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March 11, 2016



Good numbers!

If I would be Google I would start to be really worried by the rise of no-Google-services-and-apps-in-home-market phone manufacturers, a.k.a. Chinese phone manufacturers which sells in China Android smart phones by default without Google services/apps, which now have worldwide a combined smartphones market share in 2015 of ~32%. From this point of view, actually, now the best ally of Google is Samsung.
When no-Google-services-and-apps-in-home-market phone manufacturers will start to achieve a critical mass in world wide market share (e.g. ~50%?) they might start slowly to "convert" other markets/countries (e.g. India?) to no-Google-services-and-apps-by-default on Android phones.

Android has a bright future it is just the the Google-apps-and-services might end up not being the default ones on a very long term.


To complete the picture, I have estimated the forth quarter OS numbers using Tomi's earlier numbers.

1 Android . . . . . 323.5 M . . . . 80.5%
2 iOS . . . . . . . . . . 74.8 M . . . . 18.6%
3 Windows Phone . 3.7 M . . . . . 0.9%
TOTAL . . . . . . . . 402.0 M

1 Android . . . . . 288.4 M . . . . 76.4%
2 iOS . . . . . . . . . . 74.5 M . . . . 19.7%
3 Windows Phone . 11.2 M . . . . .3.0%
TOTAL . . . . . . . . . 377.4 M


@Paul - I believe that those will not do anything to upset Google too much - for now. So for the "west" they will offer Google Android, developing world is other story as you pointed out. As the developed world is much bigger numbers, I agree that long term this is big threat to Google.



> I believe that those will not do anything to upset Google too much - for now.

Exactly, "for now". For now, they are building momentum by playing by the rules ...

> So for the "west" they will offer Google Android,

I agree.

> developing world is other story as you pointed out.
> As the developed world is much bigger numbers,
> I agree that long term this is big threat to Google.

I agree.

For Nokia always the USA has been the weak (and blind?) spot and exactly from there came the biggest existential threat to them (which started a tsunami which basically killed Nokia phones).
For Google it looks like the weak spot (and blind?) spot is China (from point of view of Google-apps-and-services-by-default on Android).


Why do you say that Ubuntu quit the race? Okay, Canonical's partners sell these phones only in homeopathic doses, but I haven't heard yet that Mr. Shuttleworth threw in the towel ...


So BBK (parent Co. of Oppo, Vivo and OnePlus and maybe others) with their multi-level global marketing strategy, it must be working for them, but is it sustainable. Will the bottom 10 out of the top 15 be for ever swapping places. Will this year be iPhones worse nightmare.

abdul muis

Is there anyone here think that last year Snapdragon 810 fiasco have to do with weak sales of android, and this year will be different?


The sums in your second table "2015 FULL YEAR OPERATING SYSTEM MARKET SHARES" seem to be misaligned: The 2014 value is in the 2015 column, and I don't know what is going on with the remaining totals, but they don't add up.


In addition to Michael's question, why the total number of phones sold in the OEM table is different than the number of phones sold in the OS table? Did they sell phones without an OS?


OK, sorry, the total number has been fixed.


What will be interesting to me is how Apple prices the new iPhone that it is releasing on the 21st. Everyone seems to be expecting a $450 phone to replace the iPhone 5S, but I think the so-called iPhone SE will be $549 at launch, and that Tomi will be giving another one of his "what were they thinking?" rants about how they are missing an opportunity to grow the market share.

The iPhone SE supposedly has an A9. While it (probably) lacks 3D Touch, at $450 it might draw too many sales away from the iPhone 6S. Will people really view the larger screen and 3D Touch as worth an extra $200? Maybe they'll split the difference and price it at $499 for the 16GB and $599 for the 64GB version. That way they can still offer the iPhone 5S (still at an official MSRP of $450 but with authorized incentives) until September when they quietly discontinue it with the launch of the new iPhone (which may or may not be called the iPhone 7).


Apple is like Trump. Never underestimate the idiocy of the iSheep. They will always buy Apple, no matter how much Apple charges them for inferior devices. Apple can abuse their users in any possible way and the users will ask for more abuse.


Actually Google is obliged to publish AOSP. For one more year, at least.

That was the "concession" Chinese government demanded when they approved sale or Motorola to Google.

Well... it looks like Chinese government understood the problem but not the scope.

I doubt all these non-Google manufacturers would be ready to pick up the gantlet in a year if Google would decide that it does not want to play AOSP game by then.


Quote: "But it's not that Apple customers are like Trump's that Apple Haters are like Trump Haters."
The fact that Apple Haters are like Trump Haters doesn't mean that Apple customers aren't like Trump voters. And I agree that Apple Haters are like Trump Haters in the sense that they both have valid, objective reasons to hate Apple.


and/or Trump


"Off by 1.3 points of market share" about Apple? Let me quote yourself to you:

"next year powered mostly by this model range, the iPhone market share continues to fall to something near 12%."

That's your own iPhone 6 review.


I didn't say that Apple customers are idiots. Most of them are not. I said that buying iPhones is idiotic, which is true. If you ask a typical iPhone owner why he chose an iPhone in most cases they won't be able to give you a single reason why they bought an iPhone (apart from the fact that they want to be cool, or that Steve Jobs is Jesus, or that they want to look like they are richer than they really are - all these are idiotic reasons)

Per "wertigon" Ekström

I do agree that Apple had an absolutely stunning great year in 2015.

I'm not convinced their future is too bright, however. I still believe their best chances of succeeding in the future is to make another iPhone-esque product, that is, a product that enters a new market and shows what everyone else should've done all along. Except this time the hunt should not be for profits, but for market share.

The watch is not it - it's an expensive toy for iPhone users. Nothing more. It will survive as long as there is hype, but like Sarah Palin there is no substance.

The TV is not it, either - Sony and Microsoft both have a vastly superior offering, and would have no problem expanding on a TV platform, with a more open strategy than Apple can hope to match.

The car might be it - but again there are dark clouds on the horizon.

In mobile, Apple is stuck between a rock and a hard place - The premium segment is won and will rapidly shrink the coming years, to maybe say 200-230M units or even less. If Apple keeps dominating then the premium segment will decline even further to the point of maybe 100M a year (since being stuck with a premium differing platform will not help them when the other 90% are using Android).

Meanwhile, Apple is known as *the* quality product company that never compromises with quality - so it cannot release cheaper versions of it's phone, either. Because that would mean they actually *do* compromise with quality. That phone will also eat up their profits like hotcakes.

So, Apple will do what every american company worth their salt will do - kick that can down the street to appease the shareholders, what else? :)


How did Trump get into a smartphone thread?


@Catriona It's my fault. Trump is everywhere :-)

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