The End Game Scenarios in US Primary Race - Trump likely has to give VP slot to Rubio to avoid deadlocked convention

March 15 Super Tuesday produced interesting and mixed results in the race for US President. On the Democratic side the race is even more clear. But on the Republican side while Donald Trump essentially swept the races, the contest became more muddled and arguaby the outcome is now worse than it was just before the results. It now does seem like the Republican party is headed to a contested Convention. So lets look at each of the five remaining candidates and how they might still win it, and what other possibilities are out there for them.

KASICH 146 DELEGATES

John Kasich cannot clinch the nomination with a majority of delegates. There are not enough delegates left, even if he won all that remain, he would fall short of 1,236 which is the magic number to clinch on the Republican side. There are only 918 delegates left so Kasich would fall short even if he somehow pulled the miracle of winning all that is left. That does not mean that Kasich cannot win the nomination but Kasich does need a lot of luck going his way now. He needs essentially all the luck.

Kasich can win via the delegate hunt either by getting the most of all delegates if nobody else gets to clinch either; or if Kasich gets the most of non-Trump delegates and Trump falls short of clinching 1,236 delegates. Lets see how these would play out. In the perfect case, Kasich now is able to consolidate the moderate vote, from Marco Rubio supporters and the undecided voters. He would need for Trump’s support to fall a bit from its current peak of 40.5% that Trump received on March 15. If we say Ted Cruz only gets to about 15% of the vote in the remaining races and Trump is held to about 35%, then Kasich would keep the remaining about 50%. If this level held nationally, then Kasich could essentially run the board on the remaining race. He would need to be perfect in winning all remaining races and even that is not enough, he would also have to pick up the vast majority of the proportional (and unbound) delegates that remain. They are in states that are favorable to Kasich (Pennsylvania, Oregon, Rhode Island, New Mexico etc). Then Kasich would also have to win the vast majority of the votes in states where there are congressional district delegates won on winner-take-all basis. That is a kind of proportional race where again the moderate vote is likely to dominate in most of the big states with such delegates, specifically California and New York. If Kasich runs the table on the remaining states, and of these delegates that are not purely winner-take-all, with his 50% votes, Kasich took 65% of those delegates (Trump 20%, Cruz 15%) then the math works out just barely, that Kasich ends with most delegates, about 850, compared to 815 for Trump and 505 for Cruz.

Kasich would need to be perfect now from here till the end. Note he cannot afford to lose Arizona next week, a winner-take-all state where Trump and Cruz both are ahead of Kasich in the latest polling, but those polls were taken when Rubio was still in the race. If Kasich can get the party to join and support him (they distrust Trump and hate Cruz) and if Kasich gets broad local support like say Senator John McCain in Arizona, he can theoretically do this. Note, he needs a lot of luck, in that Trump won’t crush Cruz, but that they nearly split the remaining delegates. But Kasich can still win the delegate race and if Kasich has the most delegates, where nobody clinches, Kasich will be the nominee. The party would prefer him because he has clearly the best chances against Hillary Clinton in the general election. The ticket would almost certainly then be Kasich with Cruz (Trump would never agree to be VP)

A more likely scenario for Kasich is that he won’t catch Trump but picks up more delegates than Cruz from now till the end and finishes with second most delegates. If Trump doesn’t get to 1,236 delegates and Kasich finishes second, with say 700 delegates to Trump at say 950, then Kasich could build a coalition of non-Trumps via Cruz and possibly also Rubio, to then become the Presidential nominee. Its conceivable that Kasich gets there from as low a level of his own won delegates as 650 (when 1,236 are needed to clinch). So if Trump finished with 1,100 delegates, Kasich 650, Cruz 550 and Rubio 172, then if Kasich can just get both Cruz and Rubio to join ‘his side’ against Trump, Kasich can become the nominee. He needs to finish ahead of Cruz (who has 412 delegates now) and for Trump not to clinch. Then its up to the negotiations of a contested Convention scenario where Rubio would play kingmaker.

To get to 650 delegates (with Trump not clinching), Kasich would only need to win about 50% of the non-Winner-take-all delegates (including unpledged and congressionally distributed delegates) and then win just over half of the delegates of the remaining full winner-take-all state contests. This is quite plausible, as long as Kasich now consolidates the non-Trump and non-Cruz votes, and gets to roughly 50% of the total votes in the remaining states. That is a tall order, as Trump has climbed to just over 40% of the votes already, and that was before Rubio was out. Trump might now get to 42% to 45% and then no matter how poorly Cruz does, Kasich can’t get to the level he needs. Its still a race but he is the severe underdog. Then if he doesn’t beat Cruz, Kasich will be in the VP hunt. But Kasich might still become the Presidential nominee if the convention is deadlocked after many votes. I’ll deal with that possibility later in this article. Now lets take..

CRUZ 412 DELEGATES

Ted Cruz had a bad, very bad, un-Super Tuesday on March 15. His campaign made several tactical mistakes. Cruz lost Missouri by 2,000 votes out of over a million cast. He fought for Missouri, he knew going in, that of the Super Tuesday states, Missouri was probably his best bet, being mostly a winner-take-all state (15 of the state delegates go to winner-take-all but the rest are by congressional district) but one that is near Texas, has plenty of conservative and religious voters and as Kasich and Rubio were stuck fighting for their home states of Ohio and Florida. North Carolina was a proportional state so nobody was going to fight for it as hard, and Illinois was far more friendly to Trump. Cruz should have prioritized Missouri far more than he did. Instead Cruz wasted money and effort to briefly fight for Florida (a state he had no chance of winning, and where Rubio was clearly losing by all the polls, so he didn’t need to go destroy Rubio) and neither did it make sense to go waste money in Ohio. Just the last debate, if Cruz had bothered to attack Trump half of the opportunities he had, Trump would have lost more than those 2,000 votes that was the difference in Missouri, and Cruz would have taken 15 more delegates.

While Cruz is the clear number two in the race, he is essentially now without any aces left in the game. He is like an army that ran out of ammunition. All the best states that were supposed to favor Ted Cruz as the candidate, have gone, and almost all went for Trump instead. Cruz will pick up random few delegates here and there, but unless the game is dramatically changed, he cannot get to the nomination. Not because its mathematically or even statistically impossible. (Cruz would need to win 90% of all remaining delegates to clinch the nomination - that is statistically impossible while mathematically still possible; and for Cruz to get the most delegates, if Trump is kept to say 950, Cruz would have to win 65% of the remaining delegates and Kasich kept to essentially nothing). Cruz can plausibly get to the most delegates ahead of Trump without anybody clinching, but that would need a huge change in the game now. A huge change. And Cruz had been hoping to get to face Trump one-on-one, thinking he’d then destroy Trump in the debates. That road was now demolished by Trump.

Again, we saw this scenario developing. Trump was signalling it all along. It makes it all the more bewildering that after two debates of heavy attacks on Trump, which clearly damaged Trump (and helped Cruz) why did he suddenly relent last time. Now Trump said he won’t debate again. And bizarrely also Kasich immediately joined in and said, he too won’t debate (rather than mock Trump for being a coward, effectively disarming all who would have attacked Trump for this). And now Cruz has his last joker card removed from his hand. He is helpless. He could probably yes, destroy Trump in a one-on-one debate, and do a lot of damage even in a three-way debate even if Kasich was continuing his Mr Nice Guy role, but now? Cruz has nothing left to try. He is out of ammo. He can only helplessly watch as the remaining primaries go to states that are moderate, that are mostly Northern states, that are often ‘blue’ states where Democrats tend to win and where Republicans are often moderate - and watch how his national polling of 30% won’t translate to even 25% of the delegates.

