week after week - his rivals mostly give him a pass (partly because of the silly theater around the nonsense) and so does his party (mostly due to his threat to run as an independent if Trump feels he isn't treated fairly).

winter - on Rubio, yeah. And like I said, he may honestly even feel that way now. But he had felt the tingle of being 'the one' and having a huge political future, with many writing he was the future of the party, even if not this year then soon. And he will be out. And if will feel hollow when there are no rallies and no press conferences and nobody wants you to autograph things for them and take selfies. A few months of the sudden very loud loneliness will make the call very appealing if that call comes, and he is offered (or dangled) the VP slot and I'd say for Rubio, he'd take it at something like 90% certainty by July, if Trump made the offer (but note, that once Trump had Rubio signed up, he'd then re-negotiate with Kasich one more time saying - Kasich, its either Rubio or you, but with Cruz you're not going to be VP, so which is it going to be... and then Kasich will be torn - assuming there was no secret deal already in place haha).

Oh - haha.. just thought of it. Sometimes the grapevine knows. What if Rubio has found out that Kasich has the deal. There won't be an offer. Then the best way out for Rubio is to make very loud noises now, before anyone else knows about Kasich - that Rubio wouldn't even be interested haha... That way he can rescue some future prospects - and maintain his dignity - while he inside knows, Trump will never be calling.

cornelius - I'll deal with the double agents separately next

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi cornelius

On the double agents. I didn't know the exact mechanics of how the first, second, third ballot etc rules would play out in this year's Republican Convention, so I read up on it and now I think I have a pretty good idea. (and anyone out there if I make mistakes, please correct me).

So the first ballot almost all Republican delegates to the Convention come as 'bound' and they are required to vote for the candidate that they were sent to support. Note first off, that there are something around 150 unbound delegates (essentially 'super delegates') who can vote for whomever they want. They are known entities, ie individual people with names who have credentials to the Convention. Trump (or Cruz or Kasich) can contact them before and during the Convention to try to convince them to support him. A level of bribing may be involved, and its legality is at least murky - as these are not national elections, these are party internal proceedings. So some delegates flying in from a Pacific island with very expensive travel costs - all delegates pay out-of-pocket these costs to attend the Convention - then a given candidate who needs more delegates could bribe these unbound delegates for example by covering their Convention attendance costs out of the candidate's campaign budget. The Campaign is paying for travel costs for its own team anyway... So that is probably at the low end of where the bribing scale would start and at the high end - a leader of a delegation who could deliver say 9 delegates - might be promised something like an Ambassadorship if that candidate becomes the President - or some cushy government job like say the horse breeding dude who was appointed the director of FEMA the emergency administration that oversaw the disaster of the flooding responses at New Orleans under W Bush. The President will have hundreds of cushy job vacancies he can appoint. President of the Smithsonian Institution haha, like Ted Cruz said he'd offer Trump that posting.

But those will probably break in very rough terms, about evenly. Trump may get less than his delegate proportion out of the unbound delegates (aka super delegates) because these tend to be party insiders but also Cruz is not exactly their favorite guy either. Separate from the unbound delegates, are those won by the candidates who suspended their campaigns - in reality only Rubio has enough of those to matter. They too will become unbound but the candidate (Rubio) can recommend who they should vote for. I believe if a deal is struck between Trump and Rubio, if Trump was about 100 delegates short of clinching, that Trump could then insist that the rules committee changes the first vote rules so, that a combined Trump-Rubio ticket can be voted for by delegates bound for either Trump or Rubio - if its clear Trump is going to win the nomination, then the Convention would rubber-stamp his vote count and they like the circus on TV when each state gets to cast their votes for the candidates... It would be embarrassing for the party if the first vote doesn't produce Trump as the winner (if the party already knows Trump will be winning it). The party needs to prepare to win on all election levels for November so party unity will be a paramount concern and that rule is likely to be changed - IF Trump would thus get to 1,237 delegates.

But then if Trump doesn't clinch by June 7, and can't build a coalition with any of his rivals Rubio, Kasich and/or Cruz. What if going into the first vote, there is nobody who can win. Then they will have the first vote that is inconclusive, and the only way the Convention can end, is when a vote is conducted that produces a winner. One Democratic convention went to over 100 votes. It can last days. But if the first vote is not decisive, its HIGHLY likely that the SECOND vote will decide the nominee. And here is why.

Most states have local rules on how their delegates must behave in the first vote, but not the subsequent votes. Some bound their delegates for two votes, and some even through three votes. But more than half of all delegates become unbound for the second vote. That is what you cornelius were referring to with the Cruz 'double-agents' in the PJ Media article.

