Smartphone Wars: Full Year 2015 Final Top 10 by brands, Top 5 by OS, Installed Base Dec 2015, and Q4 data

Its another year done in the smartphone bloodbath. Yet another of the giants of the industry prior to the revolution of the iPhone from 2007, has fallen now out of hte Top 10 (Sony). The remaining players are the two South Koreans who were in the game long before Apple entered. They now face seven Chinese (with more coming). Plus Apple taking the cream from the top. The OS wars settled too last year, finally into a two-OS race, as Windows finally admitted what we all knew, its not viable in the mass market. So lets do the smartphone numbers. I start with the big table that everybody tends to want.

2015 FULL YEAR SMARTPHONE SALES STATISTICS

Rank . Brand . . . . 2015 units . . Share . . 2014 units . . Share . . 2013 units . . Share

1 (1)  . Samsung  . 322.0 M . . . .22.4% . . 314.2 M . . . 24.2% . . .311.4 M . . . 31.5% 
2 (2)  . Apple  . . . . 231.4 M . . . .16.1% . . 192.7 M . . . 14.8% . . 153.4 M . . . 15.5%
3 (4)  . Huawei . . . 108.0 M . . . . 7.5% . . 75.0 M . . . . 5.8% . . . 52.0 M . . . . 5.3%
4 (3) . Lenovo  . . . . 76.3 M . . . . 5.3% . . 95.0 M . . . . 7.3% . . . 46.2 M . . . . 4.7%
5 (5)  . Xiaomi . . . . . 71.0 M . . . . 4.9%. . 61.1 M . . . . .4.7%. . . . - - - - . . .  . . . - - 
6 (6)  . LG  . . . . . . . 59.7 M . . . . .4.2% . . 59.1 M . . . . 4.5% . . . 47.6 M . . . . 4.8%
7 (8) . . ZTE . . . . . .  57.2 M . . . . 4.0% . . 46.1 M . . . . 3.5%  . . 40.0 M . . . . 4.0%
8 (-) . . Oppo . . . . . . 50.0 M . . . . 3.5% . . - - - . . . . . . . - - -  . . . . - - - . . . . . . - - - 
9 (7) . . Coolpad . . . 45.5 M . . . . 3.2% . . 50.4 M. . . . . 3.9% . . .35.3M . . .  . 3.6% 
10 (9) . TCL-Alcatel . 43.5 M . . . . 3.2% . . 41.4 M . . . . .3.2%. . . . - - - - . . .  . . . - - 
Other . . . . . . . . . . 372.7 M . . . 25.9%
TOTAL . . . . . . . .1,437.3 M . . . . . . . . . 1,300.6 M . . . . . . . . . . 990.0 M
Source: TomiAhonen Almanac 2016
This data may be freely used and repeated


So first off, Apple did pick up one point of market share in 2015. I predicted they would continue the four-year market share losing streak. So I was off by a point (in reality, 1.3 points of market share. So sue me haha, pretty darn close I'd say). The big reason why Apple managed to pick up share, was that the smartphone market slowed down strongly in the second half of 2015, the Christmas sales bump was the weakest we've seen since we started to measure the industry. So also obviously the full-year sales fell 63 million units below my predicted 1.5 Billion (forecast off by 4%, still not bad). Thats what happens when the global economy slows and/or the largest market for a given tech (China, smartphones) slows. But not bad. I was obviously correct when some were hyping Xiaomi, that it couldn't repeat its rapid growth outside of China. It was in 5th rank globally in 2014 and that was the rank it held in 2015. Samsung continued safely as the world's largest smartphone maker and the challeger to Apple is Huawei. The one big brand doing less than expected was Lenovo. The one former brand that just stumbled badly, was Sony (now out of the Top 10. ts small silver lining was, that they at least outsold the former Nokia unit, Lumia, now under Microsoft control).

Also who is next bubbling to get into the Top 10? Its not yet the time of the India brands although Micromax, Karbonn and Lava are doing their strong climbs in that rapidly expanding market. The next one just outside the Top 10 is already in the Top 10 on a quarterly basis - Vivo of China. The race this year at the bottom of the table is between Oppo, Coolpad, TCL-Alcatel and Vivo (and other Chinese brands also coming). For those who need last year's stats, that blog is here.

Next lets do the OS table.