Cruz does have a strong base and has plenty of a lead, he’ll pick up some delegates definitely in the remaining states mainly because some still have proportional delegates. But his strength in caucus states is also ending. The last state with a caucus is now Utah, next week. Then all remaining states are primaries. And several of the more ‘blue’ states have high minimum thresholds like New York, Connecticut and Washington state, which have 20% thresholds. Cruz may well not hit that threshold in those states and be cut out of any delegates awarded.

Cruz’s more likely road to victory is that Trump doesn’t clinch, and Cruz finishes a clear second, ahead of Kasich. To do that Cruz has to pivot strongly to the moderate side and try to get some support from his party. He was not served well that the least feisty rival, the most moderate rival, Kasich is the one left as the third wheel rather than Rubio. Kasich has plenty of ‘party establishment’ support but better than that for Kasich, both of the remaining rivals are deeply distrusted or hated by most in the party establishment. Cruz is exceptionally poorly placed to pick up support from his party, against Trump. In practise, Cruz now needs to monitor two races and stay between the surging Kasich and hope that Trump remains under the level of clinching. If Cruz can finish second, he has a good chance of becoming the nominee, but Cruz strongest chance is if Trump is held to below 1,064. Because Rubio’s 172 delegates would be enough for Trump to win the nomination even at that level - by picking Rubio as his VP. So in terms of practical numbers, Cruz best hope is for Trump to finish under 1,000 delegates and Cruz to finish second. Then it doesn’t really matter if its 999 delegates for Trump, 660 delegates for Cruz and 640 for Kasich, as long as Cruz is the highest non-Trump finisher in delegates, he has the legitimate call for being the nominee of the party as long as he then builds the coalition with Kasich (and most likely also Rubio) to get above the 1,236 total delegate level. It would mean a severely fractured party with Trump making a nasty scene but Cruz does have a viable path to become the nominee, but now, he does not control his destiny. If Kasich outperforms and finishes with more delegates than Cruz, or if Trump can get to at least 1,064 delegates, then Cruz will be left at the altar.

TRUMP 691 DELEGATES

Trump essentially ran the table on March 15, where yes, Kasich won his home state of Ohio but those really don’t count. Of everything else that was on the table, Trump won. He even snatched Florida from Rubio who should of course have won his home state but Trump had led in all Florida polls for six months now. Trump has however, run a bad campaign regularly damaging his own prospects. So consider the competition. Normally in most years its a good thing when the front-runner sees a low level challenger drop out like now Rubio or earlier Dr Ben Carson, Chris Christie and Jeb Bush. Except this does not hold for Trump. Any modestly competent junior campaign manager could show Trump that he cannot let the race become a two-man race, and the more rivals hang on in the race the longer, the better it is for Trump, precisely because of the ‘winner-take-all’ states (and also winner-take-all congressional districts) where if Trump has a ceiling of 40%, if its a two-man race, he loses 40-60 but if its a five-man-race he can easily win with the exactly same limited 40% by winning 40-20-20-10-10. When it was clear Cruz was his main rival, Trump should have stopped attacking Jeb and Rubio, and try to let them hang on in the race as long as possible, and only attacking whoever was strongest of his rivals, ie Ted Cruz, to keep him at or under that 20% level. That Rubio quit now, is really bad news for Trump. It almost guarantees that Trump cannot clinch with 1,236 delegates. But if Rubio had stayed in the race on a hopeless race in third (or even fourth) place, it would have helped splinter the non-Trump vote more. Because Trump appeals across the board to all types of Republicans, he would do well in a broad field in the various mostly moderate congressional districts of say California and New York state. Now instead, Kasich gets to consolidate those and will pick up many that Trump would have won, had Rubio remained in the race.

But thats water under the bridge and Trump isn’t someone to worry about past mistakes. But we as observers should note, Trump’s campaign is full of mistakes and lost opportunities. Had he run a really smart campaign, he’d be at near 50% of the national vote of Republicans (not 37% what he has averaged since the start of the voting) and he’d be near to clinching by now. Instead, he is now in jeopardy of not clinching by June 7. So lets start first off, with what does Trump need to actually clinch the nomination.

Trump can clinch the nomination outright, its a tall ask but not impossible. Out of all proportional delegates (including districts awarded by winner-take-all) he would need to win 55% of the delegates which is not far above the about 42% to 45% of the national vote he now holds (probably, as he’ll pick up some of the Rubio supporters as he quit the race). As many of those states have high minimum thresholds, and the way the rules are written, the guy who is leading in the votes overall, gets more than his share of the delegates. Then Trump would still need to win 2 out of every 3 delegates in the remaining winner-take-all states and he’ll just hit 1,236 delegates. Trump certainly cannot clinch before the last day of voting, June 7, but now, that is not the most likely scenario anymore. It is however, very plausible, clearly well within statistical possibility while not statistical probability. And note, Trump leads in almost all in-state polls we’ve seen everywhere, and his main challenger for winning among the remaining 918 delegates is no longer Cruz, it is now Kasich who lingered in third or fourth place in most in-state polling, so Kasich has to win over voters who recently were for Rubio or even Carson. In pure math terms, Trump has to win 59% of all delegates outstanding and as the polling leader now, who has moved above 40% and his nearest challenger nationally was at under 30% (Cruz) before Rubio dropped out - that is certainly within reason but its not the most likely scenario for Trump.

Its because of his ceiling. As we’ve seen, Trump has a solid ceiling he can’t pierce. He now was at 40.5% his best day of voter support yet, but that not even 50% of the votes. I think his actual final ceiling is close to 45% (nationally averaged) but Trump is so much prone to self-induced damage to his campaign and his reputation, that he may well have stalled and see his support fall from here to the end. Even if Trump climbs to 45% of votes, then to go from that to 59% of the remaining delegates is a tall ask. Something like 55% or 52% of the delegates remaining is far more likely. Its almost certain that Trump will take the most of the remaining delegates, but he could take as few as 320 (35% of the remaining delegates) and if Cruz and Kasich split the remainder, Trump would still technically win the most of the remaining delegates, but then end up with just 1,011 total delegates at the end. Most, but not enough to clinch, even if he was to form an alliance with Marco Rubio. The main issue is now, how many delegates can Trump pick up of those 918 still outstanding. It could be as few as 300, it could be as many as 600. 545 of them (59%) is enough to clinch the nomination and end with Trump at 1,236 delegates. But only 373 (41%) is what Trump needs, to get to the magic number if he adds the delegates from Marco Rubio. Something like 430 delegates (47%) is what I think is most likely, as I studied the remaining races and the three men left contesting. Its essentially the same level (slighly below) what Trump has won so far. That is why Trump is now willing to ‘play out the clock’ in the race, to not debate anymore and to go hide. He feels he will end up with enough delegates and such a dominating lead, that whether its with Rubio’s support or maybe by outright clinching the nomination, Trump can sense he has won the race. And to underline his point he is threatening violence at the Convention if Trump were to be denied at that time.

