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March 11, 2016

Comments

neil

@ Earendil
>"I've seen some different statistics (e.g. iOS at 2x what Tomi calculated) quoted by some commenter here”

Hi Earendil, you appear to have missed the fact that this iOS number is for the TOTAL iOS platform which includes iPads and iPod touches. This number is close to 900M active iOS devices based on Apple’s SEC report that there are now over 1 Billion active Apple devices around the world.

If you have any questions about this please feel free to ask me. No need to fling insults and resort to invective.

neil

We've previously compared Apple's report of a Billion active Apple devices and determined that almost 900M of them are iOS devices compared to Google's report of 1.4 Billion active Android devices + approx 25-30% more AOSP Android devices (according to ABI Research) = 1.8 Billion active Android devices worldwide.

That gave us a comparison of 900M active iOS devices being about 50% the size of 1.8Bn Active Android devices.

To deepen this comparison and cross-check, let's look at active USERS instead of active DEVICES.

Apple also announced recently that there are now 782 million active iCloud users, many with multiple Apple devices as most Mac and iPad users also have an iPhone.

Let's generously assume that only half of the 97M Macs sold over the last 5 years went to iCloud users who also owned an iPhone or an iPad or an iPod touch and also quite generously assume that all of those 5 year old Macs are still active and we get about 730M active iCloud users who are also iOS users.

This compares to Google's report that there are 1 Billion active Google Play Store users. Considering that non-Google AOSP device sales represent 25-30% of annual Android device sales, we are probably looking at 1.3 Billion ACTIVE Android USERS worldwide.

So that gives us about 730M active iOS users which is (drum roll), about 56% of the 1.3 Billion active Android users worldwide.

In other words, another example showing that the actual total iOS platform is far larger compared to the total Android platform than that 15% quarterly smartphone unit sales figure would have you believe.

So, any comments or disagreement with this arithmetic? If so please give reasons extrapolated from Apple and Google's Official figures.

Emilia Srikandi

@neil

Numbers fact, numbers lie
Depend on who the master

When theres a smoke, theres a fire
Your defensive move proof theres a peak

Your number awesome
Only if its true
Only if its matter
Only if its nothing to hide

What a waste of others time to read lie
What a waste of my time to read propaganda
What a waste of your time to do nothing but lie
Why? Why your version of truth important?

Apple was great
No one deny it
Their time has passed
You need no deny it

Its only a matter of time
Unless they change
Can they?

neil

@Emilia
Are you saying that Apple lied on their quarterly SEC statement when they reported there are now over 1 Billion active Apple devices and 782M active iCloud users around the world?

Are you also really accusing Google of lying when they said there are only 1.4 Billion active Android device and 1 Billion active Google Play Store users worldwide?

Those are rather strong accusations to level at the only companies on the planet who would actually be able to accurately report those figures.

Earendil Star

So some are saying that the ipads & Co. devices in use are the same number of the iPhone? Despite sales being nowhere near? And that Tomi would count Android tablets but not ipads? Lol. Just bogus.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Neil:

LOL, you suck at math and reading comprehension.

Tim Cook meant, of the 550M iPhone users 40% have upgraded to a 6/6S. That's around 220M users.

Tim Cook also said their active base grew by 25% e.g. went from 440M to 550M active users.

However, I sincerely doubt that the 80M that bought an iPhone 5 in the past year, are actively looking to upgrade it anytime soon. It's good enough for their needs.

So again, even though only 40% are on an iPhone 6 60% of Apples customer base bought a new iPhone within the last 15 months and will hold off on purchase until the iPhone 7. That means, realisticly speaking, that only about 20% will go for the 6S this year (e.g. 110M) and maybe another 15% go for the iPhone 7, depends on the feature/price ratio for it. Throw in 20M-30M new customers, that brings the total to... 222.5M sold this year. And around 80M sold Q4.

I could be wrong, sure, but the math is rather solid. :)

Neil

@Earendil,
It's not "some" people saying there are close to 900M active iOS devices around the world, it is Apple themselves.