So then we get to the delegates themselves and this second vote. So if Trump gets to 1,237 delegates on the first ballot its over. He is the nominee. Nothing can be done to deprive him of it. But if he doesn't, then it becomes a mystery. Because the delegates are not - primarily - PERSONALLY favoring that given candidate. They MAY BE but they are not necessarily so. They are TYPICALLY the party foot soldiers in that state, the local treasurer and the city council member and the youth outreach leader and the brother of the chairman and the wife of the local big donor and so forth. Republican party insiders within the state, that usually have done these Conventions for decades and its their big 'thing' they get to do once every 4 years to show their local community back home, that they are part of the big national process who goes to the Convention and its just even possible Fox News shows a quick glimpse of that delegate in the funny hat and the t-shirt about their state and whatever. These are primarily party loyalists not the outsiders. They do have a good infiltration of Tea Partiers now too but I'd say the Convention will be significantly more 'insider' vs Tea Party balance than that given state's actual electorate. It makes sense, these people have been working - mostly as volunteers or else on low-salary government jobs - building the Republican party in that state. This is their big party where they get to travel and to be seen possibly briefly posing with the next President.

So who is favored? John Kasich most definitely. He's a well known long long long-time Republican who was in national politics forever. He has connections to THIS crowd at deep levels. Then he is also a well trusted, 'normal' Republican and of the most favored kind - a sitting Governor who came to a purple state and instituted sensible Republican ideas successfully and still has a high approval rating. That is totally opposite of Ted Cruz the newcomer Senator who spits in the eyes of the establishment. Or worse the Democrat-in-disguise Planned Parenthood loving Bush-Cheney hating Trump. Where the delegates to the Convention will reflect more the core establishment of the Republican party - those are instinctively most aligned with Kasich and least with Trump. Cruz would be lukewarm in the middle. Now Cruz, on the other hand, knows the game very well and is playing his hand (in many cases but not always) very well.

In 2008 Ron Paul's team managed to infiltrate one delegation so well, that when they announced their votes for their state, they gave a DIFFERENT result than what they were supposed to - giving their votes to Ron Paul rather than John McCain. It didn't matter in the end but it shows what is possible. Now. That was first vote. In the second vote, about 60% of the delegates are truly unbound, and can vote individually for whomever they want. Many who were sent by their own State organization of the Republican Party to cast one vote for say Cruz, after the first ballot - can vote for whomever. And now, that one random Republican might actually not prefer Cruz, he might actually prefer Trump, or Kasich. Or after 17 rounds of voting, suddenly like the idea of Paul Ryan and suddenly vote for him.

The second vote will be crucial in revealing who has the ACTUAL DELEGATE support (for the most part). It might not produce a winner yet, but it will reveal if there is a big difference in the DELEGATE preference vs the previous Primary and Caucus voting preference. It will almost certainly be not in Trump's favor because these are all party insiders. It will almost certainly favor Kasich and possibly also Cruz but how much that is the key question. IF Trump has not been able to clinch the nomination by 1,237 delegates before the voting starts either by winning the delegates or in the previous six weeks, his negotiations, then I think its impossible for Trump to win it on the floor vote. Then we'd see the real battle between Cruz and Kasich. The second vote reveals the direction (and may produce a winner) but more likely the third or fourth vote will produce the winner because by the fourth vote all delegates are unbound. And they'll all see the voting results live obviously and there will be a trend - away from Trump and probably for one of the two (and my gut instinct says it would have to be Kasich).

So that is where the secret agents come in. What each of the three want - is to seed the delegations from each state to have their own guys as the delegates. Try to infiltrate these state delegations with your guys. Now, are they dumb? No. The vice chairman of the state party knows all the locals and knows this one nutty Cruz supporter and this Nazi who is the Trump supporter - so when the local party allocates their delegates, they will generally try to match the delegates by who won what number of votes. And that obviously will never correspond perfectly. And then the old loyal foot-soldiers, the lady who always helps clean up after the meetings and the nice pastor at the church who lets the party use the Church for some events and the really nice old Korean War veteran who shows up at ever event and so forth and so forth - especially RELATIVES of the party bosses - these will be part of the delegation. The Trump element and the Cruz element will mostly be a minority of the party inside appratus. Those who want to become delegates will of course be known locally, so its essentially impossible to actually 'hide' double-agents but some will. And some will change their minds (in any direction). But mostly, the state delegations know what is the 'second vote' preference of their various members. It will very loosely resemble the state vote in the primary but it will be tilted more towards the party insiders and long-timers (favoring Kasich and the party establishment).