So the most likely scenario I think is that Trump finishes between 1,064 and 1,235 delegates and Trump announces Marco Rubio as his VP. The rules of the Convention are then ammended enough that Rubio’s supporters can vote for the Trump-Rubio ticket and Trump is pronounced the winner. Cruz and Kasich supporters will be very unhappy but they will feel that Rubio at least is a reasonable VP. The Convention will not actually splinter into a fight. Note, Trump will be in the driver’s seat and he will also negotiate with Kasich in this case, and while Kasich now says he won’t join with Trump, if the math is clear on June 8, that Kasich will end with nothing, or Kasich can be VP to Trump’s failing Presidential bid (or else it will be rival Rubio), at that time Kasich may well have a change of heart. And I do think Trump would prefer Kasich as his VP, judging by how poorly Rubio did even in his home state of Florida. But also Kasich does seem like an exceptionally well anchored man of his convictions, and one rare candidate who is likely to stick to his word and not join Trump. So a highly likely scenario is that Trump is the Presidential nominee and Kasich is the VP, if Trump finishes with under 1,236 delegates and in that case Trump may be well under 1,000 if Kasich has more delegates to throw in.

I’d say the second most likely scenario is that Trump clinches with 1,236 delegates, maybe with a few dozen to spare but it will be only barely above that level. The third most likely scenario is that Trump still gets the most delegates but its under the Rubio VP level ie under 1,064. That Trump finishes say with 950 delegates and Cruz with say 750 and Kasich with say 600. This would be the ‘war’ scenario, where an unholy alliance with Cruz and Kasich would get to the delegates to clinch but Trump who had won the most delegates and most states, would be denied. A Cruz-Kasich ticket would emerge and Trump would raise all sorts of hell both at the Convention and thereafter, including a possibility of a run as an independent, or probably as bad, endorsing Hillary Clinton out of spite.

And if Trump is below 1,064, he’d then try every negotiating trick and every way to bribe and cajole his rivals to somehow join his ticket. He’d try to get Kasich on board, he’d try to do some tricks to get some voters to defect on the second ballot. And if he could not get there any other way, Trump would even offer the VP slot to Cruz. I cannot see Cruz finishing second and accepting Trump’s VP slot, if Trump cannot clinch without Cruz. Because in that scenario, Cruz can see him on the top of the ticket if only Cruz can convince Kasich (or worst case both Kasich and Rubio) to support Cruz. But if Cruz finishes THIRD, then yes, I can see Trump making some deal with Cruz to seal the nomination ahead of Kasich. And Cruz would calculate that he’s better off as Trump’s VP nominee where Trump cannot win, than going as Kasich’s VP where Kasich might win over Hillary and Cruz would be stuck being VP for 8 years facing a very tough third-term election then in 2024. At least if Trump loses in 2016, Cruz as VP would be the instant front-runner for 2020.

Because Trump is so far ahead and because he also leads the national polling and those states that have not yet voted but have recently been polled, its very likely that Trump does end with the most delegates. But unless Trump gets to 1,064, he won’t be the front-runner to win the nomination at the Convention. If Trump with Rubio cannot clinch, then its likely the party ‘establishment’ with the various party rules will be used to tilt the balance just enough that a Kasich, Cruz or even more wild ticket will be selected without Trump. And that would mean likely violence, could even be riots at the Convention in Cleveland. But do remember that Trump is indeed a capable negotiator and he is not playing with normal rules. He is utterly without any moral compass, his word is not worth the letters it takes to spell Drumpf. He is ruthless and he is oblivious to any rules or laws. He can easily bribe to get to his way, and make as many wild promises as he feels he needs, without any connection to reality. How many Ambassadorships to London will he promise to various party leaders, how many times will be fill his cabinet posts by overpromising, who knows. But if he fails to get to 1,064 delegates, then the master negotiator will come to play. I would not bet much against Trump even in that case, as his political rivals seem to have been played for suckers at ever level up to now.

One more note. After the votes have been counted on June 7, and if Trump finishes under 1,064, its VERY unlikely that the actual Convention will remain contested. Trump will negotiate behind the scenes feverishly in the intervening six weeks to the Convention, to lock his nomination, dealing with Rubio, Kasich and if needed, even Cruz to get some package agreed, where Trump is on top. And note, it can be something silly unprecedented and wild, he could promise his VP is ‘Co President’. He could promise to commit to a one-term Presidency (a promise he’d break of course). He could do the wildest secret side deals of selling government land to relatives of his VP or whatever. And Trump is rich enough to actually bribe a rival to become ‘independently wealthy’ through some deals via the Cayman Islands, so that regardless of whether the ticket wins in 2016, that rival candidate would suddenly be a genuine multi-millionaire and not have to ever worry about begging for money from donors again, but retire rich. And once again, considering how regularly Trump screws his partners, I would hope those rivals in those deals would bring in the best lawyers to read the fine print and get the money in a bank account in the Caymans before they commit to Trump haha... But yeah. I expect that while the delegate hunt is likely to be non-decisive by June 7, that when the Convention starts, the nominee will be decided. And by most scenarios that is going to be Trump. I’d say Trump-Rubio is the likely ticket at something like 70% probability. An actual contested Convention where we don’t know who will win, and the vote goes to 3 voting rounds or more - that is very unlikely, less than 10% chance. Trump will conclude his VP negotiations well before they gavel the Cleveland Convention to open.

RUBIO 172 DELEGATES

Now I do need to mention Rubio even though he dropped out. First off, he doesn’t actually control his delegates even as he suspended his campaign. He can only recommend to his delegates to vote for someone if he so desires (or not). By various state rules, in most cases, the delegates are bound to vote strictly for the person their state selected them to vote for, in the first round. But after the first round of voting, most become unbound delegates. And in most cases, as Rubio is not going to qualify to be the nominee for President, that usually means, the Rubio delegates are actually unbound from the first vote. Now what actually happens, it depends if there is a genuine contested Convention or if there is a deal. If say Trump has nearly the delegates, say he finishes with 1,200 and he only needs 36 more, and he does the deal with Rubio for VP, then the rules for the Convention no doubt will be amended to allow Rubio delegates to vote for the Trump-Rubio ticket in the first vote. But if its really tight, say Trump finishes with only 1,100 delegates (is 136 short) and Rubio only has his 172, then the Cruz-Kasich alliance could raise all sorts of complaints and demand a straight count, and insist the Rubio voters vote as their states demanded (ie vote for Rubio) or perhaps to vote their conscience, and Trump be denied by a relatively small handful of votes. But after the first round of voting, almost all delegates become unbound, and then the wheeling and dealing would really begin. Some voters in some state delegations would defect to a rival camp, etc. And who knows what would happen. The Cruz or Kasich teams alone are essentially too small to take on Trump but if Cruz and Kasich form an alliance, they can get ahead of Trump. But some of the delegates are truly unbound to begin with. Pennsylvania’s delegates are kind of the weirdest ‘free agent’ delegates right off the bat who can vote how they want (I guess, its not again very clear).

