Smartphone Wars: Full Year 2015 Final Top 10 by brands, Top 5 by OS, Installed Base Dec 2015, and Q4 data

Its another year done in the smartphone bloodbath. Yet another of the giants of the industry prior to the revolution of the iPhone from 2007, has fallen now out of hte Top 10 (Sony). The remaining players are the two South Koreans who were in the game long before Apple entered. They now face seven Chinese (with more coming). Plus Apple taking the cream from the top. The OS wars settled too last year, finally into a two-OS race, as Windows finally admitted what we all knew, its not viable in the mass market. So lets do the smartphone numbers. I start with the big table that everybody tends to want.

2015 FULL YEAR SMARTPHONE SALES STATISTICS

Rank . Brand . . . . 2015 units . . Share . . 2014 units . . Share . . 2013 units . . Share

1 (1)  . Samsung  . 322.0 M . . . .22.4% . . 314.2 M . . . 24.2% . . .311.4 M . . . 31.5% 
2 (2)  . Apple  . . . . 231.4 M . . . .16.1% . . 192.7 M . . . 14.8% . . 153.4 M . . . 15.5%
3 (4)  . Huawei . . . 108.0 M . . . . 7.5% . . 75.0 M . . . . 5.8% . . . 52.0 M . . . . 5.3%
4 (3) . Lenovo  . . . . 76.3 M . . . . 5.3% . . 95.0 M . . . . 7.3% . . . 46.2 M . . . . 4.7%
5 (5)  . Xiaomi . . . . . 71.0 M . . . . 4.9%. . 61.1 M . . . . .4.7%. . . . - - - - . . .  . . . - - 
6 (6)  . LG  . . . . . . . 59.7 M . . . . .4.2% . . 59.1 M . . . . 4.5% . . . 47.6 M . . . . 4.8%
7 (8) . . ZTE . . . . . .  57.2 M . . . . 4.0% . . 46.1 M . . . . 3.5%  . . 40.0 M . . . . 4.0%
8 (-) . . Oppo . . . . . . 50.0 M . . . . 3.5% . . - - - . . . . . . . - - -  . . . . - - - . . . . . . - - - 
9 (7) . . Coolpad . . . 45.5 M . . . . 3.2% . . 50.4 M. . . . . 3.9% . . .35.3M . . .  . 3.6% 
10 (9) . TCL-Alcatel . 43.5 M . . . . 3.2% . . 41.4 M . . . . .3.2%. . . . - - - - . . .  . . . - - 
Other . . . . . . . . . . 372.7 M . . . 25.9%
TOTAL . . . . . . . .1,437.3 M . . . . . . . . . 1,300.6 M . . . . . . . . . . 990.0 M
Source: TomiAhonen Almanac 2016
This data may be freely used and repeated


So first off, Apple did pick up one point of market share in 2015. I predicted they would continue the four-year market share losing streak. So I was off by a point (in reality, 1.3 points of market share. So sue me haha, pretty darn close I'd say). The big reason why Apple managed to pick up share, was that the smartphone market slowed down strongly in the second half of 2015, the Christmas sales bump was the weakest we've seen since we started to measure the industry. So also obviously the full-year sales fell 63 million units below my predicted 1.5 Billion (forecast off by 4%, still not bad). Thats what happens when the global economy slows and/or the largest market for a given tech (China, smartphones) slows. But not bad. I was obviously correct when some were hyping Xiaomi, that it couldn't repeat its rapid growth outside of China. It was in 5th rank globally in 2014 and that was the rank it held in 2015. Samsung continued safely as the world's largest smartphone maker and the challeger to Apple is Huawei. The one big brand doing less than expected was Lenovo. The one former brand that just stumbled badly, was Sony (now out of the Top 10. ts small silver lining was, that they at least outsold the former Nokia unit, Lumia, now under Microsoft control).

Also who is next bubbling to get into the Top 10? Its not yet the time of the India brands although Micromax, Karbonn and Lava are doing their strong climbs in that rapidly expanding market. The next one just outside the Top 10 is already in the Top 10 on a quarterly basis - Vivo of China. The race this year at the bottom of the table is between Oppo, Coolpad, TCL-Alcatel and Vivo (and other Chinese brands also coming). For those who need last year's stats, that blog is here.

Next lets do the OS table.

