Smartphone Wars: Full Year 2015 Final Top 10 by brands, Top 5 by OS, Installed Base Dec 2015, and Q4 data

Its another year done in the smartphone bloodbath. Yet another of the giants of the industry prior to the revolution of the iPhone from 2007, has fallen now out of hte Top 10 (Sony). The remaining players are the two South Koreans who were in the game long before Apple entered. They now face seven Chinese (with more coming). Plus Apple taking the cream from the top. The OS wars settled too last year, finally into a two-OS race, as Windows finally admitted what we all knew, its not viable in the mass market. So lets do the smartphone numbers. I start with the big table that everybody tends to want.

2015 FULL YEAR SMARTPHONE SALES STATISTICS

Rank . Brand . . . . 2015 units . . Share . . 2014 units . . Share . . 2013 units . . Share

1 (1)  . Samsung  . 322.0 M . . . .22.4% . . 314.2 M . . . 24.2% . . .311.4 M . . . 31.5% 
2 (2)  . Apple  . . . . 231.4 M . . . .16.1% . . 192.7 M . . . 14.8% . . 153.4 M . . . 15.5%
3 (4)  . Huawei . . . 108.0 M . . . . 7.5% . . 75.0 M . . . . 5.8% . . . 52.0 M . . . . 5.3%
4 (3) . Lenovo  . . . . 76.3 M . . . . 5.3% . . 95.0 M . . . . 7.3% . . . 46.2 M . . . . 4.7%
5 (5)  . Xiaomi . . . . . 71.0 M . . . . 4.9%. . 61.1 M . . . . .4.7%. . . . - - - - . . .  . . . - - 
6 (6)  . LG  . . . . . . . 59.7 M . . . . .4.2% . . 59.1 M . . . . 4.5% . . . 47.6 M . . . . 4.8%
7 (8) . . ZTE . . . . . .  57.2 M . . . . 4.0% . . 46.1 M . . . . 3.5%  . . 40.0 M . . . . 4.0%
8 (-) . . Oppo . . . . . . 50.0 M . . . . 3.5% . . - - - . . . . . . . - - -  . . . . - - - . . . . . . - - - 
9 (7) . . Coolpad . . . 45.5 M . . . . 3.2% . . 50.4 M. . . . . 3.9% . . .35.3M . . .  . 3.6% 
10 (9) . TCL-Alcatel . 43.5 M . . . . 3.2% . . 41.4 M . . . . .3.2%. . . . - - - - . . .  . . . - - 
Other . . . . . . . . . . 372.7 M . . . 25.9%
TOTAL . . . . . . . .1,437.3 M . . . . . . . . . 1,300.6 M . . . . . . . . . . 990.0 M
Source: TomiAhonen Almanac 2016
This data may be freely used and repeated


So first off, Apple did pick up one point of market share in 2015. I predicted they would continue the four-year market share losing streak. So I was off by a point (in reality, 1.3 points of market share. So sue me haha, pretty darn close I'd say). The big reason why Apple managed to pick up share, was that the smartphone market slowed down strongly in the second half of 2015, the Christmas sales bump was the weakest we've seen since we started to measure the industry. So also obviously the full-year sales fell 63 million units below my predicted 1.5 Billion (forecast off by 4%, still not bad). Thats what happens when the global economy slows and/or the largest market for a given tech (China, smartphones) slows. But not bad. I was obviously correct when some were hyping Xiaomi, that it couldn't repeat its rapid growth outside of China. It was in 5th rank globally in 2014 and that was the rank it held in 2015. Samsung continued safely as the world's largest smartphone maker and the challeger to Apple is Huawei. The one big brand doing less than expected was Lenovo. The one former brand that just stumbled badly, was Sony (now out of the Top 10. ts small silver lining was, that they at least outsold the former Nokia unit, Lumia, now under Microsoft control).

Also who is next bubbling to get into the Top 10? Its not yet the time of the India brands although Micromax, Karbonn and Lava are doing their strong climbs in that rapidly expanding market. The next one just outside the Top 10 is already in the Top 10 on a quarterly basis - Vivo of China. The race this year at the bottom of the table is between Oppo, Coolpad, TCL-Alcatel and Vivo (and other Chinese brands also coming). For those who need last year's stats, that blog is here.

Next lets do the OS table.

2015 FULL YEAR OPERATING SYSTEM MARKET SHARES

Rank . . OS . . . . . . . . .  2015 units . . share . . .2014 units . . share . . 2013 units . . share
1 (1) . .  Android  . . . . 1,168.8 M . . . . 81.3% . . 1,062 M . . . . . 78% . . . 767 M . . . . . 65%
2 (2) . .  iOS . . . . . . . . . 231.4 M . . . . 16.1% . . . 193 M . . . . . 16% . . . 153 M . . . . . 20%
3 (6) . .  Windows Phone . 28.6 M . . . . 2.0% . . . .35 M . . . . . . 3% . . . .  33 M  . . . . . . 3%
4 (3) . .  Blackberry . . . . . . 4.0 M . . . .  0.3% . . . 9.0 M  . . . . . .2% . . . . 23 M . . . . . . 5%
5 (-) . . . Tizen . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 M . . . . . 0.2%
Others  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 M . . . .  0.1%
TOTAL  . . . . . . . . . . . 1,437.3 M . . . . . . . . . . . 1,301 M  . . . . . . .. . . .  990 M
Source: TomiAhonen Almanac 2016
This data may be freely used and repeated

So Android now powers 4 out of every 5 new smartphones sold. Was inevitable. Apple does almost all the rest. Windows Phone was a total bogus OS because it was always sold at a loss, and a quarter of their phones were never even activated. As Firefox and Ubuntu quit the races and Blackberry is transitioning to Android, the only two OS players who are left to give some noise, are Tizen and Sailfish. Tizen does clock in, with sales measured in millions and could see growth if Samsung could be bothered to market more than one phone at any one time, in only a few markets.

