The End Game Scenarios in US Primary Race - Trump likely has to give VP slot to Rubio to avoid deadlocked convention

March 15 Super Tuesday produced interesting and mixed results in the race for US President. On the Democratic side the race is even more clear. But on the Republican side while Donald Trump essentially swept the races, the contest became more muddled and arguaby the outcome is now worse than it was just before the results. It now does seem like the Republican party is headed to a contested Convention. So lets look at each of the five remaining candidates and how they might still win it, and what other possibilities are out there for them.

KASICH 146 DELEGATES

John Kasich cannot clinch the nomination with a majority of delegates. There are not enough delegates left, even if he won all that remain, he would fall short of 1,236 which is the magic number to clinch on the Republican side. There are only 918 delegates left so Kasich would fall short even if he somehow pulled the miracle of winning all that is left. That does not mean that Kasich cannot win the nomination but Kasich does need a lot of luck going his way now. He needs essentially all the luck.

Kasich can win via the delegate hunt either by getting the most of all delegates if nobody else gets to clinch either; or if Kasich gets the most of non-Trump delegates and Trump falls short of clinching 1,236 delegates. Lets see how these would play out. In the perfect case, Kasich now is able to consolidate the moderate vote, from Marco Rubio supporters and the undecided voters. He would need for Trump’s support to fall a bit from its current peak of 40.5% that Trump received on March 15. If we say Ted Cruz only gets to about 15% of the vote in the remaining races and Trump is held to about 35%, then Kasich would keep the remaining about 50%. If this level held nationally, then Kasich could essentially run the board on the remaining race. He would need to be perfect in winning all remaining races and even that is not enough, he would also have to pick up the vast majority of the proportional (and unbound) delegates that remain. They are in states that are favorable to Kasich (Pennsylvania, Oregon, Rhode Island, New Mexico etc). Then Kasich would also have to win the vast majority of the votes in states where there are congressional district delegates won on winner-take-all basis. That is a kind of proportional race where again the moderate vote is likely to dominate in most of the big states with such delegates, specifically California and New York. If Kasich runs the table on the remaining states, and of these delegates that are not purely winner-take-all, with his 50% votes, Kasich took 65% of those delegates (Trump 20%, Cruz 15%) then the math works out just barely, that Kasich ends with most delegates, about 850, compared to 815 for Trump and 505 for Cruz.

Kasich would need to be perfect now from here till the end. Note he cannot afford to lose Arizona next week, a winner-take-all state where Trump and Cruz both are ahead of Kasich in the latest polling, but those polls were taken when Rubio was still in the race. If Kasich can get the party to join and support him (they distrust Trump and hate Cruz) and if Kasich gets broad local support like say Senator John McCain in Arizona, he can theoretically do this. Note, he needs a lot of luck, in that Trump won’t crush Cruz, but that they nearly split the remaining delegates. But Kasich can still win the delegate race and if Kasich has the most delegates, where nobody clinches, Kasich will be the nominee. The party would prefer him because he has clearly the best chances against Hillary Clinton in the general election. The ticket would almost certainly then be Kasich with Cruz (Trump would never agree to be VP)

A more likely scenario for Kasich is that he won’t catch Trump but picks up more delegates than Cruz from now till the end and finishes with second most delegates. If Trump doesn’t get to 1,236 delegates and Kasich finishes second, with say 700 delegates to Trump at say 950, then Kasich could build a coalition of non-Trumps via Cruz and possibly also Rubio, to then become the Presidential nominee. Its conceivable that Kasich gets there from as low a level of his own won delegates as 650 (when 1,236 are needed to clinch). So if Trump finished with 1,100 delegates, Kasich 650, Cruz 550 and Rubio 172, then if Kasich can just get both Cruz and Rubio to join ‘his side’ against Trump, Kasich can become the nominee. He needs to finish ahead of Cruz (who has 412 delegates now) and for Trump not to clinch. Then its up to the negotiations of a contested Convention scenario where Rubio would play kingmaker.

To get to 650 delegates (with Trump not clinching), Kasich would only need to win about 50% of the non-Winner-take-all delegates (including unpledged and congressionally distributed delegates) and then win just over half of the delegates of the remaining full winner-take-all state contests. This is quite plausible, as long as Kasich now consolidates the non-Trump and non-Cruz votes, and gets to roughly 50% of the total votes in the remaining states. That is a tall order, as Trump has climbed to just over 40% of the votes already, and that was before Rubio was out. Trump might now get to 42% to 45% and then no matter how poorly Cruz does, Kasich can’t get to the level he needs. Its still a race but he is the severe underdog. Then if he doesn’t beat Cruz, Kasich will be in the VP hunt. But Kasich might still become the Presidential nominee if the convention is deadlocked after many votes. I’ll deal with that possibility later in this article. Now lets take..

CRUZ 412 DELEGATES

Ted Cruz had a bad, very bad, un-Super Tuesday on March 15. His campaign made several tactical mistakes. Cruz lost Missouri by 2,000 votes out of over a million cast. He fought for Missouri, he knew going in, that of the Super Tuesday states, Missouri was probably his best bet, being mostly a winner-take-all state (15 of the state delegates go to winner-take-all but the rest are by congressional district) but one that is near Texas, has plenty of conservative and religious voters and as Kasich and Rubio were stuck fighting for their home states of Ohio and Florida. North Carolina was a proportional state so nobody was going to fight for it as hard, and Illinois was far more friendly to Trump. Cruz should have prioritized Missouri far more than he did. Instead Cruz wasted money and effort to briefly fight for Florida (a state he had no chance of winning, and where Rubio was clearly losing by all the polls, so he didn’t need to go destroy Rubio) and neither did it make sense to go waste money in Ohio. Just the last debate, if Cruz had bothered to attack Trump half of the opportunities he had, Trump would have lost more than those 2,000 votes that was the difference in Missouri, and Cruz would have taken 15 more delegates.