In their last quarterly report Apple indicated there are over 1 Billion ACTIVE Apple devices, which includes iPhone, iPad, Mac, iPod touch, Apple TV, and Apple Watch, around the world (and growing at 25% per year).   

Now, Apple has only sold 78 million Macs in the last 4 years and 12 million Apple Watches and probably even fewer AppleTVs in that time.  Even if we assume that ALL of those other devices are still active after 4 years, we are still looking at around 900 million of those 1 Billion active Apple devices being iOS devices (iPhone, iPad and iPod Touch).

Does that make sense?

Paul

@Neil

> Does that make sense?

No. It does not make any sense to just take (randomly?) some numbers and admire them in isolation, without comparing them with something similar from other companies.

Also here we use smartphone worldwide market share as the main yardstick as by this measure Apple is not number one.

neil

@Paul,
>"No. It does not make any sense to just take (randomly?) some numbers and admire them in isolation, without comparing them with something similar from other companies."

You're not paying attention. I have compared Apple's reported installed base DIRECTLY with Google's reported installed base of 1 Billion active Google Play Store users and 1.4Bn active Android devices. I have then also added in ABI Research's data that indicated 25-30% of total Android sales are non-Google AOSP devices to reach that 1.8Bn total.

>"Also here we use smartphone worldwide market share as the main yardstick as by this measure Apple is not number one."

You can't only consider smartphones and then make conclusions like Mr Wertigon does regarding the Network Effects of Android to come to the erroneous conclusion that Android will eventually overwhelm iOS based on that data.

As soon as you start talking Network Effects (a phenomenon whereby a product or service gains additional value as more people use it), you MUST include all devices on each platform or your argument is immediately null and void.

You need to listen to Tomi who says exactly this:
“Its installed base is larger than its unit sales level and iOS adds a good probably 33% to 50% to its reach on the other tech Apple devices also in the wild. So the market potential is massive.”

Listen to Tomi, Paul.

Paul

@Neil

> You're not paying attention. I have compared Apple's reported installed base DIRECTLY

No Neil. You are the one who is not paying attention. I replied ONLY AND ONLY to your last post which does not contain any Google or Android words! See below your last post to which I have replied!

============================================
It's not "some" people saying there are close to 900M active iOS devices around the world, it is Apple themselves.

In their last quarterly report Apple indicated there are over 1 Billion ACTIVE Apple devices, which includes iPhone, iPad, Mac, iPod touch, Apple TV, and Apple Watch, around the world (and growing at 25% per year).

Now, Apple has only sold 78 million Macs in the last 4 years and 12 million Apple Watches and probably even fewer AppleTVs in that time. Even if we assume that ALL of those other devices are still active after 4 years, we are still looking at around 900 million of those 1 Billion active Apple devices being iOS devices (iPhone, iPad and iPod Touch).

Does that make sense?
============================================

>>"Also here we use smartphone worldwide market share as
>> the main yardstick as by this measure Apple is not number one."

> You can't only consider smartphones ...

Yes, I can because it is the main yardstick!

neil

@paul,
Paul, you've been reading the comments on this forum for days now and I have several times posted the comparison with Google's active installed base. Earendil wanted to know the origin of Apple's 900M iOS installed base specifically so I posted that again. Did you really want me to post yet again the numbers for Google?

If you really did miss my earlier posts, then I apologise and trust the numbers above as reported by Sundar Pichai at the last Google I/O conference give you the info you wanted to understand how Apple's active iOS installed base is about 60% the size of Google's Android active installed base and about 50% the size of Google + AOSP Android.

>"Yes, I can because it is the main yardstick!"

No you can't since both you and Mr Wertigon insist on trying to use those numbers to predict Apple's "doom" using the argument of network effects. If you don't include the FULL network of devices in each platform your argument is utterly corrupt.

Paul

@Neil

> Paul, you've been reading the comment..

BUT I have answered very punctually in my last post ONLY AND ONLY to your last post where you didn't mention Google or Android at all.

> >"Yes, I can because it is the main yardstick!"