2015 FULL YEAR OPERATING SYSTEM MARKET SHARES

Rank . . OS . . . . . . . . .  2015 units . . share . . .2014 units . . share . . 2013 units . . share
1 (1) . .  Android  . . . . 1,168.8 M . . . . 81.3% . . 1,062 M . . . . . 78% . . . 767 M . . . . . 65%
2 (2) . .  iOS . . . . . . . . . 231.4 M . . . . 16.1% . . . 193 M . . . . . 16% . . . 153 M . . . . . 20%
3 (6) . .  Windows Phone . 28.6 M . . . . 2.0% . . . .35 M . . . . . . 3% . . . .  33 M  . . . . . . 3%
4 (3) . .  Blackberry . . . . . . 4.0 M . . . .  0.3% . . . 9.0 M  . . . . . .2% . . . . 23 M . . . . . . 5%
5 (-) . . . Tizen . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 M . . . . . 0.2%
Others  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 M . . . .  0.1%
TOTAL  . . . . . . . . . . . 1,437.3 M . . . . . . . . . . . 1,301 M  . . . . . . .. . . .  990 M
Source: TomiAhonen Almanac 2016
This data may be freely used and repeated

So Android now powers 4 out of every 5 new smartphones sold. Was inevitable. Apple does almost all the rest. Windows Phone was a total bogus OS because it was always sold at a loss, and a quarter of their phones were never even activated. As Firefox and Ubuntu quit the races and Blackberry is transitioning to Android, the only two OS players who are left to give some noise, are Tizen and Sailfish. Tizen does clock in, with sales measured in millions and could see growth if Samsung could be bothered to market more than one phone at any one time, in only a few markets.

Then lets look at the Installed Base:

INSTALLED BASE OF SMARTPHONES BY OPERATING SYSTEM AS OF 31 DECEMBER 2015

Rank . OS Platform . . . . Units . . . Market share  Was 2014
1 . . . . Android . . . . . . . 1,889 M . . . 76 % . . . . . . ( 76 %)  
2 . . . . iOS  . . . . . . . . . . . 497 M . . . 20 % . . . . . . ( 19 %) 
5 . . . . Windows Phone . . 44 M . . . . 2 % . . . . . . (   2 %) 
4 . . . . Blackberry . . . . . .  15 M . . . . 1 % . . . . . . (   2 %) 
Others . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  10 M . . . . 0 %
TOTAL Installed Base . 2,475 M smartphones in use at end of Q4, 2015
Source: TomiAhonen Almanac 2016
This data may be freely used and repeated

 
So thats your worldwide smartphone market right now. 2.5 Billion smartphones are in use worldwide. 1.9 Billion of them use Android OS and 500 million are iPhones. Note that Apple's market share continues to be above their sales market share - because iPhones have a far longer life span, they often are handed down to other family members or sold. While many Android devices are used relatively briefly then replaced. Obviously Windows and Blackberry are dead OS platforms, this is the last year that BB even appears with a whole percentage point (barely, rounding off from 0.6%) and Windows Phone is nearing that same fate, its actual percentage is 1.7% and falling.

Then lets do the horse-race part, the quarterly results for Q4:

BIGGEST SMARTPHONE MANUFACTURERS BY UNIT SALES IN Q4 2015

Rank . . . Manufacturer . Units . . . Market Share . Was Q2 2015 
1 (1) . . . Samsung . . . .  82.4 M . . 20.5% . . . . . . . ( 23.7% ) 
2 (2) . . . Apple  . . . . . . . 74.8 M . . 18.6% . . . . . . . ( 13.5% ) 
3 (3) . . . Huawei  . . . . . . 30.6 M . . . 7.6% . . . . . . . (   7.7% ) 
5 (4) . . . Lenovo .  . . . . . 22.6 M . . . 5.6% . . . . . . . (   5.3% )
4 (5) . . . Xiaomi . . . . . . .18.6 M . . . 4.6% . . . . . . .  (   5.2% )
7 (7) . . . ZTE  . . . . . . . . . 17.0 M . . . 4.2% . . . . . . . (   4.0% )
8 (8) . . . Oppo . . . . . . . . . 16.0 M . . . 4.0% . . . . . . . (   3.5% )
6 (6) . . . LG  . . . . . . . .  . 15.3 M . . . 3.8% . . . . . . . (   4.2% ) 
10 (10) . . TCL/Alcatel . . . 12.4 M . . . 3.1% . . . . . . . (  2.9% ) 
9 (9) . . Vivo . . . . . . . . . . 10.2 M . . . 2.5% . . . . . . . (   3.4% ) 
Others . . . . . . . . . . . . ..102.3 M
TOTAL . . . . . . . . . . ..   402.0 M

Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Analysis 11 March 2016, based on manufacturer and industry data
This table may be freely shared

So there you go. Another year is done. The race is pretty well over. Now the interesting item for 2016 is how will Apple's iPhone Nano do. If priced to sell, it could actually propel Apple into more sales growth. Meanwhile Samsung's warnings of stalled sales could have these two going head-to-head by the end of the year. Theoretically we might see a race for top dog in 2017. But perhaps the more interesting play is Huawei, can it keep growing there at number 3, and rise up to challenge the two.