Then lets look at the Installed Base:

INSTALLED BASE OF SMARTPHONES BY OPERATING SYSTEM AS OF 31 DECEMBER 2015

Rank . OS Platform . . . . Units . . . Market share  Was 2014
1 . . . . Android . . . . . . . 1,889 M . . . 76 % . . . . . . ( 76 %)  
2 . . . . iOS  . . . . . . . . . . . 497 M . . . 20 % . . . . . . ( 19 %) 
5 . . . . Windows Phone . . 44 M . . . . 2 % . . . . . . (   2 %) 
4 . . . . Blackberry . . . . . .  15 M . . . . 1 % . . . . . . (   2 %) 
Others . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  10 M . . . . 0 %
TOTAL Installed Base . 2,475 M smartphones in use at end of Q4, 2015
Source: TomiAhonen Almanac 2016
This data may be freely used and repeated

 
So thats your worldwide smartphone market right now. 2.5 Billion smartphones are in use worldwide. 1.9 Billion of them use Android OS and 500 million are iPhones. Note that Apple's market share continues to be above their sales market share - because iPhones have a far longer life span, they often are handed down to other family members or sold. While many Android devices are used relatively briefly then replaced. Obviously Windows and Blackberry are dead OS platforms, this is the last year that BB even appears with a whole percentage point (barely, rounding off from 0.6%) and Windows Phone is nearing that same fate, its actual percentage is 1.7% and falling.

Then lets do the horse-race part, the quarterly results for Q4:

BIGGEST SMARTPHONE MANUFACTURERS BY UNIT SALES IN Q4 2015

Rank . . . Manufacturer . Units . . . Market Share . Was Q2 2015 
1 (1) . . . Samsung . . . .  82.4 M . . 20.5% . . . . . . . ( 23.7% ) 
2 (2) . . . Apple  . . . . . . . 74.8 M . . 18.6% . . . . . . . ( 13.5% ) 
3 (3) . . . Huawei  . . . . . . 30.6 M . . . 7.6% . . . . . . . (   7.7% ) 
5 (4) . . . Lenovo .  . . . . . 22.6 M . . . 5.6% . . . . . . . (   5.3% )
4 (5) . . . Xiaomi . . . . . . .18.6 M . . . 4.6% . . . . . . .  (   5.2% )
7 (7) . . . ZTE  . . . . . . . . . 17.0 M . . . 4.2% . . . . . . . (   4.0% )
8 (8) . . . Oppo . . . . . . . . . 16.0 M . . . 4.0% . . . . . . . (   3.5% )
6 (6) . . . LG  . . . . . . . .  . 15.3 M . . . 3.8% . . . . . . . (   4.2% ) 
10 (10) . . TCL/Alcatel . . . 12.4 M . . . 3.1% . . . . . . . (  2.9% ) 
9 (9) . . Vivo . . . . . . . . . . 10.2 M . . . 2.5% . . . . . . . (   3.4% ) 
Others . . . . . . . . . . . . ..102.3 M
TOTAL . . . . . . . . . . ..   402.0 M

Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Analysis 11 March 2016, based on manufacturer and industry data
This table may be freely shared

So there you go. Another year is done. The race is pretty well over. Now the interesting item for 2016 is how will Apple's iPhone Nano do. If priced to sell, it could actually propel Apple into more sales growth. Meanwhile Samsung's warnings of stalled sales could have these two going head-to-head by the end of the year. Theoretically we might see a race for top dog in 2017. But perhaps the more interesting play is Huawei, can it keep growing there at number 3, and rise up to challenge the two.

But as I've warned back in 2014, this race was done and dusted. The exciting dramatic parts of the race are gone. Now its a box-mover's race for the handset brands and Android rules the OS on the most popular consumer gadget ever sold. What kind of level should we see in smartphone sales this year? About 1.6 Billion should be the sales level for the year. So don't let anybody tell you there isn't strong growth in this market, its only that the hypergrowth stage has passed.

Comments

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi everybody

Just posted my iPhone 5SE review. Spoiler alert: perfection in what Apple needed. Market share this year? Expect 18%

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Roy Liu]

Tomi,

Love your work, but your spin just can't cover the obvious. You stated that Apple was in decline. By your own numbers it is NOT. It GAINED market share both in units and in OS penetration. Samsung DECLINED. These are statements of fact derived from your own posted numbers.

[Paul]

@Roy

...and Samsung is number one as smartphone market share world wide and Apple is not number one but number two waaaaayyyyyy behind Samsung.