>No you can't since ...

Yes, Neil I can! Here smartphone market share world wide is the most important measure! Almost all the measures which you use in your posts are from some fantasy world of which we are not interested here.

According to the smartphone martket share worlwide, Apple is losing against Samsung. Samsung is number one ahead of Apple!

neil

@PWE
>”LOL, you suck at math and reading comprehension.
Tim Cook meant, of the 550M iPhone users 40% have upgraded to a 6/6S. That's around 220M users.”

I’m sorry to say Per but that does not make sense. That 550M figure is your figure for the CURRENT number of active iPhones which of course includes all the iPhone 6’s sold since launch. But of course Tim Cook was taking about what percentage of iPhone owners back in Sept 2014 have upgraded to the iPhone 6/6S. Here is the money quote from Tim Cook himself at January’s Earnings Conference call:

Q from analyst: “you've mentioned in recent calls, helpfully, the percent of the base, prior to when the 6 came out, that were now on the larger screen phones. Can you give us an update on what that number is?”

A from Tim Cook: “The number of people who had an iPhone prior to the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus announcements -- and so this was in September of 2014 that have not yet upgraded to a 6, 6 Plus or 6s or 6s Plus is now 60%. So, another way to think about that is 40% have, 60% have not.”

So, considering Apple reported the installed base had grown 25% in the last year, that means that the iPhone installed base 12 months ago would have been 80% of the supposed current 550M (or is it 500M according to Tomi?) iPhones.

Sept 2014 is actually 15 months ago so the active base would have been even smaller, but we don’t know by how much so I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt and just use the reported 25% growth over 12 months instead.

That makes the active installed base of iPhones back in Sept 2014 = 440M (or 400M using Tomi’s figure).

So only 40% or 176M (or 160M) of that installed base back in Sept 2014 has since upgraded to an iPhone 6/6S. That means that out of the 305.7M new iPhones sold in the 15 months since Sept 2014, 130M (or 146M) were new users.

That’s 130M (or 146M if we use Tomi’s installed base figure) who were NEW users. It makes your prediction of “25M-30M” new users this year to be completely ridiculous.

You going to admit you’re wrong for once?

Of course this is all pretty irrelevant anyway in light of Apple’s ~900M active iOS devices and ~730M active iOS users well and truly making your Android “network effects” argument based on a 15% quarterly sale share to be completely null and void.

neil

@paul
>"Yes, Neil I can! Here smartphone market share world wide is the most important measure!"

Sure in your world of simplistic rankings void of any context or actual meaning, yes, Samsung is beating Apple in quarterly smartphone market share.

However, in the real world where we want such numbers to mean something, those figures are irrelevant.

Mr Wertigon certainly wants to make predictions of Apple's doom based on these numbers. So for him, only looking at quarterly smartphone sales for each platform isn't going to tell him what the true size of each platform is for developers, service providers, content providers, e-commerce providers etc.

No, you can only get the true size of the audience on each platform and thus the scale of the Network Effects possible for each platform by considering ALL. ACTIVE. DEVICES. that run those apps, services, content and commerce.

Hence, this is why Apple and Google's figures of total active iOS and Android devices and total active users trumps all other partial stats such as quarterly smartphone sales. The fact that they are figures straight from the horse's mouths rather than guesstimates by other analysts is of course the icing on the cake.

neil

True Wayne.

Once you've established the actual active installed base of each platform, you then need to do demographic and geographic analysis to understand the actual potential of each platform.

That of course is where you realise how much more lucrative each iOS user is compared to each Android user in terms of buying apps, peripherals, accessories, content, goods and services etc.

Only then can you grasp the actual value of each node in each platform to properly estimate to what degree the raw numerical network affects of each platform are amplified.

Certainly quarterly market share figures can help inform these geographical distributions at least.

Huber

iPhone SE released: 4" 2GB RAM, 16GB version starts at $399

http://www.anandtech.com/show/10170/apple-announces-iphone-se

Doesn't seem to be really cheaper, though: Without SD card support, 16GB is not much nowadays, and the 64GB version is $499.