While Cruz is the clear number two in the race, he is essentially now without any aces left in the game. He is like an army that ran out of ammunition. All the best states that were supposed to favor Ted Cruz as the candidate, have gone, and almost all went for Trump instead. Cruz will pick up random few delegates here and there, but unless the game is dramatically changed, he cannot get to the nomination. Not because its mathematically or even statistically impossible. (Cruz would need to win 90% of all remaining delegates to clinch the nomination - that is statistically impossible while mathematically still possible; and for Cruz to get the most delegates, if Trump is kept to say 950, Cruz would have to win 65% of the remaining delegates and Kasich kept to essentially nothing). Cruz can plausibly get to the most delegates ahead of Trump without anybody clinching, but that would need a huge change in the game now. A huge change. And Cruz had been hoping to get to face Trump one-on-one, thinking he’d then destroy Trump in the debates. That road was now demolished by Trump.

Again, we saw this scenario developing. Trump was signalling it all along. It makes it all the more bewildering that after two debates of heavy attacks on Trump, which clearly damaged Trump (and helped Cruz) why did he suddenly relent last time. Now Trump said he won’t debate again. And bizarrely also Kasich immediately joined in and said, he too won’t debate (rather than mock Trump for being a coward, effectively disarming all who would have attacked Trump for this). And now Cruz has his last joker card removed from his hand. He is helpless. He could probably yes, destroy Trump in a one-on-one debate, and do a lot of damage even in a three-way debate even if Kasich was continuing his Mr Nice Guy role, but now? Cruz has nothing left to try. He is out of ammo. He can only helplessly watch as the remaining primaries go to states that are moderate, that are mostly Northern states, that are often ‘blue’ states where Democrats tend to win and where Republicans are often moderate - and watch how his national polling of 30% won’t translate to even 25% of the delegates.

Cruz does have a strong base and has plenty of a lead, he’ll pick up some delegates definitely in the remaining states mainly because some still have proportional delegates. But his strength in caucus states is also ending. The last state with a caucus is now Utah, next week. Then all remaining states are primaries. And several of the more ‘blue’ states have high minimum thresholds like New York, Connecticut and Washington state, which have 20% thresholds. Cruz may well not hit that threshold in those states and be cut out of any delegates awarded.

Cruz’s more likely road to victory is that Trump doesn’t clinch, and Cruz finishes a clear second, ahead of Kasich. To do that Cruz has to pivot strongly to the moderate side and try to get some support from his party. He was not served well that the least feisty rival, the most moderate rival, Kasich is the one left as the third wheel rather than Rubio. Kasich has plenty of ‘party establishment’ support but better than that for Kasich, both of the remaining rivals are deeply distrusted or hated by most in the party establishment. Cruz is exceptionally poorly placed to pick up support from his party, against Trump. In practise, Cruz now needs to monitor two races and stay between the surging Kasich and hope that Trump remains under the level of clinching. If Cruz can finish second, he has a good chance of becoming the nominee, but Cruz strongest chance is if Trump is held to below 1,064. Because Rubio’s 172 delegates would be enough for Trump to win the nomination even at that level - by picking Rubio as his VP. So in terms of practical numbers, Cruz best hope is for Trump to finish under 1,000 delegates and Cruz to finish second. Then it doesn’t really matter if its 999 delegates for Trump, 660 delegates for Cruz and 640 for Kasich, as long as Cruz is the highest non-Trump finisher in delegates, he has the legitimate call for being the nominee of the party as long as he then builds the coalition with Kasich (and most likely also Rubio) to get above the 1,236 total delegate level. It would mean a severely fractured party with Trump making a nasty scene but Cruz does have a viable path to become the nominee, but now, he does not control his destiny. If Kasich outperforms and finishes with more delegates than Cruz, or if Trump can get to at least 1,064 delegates, then Cruz will be left at the altar.

TRUMP 691 DELEGATES

Trump essentially ran the table on March 15, where yes, Kasich won his home state of Ohio but those really don’t count. Of everything else that was on the table, Trump won. He even snatched Florida from Rubio who should of course have won his home state but Trump had led in all Florida polls for six months now. Trump has however, run a bad campaign regularly damaging his own prospects. So consider the competition. Normally in most years its a good thing when the front-runner sees a low level challenger drop out like now Rubio or earlier Dr Ben Carson, Chris Christie and Jeb Bush. Except this does not hold for Trump. Any modestly competent junior campaign manager could show Trump that he cannot let the race become a two-man race, and the more rivals hang on in the race the longer, the better it is for Trump, precisely because of the ‘winner-take-all’ states (and also winner-take-all congressional districts) where if Trump has a ceiling of 40%, if its a two-man race, he loses 40-60 but if its a five-man-race he can easily win with the exactly same limited 40% by winning 40-20-20-10-10. When it was clear Cruz was his main rival, Trump should have stopped attacking Jeb and Rubio, and try to let them hang on in the race as long as possible, and only attacking whoever was strongest of his rivals, ie Ted Cruz, to keep him at or under that 20% level. That Rubio quit now, is really bad news for Trump. It almost guarantees that Trump cannot clinch with 1,236 delegates. But if Rubio had stayed in the race on a hopeless race in third (or even fourth) place, it would have helped splinter the non-Trump vote more. Because Trump appeals across the board to all types of Republicans, he would do well in a broad field in the various mostly moderate congressional districts of say California and New York state. Now instead, Kasich gets to consolidate those and will pick up many that Trump would have won, had Rubio remained in the race.