But as I've warned back in 2014, this race was done and dusted. The exciting dramatic parts of the race are gone. Now its a box-mover's race for the handset brands and Android rules the OS on the most popular consumer gadget ever sold. What kind of level should we see in smartphone sales this year? About 1.6 Billion should be the sales level for the year. So don't let anybody tell you there isn't strong growth in this market, its only that the hypergrowth stage has passed.

Comments

[Paul]

@Rocwurst

> Just because your favourite platform is MIA in this
> huge new market does not discount Apple's amazing dominance.

Samsung is dominating Apple regarding the worldwide smartphone marketshare! Samsung is number one and Apple is number two! Samsung is the winner here while Apple is the loser! Nothing new so please move on!

[neil]

@PWE
So in other words you don't have any evidence to back up your unsubstantiated claims?

You don't seem to be familiar with the tenets of mature conversational discourse. Each side presents their arguments and provides data and references to back up their point of view through a process of argument and counter-argument.

Unfortunately you seem to prefer immature insults and ad hominem attacks instead.

That's quite disappointing.

[neil]

@Paul
"Samsung is dominating Apple regarding the worldwide smartphone marketshare!...Samsung is the winner here while Apple is the loser! Nothing new so please move on!"

Winner of what exactly?

Manufacturer Profits? Nope.
Manufacturer Revenue? Nope.
Developer ecosystem Revenue? Nope.
Music ecosystem revenue? Nope.
Advertiser ecosystem profit? Nope.
Peripheral ecosystem revenue? Nope.
TV Anywhere ecosystem Revenue? Nope.
Business Marketshare (units or revenue)? Nope.
Services revenue? Nope.
Most Malware? Yep, you've got me on that one. ;-)

You don't seem to comprehend that with the Apple Watch, Apple wins not only the unit market share metric over all other manufacturers combined, but also all the metrics that matter by an even vastly larger margin than they do in smartphones.

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

@Neil: Evidence I have - but you're the one deviating from the established truths and all your evidence to the contrary is filled with a bunch of confusing statistics that in no way contradict my claims.

Fact no 1: There is next to zero mainstream interest for the Apple watch.
Fact no 2: The Apple watch is limited to the iPhone market.

These two facts means that the Apple watch will not be the savior that Apple was hoping for. It has to have like, the cure for cancer or time travelling for that to happen. Same thing with the Apple TV - it has no way of competing in the premium space of set-top boxes (e.g. consoles, Nintendo/Sony/Microsoft). Right now it's not even a premium device.

You won't accept this, that's fine, but the truth is staring you right in the face and you will eventually be forced to accept reality. :)

[neil]

@PWE
>"The Apple watch is limited to the iPhone market."

Apple has an active installed base of 1 Billion active devices worldwide, 900 million of which are iOS devices and well over half a Billion of which are iPhones.

With Apple's 1-Billion strong active installed base growing 25% in the last year, this audience is only getting bigger and bigger.

Apple doesn't need the "rest of the World" to buy the Apple Watch for it to be a roaring success.

Also, I think you're getting confused by the disappointing 15.2% of the smartwatch market captured by Android Wear. You're forgetting that 38.7% of the smartwatch market is made up of non-Apple watches, it's just that most of those are also non-Android, like Tizen, Pebble etc.

>"There is next to zero mainstream interest for the Apple watch."

I think what you meant to say is there is next to zero mainstream interest in Android Wear.

>"Apple TV - it has no way of competing in the premium space of set-top boxes (e.g. consoles, Nintendo/Sony/Microsoft). Right now it's not even a premium device."

Doesn't need to be. The Nintendo Wii certainly wasn't a "premium device" and yet brought in a completely new casual demographic to console gaming. The Apple TV is already dominating the xbox and the PS4 in the TV Anywhere (paid steaming) space and with its new open tvOS app platform and swelling app catalog looks set to follow down the iPhone's well-trodden path to app ecosystem dominance.

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

@Neil:

"Apple has an active installed base of 1 Billion active devices worldwide, 900 million of which are iOS devices and well over half a Billion of which are iPhones."

Apple has a limit of around 550M potential iPhone users. We've already numerous times told you that your numbers are off and why they are off. Repeating a lie does not make it true. That 1B number is irrelevant and as long as the Watch is dependent on the iPhone it cannot become a driving force for Apple. At most it can become an interesting side profit but it will be entirerly dependent on the success and fall of iPhone.