But probably something for iOS fans who like a smaller device. But it surely is not the device to lift Apple's market share to new heights...

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Neil:

Interesting, wait, so what you are telling me is that Apple gained 130M new *users* from Sept 2014 to Dec 2015?

So, that means, of the 300M iPhones sold, 130M were new users?

So that then must mean Apple has a churn of somewhere around 60M users during this same period - there is no way the numbers add up otherwise.

I did not think Apple had that much of a churn but that even supports my theory even more. :) So when Apple does everything right for every user they lose they gain two more.

Seems like Peak iPhone is even closer than I thought. :)

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Huber:

Yeah, 16GB doesn't last you long these days. The price might be just right however. Let's wait and see where this goes, my initial thoughts are "Too little, too late" especially when regarding the competition:

http://www.gsmarena.com/sony_xperia_z5_compact-7535.php

People were asking for a premium 4". Instead they got a mid-range 4". This will probably not help them, but I have underestimated the distortion field before... :)

Earendil Star

Apple's move is -as usual- extremely interesting. Unlike the witless comments coming from many pundits commenting on this blog.
They realized that they needed to do something to maintain or possibly increase market share.
So, behold the iPhone SE.
The striking thing is that -screen size apart- it actually is better than the iPhone 6/6+.
But this is easily explained: soon the iPhone 7 will be out, and the iPhone 6 will be out as well... in the sense of no longer offered. So the iPhone SE can only be read as a phone being launched before the iPhone 7, where the iPhone 6 is now a stop gap until the 7 is released.
Furthermore, Apple is now trying to reduce the sales fluctuations from one iPhone release to the next.
Now, what could go wrong?
First, the looks of the SE are nothing new: just an iPhone 5/5s.
Second: why no 3D touch? Probably too expensive given the price target, but still, a miss.
Third: it risks cannibalizing the iPhone 6, since the specs are better, and the only drawback is the smaller screen.
So, let's see, but very very interesting move by Apple. Tim Cook is no Steve Jobs with his fixations. Once he realizes that some usual behavior risks damaging the farm, old taboos are forgotten: first was the screen size. Now the relatively cheaper model for keeping market share.
Well done. But will it work? We'll discover shortly.

neil

@PWE
>"So that then must mean Apple has a churn of somewhere around 60M users during this same period"

Which is of course not the case considering the iPhone's extremely high retention rate.

>"there is no way the numbers add up otherwise."

What you haven't considered is that your 550M iPhone installed base figure is too low (and that iPhone users hold onto their phones for longer). I confess I've been going along with your assumption of 550M to demonstrate the inaccuracy of your assumptions.

In reality, around 30% of iPhones purchased in the last 15 months were to new users. Back in October 2015, Tim Cook had this to say:

“for customers who purchased an iPhone last quarter and replaced a smartphone, 30 percent of those switched from an Android device,” Cook said.

So, around 90M of the 305.7M iPhones purchased in the last 15 months went to new users (in a model “S” year no less). So much for your “25M-30M” new users this year.

That begs the question: how do we reconcile 90M new users and 40% of old iPhone users upgrading to the iPhone 6/S?
Answer: By starting with a larger installed base of iPhones.

- If we assume an active installed base of 670M iPhones,
- 80% of that gives approx 536M active iPhones in Sept 2014.
- 40% of 536M = 214M of existing iPhone users have upgraded to an iPhone 6/6s.
- 305.7M - 214M = 91M of the 305.7M iPhones sold since Sept 2014 were to new users.

Now I’m not about to say these figures are 100% accurate considering the various uncertainties, but it does point to a higher rather than lower active iPhone installed base more in line with Apple’s report of 1 Billion active devices.

As I say though, it’s a bit of a side issue in light of Apple’s ~900M active iOS devices and ~730M active iOS users being 50-60% the size of the Android active installed base of devices and users.

So Per, still no comment on how these installed base figures completely destroy your "Android Network Effects being the death of Apple's 15% share" argument?

The comments to this entry are closed.

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