But thats water under the bridge and Trump isn’t someone to worry about past mistakes. But we as observers should note, Trump’s campaign is full of mistakes and lost opportunities. Had he run a really smart campaign, he’d be at near 50% of the national vote of Republicans (not 37% what he has averaged since the start of the voting) and he’d be near to clinching by now. Instead, he is now in jeopardy of not clinching by June 7. So lets start first off, with what does Trump need to actually clinch the nomination.

Trump can clinch the nomination outright, its a tall ask but not impossible. Out of all proportional delegates (including districts awarded by winner-take-all) he would need to win 55% of the delegates which is not far above the about 42% to 45% of the national vote he now holds (probably, as he’ll pick up some of the Rubio supporters as he quit the race). As many of those states have high minimum thresholds, and the way the rules are written, the guy who is leading in the votes overall, gets more than his share of the delegates. Then Trump would still need to win 2 out of every 3 delegates in the remaining winner-take-all states and he’ll just hit 1,236 delegates. Trump certainly cannot clinch before the last day of voting, June 7, but now, that is not the most likely scenario anymore. It is however, very plausible, clearly well within statistical possibility while not statistical probability. And note, Trump leads in almost all in-state polls we’ve seen everywhere, and his main challenger for winning among the remaining 918 delegates is no longer Cruz, it is now Kasich who lingered in third or fourth place in most in-state polling, so Kasich has to win over voters who recently were for Rubio or even Carson. In pure math terms, Trump has to win 59% of all delegates outstanding and as the polling leader now, who has moved above 40% and his nearest challenger nationally was at under 30% (Cruz) before Rubio dropped out - that is certainly within reason but its not the most likely scenario for Trump.

Its because of his ceiling. As we’ve seen, Trump has a solid ceiling he can’t pierce. He now was at 40.5% his best day of voter support yet, but that not even 50% of the votes. I think his actual final ceiling is close to 45% (nationally averaged) but Trump is so much prone to self-induced damage to his campaign and his reputation, that he may well have stalled and see his support fall from here to the end. Even if Trump climbs to 45% of votes, then to go from that to 59% of the remaining delegates is a tall ask. Something like 55% or 52% of the delegates remaining is far more likely. Its almost certain that Trump will take the most of the remaining delegates, but he could take as few as 320 (35% of the remaining delegates) and if Cruz and Kasich split the remainder, Trump would still technically win the most of the remaining delegates, but then end up with just 1,011 total delegates at the end. Most, but not enough to clinch, even if he was to form an alliance with Marco Rubio. The main issue is now, how many delegates can Trump pick up of those 918 still outstanding. It could be as few as 300, it could be as many as 600. 545 of them (59%) is enough to clinch the nomination and end with Trump at 1,236 delegates. But only 373 (41%) is what Trump needs, to get to the magic number if he adds the delegates from Marco Rubio. Something like 430 delegates (47%) is what I think is most likely, as I studied the remaining races and the three men left contesting. Its essentially the same level (slighly below) what Trump has won so far. That is why Trump is now willing to ‘play out the clock’ in the race, to not debate anymore and to go hide. He feels he will end up with enough delegates and such a dominating lead, that whether its with Rubio’s support or maybe by outright clinching the nomination, Trump can sense he has won the race. And to underline his point he is threatening violence at the Convention if Trump were to be denied at that time.

So the most likely scenario I think is that Trump finishes between 1,064 and 1,235 delegates and Trump announces Marco Rubio as his VP. The rules of the Convention are then ammended enough that Rubio’s supporters can vote for the Trump-Rubio ticket and Trump is pronounced the winner. Cruz and Kasich supporters will be very unhappy but they will feel that Rubio at least is a reasonable VP. The Convention will not actually splinter into a fight. Note, Trump will be in the driver’s seat and he will also negotiate with Kasich in this case, and while Kasich now says he won’t join with Trump, if the math is clear on June 8, that Kasich will end with nothing, or Kasich can be VP to Trump’s failing Presidential bid (or else it will be rival Rubio), at that time Kasich may well have a change of heart. And I do think Trump would prefer Kasich as his VP, judging by how poorly Rubio did even in his home state of Florida. But also Kasich does seem like an exceptionally well anchored man of his convictions, and one rare candidate who is likely to stick to his word and not join Trump. So a highly likely scenario is that Trump is the Presidential nominee and Kasich is the VP, if Trump finishes with under 1,236 delegates and in that case Trump may be well under 1,000 if Kasich has more delegates to throw in.

I’d say the second most likely scenario is that Trump clinches with 1,236 delegates, maybe with a few dozen to spare but it will be only barely above that level. The third most likely scenario is that Trump still gets the most delegates but its under the Rubio VP level ie under 1,064. That Trump finishes say with 950 delegates and Cruz with say 750 and Kasich with say 600. This would be the ‘war’ scenario, where an unholy alliance with Cruz and Kasich would get to the delegates to clinch but Trump who had won the most delegates and most states, would be denied. A Cruz-Kasich ticket would emerge and Trump would raise all sorts of hell both at the Convention and thereafter, including a possibility of a run as an independent, or probably as bad, endorsing Hillary Clinton out of spite.

And if Trump is below 1,064, he’d then try every negotiating trick and every way to bribe and cajole his rivals to somehow join his ticket. He’d try to get Kasich on board, he’d try to do some tricks to get some voters to defect on the second ballot. And if he could not get there any other way, Trump would even offer the VP slot to Cruz. I cannot see Cruz finishing second and accepting Trump’s VP slot, if Trump cannot clinch without Cruz. Because in that scenario, Cruz can see him on the top of the ticket if only Cruz can convince Kasich (or worst case both Kasich and Rubio) to support Cruz. But if Cruz finishes THIRD, then yes, I can see Trump making some deal with Cruz to seal the nomination ahead of Kasich. And Cruz would calculate that he’s better off as Trump’s VP nominee where Trump cannot win, than going as Kasich’s VP where Kasich might win over Hillary and Cruz would be stuck being VP for 8 years facing a very tough third-term election then in 2024. At least if Trump loses in 2016, Cruz as VP would be the instant front-runner for 2020.