2015 FULL YEAR OPERATING SYSTEM MARKET SHARES

Rank . . OS . . . . . . . . .  2015 units . . share . . .2014 units . . share . . 2013 units . . share
1 (1) . .  Android  . . . . 1,168.8 M . . . . 81.3% . . 1,062 M . . . . . 78% . . . 767 M . . . . . 65%
2 (2) . .  iOS . . . . . . . . . 231.4 M . . . . 16.1% . . . 193 M . . . . . 16% . . . 153 M . . . . . 20%
3 (6) . .  Windows Phone . 28.6 M . . . . 2.0% . . . .35 M . . . . . . 3% . . . .  33 M  . . . . . . 3%
4 (3) . .  Blackberry . . . . . . 4.0 M . . . .  0.3% . . . 9.0 M  . . . . . .2% . . . . 23 M . . . . . . 5%
5 (-) . . . Tizen . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 M . . . . . 0.2%
Others  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 M . . . .  0.1%
TOTAL  . . . . . . . . . . . 1,437.3 M . . . . . . . . . . . 1,301 M  . . . . . . .. . . .  990 M
Source: TomiAhonen Almanac 2016
This data may be freely used and repeated

So Android now powers 4 out of every 5 new smartphones sold. Was inevitable. Apple does almost all the rest. Windows Phone was a total bogus OS because it was always sold at a loss, and a quarter of their phones were never even activated. As Firefox and Ubuntu quit the races and Blackberry is transitioning to Android, the only two OS players who are left to give some noise, are Tizen and Sailfish. Tizen does clock in, with sales measured in millions and could see growth if Samsung could be bothered to market more than one phone at any one time, in only a few markets.

Then lets look at the Installed Base:

INSTALLED BASE OF SMARTPHONES BY OPERATING SYSTEM AS OF 31 DECEMBER 2015

Rank . OS Platform . . . . Units . . . Market share  Was 2014
1 . . . . Android . . . . . . . 1,889 M . . . 76 % . . . . . . ( 76 %)  
2 . . . . iOS  . . . . . . . . . . . 497 M . . . 20 % . . . . . . ( 19 %) 
5 . . . . Windows Phone . . 44 M . . . . 2 % . . . . . . (   2 %) 
4 . . . . Blackberry . . . . . .  15 M . . . . 1 % . . . . . . (   2 %) 
Others . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  10 M . . . . 0 %
TOTAL Installed Base . 2,475 M smartphones in use at end of Q4, 2015
Source: TomiAhonen Almanac 2016
This data may be freely used and repeated

 
So thats your worldwide smartphone market right now. 2.5 Billion smartphones are in use worldwide. 1.9 Billion of them use Android OS and 500 million are iPhones. Note that Apple's market share continues to be above their sales market share - because iPhones have a far longer life span, they often are handed down to other family members or sold. While many Android devices are used relatively briefly then replaced. Obviously Windows and Blackberry are dead OS platforms, this is the last year that BB even appears with a whole percentage point (barely, rounding off from 0.6%) and Windows Phone is nearing that same fate, its actual percentage is 1.7% and falling.

Then lets do the horse-race part, the quarterly results for Q4:

BIGGEST SMARTPHONE MANUFACTURERS BY UNIT SALES IN Q4 2015

Rank . . . Manufacturer . Units . . . Market Share . Was Q2 2015 
1 (1) . . . Samsung . . . .  82.4 M . . 20.5% . . . . . . . ( 23.7% ) 
2 (2) . . . Apple  . . . . . . . 74.8 M . . 18.6% . . . . . . . ( 13.5% ) 
3 (3) . . . Huawei  . . . . . . 30.6 M . . . 7.6% . . . . . . . (   7.7% ) 
5 (4) . . . Lenovo .  . . . . . 22.6 M . . . 5.6% . . . . . . . (   5.3% )
4 (5) . . . Xiaomi . . . . . . .18.6 M . . . 4.6% . . . . . . .  (   5.2% )
7 (7) . . . ZTE  . . . . . . . . . 17.0 M . . . 4.2% . . . . . . . (   4.0% )
8 (8) . . . Oppo . . . . . . . . . 16.0 M . . . 4.0% . . . . . . . (   3.5% )
6 (6) . . . LG  . . . . . . . .  . 15.3 M . . . 3.8% . . . . . . . (   4.2% ) 
10 (10) . . TCL/Alcatel . . . 12.4 M . . . 3.1% . . . . . . . (  2.9% ) 
9 (9) . . Vivo . . . . . . . . . . 10.2 M . . . 2.5% . . . . . . . (   3.4% ) 
Others . . . . . . . . . . . . ..102.3 M
TOTAL . . . . . . . . . . ..   402.0 M

Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Analysis 11 March 2016, based on manufacturer and industry data
This table may be freely shared

So there you go. Another year is done. The race is pretty well over. Now the interesting item for 2016 is how will Apple's iPhone Nano do. If priced to sell, it could actually propel Apple into more sales growth. Meanwhile Samsung's warnings of stalled sales could have these two going head-to-head by the end of the year. Theoretically we might see a race for top dog in 2017. But perhaps the more interesting play is Huawei, can it keep growing there at number 3, and rise up to challenge the two.

But as I've warned back in 2014, this race was done and dusted. The exciting dramatic parts of the race are gone. Now its a box-mover's race for the handset brands and Android rules the OS on the most popular consumer gadget ever sold. What kind of level should we see in smartphone sales this year? About 1.6 Billion should be the sales level for the year. So don't let anybody tell you there isn't strong growth in this market, its only that the hypergrowth stage has passed.

Comments

[Paul]

Good numbers!

If I would be Google I would start to be really worried by the rise of no-Google-services-and-apps-in-home-market phone manufacturers, a.k.a. Chinese phone manufacturers which sells in China Android smart phones by default without Google services/apps, which now have worldwide a combined smartphones market share in 2015 of ~32%. From this point of view, actually, now the best ally of Google is Samsung.
When no-Google-services-and-apps-in-home-market phone manufacturers will start to achieve a critical mass in world wide market share (e.g. ~50%?) they might start slowly to "convert" other markets/countries (e.g. India?) to no-Google-services-and-apps-by-default on Android phones.

Android has a bright future it is just the the Google-apps-and-services might end up not being the default ones on a very long term.

[Winter]

To complete the picture, I have estimated the forth quarter OS numbers using Tomi's earlier numbers.

4Q 2015 OPERATING SYSTEM MARKET SHARES
1 Android . . . . . 323.5 M . . . . 80.5%
2 iOS . . . . . . . . . . 74.8 M . . . . 18.6%
3 Windows Phone . 3.7 M . . . . . 0.9%
TOTAL . . . . . . . . 402.0 M

4Q 2014 OPERATING SYSTEM MARKET SHARES
1 Android . . . . . 288.4 M . . . . 76.4%
2 iOS . . . . . . . . . . 74.5 M . . . . 19.7%
3 Windows Phone . 11.2 M . . . . .3.0%
TOTAL . . . . . . . . . 377.4 M

[Jozo]

@Paul - I believe that those will not do anything to upset Google too much - for now. So for the "west" they will offer Google Android, developing world is other story as you pointed out. As the developed world is much bigger numbers, I agree that long term this is big threat to Google.

[Paul]

@Jozo

> I believe that those will not do anything to upset Google too much - for now.

Exactly, "for now". For now, they are building momentum by playing by the rules ...

> So for the "west" they will offer Google Android,

I agree.

> developing world is other story as you pointed out.
> As the developed world is much bigger numbers,
> I agree that long term this is big threat to Google.

I agree.

For Nokia always the USA has been the weak (and blind?) spot and exactly from there came the biggest existential threat to them (which started a tsunami which basically killed Nokia phones).
For Google it looks like the weak spot (and blind?) spot is China (from point of view of Google-apps-and-services-by-default on Android).

[Christoph]

Why do you say that Ubuntu quit the race? Okay, Canonical's partners sell these phones only in homeopathic doses, but I haven't heard yet that Mr. Shuttleworth threw in the towel ...

[RickO]

So BBK (parent Co. of Oppo, Vivo and OnePlus and maybe others) with their multi-level global marketing strategy, it must be working for them, but is it sustainable. Will the bottom 10 out of the top 15 be for ever swapping places. Will this year be iPhones worse nightmare.

[abdul muis]

Is there anyone here think that last year Snapdragon 810 fiasco have to do with weak sales of android, and this year will be different?