One last thing - these delegates are selected long after the voting in the primary. Weeks even months later. That means that these will reflect the LATE status of the race, not the early voting status with a dozen candidates in the race. This again.. favors Kasich.

I would say if Trump is not nominated in the first vote, he can't win the nomination in Cleveland. Then its most likely Kasich (probably only after several votes) but could be Cruz and could go deadlocked for a dozen votes or more and THEN it becomes possible to consider 'white knight' candidates like Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan. But Trump knows all this too and he is that good at negotiating, if he doesn't clinch on June 7, he will get his deal done in the next six weeks. Now if the Convention did happen with Trump say 200 delegates shy of the nomination, then the Convention goes for 4 votes and gives it to say Kasich - then yes, there would be so intense hostility on the floor that there would be blood spilled yes. Some of Trump's supporters are that extreme, angry and prone to violence (and conditioned to prepare for it, by Trump speeches now).

Thats how I see it. I'd love to see the floor contest for the nomination but I can't see Trump letting this deal slip through his fingers and come to Cleveland without having done a deal to be the nominee.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Then on Trump Veepstakes

ABC has done their list of 7 for Trump to consider. A mostly very bland list which really can't be the big Trump idea of how to change the game. They start it with Chris Christie. Then Florida Gov Rick Scott (the guy who even looks repulsive, he looks like a lizzard). Third is Dr Ben Carson (no he will not be the VP pick in this universe). New Hampshire Senator Kelly Ayotte would make some sense but a better woman should be available than her and delivering NH is not enough the prize to be worth it for Trump. Senator Jeff Sessions of Alabama is listed. No, thats not exciting enough in anyone's book and delivering Alabama is not of any value to a Republican. Gov Nicki Haley of South Carolina is a reasonable mention especially as a minority (India) young woman whose been brave in taking on some traditional Republican positions and is good on stage. And last they list Condi Rice (one of my picks) who they say would be possibly reluctant because of how much Trump has attacked her bosses in the Bush-Cheney administration and the wars.

To my mind, a pretty lame list. Chris Christie I do think is getting vetted by Trump but I can't believe he'd settle on him. No real outsiders there, no media people, no sports people, no military people - and I'd be pretty certain Trump has at least one from each of those on HIS short list. But Jeff Sessions and Rick Scott.. seriously lame list.

But lets see what else is caught in the trawling of the major press and what kind of names start to surface. And as I've said, this is probably not in Trump's hands, if he can't get to 1,237 delegates by June 7, then its either Kasich or Rubio for VP.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

winter

When you think things cannot get more bizar, it does. Maybe only Trump meets the rules for nomination and someone else will run as an independent, all according to Ron Paul.


Ron Paul says GOP deserves convention rule controversy
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/03/18/politics/ron-paul-donald-trump-rule-40-republican-convention/

The issue could come to the fore if Trump fails to win the 1,237 delegates required to clinch the nomination before the July convention in Cleveland. But with Ted Cruz and John Kasich at risk of not meeting the eight-state majority minimum, the first fight of the 2016 convention could turn on a decision whether to scale back or remove the rule.

....

"It will probably go to the floor, but I think Trump is going to win and I wouldn't be surprised, if that happens, that you're going to see another individual running, a third-party candidate," he said. "Somebody that's going to be supported by the establishment-type Republicans and those who can't control Trump."

Winter

Another piece of evidence that Donald Drumpf addresses the ignorant. If we needed any. Note that W was even worse than Drumpf, no surprise here.


Trump’s grammar in speeches ‘just below 6th grade level,’ study finds
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2016/03/18/trumps-grammar-in-speeches-just-below-6th-grade-level-study-finds/


Up next was a look at politicians’ grammar.

“We see that George W. Bush had the lowest level and Abraham Lincoln the highest,” the paper read. “Amongst the candidates, levels are between sixth and seventh grades except for Donald Trump (grade 5.7).”

...

Trump, for one, seems to intuit that many of his supporters are not grammarians.

“I love the poorly educated!” he said last month.

Wayne Borean


@Winter

As a writer, I'm going to disagree with you violently. Grade level in speeches (or written works) is not an indication of intellect. I often write things at a lower grade level. It depends on the audience I'm trying to reach.

@Tomi

Excellent article and comments. I think you are dead on with the information we have right now. It would be interesting to know what sort of back room maneuvers are going on, but they aren't going to tell us!

I personally would love a contested convention. So would popcorn manufacturers!

Too bad there isn't the same level of conflict on the Democratic side...

Let's talk about the Supreme Court.