Because Trump is so far ahead and because he also leads the national polling and those states that have not yet voted but have recently been polled, its very likely that Trump does end with the most delegates. But unless Trump gets to 1,064, he won’t be the front-runner to win the nomination at the Convention. If Trump with Rubio cannot clinch, then its likely the party ‘establishment’ with the various party rules will be used to tilt the balance just enough that a Kasich, Cruz or even more wild ticket will be selected without Trump. And that would mean likely violence, could even be riots at the Convention in Cleveland. But do remember that Trump is indeed a capable negotiator and he is not playing with normal rules. He is utterly without any moral compass, his word is not worth the letters it takes to spell Drumpf. He is ruthless and he is oblivious to any rules or laws. He can easily bribe to get to his way, and make as many wild promises as he feels he needs, without any connection to reality. How many Ambassadorships to London will he promise to various party leaders, how many times will be fill his cabinet posts by overpromising, who knows. But if he fails to get to 1,064 delegates, then the master negotiator will come to play. I would not bet much against Trump even in that case, as his political rivals seem to have been played for suckers at ever level up to now.

One more note. After the votes have been counted on June 7, and if Trump finishes under 1,064, its VERY unlikely that the actual Convention will remain contested. Trump will negotiate behind the scenes feverishly in the intervening six weeks to the Convention, to lock his nomination, dealing with Rubio, Kasich and if needed, even Cruz to get some package agreed, where Trump is on top. And note, it can be something silly unprecedented and wild, he could promise his VP is ‘Co President’. He could promise to commit to a one-term Presidency (a promise he’d break of course). He could do the wildest secret side deals of selling government land to relatives of his VP or whatever. And Trump is rich enough to actually bribe a rival to become ‘independently wealthy’ through some deals via the Cayman Islands, so that regardless of whether the ticket wins in 2016, that rival candidate would suddenly be a genuine multi-millionaire and not have to ever worry about begging for money from donors again, but retire rich. And once again, considering how regularly Trump screws his partners, I would hope those rivals in those deals would bring in the best lawyers to read the fine print and get the money in a bank account in the Caymans before they commit to Trump haha... But yeah. I expect that while the delegate hunt is likely to be non-decisive by June 7, that when the Convention starts, the nominee will be decided. And by most scenarios that is going to be Trump. I’d say Trump-Rubio is the likely ticket at something like 70% probability. An actual contested Convention where we don’t know who will win, and the vote goes to 3 voting rounds or more - that is very unlikely, less than 10% chance. Trump will conclude his VP negotiations well before they gavel the Cleveland Convention to open.

RUBIO 172 DELEGATES

Now I do need to mention Rubio even though he dropped out. First off, he doesn’t actually control his delegates even as he suspended his campaign. He can only recommend to his delegates to vote for someone if he so desires (or not). By various state rules, in most cases, the delegates are bound to vote strictly for the person their state selected them to vote for, in the first round. But after the first round of voting, most become unbound delegates. And in most cases, as Rubio is not going to qualify to be the nominee for President, that usually means, the Rubio delegates are actually unbound from the first vote. Now what actually happens, it depends if there is a genuine contested Convention or if there is a deal. If say Trump has nearly the delegates, say he finishes with 1,200 and he only needs 36 more, and he does the deal with Rubio for VP, then the rules for the Convention no doubt will be amended to allow Rubio delegates to vote for the Trump-Rubio ticket in the first vote. But if its really tight, say Trump finishes with only 1,100 delegates (is 136 short) and Rubio only has his 172, then the Cruz-Kasich alliance could raise all sorts of complaints and demand a straight count, and insist the Rubio voters vote as their states demanded (ie vote for Rubio) or perhaps to vote their conscience, and Trump be denied by a relatively small handful of votes. But after the first round of voting, almost all delegates become unbound, and then the wheeling and dealing would really begin. Some voters in some state delegations would defect to a rival camp, etc. And who knows what would happen. The Cruz or Kasich teams alone are essentially too small to take on Trump but if Cruz and Kasich form an alliance, they can get ahead of Trump. But some of the delegates are truly unbound to begin with. Pennsylvania’s delegates are kind of the weirdest ‘free agent’ delegates right off the bat who can vote how they want (I guess, its not again very clear).

Now the main question is, will Trump clinch. If he clinches the nomination, all else is irrelevant and he can pick whomever he wants as VP and it will not be any of his rivals. But that is no longer the most likely scenario. Its more likely that Trump cannot clinch and he only finishes with most delegates, and then its most likely that Trump gets close enough to be within Rubio’s delegates to clinch. That means Rubio will be in the king-maker position, because obviously equally on the other side, if Rubio were to side with Cruz and Kasich, he could make that ticket the winner with Trump denied. If Trump gets to between 1,064 and 1,235 delegates, then its primarily Rubio (and secondarily Kasich or Cruz, whoever finished third in the delegate hunt) who picks which side wins. And why would Rubio pick Cruz-Kasich? The Cruz-Kasich side (or Kasich-Cruz) will already have their VP. The guy who finished with more delegates is the nominee for President and the number 2 guy is the VP, so lets say its Cruz-Kasich. What can they offer Marco Rubio in that case? Peanuts. A speaking slot at the convention? Trump can give that too. And what else? Secretary of State - IF they win. Before that, Rubio gets nothing. Rubio gets nothing unless that ticket wins. Even then, his two rivals are FAR ahead of Rubio for 2020 and 2024.