[Michael]

The sums in your second table "2015 FULL YEAR OPERATING SYSTEM MARKET SHARES" seem to be misaligned: The 2014 value is in the 2015 column, and I don't know what is going on with the remaining totals, but they don't add up.

[cornelius]

In addition to Michael's question, why the total number of phones sold in the OEM table is different than the number of phones sold in the OS table? Did they sell phones without an OS?

[cornelius]

OK, sorry, the total number has been fixed.

[Catriona]

What will be interesting to me is how Apple prices the new iPhone that it is releasing on the 21st. Everyone seems to be expecting a $450 phone to replace the iPhone 5S, but I think the so-called iPhone SE will be $549 at launch, and that Tomi will be giving another one of his "what were they thinking?" rants about how they are missing an opportunity to grow the market share.

The iPhone SE supposedly has an A9. While it (probably) lacks 3D Touch, at $450 it might draw too many sales away from the iPhone 6S. Will people really view the larger screen and 3D Touch as worth an extra $200? Maybe they'll split the difference and price it at $499 for the 16GB and $599 for the 64GB version. That way they can still offer the iPhone 5S (still at an official MSRP of $450 but with authorized incentives) until September when they quietly discontinue it with the launch of the new iPhone (which may or may not be called the iPhone 7).

[cornelius]

@Wayne
Apple is like Trump. Never underestimate the idiocy of the iSheep. They will always buy Apple, no matter how much Apple charges them for inferior devices. Apple can abuse their users in any possible way and the users will ask for more abuse.

[khim]

Actually Google is obliged to publish AOSP. For one more year, at least.

That was the "concession" Chinese government demanded when they approved sale or Motorola to Google.

Well... it looks like Chinese government understood the problem but not the scope.

I doubt all these non-Google manufacturers would be ready to pick up the gantlet in a year if Google would decide that it does not want to play AOSP game by then.

[cornelius]

@Wayne
Quote: "But it's not that Apple customers are like Trump voters....it's that Apple Haters are like Trump Haters."
The fact that Apple Haters are like Trump Haters doesn't mean that Apple customers aren't like Trump voters. And I agree that Apple Haters are like Trump Haters in the sense that they both have valid, objective reasons to hate Apple.

[cornelius]

and/or Trump

[CorrectionsForYou]

@Tomi
"Off by 1.3 points of market share" about Apple? Let me quote yourself to you:

"next year powered mostly by this model range, the iPhone market share continues to fall to something near 12%."

That's your own iPhone 6 review.

http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2014/09/lets-discuss-the-iphone-6-models-apple-now-in-me-too-mode-only-following-the-leaders.html

[cornelius]

@Wayne
I didn't say that Apple customers are idiots. Most of them are not. I said that buying iPhones is idiotic, which is true. If you ask a typical iPhone owner why he chose an iPhone in most cases they won't be able to give you a single reason why they bought an iPhone (apart from the fact that they want to be cool, or that Steve Jobs is Jesus, or that they want to look like they are richer than they really are - all these are idiotic reasons)

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

I do agree that Apple had an absolutely stunning great year in 2015.

I'm not convinced their future is too bright, however. I still believe their best chances of succeeding in the future is to make another iPhone-esque product, that is, a product that enters a new market and shows what everyone else should've done all along. Except this time the hunt should not be for profits, but for market share.

The watch is not it - it's an expensive toy for iPhone users. Nothing more. It will survive as long as there is hype, but like Sarah Palin there is no substance.

The TV is not it, either - Sony and Microsoft both have a vastly superior offering, and would have no problem expanding on a TV platform, with a more open strategy than Apple can hope to match.

The car might be it - but again there are dark clouds on the horizon.

In mobile, Apple is stuck between a rock and a hard place - The premium segment is won and will rapidly shrink the coming years, to maybe say 200-230M units or even less. If Apple keeps dominating then the premium segment will decline even further to the point of maybe 100M a year (since being stuck with a premium differing platform will not help them when the other 90% are using Android).

Meanwhile, Apple is known as *the* quality product company that never compromises with quality - so it cannot release cheaper versions of it's phone, either. Because that would mean they actually *do* compromise with quality. That phone will also eat up their profits like hotcakes.

So, Apple will do what every american company worth their salt will do - kick that can down the street to appease the shareholders, what else? :)

[Catriona]

How did Trump get into a smartphone thread?

[cornelius]

@Catriona It's my fault. Trump is everywhere :-)