There's one current vacancy (death of Antonin Scalia, born in 1936)

Three justices were born in the 1930s (Ginsburg, Kennedy and Breyer)

One justice is from the 1940s (Thomas)

Obama has nominated a replacement for Scalia, and as Tomi has noted the Republicans in Senate are claiming they want the next President to fill the vacancy. But what if Clinton becomes President, and Democrats control the Senate?

We could see the two 'Liberal' justices, Ginsburg and Breyer retire so that Clinton could name two young Liberals as replacements. Kennedy is not ideological. If assured by Clinton that she would appoint another non-ideological justice, he might too retire.

So if Garland isn't confirmed, and Clinton appoints a forty year old Liberal to the court swinging it ideologically, things become desperate for 'Conservative' looking for a court to overturn Roe v. Wade. Or desperate for a court to affirm Citizens United...

But even worse is if the three justices mentioned retire, and Clinton appoints their replacements as well! Young replacements. Very young replacements.

Then if one of the Conservative justices has a health episode... Well then things become insupportable. Mike Huckabee can see this, which is why he has been making noises about term limits. Of course this could bite Conservatives in the ass later under a reversal of these circumstances.

I think that we are going to see Conservatives freaking even further as they realize the implications. Right now there's still a strong feeling that a 'real Conservative' will sweep the General Election. That someone like Cruz would be poison to the electorate hasn't sunk in yet among the rank and file. And probably won't until a major defeat occurs.

This 'the next President should pick Scalia's replacement' was genius. You have to wonder if McConnell isn't a Democratic Deep Sleeper Operative. His actions seem so perfectly designed to lock in Liberal dominance on the Supreme Court for a generation. After all, there's no way someone who managed to rise so high could be so incompetent!

Winter

@Wayne
"Grade level in speeches (or written works) is not an indication of intellect."

That is why I never suggested anything like that. But it is an indication how the author judges his or her audience. Except wrt to GW. He has shown time and again that he was no smarter than his speeches.

@Wayne
"After all, there's no way someone who managed to rise so high could be so incompetent!"

I think he does not care about the future at all, just the next elections.

Wayne Borean


@Winter

There are a variety of reasons for thinking that the stories about George W. Bush being, well, less than an intelligent are apocryphal. I'm not saying he was an Einstein, but that he is a fairly normal guy. Obama is way smarter, but Obama has taught law.

Remember my ratings of the Presidents from a couple of posts back? Go find it, and see how I rated him.

I have a bit of an advantage here. Back when I was still capable of working, I used to deal with a lot of high level people at American Government agencies. Several people I dealt with knew Bush. If you do the Six Degrees of Separation thing, I'm two degrees away from all of the Presidential nominees from 1999 on. Never met a President, though I met a couple of ex-Governors, several Senators, and a number of Representatives.

Back to McConnell - his statement that they would block all candidates might have been very short term (next election) thinking. Might. But it looks like doing that could help flip the Senate.

I'm with Tomi. This election looks like it will be a TOTAL disaster for the Republican Party. In the short term, this will be good for the USA. Republican policies would probably cause another Recession.

But if the Republican Party can't get their act together, and become a credible alternative, the Democrats are likely to become corrupt.

I have a theory that in a Two Party State that the governing party always becomes corrupt (in a One Party States corruption is built in). The longer the party governs, the more corrupt it becomes.

In States with three or more parties, corruption becomes less of an issue, as there is always an alternative. More parties means more options for voters, and less certainty that any particular party will have a majority in Parliament. That uncertainty keeps parties listening to their constituents, and responsive.

Wayne Borean


Here's a fascinating article on Delegate Selection and Convention Rules. I had no idea that American elections were so Byzantine. The rules look like they were written by Rube Goldberg while on acid!

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/features/2016-03-14/how-to-steal-a-nomination-from-donald-trump

winter

@Wayne
"There are a variety of reasons for thinking that the stories about George W. Bush being, well, less than an intelligent are apocryphal."

Several lower ranked politicians in European countries visited by GW lost their job because they blurted out their amazement of how stupid he was. In none of the cases there was even a reason other than sheer surprise for these remarks.

There is also no reason to assume the oscar level acting talent he would have needed for faking his utter ignorance in several clips found on the internet.

Remember that every single enterprise ever lead by GW went bankrupt, including the USA.

winter

@Wayne
"I had no idea that American elections were so Byzantine."

I think these rules were drawn up to prevent fair elections.

winter

Others are seeing the light, but not McConnell


Garland Shouldn’t Be Considered After Election, McConnell Says
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/03/21/us/politics/merrick-garland-supreme-court-mitch-mcconnell.html?_r=0&referer=http://news.google.com

“McConnell is leading his senators over the cliff,” Senator Harry Reid, the minority leader and a Democrat of Nevada, said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” “And I am telling everybody that’s watching this, the senators aren’t going to allow that.”