But consider Trump. Trump would offer Rubio the VP slot. Now, instantly the nomination convention is celebrating Rubio alongside Trump. Because Trump is so much the distrusted outsider, Rubio could play the three months of the general election race to build ironclad relationships with the party. He’d be the base darling, in the way Sarah Palin was alongside John McCain in 2008. Rubio could easily land a Fox TV job because he is now jobless after his term as Senator ends. After Trump goes down in flames in the general election of 2016, Rubio would be the clear front-runner of his party for 2020. If he wanted to, he could run for the Florida Governor position in the interim years and then be the clear leader going into the 2020 race as the future of the party. Cruz can’t offer Rubio the VP slot because he has to give it to Kasich (or vice versa). So as Rubio isn’t particularly married to the elders of his party who keep telling Rubio to wait his turn, he’d seem like the perfect opportunist to jump in with Trump as his VP. Now, Trump is too smart the negotiator. The moment he has Rubio locked, he’d go to Kasich and get Kasich to switch. Kasich will have more delegates and Kasich is the stronger general election candidate as VP and would deliver Ohio for Trump while Rubio probably could not deliver Florida. But Kasich may be too much the old-fashioned ‘straight arrow’ politician to actually agree to that evil alliance and betray his partner-by-then Cruz. But don’t be surprised if suddenly in late June the story breaks that Kasich will be Trump’s VP and the suddenly the feverishly contested Convention sees peace breaking out. And Rubio would be screwed once again.

And one more wrinkle. Its still possible that Trump stumbles badly in the final months and finishes second in the delegate hunt. If Kasich really catches fire, he could finish slightly ahead of Trump. Or if Cruz had his dream scenario of somehow Kasich quitting and it being the two-man race, and Cruz finishes ahead of Trump. But yes, if Trump finishes a very strong second in the delegate hunt. Then whoever finished ahead of him (it would be Kasich, can’t be Cruz) that rival would only have barely more delegates than Trump. Now Trump would go do the deal(s) needed with Cruz (and possibly also Rubio) to take the nomination. And the same calculation I have for Rubio here, it applies to Cruz if Cruz finishes third. In that case Kasich’s VP slot is worse than Trump’s VP slot, because Kasich might win but Trump is certain to lose. And being the VP of the sure-to-lose Trump would be far better for the next race in 2020, than being stuck as VP running to get Kasich re-elected and waiting till 2024.

DEADLOCKED CONVENTION

It is plausible that Trump finishes above 1,064 but under 1,236 and is unable to make the deal to get to be the Presidential nominee. He is bizarrely still belittling ‘Little Marco’ and humiliating Chris Christie and just acting like the jerk he naturally is. Rubio is ‘Latin’ with a vengeance, being Cuban and as a race, particularly proud. He might simply say no to Trump out of the delight of screwing Trump back. Note there will be pressure and promises from the party for Rubio to reject Trump. In the first vote, each delegate is (or should be) bound to whichever candidate their state voted for. So unless there is some very clear alliance agreed by Cruz-Kasich before the Convention by which some rules are then amended at the last moment, the first vote will then result in no winner. Trump gets say 48% of the delegates, Cruz 28%, Kasich 17%, and Rubio gets 7%. And after that round, the delegates are unbound and the circus begins. Some of those delegates who were bound to vote for Trump, may actually not like him (to begin with, or after the heated race and all the nastiness of Trump). The party will try to tilt the game against Trump as much as possible, as it will be so obvious Trump is headed to a total catastrophic general election loss to Hillary that would cost the Senate and might even flip the House. So from the second round of voting, its likely Trump’s support erodes, not strongly, but somewhat, to say 45%. And then some Rubio voters go to Kasich, some to Cruz, but its possible no alliance ever forms between Kasich and Cruz. And then the voting goes on several times and something close to 40-30-30 voting emerges, Trump slight lead and neither of Cruz or Kasich being able to convert enough to get into the lead.

It could go to a 40-20-40 race with Trump-Cruz-Kasich and still - again, nobody at 50%, remain deadlocked. With two strong candidates, its essentially mathematically certain that one will prevail. If its three reasonably strong candidates, a true deadlock is possible. Then none of the rivals really has any incentive to step aside. Rubio’s chances to be king-maker will be gone. The race is between the three, and each has a die-hard core who won’t give in, meaning none can actually climb to 50%. And if bad blood has built between the three that no pairing of two as the ticket is possible, then it could end up deadlocked. Note, however, that if Kasich consolidates the party establishment, and Trump stays stubborn, it would be Cruz’s dwindling support who would have to accept the VP slot behind a Kasich Presidential nomination, even if Cruz had more delegates than Kasich going into the Convention. Cruz’s bad relationships with the party establishment would come to haunt him and give it to Kasich. But it would require Cruz to finally accept this outcome, and he might stay stubborn and refuse it, insisting its either Cruz or Trump, they finished as top 2 in the delegate hunt.

Then it would get interesting. If it remained deadlocked after one day, then the party would start to float serious compromise candidates. Someone who is not any of the top 3, who would be acceptable to all. And one who would not pick any of the three as VP either. Now, note, Trump would never accept any such compromise in any case. Cruz would fight tooth and nail against it too. But now, the previous rivals would be back in view. What about Marco Rubio or Chris Christie or (haha Dr Ben Carson) or Jeb Bush or Lindsay Graham or Rick Perry or Mike Huckabee etc. And then three other names would loom large - Mitt Romney would desperately love to be asked. Sarah Palin would be once again floated. And Paul Ryan would be the clear favorite compromise choice by everybody, who would resist the urge with all his might, because at this point, it would be yet another epic failure for him. But Paul is a nice guy who likes to accept the responsibility when enough of his peers beg him, and he might become the crisis consensus compromise candidate. And Trump would take all his marbles with him and sulk. Maybe run as independent or else, like I said, nearly as bad, he’d just endorse Hillary Clinton.