Now the main question is, will Trump clinch. If he clinches the nomination, all else is irrelevant and he can pick whomever he wants as VP and it will not be any of his rivals. But that is no longer the most likely scenario. Its more likely that Trump cannot clinch and he only finishes with most delegates, and then its most likely that Trump gets close enough to be within Rubio’s delegates to clinch. That means Rubio will be in the king-maker position, because obviously equally on the other side, if Rubio were to side with Cruz and Kasich, he could make that ticket the winner with Trump denied. If Trump gets to between 1,064 and 1,235 delegates, then its primarily Rubio (and secondarily Kasich or Cruz, whoever finished third in the delegate hunt) who picks which side wins. And why would Rubio pick Cruz-Kasich? The Cruz-Kasich side (or Kasich-Cruz) will already have their VP. The guy who finished with more delegates is the nominee for President and the number 2 guy is the VP, so lets say its Cruz-Kasich. What can they offer Marco Rubio in that case? Peanuts. A speaking slot at the convention? Trump can give that too. And what else? Secretary of State - IF they win. Before that, Rubio gets nothing. Rubio gets nothing unless that ticket wins. Even then, his two rivals are FAR ahead of Rubio for 2020 and 2024.

But consider Trump. Trump would offer Rubio the VP slot. Now, instantly the nomination convention is celebrating Rubio alongside Trump. Because Trump is so much the distrusted outsider, Rubio could play the three months of the general election race to build ironclad relationships with the party. He’d be the base darling, in the way Sarah Palin was alongside John McCain in 2008. Rubio could easily land a Fox TV job because he is now jobless after his term as Senator ends. After Trump goes down in flames in the general election of 2016, Rubio would be the clear front-runner of his party for 2020. If he wanted to, he could run for the Florida Governor position in the interim years and then be the clear leader going into the 2020 race as the future of the party. Cruz can’t offer Rubio the VP slot because he has to give it to Kasich (or vice versa). So as Rubio isn’t particularly married to the elders of his party who keep telling Rubio to wait his turn, he’d seem like the perfect opportunist to jump in with Trump as his VP. Now, Trump is too smart the negotiator. The moment he has Rubio locked, he’d go to Kasich and get Kasich to switch. Kasich will have more delegates and Kasich is the stronger general election candidate as VP and would deliver Ohio for Trump while Rubio probably could not deliver Florida. But Kasich may be too much the old-fashioned ‘straight arrow’ politician to actually agree to that evil alliance and betray his partner-by-then Cruz. But don’t be surprised if suddenly in late June the story breaks that Kasich will be Trump’s VP and the suddenly the feverishly contested Convention sees peace breaking out. And Rubio would be screwed once again.

And one more wrinkle. Its still possible that Trump stumbles badly in the final months and finishes second in the delegate hunt. If Kasich really catches fire, he could finish slightly ahead of Trump. Or if Cruz had his dream scenario of somehow Kasich quitting and it being the two-man race, and Cruz finishes ahead of Trump. But yes, if Trump finishes a very strong second in the delegate hunt. Then whoever finished ahead of him (it would be Kasich, can’t be Cruz) that rival would only have barely more delegates than Trump. Now Trump would go do the deal(s) needed with Cruz (and possibly also Rubio) to take the nomination. And the same calculation I have for Rubio here, it applies to Cruz if Cruz finishes third. In that case Kasich’s VP slot is worse than Trump’s VP slot, because Kasich might win but Trump is certain to lose. And being the VP of the sure-to-lose Trump would be far better for the next race in 2020, than being stuck as VP running to get Kasich re-elected and waiting till 2024.

DEADLOCKED CONVENTION

It is plausible that Trump finishes above 1,064 but under 1,236 and is unable to make the deal to get to be the Presidential nominee. He is bizarrely still belittling ‘Little Marco’ and humiliating Chris Christie and just acting like the jerk he naturally is. Rubio is ‘Latin’ with a vengeance, being Cuban and as a race, particularly proud. He might simply say no to Trump out of the delight of screwing Trump back. Note there will be pressure and promises from the party for Rubio to reject Trump. In the first vote, each delegate is (or should be) bound to whichever candidate their state voted for. So unless there is some very clear alliance agreed by Cruz-Kasich before the Convention by which some rules are then amended at the last moment, the first vote will then result in no winner. Trump gets say 48% of the delegates, Cruz 28%, Kasich 17%, and Rubio gets 7%. And after that round, the delegates are unbound and the circus begins. Some of those delegates who were bound to vote for Trump, may actually not like him (to begin with, or after the heated race and all the nastiness of Trump). The party will try to tilt the game against Trump as much as possible, as it will be so obvious Trump is headed to a total catastrophic general election loss to Hillary that would cost the Senate and might even flip the House. So from the second round of voting, its likely Trump’s support erodes, not strongly, but somewhat, to say 45%. And then some Rubio voters go to Kasich, some to Cruz, but its possible no alliance ever forms between Kasich and Cruz. And then the voting goes on several times and something close to 40-30-30 voting emerges, Trump slight lead and neither of Cruz or Kasich being able to convert enough to get into the lead.

It could go to a 40-20-40 race with Trump-Cruz-Kasich and still - again, nobody at 50%, remain deadlocked. With two strong candidates, its essentially mathematically certain that one will prevail. If its three reasonably strong candidates, a true deadlock is possible. Then none of the rivals really has any incentive to step aside. Rubio’s chances to be king-maker will be gone. The race is between the three, and each has a die-hard core who won’t give in, meaning none can actually climb to 50%. And if bad blood has built between the three that no pairing of two as the ticket is possible, then it could end up deadlocked. Note, however, that if Kasich consolidates the party establishment, and Trump stays stubborn, it would be Cruz’s dwindling support who would have to accept the VP slot behind a Kasich Presidential nomination, even if Cruz had more delegates than Kasich going into the Convention. Cruz’s bad relationships with the party establishment would come to haunt him and give it to Kasich. But it would require Cruz to finally accept this outcome, and he might stay stubborn and refuse it, insisting its either Cruz or Trump, they finished as top 2 in the delegate hunt.

Then it would get interesting. If it remained deadlocked after one day, then the party would start to float serious compromise candidates. Someone who is not any of the top 3, who would be acceptable to all. And one who would not pick any of the three as VP either. Now, note, Trump would never accept any such compromise in any case. Cruz would fight tooth and nail against it too. But now, the previous rivals would be back in view. What about Marco Rubio or Chris Christie or (haha Dr Ben Carson) or Jeb Bush or Lindsay Graham or Rick Perry or Mike Huckabee etc. And then three other names would loom large - Mitt Romney would desperately love to be asked. Sarah Palin would be once again floated. And Paul Ryan would be the clear favorite compromise choice by everybody, who would resist the urge with all his might, because at this point, it would be yet another epic failure for him. But Paul is a nice guy who likes to accept the responsibility when enough of his peers beg him, and he might become the crisis consensus compromise candidate. And Trump would take all his marbles with him and sulk. Maybe run as independent or else, like I said, nearly as bad, he’d just endorse Hillary Clinton.

SO ITS TRUMP - RUBIO

Almost every scenario has Donald Trump as the Republican nominee. He’s the only one with still a valid statistical chance to clinch. He’s more likely not to clinch but end up with the most delegates, and come close enough that he can pick Rubio as his VP and win the nomination. He might convince Kasich to be VP instead. Its even possible Cruz finishes third and Trump makes a deal with Cruz to be VP. The chances for Trump not to be the nominee are something less than 10%. Then its more likely to be Kasich than Cruz but that the ticket is those two, Kasich for President with Cruz as his VP (or vice versa). A very very distant chance is that someone other than the current 3 finalists is the nominee that would require not just a deadlocked convention but many rounds of voting with no alliance forming and three pigheaded candidates refusing to budge. Only then someone else might emerge as the emergency compromise candidate, and that is most likely then Paul Ryan.