"Also, I think you're getting confused by the disappointing 15.2% of the smartwatch market captured by Android Wear. You're forgetting that 38.7% of the smartwatch market is made up of non-Apple watches, it's just that most of those are also non-Android, like Tizen, Pebble etc."

Those percentages mean nothing. That the Apple watch sold 10M faster than any other Apple product means very little. How much do you see the mainstream care about the Apple watch? Or smartwatches in general, for that matter?

No, this is a fad that like any other fashion fad will fizzle out soon. The only reason Apple watch is doing as well as it does is because of the loyal Apple customer base trusting Apple to make their watch great.

When the Apple watch sells 100M I will concede defeat. Not before then.

As for Apple TV, you're blinded by the US market, rest isn't half as rosy...

[Paul]

@Rockurst

>> Samsung is dominating Apple regarding the worldwide
>> smartphone marketshare!...Samsung is the winner here
>> while Apple is the loser! Nothing new so please move on!"

> Winner of what exactly?

I suggest very gently to read what I wrote above. There is very clearly written that Samsung is the winner due to being the number one (a.k.a numero uno) as worldwide smartphone market share.

[Paul]

@Rockwurst

> You don't seem to comprehend that with the
> Apple Watch, Apple wins not only the unit market
> share metric over all other manufacturers
> combined, but also all the metrics that
> matter by an even vastly larger margin than they do in smartphones.

This is not about comprehension. This is about FACTS. Samsung is number one as smartphone market share world wide! Therefore Samsung is the winner and Apple is the loser. Comprendo?

[Paul]

@Lullz

> Everyone but number one is a loser? Really?

I didn't write that? Where did I write that "everyone but number one is loser". You are generalizing what I wrote in my post. Please, do not do that!
In my previous post I was comparing ONLY AND ONLY Samsung versus Apple. When on compares ONLY AND ONLY Samsung versus Apple then indeed Samsung is the winner and Apple is the loser because Samsung has the largest smartphone market share world wide.

[Paul]

@Lullz

> I didn't claim you said that.

I did NOT claim that. You put words into my mouth! Please, show me where I used the word "everyone" in my statement? If you cannot then you are wrong.

> So, when comparing Apple to Nokia Apple is the winner and Nokia is the loser, right?

Nokia does not make/sell any phones as today March 17, 2016 whilst Apple is doing that. Therefore here is nothing to compare as of today.

[neil]

“Apple has a limit of around 550M potential iPhone users. We've already numerous times told you that your numbers are off and why they are off.”

You do realise your figure of 550M actually agrees with my statement of “well over half a Billion iPhones”? So not sure what you have disproved? Frankly whether there are 550M or 650M active iPhones out there is irrelevant in light of the fact that over half a billion active iPhones owned by the most lucrative demographic in the World represent a HUGE potential market for the Apple Watch.

“as long as the Watch is dependent on the iPhone it cannot become a driving force for Apple”

It doesn’t have to be because it is just another leg to the Apple ecosystem that together is greater than the sum of its individual parts.

“How much do you see the mainstream care about the Apple watch? Or smartwatches in general, for that matter?”

Smartwatches are already bigger than the entire Swiss Watch industry after just 3 quarters so for a brand new form factor I’d say it’s off to a roaring start, unless you’re going to claim next that wrist watches are not mainstream! :-)

“When the Apple watch sells 100M I will concede defeat. Not before then.”

Heh, only an Apple hater would state a company would have to sell 50 Billion dollars worth of a product for it to be considered a success!

[neil]

@Paul
"There is very clearly written that Samsung is the winner due to being the number one (a.k.a numero uno) as worldwide smartphone market share."

That's as meaningless as those annoying people who claim to be winners by being the "FIRST" comment on an article.

Why? Because market share is merely a means to an end, not an end in itself and unless it delivers tangible rewards to the manufacturer or the ecosystem (in the metrics that matter like OEM profit, developer revenue, ad revenue, e-commerce revenue, media revenue, services revenue etc), it is irrelevant to either Samsung or Apple.

However, we were talking about smart watches and how Apple on 61.3% market share utterly dominates Android Wear on 15.2% meaning that in this case Apple also dominates numerically.

If Apple manages a 93% share of the profits of the entire smartphone industry with only a 16.1% market share, can you imagine the profit share that the $500 ASP Apple Watch must be generating with 61.3% market share? It boggles the mind.

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

@neil:

It's irrelevant if smartwatches beat regular watches. I asked, what excitement can you see in the mainstream for smartwatches? Answer: more or less none. There is however a lot of excitement for the iPhone still - but it's on the way out.