SO ITS TRUMP - RUBIO

Almost every scenario has Donald Trump as the Republican nominee. He’s the only one with still a valid statistical chance to clinch. He’s more likely not to clinch but end up with the most delegates, and come close enough that he can pick Rubio as his VP and win the nomination. He might convince Kasich to be VP instead. Its even possible Cruz finishes third and Trump makes a deal with Cruz to be VP. The chances for Trump not to be the nominee are something less than 10%. Then its more likely to be Kasich than Cruz but that the ticket is those two, Kasich for President with Cruz as his VP (or vice versa). A very very distant chance is that someone other than the current 3 finalists is the nominee that would require not just a deadlocked convention but many rounds of voting with no alliance forming and three pigheaded candidates refusing to budge. Only then someone else might emerge as the emergency compromise candidate, and that is most likely then Paul Ryan.

Trump Rubio is the most likely ticket. Trump could clinch the nomination and get to pick his ideal surprise VP candidate (we’d all love to know who it was, that was the genius idea by Trump when he plotted this run). And there are long-shot chances that Kasich or even Cruz might be Trump’s VP. But Trump is almost certainly the Republican nominee. But he won’t get to clinch before June 7 by any means. So this messy race will continue on the Republican side for three more months.

HILLARY 1,599 DELEGATES

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton had a massive March 15 running the table on Bernie Sanders and padding her victory in a couple of the states with a large increase to her delegate lead. She is now at 67% of the delegates needed to clinch. Of the remaining delegates available, Hillary only needs to win 33% and she is the nominee. She leads all the national polling and most state polls, and was winning 55% of the votes on March 15, so even if she just holds this level of support, she’ll clinch on May 17 (when Kentucky and Oregon vote). But before that date her home state of New York votes with a massive delegate haul and Hillary is likely to win significantly more than 55% of those delegates, I project Hillary to actually clinch on May 3 (Indiana). She would have wanted to have dispensed of Bernie long before May but this is still a month earlier than the last day of voting and after the death-march she had with then-candidate Barack Obama in 2008, Hillary will take this with a smile. It gives her plenty of time to heal any broken feelings among Bernie supporters and get the Democrats to join in a big happy tent for their Convention.

BERNIE 844 DELEGATES

Bernie has reached the level of 35% of the delegates needed to clinch. He is collecting just slighly more than one half of what Hillary has, when Superdelegates are included and it means that while mathematically Bernie still has a chance, statistically, he is almost out of it. Bernie would have to win 67% of the remaining delegates to clinch. By April 19, when New York votes, Bernie will be statistically out of it and realistically Hillary is the nominee. After New York, Bernie would need to somehow win over 80% of the remaining delegates and that is of course impossible. But because they keep awarding all states proportionately, it does take a long time to clinch. As I said, the date of the mathematically elimination for Bernie won’t come until in May.

Bernie won’t become VP. He will have a big speaking role at the convention. Hillary will give him some nice job in her administration. He will of course endorse her and will do a bit of campaigning for her too. Note Trump will run rumors about Bernie being his VP pick but Bernie will repeatedly shoot those down.

NEXT THREE MONTHS

The race on the Democratic side is now over for the counting. Bernie will know it but he will fight on. He has no real desire to burn down the party and will play the role of the loyal foot soldier when that time comes. Most of his supporters will happily transition to become Hillary supporters while not with the same level of passion they had for their Socialist uncle.

On the Republican side the debate stunt by Trump will force Cruz’s hand and the establishment to go full nuclear in their TV ad blitzes and whatever media visibility they can generate. Trump will continue to drop in on telephone call interviews on TV news shows and continue his serial lying. His supporters stay with him and the opposition to Trump will solidify. The exact opposite of what is happening with Democrats will happen on the Republican side. The divisions grow deeper and the party becomes ever more angry and bitter and torn. The tactical moves by especially Cruz (why didn’t you attack earlier and more) but also Kasich (wimp, enabler of Trump, why didn’t you attack earlier and more) will be questioned by all those alarmed that the Republican party is headed to an epic election loss, and in response, Cruz and Kasich will both amp up their attacks on Trump - but now without a suitable venue when there are no more debates. It will mostly be too little and too late, but it will mean more hostility and negative ads.

As Hillary gets to be the presumptive nominee, she can also turn her full attention on Trump. As Bernie also feels quite angry about what Trump is doing to the electoral process, as his run is approaching his end, he too will pivot to ever more attacks on Trump. And did you see POTUS? The sitting President mostly stays out of the daily politics of an election he is not involved in, but he is clearly stepping up his displeasure about Trump. Again, it won’t matter one iota to loyal Trump supporters (many who think Obama is Kenya-born socialist radical terrorist usurper) but to the independents, the orchestrated anti-Trump echo chamber from all sides will take its toll. The rock-solid ceiling Trump has nationally will only be fortified further. His general election ceiling is about 40% and Hillary will sleep-walk to a 60-40 epic landslide victory similar to how Ronald Reagan beat Walter Mondale (18 points) or Richard Nixon beat George McGovern (22 points). With Hillary’s massive election victory the Democrats retake control of the Senate and the House, and either through Obama’s nomination or in her first months as President, Hillary will also see the Supreme Court balance flipped from conservative to liberal. It will be a very rare tri-fecta flip of three separate bodies in government, combined with a very rare third Presidential term for the same party.

AND THEN..