Trump Rubio is the most likely ticket. Trump could clinch the nomination and get to pick his ideal surprise VP candidate (we’d all love to know who it was, that was the genius idea by Trump when he plotted this run). And there are long-shot chances that Kasich or even Cruz might be Trump’s VP. But Trump is almost certainly the Republican nominee. But he won’t get to clinch before June 7 by any means. So this messy race will continue on the Republican side for three more months.

HILLARY 1,599 DELEGATES

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton had a massive March 15 running the table on Bernie Sanders and padding her victory in a couple of the states with a large increase to her delegate lead. She is now at 67% of the delegates needed to clinch. Of the remaining delegates available, Hillary only needs to win 33% and she is the nominee. She leads all the national polling and most state polls, and was winning 55% of the votes on March 15, so even if she just holds this level of support, she’ll clinch on May 17 (when Kentucky and Oregon vote). But before that date her home state of New York votes with a massive delegate haul and Hillary is likely to win significantly more than 55% of those delegates, I project Hillary to actually clinch on May 3 (Indiana). She would have wanted to have dispensed of Bernie long before May but this is still a month earlier than the last day of voting and after the death-march she had with then-candidate Barack Obama in 2008, Hillary will take this with a smile. It gives her plenty of time to heal any broken feelings among Bernie supporters and get the Democrats to join in a big happy tent for their Convention.

BERNIE 844 DELEGATES

Bernie has reached the level of 35% of the delegates needed to clinch. He is collecting just slighly more than one half of what Hillary has, when Superdelegates are included and it means that while mathematically Bernie still has a chance, statistically, he is almost out of it. Bernie would have to win 67% of the remaining delegates to clinch. By April 19, when New York votes, Bernie will be statistically out of it and realistically Hillary is the nominee. After New York, Bernie would need to somehow win over 80% of the remaining delegates and that is of course impossible. But because they keep awarding all states proportionately, it does take a long time to clinch. As I said, the date of the mathematically elimination for Bernie won’t come until in May.

Bernie won’t become VP. He will have a big speaking role at the convention. Hillary will give him some nice job in her administration. He will of course endorse her and will do a bit of campaigning for her too. Note Trump will run rumors about Bernie being his VP pick but Bernie will repeatedly shoot those down.

NEXT THREE MONTHS

The race on the Democratic side is now over for the counting. Bernie will know it but he will fight on. He has no real desire to burn down the party and will play the role of the loyal foot soldier when that time comes. Most of his supporters will happily transition to become Hillary supporters while not with the same level of passion they had for their Socialist uncle.

On the Republican side the debate stunt by Trump will force Cruz’s hand and the establishment to go full nuclear in their TV ad blitzes and whatever media visibility they can generate. Trump will continue to drop in on telephone call interviews on TV news shows and continue his serial lying. His supporters stay with him and the opposition to Trump will solidify. The exact opposite of what is happening with Democrats will happen on the Republican side. The divisions grow deeper and the party becomes ever more angry and bitter and torn. The tactical moves by especially Cruz (why didn’t you attack earlier and more) but also Kasich (wimp, enabler of Trump, why didn’t you attack earlier and more) will be questioned by all those alarmed that the Republican party is headed to an epic election loss, and in response, Cruz and Kasich will both amp up their attacks on Trump - but now without a suitable venue when there are no more debates. It will mostly be too little and too late, but it will mean more hostility and negative ads.

As Hillary gets to be the presumptive nominee, she can also turn her full attention on Trump. As Bernie also feels quite angry about what Trump is doing to the electoral process, as his run is approaching his end, he too will pivot to ever more attacks on Trump. And did you see POTUS? The sitting President mostly stays out of the daily politics of an election he is not involved in, but he is clearly stepping up his displeasure about Trump. Again, it won’t matter one iota to loyal Trump supporters (many who think Obama is Kenya-born socialist radical terrorist usurper) but to the independents, the orchestrated anti-Trump echo chamber from all sides will take its toll. The rock-solid ceiling Trump has nationally will only be fortified further. His general election ceiling is about 40% and Hillary will sleep-walk to a 60-40 epic landslide victory similar to how Ronald Reagan beat Walter Mondale (18 points) or Richard Nixon beat George McGovern (22 points). With Hillary’s massive election victory the Democrats retake control of the Senate and the House, and either through Obama’s nomination or in her first months as President, Hillary will also see the Supreme Court balance flipped from conservative to liberal. It will be a very rare tri-fecta flip of three separate bodies in government, combined with a very rare third Presidential term for the same party.

AND THEN..

Hillary’s VP will be Julian Castro. She will win easy re-election in 2020. During her 8 years in office she will reverse most of the various rules and laws and court rulings that cause the elections currently to favor Republicans. That means that whether its in 2016 or 2018 or 2020 or latest 2022, Hillary will also have a filibuster-proof Senate. And the first Supreme Court vacancy that Hillary has after she has the filibuster-proof Senate, she will fill with.. Barack Obama. She may nominate him already now in 2017 even if she doesn’t quite have a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate (which she might have).

So the 2020 race for President on the Republican side will feature Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz among the front-runners regardless of how this year’s VP choice goes. But that election will be another massive loss to the Republicans. The first Presidential race where the Republicans have a chance will not come until 2024 when its sitting VP Julian Castro who will try to run for (by then massively popular ex-President making popular populist rulings from the Supreme Court bench) Obama’s fifth term, haha...

Comments

[Winter]

Tomi, it can even get worse:

Donald Trump on brokered convention: 'I think you'd have riots'
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/03/16/politics/donald-trump-ted-cruz-brokered-convention/

If there are indeed riots at the convention, or if the Democrats can convince a sizable fraction of the independents that Trump got the nomination with threats, the GOP will truly go down in flames.

[winter]

The GOP senators see the train coming and are running out of its way. It is clear no one in the top of the GOP believes in Trump's chances.

GOP senators break emergency glass on Trump plans

Republicans believe their incumbents can use customized approaches to motivate cross-party voters and ward off a Trump-led disaster.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/gop-senators-break-emergency-glass-on-trump-plans-220926

[cornelius]

In other news the racist Kenyan Muslim communist president (who has a history of using divisive language and has divided USA beyond repair) has nominated Garland, a moderate, for Supreme Court. Of course, the Republicans, having put the national interests first and foremost, don't even want to hear about Garland. Enough with Obama's partisan nominations!
I guess Clinton will have no choice but to nominate a left-leaning candidate for Supreme Court.

[cornelius]

Too bad my straight_face tags are not supported by Tomi's blog platform.

[deadonthefloor]

Superdelegates can change their support at the convention, so Hillary's numbers are not being accurately reported by the media. There are two petitions out there for the DNC to pick the popular vote.

Setting the superdelegates aside for a moment, Bernie is only 314 delegates behind and will most certainly close the gap during the run up to the convention.

It's not over yet.

[cornelius]

@deadonthefloor
Only 314 delegates? Wow, piece of cake considering that there are not many states left and New York is coming. What if Hillary gets more elected delegates than Bernie? Would you then promise to vote for her?

[cornelius]

Obama just endorsed Clinton. Gama over. It's time for Sanders to also endorse Clinton.