Wayne Borean


@Winter

It just keeps getting worse...

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/03/the-bizarre-130-year-old-law-that-could-determine-our-next-president-213645

Winter

@Wayan
"It just keeps getting worse..."

It shows that there was never any urge to make the elections represent the will of the people.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

A few thoughts. First off, if you haven't seen John Oliver do his bit on the Trump Wall, go see it. Full bit is on YouTube and its perhaps funniest Trump bit yet done and it is in very high class of competition including Oliver's first dedicated Trump piece. This is just magnificent (and opens SEVERAL valid arguments both for current Republican rivals and for Hillary and the DEMs against Trump later).

Now a few intersting polls have come out. We have the first national polls after Rubio quit and we're now seeing Trump well above 40% level but each of Trump, Cruz and Kasich seem to have picked up some Rubio voters, Kasich the most. If you want a rule-of-thumb to remember their relative balance nationally, its my face numbers split: 1-2-3-4 (equals 10 BTW). So roughly 40% are Trump supporters now (of Republican primary voters), roughly 30% are for Cruz, roughly 20% for Kasich (note, that means a 'unity ticket' should get more votes than Trump) and 10% are undecided. This is very roughly as the memory aid. How much of the undecided roughly 10% can Trump still take, as he is so close to his ceiling by now.

Then a few interesting states. Utah. Has not voted for a Democratic President in 50 years. The most reliably Republican state in national election. And they have their first head-to-head poll out Monday - Hillary beats Trump in Utah !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I should maybe underline that a bit. IN UTAH !!!!

At what point will the reality hit the Republicans that they are headed to a catastrophy any way it goes now. Its like driving a car, down a winding road, its picking up speed -and you notice your brakes are broken... it will mean an accident one way or other, now you hope only that you won't die a slow agonizing death, that if death comes, it comes quickly...

So then other states. There is a fresh piece at Time, where they asked local Arizona experts on both sides of the aisle, can Trump bring Arizona - a safely red state - into play. Experts on both sides say yes, mostly because of the other dumb stuff the Republicans have done since the famous 2012 Autopsy. Arizona in play. Not just Democrats hoping its so - several Republicans from Arizona, not nationally - say so now including Jan Brewer's past political boss.

Then on flipping the House. Its now increasingly in the press, as more pundits predict that is a genuine threat while not obviously yet a likelihood. But if Trump is the nominee, then yes there is reason to think Democrats could pick up 30 seats and flip the House (and obviously have also flipped the Senate simultaneously, which more likely than not regardless of who is the Republican nominee).

Lastly the rats starting to escape the sinking ship. Already several endangered Republican House Members have distanced themselves in public from Trump. It will keep getting worse as the reality hits and various local polls come out and then the various politicians start to conduct internal polls 'just in case' and the reality truly hits home. All this - BEFORE a very fractured Convention.

Did you see 538 blog did a survey of 8 experts in political predictions to give their best guesses for all remaining Republican votes to see if Trump can clinch. Its almost like this blog haha. Their most likely scenario is that Trump comes just shy of clinching. The next most likely scenario is that Trump does clinch - but does it on June 7. And these experts do not see an earlier clinching as likely. So it goes to June 7 for sure, and even then Trump is likely short some delegates. Also they then expect that Trump will find the number in the six weeks before the Convention. Its almost like they were reading my blog haha...

So its Tuesday at my end. Today is another voting day. Lets see how that goes.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Winter

@Tomi
"So roughly 40% are Trump supporters now (of Republican primary voters),"

That would be ~20% of the national vote.

Eerie how much the rise of Drumpf parallels that of Jean-Marie Le Pen and the Front National in France. Same type of voters, same level of support, same admiration for Hitler, same level of opposition where voters are willing to vote on "anyone but Drumpf".

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Available for Consulting and Speakerships

  • Available for Consulting & Speaking
    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

Tomi's eBooks on Mobile Pearls

  • Pearls Vol 1: Mobile Advertising
    Tomi's first eBook is 171 pages with 50 case studies of real cases of mobile advertising and marketing in 19 countries on four continents. See this link for the only place where you can order the eBook for download

Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009

  • Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009
    A comprehensive statistical review of the total mobile industry, in 171 pages, has 70 tables and charts, and fits on your smartphone to carry in your pocket every day.

Alan's Third Book: No Straight Lines

Tomi's Fave Twitterati