Hillary’s VP will be Julian Castro. She will win easy re-election in 2020. During her 8 years in office she will reverse most of the various rules and laws and court rulings that cause the elections currently to favor Republicans. That means that whether its in 2016 or 2018 or 2020 or latest 2022, Hillary will also have a filibuster-proof Senate. And the first Supreme Court vacancy that Hillary has after she has the filibuster-proof Senate, she will fill with.. Barack Obama. She may nominate him already now in 2017 even if she doesn’t quite have a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate (which she might have).

So the 2020 race for President on the Republican side will feature Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz among the front-runners regardless of how this year’s VP choice goes. But that election will be another massive loss to the Republicans. The first Presidential race where the Republicans have a chance will not come until 2024 when its sitting VP Julian Castro who will try to run for (by then massively popular ex-President making popular populist rulings from the Supreme Court bench) Obama’s fifth term, haha...

Comments

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi all

USA Today has rare interview with Joel Benenson, Hillary's campaign manager who was data anytics boss in Obama's two campaigns (and likely to be very senior in Hillary's administration). He confirms that if Trump is the rival, they will be campaigning in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina - meaning Hillary camp is laying groundwork for election landslide significantly bigger than Obama's 2008 victory.

Meanwhile we hear continuously the whispers that outside of Trump's own visiblity, his campaign is remarkably bare in any other normal campaign operations on the ground for example, which not just limits his chances in miscellaneous primaries, but also impacts rather heavily against his chances in the Autumn if the campaign isn't preparing now for that race. Benenson talks about the side-benefit of a prolonged fight against Bernie, that they can continue to organize on the ground. Article is here

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/03/30/clinton-strategist-joel-benenson-trump/82417676/

If battle of 2016 is not for Wisconsin, Nevada, Colorado on the 'light-blueish hue of purple' states but rather well into pink states usually won by Republicans ie Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina - then its a landslide coming. We'll know much more when the actual campaigning starts and we see where they spend TV ad dollars and the main candidate's time but this is a major sign. North Carolina was also on Obama's two campaign targets (he won in 2008 and lost it in 2012) but not more red states of Arizona or Georgia.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Wayne Borean]

@Tomi,

I'm going to break this up into sections. First, you talked about drugs.

I know quite a bit about drugs personally. I live on Morphine, and take amounts that would put you unconscious, but I'm safe to drive. If I don't take the stuff, I'm unsafe to drive because the pain is so intense I can't concentrate.

I've also used marijuana for pain. While it works, it doesn't work as well as morphine. At least not for me.

A while back I was doing some reading, and apparently those drug studies from the Seventies that found IQ loss from drug use were designed to find that. In simple terms they cooked the numbers to order, so that the War on Drugs would have a solid basis.

And as someone who has been using Morphine, Oxycontin, and a couple of other opiates for over a decade, I can assure you that my mind is as sharp as it ever was. In some ways it is sharper, pain really mucks up your though processes.

There are side effects of course, as there are with anything (even coffee). The major one is intestinal, and I have to take Metamucil daily. But I'm willing to put up with that, as long as I'm not at the 'cut the damned leg off with a chainsaw' level of pain. Of course I'm never out of pain, it is just less extreme.

[Wayne Borean]

Section 2

First, before we consider a split in the Republican Party, everyone should read this Wikipedia article:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ballot_access

The United States is one of only two countries where the Federal Government does NOT control Federal elections. The individual states control who will be on the ballots, which means a party could be blocked from running candidates in that state. This makes starting a third party extremely difficult, if not impossible. Just think - the XYZ Party starts with a bang, but can't get their House and Senate candidates on the ballot in [Insert State Name Here], never mind their Presidential candidate!

The argument used is that too many parties would split the vote. Curiously, the other countries which still use the 'First Past the Post' system don't have that problem, and have never had that problem. The United Kingdom has four parties in their Parliament. Canada has five parties in Parliament.

Assume that the Ballot Access problem is fixed. In some ways it might make sense for the Clinton to introduce legislation to do so, since the Democratic Party is less likely to split then the Republican Party, which is made up of many competing political demographics. I'm going to list a few of them, and invite everyone else to chip in.

1) Anti-Abortion - believe abortion is murder.

2) Anti-Tax - believe that taxes are killing them.

3) Religious Freedom - believe that the Christian religion is threatened.

4) Anti-Gay - believe that Same-Sex Marriage will call the wrath of God down on the USA.

5) Gun Rights - believe that an expansive view of the Second Amendment is the most important issue.

6) Anti-Foreigner - believe foreigners are taking American jobs.

7) Racist - segregate the races, or send them back to wherever.

8) Bomb Syria (and Iran, and Palestine, and Iraq, and Afghanistan, and Korea, and...)

Now some of these groups have issues in common. Racists and Anti-Foreigners will agree on many issues. Both may agree with the Bomb Everyone crowd. If the groups have enough issues in common they may combine.

But those groups probably don't have enough issues in common with the Anti-Abortion group, and while they agree with the Gun Rights group, the Gun Rights Group has lots of members who the Racists don't like, and a lot of the Gun Rights folks I know do not like Racists.

That's a huge part of the Republican Party's current problems. They have a coalition that isn't natural. They've squashed a bunch of groups with conflicting interests into one huge, unhappy family.

Which is why you get Trump supports who would vote for Bernie. I think I said something several months ago about how Sanders and Trump have a lot of things in common. Both claim to be for the little guy, and spend a lot of time addressing them. Both are running campaigns which are not funded by the usual suspects, which means they aren't beholden to Wall Street, Fossil Fuels, Pharmaceuticals, Automakers, or [Insert Pressure Group Here].

I'm too lazy to look for it right now, but there was something similar that came out about Sanders supporters, that there were a certain percentage that would rather support Trump than Clinton.

At this point I suspect I may be going in circles. I'm watching woman's hockey with one eye, typing with the other!