And that's precisely the reason why the Apple Watch is not the thing that will "save" Apple long-term. :)

[Huber]

Samsung seems to have locked the bootloader of the US S7 version:

http://www.xda-developers.com/unlikeliest-of-heroes-john-legere-working-to-free-the-s7/

It really gets worse for the consumers, and funnily most people don't seem to care. At least the CEO of T-mobile takes measures to fix this.

The list of devices one can recommend gets shorter and shorter. Let's see what LG does with the G5, until now no statement has been released by the company.

If this continues, there will be only Nexus and Sony left.

[Neil]

@PWE
>"what excitement can you see in the mainstream for smartwatches? Answer: more or less none"

According to IBM:
"The No. 1 most-talked about gift this holiday season, according to IBM Watson Trend is the Apple Watch pinning the scale at 100 nearly every day since Aug. 8."

Here's how IBM describes Watson Trend:

“Each day, Watson Trend scours the internet—social networks, blogs, forums, comments, ratings, reviews—looking for conversations related to purchase decisions. We look for conversations from those who are about to make a purchase, people who are conversing as they make a purchase, and conversations after a purchase decision. As we identify these conversations, we use Watson to understand the context, meaning and sentiment or tone of the conversation. If someone is talking about a new smartphone they have purchased, we understand if they are happy with that purchase, what features they liked, where they bought it, etc.”

So much for there being no excitement for smartwatches eh Per?

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

@Neil, @Wayne:

The sales numbers are not because of the Apple Watch product but due to Apple, the brand, and it's loyal customers.

The Apple watch does not in any way provide any benefits over a smartphone, and will not be able to sustain Apple. Apple now must find the next big thing before their market share slips below 10%. The watch is not it. It may be a profitable income but it will not be a leg to stand on, not now, not ever.

And that has, all along, been my point.

As for Watson - only tracking the US market right? Well did you know the US is only a tiny part of the global market? Here in Europe, the Apple watch is a big yawn at best...

[Paul]

@Rockwurst

>>"There is very clearly written that Samsung is the winner due to being
>>the number one (a.k.a numero uno) as worldwide smartphone market share."

>That's as meaningless ...

YOU ARE TROLLING!

Let me remind you that the title of the Tomi's post is "Smartphone Wars: Full Year 2015 Final Top 10 by brands, Top 5 by OS, Installed Base Dec 2015, and Q4 data" and it is mainly about smartphone worlwide market share. Here is another quote from Tomi's post where you wrote comments:
=========================
2015 FULL YEAR SMARTPHONE SALES STATISTICS

Rank . Brand . . . . 2015 units . . Share . . 2014 units . . Share . . 2013 units . . Share

1 (1) . Samsung . 322.0 M . . . .22.4% . . 314.2 M . . . 24.2% . . .311.4 M . . . 31.5%
2 (2) . Apple . . . . 231.4 M . . . .16.1% . . 192.7 M . . . 14.8% . . 153.4 M . . . 15.5%
===============================

Therefore "worldwide smartphone market share" is not meaningless!

"Worldwide smartphone market share" is the main measure here!

So Samsung is the winner due to being the number one (a.k.a NUMERO UNO) as worldwide smartphone market share and Apple is the loser in Samsung versus Apple comparison.

[oibur]

@wayne

> Apple is closer to being number 1 than number three.

I compared Samsung versus Apple and in this comparison using the smartphone worldwide market share one has that Samsung wins and Apple is the LOSER!

> Name the industries with 2 billion customers a year. And of them, how many got there in 9 months.

This is very lame measure to measure something in any industry. This is not the main stream way to measure something in an industry. This is one time use measure which is used to confuse people.

[neil]

@PWE
“As for Watson - only tracking the US market right?”

Wrong. IBM Watson Trends is global.

Let’s look at Google Trends for another perspective. Guess what, last Christmas, Google Trends also reports the Apple Watch outscored the iPhone with scores of 70 to 55 respectively WORLDWIDE.

“Here in Europe, the Apple watch is a big yawn at best”

So, wrong again.

[neil]

@PWE:
"And that's precisely the reason why the Apple Watch is not the thing that will "save" Apple long-term."

That is the silliest thing I've seen written in a long time. As if Apple, the most successful company in the world needs "saving".

Now take any Android manufacturer stumbling along haemorrhaging millions of dollars a year and scratching to survive and yep, there's plenty of companies right there that are in desperate need of saving in the short-term, let alone the long-term.

You seem to have this strange doom fixation on completely the wrong target Per.