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi Overlord, Winter and cornelius

Overlord - actually I have been predicting slight climbs in Trump's ceiling and maintained all along that if the race was down to two, it would be about 40% who would be for Trump but he might be some points above that. And up to the last debate, Trump had only averaged 35% in the first 20 contests. And I said that as the rivals stopped attacking Trump, his support would rise to that approx 40% level. Go re-read the debate review. Now he hit 40.5% on March 15. What did I just now write, he will go slightly above that in remaining races to something near 45%. That is pretty solid ceiling and no front-runner candidate has had so low support within his (or her) party as Trump has, at this point in the race. He is disliked by half of his OWN party (compared with over 80% who like Hillary on the Democratic party side). So while yes, originally I felt Trump's ceiling was lower, I have been willing to raise it somewhat. I did that based on the numbers. I said it had stalled in the 35% range where it stood for four months. And now when the pressure was removed from Trump, I said it will climb a little bit more. But a clear ceiling does exist and its the lowest ceiling of any front-runner candidate that ever was, meaning - of Republican party supporters, Trump will do worst of any candidate in the modern era. So his logic is then - he will attract non-traditional voters, the 'silent majority' which is a myth - but he has yes, attracted the Nazis and haters on the fringe who say openly that Trump is the first Republican they can support - David Duke just now said that Trump's comparisons help improve Hitler's image. Obviously a good civic-minded passion of David Duke's - to help improve Hitler's overly tarnished image. The nutty edge doesn't have the numbers. And in the middle Trump hopes to steal white low-income workers from Democrats, aka 'Reagan Democrats' but now the problem is, that the rival is not an elitist black law professor who is running for the Democrats, its someone seen as a fighter for the middle class and close friend of labor, Hillary Clinton. Yes, there will be defections from the Independents in the middle to Trump, but Hillary is particularly well positioned to hold most of those at bay. Meanwhile Trump is riling up huge anger vote against him by often lazy voters like Hispanics and the youth. Then there is a big wave building of women voters and Hillary is doing a good job of maintaining the black vote. Trump's election loss will be epic. But if you want to continue to believe in magical numbers and Trump bedtime stories, Overlord, feel free :-)

Now on Rubio pick - Rubio is now saying loudly he won't be anybody's VP (I think that can be honestly true what he feels now, and that inspite of it, he could still change his mind by July). But like I said, if Trump can make his pick, ie if Trump gets to 1,237 delegates, he won't pick Rubio or Kasich or Cruz. He has someone else in mind. But if Trump doesn't get to 1,237 delegates - then Trump HAS to do a deal with one of his rivals or he won't win the nomination. He can't technically get to the number if he doesn't bring 1,237 pledged delegates to the first vote. He HAS to make the deal and Rubio is the obvious easiest deal to make, because most likely Trump is only about 100 delegates short and Rubio's 172 delegates is enough to get Trump to his goal. But as I wrote, Kasich or Cruz are also possible depending on the exact numbers. Of the three, Trump would most prefer Kasich but he's also the least likely to agree to a deal with Trump because Kasich is certain to get at least the VP slot with Cruz as well.

Winter - thanks for continuing to bring links to great and relevant articles. The one about Trump threatening violence is again eerily echoing Hitler. Its not that Trump is exactly like Hitler, its more like Trump is the modern 'American bully' version of a 'capitalist' Hitler haha. But he is acting, as if he'd studied Hitler VERY closely, and picking pieces of Hitler's playbook and trialing them on how they might play with Americans. And again - a fascist, nationalist, authoritarian, xenophobic, militaristic message does work to a significant part of the Republican voter base. Now where is the politician who comes with the appeal to 'better angels' kind of positive upbeat message and preaches inclusion and partnership and compromise. That message will not find an audience in 2016 but after historic loss by Trump's divisive hateful campaign, the opening is for a 'Republican Bill Clinton' to come, who says, lets stop the divisions, lets act like grown-ups and lets reach across the aisle. Look at how partisan President Hillary Clinton is, lets we Republicans now be the populist party and be the party of sensible government... Some young Republican in a purple state in local government or maybe a member of the House is now working on that approach. Its time may come in 2020 (more like that is the second year of crash-and-burn with Ted Cruz getting his chance and falling to even worse results than Trump now) but whoever starts that song in 2020, that is likely the front-runner for 2024...

Note in 2024 that 'Republican' candidate will be for sensible gun control; for clear abortion rights for women, no limits (and being for Planned Parenthood); for clean water and air ie for the EPA; for reasonable minimum wage; for raising taxes especially on the rich; for a reasonable military budget ie reasonable cuts to it; for gay rights; will be fully supportive of the evolution of Obamacare-Hillarycare nationalized healthcare. But that person will be for liberties and limited government and more state control vs Washington DC centralized control. What is now essentially an extinct animal, the moderate Republican. That candidate will emerge but probably can't win the nomination until 2024 because probably after Trump, the Ted Cruz experiment has to be run as well, by Republicans to make sure they can't win by nominating a true conservative extremist nut.

Oh, and as I've predicted, Hillary's two terms will be full of scandals large and small, so probably the 'New Republican' will be someone 'pure' and 'honest' the exact opposite of Trump, possibly very religious personally but not judgemental, so someone in the line of say Jimmy Carter in terms of his 'honesty' and 'trustworthiness' but one who won't then push his religious beliefs on others like say Huckabee or Santorum or Cruz.

cornelius - on Garland for SCOTUS, its an interesting play, in that it seems like Obama is taking the bait by Republicans, that ok, they won't approve him now, but if Hillary does win the election, then in the lame duck session in November, the outgoing Republican-led Senate will approve this moderate judge rather than let Hillary pick a more liberal one instead. And some of the analysis and opinion seems to be that Obama would be ok with that, because Obama really likes this guy and thinks he'd make a good judge. And once again, it would mean, that in his desperate attempt to pursue moderation, Obama is played again by the extremists and denial wing of Republicans. What I would love to see happen, is that the polls leading to November suggest a total blow-out landslide, and Obama pulls the Garland nomination, and in her first week, Hillary then nominates Obama.. Shell-shocked after a total landslide wipeout losing the Senate (and House) and right as she enjoys her highest approval numbers after passing a few quick popular and populist executive orders and starting to sign first popular and populist laws, that would be the time to push Obama through to the bench haha. So if you wanted to obstruct this President.. Obama.. then now you're stuck with HIM obstructing you for the next 30 years on a lifetime appointment.. Take that... haha. If the gods of politics had a sense of justice, that would be poetic justice. And also - that Obama would get into the press often as the swing judge who then voted AGAINST Hillary for her over-reaches as POTUS..

Obama is a moderate Democrat, close to a centrist, more moderate than Bill Clinton and far more moderate than Hillary. This judge, Garland, by what I've read, seems like a very 'normal' not radical moderate judge but one who sides on the populist positions on most matters, so he would not try to bring in a Bernie Sandersian Socialist utopia to the nation but he'd still be a liberal judge. I would think as part of the legacy of Obama, that would be a healthy thing. And if I was a Republican, looking at 8 years of Hillary Clinton, then Garland's old age would be a big blessing, once the Hillary term is done, from 2024, the next Republican president (that year or 2028) could possibly be replacing Garland, with a conservative judge. This is a pretty clever chess game move by Obama and I would not be surprised if he won't get to be nominated. Obama and the Democrats could pressure the Republican Senators to actually give Garland the vote before the election, some time during the summer if the Republican brand is badly damaged by the ongoing Trumporama.