Point is, the Republican Party can't currently split. It is most likely impossible due to Ballot Access laws. If you have to receive 20% of the popular vote to get on next election's ballot, well, if there are five parties it is possible no one would make it!

If Clinton can get rid of the Ballot Access laws, so the Republican Party could split, the various parts could make up five or six smaller parties, some of which would attract Democrats. There are a lot of Democrats who want to support the less fortunate, but despise abortion. Since a large part of the Anti-Abortion movement is involved for religious reasons, they might be open to an enlarged Welfare State. For that matter there are Gun Rights Democrats, and Anti-Foreigner Democrats too...

I personally can't see Clinton being willing to try opening up the American electoral system. What would be the advantage to her? Oh, it might take a while for the new parties to shake down, and develop solid policy ideas, giving the Democrats a couple of 'Free' elections, but it won't matter to her, because the current Republican Party is already guaranteeing at least eight years of a Democratic Presidency, and probably six years of Democratic control of both houses.

I can see her trying to move control of elections to the Federal level. This is her FIFTH Federal election campaign, counting her two as spouse, her campaign against Obama, her campaign supporting Obama, and this campaign. If anyone has seen how broken the system is, she has.

Don't hold your breath.

[Tomi T Ahonen]

hi everybody

Just in case you didn't notice, I just posted the next of my articles in the election series. Now that the brokered convention (contested, deadlocked) has become the most likely outcome on the GOP side, I mapped out the scenarios for each candidate. Lets move the current discussions also there.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi Wayne

Good comments. On the drugs, I'll take your word on it and won't try it myself haha..

On the split of the GOP, I don't see it as much as Hillary's agenda, more that its like you said, an unnatural alliance and Trump or Cruz might force the split, or the decline of the Tea Party in the next few election cycles might drive it. I do understand that its not easy to do with ballot access and in the very short term (this cycle) its in many states already too late. But there also are many small third parties and a Trump or Cruz (or even mainstream GOP 'escape' group) could go take over such a party and then have their ballot access. Not necessarily easy but could maybe be done.

A split in the GOP is not the main outcome but a possible side-benefit that I personally think it COULD be good for the USA but also, even if it was tried, it could fail and only one of the two split entities might survive in the style of the Bull Moose party or the Whigs.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi Wayne

Sorry I forgot, meant to also address the Bernie voters vs Trump voters. Yes. There is soem overlap which seems utterly bizarre to me but it has been documented for example by interviews of audiences at Trump and Bernie rallies.

But.

There is fresh Pew data of all voters of the last 5 candidates on the major issues on the minds of voters this cycle. Bernie and Trump are furthest apart of the 5 - in the minds of voters. Bernie and Hillary are closest of any of the 5, and across the parties, Hillary and Kasich are nearest. So while yes, there would be SOME overlap and a voter now supporting Bernie would go to Trump rather than Hillary (or vice versa) but by FAR the MOST of Bernie's supporters would fall happily in line to vote for Hillary. This is fresh survey data out two or three days ago. It also means Hillary has a VERY clear contrast vs Trump while Kasich would be closest to Hillary and thus offer most the chance to steal some moderate voters. It all is consistent with the conventional wisdom but now there is clear survey data. But yes, some Bernie voters would rather vote for Trump than Hillary. That is a SMALL slice of Bernie voters. FAR more Republicans hating Trump would vote for Hillary instead of Trump than what Bernie voters would go to Trump so its a net loss to Trump. And this is today, before Bernie and Hillary kiss and make up well before the convention while Trump keeps sticking his foot in his mouth and angering his base.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Wayne Borean]

I don't fully trust polls. So much depends on who you ask and how...

Oh, and here's an article partly about the differences between Clinton and Sanders as seen by younger voters. I'll post it under the new article as well so everyone sees it.

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/why-young-people-are-right-about-hillary-clinton-20160325?page=3

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi Wayne

Good article by RS and I agree with pretty much all of it. But the November election won't be between Bernie and anyone. It will be Hillary and most likely Trump. Yes, Bernie is far more preferred by the youth Democrats than Hillary. Every exit poll said that. But that won't matter just like it doesn't matter that Hillary has somewhat negative favorability - if her opponent is Trump who has the worst favorability of any politician ever measured. Same with youth vote - it was already in 2008 that the youth voted against Hillary and for Obama. She's never held that demographic - BUT TRUMP IS FAR WORSE. Trump has BY FAR the worst YOUTH vote (and worst gender gap and worst Hispanic vote and worst black vote). So when its Hillary vs Trump - the youth will FAR prefer Hillary and MOST DEF will not vote Trump. The only Democrats that Trump will find some converts out of, are WHITE OLDER BLUE COLLAR voters - even those, HILLARY is the strongest Democrat in recent years to appeal to THOSE voters. So even there, Trump has a hard time taking those voters.

But yeah, Rolling Stone. Yes, totally agree, youth have valid gripes and especially in foreign policy Hillary has been a hawk clearly and isn't their fave candidate. But Trump is FAR worse and while yes, Bernie would do BETTER with youth than Hillary, Hillary wlll still have a massive voter advantage if its Trump (or Cruz).

Its EXACTLY the same as the issue of Hillary's negative favorability rating. It would be a problem against most rivals but not Trump (or Cruz).

PS just saw that there are now developments and at least two sources confirm the phone numbers on Anonmous claim of the DC Madam phone list are indeed Cruz's mobile phone number... And while Cruz threatened to sue Twitter, Cruz has been asked about the DC Madam and he refuses to answer the question and won't deny it.. looking really bad for him. Meanwhile the Supreme Court has added the request to release the gag order to its docket, so there should be a ruling within some days. Cruz may be out of the game by the end of this week. Wow...

Tomi Ahonen :-)