Now one other angle. I would not be surprised, if Obama withdraws Garland in the summer, and swaps in a clearly politically-motivated far more liberal judge instead. But one who is of a convenient racial minority group, a black woman for example. And then as Obama joins Hillary on the trail, he can use that nominee as a political tool and now, the Republican party has to nominate the young clearly more liberal judge - in the lame duck session - rather than wait in horror of who it is, that Hillary would nominate when she wins the election and brings in a Senate controlled by the Democrats... And then the rumor would be wild that Hillary will nominate Obama - so the Republicans HAVE to accept Obama's liberal alternative now, rather than take Obama himself on a lifetime appointment haha.. I do think there is a chess game going and Obama has thought this VERY deeply through - and has discussed it with Hillary several times as well, so this is in line with her ambitions too.

But wouldn't it make Mitch McConnell look utterly inept, if Obama swaps out Garland in July, nominates a very liberal, Hispanic young lady judge who is a firebrand about abortion, gay rights, gun rights etc - and then Mitch has to accept that nominee - because the alternative will be Obama himself in February haha... Gotta see how this plays out. But its an interesting angle and when you think rationally about it, the Republican controlled Senate cannot possibly deny the sitting President the nomination of a Supreme Court judge for a year. And of anyone Obama could have nominated, Garland is the least undesirable to the Republicans. They are certain to lose Senate seats this year. Why not take Garland now. Whatever is the alternative from Hillary (or from Obama in the Autumn) will be worse. Are they really going to be this blatantly obviously political to cause their own side such damage now.. Supreme Court justices die. This was the time that the balance was going to switch. They have had a good run of conservative balance in the court. That change cannot be stopped. Take the moderate judge now, rather than a more liberal judge (and younger judge) later. The Republican leadership - especially McConnell - is truly obsessed with Obama-hatred and Obama-blindness.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi deadonthefloor and cornelius

deadonthefloor - Superdelegates are part of the rules. Both parties have quite different philosophies as fits their brand. Republicans are for brutal capitalistic may the strongest not only win but crush the rivals - hence they like the winner-take-all thinking. Democrats are the 'let everybody have a chance' so they have no winner-take-all but the proportional votes means, once the front-runner gets ahead by a meaningful amount, to overtake the front-runner becomes essentially impossible. Hillary's lead now is far larger than what Obama had in 2008. Bernie cannot catch her. But also, like the parties are different, the Democrats have had their nutty candidates and their answer to that conundrum is the Superdelegate. Their number was modest when originally conceived, and have nearly doubled in number over the past three decades. I guarantee you, this year's Trumporama will cause the Republicans to change their nomination rules dramatically - and many will say that (a modest number of) Superdelegates like the DEMs have, is the answer to prevent another Trump. Look at ALL the obvious Superdelegates if the GOP had them like DEMs do - from John McCain to Mitt Romney they'd all be against Trump and if you take 10% of the party's total delegates away - 5% of that would be from Trump now - then Trump would be down to 43% of the delegates and his path to the nomination would be essentially blocked.

Now you say Superdelegates can change their minds - and so they can and indeed, in 2008 some did, switching from Hillary to Obama. This year they won't. Why? Because Bernie can't win the nomination. They KNOW their nominee is going to be Hillary, its been obvious for months, now even Obama is saying in private that the party has to join around Hillary. The race is over. Only a suicidal fool party elder would now jump from the winning Hillary ship to the sinking Bernie boat. Hillary will be in the position to dole out incredible amount of positions of power - with her pals Nancy Pelosi in the House and incoming Senate leader Chuck Schumer. You don't want to now go against her (if you want a career in the Democratic party, that is). No, deadonthefloor, instead of any stream of Superdelegates away from Hillary, you'll see the last sheep joining the flock like Elizabeth Warren. Her lead in the Superdelegate race will also only increase, not decrease. And they have exactly the same votes as regular delegates, so of course you have to count their numbers in the race. These Superdelegates have declared their support of Hillary (and some have declared for Bernie). They have to be counted. They will matter on the exact date of when Hillary clinches. They will not be changing their minds against Hillary, not this far how this race has gone and how foregone is its conclusion. If you want to hold onto hopes that somehow the Democratic party abandons the Superdelegate rules - when they see what disaster Trump does on the other side - feel free to believe that. It won't happen. This blog deals with reality, not fantasy.

cornelius - agree with you response to deadonthefloor and thanks about the Obama news. It is as of now, only a private endorsement, but obviously Obama has been itching to signal his preference in this race. And as Obama has met several times with Hillary, they are no doubt plotting their transition of power - including what will be the role for Michelle, and also that exact way of how the Supreme Court nomination is played. The Obamas have already said they are not moving back to Chicago in 2017 they will stay in DC because they don't want Sasha to have to change schools at this stage in her high school. Would then be a convenient time to have Obama take a few years off, write another memoir, then be available for the next nomination to the Supreme Court. And meanwhile, mom Michelle, could perhaps take a cabinet post with Hillary or some advisor role to raise her profile. What if Washington DC becomes a state, Michelle could run to be its first Governor, probably win by easy landslide. Then by 2024 Michelle could run for President herself.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Winter]

@Tomi
"The Republican leadership - especially McConnell - is truly obsessed with Obama-hatred and Obama-blindness."

I do not think this is the Republican leadership being blinded by hatred. This is the Tea party forcing their hand. I think the Republicans are well aware of this chess game, but they are trapped and their hands are forced.

You only have to read Catriona's comments to see how deeply the wacky side of the GOP depends on reactionary judges to preserve their power. Both for protecting their voter disenfranchisement as their opposition to abortion, gun control, and gay rights. Any attempt by the GOP leadership to accept a moderate would lead to a revolt of the Tea party crowd, and more Trumpzilla followers.

I think Obama&Hillary know very well how to play that divide and conquer game. By nominating a moderate liked by centrists, they play for the moderate votes. At the same time, they force the GOP leadership to alienate the moderates by refusing to even discuss the matter.

[Winter]

On Obama as a SCOTUS member:

Could Obama be the next Supreme Court justice? Hillary Clinton is intrigued.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/01/26/could-obama-be-the-next-supreme-court-justice-hillary-clinton-is-intrigued/

""Wow, what a great idea!" she told a man in Decorah, Iowa, at a town hall meeting. "Nobody has ever suggested that to me. Wow. I love that!""

"It's also worth noting that Obama has already thrown cold water on the idea."

I have some doubts whether the idea was really that new to her. I also have doubts whether Obama will really reject such a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.

[Winter]

And here is the Washington post with the same SCOTUS game as Tomi presented (minus Obama for SCOTUS):

How Obama could get last laugh in Supreme Court fight
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/03/17/how-obama-could-get-last-laugh-in-supreme-court-fight/

[Winter]

And more on the fracturing of the GOP

GOP declares war on voters
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/16/gop-declares-war-on-voters-commentary.html

[Winter]

And more analysis on the SCOTUS gamble

How Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton Complicate GOP Opposition to Obama’s Supreme Court Nominee
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2016/03/16/how-donald-trump-and-hillary-clinton-complicate-gop-opposition-to-obamas-supreme-court-nominee/

"Stonewalling Mr. Obama’s nominee has the potential to damage a number of vulnerable GOP incumbent senators, so holding the line against Judge Garland could cost Republicans the Senate as well. That may have been a gamble worth taking when the possibility of a Republican alternative to Mr. Trump could gain the presidency. But Mr. McConnell must now consider whether the risk of losing the Senate is a worthwhile one given the virtual certainty that a President Hillary Clinton would almost certainly nominate a younger and less moderate justice than Mr. Garland."

[cornelius]

Even if Rubio said that he won't accept a VP role, I think he will be smart enough to accept it. Otherwise his political career is kind of over. He will not be elected senator in Florida ever again. But as a VP he has a chance to stay in politics long enough to rebuild his image, and who knows, maybe even run again for president. He's young so he has time on his side. But I am not sure if Trump will ask him to be his VP considering Rubio's dirty attacks on Trump during his campaign.

[Winter]

@cornelius
"Even if Rubio said that he won't accept a VP role, I think he will be smart enough to accept it."

It depends. If the situation goes downhill and there is violence or the threat of violence at the convention, Trump might become too toxic. Then it could become political suicide to associate with him.

But you are tight. Rubio's options have become limited.

[Millard Filmore]

Hi all, a little more information on the Hillary server scandal. It also touches on the old cell phone wars.

https://www.balloon-juice.com/2016/03/17/the-horror/

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi everybody

The next domino falls... I said I was eager to see the Congressional and Senate race predictions, expecting strong movement in Democratic direction because of the mad policies of the Republicans in the past years and now the nutty extremist candidates. So the Cook Report has just done its first analysis of the 2016 Congressional race. They find 10 contests that should be leaning Republican, now in play, because of Trump or Cruz on top of the ticket. They conclude that already now (March) the House is in play. Now.. who told you so? So many here on this blog said the House is safe because of the heavy gerrymandering. I said not this year..

Separately, I am hoping soon we'll get RCP's polling numbers for the Senate but they have put up the senate individual polls as a page, and look at those.. Essentially all that were recently polled feature either slight leads by the Democrat challenger to contested Republican, or the GOP Senator with only a razor-thin typically one POINT advantage. Sitting GOP Senator 8 months out should be MILES ahead but yeah, the Senate will be a bloodbath (and now the Supreme Court gamesmanship is making it only worse for the sitting Republican Senators. Like Elizabeth Warren said 'Do your job!')

Then several things will happen, to create the perfect storm or a virtuous (or vicious) cycle. Hillary will be seen as highly popular candidate in those contested races, Senate, House, Governor etc. And so she'll be warmly welcomed and hugged by the Democrats. Meanwhile Trump will be feared and most competitive Republicans will not be in town when Trump holds one of his rallies. Then the rising popularity of Obama - he too will be now far more welcome in competitive Democratic districts than he was in 2012 - but there is no Republican past President who would be welcome anywhere except totally red districts, just maybe, but I can't see W Bush even bothering to show up to support Trump haha. Now, consider next the MONEY. Many political donations come from organizations, companies and rich people to both sides (like Trump in the past) but likely with a bias, some like one party, others like the other, but often give to both. Now... Trump and the Republicans are gonna lose badly anyway - plus Trump is hated and feared - so they won't give to Trump nor to the Republican candidates. But Hillary is gonna win anyway and so will the Democratic Senators, Members of House, Governors, Mayors, local government etc - so they will get a SURPLUS of money from all those who might support both sides. Then those who only support Republicans - many will say this year is a lost cause and not give anything. But the Democrats - with the Hillary machine, the Obama machine and at least partly the Bernie machine too - will be totally utterly awash with money. And be able to support the down-ticket races very strongly.

The Democratic candidates will be on the popular populist positions that Hillary has taken, and will have a happy united convention where their message is loudly celebrated, plus contrasted with Trump and gang. Meanwhile the Republican convention will be at least grumbling with discontent, and can even be contested and violent. Many Republicans will openly be against their party platform which Trump will insist upon. So when voters are presented with INCUMBENT Republicans representing Trump's views (or running away from him) and the party platform, and then challenger Democratic new faces promise the sensible populist views of no more gridlock and actual intelligent government... again, it helps the virtuous cycle to boost Democrats, boost Hillary, boost the Senators and House members, boost local government, get more volunteers, get more campaign donations and build a big wave.. As various polls show the Republicans in trouble, some will try to convert or admit they made mistakes or quit running instead of losing - all this helping even more the Democratic cause and bringing ever more splits into the Republican side.

Now one last thought - it seems many in the Republican party now are surrendering to Trump and thinking they should salvage what can be saved and stop fighting against the inevitable.. I would find it bizarre if the Republican party really surrenders to Trump and just lets him take over their party and destroy it. But lets see how that goes, because apparently this last get-together they just had yesterday had participants very despondent and many considering ending the anti-Trump ad campaigns etc (according to Politico). If the anti-Trump resistance ends (or strongly diminishes) then of course Cruz and Kasich will also do far worse in the last months than anyone thought. And again, Trump could clinch his nomination (on June 7). Part of me, out of curiosity, would love to see 'the full Trump' plan, ie have him clinch and then we'd see his VP choice and see how he intends to pivot for the general election kind of 'fully' at the convention etc. Incidentially - as Trump said on Morning Joe - his foreign policy advisor is HIMSELF and he TALKS TO HIMSELF if thats not disqualifying for the man with the finger on the button, I don't know what is. But yeah. I am not so sure there IS a master plan beyond July. He might actually end up picking Chris Christie as his VP haha and that there is no super-smart pivot. That the thug Lewandovski really is the level of his campaign smarts.

Obviously the BIGGER part of me, as an observer REALLY hopes for a contested convention where the first vote won't bring a decision, and we'll see hopefully a day of wild votes and weird moves to try to find a nominee. As we've never lived to see one (most of us too young that is) that would be cool. Far more so, now in the age of 24 hour cable news and Twitter. But then if its Trump, he'll be partnering with Rubio or Kasich as VP and we'll probably never find out who was his mystery 'awesome' VP idea. And a party platform in a contested convention would also be far more a last-minute-compromise than the pure Trumpian 'grand idea' for how to win in the general election (if one exists).

Still.. its the best show on the planet. BTW did you see the dueling Trump ads. The one with Hillary barking like a dog, then Hillary's response has Trump talking to himself.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Oh.. there's more!

Another of my forecasts. I don't think anyone else has written about this angle yet but today Slate has the story that they think a loss by Trump in 2016 will lead to.. a loss by Ted Cruz in 2020. They think that the Republican party is destined to follow the disaster of Trump as nominee now, with yes, Cruz in 2020 (like I have been predicting for months here). And they make a funny analogy. When Lindsay Graham said the choice between Trump and Cruz was whether you wanted to be shot or poisoned - now Slate says, the Republican party will not need to decide - they will get to experience both... And like my analysis has said before many times, only after the madness of the extremist right wing dogma has passed can the Republican party return to winning elections. Earliest the Slate article sees it - like I see it - in 2024. Nice to see yet another of my early visions now starting to find others who also see it that way. I do think that was the first published story to cover that angle. (I'm actually pretty good at this political forecasting racket too, apparently hahah).

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[winter]

It is still more than half a year until the elections. So a lot can happen. It looks like the GOP is heading to a complete meltdown.

My concern is how this meltdown and the associated desperation and anger will spill over. Desperate people could execute desperate actions. Congress cannot start a war to divert attention, but there might be other avenues to derail the elections.

Then there is the buildup of a Trump militia that might form a new KKK organisation. Wasn't there involvement of police forces with Trump gatherings? In Europe, these right wing militia have always attracted some corners of the police and armed forces. And voter intimidation must still be a living memory in many parts of the US.